The Wolf Of All Streets - Wall Street Panic As Bitcoin Holds Strong - Bottom Confirmed? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: June 2, 2025

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone, and James Lavish on this week’s Macro Monday as we break down the chaos in traditional markets. Stocks and treasuries are selling off hard — is this the signal that Bitcoin has finally bottomed? We dive into what’s really driving the market and where crypto fits into the storm. Don’t miss this one! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 James Lavish: https://twitter.com/jameslavish Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #MacroMonday The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Trade war rhetoric is ramping up once again and of course markets are feeling it but not as much. Bitcoin, Bitcoin still consolidating just a few percent below the all time high and there seems to be tremendous optimism still that Bitcoin is going to return beyond the all time high. We had a great time in Vegas last week. Mike was sorely missed so it's good to have the whole crew back together today. Mike, James, and Dave here for yet another epic macro Monday. Let's go. As I said last week, Dave, James and I had been trumped to Macro Monday on a Wednesday in person in Vegas and Mike, you were sorely missed.

It was, if it had been planned, we would have loved to get you out there, but it was that morning we decided, hey, can we get together for recording? It was a lot of fun though. It was like the eights, where it was recorded in front of a live studio audience. They used to say that before all the shows. So we had a lot of hardcore fans there. My biggest takeaway from Vegas is that you guys are all

huge celebrities now. Yeah, my wife calls it a micro-celebrity when in a certain place. Although it was good to see a lot of the people who watched the show. Yeah, my wife calls it a micro celebrity, you know, when in a certain place, although it is, it is it was good to see a lot of the people who watch this show. So all of you who who did come up to me and say hello or, you know, whatever, I appreciated it. And I had a lot of really good conversations with a lot of the people who watch so it's all it's all good. It's awesome. Yeah, I got to walk before with Dave and I saw at least 50 people come up to him.

And most people that said hello, the first thing he said is we love Mac or Monday. Love it. So yeah, it's definitely a high point. It was great. It was a great, you know, just affirmation. What we're doing every single week kind of matters and it's important to people. So next time the four of us are going out there

with a plan, but now we got to start the actual show and Mike, that of course starts at the morning meeting. So what are you looking at? Well, first of all, for macro money, it's I got to thank you, Scott. It's you're the engine behind this. You started, you run and you do it. So you deserve all the credit.

And thank you for having us. I think we're a great group. I'll play contrarian certain times when I feel contrarian. But from the morning meeting, our chief economist, Anna Wong, pointed out she expects the number non-farm payroll to be about 96,000 or lower, but weaker than expected expects unemployment to pick up around 4.3%. She's quite worried that if we get a lower, weaker number than expected, that'll be a bit of a red flag.

She's pointed out a few things about the tariffs baseline. I guess Chris Walther gave a speech this week and will be 15% in the longer term, and she kind of agrees with that. Going over to IRA Jersey and interest rates. One thing he's pointed out is you hear about a lot of this de-dollarization and lack of demand for US treasuries from foreign entities. He's pointed out the last few auctions show the opposite. There's decent amount of demand from foreigners.

He said this quote is there's few alternatives to US treasuries, particularly at these yields. Thinks the long end's pan, they still expect the short end to lead, more of a bull steepening, particularly if we get weaker economic inflation. And Jillian Wolf, who's filling in for Gina Martin-Adams today,

and equity has pointed out that the signs of US rallies running out of steam, US pumped up near the highs, Canada, Mexico have taken off and made new highs, they're at markets. But she says, breath is weak, little to look forward to, stocks and bonds and the market regime showing negative indications. And most indicators for stocks from her are in a red zone. For me, hearing that from our equities team, that's still kind of strange because they've been so bullish for so long and rightly so. Our FX strategist, Audrey Chill Freeman, started out with broad dollar weaknesses resumed.

I take that as part of reason I'm still bullish gold. Well, not so much bullish gold, so I gold to continue to rally. And I'm going to point out the same thing I point out in gold, is everybody's a dollar bear now that makes her uncomfortable and typically as a commodities person, we all know that when everybody's on the same side of the boat, you get a bit uncomfortable. And then I tilted over to the keyword I've been using and I'm scared to use it, it's the word scary.

Now that's one thing you learn as a strategist, you put that in the headline, you get decent amount of hits, but it's just a fact of what's happening with gold. It's quite scary to me what gold is implying if it stays at these levels it is now versus the boomer commodity index. If we end the year where we are now, certainly at the end of the month, it's the highest ever versus the boomer commodity index. Yes, we only go back to 1960 on that, so 60 years of data. I look at the gold versus silver, more apples to apples, it's still at 100.

The highest we ever ended the year was around 93 and 2020 was an example of that. So to stay these levels, what's it gonna take for gold to do that? And then I, so I pointed out crude oils probably had pretty good resistance on $65 a barrel, last year's low, sure it's bouncing, but the key thing I'm still concerned and looked at and worrying and worried that might have been peaking

is that Bitcoin to gold ratio with implications that it's very simple. Everything to me for gold makes sense if the US stock market rolls over this year and the consensus for a 10% gain turns out to be a loss. Well, it's just strange that the stock market remains relatively elevated while gold has done what it has, which is just very disjointed, right? Because gold, as you said, everybody I think would agree that gold going up like this should be offering a stark warning, but everything keeps going up alongside it. Except of course the dollar, which just put in its fifth monthly red candle in a row.

It's pretty slow. It was at 110, the DXY, five months ago. So I mean, Dave, how do we parse all of this, right? Because it really doesn't make sense when you take a look at where each asset is trading. Actually I think it does make sense. That's the funny part. I mean, you know, look, the dollar versus other fiat currencies is as a unit, fiat currencies are going down because their governments are printing more

of them, every one of them except for Germany. And Germany is not exactly as pristine as it used to be with their most recent deficit. But the eurozone certainly as a total is not all that far off of where the US is in terms of debt to GDP. You print more of something than anything priced in that something is going to stay elevated or go higher. In the case of gold, it's pristine. There is no earnings.

There's no issues with it, whereas the corporate world is going to have earnings impacted by supply chain users such as China threatening that we went back on our recent renegotiated pause and they're going to not participate and do things to impact our supply chains. That's going to hurt stocks. The only place where, and in fact, when you talk about ratios, you're going to gold silver, gold silver ratio is a pristine indicator of gold's monetary value. And I'll keep using that because that is what it means. You could call it anything that you wanna call it,

but that is what it means. Because silver has is, yes, you can have silver in jewelry and you can do silver for decorative purposes, but silver is an industrial metal. There is very little gold industrial use. I mean, yeah, I am gold plated connoisseurs, I guess, but it's not terribly important. But that's the monetary value.

