The Wolf Of All Streets - We Have Proof That Institutions Are Buying Bitcoin l Bull Market Confirmed

Episode Date: October 25, 2023

Join James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, and Chris Inks from TextWestCapital, who will break down all the latest in crypto and will provide you with market insights. James Butterfill: https://x.com/jbutterfill Chris Inks: https://x.com/TXWestCapital ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►TRADING ALPHA - Ready to trade like the pros? The best traders in crypto are relying on these indicators to make trades. Use code ‘2MonthsOff’ when visiting my link. 👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker   ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Institutions are buying Bitcoin and we can show you how we know. And it feels like as a result, the bull market is back, baby. I think you have to say baby after you say the bull market is back. It just has a much more impactful sound of saying the bull market is back, baby. But I've got James Butterfill, who seemingly every article referencing institutional adoption of crypto is referencing James Butterfill and CoinShare. So he's the perfect person to bring on to discuss this very topic. And of course, at the end, I've got Christopher Inks of Texas West Capital to show you what we're trading

these days. It's going to be another amazing stream. Let's go. what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel hit that like button i have to say that life is a lot more fun around here when prices are going up and not going down. The bull market sentiment, whether we determine it to be a bull market or not, makes life so much easier, so much more pleasant, so many less trolls. Still some people telling me that I'm an idiot and that Bitcoin is going to zero. But most of that is largely avoidable. So I hope that you guys have been enjoying this price action. As I said there at the beginning, we do have some strong indication that institutions are buying Bitcoin. James just had a bit of a sound

issue. He'll be back in one second, but I will start showing you what we are seeing. And the main thing here that we are seeing is institutions race for Bitcoin, sending CME open interest to record high. Open interest on CME futures contracts, which is where institutions currently trade Bitcoin, is at an all-time high. 100,000 Bitcoin, $3.4 billion. That has never happened before. That's never happened before. And interestingly, we know that open interest had actually dropped immediately after the break of 30, 31,000 when we saw that first pump. Shorts were getting liquidated, but it immediately, immediately increased once again. And now we have institutions buying.

Now, I can't wait for James to get here because he has some great alpha on where those institutions are that are buying this asset, which is very helpful information. But what's hilarious, maybe while we're waiting, we'll just dig into this story because, oh, man, you guys may have seen this yesterday. So we talked about the BlackRock IBTC ticker showing up on the DTCC site, right? We covered it yesterday. We've been tweeting about it. Everybody was talking about it on the DTCC website. All of a sudden, magically, right? IBTC appeared, meaning that BlackRock was taking the next steps to prepare for the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. And a part of that was that they said that they would need to buy some of the underlying asset to add to that, a.k.a. some more institutional buying, even if in small amounts to seed the initial fund. Something that seemingly you wouldn't do unless you actually intended to get approval.

Then I talked to an ETF expert who said, literally, this means nothing. So we had all these narratives circling around how big of a deal this was. And a lot of people who look at ETFs are like, yeah, man, it just means they're kind of like going through the steps. It doesn't mean the approval is imminent. It doesn't mean that they're buying meaningful amounts of Bitcoin at all. And then if you guys weren't paying attention yesterday, what happened next? Well, that ticker apparently, according to crypto Twitter, who doesn't know shit about shit about shit, said it was removed. And so many people tried to check the site to see if it was in fact removed that the DTCC site completely crashed. So if you went on the site, you got one of those cloud flares, sorry, bro, we don't exist.

Come back another time, maybe in a few years. And then when it came back, the ticker was kind of there, then it wasn't there. Then people said that ARK's ticker was there. So now ARK's, their application, getting a ticker, very exciting, but that wasn't actually there. So this was all the classic fake news, bullshit, crypto journalism, any journalism, not just crypto to be fair, that we've seen over and over again, much like the fake news from Cointelegraph last week. And then the real kicker

came out, guys. The real kicker was, okay, this was the disappearance, but here it was, that ticker had been there since August. Ticker was already there. So I'm going to go ahead and bring on James while we talk about it. But if you guys didn't hear that, it was big news that the DTCC listed the ticker yesterday or the day before. Then it was bigger news when they removed the ticker. Then it was bigger news when the DTCC website went down as a result. Then it was huge news when ARK was added, which didn't actually happen. And then we found out that the internet sleuths and crypto Twitter had missed the fact that this has been sitting there for over two months and is a literal nothing burger. James, is your mic working? Do we got you here?

Yeah, I think it's working now. Can you hear me all right? Man, perfect. Yeah. So you might have missed what we were talking about. We kind of reviewed the CME open interest part of it. You have some information, I believe, obviously, as I said, everybody references you on inflows and how much capital

we're seeing coming from institutions in this space. Actually, it's very cautious so far. When BlackRock announced the listing, the initial listing in June, or the application with the SEC, we saw about $300 million of inflows. And since then, we've only seen around $150-ish, and this week so far $76 million. So a little bit more cautious this time around. Maybe investors have been a little bit burnt and they're just being a bit more cautious until there's actually real, true evidence that the SEC will approve. But what's very interesting, your point you made... Well, actually, sorry. In the United States,

we're seeing outflows from futures-based ETFs. So perhaps people are positioning themselves selling out and waiting to buy the spot-based ETF. Right. There are a few things here that make a lot of sense to me. Why would you sit in the futures ETF if a spot ETF is imminent? Because we all know that futures ETF underperforms even the spot price of Bitcoin. It's a subpar product. And the other thing is, why would we see massive inflows into any of these other products if people really want to buy the ETF, right? So the fact that we're seeing meaningful inflows, I believe you told me the number now on the year is about 326. Is that correct? Yeah, about 330-ish, about 330 million, yeah. Right. So not huge numbers, but what I pointed to was the CME contracts hitting open interest,

