The Wolf Of All Streets - Who Should Invest In Crypto ETFs? Will Solana ETFs Be Approved? Insights From Bloomberg Analysts!

Episode Date: August 21, 2024

Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart join me today to discuss crypto ETFs! Will Solana ET be launched? Who is investing in crypto ETFs?  Eric Balchunas: https://x.com/EricBalchunas James Seyffart: https://x.com/jseyff Chris Inks will join us in the second part to share some interesting trades in crypto and beyond.  Chris Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►►EARN WEEKLY REWARDS JUST BY INTERACTING WITH ME HERE 👉https://roundtable.rtb.io/shortUrl/wYXYlUf ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities!  👉https://thearchpublic.com/  ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code '10OFF' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker   Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #ETFs The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

The recent Bitcoin bull market was driven almost entirely by ETFs. We followed the narratives closely with both Eric Beltranis and James Seifert, who are here today, who kept us in the loop on everything happening with the CoinTucky Derby, of course, the Ethereum spot ETFs, and now even the Solana ETFs, which are looking like a more distant reality to state it plainly. Today, we're going to talk about that, of course, but also everything that's happening with the ETFs, which arguably are still driving the narrative for institutionalization of crypto. Of course, Texas West Capital on the back end. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. We've got both Eric and James here today,

the Bloomberg all-stars to talk all things Bitcoin and of course, all things ETF, going to bring them on right now. Good morning, gentlemen. Hope that you are both doing well. Finally gave you something else to talk about. Solana ETFs, right? We've been in the summer doldrums

and now it's Solana ETFs, right? We've been in the summer doldrums, and now it's Solana ETFs. But it seems like those are probably not happening right now. Is that fair to say? Yeah, I mean, I'll take that one. Yeah, I mean, we always thought they were like a relative long shot absent a Trump victory. the 2024 was off the table. People were like, oh, we could get it before the, the arrows. Like that's never going to happen. Uh, the deadline for them, if they were fully submitted was going to be sometime at the end of March. And as you have here, like it just, it wasn't going to happen. So, um, there's still, they haven't like, if you look at VanEck and 21 shares, the two firms that technically filed, they haven't fully given up yet, but CBOE has essentially withdrawn their application.

So is this a differentiation between the S1 and the 19B4 again? So the S1s are still active, but the 19B4s have been withdrawn. Is that the correct way to view it? Yeah, and let me jump in here. This sort of is what happened with the Bitcoin ETFs when they first got denied. Some of the S1s stayed alive. The 19B4s were rejected, obviously, in those famous letters. So I think just look at it like this.

I mean, if I'm a Solana person, somebody really got upset because I said there was a snowball's chance in hell of these being approved. But that's more of a statement on a Gensler-led SEC than it is on Solana. Ether people got bent out of shape. Similarly, I think there's some middle child syndrome with the other coins. And people shouldn't get so sensitive. The other thing is Solana, as James said, we always thought was a call option on a Trump victory. Even Matt Siegel, I believe, acknowledged that. He might have even said this is true.

So the issuer said it. I would look at this as like the Winklevoss filing in 2013. These are the sort of like first shots you get. And over time, you know, it's probably going to happen someday. It's just, you know,

a lot of variables are at play here. It would happen. It has a better chance of having sooner if Trump wins. And, you know, someone like Hester purse is the new chairman. It has maybe an okay shot. If they create futures,

if like Harris wins, reappoints a new kind of Gensler, but still Democrat, and then there's futures created, and then maybe, I don't know, more of a lightning on the Democratic side towards crypto. There's a lot of variables at play here, but ultimately I feel as though when these issuers start to file these things, sometimes they're just really early on something. And this just feels very early, but it's not like it's hopeless completely.

It's just the further you go out, the more hope there is. I'll put it that way. But in the short term, it is a bit hopeless. So I don't know. This is a non-event, right? We talked about this when it happened. Matt Siegel kind of broke it on this show just because I happened to joke about it. And they were literally announcing it the next day.

