The Wolf Of All Streets - What Happens To Bitcoin If The U.S. Strikes Iran?

Episode Date: June 19, 2025

Sponsored by Ledn: Don't sell your bitcoin. Get a bitcoin-backed loan. Check out: https://www.ledn.io/ Markets are on edge as Bitcoin traders hedge for a drop to $100K and geopolitical tensions escalate. I’m joined live by Mauricio Di Bartolomeo from Ledn to break down what this means for your crypto strategy, how Bitcoin-backed loans work in volatile times, and why ETF inflows are still surging. Plus, we dig into Trump’s stablecoin push and whether it could lock in U.S. dollar dominance through crypto. Mauricio Di Bartolomeo: https://x.com/cryptonomista In the second part of the show, Dan from The Chart Guys will share his market analysis and some trades. The Chart Guys: https://www.youtube.com/@ChartGuys ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://archpublic.com/ ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://x.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io/ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Ledn The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

We're once again forced into a situation where we have to discuss geopolitics in the context of markets, which is not my favorite situation to be quite honest, but with the United States considering an entrance into the war between Israel and Iran, it's worth discussing what that could mean for Bitcoin. And I've got a long time Bitcoiner here to join and discuss and Mauricio from Levin, we have a lot to talk about. And of course, Dan from chart guys on the back half can't wait to dig into this conversation. Let's go. The world seems to be getting crazier and crazier and Bitcoin is still just kind of hanging in there.

I mean, trading at $104,781 when we have tariffs and wars escalating all over the world. Seems like everybody needs to calm down and stop panicking, to be quite honest. But I'm going to go ahead and bring on Mauricio now. I mean, here we are. I'm always like, I don't wanna do geopolitics. I'm not a war expert. I don't wanna talk about any of it. And frankly, it saddens and depresses me.

So I hate to be in a position where I have to discuss what it means for assets or markets, but that is effectively our job and people care, right? But I mean, maybe just in your mind right now, Bitcoin is where it is, you know, why is that in the context of everything that's happening? Yeah. Hey Scott, good morning. So I have an interesting, you know, connection,

not necessarily to this geopolitical situation that's happening, but my wife's family is from Iran and I'm from Venezuela. So I'm somewhat familiar with the dynamics in these countries and really, broadly speaking, familiar with the dynamics of the collapse of a currency, the collapse of, you know, full collapse of faith in the government and institutions. I've seen what that's like and what people, how people typically react or how they reacted in my case when I was in Venezuela and what I hear from my family's relatives and such from Iran. And there, obviously, when an event like this happens or when there's a looming threat of everything, every institution locally being completely abolished or dissolved, you start thinking,

it's all about self-preservation, right? Like, how do I keep my family safe? How do I retain the power of my assets? How do I keep any of what I've built over my lifetime? And the mind usually goes to, you know, am I physically safe? Do I have to leave? Do I have to, you know, leave Tehran or do I have to leave Caracas or do I have to leave? Do I have to leave Tehran?

Or do I have to leave Caracas? Or do I have to leave Barquisimeto? So that's like number one is how do you get out of the country first, yourself physically. Then when you got that covered, you start thinking about your assets. And the first thing you'll start doing, typically speaking, is you'll start a fire sale

of everything that's locally held. Every asset that is connected to the system or would have to be sold to a local buyer. So think real estate, vehicles, businesses, inventory, et cetera. And what you wanna do with those proceeds is immediately ditch the local currency next, right? Because you're likely, everybody's gonna be trying

to do the same thing. Everybody's gonna be trying to get rid of their local currency, the Bolivaras, in the case of Venezuela. And so the bid on the other side to turn those bolivares into dollars is very thin and people take their pound of flesh. So you're no longer dealing with a rational market. You're dealing with whatever the other person is willing to sell you these dollars at. And really, you're not, beggars can be choosers in these situations, right? So I remember Venezuela, when we were looking to fire sale Albolivar, you would call

up all the guys that used to sell dollars. Obviously, at this point, or in these environments, the bank stopped working, there's no bank you can go to to buy your dollars, there's no, you know, central body, you have to do this in the P2P markets, broadly speaking, So all those protections also go away. And if the guy has dollars, you'll buy dollars in cash. If the buyer has, if whoever's selling you those has tether on Tron, you'll buy tether on Tron. If they have Bitcoin, you will buy Bitcoin. And typically you would prefer things that