Meanwhile, in the world of crypto, it is not that surprising. If you look at X stablecoins, Bitcoin dominance is more or less the indicator of Bitcoin's monetary value vis-a-vis the value of all things that will be in the future when we have a digital economy. And so I don't find it crazy to see Bitcoin dominance surging when gold dominance is surging. Meanwhile, when you have the denominator, such as the dollar, and really all of fiat being debased, it's helping stocks because what are they going to need to do? They're going to and we can talk about other stuff. I'll let James go into that but what's going to happen? What are policymakers going to do? Policymakers are, in the words of James's partner, going to do the big print.

And so you know if Mike is right and we see unemployment starting to pick up, I actually, I actually don't know whether that is true right now. We'll see. I'm always skeptical of these measures because it doesn't look like that's what's happening. And that's what I've seen a wide range of economists talk about this. But I do think it's inevitable. And I do think that weakness is going to result in probably in rate cuts also, but certainly in liquidity being injected into the market.

That's really the question. Yeah, it's interesting. I want to go back to what Mike was saying about the bonds though, and maybe I can share this. We are seeing some buyers, but we're not seeing them on the long end of the curve, and that's the issue. That's one of the articles is that the 30 is not big. Yeah, you can see this. And just taking a peek here, the 30 year yields, they're just not in line

with the rest of the curve. And in fact, all the way to the 30, even trading kind of like risk assets, which is just insane because these are the 10 years, the global reserve asset. So it is literally the benchmark bond of the world as we've talked about many times. But that is this is something that that that has to be recognized and the percent is realizing this too. And so now you've got you've got investors at very large shops talking about the question of whether they're going to end up you know canceling 30-year auction or dialing them really way, way, way back because there's just not

demand there. And there won't be demand there until we get through this path of uncertainty. One of the biggest pieces of uncertainty, as we all know, is this tax package. How big is it going to be? How much are they going to change it? How much are they going to pile onto it?

And just how much are they going to change it, how much are they going to pile onto it, and just how much are they going to affect the deficits, as well as where are they going to put that limit on the debt now? Are they going to raise it four trillion? They're going to raise it five trillion or more? I mean, right now it's stuck at 36.1 trillion or whatever it was right at the end of the year, just out of, that's just the function of the,

when they postponed the debt ceiling from a year and a half ago, they decided that we're not gonna have a ceiling going forward, it'll just, when it expires, that extension expires, it'll just be where the debt is at that point, which was 36.1 trillion. So are we gonna be at a $42 trillion limit? How much is going to be piling on there?

And how much are investors worried about the long-term inflation impacts of these continued fiscal deficits? And I think the answer is pretty concerned. So the question is, where can this 30-year go? Where does the 10-year go? Does it go to 5%? Does it go to 5.5%? That would be, I think 5.5% would be pretty catastrophic. The 30-year could easily go to 5.5%, 6%. And that's the question. It's already been at 5.5% recently. So that's the question that we have to answer. And you're going to watch traders and investors exactly turn their backs on the 30-year. And that's a concern. So that just prevents Besant from terming out out the debt meaning moving the average maturity of our debt out from

T-bill to towards the you know the 10-year and He's just gonna be unable to do that for a while And and so I think that's a that's a big consideration and and something that I'm watching You know the question though and and really if you look at it and you and you pull back up what I am sharing here Scott Yeah the reality is that 10-year to 30-year gap is kind of an average right now. So that should be an alarm bell for people to realize that this 30-year could really blow out a lot further, a lot further in the yields. So people need to realize that this is a risk asset today.

This is not something you just put in your portfolio and it's going to be fine. This could be volatile for years. I have a question, James. Yeah. Do we have any sense, we know that a lot of the banking industry in the United States is along the tenure. We know that obviously because the VFTP, the thing that we talked about at Nauzian last year, the last bazooka that the Fed had to pull out. Did they hold

any relevant amount of 30 years? No, the 30 years held by institutions, this is really a pension fund and endowment instrument, across the world, not just here. And it's a trade for hedge funds. So that's the question is how much are they requiring to be paid for their future obligations, especially in the pension funds? No, I understand that and I get it. I'm just wondering, my wondering is if there's,

what would be the actual underlying damage other than some hedge funds floating to the top of the pool, kind of looking like if the 30-year blew out to 6%, 7%. What would that mean? I mean, from a pension fund perspective, that would be catastrophic. Exactly. From their actuarial assumptions, and you'd see another round of pensions that are oops,

you know, and we've had a few of those, you know, starting with Orange County in my mind. But I don't think that that's really the kind of contagion effect. But if it's in the banking system, that then it is a contagion effect. That's why I was curious. Well, the contagion effect would be much like the UK guilt crisis, right? Where you have pension funds that just all of a sudden have massive holes in their balance sheet because of this or in their investment funds because of this.

So that's what you're concerned about. That would be, I mean, that would have to be a very sharp and quick move. But I'm not as concerned about that as much as just, I just don't think the 30 years what you want to be holding right now. I think that the risk of volatility on that, on the yields to the upside is pretty high,

especially because we still, we have continued headline risk here from all of the tariff, the tariff negotiations, you know, whatever that may be, you still have those headline risks. And we just don't know exactly what's going to happen in the economy. Like Mike was saying, like, where, where are earnings going to go? Have they really bottomed out? Goldman Sachs is saying that the earnings have, have bottomed out, and we're kind of fair value for the S&P, which was very interesting to read this morning. So are we going to get into a period of stagflation or not? And then, you know, we have headline risk every single day. And then finally, and on that, you know, the volatility is, is just, is dropped. It's, it's, it's completely softened out and that's also concerning. It's always kind of a red flag for all of us

who've been sitting here investing for many years that when you see volatility fall to the floor, that's the time to start buying insurance and getting yourself in order because that means everybody is optimistic and invested. So it's just something, it's just another data point that you oughta probably be looking at. But I'd like to hear what Mike has to say about that.

