The Wolf Of All Streets - Why Dollar Cost Averaging Bitcoin Is ​​the Best Strategy | Mark Yusko

Episode Date: June 21, 2022

When your favorite retail store has a sale you run towards it. So why do investors run the other direction when the market has a sale? Mark Yusko, Co-Founder & Partner of Morgan Creek Digital, sees ma...rket drops as an incredible opportunity. We talk more about the opportunity in dips, the amazing talent migration into crypto, and how we will soon start monetizing our attention and focus. Mark also shares 3 important tips for staying calm. This episode is full of incredible soundbites that you don’t want to miss. JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER 📩 https://www.getrevue.co/profile/TheWolfDen THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS ►► Ready to scale your big idea? Business banking with Mercury makes it easy. FDIC-insured bank accounts, unlimited virtual cards, free wire transfers, and more—all in one simple-to-use Interface. Sign up for a free Mercury account online in just minutes and get better business banking. Go to http://thewolfofallstreets.info/mercury to sign-up today. ►► Vauld is a Smart Investing Crypto Platform which allows the user to invest without any stress! With Vauld, you can earn free passive income in crypto. Vauld lets you earn the highest interest rates in the crypto industry - 12.68% on stablecoins and 6.7% on BTC and ETH.. Sign up below and get a 40% kickback on trading fees, 5% commission on interest payouts and 5% commission on loan interest. Vauld’s ‘Buy the Dip’ function automatically purchases specific cryptocurrencies for you when the price dips below a pre-set level. It’s awesome! Sign up here: http://thewolfofallstreets.info/vauld EPISODE LINKS Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko Production & Marketing Team: https://penname.co/ FOLLOW SCOTT MELKER • Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/wolfofallstreets • Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io • Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe • Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3FASB2c

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This innovation cycle is so profound. Look around us, right? You're sitting here like say your mind being blown every half hour except with this one, present company excluded. And it's because the talent migration into this space, it's like nothing the world has ever seen, right? People from all walks of life, from technology, from finance, from politics, from societal-focused companies, all seeing that this movement can truly change the world. Let's go. Let's go. This podcast is sponsored by Mercury and Vauld. Please stay tuned for more information on both of these amazing companies later in the episode. I've had guests that have been on the show one, two, three, four, five times.
Starting point is 00:01:10 I think that Mark Yusko has been on the podcast and my live streams probably seven or eight times right now. And he never, ever disappoints. Nobody has better soundbites than this guy or better instincts as to what's likely to happen with the market. He's the guy who told me that the futures ETF was going to be the top. And it absolutely was. He also has incredible t-shirt taste and amazing Bitcoin socks. You don't want to miss it. We spoke not that long ago, and they were launching the futures ETF. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:01:35 And you told me that was the top. I know. It's so crazy. I mean, you said to me, listen, this is a sinister thing that they're approving a futures ETF. 100%. It's not a spot ETF. They're going to short the hell out of this.
Starting point is 00:01:47 Yes. It's going to send price down. Well, I think the prevailing narrative still was, yay, we got an ETF. Yeah. And look, it is sinister and it is intentional. And there is no question that the resistance to a spot ETF is going to continue for a while. And everybody's, oh, on July 7th, you know, GBTC is going to get approved. I'm like, I don't think so. Look, my prediction actually is the first one that does get approved is going to be BlackRock's
Starting point is 00:02:18 because they're part of the cabal. But look, approving a futures ETF, and you can go back to approval of the, or the creation of the futures the first time, December 18th, 2017. The dead top of the day. Was the dead top, right? And there's a reason for that, is when you can create something out of thin air, whether it's money, right, like my shirt.