don't rely on banking rails and you would prefer things that can be moved pretty quickly. So stable coins and Bitcoin shine in this moment. And in fact, what I would expect to see from a situation sad as it is on what's happening around the world and all these wars, the people in the countries that are impacted are very likely going to rush towards Bitcoin and stable coins in this moment. This is the time and the place for which this technology was built. This is why the number goes up. It's because it helps people in this situation. So I'll pause this rant for these two minutes. It's a very solid rant and I think you mentioned one of my favorite memes,

which is that I always say, people just want dollars and they're willing to do it the fastest cheapest way, which is stable coins on Tron, which you mentioned, right? So I think obviously fast and cheap and accessible wins. But I think we have learned both in the case of Venezuela and places all over the world, not even just in geopolitical conflict, but just when they have any sort of financial wobble, they generally want dollars more than they want Bitcoin.

And then we listen, stable coins are the topic right now. I mean, we know we obviously just finally passed legislation. I can show you. I mean, this is nuts when you look when you cook through these stories on stable coins. I mean, circles trading at like a six or seven X from the moments pre-IPO the other day when this app passed. We know the genius stable coin bill is likely to get passed. I actually had a conversation yesterday with Hagerty,

Senator Hagerty, who was the author of this, which will be coming out. But I mean, Trump wants this done. Everyone wants this done. Bascent saying exactly what you did is that crypto's push will lock in dollar supremacy. I mean, stable coins are the thing right now. But I mean, I don't think it's, it's, it's not shocking to me. I've been, I write these, these predictions every year, just mostly for fun.

But last year, this year, I've been waiting anxiously for stable coins to reach $500 billion worth of market cap. And I think the supersonic growth of stable coins to me is almost inevitable because eventually the United States and the regulators understand, and they seem to be getting there now, that this is a tool for the dollar and it helps the US in more ways than one. Number one, it gets people, it gets dollars into people's hands easier. Like look at the situation that's happening in everywhere

around the world right now. People want to escape their local currencies. And the best way for them to do so is to have a US dollar base or peg stablecoin. It's very challenging for people to use dollars outside of that wrapper. If you're a person in Tehran, you would likely need to have a bank account somewhere outside of Tehran.

That is very, very challenging with a stable coin address. You can just download any type of app or wallet and spin up an address and receive them within minutes. And so it's, it's just far superior as far as an instrument than a dollar in a bank rail or on a bank rail. And the other piece is each one of these tokens, each one of these dollars directly goes to buying US debt, which is another big benefit in a time where foreign buyers for this debt seem to be dropping left, right and center. And so I'm not

surprised to see the embrace. In fact, I think it took too long for them to get here. But I finally see that they're here and they're putting the guardrails in place for people to really go and drive these things to the world. Again, we can argue what we want, whether Bitcoin is more censorship resistant. We can see what's actually happening. There's no argument. We all agree where the money should go, but we can't argue about where the money is going. Literally, Senator Haggard, he said to me yesterday exactly what you did. He said stable coin buyers are going to be the biggest buyers

of US treasuries in debt. He said it. And listen, as a depositor, as a person, think of yourself as a person that's, you're a foreign national, you're not a US person. When you're holding dollars in a bank, you're holding Euro dollars. These Euro dollars are most often not insured for deposits.

So you have no deposit insurance in the dollar deposits you have in these banks because they're not covered by FDIC. When you're buying a US Treasury, you're buying it from an authorized issuer most often, and that issuer is required to hold that into treasuries, meaning your dollar is guaranteed by the full faith of the United States. Now, we can debate whether how much that's worth, does that make you comfortable, would you prefer Bitcoin? But if the option is having a euro dollar deposit in an offshore bank that doesn't

cover, that's not FDIC insured, it actually gives you, I would argue, even better protections as a holder or saver to have it on a stable coin. Yeah, I mean, Paolo, I had him on before from Tether and he basically has said it publicly but jokes he's like the biggest risk to Tether and stable coins is the money we have in fractional reserve banks that they're forcing us to keep there as backing. Like in Mika, for example, they have to keep dollars in European registered banks as part of it. And we saw with Silicon Valley Bank that those banks can just fail. And then the buddy's got to happen with USTC if the Fed hadn't have stepped in or

