The Wolf Of All Streets - What Derivatives Data Can Tell Us About The Crypto Market | Greg Magadini, Amberdata

Episode Date: January 10, 2023

Greg Magadini: https://twitter.com/genesisvol Amberdata weekly newsletter: https://amberdataderivatives.substack.com/ Amberdata Youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@AmberdataDerivatives ►► Sponsored by PRIME XBT! Sign up for a new trading account using the link below & receive up to a $7,000 deposit bonus with “wolfofallstreets” promo code. https://u.primexbt.com/WolfOfAllStreets ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wolfofallstreets Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #trading Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:30 What is Amberdata 5:20 Where is Bitcoin right now? 7:40 Interest rates 8:50 Personal approach to crypto 10:45 Derivatives data 17:00 How to use data for trades 25:00 Crypto derivatives exchanges 28:00 Derivatives for newbies The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

When it comes to trading and looking at crypto markets, there's obviously quite a few ways to skin the cat. We often talk about on-chain analysis here. We obviously draw pretty lines on charts and do technical analysis, and we've had plenty of people who focus on fundamentals. Well, today I've got an incredible guest, Greg, who's going to talk about futures and volatility and other ways to creatively use data to understand what's happening in the crypto market. You guys don't want to miss this one. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I am Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Streets. Before we get started, please go ahead and subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Let's go. morning right after landing on the West Coast. Today, I'm in my friend's office with his drums and his flight simulator back there. He's a pilot. It's pretty cool. Yesterday, I got on there first time and I successfully took off in a Cessna and landed it back at Gainesville Regional Airport

in my hometown. So basically, I am the professional pilot, if you guys didn't know that. So as I said, listen, guys, there's a lot of ways that you can approach the crypto market and a lot of data out there. And I think for most retail traders and most people who don't understand it, it's extremely difficult to parse, very difficult to understand. And so I think generally they end up just scanning crypto Twitter and following anonymous farm animals, financial tips that are not financial advice. Obviously here, we try to bring you a bit better information than that.

So I've got an incredible guest today from, from Amber data. I've got Greg Magadini. What's up, man? How are you? Hey, Scott. Thanks so much for having me on. Happy to be here. Yeah. Well, thank you for suffering through all of my tech issues, talking to my AirPods here and all the stuff we've going on. But you obviously are an extremely advanced trader. I've been looking at the stuff that you guys do at Amber Data, of course, and some of the topics you sent over that you're interested in. Can you give us a very brief, I guess, the brief overview of what Amber Data does, what you do there, but then how that leads to your market approach specifically.

Yeah, absolutely. So Amber Data is a holistic crypto data company. We cover blockchain data, market data, like spot prices from various exchanges, futures prices, such as like there are a bit, as well as option prices. So I'm sort of the niche option guy. I'm the director of derivatives here at Amber Data. So I look at futures. I look at options. My background is as a trader. So I'm a prop trader. My background, I've been trading for about 13 years.

I traded at Chakra Trading in Chicago, as well as DRW in Chicago. And then I've been in the crypto space personally since 2013. 2013, you're early. What got you into crypto in the first place? I always have to ask when I hear that because anyone who's earlier than 2016, I automatically get triggered and I'm jealous that they were earlier than me. Yeah, that's a great question. So I was actually in college with one of my friends, Linda Shea, who runs Scalar Capital now. And we were doing a research report on the gold standard. And so we've got all these books and it was dense, boring reading. And we were like, all right, we got to change our thesis.

And I had a friend who told me about Bitcoin at the time. I think he was buying drugs or something. And he was like, let me know about it. And I told Linda, I was like, hey, what do you think about doing Bitcoin instead of the gold standard? And she was totally into it. So we did a research report. We downloaded Tor, went on the dark web, saw where people were spending Bitcoin. And at the time, Bitcoin was $7.

