The Wolf Of All Streets - What Moves Crypto Markets? Live Panel With Joshua Frank, Yoann Turpin, & Conor Ryder

Episode Date: April 6, 2023

►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/ ►►BITGET GET UP TO A $8,000 BONUS IN USDT AND GET MASSIVE DISCOUNTS ON TRADING FEES! 👉 https://thewolfofallstreets.info/bitget ►►NORD VPN GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ Today's guests: Joshua Frank (The Tie): https://twitter.com/Joshua_Frank_ Yoann Turpin (Wintermute): https://twitter.com/YoannTurpin1 Conor Ryder (Kaiko): https://twitter.com/ConorRyder Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

A few weeks ago, the banking system started to wobble. And as liquidity came back into the system, we saw Bitcoin make a massive move from $19,000 to almost $30,000, topping around $29,000. Now struggling for the last few weeks around that number, right around $28,000. But what really was behind that move? And what can we look forward to in the future

once we dig into why this happened i've got three amazing guests today we're going to talk about bitcoin and inevitably the rest of the market and well you know these uh conversations on thursdays take a life of their own i've got joshua frank from the tie conor router from kaiko and of course john turpin from winter meet you guys do not want to miss this stick around what is up everybody i'm scott melker also known as the wolf of all streets before we get started please subscribe to the channel and uh reverse bump the like button. Do whatever you want to like button. I know that a lot of you guys are weird and have strange predilections, and you're going to do whatever you want with the like button, no matter what I tell you to do.

So anyways, as I said, I've got three amazing guests today for our weekly round table. Obviously, we've sort of started honing in on these longer form, larger conversations, going to Twitter spaces on Tuesdays. As I mentioned, if you guys missed the last one, we had Balaji, Caitlin Young, excuse me, Caitlin Long, Anthony Scaramucci, Meltem Demir is a huge one last week.

Of course, Saylor the week before. And this coming week, Mike Novogratz, obviously Galaxy's CEO, and Chris Giancarlo, who is the former CFTC chairman, who actually wasn't an asshole and liked crypto. So much so that we called him Crypto Dad, and he wrote a book that was called Crypto Dad. Wouldn't you kill to have guys like Brian Brooks and even Jake Clayton, God, and Chris back in power as regulators in the United States? Because whatever we have now, it ain't working. But we're going to talk about all of that and more right now. I'm bringing on Josh Connor. And of course, Yohan, I'm just going to call you Yo because you put it there and it's better

that's cool yeah I mean do you get confused though when everyone the street's like hey yo like to anyone do you respond no matter what um it says to be a recurring joke as well but it's this again so I'm not I'm not original is what you're telling me not not the first time I've been told that I made my dad jokes that they don't always land to be quite honest so listen as i said in the intro there's quite a little quite quite a bit to dig into as to why we might have seen this move uh effectively from 19 000 to 29 000 now there's some people who believe it's because banks collapsed and there was a move to Bitcoin as a store of value or a flight to safety. I spoke with Saylor. Even he said, I don't really think that's what happened.

I think it was a bunch of crypto natives selling their altcoins to buy Bitcoin. And that's what's happening. But, Connor, I know you've talked about this quite a lot, that it might really be more about liquidity. Is that an accurate assessment? Yeah. Yeah. In my my opinion it is anyway um look like yeah if you told me that bitcoin would be up 60 for the year 20 for the month of march considering the the regulatory issues it's faced i'd probably laugh at you at the start of the year to be honest um it don't get me wrong it's been impressive um and the narrative that kick-started the whole move definitely does make a lot of sense. Like Bitcoin is this decentralized store of value that the banks can't touch.

And for the first time since Bitcoin's inception, we saw a crisis of confidence in the banks. So, as I said, the reason for the narrative makes a lot of sense. But the problem I have is when people probably equate this like 20% rally in March to a lot of new money coming into Bitcoin and people pulling USD out of smaller banks and exchanging it for Bitcoin and holding all their savings in Bitcoin. I have a bit of an issue with that. And as I said, yeah, largely due to the liquidity or like specifically the lack of liquidity in Bitcoin markets right now. So at Kyco, we have a bunch of different metrics measuring liquidity and one of which the one we like to use probably the most is market debt. So we sum the bids and the asks on both sides of the order book within a certain percentage level

of the price. So that kind of measures the dollar liquidity, I guess, on an order book. And what we're seeing right now for Bitcoin specifically is 10-month lows for liquidity and market debt is a 10-month low. So that's lower than ever since the FTX collapse. It's hit new lower levels now

with the issues we've seen in the last month. And I'm sure we'll talk more about in the podcast about the reasons why liquidity is so low. But yeah, in short, basically, I find it kind of hard to trust any rally in crypto prices right now, purely because of the illiquidity on order books. It's, yeah, as I said, you have less liquidity, you have more volatility in markets. There's less support to the downside, but also less resistance to the upside. So we just see these massive price swings when there's low liquidity in markets. And yeah, as I said, it's kind of it's hard to trust any rally right now in crypto. Josh, is that aligning with the data that you're seeing? Yeah, I mean, I think liquidity has definitely dried up on a number of different exchanges.

I mean, remember that there's also very few trading venues that people can trust these days, and that's especially important for institutions. Whereas institutions were trading on FTX before, there's now obviously concerns around Binance and institutions are nervous deploying capital on Binance. So I think that's a fair assessment, right? And obviously, low liquidity also means we can move very quickly down as well, right? So low liquidity doesn't just mean movements to the upside. It can also mean very short movements to the downside.

I pulled up similar data and seeing similar patterns. Obviously, one of the things as well to note is that Binance was offering free Bitcoin trading, I believe, against BUSD, which is now removed, which probably has some impact. But even looking at US-based exchanges, we're seeing the same impact. So it seems to be kind of brought across the board. But we're seeing from institutions, and by institutions, I mean traditional institutions, very much a hesitation in this market, just given that there's not many venues that they can trust, which might be partly leading to the problem that Connor is describing. Yeah, obviously, you're at one of those that you're at one of those institutions that's trying to

move within this market with size, right? I mean, Wintermute now in the sort of the wake of FTX, you guys have been described, even I think by Forbes as one of the largest trading institutions most successful in the space. So when we, I'm sort of taking the blame as well, but I'll explain why we're here. We are, one, we're not the largest, we're the second largest spot market maker in the crypto space.