Starting point is 00:02:44 That shirt, yeah. Or whether it's money, right, like my shirt, or whether it is a barrel of oil, a brick of gold, or a Bitcoin, that creates a problem with supply. In the old days, if I want to sell you a barrel of oil, I actually had to have a barrel of oil that I controlled. I couldn't just say, oh, well, I'm going to make a paper barrel of oil and sell it to you. And as long as we settle up before I have to deliver it, I'm all good. So if you look at oil prices, they're super volatile, particularly when they spike because people just keep issuing new paper barrels of oil. And then you're prone to a period of speculators coming in and pushing the price down through shorting. And I think that's exactly what's happening in Bitcoin right now.
Starting point is 00:03:32 And look, we talked about this, I think, on one of your Thursday podcasts, is we're in the then they fight you stage. And so what I said this morning on stage is, look, Gandhi, I guess Gandhi didn't say it, but everyone says it's Gandhi. But the Gandhi quote, first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. And 2009 to 15 was first they ignore you. Like a bunch of nerds, geeks, who cares? It's nothing. Science project. Then it's they laugh at you. So 16 to 21, ha, look at those nerds and geeks and their magic internet money. Ha ha ha.
Starting point is 00:04:12 Well, now 2022 to 2027 probably is then they fight you. And the fight, I mean, it's going to be a bitch. I mean, it's not going to be fun. And everyone's like, well, no, no. I mean, they're going to rally around it. No, they're not. The banks are being disrupted. And that's good, right? I mean, innovation and technological disruption is a positive for society. We're going to take $7 trillion of waste that exists in the traditional financial markets and liberate that, which is good. But the people that
Starting point is 00:04:46 collect that $7 trillion don't want that to happen. So, you know, look, BlockFi, we invested in BlockFi and they got fined $100 million. For what? Oh, well, you sold unregistered securities. But you said these weren't securities. So how can I sell an unregistered security? Well, you're paying interest on stable coins. Right, but those aren't securities. So, but you pay the fine. It's a cost of doing business. Now, the cool part of that is once they now have a regulated product,
Starting point is 00:05:20 because everybody's like, well, don't file a regulated product because then you give them control. I'm like, no, no, no. Regulation is good. More regulation is good. More boundaries, more rules is good. I always say it's like raising kids.
Starting point is 00:05:34 If you give your kids no rules, they will be terrors, right? They need boundaries. They want boundaries. They want to know, oh, my parents have my back if I come up to this point. So it's a long way of saying, I think we're in this, then they fight you stage. I think it's going to be hard, but you got to zoom out. Just like, you know, people say, oh, look at the correlations. You know, everything's, everything's highly correlated. For now. No, no, but I recorded and I, and look, I love Will. I really do, Will Clement. And I did a podcast with him yesterday.
Starting point is 00:06:11 He's like, you know, look, the weekly correlation. Don't ever even calculate a weekly correlation. That's a spurious number. It has to be thousands of observations to have any statistical meaning. And this idea that everything correlates to one in a crisis, right? Stocks and bonds, they're only 30% correlated, except they're both going down right now. Well, wait a second, that's not supposed to happen. Well, right. Because what happens when stocks are being liquidated, as they are, hard, and there's lots of leverage, and you get a margin call, you don't get to sell what you want to sell. You have to sell what you can sell. Liquidity. Gold, bonds, Bitcoin.
Starting point is 00:06:59 Especially at 1 a.m. Especially at 1 a.m., exactly. And it's just a really funny thing that people, for some reason, don't look at that and don't understand it. And look, there are those that do get it. And if you go back to March of 2020, Bitcoin fell 50% in like 12 hours or whatever it was, and I'm off a little bit, but hit 50 something, 5200, and people are like, oh, it's going to zero. I'm like, no,
Starting point is 00:07:26 no, this is a big buying opportunity. And you've heard me say this, right? Investing, only business I know, when things go on sale, people run out of the store. When you put anything on sale, put wedding dresses on sale, people will run over each other to get in the store to buy the stuff. But when stuff goes on sale in the markets, ooh, I'm out. And the further the price goes down, the faster they run away. No, that doesn't make any sense. And I'm a big believer that the first loss is the best loss. People say, well, that doesn't make sense.