the Treasury, you know, that we know what would have happened. You know, and I think it all goes back to what is the type of reserve these banks are buying, how much how much how far are they buying in the maturity curve? Because again, if they're getting overnight deposits and they're buying those, and they're buying 10 year treasuries with that, and the 10 year treasury gets dropped because of interest rate dynamics,

you're gonna have a mark to market loss. So you can't even repeat. So that's why you had to go in, and what's the BBFTD program that the Fed put? Basically like the Fed had to open a window that said, hey, I know your 10 year treasury doesn't sell for what you bought it for right now, but I'll take, I'll give you full pop if you put it as collateral with me for those dollars. So you can meet your withdrawals and you don't have to basically shut down the bank. So they,

they have all these instruments and mechanisms that they can use to keep banks solvent per se, as long as banks are playing by the rules to Fed sets, which is by my treasuries in the maturity curve that I want. And so it's sort of like you scratch my back, I'll scratch yours, right? Like you buy my 30 year because I need someone to buy my 30 year, but if somebody comes in and you're in trouble

for buying it, I'll help you. That's kind of how I see it. All right, so let's pivot back from stable coins to Bitcoin because at the end of the day, regardless of what people are doing right now, we both agree what they should be doing, right? We, I think, both believe very deeply in Bitcoin. We believe that it's a hedge against all this nonsense

and that in a situation where countries are melted down, we have geopolitical strife, should buy Bitcoin, memorize your seed phrase, self-custody and exit the country. Right, so let's presume that that's basically your thought as well as mine. You would think in that scenario that price would maybe be following these insane inflows, right?

We know that Bitcoin ETFs have been wildly successful. I know you have some takes on who's buying the Bitcoin and why maybe it's not going up, but then I wanna spend a bit of time because you have found exceptional ways to actually use your Bitcoin so that you could live your life without having to sell it and exit. So first a quick conversation on why you think the price hasn't rocketed when we see these crazy inflows and we know what's happening around the world and then let's dive deeply

into what you're doing at Letit. Definitely. So I think there's a few reasons why I think you're not seeing these waves of price appreciation that many of us would expect to see once you see these numbers in terms of the inflows that we're seeing in the market. Not so much just around the ETFs, but there's also massive inflows going into these Bitcoin acquisition vehicles or these companies, whether that is debt or equity issuance, they're just billions and billions of dollars flowing into these entities.

And people are sitting here puzzled as to why, why is all this money flowing and why is Bitcoin price sitting where it is today? So I would say there's a very different buyer this time around or this cycle around. Like if you look at the people that are buying ETFs, or if you look at the people that are investing into these acquisition companies, and more so the people managing these acquisition

companies. Yes, they have a mandate to buy Bitcoin. Yes, they have a mandate to have it on their balance sheet and deploy that cash. But at the same time, they are competing against dozens of now other treasury acquisition companies that have been doing this for a while. They have the first mover advantage in the case of MicroStrategy, and they have an average cost that's much lower than these guys because Micro started buying at 20. So Michael could actually go up or go out and say, I bought it at 110. That's fine. My average is still in the 60s and the 50s. That's phenomenal. But if you're a first time buyer and you you got, you know, a couple billion dollars to deploy and you went out, you market bought it at the top and you create, you yourself created the

blow off top and then the market sold off, you're going to be seen as the company that bought the top. You guys are not great executors or you're not executing the strategy the same way others should. And so when they're buying these things, they're not going out and putting market sell orders. A lot of these companies are still sitting on this cash waiting for a dip. And what I think you're going to see is you're going to see a lot more muted downside to Bitcoin. Because if you look, if you look at the dips we were seeing, they're all getting absorbed and just getting right bought up.