But he said, listen, it's approved. We kind of want to be first. We want to make the case. We want to be the ones out there pushing this because the environment is such that we feel like we can at least file this thing but i think eric exactly what you said they're starting a process with zero expectation that was going to be now they want to be the ones who are breaking it in advance of a potential regime change yeah i mean yeah call option there's no better metaphor than that it's sort of just like just

in case why not um i i just think what it does is it kind of gets the solano crowd excited um so there is maybe a little bit of a uh what would you call that false hope that you might give that audience um but look uh you know five years ago i remember them telling people who put in ether futures etfs to get out of here yeah and i remember and it was like well if they're going to say no to eat futures they're definitely gonna say no e spot and five years later we finally got it so they're gonna keep knocking at the door and then after solana they'll try another one and they're just gonna keep knocking and some and i do you know, ultimately the way Europe looks, you know, 21 shares has like all kinds of ETFs over there. It'll probably look something like

that in five or 10 years. But it will take a lot of knocking and a lot of persistence and time patience. Yeah. I mean, an act like the one thing I would just say say is a literal act of Congress that clears up market structure bill, puts a delineation between who has oversight here, the CFTC or the SEC, what's a commodity, what's a security. If we get real answers on the answers to those questions, we can start seeing more of these things get launched. Or if you see some sort of binding court decision about some of this, those are all things that could help speed this along, but you, you kind of need some other movement.

You need more things like Eric said, even a futures launching, like you said in order for any of this to happen. So there's, there's ways that it can happen and there are ways that it can happen within the next year or two. But they're also not guaranteed to happen. So we just kind of need to wait and see what's going to happen over the next

few months with namely the election. As Eric said, I think the most important point then is let's stop talking about it until we see what happens in the election. Cause it ain't happening right now. Yeah. Snowballs chance in hell is the best way I could put it this year. How big is the snowball and how long does it have to survive?

So you're saying there's a chance i don't want to say zero one in a million talk but damn it's close to zero for 2024 i'd say the odds are zero yeah so listen you guys zero point one zero zero is a pretty uh pretty bold uh bold number it makes it clear to be fair but we thought we thought he was pretty low uh last may too so there's always that snowball chance in hell so yeah no that's why i say that because did you know do you see that uh two days ago that sort of i don't know if it was totally fake news but the scoop that genzer could be treasury secretary and everybody like started to lose their minds and then people like oh it's fake and it's just some rumor so made up i will say as a strategic political move there is no

greater like visual you could give the crypto crowd than gary gensler's treasury secretary to move them to vote one way so i'm not saying it's moral or ethical it's just strategically smart whoever floated that rumor and the reason i bring that up is because let's just say we're, we're in like close to November and Harris is down a couple points. And for somebody inside that camp says, actually we need to be softer on crypto. That kind of a political sort of God level decision is the only reason I wouldn't go to zero.

But it's real close. That's a real outlier. Yeah. Yeah. A lot of people were very surprised that crypto wasn't in. I won't say surprised, maybe disappointed that crypto wasn't in the Democratic platform. But I think to your point, it would be wiser for them to save it if they have something to do. And I just don't think they're thinking about it. I think that's our echo chamber narrative. We think it's important. Trump's made his move.

I think they feel like they probably lost that audience to some degree. And they actually want to talk about the economy and abortion and immigration and maybe crypto is not that important beyond us. Correct. If I'm just saying, if it were to rise up in importance, you know, late in the campaign, they're looking for some kind of a Hail Mary, some, um, yeah, like I said, um, anything's possible. I still walk around on this earth, convinced that the ether was political, even though my good friend, Nate Dracy thinks it was all in Gary's head the whole time. Um, so I, again, and in the Bitcoin ETF race, we always held a little bit of a chance that Biden would be like,

what in the hell are we, we're approving this? No, we're not. And it would be shut down in the 11th hour. One source told me that. They said, watch Biden call Gensler and say, don't do this. So you always have to leave a little window open for high level, God level kind of like decision-making in my opinion. But like I said, I wouldn't get your hopes up at all. I would just get it out of your mind

completely until next year. I think the good news is that if they did get approved, all of us who are worth over a100 million, we would have to worry about paying unrealized capital gains on those Solana ETFs. And now we won't have to have that. That's true. That's the silver lining there. Which is really, really nice. So maybe James, maybe, you know, listen, I think we can put Solana to bed for now. We'll see what happens riding that snowball through hell. But maybe we can get an update on the Bitcoin spot ETFs and where we stand right now with the Ethereum spot ETFs. We know that we've had a positive flow streak,

but these are really small numbers for Bitcoin right now. By the way, this is exactly what I would have expected for August, both with legacy markets and with Bitcoin in general. So this doesn't surprise me. Yeah, so I mean... Go ahead, James. Go ahead, Eric. No, no, you go.

So Bitcoin ETFs, they're doing well. Did they have like 17.5 to 18 billion in inflows since they launched? One thing I would note, they've been floating around that $17 billion number for a while. They were at 17 billion billion a couple months ago, and then they went down, and now they're back up on their net flow basis. Whoa, whoa, whoa. No, no.