Great piggyback, gotta piggyback on that. Cause everything you described to me about the 30-year to me is a classic buy single. I've been wrong, two years now. I'm thinking, okay, we're gonna get that deflation. I'm seeing it everywhere in commodities. At some point, the 30-year is gonna be the next big trade. They mean that you just take TLT versus GLD.

It's never been cheaper. OK, got that. And let's look at May 22nd. That was a key day. That's the day Bitcoin put its all-time high in at 112,000. That's also the day that the 30-year reached 5.15%. That's the highest yield since 2007, within a few basis points.

They're the same trade right now Bitcoin in the 30 year And to me this is part of that trade now this wealth creation Speculation machine that's leading everything is telling us it's showing us by going up this much It's showing the limits of the inflation that's created that the Fed can't easy anymore and we're tilting towards that next big trade Which I think is going to be the third year. You got to get thrown down on the mat I've been that for a while, took a while in gold. But to me, that's where it's all tilting. I just have to piggyback on that

because I think now everything is like you said, volatility is low, 19 VIX. Do you want to get overweight risk assets? I think that high in Bitcoin probably proved it for a little bit, probably not. When it was at 60, sure you do. But now we're also at that stage, yeah, getting towards summer, stock market's unchanged.

It'll be fine, we're going to get 10% this year, we're great. It's a complete assumption now, which is to me the risk that we go the other way. And it's a key thing now, so I like what you said, Dave, was policymakers will do the big print. And this is also a big takeaway, I think, from Scott's interview this weekend with Jeff Booth, who wrote The Price Tomorrow. It's just everybody assumes we're going to get more inflation. It's going to be wrong. We've already had the inflation. We've had the biggest inflation most of our lifetimes on the biggest extraneous event in our lifetime is the biggest print. Now we're tilting towards deflation. Now you see that in gold and crude oil, crude oil going down, gold going up. You see it in China clearly doing just what Japan did 30 years ago. And there's one key thing holding

everything up. And that's that US stock market to me That's why this to me the next big trade is Bitcoin goes down Also the US housing market and that's everything is rolling over. I mean, yeah We will everything is rolling over just the thing I saw on LinkedIn this morning all these for sale signs in Orlando This is a normal cycle that always happens and it's just been delayed. The recession we did not get in 2023, it's going to come. It's just a question of when. Do we have a catalyst for this? Well, maybe the tariffs and L-steering, sure. But now it's all dependent. Everything is dependent. Beta has to stay strong. And I know Dave doesn't like when I say that, so I'll just stay the S&P 500.

S&P 500 just drops 10%. Those are the dominoes. And to me, that's the next big trade. And right now, volatile low. Yeah. Why risk on the biggest risk? So I'll end with one thing. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index is down 10% this year and gold's up 30%. I think that's going to continue to wide. Well, let's do this real quick, Scott.

Really quick, James. I just have one more question, which is, Mike, you say, and we've talked about this, but S&P just needs to go down 10% and we'll see, but we just did 20. So does that mean that the S&P needs to go down 30? Exactly. That's my point is that's from a trader's standpoint, who it's the point where everybody just assumes it goes down and comes right back out. That's going to change. It goes down and stays down and puts in highs that last for years, not just quarters. This is what we're so overdue for. And that's what I'm pointing out. That to me is what gold is predicting. That long bond going above 5%, that's not a good sign with crude oil collapsing. That shows deflationary forces and people pushing against the bond. So

that's the point, Scott, is virtually every single single trader has been trading cryptos and stock market for 15 years Have not seen the real world where we go down and stay down and to me This is where it gets the year get started We've just gotten a bounce so if we can just stay here a couple of months and keep beta and stock market keep going up That's wonderful for the end of the year up a couple percent. That's wonderful But the optionality is that hundred percent of the gains at SMB 500 total returns had since 2019 which is way historically Amaboration just giving back 10 or 20 percent of that the dominoes tumble to me That's what it makes sense for gold to stay at these levels and even get above 3,500 an ounce

So I think look I know on the well I think I know James the monetarist as well But as Milton Friedman's used to say, inflation is always a monetary phenomena. The problem with that statement is that there's not two types of inflation, but there are two types of inflation. Conceptually, it's easy to think about it. Stuff you buy and consume, i.e. consumer inflation and asset inflation.

And the consumer inflation is impacted by several things. It's impacted by productivity, which is why technology in real terms is dramatically cheaper than it used to be. I don't care whether it's a computer or a car or whatever in terms of that, but of course some of the stuff that goes into it is not impacted by productivity. Whereas something like education is a hundred percent not impacted by productivity. If anything, it's gone the opposite because of the extra administration, medical care, you know, some of the tech should probably have gone down, et cetera. I could go on a diatribe forever, but the reality is,

you cannot argue with the fact that we, that we as a society are constantly printing more money every major current country is is in deficit and so more money is coming in that's a denominator that is why gold is outperforming and gold could continue to outperform I mean I was I got a quick conversation with Josh Mann a couple weeks ago I'm not gonna mention his hyperbolic price target for gold but he's a massive gold bull right now, right? And as a result of that, you have to ask yourself the same question.

And I'll repeat what I said in the beginning. So when you start looking at how to parse all of these things together, understand that gold is the primary beneficiary of monetary, you know, of basic monetary value. Why? Because central banks trust gold. They, you know, corporations, in pension funds, individuals, institutions are dipping their little pinky toe

into Bitcoin. And as that little pinky toe becomes, you know, a few toes and then the foot, then Bitcoin will do what gold is doing. I have no idea at this point, you know, in this environment where we have such incredible uncertainty on the global trade front. I mean, we could go into a global depression. There's no two ways about that. That is possible. Is it likely? No. You know, do I think most of the stuff is just posturing? Yes. But, you know, I also wouldn't have said that Ukraine would launch a major offensive deep into the heart of Russia where the stock market is saying, whatever, so they destroyed 40 nuclear bombers. That is not a small thing.

Geopolitical risk is generally something that, what's the first thing to react to geopolitical risk? Gold. Why is it up 2% today? Well, because Ukraine just bombed Russia. And you know, that's a big deal. So we have a lot of stuff going on. There's a lot of cross currents here. As far as the Galaxy crypto index goes, look, I think that all coins are going to go the same as tech stocks. I really do. I think that that correlation is high, will stay high. I think Bitcoin's correlation is

more relative to what's gone in Bitcoin. I mean we are literally at the same level we were at you know last week and the week before and the week before that where you know whether or not we stay in the trading range. I'm paying attention to this because I thought that it was a complete joke when I said it. You know I said you know when I when I said like three weeks ago that that's too bad, you'll never get a chance to see sub $100,000 Bitcoin again. Yet through all of this, we still haven't seen sub $100,000 Bitcoin.