And I was like, this thing is sketchy. I don't want to go to jail. Didn't buy any at that time. But at least got my feet wet and understood what kind of the Bitcoin world was doing. And then while I was prop trading at Chopper Trading, I was still following this market. And when Bitcoin finally broke about 200, which was a previous high in late 2013, early 2014, that's when I finally got my feet wet and bought the top at $1,000 and wrote

it down for a bear market. So that was fun. Imagine buying the top of Bitcoin at $1,000 and being upset. But interestingly, most people who were in space in 2010, 2011, 2012, who bought at $7 sold at that $1,000 top. You were buying that top, but really a lot of people I know have sort of long-term depression and can't believe they sold when they sold Bitcoin at $1,000 after seeing it go all the way up to 69,000. And now you talk about buying that at the top, right?

And anyone here and in the comments would kill for the opportunity to buy Bitcoin at $1,000. I don't think we're going to get that chance again. Do you? I don't think we're going to get $1,000. No, I agree with that. So what's your overall view, I guess, of the context of the market right now? And then we'll dig more into the specific strategy. I mean, do you think that we're in a bottoming process? Do you think we have a lot further to go? Do you think the macro is playing a huge role or not?

Yeah, that's a great question. So just kind of speaking from spot prices, this is going to be my third bear market. So 2014, 2015, 2018, 2019, and now 2022, 2023. So one thing that I've sort of seen from the past two bear markets is a couple of things. One is they take a while, 12 to 18 months to really kind of bottom out. And then the other thing is that we have low volatility in bear markets. People love to talk about crypto when crypto is going up and they're really excited. And when crypto prices are crashing, like no one cares about crypto. So we're sort of seeing both of those trends play out right now. So this makes me think that we probably have, call it another six to 12 months of at least

a bottoming out formation or consolidation. I personally think the macro picture still has some headwinds. We're kind of at the tail end of potentially a 30 to 40 year credit cycle. I don't know what that looks like. To me, there's still a lot of risk there. So I kind of think macros can drive crypto as a risk asset. I think I'm really interested in Bitcoin around 10,000. Those are sort of the price levels that get me jazzed. So that's kind of how I'm thinking about it and what I'm looking for. Yeah, I think that aligns with a lot of people's thinking.

I mean, everybody has their level that they think could be the bottom 10, 12, 14, 8. I've obviously heard down to three, but it seems there's very minimal expectation that we'll just skyrocket from here in the context of everything that's happening. Having been through all those cycles and researching it in 2013, being that early, are you surprised at how correlated it has become to macro? Because obviously, you know, the 2018, 2019 bear market of crypto had very little to do with what was happening outside of the crypto market, right? I mean, obviously, in 2018, at the end, we had sort of a quick, you call it a bear market or correction in the stock market, but that was brief.

Yeah, that's a really interesting question. So I'm not too surprised by the correlation, because I think, so everything's sort of built on top of interest rates. So interest rates are sort of like this discounting mechanism that affects everything. And so the fact that we're seeing, let's go back a year ago, and like the 10-year treasury is trading in the one handle and crypto yields, stablecoin yields were about 9%. Now we're seeing a huge contraction. And a lot of that's because the yields and risk-free fiat has gone up a lot. And so to me, that makes sense that everything sort of gets discounted. One of the big narratives that we've seen is that everyone you know, everyone's kind of surprised by the gold prices.

We're having inflation headlines. Why isn't gold sort of a safe haven and trading at $2,500? Well, a lot of that, in my opinion, is because the discount rate went up. And so holding bonds. Yeah, exactly. Holding bonds is more interesting than a zero yield gold asset. And the same can be said theoretically for Bitcoin. I don't think

the fundamentals are as clear cut in the crypto space, but those fundamentals still apply loosely. And I think that's what's happening. So let's talk about your personal approach then to the market. You said that your background is obviously in derivatives and options. I would say that you can correct me if I'm wrong, but I would say that's still relatively immature and inefficient in the crypto space, at least versus other markets, which should offer some opportunity to somebody who understands it, right? I mean, any inefficiency, eventually it'll be arbitraged out. But at this point, it seems like there's still probably a lot of little quirky opportunities that most of us don't see. Yeah, absolutely. So here's how I think about it.