We are quite big in the DeFi space as well, of course. Obviously most of Bitcoin trades in C5 and there's been some shift of the volumes from C5 to DeFi, so actually just less exposure I would say from traders to Bitcoin. To give you an idea I think it's more of a shift of blame to 3RO guys or a few other firms that could have managed their risks much better and you know bring some trust across the space but we trade about sort of three five billion dollars a day these days but sort of late I would say November 2021 was probably the peak so we're trying more like 25 billion dollars a day and now the market

probably increased actually between 2021 and now. So we more like anywhere between seven to 16% market share. So we're taking some of the blame, but it's also a lot less. Yeah, margin that we can get essentially on top of the balance sheet. So we pretty much trade pretty much very pretty these days. And then essentially, you know, let's assume that, you know, 2021 or so we had more like sort of maybe a 5x or so on the balance sheet, where now it's just essentially no leverage. So that's just reflected in the overall volumes.

And that's reflected, it's just a symptom of the space in general, where some of our competitors have exactly the same issues. Right. So you're saying basically that you're trading 20 20 of the volume as you were at the peak but you're a much larger percent of the market share yeah is that because of how many people have been completely washed out is that because of lack of banking access is that because the pairs have moved to more to stable coins and less to dollars all of those things all of those things all those things um we always go through these phases where there's a bit of like i mean we've seen that in sort of 2000 let's say 16 17 so you get the

wealth effect and btc in the mains and then you get people people um you know enjoying the wealth effect and sometimes actually the lack of access to the fiat rails is actually good for alts uh or the rest of the crypto ecosystem because people can't cash out for USD as such. But hopefully the rise in BTC these days will also mean upside for alts later this year. But that's more the optimist in me speaking now. So we'll see how we can address that. I would say, I would say, especially from the US perspective, yeah, the access to banking and so on has been quite affected. You know, I mean, Connor's probably got a

ton of a ton of ideas and a ton of stats on you know, why why the move in Bitcoin, but I would say I'm still I'm in favor flight to non-safety when you basically have USDC or some other stable coins that are getting more under threat. Luckily it's all gone well. But if you end up holding an asset that you think can just be stable but it can still go to zero and if you want to move, you know, be stable and it, but it can still go to zero. And, uh, you know, if it's, if you, if you want to move,

if you realize that your safe assets are not safe and then you're just better off just moving to an asset where you actually have upside as much as downside. Um, so it's, you know, that, that, that, that would be a logic similar to many cycles that we've seen. I mean, I've told the story here, but just anecdotally, even when we saw the banking collapse start to happen in Silvergate and there were rumors around Silicon Valley, I quickly looked, realizing USDC probably had some exposure. And I even myself moved USDC into Bitcoin. Right. And actually, my opinion at the time was Bitcoin is probably going to dump, but at least it'll exist.

You know what? I was worried about USDC for about 24 hours. Luckily, it went from $19,000 to $28,000 right after I bought it. But, like, I'm just a casual investor myself. I'm not running a fund, and that's what I did, right? I moved into Bitcoin for me. But that's sort of the argument that a crypto native would do that. I don't think my dad would have done that, right? Yeah.

Maybe I've done the dad move in 2008. So I had a trading bonus, and i just moved it from my bank that i thought would go down to the house nice it wasn't very liquid it didn't end up making money whatever seven years later it wasn't it wasn't very liquid but at least it was a better perspective than just leaving money at the bank go ahead any any either joshua connor but i mean we still did see a massive move a better perspective than just leaving money at the bank. Okay, that's another. Go ahead. Any, either Joshua or Connor, but I mean, we still did see a massive move, right? That can't just be because there's a, it's easier to move through the order book.

There has to still be something behind that, right? I mean, is it purely trading or is there a real narrative here? Well, yeah, I guess the narrative is that it's crypto people moving crypto into btc uh so we saw bitcoin like outperforming the whole market so in that terms of narratives i'm completely on board with uh and as yo said it's like everyone or as yourself you invest usdc and you swap it into bitcoin um and your question of safety gets kind of challenged um and for crypto people bitcoin is really the safest option.

So I'm fully on board with that narrative. The issue I have then is when people, I guess, equate it to a bunch of people pulling USD out of smaller banks into Bitcoin. That's the issue I have. Yeah, yeah. They're moving to treasuries. Yeah, I mean, I think there's a number of things that kind of happen at the same time. I certainly do think there are some people that bought into the narrative, which lasts about a week of Bitcoin being a hedge against banks.

You know, crypto likes to go through narratives and cycles. And usually those narratives last, you know, between one and four weeks and then we move on to the next thing. And so I think that certainly did take shape for a period of time. I mean, I think there's some other things as well. You know, you had CZ come out and saying that he's going to take his industry fund from BUSD and Stables into crypto. Fortune came out with a great story

and saying that that did not happen. And he actually just sent it to another finance wallet. But, you know, I think that the fact that he came out and said that they were going to be buying more Bitcoin did in some way, you know, did in some way at least kind of set off the market. And there's a few, I mean, there's a few other things as well. I don't think there's necessarily one great explanation for it. You know, you could just have a few big, big funds or traders or wells that decide they want to move into Bitcoin in a low liquidity environment,

move the market. I think the other thing worth noting, I mean, I don't know how notable this is. And honestly, given that you guys look at market data more than I do, I'd be curious to both of your opinions. But one of the things that we saw with Dogecoin the other day, which was kind of interesting, on the back of Elon changing the logo on Twitter, is that a huge amount of that volume was happening in Korean won. A huge amount of that volume was happening in Korean won. A huge amount of that activity was happening in Korea. We saw, I think it was about 800 million in activity on Upbit, which is one of the big Korean exchanges on the Doge KRW pair versus about 300 million in volume on Coinbase on the Doge USD pair, which is really interesting to see. And if you look at the last few weeks, a lot of the movement on the upsidege usd pair which is really interesting to see and if you look at the last few weeks a lot of the movement on the upside has actually came in asian hours and we're seeing a lot more