I said it was a 101. Now we're at 104, but we've been trading. Yeah, we made that quick bursty high to 112. That's nothing in percentage terms. I mean, think about it. It's less than a 10% move. That is for Bitcoin, not even remotely close to a meltup. If there's one thing I got out of the Bitcoin conference,

it's consistently that there are a lot of OGs who are using their Bitcoin proceeds to fund their lives. And so I talked to enough of them to know that that the dynamic is Bitcoin treasury companies and other investors, you know, scooping up Bitcoin and a lot of the Bitcoin OG is continuing to cash out and fund their lives. That has been going on. That has been relentless. It will continue to go on. But what does that mean?

That means that volatility in Bitcoin, specifically Bitcoin, is cushioned because they'll stop selling as it drops. And as a result, because there's no catastrophic need for it, there's no tax season, there's no anything right now. So the summer is likely to be buffered. That's why last year it was buffered, unless there are some buyers that come in that lose patience or some of the sellers stop. As far as altcoins and risk assets go, it really is the question of the denominator, right?

If all that money has to go someplace, where does it go? Mike is saying people will buy bonds. I don't think anyone's gonna buy bonds for 30 years. I think you may buy bills, but they're not buying bonds. They're not buying 30 year bonds. And the government is trying to convince them to put all that money that's getting printed into them. And so that's the fundamental thing that's happening here.

But the geopolitical side is not trivial and the market is almost ignoring it, which I find fascinating. James. Well, I think also, you know, when I wrote about this weekend, look, Besson knows this and Jamie Dimon knows this. The US government needs pockets of liquidity

to park all these bonds. And you're right, Dave, I just don't see that demand. We saw a weak demand the last 30 year auction. We've got another auction, what? June 12th, is that right, Mike? Something like that. So for the 30 year. And we'll see how that goes.

And we'll see if the Treasury decides to start dialing it back. This is not stuff that happens just overnight, by the way. This is the, these are sliding scales and this all kind of glacial. But we could see the Treasury start to dial back the, the, the offerings there. But one thing they could do and work with the Fed on this is to, and this is what I wrote about this weekend, is to revise the supplementary leverage ratio. And that means that, you know, this is what ISDA wrote about,

for the listeners who didn't read the newsletter and who don't know what I'm talking about, ISDA is the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. They basically set the rules and the framework and, you know, the boilerplate agreement for swaps and derivatives. Swaps and derivatives are just legal contracts. Okay. So for everybody to understand that these are contracts that typically hedge funds and

shadow banking use to create leverage in the system. All right. So they came out with a recommendation that the Fed remove the supplementary leverage ratio inclusion of treasuries to that calculation. So banks wouldn't have to include them as risk assets. Why does that matter? It matters because banks can then pile on treasuries, add infinitum, and not have it negatively affect their ratios for risk, which means that they can just continue to add them. Now, it also begs the question though, why are they included in the first place

if they're supposed to be riskless, right? Well, the obvious answer is they're not riskless. We all know that. We've seen that over the last number of years, how a number of not just community banks, but pension funds and endowments were upended by, by that, that massive rise in, in interest rates, in yield. So basically, what's important about this is that Jamie Dimon came out and echoed the, is the recommendation last week. He said, We've, we've got to do something about this. And I think that the supplementary

leverage ratio is a good starting point. And the, and the whole premise is to just remove treasuries so banks can add them to their balance sheet and hold them without, without penalty. And that is a massive, massive pocket of liquidity, pool of liquidity right there. And so right there, if you wanna solve this, I mean, Besant and Powell ought to be looking at this very closely right now and figuring out how to do this in a way that doesn't trip alarm bells,

but adds confidence to the bond market and stability to it. My personal opinion, but that's really a big, that's a big stepping stone, that could be a very large stepping stone in front of us. Well, that would help. That would be Mike's case in terms of why the 30-year would rally is because banks would pile in.

I don't wanna digress, Mike, if you wanna talk about. I want to mention that it's a bit of a digression, but it's an important topic for us. But I'd like to hear what Mike has to add. Yeah, that's right. Mike, you're muted in case you're talking. So it brought back a memory. I remember being on the phones with clients in New York in 1992. And I was bullish bonds. Mike, why are you bullish bonds? And I'm like, because of deflation. We're gonna not, it was still too much inflation

we're gonna do towards deflation or disinflation. The number one reason for yields to go down is disinflation or deflation, bar none, everything else. Who's gonna buy it? It doesn't matter. That always comes out later. That helped me get promoted to New York in 93 because I was right. And I've been wrong on this one for two years.

So maybe I need to go back to trading pits, which are gone, which is an example of things have changed. But that's the key point is it's the key thing that really struck me about listening to Jeff Booth and Scott and everybody who's buying Bitcoin for their strategic reserves and anything. I'll point out one thing like you did, the melting dollar and inflation of what's... They're looking at past performance. It's the wrong thing to do. The time to buy Bitcoin was when it's at 10,000 in 2020 and Saylor got in it, and we're doing the massive biggest money pump in history we've had that now we're heading towards the other way. Now it's happened in crude oil. Yes, okay, it's not the same. Dave

always points it out, but it's happening everywhere. It's a way it always works. That cycle towards disinflation or deflation. One key thing, again, it's a housing market. US stock market holds it. Yes, it is ticked down 10%. Nothing in the big picture. That's the deflation that gets at bond yields from 5% to 3%.

It just happens. It's probably gradually and suddenly. Yes, it's been gradually for a long time, it's not happening, and again, the S&P five runs up on the year. I mean, there's no reason to, it sets the point. That's what's gotta change, and if it keeps going up, we're not gonna get that normal deflation

from the inflation. Is there a world where the demand comes to the shorter durations though, and never makes it back to the 30s, sort of as James was talking about there? Like, on's actually about on actually or you know notes do well but it's the shorter duration because there's sort of a panic and people don't want the over exposure to the longer end in a current world exactly right now when you can buy risk assets and they own go up when you can put Bitcoin in your treasuries and US President said they're gonna go up yes why would you touch touch a long bond that's my point

we're at the point where there should be sign when they're yelling. And when you hear about treasuries adding systematic risk, when they're supposed to be just running their business to their treasuries via Bitcoin, that's scary. I tilt the other way and I say, there should be buying long bonds partly because you always get the return back

and you'll have the little bit of that protection when we get the normal correction in equity prices. That's my point. We're at the point now also, when's the last time you turn on the tape, you didn't hear about inflation and the deficit and things. It's pretty extreme now, which is good. That's what you need to hear. That's when you're supposed to be waving them in.