Crypto is sort of an unsolved game, so to speak. It's only been around for 15 years, if you think 2008 is sort of the true beginning. And so no one's got 80 years of experience. Now going to crypto wall, that's even a shorter time horizon. The first options that traded on first options that traded on darabit were late 2016 and we really didn't start seeing like true activity until mid-2019 and so there's a very short horizon of experienced crypto options traders and the volatility surface itself or how options are priced across expirations and strikes isn't a

solved game. It's kind of anyone's guess still. So we've seen in the past four years, a lot of different volatility regimes. And what I mean by that is like, how does volatility react when prices are going up? How does volatility react when spot prices are going down? What is the degree of curvature in the volatility surface? And so there's a lot of opportunities there for asymmetric trades or asymmetric opportunities. You know, it's not guaranteed profit, but probability, you know, talking of probabilities in the long run, those are good opportunities. So happy to sort of dig into that. Yeah, I mean, I'm going to share your screen if you don't mind, and then you can talk, you can go more specifically into what you're talking about here.

Yeah, absolutely. And so just for anyone who's new to options, I just want to do a quick two-second overview. So people look at implied volatility as opposed to straight option prices. And the reason why they do that is because if you look at an option ladder, you have a bunch of different expirations you can choose from. You have a bunch of different strike prices you can choose from. So just like insurance policies, if you buy a 30-day policy or a 30-day option, it's going to be cheaper in dollar terms than a one-year option. But you can't compare dollars to dollars. You have to first convert it to a standard unit, and that would be implied volatility. What is the option implying the volatility of the underlying asset will be?

If you go back to the insurance analogy, what's the probability of your house catching on fire versus not catching on fire? And so now you can compare one of your options to 30-day options, or options that are 10% out of the money versus options that are at the money and really get apples to apples comparison. So that's why people look at implied volatility because it kind of standardizes all the units and you can make good trading decisions from there. So one of the first things to keep in mind is that implied volatility is a future estimate of the realized volatility going forward. So one of the things I like to start,

one of the places I like to start is in the realized volatility space. So the first thing we have here is the volatility cone. So what this is showing me is that one day realized volatility or how Bitcoin is moving, 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 90-day, 180-days, all those different measurement windows, I can really see historically how volatile has Bitcoin been. So right now I'm looking at the past one year. I can see the 30-day realized volatility has a median of about 62, a high of 95, a low of 24. And we're currently trading at that 24 level.

So realized volatility is really low let me extend that back to 2012 so back to 2012 now we can see that the high and the men kind of squishing the charts let me just kill those real quick or let me kill the max and so now if i'm looking at the 30 dayday over the past decade, I can see the median still around 67. The lowest value we've seen is around 16, and right now we're at 24. So those blue lines are the upper 75th percentage tile and the lower 25th percentage tile. So we know that all the readings below 51 are in the bottom 25% of readings. Right now we're near the ultimate minimum of the past decade. So this gives you a

really good perspective of what kind of volatility has Bitcoin seen in the past and where could it go in the future? And now from there, we can kind of make our own opinions on what can happen in the future. One of the interesting things about trading volatility is that it's mean reverting. So, you know, we might see these extreme values, but in the long run, we go back around a median or at least an interquartile between the 75 and the 25% reading. So we know that at some point realized volatility will go back up towards that 67 level, but we just don't know when. And so that creates the real trading opportunity for options. Go ahead. I'm just going to let you go, man, because this is really interesting.