hitting an all-time high. So people are at least trading it aggressively, the institutions. But it seems like the real inflows would naturally come when we get the approval, because why would you do anything else before that at this point? And that's absolutely right. And we have to think about timing here now as well. And this is why, so we're having all these applicants, they've applied for what they call a 19B4 application,

and that's to get approval from the SEC to launch a fund. And that's where we all are now. And actually, Grayscale is a little bit different because they're saying, well, they already applied much earlier, and therefore they could get a 19B4 approved earlier than all their competitors. I suspect the discussions are happening with the SEC now are saying, oh, actually, we want to wait and approve everyone at the same time, which is kind of fair, I suppose. But once the 19B4 is approved, and I think actually those will be approved before Thanksgiving. So that is the biggest point at which we know for sure the SEC is going to approve.

And then after that, it's more procedural. What the SEC then do is give the applicant 75 days to list a security. And so if you think about that and practicalities around, you know, you've got Thanksgiving and then you've got Christmas, etc. It's probably likely that early January or just January time, when that 75 days is still within that 75-day window, that's when all the ETFs will actually be launched and issued. Right. That makes sense. Now, I want to talk about the actual price action that surrounded all of this news, both real, fake, and two months delayed, because it's seemingly that's what happened, right? So we've seen this massive move, seemingly just on anticipation that this ETF will get approved. But we've had that anticipation now for a few weeks. Obviously, Grayscale won. The SEC didn't appeal. BlackRock kind of advancing

their cause. ARK changing their language, the SEC actively asking questions, right? The whole vibe here has changed. But that's still, that's a lot. That doesn't seem like enough to necessarily send price to $35,000. I actually read an interesting thread here, which I didn't show you before, but from Alex Thorne saying that option market makers in Bitcoin are increasingly short gamma as Bitcoin spot price moves up. When you're short gamma on spot price rises, you need to buy back spot to stay delta neutral. This should amplify the explosiveness of any short term upward move in the near term more. Now, he posted this.

It's a long thread before the big move from 31 to 35. And actually, when I started to dig in and I asked Josh Frank from the tie about this, he said, actually the bulk of this buying was on okay. X and then other Asian exchanges and outside the United States. And you told me before this, even that a lot of the fund inflows we're seeing are from Canada and Europe. And this isn't really largely us buying. Yeah, that's,

that's true. And I think what you're the chap just described them as basically a short squeeze. They can't hold on to these short positions anymore. That's GameStop, guys. It's possible. I mean, we've got, if you look at something with the RSI, the relative strength index, and many people kind of follow this, I would say with a word of caution that if you backtest R But we have to think about some of the factors other than just the ETF that are moving the price at the moment. So don't forget what was moving the price back in May. Interestingly, what was trying to push it down was the SEC and really going hard against exchanges. But what was pushing it up was the banking crisis

and the US government shutdown. We are in the middle of another government potential shutdown. So the Congress sort of approved a continuing resolution, which basically kicked the can down the road for the shutdown on the 1st of October. And now come 17th of October, this is a big issue again. And I think that is another factor to support. Nobody's talking about it. It's a huge issue again. And I think that is another factor to support. Nobody's talking about it. It's a huge issue and we don't even have a speaker of the house to deal with any of it. Yes. Yes. Which is absolutely incredible that the same issue that nobody could stop talking about just a few short weeks ago, seemingly all of a sudden becomes

a non-issue because there's other things in the media. I want to hone in really quickly on RSI because it's an interesting point. Now, I will say that RSI isn't always a great signal simply because it's over bought or oversold. But where it is a good signal is when you get divergence, in my opinion. It's always been my favorite signal. But looking, daily RSI right now is at roughly 88, 87.62. You can scroll back, peak RSI 20, we got higher than that in the beginning of this year, but then literally at the peaks of the last bull market, we're talking about 69,000 and higher, it only went to roughly 89. We're talking about all-time highs of RSI. Back in 2017, that bull market, it got to, yeah, it pushed up to about 94. But to your point, we're peaking

up to that area where maybe you get another push, one more push, and then it can be healthy retracement and RSI resets. But if you're looking at the weekly, just for people's reference, it's just hitting overbought. And on larger timeframes give you more, I think, of information on how long the bull market could go. And it just hit overbought at 12,000 in 2020, right? And we all know that Bitcoin managed to push all the way to 65,000 with RSI just hitting overbought. So depending on the timeframe,

I think the daily needs some retracement, but there's plenty of room to run on a higher timeframe. Yeah, and let's think about, you know, if there's a bit of a sell-off, then the next question is, well, at what point do you buy? Do you wait till the RSI drops below 30 before you buy it? And I think we then have to think more from a macro perspective and what's going on in sort of broader markets.