But the second we start cranking over 110, that demand just kind of dies off. Like there, nobody really wants to be the guy chasing Bitcoin higher right now. And so what I expect to see is a muted downside throughout the summer. I think dips are going to get bought. I don't yet know who will be the market by chase order. Maybe it's going to be a short seller like a Jim Channels or somebody that does a pair straight and is forced to close the position because of a dislocation and they market sell to cover their short and drips is higher. But these methodical guys that have a mandate to surgically buy this Bitcoin at the best price

possible, they're not going to be the taking us to $121.50 anytime soon as per me. Well, let's talk about what you actually do with your Bitcoin because of various reasons because all of us want to hold our Bitcoin forever and never sell it. That's really, really hard when you have to actually live your life. Obviously, we'll go ahead and bring you letting up here. But interestingly, you were one of the first and one of the biggest that was offering Bitcoin back loans, but you actually went into Ethereum back loans as well.

You started offering yield products and I noticed of late that you have now made a very definitive decision to scale back from those things and just focus on Bitcoin back loans, which is the single thing that will allow people to not sell their Bitcoin, remain tax efficient, but also actually live your life without selling your Bitcoin. So can you break this down for us? Yes, so I believe so just briefly in a nutshell, what does Letitin do? Letitin lets you use your Bitcoin as collateral to get the dollars you need without having to sell your Bitcoin if you're in a position where you want to make a new investment or need cash and just simply don't want to sell your highest and best performing asset. It's a very simple process.

You come, you pass KYC, we're a regulated entity, so we have to do KYC. And then once you do that, you can submit an application and you can have the money you need typically within the same day, within hours typically actually. It depends if you choose stable coin or dollar disbursements. The reason we built Lettad was really to solve our own problem. I started mining Bitcoin in Venezuela with my family in 2015. I set up another mine in Canada with my best friend, Adam, in 2017. And we kept running into the same issue, which was we had Bitcoin income, we were on a Bitcoin standard, but we had fiat expenses. We didn't want to sell it. And none of our financial entities gave us a loan back in 2017.

And we thought that that was a massive opportunity because Bitcoin is the world's best collateral, both for the lender and the borrower. I've, I've set this ad nauseum, but for the borrower, you can be a person in Colombia or Madrid and you can access a loan in the same terms, which is really financial inclusion. This wasn't possible before Bitcoin. I couldn't underwrite gold in Spain in the same way I could underwrite gold in Venezuela. I can underwrite Bitcoin in the same way because it's coming to me and it's the same uniform asset. And for the lender, it's great because it trades 24-7. I can

liquidate it in the case of default. I can underwrite credit uniformly. So it's just better collateral. So that's what the product does. Now at LettIn, we are a very simple business, and we like to be debt focused on what we think is the biggest opportunity ahead of us. Bitcoin back loans are a multi-billion dollar opportunity today. And I think that is going to 10x over the next two to three years. Why? Because holding a hard asset and borrowing a weak asset when done responsibly can be a virtuous transaction that is great for the lender and for the borrower.

An example of this that most people will be familiar with is a US mortgage. A US mortgage is a ginormous leverage short on the dollar, anchored by a house, and most often sold to you at a subsidized interest rate by the government that is well below inflation. And so what happens here is you're short on the dollar just phenomenally. Your house is, you know, I think the biggest misconception in finance and the way they gaslight a lot of people today is they make you think the dollar is stable

and everything around the dollar is moving. It's akin to being told that, you know, the universe gravitates around earth, right? And so it's not that the earth runs around the sun. It's like the dollar is the center, it's the stable one, and everything around us was moving. That's actually incorrect. The house is what's staying,

like the house is what has gravity, and the dollar is what's moving around. And so you're shorting the dollar, you're doing really, really well. Every so often, the equity value of your house jumps. You then take another loan to buy a different house, and you keep doing these these transactions, which is a short dollar long house. In our case, we let you go short dollars

long Bitcoin, which I argue is much better. And, and effectively, this is what you do, you're shorting bad money, you're shorting weak money, and you're holding good money or a good asset as collateral. So that is what Letten allows you to do. And people that use these products responsibly, I can speak for Letten's experience, we've been in business since 2018. Every person that's used our loans responsibly since we started offering them has done well financially. It's why they keep coming back. It's why our business is as big as it is today and why I think this is why and why we want to focus on doing just this. Bitcoin yield is great, but it has a very different risk profile. Ethereum,

yes, it's a great rail for stablecoins. I don't think it has the same long-term investment profile that Bitcoin does. The less things we do, the better we will do them. We at Lenin believe the best restaurants have the smallest menus. So that's what we want to do. Bitcoin-backed loans loans better than anyone else. Yeah, I'm looking at this. Loans funded since 2018, $9,844,239,307. I mean, that's a big, big number. There's a real thirst and appetite for this, obviously.