Starting point is 00:08:01 You're saying buy things that go down. I'm like, no, no, no. First loss is the best loss if you bought something because you don't understand it. And if you bought it because the price is going up, then you better sell it soon. If you bought it because you think the price is below the value, then you should definitely buy more. And that's a very big difference between an investor and a trader slash speculator or worse, gambler. And that's, I think, the problem we have right now is we're still getting rid of the gamblers. You know, the lockdown, give people free money, lever up.
Starting point is 00:08:38 And you and I talked about this. I shouldn't, you know, throw my brother. I know I shouldn't throw my brother under the bus right but he calls me up and he says you know they stole my bitcoin like what are you talking about he says well i was a bit max like stop talking so you levered up an 80 vol asset and you didn't make the margin call and they seized the collateral no they stole my Bitcoin. I'm like, no, you lost your Bitcoin. Read the terms and conditions, man. And my point is, then someone said to me,
Starting point is 00:09:09 but you do realize that there are certain firms, and I'm not pointing a finger at any particular firm, but there are certain firms that entice people. It's their business model. To actually get them to lever up so they can seize the collateral. I'm like, oh shit, that could be real, right? And again, I'm not accusing anybody of anything,
Starting point is 00:09:27 but that definitely could be a business model. And so my advice there is some leverage is fine, but on assets that make sense. Like Warren Buffett. Everyone thinks he's this grandpa stock picker. No, he's not. He is not a stock picker. No, he's not. He is not a stock picker. He is a levered, tax-deferred, brilliant structure.
Starting point is 00:09:54 I mean, he is a genius, but he's not a genius for what people think. He bought Apple. Why did he buy Apple? Not because it was in its high-growth phase. He bought it because it paid a nice dividend and bought back shares. So he takes that low volatility cash flow and levers it up with negative cost of capital money because he has an insurance company. It's a genius strategy, but an 80 vol asset, you can't lever that very much. It's like your house, right? People lever four to one. No problem because you don't price your house every day. Imagine watching a chart.
Starting point is 00:10:25 I joke about that all the time. People look at Bitcoin. They'll say, I'm buying Bitcoin for 30 years. It's for my kids. It's whatever. What's the price on the one-hour chart? Exactly. Imagine if you charted your house.
Starting point is 00:10:34 Oh, my gosh. And this idea of we're all guilty of looking at the price. I mean, we're all guilty of it. And to your point, if you're buying an asset truly for a long duration, you know, to trust for the kids or to fund retirement or whatever it is, you actually shouldn't look at the price unless you're looking at it to say, okay, the price fell below my estimate of value, so I'll buy more. But a better way to do that is just pick a period i say this whole time
Starting point is 00:11:05 just dollar cost average over time and you know it's funny i did the uh the thing and i whatever 2017 or 18 and i was in cnbc and while i was on the show the price went from ten thousand to eight thousand like literally in the six minutes i was on the show. And Melissa Lee says, you know, what should I do? I'm like, buy it. And just the look of incredulity. She said, well, you just say that no matter what the price, even if it went to $5,000. I'm like, yep, I would. Buy it today.
Starting point is 00:11:37 Buy it tomorrow. Buy it next week. Buy it next week. Don't buy it all at once. Don't ever buy it all at once. By the way, if it went from $10,000 to $12,000, you would have also said buy it. Exactly. Exactly. So anyway. Right. So that's a completely different narrative. I love the analogy you said about children wanting boundaries. Yeah. I think the fear with regulators, though, is that the boundaries are like a cage and children don't
Starting point is 00:11:57 want to live in a cage. Right. And I don't think the industry does either. No. And that's important. But here's the thing. There's no question that there are regulators that are being influenced, paid to do exactly that. Right. No question that is the case. But the difference is in the old world of innovation, where it was pretty localized, you know, each jurisdiction had their set of rules and regulations because nation states mattered, borders mattered. That changes in crypto because now nation states are not quite as important.