What are the price drivers and what are the price detractors? If you just focus on the price detractors, a way more hawkish Fed would be not great for Bitcoin. An incredibly strong dollar, again, would not be great for Bitcoin. And a soft economic landing, I think, in that scenario wouldn't be great either. But I think they're unlikely. And if you look at some of the price, things that price a push up,

obviously the ETF, we know that's pushing up the price. The shutdown worries. We've got next year, it's likely that there are likely rate cuts. Now, at the moment, the futures market is bringing forward expectations for rate cuts. They were the first rate cuts in July, and now they're around May. So people are starting to get slightly more worried about the US economy. And actually, prior to this whole ETF kind of craziness, if you looked at the rate hike probabilities for December, and you can trace that over time on Bloomberg, and inverse the Bitcoin price, they were moving absolutely lockstep with each other. So it was

all about rates. And once we're over the ETF thing, Bob, when that's in January, I think then the discussion will be around the halving and rate cuts. And that I do think would be quite supportive for Bitcoin. I just giggled because I believe it's still a 35% chance in predictive markets of May. And they've been kicking the can down the road on predictive markets have on rate cuts for the last year. I mean, it was only nine months ago that we were supposed to have three rate cuts in 2023. So it shows what people's sentiment is. I just think it's important to point out how horribly wrong people's sentiment is about rate cuts. Markets have been consistently getting it wrong, actually, about when the Fed starts cutting rates. But it's more about what

the Fed should do and what they will do. And what we know from the Fed is they're consistently looking at backward-looking data points. And that's why the Fed always makes mistakes, sadly. They're all very clever people at the Fed. Literally always. I want to talk about something else. Since we are talking about institutions buying Bitcoin, it's important also to just talk about generally this massive increase in market cap that we've seen over the past week. So we've obviously seen market cap that was sub a trillion again, pushing up. I don't know where it is today. I can look on CoinMarketCap. You might have that data probably between 1.2 and 1.3 trillion, if I had to guess. Yeah, I should have looked, but that's the ballpark.

Last week when we had the fake pump, we saw altcoins just absolutely get destroyed when Bitcoin pushed up, given it all happened in an hour. This time we are seeing Bitcoin dominance continue to rise. It's making new yearly highs. So altcoins are still suffering, but some of them are doing actually quite well and outperforming Bitcoin, which is not something we've seen in a while. And to me, that's a very clear indication, especially with that bump in market cap, that this isn't just altcoins into Bitcoin and altcoins into Bitcoin. There's new money here. Do you think that that's... I've been saying it all week, so you can refute it so I can stop. But I've been saying all week, this time,

it feels like we've got some new money coming in from the sidelines. I can corroborate this with figures. So if you look at the fund flows for Solana, for instance, this is the darling. 47%, 48% of total assets under management have inflowed this year alone. So it's not huge numbers. We're talking sort of, I think it's around $50 million of inflows this year. But it just demonstrates that people kind of love Solana at the moment. I mean, I personally struggle with that relative to Ethereum and everyone's been hating on Ethereum recently, actually, this year and last year. That means it's time to buy. People are just hating on Ethereum because it's doing poorly

against Bitcoin. To me, it's simply price action and nothing fundamental. I think some people are concerned about Ethereum's transition to protodank sharding and sharding and how that all happens and the timing around it. They had the same fears over the merge and they had similar sort of fears over Shanghai, which was the release of yield. But actually, their track record is improving all the time. They've been a lot better at software upgrades. And I think, whilst there's a bit of a delay with sharding and what they call cancun um i think it's overhyped and you know ethereum is the only asset out there that offers a yield with a deflationary um compact you know element to it you know salon is still very much inflationary and as a yeah the only the only problem is that

the and i don't see it as a problem i think it temporary, but it's that the yield is 3.5% and you can buy a 5% and you can get 5% on a treasury bill, right? So once we once again have DeFi yields, and I think that will become whatever the yield is on Ethereum staking will become sort of the benchmark yield for all of crypto, right? Once that's inevitably above the treasury yields, I think we're going to be hearing a lot, a lot of excitement around Ethereum. Yeah, and I used to do this as a fund manager.

We'd do S&P yields versus the 10-year treasury yield. But there are different animals. I mean, you know, when you buy treasuries, you're not thinking about the price upside. You're just thinking about getting 100% back and then the coupon on top of that. With something like Ethereum and other cryptos, they're massive growth assets. And they have much more price upside potential than the opportunity cost is. Sure.

Earning interest while the price of the underlying asset you're staking doubles is very attractive. Yeah. So you're buying something that's yielding 3.5%, 4%, plus huge growth potential. And I think that's quite different to treasuries. Okay. In my mind, the next sort of key psychological level, forget charts, would be if Bitcoin somehow now pushes to 40, right? I mean, if we push above 40,000 on this same move, RSI be damned, lines on your chart be damned. Do you think that that would really get the ball rolling? I wrote a newsletter intro this morning.

Anecdotally, nobody's called me about this Bitcoin move. Literally nobody. Not my mom, not my dad, not my brother, not my friends. Nobody's asked me if it's time to buy Bitcoin. They haven't mentioned Chainlink. It seems that we're still, nobody's paying attention to this in my mind. And I don't think your average person is tracking the BlackRock ETF. Yeah, I think many people have discredited Bitcoin in the traditional finance world, looking at how much it's fallen from its peaks. It recovering back to 40,000, which is a very psychological level, I think would demonstrate

that Bitcoin really is back and it's back with regulatory acceptance. We can almost, I think, say that now. And that's the biggest hang up, I think, with many clients is that regulatory acceptance point. So hitting that level, I think will really demonstrate to you that it's not dead, like many people, naysayers have been saying. And so, you know, it starts to, you know, you see mainstream acceptance paralleling asset classes like gold. And, you know, in my mind, that would be a very positive step forward. But as we always know with Bitcoin, it's never a straight road to get to that level. It will not likely be quite volatile.

