The Wolf Of All Streets - Was Satoshi Nakamoto's Identity Revealed? It Doesn't Matter - Bitcoin Is Here To Stay!

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

The new HBO documentary that was supposed to reveal the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto did not impress the crypto community. Does it really matter after all who Satoshi is? I am joined by David Duong, The Head Of Institutional Research at Coinbase to discuss this and more.  David Duong: https://x.com/Dav1dDuong Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►►JOIN ROUNDTABLE TODAY, WE ARE DISCUSSING CRYPTO WITHOUT ANY BOTS IN THE COMMENTS!  👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/HIAzSBY ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.com/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #SatoshiNakamoto The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Did HBO actually identify who Satoshi Nakamoto is after all of this time? And if they did, does it even matter? If you did not watch the documentary last night, we will unpack the great revelations for you today and have a discussion about the implications. Also, obviously going to talk about all things Bitcoin and markets with one of my favorite guests here all the time, David Young from Coinbase, their head of institutional research.

We've got a lot to unpack today. Stick around. Let's go. sleeper. I talk about it pretty frequently. And in context of that, I was already very tired and decided to spend an hour and 45 minutes of my life when I should have been sleeping watching this powerful and compelling documentary on HBO that was going to reveal finally the identity of one anonymous Bitcoin creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. And in the context of hurricane prep and getting up early with the kids home, it was a pretty big commitment for me to stay up. And to be honest, you know what? I'm going to bring David on.

You didn't watch it, did you? I did not watch it, no. But you have an ex-account and you read the news, so you know, obviously, what the revelations were and where the takes. I would say that the ending of this uh rivaled another classic ending in hbo history which was game of thrones uh equally horrid and terrible and bad and awful so if you guys didn't see it peter, early Bitcoin developer, was revealed as Satoshi Nakamoto. So we've obviously seen Hal Finney and Nick Szabo, Len Sassaman recently. All of these guys floated, CIA, NSA,

whoever. You saw the reveal. Did you by any chance see the evidence? Because if you didn't, I can break it down for you and it's hilarious. So I didn't see the evidence. I mean, I went into this with a fair bit of healthy skepticism so i probably wouldn't be disappointed um at least not as disappointed as i was in the hbo like uh game of thrones series but yeah please break it down for me so basically there was a post by satoshi nakamoto which was one of his last posts that was highly technical and then peter todd who at the time was uh in his early 20s he said he started in when he was 15 looking at hash cash in the early 2000s, talking to Adam Beck and Hal Finney. Basically, he responded to this as Peter Todd.

And it looked like it was a continuation of Satoshi's post rather than a response. Like, you know, it kind of just looked like Satoshi broke a line and then continued going. That was the evidence. It was that he had basically signed out and accidentally signed in his Anon account and continued the thought. And that was really the basic of it. I mean, listen, the same evidence that we have for all of these people is that they were early on the cypherpunk list. They were in the Bitcoin talk. Those apply to like 30 guys.

Right. And so in this case, that really the smoking gun uh was that and they both then disappeared at the exact same time right you know what i'm going to show you uh peter todd's reaction this is worth watching for those who didn't see it this summarizes the entire documentary uh right here this is his reaction when he was basically told he was satoshi nakamoto you guys can judge for yourselves a concept which you had envisioned years earlier, but you needed some kind of cover in order to make it. And you also needed some cover for that 2010 post. Yeah, because I was Satoshi. I mean, yeah, you know, you're very concerned about all the privacy stuff. So you reach out to your old buddy Adam back, you say we need to do something about

this, but we need to pay the devs But you can't join the block stream because it would look too suspicious So you don't I will admit you're pretty creative you come with some crazy theories. It's ludicrous But it's the sort of theory someone who spends the time is documentary journalist would come up with so yeah Yeah, I'll say of course I'm Satoshi and I'm Craig Wright. And yes, I was definitely covering that little bit about, you know, fees to go pretend to be Satoshi. Or not Satoshi, one or the other. Why make up the whole John Dillon thing? Well, like I said, I'm not John Dillon.