Starting point is 00:12:38 Borders don't really exist. I mean, what is the border of the metaverse? And if you think about, take China. China says, I'm going to ban exchanges, 2017. Price of Bitcoin falls 40%, almost overnight, and everybody freaks out. And what happened? Those exchanges picked up and moved to Japan and South Korea.
Starting point is 00:12:59 And within weeks, the hash rate's right back the same. Same thing with Bitcoin mining, last year. We're going to ban miners. What did they do? They picked up, moved here to Texas, moved to Kazakhstan. I met a guy down in Miami who was one of the Kazakhs who built this giant mining facility with all the people that came out of China. And it turns out some of them stayed in China. If it's recent data, they're actually still doing mining in China.
Starting point is 00:13:23 And we freak out about this idea that regulators are going to. But the thing is, if you overregulate, if you try to put it in a cage, what's going to happen? It's like squeezing a balloon. The air is just going to go somewhere else. And part of it is American exceptionalism. I joke that Americans are like Notre Dame football fans. I'm a Notre Dame guy. They remember a past that never was. The perception of exceptionalism. I joke that Americans are like Notre Dame football fans. I'm a Notre Dame guy. They remember a past that never was. The perception of exceptionalism. Yeah, but they remember a past that never was. Like, if you ask a Notre Dame football fan, they think, oh, we win the championship every year. We haven't won since 1988.
Starting point is 00:14:02 And my father, who I love, right, says, well, in my time, we won all the time. Yeah, because in the 40s, the coach went to Europe and got all the guys from Army and Navy to come back as 28-year-olds, and he had a semi-pro team for four years. And they went undefeated for four years, won national championships. Fine, but you don't get to do that anymore. I always joke, except BYU. You know, they send them on the mission, then they come back bigger, stronger. So this idea that regulators here are going to set the rules is crazy. Because if you make the barriers or the boundaries too small, it will just push innovation outside. And what I do like is under Jay Clayton, the SEC was measured, prudent,
Starting point is 00:14:50 consistent. Those are not words that people today would use. Current head, not as much, but you do have people, like even the executive order was actually pretty good. Let's study this. Totally reasonable. Let's figure it out. And then you've got Senator Lummis and others that are really, really smart about this. But ultimately, we're going to choose as a country. We're going to choose whether we want to be in favor of innovation and wealth creation or we want to be against it. Now, our track record on it is not actually very good. Taxation is a good example. Why would you ever tax innovation and wealth creation? Why would you tax income? It makes absolutely no sense. I
Starting point is 00:15:38 mean, it just makes no sense. And it was supposed to be temporary for the War of 1812 or whatever it was, Spanish-American War. But it's not temporary. What we should tax is consumption. Because you should let people make as much money as they want and create as many jobs as they want. And then when they choose to consume, you want to buy an expensive watch? Pay a lot of tax. You want a yacht.
Starting point is 00:15:59 Pay a high tax. And you can choose. And then it's totally progressive. But, I don't know, that's a problem for another day. Ready to scale your big idea? Business banking with Mercury makes it easy. In addition to FDIC insured bank accounts, unlimited virtual cards, foreign currency exchange and free wire transfers, Mercury offers custom team management features that complement your company's growth. What's more, Mercury offers additional financing options like venture debt, depositing founder friendly loans directly into your Mercury account. Thank you. for better business banking in minutes. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank.