movement into alts as well and i don't know if that's a silly great explanation uh but but an interesting thing to at least note yeah we saw the same thing with korea sorry yo i just said we saw the same thing in korea and the data as well. And not to bring it back again to liquidity, but Doge liquidity is also like very low right now as well. We saw liquidity drop 70 percent in coinciding with that spike at the 1 percent level. So, again, it starts with a narrative, but then the bigger price swings are as a result of this illiquidity we're seeing on order books right now. Yeah, I think it's a function of, I mean, going back, taking a step back on the comparables with 2021 is that I think the big factor then was killing the China retail flow from November 21. And it was very much just removing a ton of, I mean, it was at the point of whatever.com

and people just, small villages just pitching crypto. So I can understand that someone would want to step in. and people in small villages just pitching crypto. So I can understand that someone would want to step in. But I think some of that flow has definitely disappeared and that removes a lot of some more granular flow in the order book. Korea is quite an interesting space where we don't operate because it's very difficult with effects controls and the banking system and so on. quite an interesting space where we don't operate because it's very difficult with you know effects

controls and the banking system and so on but they have a very interesting culture i mean i'm going to seoul uh on sunday again and they have this culture that makes it quite monolithic in terms of like there's new trends and then there's just not everyone just goes along with it so it's it's um it's quite it's quite powerful trends when they wonder starts so it's interesting to hear the the dodge i don't i don't have the exact article i was looking for but i remember last week it was big news that when that on that xrp move that all the volume was coming from south korea and that on three of the exchanges it was like upwards of 30 35 percent of the total volume for 24 hours was ripple trading i mean doesn't this just tell us that South Koreans love to gamble?

By the way, that is indisputable. If you look at the metrics and where the volume comes from, every exchange I've talked to is much more highly focused specifically on Korea and Asia than anywhere else because they trade with massive size, high leverage and on short term positions. Well, so one of the things that I heard from somebody who's very knowledgeable about the Korean market broadly, not just crypto, is that in Korea specifically, there's kind of this belief that it's much harder to become self-made to make a tremendous amount of money, right? You know, you kind of have this culture with the chaebols, with a few big companies like Samsung and others, where there's kind of this goal to just go work for these big organizations. And so the only way that I think, or that I was told, this is just me repeating what I was told,

is that a lot of people in Korea view their opportunity to make a leg up is to really gamble and to double down and to go into things and to move size. And that might explain some of that culture behind the scenes. But so the implication there, we're talking about the Doge move to kind of comparing to the past. You used to see Elon Musk when he didn't even own Twitter, mention Doge and see 30, 50, 70% moves. Now he literally changes the logo for days and it goes up 30% and then retraces.

So we actually have 70% of that. We actually have data on that. So on a relative basis, so we tracked all this in 2020, 2021. And then we stopped tracking it because he kind of stopped tweeting about Doge post SNL for a little bit. But on a relative basis, this was the fifth largest. We tracked about 20 Doge, Elon, Twitter related events. I think there are more than that, but we have about 20. This was the fifth largest in terms of price impact. But interestingly, the second largest ever in terms of social impact. So within 24 hours after the announcement, there's about a 600% increase in Twitter volume around Dogecoin. The highest

ever increase that we saw was actually his first ever Doge tweet. So this definitely had a massive impact in the market that we haven't seen in a few years as it relates to Elon. It makes sense because he changed the freaking logo of Twitter to Shiba Inu. Yeah, that was more than I expected, to be quite honest, just kind of looking at it from the outside. But it's nice to know that he still, I guess, has the ability to utterly manipulate our market. But so all of this, all of this speaks to the fact that there's a hell of a lot less interest and liquidity here. But, you know, I want to ask you, so your your market making is a lot of this because the incentive for market makers is much less. There's much less money to be made doing it in this environment. And that sort of is a self-fulfilling prophecy to create more of uh this sort of lack of you know wider spreads and

and i mean i read i think last week it said that a hundred thousand dollar order on coinbase could cause two and a half percent slippage right now that seems ridiculous that was that was yeah this is pretty excessive in which in maybe it is the least liquid coin maybe that we don't happen to have over. So just for the sign of $100,000, you can come to us for an OTC. You can go through an OTC desk usually. You do see like $100,000

like all this sort of coin base are cracking, to be honest. Going through the book, it would be a bit bit excessive um but um no it's it's it's it's it's very much in terms of liquidity provision it's true that the the less you know number of market makers we have you know on the on the planet essentially obviously it's it will get a bit less liquid. But, you know, we very much do our best to keep the spreads as tight as possible. We went through, for another side note, actually, we went through a, you know, we've been venture-funded as such. And during our Series A, so Jeremy and you from Lightspeed gave a very nice way of explaining our business.

So it's sometimes difficult for people to understand you know liquidity provision slash you know market making especially people have given like a pretty bad name to market makers so we think yeah everybody just take the market maker is the whale that's uh moving the market exactly exactly so we just we just we just stick to liquidity provision these days um which could be confused with some lp you know sort of polls in in uh in d in DeFi though, but I guess even more confusing, but let's say with that, with that, whenever you want to buy or sell some clients, then, you know, we're down on the other side and we risk our funds. So we taking for the risk of taking a position that basically that we don't

necessarily want, we taking, we're taking a small spread. And Jamie had this very nice way of symbolizing the business, which is we make sure you don't get ripped off essentially. Whenever you want to buy or sell a client which is we make sure you don't get ripped off, essentially. Whenever you want to buy or sell a coin, we just make sure you don't get ripped off. So when we do a good job, it means we do that. We do cover only 350 coins.

The 20,000 something. I don't know how many coins are there. Someone must have checked it. It may be 25,000 that have been issued. I don't know's there's way more than that i mean people issue like thousands of erc20 stupid coins a week so it just depends on what your definition of a coin is does he anything with the enu counter those all uh that's also true but so we we tried you know

the 350 coins which is which is much you know larger as far as I know than most of our competitors. Usually in business like ours, we can scale up to let's say 20-25% market share. But it's a bit difficult to go beyond that without taking a bit too much risk on the balance sheet. So we trade what's called market neutral. So we don't necessarily make money if things go up and down. And then we make tiny amounts of money. But yeah, to your point, Scott, this is very much volume sensitive. It's better if things move around. But we don't decide.