And don't forget, you know, you can look at things called Sortino ratios, which are a bit like Sharpe ratios. So that's risk adjusted returns. The Sortino is just measuring risk adjustedadjusted returns when the price is falling. And what you find actually is the volatility when Bitcoin price is falling is a lot lower than when it's rising. So you tend to see much greater spikes involved when the price is rising. In other words, it's a very rocky road up to get to new price levels, essentially. And if you really look back, all of the massive gains in Bitcoin are in very short periods of time, right? The rest of the time, you're like the bulk of the

time you're in a sideways market or really depressed. It's kind of floating down. It makes me feel uneasy when we see such sharp price rises as this. Of course. Because it's just purely speculative rather than, you know, and it is people are speculating on the ETF launch. But, you know, I think next year speculating on the etf launch but you know i think next year is very interesting and credit to galaxy i mean we've done some some interesting work on this trying to figure out how much inflow might be it's very simplistic work but i think it's it's good you know if there's 14 trillion dollars worth of assets out there um you have the

addressable market and you say 10 of people buy Bitcoin at a 1% allocation, that's $14 billion of inflows next year, which would likely be, that would be the largest on record. The largest we've seen in a year was in 2021 when we saw about $9.8 billion of inflows. So I think it's quite a fair analysis. Yeah. And BITO when it launched, which was the Bitcoin futures ETF, was the single most successful ETF launch in history. And that's because it got to a billion in 48 or 72 hours. People don't realize that the products we've had already that were launched in this space, not the Ethereum futures ETF, obviously, but the Bitcoin futures ETF when it launched was massively successful. Huge AUM, extremely fast to the point where they couldn't

even buy month-dated contracts and had to start buying two and three and four-month contracts. We have to also, I think, apply a slight dose of reality here because Ethereum launched its futures-based ETFs. And on a net basis, we've seen outflows. So that's a bit disappointing. But yeah, as I said earlier, everyone's hating on Ethereum at the moment. And I think it's just like, to be fair, BITO launched at the peak of a bull market, right? It was actually the top, just like CME and CBOE futures were in the previous top of the last bull market. So I think there are some people who are concerned that an ETF launch would just be another way for institutions to short,

but I don't think it's the same product, to be quite honest. Yeah, agreed. I mean, I think this is about, it's not futures-based, it's spot-based. It ticks many due diligence boxes and tracks the price better, as you said earlier. Yeah, we could see real money.

I've been asked many times because i did the fun players report to try and quantify just how much i'm trying to resist that because i know whatever number i come up with it will probably be wrong hey i mean you have one in a hundred chance probably of being even close because nobody has any idea but it is good to see people doing the work mark yusko came on the show once and he was like in the first couple years 30 billion but it was based on similar math, more on, I think, investment advisors and institutional total capital at X trillions, if they all allocated 1% or half a percent. Sort of the same thing. I guess yours was a little more retail-focused.

His is a bit more institutional. I just fail to see BlackRock launching an unsuccessful product. It feels like they will have their ducks well in a row in advance of this to make sure that this at least does a billion or two billion just so people talk about it. BlackRock is not launching it and getting 500 grand in AUM. The next step is figuring out what the seed is going to be. So whenever a fund is launched, there's a seed capital. No one quite knows what that will be but it could the seed capsule would be huge and don't forget you know someone like blackrock is a machine the largest asset manager in the world with a huge

sales and distribution team that have probably got a lot of potential clients sitting on the sidelines um that's why it's so hard to quantify just how big it could be. But then it comes at a time when there's a scarcity of Bitcoin production or about to be in the harbing. It's quite a positive outlook, I think, for 2024 in particular. Larry Fink could be the most powerful human being in the world. Certainly top five or 10. And he's on TV calling crypto a flight to quality, right? I mean, if you don't know that that's, first of all, I have no idea if he believes it or not. Frankly,

I don't care at all. But you don't get much better marketing for an asset than Larry Fink talking his book and beating this drum repeatedly anywhere that someone will listen. I would echo, that's what other clients have been saying prior to him. So during the banking crisis, we were speaking to clients and they were saying, I'm so worried about banking. I see Bitcoin as a flight to quality, as a hedge against this problem and government debt, et cetera. So actually, I don't think it's that far off the mark. I think whether it's marketing or not, who knows. But clients are expressing a very similar sentiment using Bitcoin as a monetary policy hedge and a banking crisis government debt hedge. Now, you know, there's

this whole QEQT experiment. A lot of people are trying to figure out how it's all going to end. I don't know. I think most people don't know, but they want some sort of insurance policy against it. And that will fall into the hands of some of that Bitcoin. Right before I let you go, I often co-host a Twitter spaces in the morning, which is the traditional finance spaces, as opposed to the, obviously the crypto town hall, which we do at 1015. It's at 8am. And I bang my head against the wall. There are Bitcoiners there, but there's always the naysayers push back. It's almost impossible. And I banged my head against the wall. There are Bitcoiners there, but there's always the naysayers push back. It's almost impossible. And somehow, I think it was on Monday, I orange-pilled almost all of them, including Danish, the host, who said as of Monday morning, his favorite things

were hating on Bitcoin and hating on Tesla. Those were his two favorite activities. And I simply made the point that the holy grail of any investment portfolio, especially when you see the 60-40 dying like this, is something with idiosyncratic risk that has a chance to act like an uncorrelated asset. So I went much deeper than that. I said you should at least have an allocation in something alternative, gold, Bitcoin, whatever that is, because 60-40 keeps getting crushed. But the final point I made was, even if you emotionally despise Bitcoin, if you hate it, if you think it's the dumbest thing in the world, if it's a Ponzi scheme, the very fact that we can show you the lack of correlation, that you can put 1% of it in your portfolio and improve your Sharpe ratio should make you buy it,

even if you don't like it. It even helps your portfolio as if it's going down up, at least it's not going down and up with everything else. Yeah, absolutely. And we've just had a conference in Lugano. This is after Plan B. We didn't attend Plan B. And we had 30 clients in the room and all expressing, which is unusual, actually, all expressing really positive sentiment towards Bitcoin and really keen to understand how it works in portfolio, fundamentally what's the demand for Bitcoin, all those kind of things. And yeah, it's the most positive sentiment

we've seen for quite some time. Any final thoughts before I let you go? Maybe a little bit of a retracement. And then I think there's real potential upsides next year like i've been saying this is quite an exciting point for yeah i posted that weekly rsi chart on twitter and some guy i get the classic so no direction thanks a lot right and i said oh okay i don't know down a bit then up there we go here cool that's my best prediction that i got james thank you so much.