Okay. Sorry, I'm not John Dillon. I don't know who that is. I'll warn you, this is going to be very funny when you put this into the documentary and a bunch of Bitcoiners watch it. I don't think they would be very happy with this conclusion because it's pretty controversial within the community at this point. No, I suspect a lot of them will be very happy if you go this route because it's going to be yet another example of journalists really missing the point

in a way that's very funny. What is the point? The point is to make bitcoin the global currency and people like you being distracted by nonsense you're potentially too good on that so adam back is definitely standing there awkwardly in his awesome mclaren hat which i noticed um but uh the the last point is the one that i want to discuss right so i think that this is one of the great mysteries. Who is Satoshi Nakamoto?

But I think beyond like the clickbait human compulsion to like get that aha reveal, wouldn't most Bitcoiners want Satoshi to remain forever anonymous, keep Bitcoin forever decentralized and know that those million coins are gone forever. Yeah. I mean, the risk that unveiling his identity could contravene the ethos, the core ethos of what Bitcoin is, I think is the big risk. We like the idea of Bitcoin kind of operating with this decentralized framework bigger than any one personality. I think that's what kind of keeps like Bitcoin in our wallets. I don't know if actually revealing that, who the creator of it, who Satoshi is, would actually cause us to kind of change that view, to be quite honest, but it wouldn't help you know and i think that's kind of the key here but yeah kind of i like what he said because honestly like they they

keep rehashing the same theory over and over again and no one ever presents like the like knee on the coffin this is like the evidence that they can actually provide yeah so hbo is obviously entertainment right a lot of people have pointed this and said it's the mainstream media it's hbo right it's this isn't like it's a news network but there were a few claims that came alongside this documentary that now in hindsight are so absurd i don't know if you heard but the way that this documentary was being pitched as so shocking to the world that it could affect the United States elections. No, I did not hear that. Anything sort of Kamala Harris being proven to be Satoshi Nakamoto, I don't even understand that claim.

Yeah, and I'm not a Bitcoin historian by any means, but I thought that they would present more evidence than this, like than what you suggested, because I thought they would be like, oh, Satoshi had to be a Linux developer because this was written in linux it wasn't written on a mac it wasn't you know like something but like that's what you're presenting it seems so thin it's ridiculous yeah it's ridiculous and then my favorite claim was that satoshi would be the first trillionaire in the world and that he had a trillion dollars that's locked in this wallet. And I do math sometimes. Last time I checked, a million tokens to get to a trillion

would have to be a million dollars a token. So they're extrapolating with the assumption for the clickbait that Satoshi would be a trillionaire to a million dollars of Bitcoin. Yeah, like at today's prices, I mean, it would be somewhere closer to like 60, 61 $61 billion, which I'm not going to sneeze at. But yeah, you're right. The math is off. $61 billion.

So, yeah, I think once again, guys, I didn't fall for the clickbait. I didn't believe it was going to rock the election. I didn't actually believe it, but I watched it. I will say this. I think the documentary itself until the end when it became about who Satoshi was, which it wasn't really about, was exceptional at explaining Bitcoin to normies and presenting the early ethos. So I'm hoping that millions of people watch it because of the clickbait and actually learn something about Bitcoin and it becomes a major net positive. I mean, my wife was watching with me. She was like, this kind of makes me want to go buy some more Bitcoin.

You know, so it was compelling when you watched it, seeing them talk about the early days and talking about fiat and all those things. So I thought that it was a net positive in that regard. I think we can move on. I think the beauty of Bitcoin is that Satoshi remains forever anonymous. We all assume that that million coins is now going to be unlocked and dumped on the market. But I think that it's going to bring out more positive questions about Bitcoin if people watch it. And I think that that's a pretty big net positive. But let's talk about the actual market because I think we've wasted enough breath on HBO. This is from Coinbase Institutional Research, aka you. Weekly mixed messages from October 4th. I mean, how are you

sort of framing the market at this point? It's October 9th. I mean, how are you sort of framing the market at this point? It's October 9th. You know, we were supposed to be at $400,000 per Bitcoin in the first week of October because it's October. That's sarcasm. But, you know, we were promised this huge move to the upside and all we have is sort of floating downward chop that's continued. Yeah. I mean, our outlook for Q4 remains constructive and we've had that view on since probably early July or so. Now, I think the challenge here is that positioning, of course, has gotten somewhat crowded because we saw a lot more capital flow in due to people's views of October, quote unquote, and the idea that seasonal bias could actually promote like a lot more people's kind of push in here.