So our job is just to have solid infrastructure, just be quite reliable and scalable and essentially just be be quite um you know reliable and scalable and essentially and then you know just just either um you know maximize the time we're in the market and and minimize the spreads and some of that yeah that will take the people take positions against us yeah but knowing that it could have been this sort of lack of liquidity that moved us from 19 to 28 how does that explain the fact that we've been sitting with such low volatility around 28,000 for basically three weeks now? I mean, if you look at the weekly chart, we've kind of made this move

up and we've had these tiny little dojis on the two weeks, literally the weeks opened at 28 and closed to 28 the last two weeks. And we're basically at 28 right now. So shouldn't we be seeing much more volatility even here? Or do you think that we had the move and now people are sort of disinterested and waiting to see what happens next? I think it's interesting to see if, I mean, to kind of spawn earlier, it's true that there's less liquidity, so we can move faster up

and we can also move faster down. I think it's a bit of, you know, people looking at each other and, you know, waiting to see the first sell or waiting to see the next buy. I don't know. I don't know. Maybe Joshua

or Connor, you've got some data on short interest. We don't really have this in crypto or we don't really see much of this. But usually when you look at legs up, you're sort of trying to figure out... People piling in with heavy shorts and negative and negative funding right of course exactly and then when they get pushed out and then you end up with a short squeeze and then it goes up and then it makes a ton of sense why why it went up um it's a bit of you know how much pain can people

sustain on a certain position um but i don't know i just want to throw it through bolt to kind of just show you i don't have any data about that yeah so we track derivatives and what we've seen is basically now part of it is because spot volume has dropped so much but what we've seen is that the spot to derivatives ratio um on the derivative side is that is the highest it's been in over a year right now so derivatives are driving a large part of the market and potentially just in the last two or three weeks as we said we saw this kind of influx of spot spot volume three weeks ago but since then it's actually dropped significantly and as joshua was saying earlier a large part of that is actually down to finance removing zero fee trading for

bitcoin usd usd and usdt pairs so that the importance of that can't be overstated really because finance the most liquid exchange bt usd bt tether btc tether is the most liquid pair in crypto and we've seen we saw volumes on uh bitcoin tether pair and binance dropped 90 nearly overnight we've saw we've seen um the share of zero free trading on binance so those pairs that accounted for 160 percent of volume only like a month ago now only account for 20% of volumes on Binance. So this is to do with, again, liquidity flowing out of the space, but also on the flip side, then that actually means that more price action and more price discovery

is happening in derivatives markets right now. And that's what we're seeing really. So that could explain maybe the lack of activity in the last three weeks in spot markets is that there's this probably huge leverage building up in derivatives markets. And it's just a matter of time before we see maybe a bigger price move.

Which side is it piling up on? Well, the funding rates are pretty neutral right now. But what we usually see is funding rates building to one side and then liquidating and then bouncing back to neutral. So right now, it's pretty neutral. So you've kind of a neutral sentiment right now. Because as I said, yeah, there's reasons to be bullish, reasons to be bearish so um yeah i think if you did a twitter poll right now you know 30 000 next or 26 000 next you'd get a 50 50 you know i think it's just one of those times and that's being reflected in funding rates and in sentiment sentiment go ahead josh well if you look at cme data specifically so cme uh reports their commitment of traders last time that it was on the 28th of

March. So it is, you know, less than two weeks ago. You know, we saw that hedge funds were net short. They had about 7,200 short positions on Bitcoin futures versus about 4,100 long positions. And we're starting to see a little bit more of a divergence, at least among hedge funds on the CME going net short. So to kind of answer Yo's question. Good, we can go up. Interesting, talking about net short. I mean, the story that sort of kind of was lost last week, I think, was the United States government selling off the Silk Road coins that they had, basically 50,000 coins. I can't remember the exact date, March 14th, I think maybe is what it was they sold

basically 10 000 coins the market's been largely unaffected we always have these mass panics about huge amounts of supply coming onto the market and what's going to happen i mean how many times have we been told to sell all our bitcoin because mount mount cox creditors are going to get their bitcoin back right um but the united states government has 50 000 coins to sell and told sold 10 000 into this environment on spot reportedly on coinbase well you can thank you can thank michael seller for netting more than 10 000 bitcoin over the last so he bought so he basically bought the silk road bitcoin from the government that basically but you would think that that would be that would have been a extremely impactful thing and it really wasn't even in this

environment right i mean how do we account for the fact that we have extremely low liquidity, but even when you get a huge sort of seller in the market? There's still billions of daily trading volume, right? So keep that in mind. I mean, Binance still does well over, even today has done well over a billion of Bitcoin trading volume, right? So keep that in mind. I mean, 10,000 Bitcoin is what, you know, what's the number? $28 million or is my math right? $280 million. Bigger number. $280 million.

That's my number. That's the number. But still, that's like less than 20% of Binance's trading volume, right? That's just on a single exchange. So we don't need to worry about these massive liquidity selling events that everybody's concerned about at all times

with Mt Mount Gox and the United States government. What are the other ones? We've got some other huge narrative. Oh, yeah, because everyone thought that GBTC was going to become insolvent. We're going to have to sell off all of their Bitcoin. Well, and all the ETH staking rewards, you know, becoming liquid within the next couple of weeks. Let's talk about that. Let's talk about that. So I take the that's bullish, not bearish narrative. And I mean, I can give the very quick reason. I think that if you staked not knowing if you were ever going to be able to get your coins out,

you're not in a rush to get them out. You were the type of person who was willing to support the protocol and was staking for a reason long-term. And I think that there's a hell of a lot of people on the sidelines who want to stake, but want to see first that they will be able to get their coins out before putting that in. But there seems to be the flip side narrative, which is everybody's going to sell the minute that they can.

I don't really think that's going to happen, but you guys may have a different take on that. Conor, I see you're nodding your head. You want to jump in? Yeah, well, I can give another reason is that 60, like 65% of each stakers are underwater at the price they staked at. So you're going to get this staked return to you but it's going to be less than what you paid for it initially and there's another reason why there might be that much selling uh i think it's yeah i take the side it's bullish as well it should make ethereum as an asset class or as a token i

guess more liquid as a whole like what we're seeing right now with these like they do have these liquid staking derivative tokens obviously we see lido's version. They aren't that liquid. The reality is these liquid staking tokens aren't actually that liquid. We saw Celsius get into trouble holding large amounts of Steeth. So the reality is that this hopefully will lead to a lot more adoption of staked Ethereum because now there's actually a liquid alternative to staked Ethereum, whereas before, I know they're called liquid staking derivative tokens, but the reality is they're actually not that liquid.