I think they were floating around $15 for a while. No, I would say they went to $17 and then floated around $15, and then they got back up. Yeah. They've gone up and down. $2.5 billion, I believe, is a high watermark, which is what it is today. It has to be because the one day, one week, and one month are all positive.

So that means that what you're doing has to be a high watermark. Yes. But what I was going to say is the money that came in, that poured in, they have way more Bitcoin than they did last time they were up near this. Because a lot of the ETFfs bought a ton when when bitcoin would dip right slow yeah yeah so they have like 920 000 bitcoin like they're they're nearing in on um 1 million 1 million bitcoin here so um like some of it has been good buying yeah it's eight months no wait what are we in june that's yeah eight months i mean honestly by within a year the us etfs will have more bitcoin than satoshi and by this time next year blackrock alone will have

more than satoshi probably they're on pace too exactly which is exactly in satoshi's vision was that blackrock would hold the majority of uh that's what he wants i know look you have to i really have empathy towards that tension of like oh let's create this decentralized thing and then all of a sudden blackrock comes in and there's a tension between hey it makes the number go up but is this really the consistent with the mission um look i just think etfs i think people have to understand that, like, yes, BlackRock's like the biggest asset manager, but ETFs to me are not TradFi. They are, hold on a second. They are actual big time disruptors. And BlackRock happens to offer them.

They offer a bunch of stuff. But the ETF itself to me is a punkish kind of disruptor. So to have Bitcoin there is just a way to spread it to regular people. I would almost look at it as an exchange. You could go to Coinbase and buy the Bitcoin and they store it for you on Coinbase. Well, the ETF is just competing with the exchange as an intermediary to get your Bitcoin. And nobody's that upset about the exchanges. So I don't see any difference here. I wouldn't really get worried about it, but I understand BlackRock because of the reputation, how big they are. There is some sort of a little bit of a tension there. But also technically BlackRock, listen,

BlackRock is cussing with Coinbase. So the coins are on Coinbase and those tokens, those coins are the property of the people who bought the ETFs, not of BlackRock. So it's always an interesting narrative. I would say BlackRock owns, not really. Well, I just think it shows the power of the ETF vehicle and the power of

distribution of TradFi. I mean, to go that quickly to a million Bitcoin is, is astonishing. Anyway, I, I really just one more quick thing on the Bitcoin flows is the fact that it floated around $17.5% of the assets stuck, even though there was a weekend where they woke up to a 15% downturn over the weekend. That's one day. That sucks. I mean, for any ETF investor, 5% in a day is a lot.

15 is a lot, especially if you're not in a leverage fund. And then that was all of a 21% downturn in like a week and 99.5% of them hung in there. The reason that's important is you're going to have bad days, bad months. If you can hang tough and tread water in the bad times, then your base gets to stick when it goes up. It's when you go down, it's sometimes hard to go back up. It takes a while. So to just maintain status quo during that last sell-off is really good sign.

I'm even surprised. And you know, I was bullish towards the holding power of these boomers, but I'm just amazed at how good they are. Like, I mean, James, it's even a more compelling point. You said like, it may be the same AUM, but it's more Bitcoin. That really does matter. Yeah. The AUM peaked at like 63 billion-ish

back in June. And we have way more Bitcoin in the ETFs now because obviously the price has gone down since it was up into that 70 range. So yeah, they're buying on dips really is what's happening. They sell when it goes down, but for the most part on a net basis, they're buying on dips, really, is what's happening. They sell when it goes down, but for the most part, on a net basis, they're buying on dips. Yeah, Eric, you said that ETFs were punk rock. You know, I like that. You know, punk. Well, they're crushing right now. And I love-

Listen, nobody- Rumors like me and Wire and Sosa in 98, man. If you lived through 98, that was the wildest sports chase for the home run record. Sammy Sosa was juicing like mad. They both were. But how much is Bitcoin and Ethereum contributing to this trend that we're talking about here? Because it's been this ETF explosion, but I've got to imagine that the most popular ETFs are driving that ETF explosion. Oh, yeah. You mean this? Yeah. Sorry. Let me bring it back up. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you've got equity ETFs are having a good

year, but look at fixed income. They're already at their record or passing that record year, non-traditional. And crypto has been a nice little bump. Whatever we say crypto is $17.5 billion. That's not that much of the $515 billion total, but it helps. Every little bit matters. But what is interesting is the fact that back in the day when ETFs had a record year, equities had to do all the lifting. It was like Steph Curry having to score half the points for the team. Now you've got more help.