I don't think that that's necessarily the right approach to this. I've been kind of famously kind of skeptical about some of these kind of seasonal dynamics, but I do think that what we saw in September in terms of people kind of trimming some of these kind of seasonal dynamics. But I do think that what we saw in September in terms of people kind of trimming some of their profits, but September ending up being a much better month

for markets than many had suspected. And also the fact that, you know, we're kind of transitioning in terms of what are the key macro drivers in this space, because I'd say at this point, we're kind of done pricing in the idea of what the Fed can actually offer us here. And now we're just going to kind of parse through

like labor data, inflation data, and try to figure out like what the next move is. But I think overall things haven't changed on that side. I think, you know, just cuts are in the picture. So we're kind of in this in-between state where we're kind of moving on to the next big macro catalyst, which is likely going to be the US elections. Yeah, I'm looking right here. Actually, as you said that, it's a nice segue because we have yet

another, you know, take on what price will do. Always the upside. But Bernstein reiterates Bitcoin could hit 80, 90k if Trump wins presidency amid polymarket odds divergence. So now if you're looking at the polymarket election, I'll bring it up in a minute, but Trump, I think 54% now. So sort of back on top after the Kamala Harris honeymoon period, somebody did point out to me, which I don't think I was aware of that polymarkets like main backer is Peter Thiel. And a very not sizable bet on polymarket could very much change the odds, right? Because it's an active betting market. So maybe that diminishes to some degree, either way, whether deal or not, the validity, I guess, of Polymarket. But it's one of the best things that we have. And clearly,

Trump's sort of back in the lead. There was a time that if you saw Trump go from 48% to 54% on Polymarket, you would expect Bitcoin to go up 10%, right? Yeah. I mean, I'm going to say the obvious, which is PolyMarket isn't here to predict what is actually going to happen. They're here for people to kind of bet on an outcome and for you to understand what the probabilities are. But that also means that things will oscillate around that 50% level. And if it skews like too far one way or another for whichever candidate, you'll probably see that pull back because that's what markets are trying to

price. But people often try to treat polymarket odds as gospel of like, well, this is what's going to happen. And, you know, like it's very similar to what we going to happen. And, you know, like, it's very similar to what we saw with the HBO outcome, for example, like, you're playing the odds. So I think that that's one thing to kind of keep in mind about all this stuff. But I do think that, you know, and, you know, just kind of to the point of that, that Bernstein article, you know, when I was a like, full time

macro strategist, for example, oftentimes you would either provide the level or the timing, but not both at the same time, because that's when you're definitely going to be wrong. And that's kind of what I feel about a headline like this, because you know what? It's more about what's their timeframe for that price target? Because if they're saying, is that going to happen immediately after're saying, is that going to happen immediately after the elections? Is that going to happen like a week after, like a month after? Keep in mind too, that we might not know the election result itself until days or weeks after this, like, I mean, not past January 20th or whatever,

but certainly like it will take, it could take time rather to reconcile the votes. Now, I would actually say that my bias is that the outcome for the elections are probably going to be fairly optimistic as far as its implications for crypto, because what we've seen is that from both candidates, there's been more pro-crypto sentiment recently. So I would suspect that the regulatory environment is going to be better than, definitely better than what we have today. And from that standpoint, I think that many people will probably look at crypto as the asset class of trade, because if you're going to try to play a definitive election outcome, for example, like, well, what asset classes are there to do that? I think crypto is probably one of the best ones there. But I would say that from an institutional perspective, if we do see that there is a negative reaction to whatever the outcome is, I think institutions are going to step in here and kind of offer support because

for the most part, I think they're looking at this and there's a lot of upside for crypto. Yeah, they're coming in regardless. It's just a matter of due process, basically, for doing their due diligence and getting there. But in the meantime, we're weeks before the election and seemingly the current regulators not stopping. So we have Crypto.com sues SEC Chair Gary Gensler after receiving Wells' notice. So there's a few things unpacked here. So the headline, obviously, is that Crypto.com is suing the SEC. They want to prevent the SEC from unlawfully expanding its jurisdiction. The SEC effectively sent a Wells notice. I think it listed 10 tokens.