So yeah, I take the bullish side of that one. Yes, I think there's a couple of things. And I had the pleasure of interviewing Andrew Gibb, who's the CFO and CEO of TwinStake this morning for my podcast. And so I get to repeat really intelligent things that he said and repackage them. So, you know, given that he's focused full time on staking, you know, some of the things that he told me, which are rather interesting, is the first thing is that basically the average ETH validator has 34 ETH.

You're supposed to have 32 ETH for staking, which means basically on the day of the upgrade, any amount over those 32, which is two on average times about 500,000 validators, do the math, it's about $2 billion. That's going to get automatically swept out and that's going to take about three days. So within three days,

we're going to see about $2 billion worth of ETH get swept out and pushed into wallets. That's an automated process. It's not manual, right? So you're going to have that potentially come to market. And the question is, well, what happens? Like, what does Coinbase do? Does Coinbase automatically restate assets for their users? Do other exchanges do that? Or do they deposit into their accounts? Right. So that's kind of the liquidity that you have coming immediately. But then in terms of unstaking, my understanding as of this morning is that that is going to take a really long time. It is going to take about 20 days per 10 percent of the ETH that is staked to actually unstake it. And there's no way to unstake faster by paying

gas fees. It actually has to do with how fast you line yourself up in the queue. And so you'd actually track the queue of people waiting to unstake. When you're in that queue, you're actually not earning staking rewards. So basically, people can already start unstaking now, getting ready to unstake, but it is going to take time. So I think the fact that it's not happening immediately, it's not even possible to happen immediately. It is going to take a long period of time means that the impact of it can't be as large as everyone thinks, because it's not like, okay, all of a sudden $20 billion is hitting the market tomorrow. It's just going to take longer than that, like physically to get the ETH on stake, even if you want it to.

Is the average 34 because those are the interest rewards that people have earned, or did people just over stake? I'm assuming it's the interest. No, no, no. The average is the interest rewards. Yeah. If I can add on to that, I think there's two factors. One small, but at least visible on my side is on the business side of sort of like the institutional sort of stakers and so on, the figment, kiln uh p2p and so on of the world are quite heavily pitching this uh and and the the the upgrade um and that that will mean you know more interest in and uh just holding eath um and a more general comment that's quite positive for eath in general is that i think last year and i mean we've we've seen Solana just fade a bit away,

probably with, because Alameda was a bit less involved. We've seen a lot of sort of tier one sort of chains as such fade a bit away, especially in the DeFi ecosystem. So as a just background, so DeFi team covers let's say nine chains, but we've been much more centering towardsering towards Ethereum plus you know some layer twos these days so typically just a few fees that carries average on being the obvious one polygon being the other obvious one but I would say there's been some re-centering of the DeFi ecosystem around Ethereum over the last year or so

and I think that just means people will just go and continue to hold them. There's a few, obviously, large contenders and so on are quite visible in the presence between the Aptos industry and so on. Though there's still a lot of work for them to do in building their own ecosystem, essentially. So I think Ethereum is stronger this year

than it was like a year or two ago, to be honest. So do we think that these are also narrative driven, the sort of consolidation into ETH and obviously this consolidation into Bitcoin, or is this our normal cycle, right? I mean, because if anyone's been in crypto a while, you know, all the focus goes to Bitcoin, starts to leak down to ETH.

And then once that- Well, is that not a narrative in and of itself mid caps that's a small yeah it's self-fulfilling down mid cap small caps back to bitcoin bitcoin moves i mean that's how you traded this market for at least five years that i can recall that i what i like to say is when no one's talking about crypto by bitcoin when everyone's talking about bitcoin by shit coins when your grandma starts talking about crypto sell it's kind of that is kind of the trend we've seen over the last goes on saturday night live and my aunt hits me up and says should i buy doge ahead of saturday night live that's really good sign that it's over and none of us long time but that actually happened and i've told that story here quite a few times my

my aunt who has nothing to do with crypto at all hit me up and said, I know you're in crypto. Should I buy this Dogecoin thing ahead of Elon Musk going on Saturday Night Live? I said, this is the deadest top of all tops we will ever see. And that was a 75 cent Dogecoin.

Now we're excited when it pumps to 10. So yeah, I would say that that was a pretty good top signal. That said, are you guys seeing any clear signals right now that we could be putting in just a local another local top with all this liquidity? I mean, it's there's a key area under 30,000 for for there to be a struggle, obviously. Or do you guys think that we can keep keep going up even in the face of all this bad news and sort of macro wobbling? Well, one really encouraging thing is that the Bitcoin correlation with stocks is actually decorrelating. So it looks like Bitcoin's kind of potentially finally started that decoupling process from stocks, which is really interesting.

So that's the kind of narrative I'm looking at right now, which is because if you look at, I guess, even like 60 day correlation, a longer term form of correlation, it's just tracked macro, it's tracked all these risk assets, basically, close to blow over the last two years. But what we've seen in the last couple of weeks is that's actually flipped for the first time in a long time. So, well, actually, it's flipped before, but it's actually been crypto-specific incidents

on the black swan side, on the bad side. Yeah, of course, we decorrelate when FTX goes out of business. That's not the kind of decoupling we're after. That will lead to existential threats. But, yeah, this not the kind of decoupling we're after. That will lead to existential threats. But yeah, this is the kind of decoupling we're after right now is Bitcoin and crypto being seen as this alternative asset allocation, essentially, in a wider portfolio. And it actually serves a purpose. People are always talking about crypto use cases. What better use case can you have as a percentage of your savings basically so like crypto right now makes sense and bitcoin makes sense as a as a safe haven asset on one side of

things just as a maybe a small allocation of a wider portfolio because it's this asset that the banks can't touch and what we've seen right now over the last few weeks is people are starting to realize that maybe the usd that they're holding isn't as safe as they as they once thought so um yeah the decoupling narrative is one I'm watching right now. And if we keep decoupling, that's kind of what we're after, really. Yeah, and I think the 40-day moving average of correlation hit sub 0.2, which is basically completely uncorrelated last month after topping at like 0.8, right? And that's been a steady process for nine or 10 months now.