Yes, I've been early, but when people say it doesn't matter, it does matter. It's every single place you see now, it's mentioned even, Besten's mentioned, no, we're not going to default in US debt, just the fact they had to say that's a problem. To me, this is pretty extreme now. That's why I mentioned May 22nd, 5.15% in that 30 year and Bitcoin at 112. We hope those aren't enduring peaks. I think they might be.

And the number one catalyst for that is for not to be enduring peaks is US stock market has to go up. To be fair, I know you keep saying that you're wrong early on bonds, which is accurate, but you're correct on gold, and gold and bonds have just not had the same relationship that they tend to have had in the past. Exactly. Gold is trading in the mid 3000s, so the signal is correct. So the ratio's done well. If you're an investor and you overweight, risk off assets like gold in treasuries, treasuries always get your coupon back, depending on how much you leverage it.

Gold, you're getting, you know, it's just getting a little scary. It's overweighing some of those portfolios for people like me who are underweight risk assets and looking at just risk off assets. And again, though, this is a year that gold's up 30% and the stock market's doing great. It doesn't make sense in the long term. If it does, that's wonderful. Dave points out, yes, there's a lot of geopolitical risk, but I think in a bigger picture, if we're going to look back and say, yeah, the stock market got to two times GDP and the most expensive versus the rest of the world and stayed that way and it didn't matter, great, then that's not going to be good for gold. But I think we're going to look back at this from history and say, it did matter and it

did revert. And that was the deflation. It's very similar inklings to the deflation we had in and that was the deflation. It's very similar inklings to the deflation we had in 1930s, the deflation we had in early 2000s in the US, in the 1990s in Japan and that's all predicated one thing. You get that expensive, we get two times GDP and market cap, it's all that matters and we saw that recently. Every time Trump is emboldened with tariffs, stock market's up. When he pulls back is when the stock market pushes him to push back a little bit.

It's just, it's all that matters, unfortunately. I just want to point out something, Scott, if you can share my screen here. If you, look, here's the problem, Mike, of what you're talking about. If you bought the long bond, you bought the 30 here, here in the 20th century. That was what you're supposed to be selling, of course.

I know. But just for the sake of argument, what we've seen, what every single trader, every single investor in our world, everybody who's alive, has basically have experienced that if you bought the 30 year, you've made a ton of money as we went down to zero-interest rate policy. Man, you have made so much. Look at the, look at how those

yields have contracted, right? However, now, if you bought the 30-year over the anywhere in the last 5 years, you've lost money. And you've got to hold that to maturity to get that money back. That's the problem. That is the issue, because this has such, this has such high interest rate and duration risk. That's the issue that investors are realizing and they're recognizing. Could this go to 6%? Sure, absolutely.

It could absolutely go to 6%. That would be what you call, Mike, a mean reversion, if you're looking at this chart. But that's the issue with the third year. And that's why traders are gonna stay at the 10 year part of the belly or the shorter because they know that the interest rate risk is so much lower there.

And as you've pointed out correctly and I fully agree with you, they're getting paid to own those right now. And that's the issue, that's what I see. So here's the key thing about that chart and this may be, and Dave's gonna jump on it. And one thing is people assume that rate, that trend in lower rates is over.

Yet you look at the rest of the world, it's clearly accelerating. Looks so good. And that second largest economy, this is a 30 year. In China, it's 1.9%. In Japan, it's less. In Germany, it's less. And they're all heading lower. Why? They're facing

tears. So you're pointing out that this dichotomy is going to continue where the US wealth creation machine is just going to continue to what it's doing as we face this thing. That's my point is, I looked at it since we got to 4%. That to me is when I've been saying too long now, we're supposed to be buying long bonds. I've been wrong. But then again, this is the key thing is that is only staying up strong and highlight that because we created so much Wealth and liquidity inflation by pumping the system with money. We've learned that lesson of inflation now the Fed The Fed can't ease and we pushed the president out of presidency we realize Oh people who vote don't like inflation because their money can't keep up.

So that's my point is the normal cycle is for this to tilt backwards and people who are buying Bitcoin expectation inflation are trading the last trade. They should trade the next trade, which is what I'm pointing out. The deflation of the 30s and the 90s in Japan and the 30s in the US is what we are tilting towards in the rest of the world's Japan I'm sorry China's already helping heading that way. Just look at BYD's are cutting prices 30% now and there's massive supply these things and it's Overbuilding what is it 90? I'd last I heard from a friend of mine who just ex-bark these guys Just came from back from China. I think it's 90 million extra Rental units now in China just that that oversupply is tilting over to the world. And there's one key pillar for everything.

That's my point is what you've seen there is great. It'll stay up and strong as long as US stock market stays strong. So if you're gonna pull up that chart, pull up the same for the Chinese ten-year, the next largest economy. So look at that. Why are you pulling it up? Look at the 10-year JGB, just the 10 year JGB, right? Well, this is that, look, I mean, that's,

it's Mike, the problem is that the whole world is having the same problem. That's the issue. And if the US, if our yields are, have blown out, it's not gonna show me this on this Bloomberg. You can bring it up, Mike, because you know Bloomberg better than me. But look, the issue here is that this is what the world has expected. policy will return at some point here. I agree. But just like Dave is saying that and we were talking about, you're going to have a continued money printing phenomenon because there is no choice. It's not that they've learned their lesson. They're cornered.