I love that you always bring the data. We have the best guests here, guys. You know, people who actually can speak intelligently on things and back it up with information. So thank you guys. Follow James. His Twitter is a J Butter. What is your Twitter? J Butterfill. J Butterfill.

That's what I thought. At J Butterfill. If they're on this show, you should be following them on Twitter. That's that's really what I got. And I guess it's not called Twitter anymore. Thanks, James. Hopefully we'll see you here and on Crypto Town Hall soon. See you. Pleasure. Yeah. Things are heating up. It's getting really exciting around here. And it's great because it was really hard for the last, I don't know, year and a half to show up and try to convince you people that this was all going to happen with, you know, a quarter of the numbers and everybody's super depressed.

But here we are. And now we can ignore everything we just talked about in the fundamentals and just open the really pretty pictures with the squiggly lines and figure out what the charts are telling us. And of course, since it's Wednesday, I have my very own mentor, Christopher Inks, Texas West Capitol. Good morning, sir. What's going on, man? How are you doing this morning? Good. How's it feel to be so right? Man, people forget about it. It really hit me, man, what you just said there. It's been so difficult over the last year or whatever, and and trying to explain to people what's going to happen and um you know and then it happens and uh you know all the all the the people just coming out of the woodwork you know for the last year they just kind of disappear and you know they just leave it

and people forget that you know you've been saying this is exactly what's going to happen right um so it is what it is uh you know and people you don't you can't convince people this is exactly what's going to happen, right? So it is what it is. You know, you can't convince people. This is one thing in life. You know, you can't convince anybody of anything. People have to be ready, willing and able to open up to really listen. They have to convince themselves. And I think we kind of get caught up in that, especially if you really believe in Bitcoin and, you know, this idea of what it allows you as an individual compared against the fiat and the banks and whatnot. So we just keep talking, right? Yeah, we do. So let's take a look at some of the charts and see what they're telling us.

We were just kind of kicking around the idea of some retracement maybe soon, but also obviously the idea that we can push to 40 and then we can start talking. So the thing is, now you get those, like we were talking about daily RSI being, you know, 88, pretty much almost as high as it gets. You know, we can get into the low 90s. But then the idea that FOMO hasn't even kicked in. Nobody's even asking me about this thing yet. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. I mean, you know, this is one of the charts, anybody that follows me, you know, or follows the show here, I posted this chart and a few others kind of like it,

just showing different things. But, you know, the last time that I posted, I left this little note up here and I said, you know, listen, the expectations that it goes up, we were hanging right around this low volume note here. And I said, you know, nothing's changed. It looks like we're headed up. I said, if it happens to go down, you know, we've always got a secondary plan and there's a target area, but you know, I said, it's likely to set the stage for, uh, you know, for a price run impulsively into, you know, the 38,000 area, at least we're pretty close so far on this chart here, we've gotten up to, um, Oh guys, let me move this thing out of the way here so I can see my numbers. Uh, we ran up about 35,100 almost. Uh, this is that, um,

this is the BLX right here. So, I mean, we're almost there and I think we've still got further to go. You know, I'm looking at us next move up around 37,000 right now. So, um, I don't, I think I really kind of think that they have been talking about, which is we broke out through that range, you know, and I think we get that 38 to 40,000 area, at least on a way higher. I think we just kind of leave the range behind, you know, pent up demand or, you know, just pent up accumulation there for six, seven months. Things got to run a bit, you know? Yeah, we kind of had that area between 25 and 28.5 and then the area 28.5 to 31.

My expectations, we would chill out and we would make the level up in ranges and then kind of chill under 31. And as has happened many times in the past, I'll never forget that after Bitcoin lost 6,000 years ago, remember it went down to like four or something? Yeah. And everyone said it could never get back above six.

Right? You remember, it was like, it'll get to six, but it's going to get absolutely rejected. And you kept saying, it is just going to absolutely blast through. And it went like straight to 14 or something. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Up to that 13,000, yeah.

Right, but the fact that we're all asking for the retracement, if there's one thing Bitcoin does, it does not give you the dip you want to buy. maybe a little bit, but never kind of comes back. This is the asset that doesn't do the classic perfect retest. Well, you've been in here for quite a while, like I have been. And the one thing I've noticed is when everybody wants the dip, it usually doesn't happen. That's usually the point at which they were so convinced it was going to keep going down lower that they didn't get in. They were so scared. And then it finally does take off

and now they want it back. But what are you going to do? The thing just, it's been, like I said, ranging for six, seven months here. It's going to have some power on that move and some continuation, I think. So yeah, everything working out all right so far. Yeah. I was pointing out before, I mean, that daily RSI is high, but the weekly RSI is just hitting overbought. And when that happened over here, that was at 12,000 on the way to 65. So, you know, now we might get consolidation though, right? I mean, you do eventually need to see these daily and all these RSI's come down. But that can happen with just a couple of days of sideways action.