Even if you watched last summer, I mean, Bitcoin was as boring as it gets and the stock market was all over the place. Like you said, not necessarily the decoupling you want because everybody wants Bitcoin to go up when stocks are struggling and things like that. But we really haven't been that correlated for quite a while. And you mentioned, I mean, if we do look at at 90 day correlation, though, over the last night, if we look at a 90 day correlation of daily returns, Bitcoin is more correlated to the S&P than gold. And over the last 60 days, it's almost the same thing. So I'm very skeptical of this risk-off narrative and the safe haven narrative. We tried that in 2021. It didn't work.

Crypto is still a risk on asset class. There's still a risk on narrative. I don't know. I mean, I'm i'm curious yo as to your thoughts but i'm a little skeptical i would um i would agree and i would just use my old macro trader hat basically there with us uh more comparing not the 2021 narrative but more the 2020 when we had the the massive you know early covered money printing and the state balance sheets when you just go like so we went through a few bank failures recently and then we get whatever two trillion dollars extra just um out of you know thinner essentially so you know that money is going to go somewhere and you're going to have the pension

manager and so it will be slow still because it is it is sort of trying to fly you know diversifying again uh we saw that in 2020 when it took probably six months or so to go from like paul tudor i think sort of may or june of 2020 in this like publishing this lesson and we had the again. We saw that in 2020 when it took probably six months or so to go from like full Tudor, I think sort of May or June of 2020 in this like publishing this lesson and we had the big sort of build up from like 10 to 16k or so with Brevin and the rest of us are selling about a billion, billion and a half in Bitcoin. So these things can take a bit more time but that money is going to have to go somewhere and then it looks like people feeling sort of interest rates and so on just flying up, it's not happening. It's not happening at least as fast. And then let's not forget that these markets are more like

expectation machines and such, it's there to sort of, you know, agree on the price of what an asset will be worth essentially more in the future. And if the conditions are shifting more towards stable-ish interest or at least not flying, not surprisingly going higher, then we might just get to see some of that money coming into Bitcoin or the rest of the ecosystem, to be honest.

And then we'll flag the next high when too many Uber drivers are trading on their phones. I have one more thing to add as well, which I think is worth noting on the why the market is moving, which I don't think we've hit on, which is the fact that crypto related venture funds raised a tremendous amount of capital. Tremendous, tremendous, tremendous amount of capital last year and in the year prior. And they're sitting on that capital in a lot of cases, because if you look at the equity side of crypto, if you look at all the businesses, there are really not very many great businesses that support the crypto ecosystem. And so what's happened is these VC firms that are sitting on dry powder have been forced to basically move into Bitcoin in the short term. And I think that could also be part of what's driving the market, which is that in light of waiting to actually deploy capital, they're actually, if they've already capital called,

right, they have to have capital called, you know, in some cases, they're actually sitting on Bitcoin and ETH now. And I think that might be why Bitcoin and ETH is generally moving more than the rest of the market. And that just to add on to that, yeah, that's kind of like what we were talking earlier. Where do you, if you do have this dry powder waiting to be deployed, where do you put it now? Do you put it in in stables not really the last two weeks we've seen but where do you put it is tethered a safe option we all probably are on similar pages with tether as opposed to how how like opaque it is i guess and we thought usdc was a safe option we saw that that narrative kind of come into question a few weeks ago so yeah i perfectly like agree with you there

that bitcoin and eat seem like like the next logical options. And that's definitely, that could have been a reason why the market's moved. Yeah, and there's also, I just wanted to add on to the hybrid model that we see nowadays between sort of the VC plus hedge fund kind of allocation. So this is typically the,

you know, how Polychain work or Pentair and so on. You know, they do a lot of seed, but they do a lot of liquid assets as well. This is typically how Polychain work or Pentel and some where they have, you know, they do a lot of seed but they do a lot of liquid assets as well. I think some of this has been driven also because the seed valuations, the private valuations, really took a long time to come off from 2021 over like 2022 and people started to see much more attractive valuations in the, you know, public markets as such. And then and then the started to just, you know, make a case to the LPs or to the you know, to the to then on investors saying just by well,

you know, why don't we diversify and keep it liquid and so on. And I mean, we're discussing about staking earlier, but it's you know, when when things are liquid, there's options to just go and land or to stake those coins as well. So I think that led to some diversification. Now, a good question would be about where does that go next? Is it just rebalancing towards the alt? We get sufficiently attractive valuations in the seed?

We start to see that more this year. And then go back into BTC at some point, we'll see. Yeah, that was literally the exact question I was going to say, Josh. At what point do we see, like, DVCs actually start heavily deploying or even having anything to heavily deploy into, right? I mean, there's obviously way less deal flow right now. As you said, the valuations are smaller, which means the checks you can get in

are probably smaller as well, right? They're going to have to. I mean, they have to deploy in a certain amount of time. Yeah, I mean, they said exactly what I was going to say. Yeah, I don't know. It's a very difficult question, right? I mean, but what I would say is that there's a lot less competition coming from traditional venture investors now.

So, you know, there are a large number of venture investors that were partners at large VC funds that got fired because they invested in FTX. And a lot of those VC funds, you know, that did invest in FTX have said, you know what, you know, and these are I'm talking very large $50 billion growth equity firms in the US, like real large traditional venture funds that were driving up a lot of the valuations as well as some of the sovereign wealth funds that led some of the series B, E rounds in crypto. And I'm not calling out names, but you could figure out who they are. A lot of those guys have started to pull back. There have been questions that have been asked from regulators in some case, if it's a sovereign wealth fund or from LPs or other partners, if it is a traditional growth equity funded. So I think there's going to be a lot less competition there. So I do think at some point it just becomes crypto companies doing crypto deals for the most part, at least for the time being. And we How much of this then has to do? Obviously, we've seen the uptick in regulatory enforcement action, Coinbase potentially, you know, being sued by the SEC after their Wells notice. But of course, the CFTC coming after Binance.