Once again, sort of that passive, these things are digital asset securities or unregistered securities. But maybe the bigger story is that Crypto.com following, I think it was ConsenSys' playbook, but Coinbase took a bit of time, but literally suing immediately. I think it was the same with ConsenSys. They sued like five minutes after the Wells notice dropped. They knew it was coming. They had the suit ready. Crypto.com seemingly doing that as well. So maybe the bigger story is zero fear from the industry. They know the playbook now and they shoot right back. Yeah. I mean, the good thing too is that I from the industry. They know the playbook now and they shoot right back. Yeah. I mean, the good thing too, is that I believe the fiscal year for the SEC ends on

September 30th. So hopefully for the remainder of this quarter, we won't get as many of these headlines. But yeah, I completely agree. I think that now there's a lot of cover for these companies to actually say, you know what, like, we don't believe in regulation by enforcement. And we're going to hit right back at the SEC when they kind of bring up these issues, because we've seen in numerous court cases at the SEC acting arbitrary and capricious. So I think that these things are a net positive for the industry to see a lot more people willing to kind of challenge the SEC on these grounds. I mean, and the election could literally just see these disappear. I mean, that's a little bit tougher because then you have to kind of dig into the nuance of, well,

you know, we're not likely to get a blue wave or a red wave. So with a divided you know executive and legislative branch will that like permit changes uh right so even if trump even if trump wins it doesn't mean that he'll have the power necessarily to change everything wholesale in the sec is basically what you say there but there is a scenario obviously like i've said it over and over again like trump's not gonna be too keen on naming all coins unregistered securities when he's launching them yeah i mean for that matter i mean you have to also think about what's happening outside of crypto right like i mean gary hasn't made a lot of friends on wall street either he hasn't made a lot of friends with banks he hasn't made a lot of friends

with hedge funds um there's a lot of people who want to see him go, not just crypto players. And I think that those are people who are supporters of parties on both sides. So I think that's going to be a factor when we kind of see the new administration. Yeah, I think so, too. I think that makes sense. I'm trying to get this. We're going to get this video actually, because Mark Uyeda, who's an SEC commissioner, went on Fox Business. He's not particularly vocal, but apparently I'm seeing in the background here,

he absolutely, for the first time, just eviscerated Gary Gensler this morning, which is not something he's done. He's written a lot of dissent, obviously, with Hester Peirce, but I don't think he's come out in front and done many interviews like this. So I'll see if I can get that for you guys in the meantime while we're talking about this. But we have a lot more still going on. I mean, Wall Street still filing for more ETFs. It seems that XRP right now has become the focus, which is really interesting because we kind of thought we had clarity on XRP, but now we know the SEC is appealing. Yeah, it's interesting here because, you know, when we started hearing about the next wave of potential spot ETFs, I was kind of surprised and I'll be honest, a little skeptical in part because we've seen a lot more stringent kind of regulatory outlook with regards to

these other like tokens besides Bitcoin and then ETH. You know, like, I think that this is probably trying to put a play on what we're going to see in terms of the regulatory environment in the next administration, which might not be a bad idea. Like I said, I do think that we're going to see a much more lenient kind of stance than the one we currently are dealing with at the moment. But at the same time, I don't know what's going to happen for a lot of these ETF issuers in terms of like, will this be profitable for them? Are we trying to be too specific? Should we be focusing more on sectors?

Those are the questions I have outstanding. Yeah. So as per your constructive view on Q4, I think that's what everyone wants to kind of dig in on. We have seen some movement in the altcoin market, right? I mean, it's been sort of limited to certain areas, Aptos and Sui, kind of some of the new layer ones have shown some action. I think memes catching a bid again. When we talk about a constructive Q4, do we think that includes new retail money coming in to sort of see the entire market? I'm not saying pulling 100Xs, but seeing across the board sort of rise in the bigger name tokens? Or do you view that it's still kind of Bitcoin's turn and we're going to have to wait

for that to resolve before we really get, hopefully, some action in the altcoin market. I think being selective about altcoins kind of makes sense in this environment because we are seeing us also coming off hiatus in terms of the token unlocks, which is going to free up some capital and some of that capital will kind of make its way into these altcoin names. Sui has done a very good job. You and I were both in Singapore, for example. We saw the level of advertising they were doing around both Token2489 and F1. So I think that that's captured a lot of attention among a lot of large investors. And of course, it's supportive because they've also ran their most recent upgrades.