Yeah, exactly. And we've had that right now since, let me see here. What was it? Since Monday, we just kind of gone sideways between that 35 to and- 33-ish. 35 area. Yeah. Yeah. So it's a $3,000 range there. We've been consolidating in that. I mean, to me, it looks like a penny. It looks like we pop out higher. Like I said, my next target up is around 37,000. But I don't think that's, I think we do that. We pull back to right about where we are and then we go up higher once more to keep on pushing there. And, you know, again, I think one thing we got to make clear real quick here is, you know, a lot of traders when they come in, when they're starting out, you know,

they hear all about the, okay, you need to sell when it's overbought RSI or, you know, a lot of traders when they come in, when they're starting out, you know, they hear all about the, okay, you need to sell when it's overbought RSI or, you know, buy when it's oversold. That's just what it's getting good. You know, the reality of it is, the reality of it is, is that when it's overbought, what it's telling you is that the market is extremely bullish. And so that's why, you know, that whole idea of the market can stay, you know, irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Exactly. Exactly. Or when it's, when it's, you know, oversold, it's just really bearish. So, you know, it can continue to remain oversold for a while, especially on these, um, on these larger timeframes. So yeah, the weekly, like you showed there, man, it just got overbought and then it just kept on running.

Right. Um, we could see something similar. Yeah. I drew the pennant this morning and I just revisited it when you said it and it's breaking out already, actually. This candle hadn't wicked above when I drew it in this one here. Right. So, I mean, we're already sort of breaking out. Volume seems to be increasing slightly from this downtrend. So, I mean, maybe we're already getting that breakout. My only concern, which is what we're going to see here on the four hour and on the daily, just because RSI got so high, is that we probably will start to see some bearish divergence here. I mean, the daily, look at that thing, 88 RSI, right? You just got to imagine if you get another major push up after a few days that it'll have a lower RSI and maybe that gives us a bit of that, you know, retracement, but you can get these bear dives and then go up another five grand and get another bear dive and go up, you know, they're great signals but uh they're not the best when you're in a raging bull market exactly exactly um so but you know and so that that's you know that's that's the main one that's what we're all watching right um i've got a few other charts here let's cut through them let me kind of find where i'm at here okay uh everybody's all crazy

about link link is another one of those ones i've been talking about for a very long time. It dipped down below the range to around five dollars before it happened. I said, listen, it's accumulation. I said, we'll probably get a dip down below. That's going to be what we call a spring. That's where you want to buy. Of course, I got ridiculed because everybody said, oh, no, it's going to zero now. And here we are up. Oh, this is the wrong one. This is like Bitcoin. Well, look at that. That looks even better. It's just nothing but higher highs and higher lows. Yeah, yeah. We'll look at that one in just a minute here real quick. But this is the one here.

And so, again, we had that dip down below and it just kept on going up. And what we've hit, what is that? $11.64 so far. I think we've got to rally a little bit higher up here toward this $12.15 to $12.32 area, I think. But as you say, that would just be my three and we pull back here. So I'm going to see if we can get a pop out higher here. That's what I'm going to be looking for. But yeah, I mean, links broke out of the range clear clear breakout uh it's going up higher now this gave uh the entry yesterday so uh in my opinion so on monday you know here was the range i actually the first time in years i'm just like aggressively posting all coin charts in my newsletter and stuff i just didn't do it for

a long time because i didn't want to even try because the odds were so bad. But it was up here and it had just broken out. And I said, listen, you're going to want to retest at the top of the range if you get it. You don't usually get it on Bitcoin, but on Link. I mean, yesterday, obviously, I drew it like this, not time-based. But I mean, you got it a day later, literally like a perfect retest of the top. And now if you bought at 960, you had an opportunity of straight up to 1160. To your point, there's no bearish divergence here. This is just pushing into overbought. I mean, a lot of these look exceptionally good. There's a few I had. Injective, right? I mean,

this thing, and this is even more bullish because this wasn't at a bottom. This is continuation. I mean, Injective is at half? The all-time high. Most things are still like even links probably down 90% or something, even with this move. This is down 50%. And this was a kind of a reaccumulation range as opposed to being a bottom and just absolutely blast off. I mean, there's a lot of charts for the first time I'm seeing that are really breaking out. Matic. I mean, look at that. And look at the retest.

You got a retest of the descending line and the horizontal in exactly the same spot. Another thing you showed me to look for back in the day. Right. I mean, absolutely incredible. These are just looking great to me. There's yeah, there's a lot of great charts. Yeah. So, you know, we've got this one here. I'm going to pull up Matic here real quick. I think I've got it here because you just mentioned that. Nope. Yeah, I do right here. Yeah yeah um again bigger picture here um you know it looks like we've got some um uh reaccumulation here it doesn't look like it's got enough to go down really below kind of like this uh the range eq here here we are breaking out of that uh descending channel um so if we can clear this what is this

here this uh weekly pivot here right around 67 68 Um, I think we probably rally at least to the top of the range. It gets us up there around a dollar five. Um, and if we're doing that, you know, uh, ultimately I believe we just kind of rally up and continue up higher, um, up to new all-time highs on it as well. So, you know, bigger picture on that still looking good as well. A lot of room on RSI here to go still. Um, but I love the, the volume drop off in the range here. It's absolutely fantastic. Um, you know, and just kind of, then you get your local range here and take it off, uh, that link Bitcoin chart. Um, I think I'm going to start looking at more of these Bitcoin charts now. Yeah. Cause now you need to outperform Bitcoin or what are you even doing, right? Yeah. We all think you can sit in Bitcoin and make money right

now. So don't buy something that you think is going to underperform. Yeah. Yeah. And so we've got this great move right here and we've got this pullback. So I'm looking for a breakout through, what are this high here? This is 0003402. If we can get a breakout through that, I think we're getting up here to that 4118 to 4470 area. And as you see, to me, that's just wave three of this larger wave three. And if that happens while Bitcoin is rising against the dollar, you got a much bigger move on that dollar pair. So this is just showing you the potential. If you think that you can outperform. So this is just showing you the potential. If you think that you can outperform Bitcoin while Bitcoin is rising, you have officially found the holy grail.