And even globally, we just looked, other countries are starting to chip in. So the breadth of flows beyond equities is a really promising sign for the industry, in my opinion. And I also think the crypto is just another reminder that you really can package anything because some of the stuff you don't see in the non-traditional is like buffer products where they actually use options to structure outcomes. That's a whole wing that's growing. So even though you know us for the crypto ETFs, that's just one innovation that we're tracking every day. And because the ETFs get so much flows, all of the innovation happens here. So if you have a great idea, or you're an asset manager who wants to make money with this idea, you're going to launch an ETF with it now. So the launches are going to have a record year this year too. And a lot of those launches are built by smart people. So this is

sort of like an upward spiral. More innovation, better launches, more price competition, more flows equals more launches, better price competition, more innovation. And beyond the number of the $17 billion, I think it just brought a lot of mainstream attention on ETFs in general, I would imagine. But James, A, your thoughts on that, and then B,ereum spot etf where we currently and where we maybe more importantly verse expectations which were very low yeah i mean we're we're etf maxis here uh we don't we're not coin maxis anywhere but we are etf maxis but um you can put anything in etf and it will do well and that's what that's kind of why we could see a new record this year um but

as far as ethereum et go, they have negative flows since launch. So I have a bet with Steve McClurg who used to run Valkyrie that Ethereum ETFs would do more than 15% of the flows over the first six months that Bitcoin ETFs did. And man, I am doing really bad on that bet right now. Yeah, outflows are slowing down from the Ethereum grayscale product, but flows aren't really picking up into the other spot Ethereum ETF products. So we kind of always talked about this fact that the Ethereum ETFs were going to be a much smaller deal than the Bitcoin ETFs. I thought 15 to 25% over 18 months was like a good guess. Like that's the

type of flow numbers we'd be talking about. Obviously we're way under that now because we still have negative 400 million in outflows since these things launched due to EP bleeding cash. That's not wildly unexpected considering we saw the same kind of from Bitcoin in a better market, right? I mean, like the, we know it's going to sell off like mad with 2.5%. Yeah. Well, but the Bitcoin ETFs always maintained a positive net flow number and they built on it and they held tight when there was a sell-off. The Bitcoin ETFs, you can just tell, have a special strength that I just don't know the Ether ones will. It's not a big deal. Look,

again, I always equate Ether to silver to gold. They'll have their own little market. The one promising thing I will say is that every one of the eight has taken in money. And Ether, the BlackRock one, is at a billion in flows. And that ETF has taken money every day. So I would relax. It's a long game're they're off to a decent start um but as one guy said hey eric you were actually right these are i won't say the word small potato was that guy eric or was it james i say that's like that's how i that's how i sell the firm like a robot nft or something anyway he gave me props i again we're nothing i don't have any personal feelings towards the coins really but it's ether it just came after a lot of people

bought bitcoin and bitcoin i just think for a 60 40 year is going to cover their crypto needs so you're only look you're looking at people who are specifically into ether, I think, and want it in ETF format. It's just a smaller audience. Yeah. I would, I would also chime in and say that I think ether is like a little bit, this is something Eric talked to. He, he, he had a hard time wrapping his head around, like, what's the pitch case here. So I think that's part of it. Uh, also like it's, we, it launched in the summer. Like it, that's just genuinely, generally not a good time to launch. That is part of the cycle and no hype because it was supposed to get rejected. It was like everything that could be done to make these wildly underwhelming was done. And I really do think these are going to be, I always thought these were going to be a slower

burn. The narrative around Bitcoin was way cleaner, way easier, way more well-known. People have been trying to launch it for a decade. So I think the burden is just going to be slower for people to invest in these things. Let me just give you one quick number here. So if you took the Bitcoin ETFs off the table and you looked at the launches this year, Ether would be number one by far at a billion dollars in fact it's ranked 136th overall that means it's in the top three percent of flows this year for all etfs that's after like that's just one of them again that's just black that's just one of them and that's after what a couple weeks only um again the g it's just the unlock of etha is the nine as we call the newborn nine and i even put that superman meme they were a bit superpowerish they were gbtc would see 600 million and they'd be like yeah watch this plus 800

million these i don't think have that extra superpower but over time etha the uh grayscale will run out it'll stop the unlock and then you're going to look at net positive and you'll be good long-term. But again, I think this all comes back to the fact that the Bitcoin ETS were just so, they were like an anomaly in physics, very special situation. ETH is a little more normal, but again,

this would be the best launch of the year if you took Bitcoin out of the equation. And then I, yeah. And the, the other ones that we're talking about, aside from Grayscale's ETH, they've taken in over 2 billion. They've probably taken a lot of money from Grayscale's ETH, which has like just shy of 2.5 billion in outflows, but there's

still $2 billion in products that just launched like a couple of weeks ago. So it's, as far as most people would be concerned, that's a pretty successful launch. It's just, you compare to what the Bitcoin ETFs did, which, again, is the best launch in history. And it's like this is an abject failure, which really isn't actually the case. The ETF is down 25% since it launched, dude. That is rough. So to have a billion despite that is pretty heroic, to be honest. Look, there'll be better times for these. Don't worry.