So they've been moving very quickly through like Narwhal to like, you know, Bullshark and now Mysticin in terms of the upgrades. It's just like they've been iterating very quickly on that side. And I think they've decided to narrow in their focus on gaming, for example. So I think there are fundamental reasons why some of these tokens are being supported. But I would just kind of be cautious because there are some token unlocks happening for certain assets and they could escalate over the course of the next few months. So I would just kind of be worried about any supply side dynamics that could affect

some of these tokens? He means unlocks. Supply side dynamics, right? I mean, we have a ton of tokens, obviously. We've talked about unlocking October, but we also have so many projects that have been waiting to launch for six months, 12 months, even 18 months for that perfect moment. We're all going to decide on the same perfect moment and launch their tokens at once, in my opinion. That's what's most likely to happen. That concerns me. We would need so much retail demand for all these things to perform well yeah this is the challenge it feels like again we're seeing a bit of a concentration here and you know i was hearing the exact same stories uh at both token 20.9 as well as mainnet in terms of okay like uh you know like we're focusing on these emerging Alt L1s,

for example, and it's kind of a rehashing of certain stories and like some of them might have innovations around it, but a lot of people were like talking about, oh, there's Barrowchain, there's Monad kind of coming out. Like, let's kind of look at that. You know, there was a lot of discussion

still around the Tun ecosystem and like telegrams, like mini apps. And, you know, that's all that's kind of interesting. I think that we are kind of pivoted away from the idea of it's not just about the technology. A lot of it is what you offer in terms of real world potential use cases, applications, because that's what we want. So anyone who's able to kind of show like there's kind of these emerging like developments, I think it's starting to get a lot of like sentiment, positive sentiment around it. But what is interesting is that like each of these L1s

that they're launching are kind of coming up with their own stable of like primitives, right? It's all the same kind of like primitives. It's all like they've got a DAX and they've got a lending protocol and they've got like these things, like they've got DeFi built in and they're kind of coming out with that.

So it's getting harder and harder to kind of distinguish these projects as they kind of come out. We also had this news here. I have a lot of people pointing to as a potential catalyst. I don't really buy it, but we have FTX cleared to repay billions to customers after bankruptcy plan approval.

A lot of people pointing to the fact that I think it's 12 billion. No, 16.5 billion could be returned. A lot of people saying that's going to flow right back into the market. But I think when you actually dig into how slowly it's going to be released and who it's being released to, I don't think it's going to be that huge of a catalyst. Kind of reminds me of the Mt. Gox narrative to the downside, but this to the upside, because I think five or six billion of these claims alone are purchased claims already by hedge funds who have bought them off of people and are definitely not going back into the market to buy crypto with it. Yeah, that was what I was going to point out. So this is going to be broken

out into two chunks. The smaller claimants who have below $50,000, for example, are probably going to be paid in this quarter. And I think that that has to be done within the next 60 days now that this plan has been approved. But then the larger claimants won't be paid out very likely until first quarter, 2025. And I think that represents somewhere between like, I think it's, it's somewhere around like $9 billion. So that's going to be the greater chunk of it. And,

and maybe do your own homework on that. Cause don't, don't just quote my numbers, but like I agree with you. I think that because a lot of this is already spoken for, given the fact that been bought out by third parties, they're very, the likelihood of this kind of flowing back into the market is probably limited.

I mean, you would need multiple billions all to hit at once for it actually to make a meaningful difference. I mean, we saw Grayscale unlock, you know, 700, 800 million a day to actually move the market when GBTC was unlocked. So it takes quite a bit. Yeah. I mean, in a binary way, more liquidity is always better than less liquidity, right? And I mean, at the margin, it's going to improve it, but whether it's going to actually affect the price action and lead to better price discovery because there's so much money kind of sloshing around, that part i kind of i'm not sure that's going to happen well david next time i we talk hopefully it'll be about like the banana zone and the 4000x uh that all these tokens have pulled and not yet another we're waiting and it's

going to happen soon conversation that we all inevitably seem to be forced to have but i would love your work and your research and always love having you here, man. Thank you so much. No, thanks so much, Scott. All right, guys. Thank you. Go follow David on X. It's down in the description. There's some pretty funny takes here, by the way, that we found on Twitter about Satoshi. This one was,

I think it's from rec Mando, but it was a HBO revealing or researching who Satoshi is. There they are, finding Satoshi. I liked this one too, the mid-curve take. It doesn't matter. HBO's about to reveal who Satoshi is. Oh my God, it doesn't matter. For any of you guys who have seen that meme,

makes a lot of sense in this context. Really, really funny. I did actually find the uh interview but it's i haven't listened to it yet and it's like nine minutes long so uh if you want to see nine minutes apparently of gary gensler taking a beating you guys can go look that up on fox business not going to share it here and i'm not going to share it because we have better things to do like talk to Christopher Inks. Good morning, sir. How are you doing, man? $61,900 Bitcoin. I don't know what the price was last Wednesday or the Wednesday before or the Wednesday before, but I can't imagine it was far from here. No, we're just kind of doing the thing, you know, doing our pullback. Nothing's really changed.