Starting point is 00:16:45 Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group and Evolve Bank and Trust, members FDIC. Guys, I have a serious question for you. How much interest are you earning in your bank account? Is it 0.00001% or something similar? We all know by now that there's a better way in crypto, but you wanna be using the best platform possible, and that is Vauld. I have been using it myself now for quite a while earning the highest interest rates in the industry. 12.68% on stable coins, 6.7% on ETH and Bitcoin and earning yield on a
Starting point is 00:17:18 ton of other assets. But it's so much more than that guys. They have a robust exchange, you can swap your coins and they have the amazing automatic investment plan where you can dollar cost average. Or more importantly, buy the dip automatically. We know that when the dip actually comes, nobody buys it because they're scared. Well, you can automate that process now with Vauld. Guys, this platform is absolutely incredible. It does everything. They're backed by Pantera and Coinbase Ventures. You really can't ask for anything more. And if you use the link right
Starting point is 00:17:48 down below, you get a 40% kickback on trading fees, 5% commission on interest payouts, and 5% commission on loan interest. Guys, sign up right now at thewolfofallstreets.info slash VAULD. That's V-A-U-L-D. Do it now, seriously. But I ultimately, I look at this innovation cycle is so profound. Look around us, right? You're sitting here, like I say, your mind being blown every half hour, except with this one, present company excluded. And it's because the talent migration into this space, it's like nothing the world has ever seen. People from all walks of life, from technology, from finance, from politics, from societal focused companies, all seeing that this movement can truly change the world. And it's everything
Starting point is 00:18:50 from how we think about ownership, like DAOs versus corporations and LLCs, to how we think about ownership. I mean, I was a big investor. We were big investors in ride sharing. I used Lyft to come here and love it, right? Made lots of money. Uber, Lyft, okay? But every time I get in one now, I think, why does the person who wrote code 10 years ago get 30%? How come it's not decentralized
Starting point is 00:19:17 and owned by us, the users, and the drivers? Drivers, of course. And that will happen, but it hasn't happened yet. And if you think about all of the types of opportunities, well, have you heard the Crypto Boy song? The TikTok thing? Okay, you got to check this out. It's actually, it's a young woman who did this,
Starting point is 00:19:39 it's called an open verse challenge on TikTok, right? And she composed it, and it's actually pretty catchy. It's like Skater Boy, but Crypto Boy. And they did a bunch of collaborations. It's actually a pretty catchy tune. I like it. And the whole message of it is I don't want to hear about your NFTs. I don't want to hear about, you know, crypto. I don't care about your crypto boy. Not one Bitcoin fine but here's the thing i actually composed a challenge an open verse that i was going to record my daughter's like you are not recording on tiktok you are not and i okay so uh but i still composed it and basically i said look fine you don't want to hear about my nfts but here's the thing you just composed this song and it's blowing up on TikTok. It is blowing up on Twitter. Millions of clicks. Well, guess who's getting rich? ByteDance.
Starting point is 00:20:29 If you turned into an NFT, then you would get rich. And the Pussy Riot actually made an NFT with her. So now she does have a little bit of ownership and it's all about ownership and royalties and that is going to be such a monster thing that you think about facebook right how did facebook how does zuck get rich stole the idea from the winklevoss twins maybe it depends on which side you believe allegedly allegedly and And created a free app. Well if it's free, then you're the product. So, and then we, actually not me
Starting point is 00:21:11 because I don't have Facebook, but everyone else puts their stuff out there. And they create content, and then he collects the data, sells it, and makes a lot of money. Like, well wait a second, if I take a cool picture, and I post it, how come I don't get the revenues? Well, that's going to happen. And whether it's our attention, like Best Buy. When I walk by a Best Buy store, my phone should light up.
Starting point is 00:21:35 Mr. Yusko, we got all the stuff you've been looking at in the last week. It's 20 percent off today just for you. Come on in. We'll load it in your car. They don't have to spend one penny on advertising to me. I should get that money because I am addicted to Best Buy. I am addicted to electronics and I'm going to shop there. And same thing with Coca-Cola, right? Pepsi should never spend one penny advertising to me because I don't like it and I'll never drink it. Not ever. And so, but our attention, our focus, our habits, all of that should be monetized for us and our identity. And it is all going to happen. This is the part people like, oh, that's just never going to happen. No, of course it's going to happen. And it's already happening. And it's why I'm doing this, right? You know, I'm old, one.