And I'm actually like, I blew up the screen myself on my laptop so I could follow along. I'm basically just taking a course here. So go ahead. Oh, awesome. Love it. Cool. So one of the things to keep in mind is that because volatility is mean reverting the sort of the final price level so to speak in terms of ball

is known by everyone and the timing is the true uncertain um the true uncertain uncertainty in the market so one of the things that you know buying options or selling options provides is that there's a lot of asymmetry. If you're long options, the most you can lose is your premium, and you can sort of make multiple hundred percents if you're right. If you're selling options, it's the opposite. You have a fixed payout and sort of an unlimited theoretical loss if you're selling calls, and then a wide loss if you're selling quotes. So it creates a large incentive for people to want to be long optionality. Now we just looked at the realized vol, realized vol is at decade lows. So what does that mean? Well, the trading opportunity,

in my opinion, is actually a little bit counterintuitive. You might want to buy vol because vol is low, but that's kind of the obvious trade, so everyone's doing that. So if I look at the relationship between realized volatility and implied volatility, what we'll see here is that implied volatility for seven day options is trading about 39,

while the realized volatility is about 17 for those seven day measurements. So implied volatility is about 17 for those seven-day measurements. So implied volatility is trading, call it, 23 points above realized. So even though vol is cheap as a level, relatively speaking, it's actually really expensive. And you can kind of think of it like this. Vega is the Greek that tells you how much an option value changes for 1% change in implied. And so a seven-day option is going to have something like, call it 11 Vega. And so if you're paying 23 points above, you're looking at $250 of overvaluation in terms of Vega.

So you could translate that overvaluation to dollar terms by doing 23 points times 11 which is the vega level um and then get the dollar translation so an at the money option has a huge overvaluation right now theoretically speaking something to keep in mind is that you know just like prices ball can flip on a dime so So we saw this with the FTX debacle. And this is what that looks like. You see, you know, I was looking at that. I was like, what happened on November? Oh, yeah, exactly. A ball can shift like, you know, 80 points on a dime. So that's something to keep in mind. So is there any questions to this point? Yeah, no. And so how does that translate to actionable intelligence for a trade? Because you obviously, you have access to all this data. Let's say that you know that everything that

you've explained, now you approach Deribit or even perhaps the CME if you're an institutional trader or CBOE. How do you actually now make money trading that? You said, obviously, that for you, that does not mean to go long volatility because you explained why that's actually quite expensive and a crowded trade. And what does this, I guess, all translate to in price? What does a mean reversion in volatility mean for someone as far as where price is sitting? Yeah, that's a great question. So mean reversion. So in simple terms, mean reversion would mean if you're long options, your options are, you're buying them cheap and then forget what spot prices

do. The implied volatility will increase the value of those options. And then if you're kind of sharing the same opinion I have, which is maybe nothing truly happens here and we still kind of consolidate between 15 to 20,000 for a while, then I'm looking at, say, call it 90-day options. Let me look at that and say the first quarter of the year, I'm thinking nothing happens and we're still in this range.

Then I could theoretically start selling some options that are 90 days out. And then theoretically, this realized volatility, you can see right now it's at 45. But the truth is, is that this is including November and a lot of high vol moments in that calculation. So theoretically, the realized vol will start to match the seven-day realized. And now this 46, 90-day option, 46 vol, theoretically, is going to be overvalued using the new realized volatility that we'll see in the future. So that's kind of how I think about it. One of the things that's really interesting about sort of using auctions is just like diversifying your portfolio where you buy bonds and you buy stocks and you kind of have

like an all-weather portfolio. Using auctions, you can sort of diversify your bets. So, you know, I have an opinion that 15 to 20 are interesting levels. That's sort of a delta bias. Then I have an opinion on volatility in the options market. Are these options overvalued or undervalued? That's going to help me determine my trade structure. And then all of a sudden, I kind of have two bets in terms of volatility and in terms of delta. And then I can pick out an exploration that makes sense to me. And now I kind of have a third bet. And now I'm diversifying all my opinions. And theoretically, I'll have positive expected value on those opinions. Now I can sort of isolate the