Kind of looking at this, I think we've got you know because the rally up off the uh the swing low here and you know the august 5th swing low here in the september uh 6th swing low here it's all like overlapping and that suggests that uh if it is if this is the bottom here this is going to be a leading diagonal so to give us five waves up, probably somewhere between 67, 485 and 69,000. And then we get a pullback down here toward this daily pivoted around 60,800 or so. And then we get the big breakout. So I've been talking for a while about the idea that usually when we have these ranges that build, most of the time, what you'll get is you'll get a rally up. When it's ready to

go out, you'll get a rally up toward that swing high area. And so it could go a little bit higher than here. I'm just saying this is probably the range we're looking at. But then it'll get a pullback. And after that pullback, that's the big one that breaks through. And so again, when I look at that, I don't see that we break out. I don't think we break out here in October. It's already the ninth. Yeah, it's going to take some time to get up there and pull back. So I think it'd probably be, you know, sometime in November when we get the breakout, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. I know people have been like, oh my God, will it ever end? We've been sideways for seven months. But, you know, the longer you go

sideways, you know, it sounds, you know, trite,, the longer you go sideways, you know, it sounds, you know, trite, but the longer you go sideways, the bigger, the stronger the breakout, you know, tends to be because you have that consolidation happening. And so, you know, that your job as a trader is to find your lows to get in and just wait for that for that breakout to happen, right? Absolutely. So in the meantime, yeah, well, that's happening. Is there anything else you're actually looking at right now? Yeah, I'll jump in just one second here. Locally here, what I'm looking at, I think we may be getting ready to rally up.

I'm looking for a pull down potentially right around this 61,600, 610 area. And then looking for a breakout higher. So if we can get an impulsive breakout and close above that 62, 798 area, which is the hourly pivot, I think that's going to send us up on our way toward those upper targets that I was talking about before we get the final pullback and then the breakout. So I think we're probably pretty close to that, but we'll see if we can get that.

That's what I'm looking at right now on that. As far as alts i had a different one and then i just happened to come across this one this morning which really looked intriguing uh this is orn orn remember that classic yeah well i mean we got this great sweep of this um august 5th low here so we did that. This is the hourly S1 pivot. It's 70 and a half percent retracement off this big rally here. I mean, and it's also potentially printing bullish divergence here in RSI. So I mean, everything's kind of coming together where this may be the low here and we're rallying back up. So the first thing I want to see is I want to see this reclaim

this S1 pivot here on the daily right around 94 and a half cents. And if we can get that, I'm going to look for a target here of the hourly pivot, which is $1.26. Impulsive breakout and close above that has me looking at $1.95, $1.96 right here. And then beyond that, further target up there, $2.77 and a half cents. So I love the confluence of factors that are happening here. There's never a guarantee, as you know, in trading, but we tend to look for where that confluence of activity, where is that area where multiple things are happening at one time, where normally you would see it and go, okay, that might be a low a low right you see a sweep this low over here potential bullish sfp we hit the hourly s1 pivot we're rallying back up that itself is another thing potential bullish

divergence that itself is another thing and you have it all happening the 70 and a half retracement so you see all these things happening at that same area and it's not a guarantee it's going to go up but you definitely want to be paying attention at that point and then you work in steps as i was just talking about here to get that potential move up so i think we've got some decent upside potentially setting up for that um on there i've got this other one here uh ox t o x t usd um ox the yeah that's exactly it uh it looks like we're hitting the same resistance over and over and over again we're getting higher lows with our um you know down here with price and so i'm looking for a breakout above this area right there around, you know, I guess it's probably what 8.2, 8.3 cents. And I think if we can get a, you know, a decent break on through that, I think that sends it up

here toward this, um, uh, 10.7, 11.25 cent area up here. Um, and so, you know, just kind of based on the height of this generally, it's a, you know, 200% of based on the height of this, generally it's, you know, 200% there. And then we've got that lower volume node, just a bit higher there. So, um, really kind of watching this for this breakout here to kind of get a, what appears to be potentially a pretty easy long up into that area. Um, if we get it now, yeah, there, by the way, just saying Orin was changing to Lumia, hence the volatility. So apparently there was something fundamental on that one, yeah we're on oxta now i love that

people know this stuff because i you know i got too much going on to know what all these projects are doing so that's why you know look at the charts it makes it easier but good to know good to know right um but yeah so you know obviously if we're breaking down here, kind of below this swing low here at about 6.39 cents, we're breaking down below that, then this is invalidated and whatnot. But if we can continue with these higher lows toward this resistance, I think it gives us a pretty good trade right there. Let me see here. And then I've got SKL.