Do you think if they pass different tax laws, that would change? Or do you think that this isn't really about taxes, it's about not selling the Bitcoin? I think there's both things at play. People love the fact that it's very tax advantageous in most jurisdictions borrowing against your Bitcoin is not a taxable event where selling that Bitcoin is a taxable event. I would say even in places like Germany, for example, where they have no capital gains on Bitcoin after a year, like they're still demand for products like this. It's not necessarily just the like we service companies that are in in very sort of tax favorable jurisdictions like BVI, etc.

They still use these products because they keep the upside on the collateral asset. etc. They still use these products because they keep the upside on the collateral asset. It's not always just the tax that you have to pay on the sale. It's keeping the upside. The other pieces around Bitcoin, you know this Scott, like Bitcoin, that's I think 80% of their move over the course of a year in like 10 trading days, right? Or you have to be in the market at all times. You cannot time this thing. And so a lot of people choose to borrow just so that they can stay in the market because they have a long-term positive view on Bitcoin. And they know that if they sell it and try to buy it back, most often they'll never time

it right and they won't just get more Bitcoin by timing the market. I know I tried to do that when I was having to sell to pay my expenses and then buy it back. I never got back the same amount. Or by trading off points. Hence why we started this thing. Oh, exactly. Hence why we started this thing. It's really about staying long, being patient, and not trying to time the market, but spend more time in the market. And so how, when looking at this, it says borrow from 12.4% APR, obviously, a lot of people probably look at that and be like, that's pretty high rate. You know, so obviously, you want that to come down. But

long term, it's the same as your house, right? You're you're I mean, people love their mortgage payment you talked about before, because even if it seems high now, it's really low in 30 years when you're making the exact same payment. adjusted. Yeah, correct. And listen, will these rates should these rates, would I like these rates to be lower? Yes. Do I think these rates should be lower?

Hell yes, because this is much better collateral than property, than houses, and basically anything else you could use to back a loan. Why are these rates so high today? A few reasons. Number one is banks in the US were not able to get involved. In fact, they were punished by interacting with Bitcoin. That changed. And that is also, with that, they've allowed them to start participating in this space. You saw the big announcement from Cantor that they're coming into the space with Bitcoin back loans. JP Morgan was out the other

day saying they're going to start lending dollars to people holding ETFs. Those guys that they understand companies like us have issued billions of dollars at double digit returns with ever having a loss in a Bitcoin back loan. They're seeing this and they're saying, we want that yield. That yield is phenomenal for that risk profile. And so they are going to start bidding these down. We've already dropped our rates significantly this year. I think that trend will continue. Now I will caution people to compare Bitcoin-backed loan rates to mortgages, because a lot of people

look at the mortgage and think, oh, that's a free market rate. That's not a free market rate, really. The bank is asking you for all these, you know, there's all these incentives for the bank and the risk return for the bank is very different on a mortgage because they are borrowing money from the government at a particular rate that the government is fixing or subsidizing. The government's telling the bank, I want you to lend that mortgage at this rate because I want the housing market to be in this particular condition.

So the bank borrows from the government, has a predictable spread, and then originates that loan and sells that paper off to a publicly subsidized entity. So they have privatized profits, socialized losses. And it's very different for me to issue a loan if I'm getting the whole backend done and secured by the government. They're gonna tell me the rate I have to lend at. It's not the free market.

So what I would compare this most often is to a private lender, perhaps not necessarily a tier one bank. And if you compare it to that, we're getting very, very close. And I would argue that we're going to be under it probably within 18 months. So those are the sort of two considerations that I would mention when looking at rates and comparing. Now, the other thing I'll say is even at these

rates and higher rates, last year, our clients saw their collateral appreciate eight times more than the interest they paid us. So it's really the interest rate plus the rate of appreciation of the collateral asset. So when you consider all those things, I think these products still make sense today and will even make more sense down the line. Yeah, absolutely. So for full transparency, I've gone through the whole process. I've actually tried, decided I've done it. I participate. It's extremely easy, extremely, extremely, extremely easy. But maybe you could just break down what that process looks like.