edge. So I might be wrong about the price levels, but right about volatility. And so still come out ahead, even though I'm not totally right about everything. Do you utilize this as a hedge against spot positions? Obviously, a lot of the conversation in the last few years and talking about sort of inefficiencies that have been arbed out, the cash and carry trade was like the trade forever, right? I mean, presumably that's what outside of GBTC, of course, but presumably that's what the BlockFi's and Celsius's and the three ACs of the world were doing, because it was a, quote, risk-free yield trade, they could make their 15%. Then BlockFi can hand 9% of that to you,

keep their 6% and keep moving. But seemingly that trade is gone. Is there a trade right now that's as obvious as the cash and carry trade? Or do you really have to get granular at this point to figure out how to make money and there's nothing that sort of everyone can do to earn yield? Great question. So let me address a couple things in the past as templates. So to your point on the cash and carry, so let me just jump to this real quick. This is a report that we're releasing next week. It's going to be really interesting, but we covered the basis sort of chart. So you can see here, this is like the cash and carry trade. We have percentile distributions. So you can see the middle line of the box is the mean, and we have sort of chart. So you can see here, this is like the cash and carry trade, we have percentile distributions. So you can see the middle line of the box is the mean, and we have sort of the outliers. And then 2021, for I call it 90 day futures, you could, you could have sold the cash

and carry, you could have locked it in at the at the peak there around here at 50% annualized yield. So all you have insane, insane, absolutely unreal. I mean, you have counterparty risk, but if you have a good exchange like there a bit, you park your BTC there, you sell the future against it. You just lock in a 50% yield and then that's your opportunity. We can see that in 2022, all that has compressed.

So we're not seeing those same ranges that we've seen in the previous three years. And there's a couple reasons for that. One of them is that people are just getting wise to this trade. Another one is that there's institutional investors that sort of stepped into the market who have capital to sort of take the other sides of these trades. And they're happy with 50%. The reason that it trades at a 50% cash and carry in the first place is because you have retail investors who are really enthusiastic about getting along Bitcoin and they're trying

to play it from $20,000 to $70,000 on a leverage basis to make multiple hundreds of percents. They don't care that they're paying 50% carry because they're trying to make 400% on their trade overall. Or they don't even understand that they're paying 50% carry, but yeah. Yes, that could very well be as well. So that's kind of where the opportunity of this trade comes in. And in the options market, you have something similar. So what you'll see here is going to be the skew. So this is called a risk reversal skew. What we're looking at here is going to be the call implied volatility minus the put implied volatility. Let me just highlight the 30 days here to make it less noisy. But in January

of 2021, which was kind of like this breakout rally above 20,000, and we went up to 36, 40,000 and whatnot. We had a lot of FOMO in the options market as well as the futures market. And so what we're seeing is that 25 Delta calls, we're trading 53 points above 25 Delta puts. And so an easy trade setup there is that you buy Bitcoin, you sell that 25 Delta call against it, and you use the proceeds to finance a put. And so this is called a caller. And sort of the asymmetry that you're locking in there is that the put protects you on the downside, and you still have sort of the upside all the way up to your short call.

And that was something like a three to one risk reward locked in. And so the worst you could lose is one, the most you can gain is 3X. And then you're never going to get whipped out on stops or anything like that. And so that's kind of a trade idea around this type of situation where there's a lot of FOMO in the ball market. So now we have a flat dead crab sideways, call it whatever you want market. So now we have a flat dead crab sideways, call it whatever you want market. So are there opportunities still to take advantage of in this market? Or is it a hell of a lot easier when the FOMO is there and when you have crazy volatility? Yes. So again, my bias is still on the shortfall

side, which sounds crazy to a lot of people. But there's a couple things there. So one is there's that variance risk premium, especially evident with the short term options, because we're looking at the most recent data. So there's that sort of, we call it 23 points of all that is overpriced. And then there's something called term structure roll down. And so what we're seeing here is that if we're looking at these fixed maturity term structures, seven day, 30 day, 60, 90, 180, the 180 rolls down to the 90. And so that costs it four points of all, the 90 rolls down to 60, that costs another four points,

the 60 rolls down to 30, costs another four points, and the 30 rolls down to seven, which is another point. And so not only are you making time decay from being short the option. You're also making sort of the variance risk premium from the realized to implied relationship. And then you're making sort of the roll down. So if I'm selling the 60-day option, it's sort of rolling down the term structure.