And this right here, again, kind of interesting, coming on down toward that hourly S1 pivot, that descending resistance, potentially testing the area one more time as support, about a 70.5 pullback. So, again, you know, confluence of things happening there, suggesting that maybe we might get a rally off that. So I want to see a breakout above this last swing high, which is right here above the daily and the hourly pivot.

They're right around that same area, but it's a 0.0392. So if we can get a breakout above that, that's going to suggest that the low is in. And at that point, initial target was this first bit of liquidity up here around 0.0453. But then we're looking at 0.0578 in the low volume node. And then this upper low volume node up here, previous area kind of resistance and support here at 0.0805. So, you know, again, just looking for the setup here

in the rally up, you know, a lot of times retail traders, unfortunately, they get in here and they think trading is all about, you know, being able to open a chart and go, okay, I need to enter right here right now. And most of trading actually is just looking at charts, looking for setups, and then waiting for the setup to materialize and then enter, right? So we got to have a little patience. You know, if these things don't happen, if this thing just kind of tanks on down, well, you know, it's invalidated. But, you know, as long as we can get this rally up from this area here and break out through that, that should give us those targets to the upside. And, you know, the same thing with the other ones we were looking at there.

So, you know, all of these charts look kind of the same. Yeah, all the charts kind of look the same. Like they had this little move and now they're kind of retesting. Yeah, yeah, exactly. We're kind of at that point right now with that retest and so um i think there's a lot of uh potential opportunity in there um i'm i gotta tell you know we got the traders club going on and andrew is in there man and andrew's a trip he gets up there and he is just he just finds like charts all day long and it blows me away. And so he actually, um, he's got another job, you know, a real job in real life that he does as well. Uh, and he was in Dallas for a few days and everybody's like,

oh, let me see. You mean we can take a rest now? Uh, because you just kept, you know, popping out, you know, trades left and right. And so, you know, they're there for the findings i guess is what i'm trying to say you know they're there if you're paying attention the trades are there um it's just you know how much patience do you do you have as a trader and and hopefully if you're in the markets you have patience otherwise let's hope otherwise you shouldn't be in the markets yeah because it'll take your money quick fast and in a hurry we've all learned that the hard way at some point. Anything else or is that a wrap? No, I think that's good right now.

I don't want to jump too far into it. We got CPI coming out on Thursday. I think we've got – I know everybody's going kind of crazy thinking that the Fed was going to do another 50 basis point rate cut in November. And obviously after that, whether you believe the numbers or not, or whatever you think, you know, the fact is the jobs numbers came out what they did and it was huge. And so, you know, we'll watch CPI. And so the only thing I'm thinking is that the markets are kind of scheduled or like looking at maybe like a 13% chance that we'll have a pause. The only thing that I think that would happen,

that is if we've got a, if a CPI comes in really hot, if CPI comes in hot, you know, comes in higher than expected, I think there's a increased chance that we could get a pause. But other than that, I'm still sticking with the, you know, the 25 basis point rate hike there coming in. And so, you know, we'll see how that goes.

You know how crypto Twitter is now, all of a sudden everybody's interested in all the cpi and we're experts in viruses yeah everything everything everything it's always something it's always something all right guys i gotta go prep for a hurricane and hopefully make it to twitter spaces in about 30 minutes so uh chris thank you man man. Everybody follow Chris, CX West Capital on X. Check out their group, everything else they got going on. Otherwise, hopefully I'll be back tomorrow. I can't make any promises.

Very high chance of no internet, I would say. Good luck with that, man. Stay safe out there. All right, man. We've all done it. Yep. No big deal.

We'll get through it. Thank you, guys. I will see you all hopefully tomorrow, hopefully Friday. All right. Later. Bye. Thanks, guys.