Yeah, exactly. Real quick here, I've got some other charts. I've got Ethereum, Bitcoin here. This is the one we were looking at for a potential reversal off this area right here, this EQ of this demand structure and this S1 pivot on the weekly. You can see that weekly is oversold. RSI bottomed out and oversold on stoke RSI. Looking to see if we can get a reversal up out of here to kind of complete this, you know, wave four and then wave one and two heading up next. So that's what I'm looking for on that right now. We did get a bit of a pop there earlier. Uh, but you know, Ethereum still kind of struggling a bit comparatively to Bitcoin, but you know, again, uh, it, it did rally up first, you know, it rallied up from the June

2022 low, whereas, you know, Bitcoin had that extra drop down to, uh, November in, in November. So, you know, I mean, it is what it is. I think, you know, I think it's up there. Yeah. And James just came on and said, you know, and listen, coin shares like these guys are the researchers, right? He has a better gauge of what sentiment is and what people are viewing. And he was saying, this is as bearish as he's seen sentiment on Ethereum in a very long time. And he was taking as we are like the counter side to that, right? That's irrational and whatever. And when you look at this chart, everyone says it's over. Look how poorly Ethereum will never outperform Bitcoin again. It's done. Kind of gets you interested. Well, that's about the time that you really should start paying attention. So, you know,

let's see your Pepe, man, everybody's favorite favorite meme coin right um that thing finally found a low down there popped up had a great candle right here on monday um today it's popping up again i've got this initial target right there around 12 32 88 uh but you know again if we're breaking out above this uh 18 94 11 area here that should indicate we're rallying up to new all-time highs on that so you know if which i up to new all-time highs on that so you know if which i'm sure there are a lot of people that have held from here all the way down here you know they might be able to start breathing a bit easier as this thing uh potentially continues to rally here but it's looking good right now off this i mean if i'm looking here i'm going uh

one two three four that gets us that five so you know'll get a three, we'll get a four on the pullback. We'll get a five, at least probably around 15, 30, 50. And then, you know, so you get your one and get you a two on the pullback and then three will break out above that wave B there. And we'd just be looking for that day at higher as well. Since we're doing memes and I hate to, but I have to, because I actually posted one. Can you take a quick look at SHIB? Because this to me, like not not not in the same way as that but on my shib chart i mean if you pull this range this recapture right here after these sort of deviations below i mean this it did it right here it looks like a quick move to over a thousand i mean i'm not going to mention all the zeros but like if you even just look at this when it recaptures these range lows to, it should be heading right back up to the CQ at minimum.

Yeah, I mean, we're coming off that. What does that SHIB you said? I'm going to make you look at the dog. SHIB USDT on Binance. I mean, the idea, obviously, if you look at the whole thing is that we're way down. These are lines I have no idea. I drew them years ago but like this whole area here you know you're accumulating in that same massive sort of zone that we had you know back

here yeah i mean it's like you know right at the middle kind of of that idea and i don't know man this but as i pull into it it started to look really good i'll let you pull one up if you can find it yeah i haven't looked at shiv in a while we're good we can get fresh eyes on it well we've rallied up into the pivot here trying to um trying to uh consolidate right there at it same place where the local resistance here um so pop it outside of that would be good what are we on the weekly here uh weekly stoke rsi crossing bullishly and oversold and that thing just really retraced didn't it that looks like eight oh yeah yeah um but yeah so that thing retraced all the way to the uh real kind of support down here

um i mean for me i mean just big picture here this, I'd probably want to see a breakout of this particular diagonal right here. I'm going fishing for catfish here. I'm right at the bottom trying to catch it. Yeah, I'm looking at this. This looks like just three. You don't have to like it. You don't have to like it. I won't be offended.

Yeah, I'm just right here. It looks like just you don't have to like it you don't have to like it i won't be offended yeah i'm just right here it just it looks like three um let me see uh well i guess it could be ah shoot let me make sure here i don't like these where they're they're just kind of rallying i'm just kind of sitting over themselves there let me see all right maybe a Let me see. Okay. Maybe a one, two, three, four, and then maybe a one, two, three, four, five. Um, how far is that pull back there? Quick here. 70 and a half. Oh yeah. Look at that. 70 and a half institutional level pullback. Yeah. I mean, um, I like that we're here i want to see it clear this local area uh i'd probably then look for it to run up here around 834 if we can clear that odds i will probably break out above this swing high which then uh kind of gets us this target up here at

around 1490 and that's the way i would approach it um i think it's some possibility here but we're definitely going to want to see a good breakout here from where we're at right now. We're just consolidating where we were previously consolidating before we broke down. We did get support at the S1 pivot on the daily, you know, and now we're trying to break out through that daily pivot. So there's a good chance there, I think. But I definitely want to see those, you know, those kind of stepping the way I was talking about there to really kind of start seeing maybe. OK, then we'll look at stuff you actually like and not stuff that. No,

it'll probably be one of those things where I'm like, yeah. And then it like takes off. Right. Yeah. Yeah. You got it. Let me see what I got.