But this is, it just, they had a lot of things going against them. They're doing okay despite it. Yeah, I want to, well, you had one more tweet here. It's somewhat related, sort of talking about you can package anything in ETF.

Like a micro strategy, obviously, relevant in the crypto space. I mean, dude, you can like inverse Kramer. You can do like negative marijuana stock. It's hard to get a Solana spot ETF, but you can get 1.75X long MicroStrategy or minus 1.5X short, right? And these things are very popular.

Yeah, so MSTX came out as the most volatile etf ever introduced in the united states and it is trading a lot like i think i have to go back and look but i believe it's the most immediately popular leveraged etf ever to launch um it's trading it traded 67 million yesterday and the and the other thing is the volume keeps going up that's a good sign when you trade 22 million and then 47 and then 67 that is incredible is this hedge fund i mean this is hedge funds this is traders because nobody's like so when you look at these leverage etfs and you look at the holders the 13 f's show like three percent like it's no like serious investors it's like small degenerates. Gamblers. Yeah, absolutely. It's the meme coin guys of the

TradFi world. Yeah. Here we are now, entertain us. That's our theme for this because a lot of people have their 401k, but they got a little money to just go wild with. And so it could be a rational person who has just an itch to go wild sometimes, or it could be a younger person who's full the gen. Either way, ms TX is going to have days where it's like up 20% or down 20%. And that's going to excite people. I call it package adrenaline, make me feel something. And I will buy it with your ETF. So I call it the volatility barrier. I think we're going to see people try to get beyond that 168% volatility, which ms TX is set. And maybe like Tuttle has a 2X

MicroStrategy filed. And if he gets out, he'll be at like 190%, which will be a new record for volatility. Yeah. I mean, MicroStrategy has essentially acted as like a leverage play on Bitcoin for a while now. And now you're leveraging it up 1.75x. It's leverage, leverage. Yeah. It's like leverage on a leverage product. But the benefit here is like people who can't really trade margin or just looking for a quick, easy way to just do one trade. The one thing I would say, anyone listening, think about trading this thing, it resets daily. So like it's 1.75x today's return. So only the return from today's opening at nine

30 to four o'clock, it doesn't do guarantee that 1.75 X over a week or two weeks. Oftentimes it will like drastically underperform that because it's so volatile, the more volatile, the less likely it is going to actually do that. So just know that you're like, this is a power tool. Like you could chop your hand off if you, if you don't know what you're using here. So, uh, just, just be careful. And, and yeah, that's the only thing I would say. You're talking to crypto people who are bored with 5X leverage that we could only get in the United States.

We want to go a hundred X on a shit coin with no volume that literally a 1% drop, you get liquidated. And we do that. Well, at least with the grander, we, yeah, at least with purpose grander we yeah at least with purpose it holds up for a longer time period this is like literally it's only 1.75 x for one day and it resets the next day so yeah well eric when you were saying you know the compliment i thought of this meme but now this is this is me telling myself not to do leverage wasn't your fault it was the market was manipulated by the whales.

There's a 2x NVIDIA ETF that has $5 billion. And the fee on it is 1.1% or something. And that one smash hit is going to attract all kinds of people. It creates a gold rush. And you're going to see all kinds of shit thrown at the wall. And some of it's going to stick. And I'm okay with it. I've always been okay with the hot sauce wing.