You could call it shadow theta, which is basically the drop in implied volatility just from going from one expiration to the next expiration. You can sort of think of it as a yield curve almost. And as the different expirations come into life, then you're going to kind of reflect that implied volatility as opposed to when you actually sold it. I see that the tab at the top there is Darabit. I mean, is that really the only gig in

town for these kind of strategies in the crypto space? I mean, most people here aren't, you know, calling their investment advisor to go short Bitcoin on CME. So yeah, so Darabit is about, you know, call it 90% of the crypto options market. And not accessible to Americans, of course, but yes. Yeah, unfortunately, right? And then Paradigm is sort of the institutional block trading RFQ system that people will use to sort of pre-negotiate trades and settlement, settle them on Darabit. Now we have LedgerX here in the US, which is a small exchange,

but I like the team a lot. Great team and everything. It's just more limited in terms of strategies you can do. So you don't have the same sort of leverage to go short ball. I mean, you can do covered calls, but you can't do sort of the structures that you might like, like butterflies or 1x2s and stuff like that. Delta Exchange is in India. They have a few altcoins, altcoin options, so like XRP and Litecoin, stuff like that. So exchanges in India, they have a few altcoins, altcoin options, so like XRP and Litecoin, stuff like that. So that's pretty interesting. People who want

to trade optionality on those instruments can find out there. And then Bybit just launched its options in August and Bybit's a really successful futures exchange and spot exchange. And so now you have options found there. The kind of interesting component of Bybit is that unlike Darebit, which has options that are settled in the underlying coin, meaning I'm trading Bitcoin options that are cash settled in Bitcoin, Bybit has it settled in USDC. So that makes it a little bit easier to trade the strategies that we know, such as like

the cash secured put, it becomes harder to manage when it when it's paid out in Bitcoin, because there's a lot of like negative convexity as we approach zero. But if it's in stable coin, it's just kind of a more defined risk. So that's, that's a very interesting exchange as well. OKEX is sort of the second biggest next to Deribit. So they definitely have some volume on their exchange as well. But hands down, Deribit's the number one. I think for a lot of people, this probably sounds like you're talking in Chinese, right? Or in Greek, I guess. How can somebody who has no really experience with options or very limited knowledge start to actually, you know, learn more and actually use this? Because, I mean, there's a much better way to manage risk than going and using a perpetual swap

and setting a stop loss, right? There's so much more advanced hedging that you can do and ways to make sure that you don't lose all your money and get liquidated, which is what people do. I mean, most people think of options in crypto as like 100x perpetual swap. Yep, that's a great question. So obviously there's some simple strategies that don't require sort of a lot of background

and options. So if you want to sell a covered call, you know, that's a simple yield enhancement strategy that you can sort of Google and figure out the easy way. Now, if you want to understand about options pricing and sort of the theoretical assumptions behind the Black-Scholes model and why the volatility surface is priced the way that it is, there's one book that's called Let me it's by Nettenberg and it's called option pricing and volatility that's sort of the introduction Bible to

Two options in general and then you in Sinclair wrote a book called volatility trading That's sort of the more advanced version that you would read after that once you kind of understand the basics. And now you can start to understand more of the pricing mechanisms and the opportunities that historically have been found in options. So those are two books that I really recommend. We have a YouTube channel with some educational content as well. So if you just go to Amber Data Derivatives in YouTube, you'll see some of our videos that we've made. And then Darebit actually has options. Educational Academy. Yeah. Exactly. So those are great places to start.