I know we only got a couple more minutes, but I want people to know what it looks like to actually take a loan. Yes, as you mentioned, it's that simple. That's one of the value props here at LettIn. You come in. We are regulated. So you have to do KYC.

Once you complete KYC, you can submit an application. It takes two minutes to do that. We'll tell you the loan address or the collateral address for you to send the Bitcoin into. Once the Bitcoins receive, you usually have the dollars that you need in nine, nine, right now our average funding time is 9.6 hours. So most people that come in in the morning

are off with their dollars in the afternoon. The loans can be repaid at any time and the loans start at $500. So if you want to test how this whole thing works, you can with $1,000 for the Bitcoin, you can go in and out and test the pipes and understand how everything works. Our loans don't require monthly interest payments. That's really important because our loans are global and they start at very low amounts. So if you're a person in Colombia considering these loans and thinking, how am I going to send $5 interest payments a month?

Don't worry. You don't have to. All interest accrues until you decide to repay the loan. And you can do that at any time. No penalty. Bitcoin is the only collateral we accept. Collateral, importantly, collateral let in. The only loans we offer as of July 1st is custody loads. So when you put your Bitcoin as collateral with let in the only loans we offer as of July 1st is custody loads. So when you put your Bitcoin as collateral with let in that Bitcoin sits in custody of either let in or one of our funding partners at all times.

It does not move. It does not get lent to generate anything. It just sits there. When you repay the loan, you get your Bitcoin back and that's pretty much it. That answers how other people who are competitors may be able to have offered different rates because they're doing what banks do. They're playing with your record. And we also importantly, we were the first lender to ever do proof of reserves.

We have the longest running proof of reserves program in the industry. So please, I welcome you to check this out. And if you're interested in any of these products, don't just trust what I say, diligence us, go ask the right questions, demand proof of reserves. If I leave it at that, if you demand anything from any one of these services, demand proof of reserves. The rest, you can try to negotiate, but do not take anything that does not have it.

It's crazy. All right, I know we're like in the last minutes here because that went by super fast. Anything I missed, anything last you need to mention, it's levin.io, L-E-D-N, just so people can see that. If that's too small up there, highly recommend you at least checking this out and trying it, but sure we missed something.

Hey, no, I mean, we'll catch it up on the next one. There's always so much to talk about. I'm really curious to see how this whole genius bill unfolds. I'm excited to hopefully come back on and break some lower interest rates in the future for our lows. But I know that that's going to happen throughout the year. So yeah, I appreciate the time. Thank you so much. You were there on spaces that one day. It was like literally perfect for anyone who was listening to Crypto Town Hall. Somehow we dove into this deep conversation

on Bitcoin back loans and pristine collateral. And then you show up in the like, in the audience, I'm like, request, request, request. Because we know each other got there. So I thought it would be perfect to have that follow up here on YouTube. So thanks for taking the time to come out and discuss all of this with us.

Oh, it's a pleasure, man. See you at the next one. All right, guys. Thank you so much. Give Ricio a follow. It's right down below and check out leaden.io. All right, guys, thank you so much. Give Mauricio a follow, it's right down below and check out letin.io. Thanks, man.

Cheers. All right, guys, and now you know, cause it's Thursday that we got chart guys here to break down what's going on in the market from the technical perspective. And I feel like every time we talk now, Bitcoin's just like 100, 405 grand. Yeah, it's tightening up,

but that again also means volatility is coming. We've got a standard, what I call an equilibrium, which is just higher lows and lower highs tightening up, and that's going to break, I would say, next week at the latest. And we know our base of support is down around 100,000, the resistance zone up around 110 to 112. And, you know, if we break, if we break 100,000, let's just lay out that scenario. It's essentially, the way that I'm doing Bitcoin right now is I don't have to think. And I like that when I just make a clear statement.