Because it's always a small sliver of the total pie. You can tell people aren't like putting their whole nest egg in this. It's like 1%, 2% of the assets. Whatever, have fun. Just be safe. All right, gentlemen, we ran out of time. Always a pleasure having the two of you. I know you have actual jobs to go back to,

even though it feels like for a while there, you become full-time podcasters and pundits, but we really do appreciate the updates. And I'm just thinking, you know, September and October, it's going to get really hot and fun again. I think that's possible. What do I know? Yeah. If the crypto cycle- August is always slow. Yeah. And September's just as bad, guys. I hate to tell you but uh that's a story for another day guys follow eric and james both uh keep us always updated on everything that's happening

and that's all i got for you with them thank you guys thanks it's just the best meme wasn't your fault the market was manipulated. You're amazing. The self-affirmations in the mirror in the morning. I've got Christopher Inks now. We're going to look at some charts, talk about this exciting, volatile, wild market. I don't think I've ever seen it like this, man. I wake up in the morning and I'm like, man, these thousand percent moves. Oh, it's just invigorating, isn't it? I don't know how these guys can work and do all these other things when the market's moving so much. It's not you, Chris. It's the market.

It always is, right? But hey, man, there's always something to look at, right? And listen, I mean, it seems people are depressed. Bitcoin's still kind of 60,000-ish, not so bad to me. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, at the end of the day, we're just doing what we do. Again, as you've pointed out so many times, at this point in the cycle, this is usually what we're doing. We just happen to hit an all-time high prior to the happening rather than after it. But doing this, we finally got that 30 whatever percent pullback that we normally get. And worst case scenario, I mean, you know, even when we're looking at this, you know, if we've got a one and two or three and a four here, we hit our usual wave four.

This is the initial target we look at as the 38.2 retracement of that third wave. And so we got that and we got that with a large lower wick. We got that with an exceptional bunch of volume. You know, all the telltale signs usually that it's a shakeout, you know, rather than a continuation lower. But here's the thing. Even if we did continue lower, we'd just be looking here around this 42,843,000 area because the secondary target for a wave four is 50% retracement. So,acement so i mean you know everybody's out here the sky is falling and uh you know i i think the people who have been calling for a recession for the last couple years are really excited um especially with uh you know august 5th

which turned out to have no follow-through right everything just kind of wrapped right back up um and so you know they got really excited and so now bears are very vocal. Uh, you might've noticed they've seemed to be increasing their, uh, their tone lately, um, you know, without any real follow through reason to do it, you know? So, yeah, I mean, as far as we go here, we're just, we're just kind of doing, doing our thing here. Um, it would be fine to pull back into the wick here. Wouldn't be surprised to have that at all. But at the end of the day, if we're looking at this macro structure, we have two targets we've got to get above. We've got to get above this last lower high here, which is right around 70,000. And then we got to get above, it's almost 72,000 right here.

If we can do that, you, you know, that you should be looking, there's no reason you should be looking down at that point. If you want to be skeptical until then, you know, do your thing. Uh, but what usually happens is people get scared out by sideways and then this drop like this. Um, and then they're very skeptical and then they don't want to get in and then it breaks out above, you know, these, the structural points here. Um, and then they think about finally getting in, but then they're upset because, oh my God, you know, I should have gotten down, you know, 20,000, $30,000 or whatever it is. So, you know, I mean, it's just, you know, if somebody is going to be that way, that's fine, but just understand you'll probably go through those emotions.

Um, just deal with them. But, right now as far as uh you know the top being in there's really nothing here that's happened that says the top is in uh for the cycle that that pivot you have there i mean that's the weekly but it's basically the daily 50ma right yeah oh yeah look at that we had the death cross that uh people fear so much but the 50ma clearly i mean every kind of move up has been tapped right on that 50ma not a surprise that's where the bots trade and such but uh you know we're just kind of hanging out there on your chart if you look at the um the last time we went sideways for that seven months down there i think we had the same kind of death cross right at the end if i'm not mistaken oh back

back here they did it turned back and quickly turned up into a right here cross yeah right there that was down in the 20s same thing yeah the death the death cross is a result of this not predicting this yeah yeah exactly you got it sideways and yeah so you know it is what it is uh people are going to find you know here's the big thing guys whether it's in trading or in life you're going to find whatever you're looking for um that doesn't mean it necessarily exists in the way you think it exists. But when we look for something, we tend to find it. So I'm always real careful about that. But yeah, we do need to see some upward movement.

But for now, we're just chilling around 60. Yeah, I think it leaves people saying, when alt season? You're supposed to be doing alt season when Bitcoin sideways, right? Well, you know, I think, and everybody talks about alt season supposed to be doing alt season when when bitcoin sideways right well you know i i think and everybody talks about well you know alt season as you know very well it's it's like shooting monkeys in a barrel right uh and i think that's why everybody gets excited about it but there's been tons of of opportunity to make money in alts you know the month after month here all some alts have really taken off and done extremely well you just got to be you know you've got to do a little bit. You've got to do a little bit more research. You've got to do a little bit more work.