And then there was sort of these secondary reports after that, that a lot of certainly U.S.-based funds could potentially be in trouble for action, you know, trading on Binance, working with Binance. So if you're a liquid fund, even in the United States, aren't you now extremely fearful or at least limited in even where you can deploy because you're afraid of trading on a foreign exchange or what can happen in DeFi or the assets you're trading being retroactively deemed securities and you get in trouble for trading.

Sounds like you need to trade with Wintermute. Yeah, probably. So I guess he's the one to answer this, Ted. I mean, is there fear? There's a very conscious decision that we've made to give you a silencer, but still give you enough background that we've made up not operating in the US because we

couldn't really get the clarity that we wanted. And we also went a lot further than that. So the business is basically centered through Spot. We trade from London and all the derivatives we do for Singapore. So we couldn't get the clarity we wanted with the local

regulator here on the derivative side and they were quite conservative to be honest with touching retail as such so um we we protected in the way that we split the land between you know spot and derivatives and we we're also very b2b facing to be to be quite honest as well so that really helped us in terms of getting we we're not there's no crypto regulation in the uk but there's essentially a registration which means that we do everything we have to do in terms of uh kyc to know your customer and the anti-money laundering and the contentious financing it's quite stringent to be honest it goes up to 10 degrees but uh so you know just because you know if you were to just open a new effective account with your with your local broker probably need to just show where you got your funds and maybe like one extra degree away you got inheritance

from your grandma because she made a lot of money on dodge coin and then and then essentially beyond that they don't really ask you more questions you know but like we have to go 10 degrees away which is fair because you know we can't we wouldn't i mean the temptation would be good to go all the way down to the origin. But it's not an easy space to navigate. We have had some competitors who have more US operations just either completely folding that

or just moving more to the usual sort of offshore entities that came in and so on that you normally use. Yeah, there's just been some language that those offshore entities are not going to hold up, right? At least that was the implication with Binance.

Just because if you're in the United States, you're all in the US and you have a came in entity that's trading using a VPN on Binance. Uh-oh, right? Yeah, that's what I was reading yesterday as well. Let's not name them. But yeah, I mean, it's quite tricky. I think it's all, I think everyone would love to just get a bit more clarity

on the regulatory side. I mean, I think if you look at which venues US firms are going to look to right now, it's Fidelity. I mean, I think that's the biggest one. I think there's going to be a really big move. And obviously, Fidelity only offers Bitcoin and ETH. They're not offering a large range of different assets. But as it relates to large traditional U.S. institutions that are looking at moving into digital assets, they're getting a million questions of their compliance folks. There's getting a million questions from senior executives

and certainly the risk management team. And so I think if you think where that capital is going to be deployed on the US side, I think Fidelity is going to is, you know, they've kind of been the sleeper in the market for quite some time. But they've built some really good infrastructure, I think you start to see a lot of a lot of flow move there. I think Cowen, it becomes a really interesting counterparty for a lot of different folks. Cowen was just acquired by TD Bank. They're offering a suite of prime services for crypto. I think the question becomes, does TD Bank allow them to continue operating those prime services?

I don't think we've gotten any clarity, at least publicly, one way or another. But I think it's firms like that where you start to see the volume shift too. It's a lot of kind of safer places, obviously Coinbase. But I mean, we're hearing, you know, we service about 150 institutional clients directly. And among our client base, there's definitely a trepidation until there are more venues available in the market for US-based customers, especially New York-based customers to deploy capital. NASDAQ, right? I mean, we're seeing news. Or is that just custody? So first they said custody, and then they said, I think Bitcoin, Ethereum trading

initially will be offered. But I guess that leads to the next obvious question, which is, is all this enforcement happening to make way for the very obvious players, the Fidelities and the NASDAQs? I mean, I don't, I don't think so, because if that was the case, we wouldn't have stuff like SEC SAB 121, which is the SEC Staff Accounting Bulletin, which basically requires that a custodian holds equal U.S. dollars in their balance sheet to crypto that they're costing.

This is a public bank. And so that's created huge problems. Like Boney Mellon, as an example, has wanted to go full force into crypto, but they're basically being required to hold the same amount of US dollars in their balance sheet as crypto, which means you have an opportunity cost of US treasuries, which is about 5%. And what are you going to charge in custody? Like maybe 30 basis points if you're crushing your customers on fees. So it's not like they're being super welcoming to the Golemans and the BNY Mellons and others

that are trying to move in, especially on the side that makes a lot of sense i mean yeah you're not going to hold a whole bunch of cash to back your bitcoin if you can make five percent sitting in risk-free treasuries yeah we've seen that we've seen that in europe um yeah and it's and it's not like i mean for trading firms and so on they can have you, you know, offshore entities, but a bank that's regulated in the U.S. But if they go to Paraguay or wherever they want on the planet, they will still be regulated by the U.S. regulator anyway. So they don't have that option to just go and move offshore. That works for American citizens, too, by the way. My favorite comment over the whole entire bull run was, dude, stop complaining about tax and just move to Portugal.

As if like I just like buy a house in Portugal. All of a sudden, I don't owe taxes in the United States for the next decade. Right. People don't realize even if you give up your citizenship, if you have a certain amount of wealth, you'll owe taxes for the next decade. So to your point, it's not possible to run away from the United States government by simply replacing where you go to the bathroom or put your suitcase or sleep, right? Exactly. Yeah, it's absurd. So then I guess, you know, with only a few minutes left, what do you guys, I hate to make grand predictions,

but do you think that we can continue in this environment to see Bitcoin and the crypto market rise? Or do you think that we just kind of got, what did Capo say? The biggest bull trap ever? I just would love your opinion on what, gun to your head, which direction do you think we'll be going

the rest of this year? I think. Can I sit in the fence and predict volatility? That's fine. Like, yeah. So basically, as i said that i started off this podcast it's going to be hard to trust any rally until liquidity improves so for me i'm just looking out for an improvement in liquidity um and really that can only really

happen once there's a bit more regulatory clarity if someone steps up and offers these like usd payment rails like we haven't really talked about that that much but these usd payment rails the crypto firms that provide liquidity have been cut off from these firms. Yeah, that's the reason. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So I'd be interested to hear like Yo's take on that. But like they used to be able to transfer 24-7, settle stable coins for fiat.