And can retail, can your average person access the data on Amber Data? Is it institutionally focused too? Who are you guys building this for and how are people using it? Yeah, so we actually have two core products. So we're mostly institutionally focused. We have an API with a Python built module and that gives you access to raw data as well as sort of our derived metrics that we've built internally. So that's sort of what a lot of the banks and hedge funds use. But then the website that I was just clicking around in this video, that's accessible. At least there's a free tier accessible to the public. And then for the institutional guys who sign up,

they get the kind of behind the paywall charts as well. So it's kind of segmented. Yeah, exactly. It's segmented into two. So any last thoughts on sort of your expectations for 2023? I mean, clearly, you think that we're in a consolidating downward trend, I think. Hard not to agree with that. Does it concern you at all that that's the consensus? You know, I... Or is it just such a rare environment where the macro. You know, I... Or is it such a rare environment where the macro is so bad

and the Fed is so transparent with what they're doing that it's just, it would be dumb not to think that. Yeah, I'm not concerned about it. I still kind of, you know, when I'm in crypto Twitter, I think a lot of people are still thinking like this is the bottom. So I'm not even sure that it's completely consensus across the board. And if I'm looking at the macro space, like the market seems to really want to trade up right now.

Like we have CPI coming out this Thursday. We'll see how that reacts. But you know, the way that the markets are trading right now, yields are going down, bonds are going up. Stocks are kind of having a little bit of a footing here and we've had a good week in crypto i think ultimately this is sort of bigger than everyone so like the central

banks essentially are tied to if we have inflation or not you know has printing money you know when has printing money historically speaking not affected price levels and devalued fiat currency? You know, is that trend really set in stone? I mean, we have a huge precedent to say that it is. And are we at that tipping point right now? We also have sort of a geopolitical risk that, you know, we're going from a globalized world to potential deglobalization. To me, that affects supply chains. It affects national free trade, stuff like that.

And we'll see how that plays out. That's another big question mark in the cards. And then, as I alluded to before, we're at this tail end of a, call it 30 to 40 year bond market rally. And if I'm, one of the things I like to look at a lot is Japan. Japan to me is sort of the most advanced indebted situation in the Western world. Right. Exactly.

And so, you know, we've seen a huge move in dollar yen last year. And so I kind of want to see what happens there. I think the best case for Japan is we go back to deflation and then they can kick this can down the road. But if we don't go back there, I'm curious to see what happens. Amazing insight and definitely different than most that we've had on here. And I see the very favorable comments that people really enjoy it.

Where can everybody follow you and actually check out Amber Data after this conversation? Yeah, absolutely. So pro.amberdata.io, that's going to be our website for the GUI. And then we also have a newsletter.

I'll go ahead and drop the link to that as well. And then we have our YouTube channel and a weekly podcast that we do with crypto ball traders. So I'll give you the links to that. And we can maybe just YouTube channel and a weekly podcast that we do with a crypto ball traders. So I'll, I'll give you the links to that and we can maybe just put them in a show notes or something. Yeah, absolutely. We've got the Genesis ball, Twitter or whatever in the, in the show links as well. I know already, well, dude, you're, you're welcome back anytime.

I absolutely love the insight. And like I said, for a while there, I was, that's the first time usually I'm like talking to my producers and thinking about the next questions. And I actually just ended up literally zooming the entire screen in and watching what you were doing there for about 10 minutes straight. It was extremely interesting for me as well. You know, I've obviously dabbled in options, but I love when people get really granular and detailed with it. And so I really enjoyed it. And I personally learned a lot. So I'm assuming that everybody else did as well. Thanks so much, Scott. It was great being on. I really appreciate it. Yeah. And everyone else I failed to mention at the beginning, obviously, the sponsor that were sponsored by PrimeXBT. So you might be listening to this later on Spotify

or Apple Music, which you can always do with all of these daily live streams as well. Tomorrow, I will be back with Tom Dunleavy from Masari, who's been here quite a few times and always has some really creative views on the market and interesting data to share with us. I will be coming off of a red eye

and a very long drive. So it's all pending my flights being on time and me making it at the tail end of it all either. But the plan is that I will be here as always tomorrow at 930 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. Greg, thank you so much once again. Everyone else, I will see you tomorrow. Peace. Let's go.