I think that bothers some people because it takes some time and some knowledge. We'll see what's going on here. Right now, this is the DXY. This is actually the futures market for the DXY. They're on the Ice Exchange. This is January of 2023. We've been, this is a Jew or I'm sorry, January of 2023. So we've been sideways over a year and a half. We're kind of printing this, um, this, uh, diamond pattern here and we're breaking down, we've broken down, uh, you know, with some volume here through the, uh,

the weekly pivot. So, you know, I'll buy all indications. Uh, it, it does appear that we should be continuing lower. Uh, I believe, you know, again, we're going to break 100 and we're going to keep going. A weaker dollar means higher priced assets. So because, you know, it takes more dollars to pay for them. Right. So as long as the dollar keeps falling like this, there's no reason to think that the top's in for stocks or for or for crypto right now. So, you know, but yeah, this is a nice move down. Been waiting for this to kind of happen. We've got it.

And I expect it to continue lower overall. This is the weekly chart though. So don't, you know, don't assume that it's going to happen overnight, but we should finally, it looks like be continuing that downtrend now. And then I've got a few charts here. Yeah, quite a few.

Go ahead. Yeah, I got a few charts here. I'm seeing a lot of these breakouts of these diagonals or near breakouts. And so I'm watching them. We did get this breakout. Sorry, I can't read it. Yeah, it's EDU, U-S-D-T. Yeah.

And so I don't know what it does. It educates. Dot EDU. It educates. It's education. It seems like that's what it would be, but I don't know. But anyway, we've got the breakout here, and we've got the breakout on some volume. So you can see we've got volume here.

If you're not into diagonals, it broke out with volume through the horizontal pivot here. So generally speaking, I would expect the low to likely be in here and to continue higher. Um, so this gives us an initial target up here around this swing high, uh, probably just prior to it around 0.74 and a half. But once we break out above this, this local swing high here at, uh, 0.77, we should have a target up here of about 1.1375 up here toward the top up here. There's all this supply up here, but we should have that target pretty easily once we do that. So again, that doesn't mean we have to run exactly from here and run up, you know, up and down all the way. But now that we've broken out above here, I would expect us to head up through here.

Now, my only thing that would change is on the daily here, if we were to get a close on the daily back below this descending resistance, back below this pivot here, I would be cautious and wait for it to then break out above the swing high here just in case. But right now, kind of what we're looking at not a whole lot else going on there but again matic here maddie's got another nice long-term resistance here please from march of 24 right from march of 24 i'm still you know still still riding this one from cycles past well let's let's see. We can even do this here.

We've got this support where we've got a throw under here. I'm going to zoom it in a bit. So we've got this large wick down. Of course, this large volume, again, suggesting that that's a low there. And we're going to reverse up off that. But I always watch when you have a throw under of support like this, whether it's horizontal or it's, it's diagonal here, especially on volume. And then you get a quick move back up. I always am interested in that because this is usually what we'll get on a wedge.

And so, um, you know, now that we've broken out through this resistance here, uh, you know, I'm looking for a target up here for about 0.615 um and my thought is once we're getting up there forget up there the odds are pretty high that we'll probably end up you know that this was the low and we'll continue rallying up higher um but for right now uh if we're looking at here um You know, this is three waves here. This is the weekly demand structure. We dip just below the EQ of it and pop back up. So, I mean, there's a lot of good stuff to like about it, but we really kind of got to get above this point right here. So we really want to still see some follow through, especially if we can get it impulsively, break out and close above this pivot here on the daily at about at about 50 cents so i'll feel

really good if we can do that and look up toward that target that lines up with a pretty like clear weekly resistance i just happen to be looking at the chart as well but right around 50 cents exactly right there yeah yeah strong strong strong line yeah yeah if we can take that out again you know especially impulsively and close above it we we should, I think, be good to rally up higher on that. What else we got here? We got ASTR, USDT. Again, another one of these where you got almost like a wedge going on here, another throw under, big volume at the bottom.

I think we'll probably rally up here toward this pivot. What's that, right around almost.07 or so. And this descending resistance, we might push up into that area. But I think we get a pullback back down here maybe toward.055 or.057, something like that before we get the breakout. But once we get that breakout, we're going to look for it to be impulsive. We want to see some volume on it, some candle coming through it. But if we can close above it, initial target there at 0.08. And then we should expect some continuation up here toward 0.011, basically 0.115, 0.1148.