Now that's not an option. So that's bound to make operations less efficient. And particularly in the US, then we're seeing that effect things like USD spreads on Bitcoin pairs like USD slippage we're seeing US exchanges now of less liquidity than non-US exchanges so is there going to be a wave of like investors now say the next bull run happens is that going to happen on overseas exchanges probably the likes of Binance and things like that with Tether pairs and so yeah I said, we need probably more regulatory clarity and then a friendlier banking environment,

few banks to step up and put their hands up to accept crypto deposits. That's probably a topic for another day. I do believe that will happen. And anecdotally, I've heard stories that that is happening. But they don't want to come out basically and publicly say that they're taking on crypto deposits because, look that you'll have to explain that decision to shareholders etc um nowadays so um the smaller banks in particular probably have an incentive to take on crypto deposits especially with the with the consolidation we're seeing in the banking sector at the minute

everything's flowing into jp morgan everything's flowing into city um and these smaller banks are going to get left behind so i have a bit of faith that potentially once this passes and it's looking like maybe it already has passed in terms of the banking crisis that um we might see a friendlier banking environment for crypto with a few more firms raising their hands we could be like yeah before it was concentrated in silver gate and signature now maybe we've got multiple there have been reports i mean i know immediately that coinbase went to cross river or something but then a lot of these small banks are sort of salivating at the opportunity to find anything to sort of improve their business at the moment but then obviously you kind of talked about it's

not necessarily where you get banked it's the fact that signet and sen are gone and sort of a lack of clarity as to that that settled the 24-7 settlement side of it. Yeah, exactly. Go ahead. Yeah, sorry, go on. Yeah, there's European competitors. I'm trying to make a name there. I'm optimist.

I mean, I'm probably always the optimist in the room being one of the entrepreneurs here. It's very much, I'll be optimistic that someone will find that just embrace the business opportunity and smaller banks will actually go and service crypto customers and such doing the work that they have to do

and some bad actors are flushed out in the process, that's also fine it's true that it always creates a bit of, at least in many winter in a way especially on the liquidity side of this though i mean to give you to give you guys an idea um i mean i mentioned it earlier in in the podcast but we essentially trade five six times our balance

sheet every day so if something you know is closed it's not 24 7 but i don't know it's open 12 15 hours or so it does have an impact on the business. And if we start to get affected, everyone is affected essentially because we do expect to have the best access and the larger customers and such. So everyone does get affected there. On the more optimistic side, I think these trillion dollars of fresh liquidity and so on are going to go somewhere.

So I'm not saying everyone should buy crypto as such but i've been fairly pretty long myself as the nature of the business anyway we do have a delta on your space so um i'll be more i'll be more optimistic long term i don't know if it's a year i don't know if it takes three years i don't really care about how long it takes but i think we we we're building a new financial system and I think it deserves to be supported as such. Yeah, we want to be supported by the old financial system. I guess that's the problem. I hate giving predictions, but the thing I'm looking out for is all the SEC lawsuits, specifically Ripple. And that one is, you know, look, part of the volatility and part of the giant rise in open interest on XRP is obviously the market.

There's some belief, at least the market is pricing it, that Ripple is going to win their lawsuit. If they do, I don't think it's a buy the rumor, sell the news event. Actually, I do think that there is going to be impact in the market. I think it is a tremendously impactful event. If Ripple settles with the SEC after this lawsuit or if they defeat the SEC or there's some outcome in that kind of range. I'm not a lawyer or an expert, but I think that's really important. I think kind of how we see, if you watch during that grayscale, during the initial grayscale hearing, you kind of saw Bitcoin's price moving as it was very clear that grayscale, you know, was doing well within that hearing.

And so those are the types of things that I think are incredibly impactful. I think regulation is really important this year. If we can get regulatory clarity and also like, can we just go like a week with something not blowing up? Like that's the single most important thing like every week there's more stupidity that happens in crypto whether it's like the cftc coming after cz whether it's oil or blowing up and now they actually didn't blow up because they got their money back or this or that and all these different things right and so we just need like we need like a month like i i know i'm i'll take a week i'll settle out a week but i would really ask if we can go a month without doing anything stupid.

And if we can win a couple of these court cases, I think that's really what we need. That's going to lay the foundation for the market to absolutely rip. But we need those things to happen. The legal system has generally been pretty dismissive of the SEC's cases. I mean, the Voyager bankruptcy judge, of course, that's now locked up again. But the Voyager bankruptcy judge completely laughed off the SEC. And as you said, the early days of the Grayscale case, I mean, that judge was dunking left and right on Gensler and his friends. It's important to remember that just because a regulator says it doesn't mean that it's the law, right?

Yeah. And I will add, though, I will add, and this is from somebody I know that is an attorney or is a partner in a law firm. If Grayscale beats the SEC in this lawsuit, the SEC can just reject Grayscale on some other grounds. Yeah, of course. They can just continue to reject it. We're not getting an ETF with Gensler. There's absolutely zero chance. Scaramucci the other day was on and he was like, nothing happens in crypto that's good until Gensler's gone. Flat out.

He was like full stop. Did anybody see the Gensler sweaty armpits next to Elizabeth Warren picture the other day? That was, that was, no, but sounds hot. There was actually an awesome article on Scaramucci this morning in Bloomberg.

I think he said he was a cockroach. Then he was going to survive every nuclear bomb. It was pretty awesome quote, but that guys were right up against time 1030 here. And yo, I know you particularly have to have to get out of here. Josh, thanks for joining for your 793rd time. Connor, yo, welcome.

First time. You guys were awesome. Welcome back anytime. A really awesome insight there. And I think it reminds everyone to remain somewhat skeptical of the moves that are happening right now until we have a whole lot more clarity on what's happening in the banking system and we have a whole lot more liquidity supporting the moves. That's the gist of just what I got out of it. I will, of course, be back tomorrow, 9.30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, ranting for my one time a week about the news and

all the stupidity in the market that Josh just alluded to. So I hope everybody tunes in for that. Otherwise, gentlemen, everyone, thank you so much. See you next time. Peace. Thank you.