Starting point is 00:22:25 Two, I'm not from this world. I'm not a techie. I'm not a coder. I'm not a computer scientist. I'm a financial services guy. And people say, well, why would you risk your career to hang out with all these DGens? I'm like, well, one, I'm having more fun than I've ever had. And that is not a condemnation of what I did before.
Starting point is 00:22:44 I loved my chapter one. I loved working for not-for-profits, Notre Dame, UNC. I loved chapter two, built Morgan Creek Capital, right? Very nice asset management company. But Morgan Creek Digital chapter three is awesome. And I'm having a blast and I will tokenize the world for 20 years. And then chapter four, I'll teach. And so, but when I started going down that path, I mean, I had friends, I had family, I had clients say, you're an idiot.
Starting point is 00:23:12 We'll fire you. For what? I'm like, well, this is stupid. This is magic internet money. This is for drug dealers and terrorists. I'm like, okay, but remember the pager? That was for drug dealers. And the internet was for porn and and so
Starting point is 00:23:28 there's this oh yeah um technology always starts at the fringe always starts at the fringe and then people adopt it and then it becomes the standard and so, did people get rich because they bought some weed on Silk Road and they didn't sell their Bitcoin? Absolutely. Now, I joke, I was introduced to Bitcoin the same time as the Winklevoss twins. There's a book about them and they're multi-billionaires and I'm not. Why? Well, because they got it. They were partying in Ibiza and figured it out. I was not running drugs on Silk Road. I was not a cryptography student. In 2013, I was like, I don't get it. But I did get infrastructure. And we've done very nicely investing in infrastructure. But I would have been better off to just embrace Bitcoin early. And Mr. Wall, now it's too late like you joking it's so
Starting point is 00:24:27 early right what is it there always a sentiment in this space maybe any space technology that you're always too late like always and 14 guys are pissed at the 2012 guys who are jealous of the 2010 guys so well said no so well said and yeah like Michael Saylor right he's the Bitcoin evangelist now. Go back 13 years. He wrote a book about Fang. But he's saying Apple was undervalued. People are like, oh, Apple's done.
Starting point is 00:24:56 Apple's dead. It's too late. Not too late. And it's always, to your point, it's always true that people underestimate the change that's possible over the next decade. They overestimate what's possible in the next couple of years. I think that's a Bill Gates quote. And humans aren't just good at math, generally speaking. And they're really not good at exponential math. And the reason I can't stay for the whole conference is I got to go do this Bitcoin Day thing in Charlotte, and I'm going to
Starting point is 00:25:33 open my talk with this primer on exponential math. Take a piece of paper, fold it in half, fold it in half again, one more time, three times. How thick? Human fingernail. Fold it in half. Fold it in half again. One more time. Three times. How thick? Human fingernail. Okay. Fold it seven times. Now try to fold it eight. Can't do it. You literally cannot fold a piece of paper eight times. If you could, okay, it'd be the width of a notebook. What if you could fold it 30 times? How high would that be? A house, telephone pole, atmosphere. How about 50 times? The sun, how about 100 times? The known universe. Again, it just boggles the mind. And so when you think about exponential growth of technology or the fact that 40% of people on the planet,
Starting point is 00:26:29 which is 2.8 billion people or 2.9 billion people, don't have a bank account. Yet they don't need a bank account now because in the old days, if I wanted to send you money, you had to have a bank account, and I had to have a bank account, paid a fee. Now, if I want to send you money, all I have to do is have a wallet. I send you money. You don't even need the internet now.
Starting point is 00:26:46 I don't even need the internet, exactly. And all of these innovations are going to happen. That's the cool part, right? And that's why I say back to the first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you. The cool part is we've already won. We don't even have to wait to win. We've already won.