In the middle of that chart between 1995 and 1999, look at that period. That was the last time we had a balanced budget. Now if you overlay debt to GDP on this chart, which I don't know, I mean, I'm talking about bonds and maybe I should care about the amount of debt. I mean, God knows if someone was evaluating a human being's credit, they would charge of a higher interest if you know their debt to GDP. If you overlay debt to GDP on this chart, right now a mean reversion would be much closer

to that 1985 through 89 period up towards the 8%. That's what you would expect if you looked at it with debt to GDP, right? And that doesn't even count on funded liabilities because I don't think, you know, I don't think anyone believes we're gonna actually pay, you know, in social security. I don't think anyone believes that we're not gonna

check the unfunded liabilities and see what's gonna happen. I mean, it's gonna be tough when we get to that point, but the entire world has this, is printing money. And to ignore the denominator when you look at these charts is a problem. And that's all I'll say, is the denominator matters and always will. And James, in that little orange spark line, which says add data, type in recession. R-E-C, just type in R-E-C. And okay, and you click on the bottom, it says US recession, go down,

click on that. Yeah, just add in REC and okay, click it on the bottom. It says US recession. Go down, click on that. Yeah, just add the recessions here. Okay, that's what the market's assuming. There's going to be no recession. My point is we're overdue for one of those little magenta lines and that's going to be next big trade. Now we get through that and this is not the time to overweight risk assets like Bitcoin. I pointed out last week was the highest ever versus beta. It's just silly to do that. That's when you're supposed to look at other things or stay away because now you're pricing for perfection. My point is we get that little recession we didn't get in 2023, which is all tilting that way based on a lot

of data. The number one thing though is US stock market going down. That's what happened in Japan in the US in the 30s. You could argue that we did have a recession. You could argue we did have a recession. They could. You could argue we did have a recession. They kind of ignored it and they massage the data to hide it. You could. Sure. I agree with that.

But the point is, my point is once you get that little red line, which we're overdue for, we're into that goal to me is telling us the end game of the US wealth creation machine is over. We got so high in risk assets, two times she defeats, never worked that well in history, housing, cryptos, everything. That's, I think that we all agree on is we need to lose a zero in a lot of these silly cryptos. Once we get through that, wash out the system,

then I think it's time to buy risk assets. We agree, however, that has nothing to do with Bitcoin. That's right. Bitcoin is a higher correlation to cryptos than it does to anything else. Cryptos have higher correlation to Bitcoin. It's the other way around. That's right. So Bitcoin is a higher correlation to cryptos than it does to anything That's the point that that is the point that the single most important point that You gloss over every time Mike is that when Bitcoin when big people make money in Bitcoin They take that money and they plow it in the speculative shit casino Go to the casino that but when they're not making money in Bitcoin, they don't do it and even when they are

There's people you know, you're seeing the whole risk asset versus not. I mean Bitcoin is quickly becoming. I mean if you if you compare just just if we were to time machine we go back a year And you ask yourself a question if is Bitcoin a strategic Store of value the answer a year ago As you know, we had ETFs we were you know, what were we in the 60s or 70s, you know So, you know, we're 60s or 70s for Bitcoin a year. You would have said well, you know we want to see these other things happen and We're seeing those things happen and it matters, right? So every time you talk about gold versus silver, I think it's Bitcoin

versus crypto is silver is, you know, still has some monetary use. And I don't believe Ethereum or anything else has monetary use. But the truth is that you have to think of it in the same way. But, you know, when you talk about recession, if we think we are going to tilt into recession, then you should be buying Bitcoin with both hands. Why? Because if we go into recession, then Powell is going to increase liquidity.

There's no other way to die. I'll take the other side of that trade with you, Dave. If we get a recession, and S&P, I got to show some screens too. So let me just do that. If we get a recession and as our ex, we get the S&P 500 back to 4,000, just where it was a few years ago, we're going to get Bitcoin back to 10,000. That's my base case. That's what I think we're going to know. You got someone to blame here now. It's good.

That's best to have someone to blame. I'm willing to take that risk because to me, let me finish because the risks of not saying this are so much greater. So first of all, we'll talk about the same chart syndrome. This is Bitcoin and Dogecoin. Thank God Dogecoin's back below 30 billion. I think it's going to 30,000.

It's the same chart. Gold, this is Bitcoin, Gold Cross and Dogecoin. They both looks like they're rolling over from that 33 resistance, which we pointed out is very good resistance, Bitcoin, Gold, Dogecoin doing the same thing. And then also the same thing. this is just a 16 correlation between Bitcoin and SB 500 it's point seven zero it's very high if the stock market goes down you know who

to blame I think Bitcoin will go down just as hard or harder like it always has we've only had two up years that's my point since Bitcoin was launched and each time Bitcoin went down a lot more it's different this time is what you're telling me I'm telling you it's probably not going to be enough on a speculation and hubri and things i'm seeing in this space is just Like I said, if they're tempting the market gods, I wish them luck Correlation does not include magnitude. This this chart is insanely wrong From a magnitude perspective. It's just it's a question of periods of time. The one constant during this entire period of time has been more and more deficits.

We are sitting here with, yes, you call it the greatest money pump and we've learned our lesson. Of all the things you've ever said, that is the single most wrong thing that you've ever said. Well, here we have the big, beautiful bill, the Republicans coming in saying, we want to cut. And even there, you're talking about a larger peacetime,

although whether we're gonna stay in peacetime is an interesting question, but the largest peacetime budget deficit, you know, in nominal terms, ever, literally ever. And that's with this mountain of debt is it is something that does matter and there's no way if we start tilting to recession and Consumer inflation starts coming down and it already is if you look at true inflation That the rates are gonna stay where they are and will that prop up risk assets? Maybe I mean people You look at Japan people forget how that market actually rallied and

what levels it was. Their debt to GDP, their market cap to GDP was beyond insane, and you can pull that one up too. But look, we have the same argument every week. You talk about correlations and betas, and I just think that there is a lot here. The policymakers need strong markets. They have been trying, willfully trying, to push inflation into assets and not into consumer goods,

because that is what they need. Whether they'll succeed or not, I don't know. But I do want to mention something that is fascinating here about the supplemental leverage ratio. And I want to go back to it because the one big political battle, the final battle really for Elizabeth Warren and the Anti-Crypto Army is against the stablecoin bill. And their arguments are really, really bad. Actually, they convinced some idiot law professor. And I mean, literally the right one of the worst papers I have ever seen. I mean, I'm sure Austin Campbell has done a better job taking it apart.