You know, if 100,000 support were bullish, I don't have to do any analysis. I'm just, I'm leaning back in the chair, not doing anything. If we break 100,000, I've got to start paying attention a little bit just because that means it's starting to look eerily similar to 2021, uh, it's not game over for the bulls, but it just means I got to pay

attention now. So we're watching to see if that happens. You know, if that does happen, I'll zoom out to the monthly chart just because we've been holding monthly EMA 12 at every period of consolidation on the way up. And so bulls want to see that continue. And that will be, you know, right around 90,000 into next month. Uh, but you know, we're just patiently waiting.

And as you were mentioning, you know, for me, it's almost like the alt season of this cycle is in crypto stocks and, you know, and it's, it's the logic makes sense, right? So you've got prior cycles, you've got to be on coin-based finance, cracking, whatever, to trade Bitcoin, Bitcoin profits go into altcoins. Now tons of capital are using the ETFs and it's just sloshing around in the stock market world where you've got, you know, CEP running 400% plus in a few days with, with Cantor.

And you've got Circle putting on a show, you know, Circle in the last nine days has done what Bitcoin's done in terms of gains in got Circle putting on a show. Circle in the last nine days has done what Bitcoin's done in terms of gains in the last year and a half. And so traders like me are laser focused on these things. Circle Friday was really fun to trade. It reminded me of Blue Sky Breakout Bitcoin in 2017, where you break resistance, you get follow through, you just trade sideways, build a new level, another leg up. And, you know, of course, all the other low cap names that are following micro strategies model that you've mentioned here briefly. And it's just, you know, the for me as a trader, no fees in the US trading and this kind of volatility that's not present anywhere else in crypto.

It just makes perfect sense to be focusing here. And that's just an attention suck away from the altcoin space. Totally agree. I 100% agree with that take. And I think it's only gonna get crazier when we have 50 or 100 of those Bitcoin treasury companies trading publicly. And it'll do the same thing. There'll be a boom, a blow off top. And I expect Circle to do within the next few days. We're set to potentially gap up tomorrow and I'll look for it to have its major run, top out, pull back 40% and then tighten up sideways,

just like CEP is doing. Speaking of which, I'm keeping an eye out for a weekly high or low, because again, after this amount of volatility, you scout the tightening range is the most likely scenario. for now it's just you know you trade circle you gap up tomorrow I take profit I buy five minute oversold for an hourly higher low it's just the playbook of what we did in you know bitcoin's prior significant blue sky breakout runs which is very different this year again a lot of sideways trading, grinding.

You know, I recall being able to all in market by a new all time high in 2017 and know that I'm going to get an instant five to 10 percent in the next two hours of that bull break. And obviously that market's gone because of the liquidity. But it makes perfect sense. Like why if I'm big money, why am I going to run something like an altcoin where every you know if it goes up 50%? They got how many bag holders from years past are gonna say I can finally get out break even Versus something that it's all-time highs zero resistance very illiquid much easier to run

You know the bell rings Friday afternoon or yesterday afternoon Wednesday And it's just the the buyers just push it up another 8% because it's very illiquid. And so they're just taking advantage of that lack of liquidity to the upside and it will work to the downside eventually as well. But again, it's just the game changes and I love watching how money's flowing. And as you were mentioning, the genius act and all that we're seeing, you know, MasterCard and Visa dumping over the last couple of days.

It's inverse. It's a paired trade. You're short MA and V and you're long circle and coin. And then you've got the coin news coming out and PayPal dumps. So I just love watching the capital moving around as people are looking towards the potential revolution you know, revolution of the financial industry gaining some concrete steps with this genius bill Absolutely anything else you're watching Just just circle and coin because you know, they started standing out last week on on Friday when the market was really worried about Iran You had these names standing out and closing at the high of the day And then it's just been nothing but relative strength and coin exploded on Friday as well. You know, these names obviously very closely linked,

coin and circle. And so I'm just gonna be day trading coin and circle in both directions, but obviously a long bias for now. And that's my focus, you know, for at least the next few trading days in the next week. Love it. All right, man. Well, thank you. Dan always cooks right through it,

gives us all the alpha and like eight minutes or less. It's amazing. I people you can give Dan a follow chart guys on X of course and his YouTube channel and we'll be back next week. Damn man. Thank you so much. That was great. See you Scott. All right, guys. We'll see you soon. Let's go.