So those would be my initial targets. I've looked for with this once we can get that breakout. But again, I do think we'll probably get rejected here and pull back before we break out. Do we don't have to, but I think that's what will happen. Uh, let me see here. We've got NKN USDT. Again, we're seeing a lot of these, right? We're seeing a lot of channels. We're seeing a lot of potential wedges forming here. Again, same idea. Throw under of that support. And when we look there, of course, big volume coming through.

We rallied up the S1 pullback, broke out. We just kind of peaked out above this resistance, and you can see that we did have quite a bit of volume coming in that. So, you know, we'll see if we maybe get a bit of a pullback here. But if we can get that impulsive breakout and close above this descending resistance, we'll look at that.079.5 as initial target. And once we're popping up through that, we'll look at 0.1186 up here as your next target on this one as well. But again, we need to get that impulsive breakout and close there

above that descending resistance. BAT, BAT USDT. It looks like we've got a descending broadening wedge here. And because of that, of course, we don't have the throw under, but we do again, have the low down here. Um, bullish SFP below this, uh, what is this July 5th swing low, which you'll see on a lot of the charts. So we've got the wick below it. Here we go. Rallying up. We may push a bit higher into here, but again, uh, the idea would probably be that we'll get a pullback first and then we'll get the breakout and that gives us an initial target of about uh 20 cents here and then a secondary target up here of about 26.9 27 cents up there as well uh let me see here and finally i like when they all look kind of the same across the board, because, you know, like maybe August sort of sort of resolves here and then they all sort of start breaking out. Yeah, that was an obvious bottom, right?

Yeah, that's the expectation because they do look so similar. So many of the alts. So, you know, if you're getting the breakout of a couple of them, you're probably going to get a, you know, a bottom for most of them at that point have been in here. Again, you know, here we go again. CKB USDT looks like a descending wedge going on here. I want to see a breakout above this swing high here at 0.009. If we can get that, looking for a target up here of around.0115. Secondary target up here a bit further,.01664. And so, you know, we've got this kind of wedge going on here, but I'm also kind of watching how this kind of plays out here.

I can't get it there. But, you know, something like this here, uh, it looks like we, you know, we may pull back a little bit further, maybe, but if we can get a breakout up through this S1 pivot, that'll kind of do this diagonal here. Um, and then we can, if we do, it'll probably break out above this swing high, which again, sets us up for those larger targets there. So, you know, again, all it's looking like maybe, maybe they might do something here, but, you know, you, you want to wait, you want to wait for your confirmations, right? I mean, especially when you've been in downtrend for so long, you know, don't just jump in here and go, oh yeah, it's going to go in and, you know, and hope you're right. You know, always tell people

don't, don't enter just because there's a chance. Look for those higher confidence entries where you've got, you know, multiple things happening, suggesting that, Hey, you're probably more right than wrong. That way you lose a lot less money. And when you are in, you're probably more likely to be correct. So yeah, it's about, it's about padding. It's about padding your, your ideas to hopefully, you know, kind of put the probabilities on your side. Right. Yeah. I mean, it's office 21st guys. We've been doing this for like five or six months. Don't, don't, don't shake yourself out now. That's how it ends by the way. It's when people give up after a long period of time. So don't do that. Don't be this while we're doing memes. I got this one

classic, right? And the other one was people were talking, here's the banana zone that we've been looking for. It looks dead. That's the banana for our banana zone right there. Was that all? Was that all the charts you got? I didn't see if there were any more. Yeah, no, that's what I got there. But, you know, again, I think you said it best there.

You know, what happens is people are going to get all bored and give up. And, you know, that's usually when it takes off. And then they get scared to get in because what if it's not working? And then they kick themselves when we're back up above 70, you know, and they FOMO in and maybe you get a shakeout, you know, at the top there, you know, breaks out, traps the breakout traders who finally got in and then they get squashed as it pulls back before it does the real breakout. You know, I mean, this is usually what we go through in markets. Yeah. Well, I have a feeling in a couple of weeks,

we're going to be having very different conversations on Wednesdays. I'm looking forward to it. Me too, because man, it's rough out here in these streets. It's a hard-knock life, right? For traders. It's not our fault though, man. It's not our fault. See, it's not us. It's a hard-knock life, right? For traders. It's not our fault, though, man. It's not our fault. See?

It's not us. It's not us. Anyways, guys, that's all I got for you. Follow Texas West Capital, TX West Capital, on the X Twitter machine, the YouTube machine, his group machine, all kinds of machines where you can find Chris. That's all we got for you today, man. I guess I will see you next week.

Everybody else. See you tomorrow. Bye. Yes. Let's go.