But they're missing the fact that community banks, instead of loaning to local businesses, have been buying treasuries. And they did. And that's why they had to be bought out. You get rid of the supplemental leverage ratio, that's all it's going to be. And so we have $6 trillion in deposits that are effectively paying half a percent or less. And the banking association is complaining about the stablecoin, but it will be a problem because it'll give people economic choice. It will be frozen in the system because it takes a lot. It is hard to transfer money right now. It takes three days

for it to actually clear. You know, all the digital transfers unless you do a wire are limited. If they even let you do the wire, let's make it clear. But why are you not let you wire money where you want to? It's yours. It's not yours. If you give it to the bank is no longer yours. Like that's the people coins will change that and change in a very big way all the supply demand dynamics. So why am I mentioning this? Well, they're going to change the supplemental leverage ratio almost certainly that because you're getting a signal when you got, you know, both sides telling you to do it, it will be a big deal. So what happens if the stablecoin bill does finally pass? Well, it

will be very interesting. It will be first of all, be a huge boom to the US dollar. Why? Because it will cement it as the payment vehicle. It will not be good for cryptos who claim to be a money transfer mechanism. And so some of what Mike's saying will be right. It will be great for Bitcoin because it will mean that the average lifestyle of the person who saves in Bitcoin and spends in dollars can now be accelerated when taking all that banking risk out and, you know, et cetera. So it's going gonna be a very interesting set of effects, but the battle that's going on right now is showing you it's the banking system versus what what has been happening and and it's for my markets point of view We can't really comment on it, but it's really important to understand

Why does the supplemental leverage ratio matter? Why are they talking about it? Well, they're fighting the last war, right? They're saying okay, at least in the next six months it's true, banks will buy a lot of treasuries. And that will help. But that will also give Powell cover to do what he needs to do to keep reflating the economy. Every time the one thing you say, Mike, that I just absolutely can't stand is worse than the beta and the 10,000 because you know, stuff is we've learned our lesson. We had the largest pump in history. Well, we did. We had a pandemic and so they pumped money and they have not stopped. And that's the

important point. We still have, you know, trying to bring our federal spending in even inflation adjusted terms back to 2019 levels causes screaming. I mean, you would think, you know, it's like, you know, in the political class, it's causing screaming. Oh my God, we can't go back. Look what will happen. And the truth is that there doesn't seem to be any way to rein the deficit in without, you know, without some bipartisan decision that we need to do that.

And it doesn't seem like any of that's forthcoming. Now, maybe in three and a half years if there's a President Diamond and you can rally moderate Republicans and moderate Democrats, maybe then you could get level-headed people in the room. That was Bill Clinton. That's literally, I mean, a moderate Democrat, but the Democratic Party is not being run by the people who would vote in the primary for Jamie Dynan. They run by the people who vote for President AOC. President AOC means seven to ten million dollar Bitcoin, just so we're clear. So as much as I think it would be terrible for the country, you know,

I think that Biden would have been better for Bitcoin. No, we're just thinking back and simple No. Or Harris. Or Harris. Whoever we had. We're just picking back at simple lessons of these every time. Let me finish one thing. A president empowered by their party to spend that is not a committee that is faceless and nameless and leaving a rudderless ship is a very different thing.

Biden was tilting left, yes, on things like immigration, et cetera, et cetera. But it was still, there wasn't a whole lot of direction coming from the White House a socialist president is a totally different animal so that that's all I only reason I wanted to mention that so we are we are turning Japanese debt to GDP China's doing that already if you just include all the provinces it's the same as government debt and just a simple fact I've learned in this crypto space I've only been in since like 2016 is every time it goes down and I get the messages from people. Oh, it's going to Zero McGlone right about it and I get bullish and every time I get the message

I'm just gonna add a zero and go to a million I get bearish and that's where I am and I'm sticking with it And I just here's what we disagree and I do love that if we get this recession and Bitcoin does not go down a lot more than that's gonna be 500 Here's what we disagree on and I do love that if we get this recession and Bitcoin Does not go down a lot more than that's gonna be 500 That would be a shocker and that to me would flip the whole narrative for the long-term people for right now But treasuries are buying it when they should be buying treasuries Are just adding the systematic risk of this asset just doing what it normally does and correct a lot Dave there was you said you had another topic you wanted to go to that I don't think we ever got there.

The stable coin bill is what I was, just the point of understanding why the supplemental leverage ratio matters because allowing banks to park their money in treasuries instead of loaning it out into the real economy is what's actually happening. I mean, the statistic that I found the most interesting is despite all the hype about community banks, 80% of mortgages are

not serviced by the banking community. It's by capital markets, which tells you that that Warren and her pets in the American bank or actually maybe she's the pet and the American banking lobby are the masters. I don't know who's pulling the strings, but basically what they're saying is a steaming load of self-serving bullshit. And that is effectively what's happening. You guys can laugh, but it's true. There's no way any of the people who are making these arguments would ever have either Austin Campbell or myself on, or better yet, the two of us on to discuss it with them, because they would look like morons.

Because there's no rational argument against a more efficient financial system. There is one argument, and it's been the argument as old as time against an efficient financial system and that's because there are people who make Shit tons of money by the inefficiency of the system despite the fact that it hurts the economy and it hurts everybody else and this has been Something that I've been in automation my entire lifetime I've seen so many stories and I told you I'm writing a book for those who care, you know You can it's gonna be called million dollar frat boys and we're look

I'll start I'm gonna start getting for a mailing list, but I can tell you that there's no difference between automation of equity trading Against you know from NASDAQ market makers in your stock exchange specialists All I could say is a very quick period of time when we went to automation, we saw two things happen We saw trading costs drop by 90% and we saw volumes 10x If you think that having stable coins and having a much more efficient financial system isn't going to cause the velocity by the increase Isn't gonna free money inside the economy and help cement the US dollar Then you're you're you're just dreaming.