Everybody talking about Saul. That was another one. Somebody was in the comments yesterday saying, Chris told me to buy it at nine bucks. So I did. That's what somebody said. Yeah. Somebody said that. Yeah. I'm glad somebody listens every once in a while. I don't,

I don't normally give a whole lot of, you know, you should really be looking at buying right here. Um, but you know, this was one of them, uh, you know, and we've continued to break out higher here. Uh, man, and you know, I continue to update this chart and post it, you know, on my Twitter there and, or X or whatever it's called. And I think the last time I was posted was I was talking about attempting to break through this right here. And then, well, the time before last, I think. And then we broke through. Right. And just kind of continued up through the range. So this like link, you know, longer term accumulation here or reaccumulation. So from February through, you know, October. So nearly a year. So again, like Link, we should

be expecting some good movement up. I've got my wave three target up here around 78 and a quarter on that one right there. So obviously we're interested in altcoins here, but this is a select few. If you actually look, dominance has still raged and a lot of them are still getting sort of slaughtered. So how do you sort of parse that? Does it feel like you find these select few, but maybe, I mean, I just feel like if Bitcoin pushes to 40 right now, it's going to be altcoin palooza when it consolidates afterwards. That's exactly what I've been talking about, what I think is happening. It's going to happen.

We'll get this final big leg up into you know like 40 or something like that um and then we'll start getting some kind of uh you know consolidation a little bit time right and uh that's i think when also finally go because we do we are starting to see some of these really start you know inj like you said there uh you know saw a link we're seeing these kind of really making moves um and a lot of them maybe necessarily made those moves right they are kind of looking bottomishly like they're ready to you know so uh or potentially ready to and so yeah i think i think that's a good uh possibility what's coming up with that i'm gonna be looking forward to that anything else or uh we're yeah i've got a few stocks on

here real quick uh let's cook through them quick so I can get ready for town hall. We got five minutes. For sure, for sure. I've got MicroStrategy here. This is the one I was talking about when we were back down here. I think on the show here, as a matter of fact. That thing just kind of taken off like a scalded cat here. That one's up from $3.30 or so up to about $4.30, so $100 run.

Only in Texas do things take off like a scalded cat. Go ahead. Yeah, you know. Based on the height of wave four here, wave five potentially has a 621 target or so. I've got coin. Coin's been following my chart here. We did get the rally off the demand structure EQ here. It looks like we've got maybe a leading diagonal done, one, two, three, four, five.

So might pull back a little bit and fill in this gap and then head up. But I've got a wave circle three target up here at around two 97 and a quarter. Tesla. I think there's a good chance this may be bottom tier looking for a breakout above wave X at two 78, 98. So much fun. So much fun. And there's so much fun.

Oh yeah, exactly. Exactly. Six 32 target up there. If we can break out above that, I think that sets us up pretty good for that. But that would be three of three here. So, you know, that's just that target and continue up higher. Microsoft, I had a watch list of earnings this week. Man, everybody killing earnings yesterday.

Snap, Microsoft, Visa. I mean, just everybody. But Microsoft was one of the ones that's really watching along with Amazon tomorrow. But it looks like we're good to go. We broke the second wave here. So I've got a target up there, $404.50 on this rally heading up there with Microsoft. So yeah, I mean, just everything looking like a lot of fun to be to be a trader right now it's always more fun when everything's going up yeah of course even if the volatility is down nobody's shorting so you know whatever that's right that's right more more fun to catch the volatility on the way up all right man awesome thank you and it's been great having you on uh

crypto town hall so often by the way you become like that huh kind of a few times there good time huh it's fun it's like uh you there's too many people talking to be quite honest so it's like sometimes my add kicks in and then i hear my name and i'm like oh shit what are we talking about but uh otherwise it's good to have interesting guests that uh that at least keep my attention and everyone that is in 20 minutes everybody follow tx west capital on uh x it's called x that time finally for maybe the first time ever my attention and everyone that is in 20 minutes. Everybody follow TX West Capital on X. It's called X that time, finally, for maybe the first time ever. And we'll see you on Crypto Town Hall. Chris, thank you very much, man.

See you here next week. Yes, sir. We'll see you then. I'm going to take him off. I saw somebody had a comment. Where was that comment? I don't know if it's still here. Somebody asked me to play.

Scott C said, play the Pump It Up song. These are from the old. A lot of you probably are not the same people here, but we used to do this a lot. I literally forgot I have these sounds. You guys hear that? I don't even have headphones. I think so. Now I won't even know because I can't hear it.

Is this the Pump It Up song? You guys are literally going to have to tell me because I don't have a speaker plug into this or is it a Benny Hill Don't you know, pump it up. Don't you know, pump it up. I'm missing out. Don't you know, pump it up. We've got to pump it up. Don't you know, pump it up. We've got to pump it up. Pump it up. Pump it up. Pump it up.

Pump it up. Oh, yeah, that was it. I can hear it now. You've got to pump it up. Don't you know, pump it up. You've got to pump it up. And don't you know, by the way. This is the other one we used to do.

Whenever I would play like Gary Gensler or Jerome Powell, we would do this. guess the bull market is back guys oh yeah feels good feels good that we can uh do stupid things on youtube and it only makes like 80 of you leave. Guys, that is all I've got for you today. I really do have to go. Thank you. Goodbye.