You don't understand what is coming. And that is a very big deal that from a macro point of view will matter, but they're still having passed it yet, and we're still fighting it. The final boss is being fought right now, which is a lobby that pays many, many billions of dollars into the honeypot of Washington DC, and we'll see what happens. Well, the basis of what you said, Dave, is it was delightful to see the Trump administration figure that out It's helped him get elected things that we talked about and wrote about Six years ago the base layer for this space was

our treasuries Crypto dollars like to come they finally figured out but now it's swung so far the other way and that's a question I want to ask you so this this tokenization process should accelerate. Just a better way to trade. So we start tokenizing treasuries, get those on chain and tokenizing equities and get those on chain. What happens to all the other BS out there

that's worth $28 billion? And it's a joke. It doesn't get arbed out? Yes, quite a bit of it will and quite a bit of it won't. So it's actually exactly why I said that Bitcoin dominance will continue to go up inside of what's called crypto. But understand what is the biggest two benefits of tokenization? There are two things tokenization does that everybody is ignoring. The first thing it does is it makes every asset truly multi-currency natively and truly global

natively. So it massively increases the demand pool. That's the first thing it does. The second thing it does is it dramatically increases the velocity upon which you can move money around. The things that, you know, people were surprised by the, I'll never forget this, when Silicon Valley bank happened. So I can't believe that money could flee so quickly because we had done things like Zelle and banks. I mean, are you kidding me? You know, it's like money

will become that much more mobile. And so you will see arbitrage this happen. Yes, I agree. I think people will, you know, it's a question of what you're building. And there, there will be a lot of things that are in the crypto space that will have a real capital place in the capital structure and a lot of stuff that's just gambling. Now, will gambling be impacted? Look, I'm at the World Series of Poker. People were saying, oh, fields are going to be down because no one's coming from Canada. What a steaming load of bullshit that is. All you had to do is a sea of people. We had 8,000 people buy into it in one day

to a thousand dollar buy-in event and 18,000 people overall breaking records. People are making, people are gambling baby. And that's coming from the Vegas. It is insane. And so it's not just meme coins. There is a lot of demand. When you create this much money, people are flashing it around all over the place. I'm telling you, it is insane. And I know this is my version of the Peter Lynch, you know, counting the cars in the mall shopping lot, parking lot.

But I'm telling you, gambling economy is, I thought it would be down a little bit from last year I'm here a week earlier than it was last year, and it's more crowded you It's if I had a camera and I can show pictures you would you know you wouldn't even believe the sea of humanity Playing in these massive poker journalists Okay, so question for all of you We so we've gone from 112 back to 103 Bitcoin right now. We just stop on out some of those guys who got 40x leverage long that was silly. That guy was selling his trade within five minutes of the trade. Price just goes in that direction.

The idiot keeps adding to it. Literally add like a hundred million dollars in today. In 10 minutes, I think, there's after already losing a hundred million. In 10 minutes, it was within 1% and he added 400K or something and it immediately went within 0.25% of his stock. That's literally free money. I don't care what market you're in. If you're publicizing billion dollar positions, somebody's going to go take that.

It's like going to an ATM as well. Well, that's a good question. When you get markets that are this exponential, this highly traded, so easily leveraged, is there always just one idiot? It's human nature. You always say, Scott, humans were human? I mean, this is a classic case of humans humaning, and your rational person looks at it and says,

yeah, okay, well, it was pretty cheap but a couple of years ago now, eh. Yeah, but Mike, we're in a trading ring. Hold on, hold on. We're still looking at it like a trade. I look at it as a commodity. I do, I mean, to test you out. We're in a trading ring. Hold on, hold on. We're still looking at it like a trade. I look at it as a commodity. I do, I mean, it's a commodity. Okay, well then it produces volatility.

It's a number on the screen. Produces volatility, but that does not, it does not change its long-term trajectory. I mean, Mike, it's not a commodity in the sense that it has a completely inelastic supply to price. That is the biggest difference in commodity. It is not a commodity in the sense that it has a completely inelastic supply to price. That is the biggest difference in commodity. It does, I get that. If you don't consider the 16 million dependents, wannabes, what else you want to call them,

but there is 16 million. And now people are actually adding some of these wannabes to their treasury. It's so silly. I mean, I can't wait to read that We didn't even we didn't talk about that because having a strategic reserve of ethereum is just to me is mind-boggling but you know or Let's start your rating. You want to have a clip? So I I asked this question from a couple people at xrp vegas that I saw the poker tournament And I had mouths on the floor with this question. So here's the simple one. If Ripple is willing to, Ripple Labs, which owns 40% of XRP, is willing to buy Circle for 10 to 20 billion or some stupid number because they know that that's the real stable coin business they want to own. Who's going to buy the $10 billion worth of XRP that they by definition would need to sell in order to do that out of their treasury I asked that question and nail it Dave and and and and the it was actually funny I tried to ask Mikkel that question he walked away I'm not saying he would didn't doesn't have an answer for it I'd love to give him a chance to answer it when I'm back back at Crypto Town Hall, maybe we can invite them on Thursday.

I'm gonna go back into my poker shell and flying in an airplane in the next three days, so I won't be in any of those things. But I really wanna know, Ripple Labs is considering spending a significant portion of their XRP treasury, which they would have to, because no one's gonna give them a loan against it

to buy that. What happens? And so when you start looking at altcoins, you have to be aware of that. At the same token, you see tokens like Solana, which have demonstrated that they could become the backbone for a tokenized economy, being mediocre, not really doing much. The first buy one you can because that money is going to disappear at some point. I don't know about disappear, but I think that analysis inside the rest of the

crypto space is going to start becoming rational as opposed to what it is right now is tribal. So if I had one takeaway for people as a macro long-term trend is invest rationally, not tribally. Don't invest because you're part of a community or you're part of an army, you're part of this, you're part of that. And yes, Bitcoin is part of a community, sort of. It's a very interesting, totally different. I know I start sounding like a maxi when I start talking like this. Yeah, the Bitcoin community doesn't drive the price now. That's the difference. No, in fact, they've been the sellers.

Right. It's probably true. Yeah, yeah. I agree with that 100%. I think that as Dave, you said, listen, it's just that's the wealth effect. Mike, we talked about the wealth effect all the time. If you bought Bitcoin at $1 or $1,000 or $100, it's sitting at 110.

Feels like a pretty good price to take some off the table, regardless of what you think is going to happen. Or to just plow 25% of it into a Bitcoin treasury company. Oh, James will talk about that maybe again next week. We'll see. Or an Ethereum treasury company. Because it's now 10.06 and Dave has opened a play at 7 a.m. in Vegas. I wouldn't want to take them from the tables.

Yeah, I need it. I need all the well wishes I can. All I can tell you is that I'd have a great day today if I get the exact opposite of what happened to me yesterday. Your due. Just means your due. I'm not even going to talk bad beats. It's just unbelievable. Bad cards and every time I had a premium hand, someone had a slightly better premium hand. We called them coolers in poker and I was ice cold. But today's a new day, so we'll see what happens. Dave's coming in hot. All right guys, once again, another great Macro Monday.

Thank you and we will see you all next week. Have a good one. Thanks Mike, James and Dave and thanks all you for watching. Thank you, Scott.