Starting point is 00:27:04 And yes, the volatility sucks. And yes, the, oh, I feel less rich. Well, part of it is, you know, someone asked me this question. So, you know, I'm all about calm. Calm is an edge. So how do you stay calm? I said, well, one, diversification. I don't have all my eggs in one basket. I have a lot of baskets or a lot of eggs in the basket. I wash the basket. Two is constantly dollar cost averaging and rebalancing, selling the stuff that goes up and buying the stuff that goes down when it's cheap. And then there's just a discipline to wanting to focus on where the innovation is happening. This innovation is an asset class. And the amount of innovation in this space is unprecedented.
Starting point is 00:27:51 It's because the talent migration is unprecedented. I agree. Before we finish, I have to do three things. Cool. One, I want you to show your shirt. All right. Keep calm, we'll print more. Keep calm, we'll print more.
Starting point is 00:28:01 My favorite T-shirt. Second, I want to see your socks. Ah, so I got the Bitcoin roller coaster. The guy has the best socks. And the reason, and so this is Mount Socks. Great name. But the reason it's Bitcoin roller coaster is because roller coaster is not about the ups and downs. It's about at the end of the trip, you're in the same place.
Starting point is 00:28:20 And we've been in the same place for the past year. We had two big ups and big downs. But it's okay. Right? Because what people are missing, it goes to the shirt is in 2000, we printed. Just let this sink in. We've been a republic for 256 years. We printed 50 percent, five zero, one half of all the dollars in the history of the american republic in two years and not surprisingly if we devalue okay the currency by 50 the value of an asset priced in dollars see the problem is people don't price bitcoin in Bitcoin. One Bitcoin equals one Bitcoin. We price it in currencies. There's never been a bear market in Bitcoin in Venezuelan boulevards. There has never been a
Starting point is 00:29:12 bear market in Argentinian pesos. There's never been a bear market in Russian rubles. But we don't spend it in those. We do it in dollars. So from March 2000, when it was $5,000, when it went to $10,000 or $20,000, totally logical because the money supply was expanding. And if I have a pile of a trillion dollars and I print another pile of trillion dollars, the value of that money just went down by half. So now over the last 12 months, money supply for the first time in 13 years actually shrunk a little bit. So the fact that we haven't made any progress priced in dollars, one Bitcoin, still one Bitcoin, but the fact that it's the same
Starting point is 00:29:50 price. And yes, we went up and we went down and went up and went down, but that's greed and fear. And the value of the network, which we can calculate based on Metcalfe's law, is around 32, 33K and whatever that number is. And Tim Peterson, who I'm sure you've had on your show and you should talk to at N Squared Crypto, has this great model. And it works. And we can identify a number of wallets, a number of nodes, a number of transactions. So we can actually model the value of any network, whether it's Amazon, whether it's Apple, or whether it's Bitcoin. But the price is not the value. Price is what two people agree to exchange a small amount of something. So price is a liar, right? There's no information content in price. There's information
Starting point is 00:30:37 content in value. And so when the price was 59K or 69K, it was too high and now at you know 29k it's marginally too low now does that mean it can't go lower no and i tweet about this last night and people are mad at me so look the longer we stay bouncing around 30k the worse this descending triangle and a descending triangle is just a horrible congestion problem for markets and it means there's a lack of buying pressure and there could be selling pressure if we break below that. It's what happened in November of 2018, the last bear market,
Starting point is 00:31:14 our last crypto winner from six to three. We were chilling at six for so long. Yeah. Yeah. And so, and again, I'm not predicting that. And in fact, someone said, we'll do a Twitter poll. And so, and again, I'm not predicting that. Yeah. And in fact, someone said, well, do a Twitter poll. And that was actually good because the Twitter poll, about half said, we're definitely going
Starting point is 00:31:31 to 15. Like, okay, that's good. That's bullish. Because if it was 90%, we're going back to the moon, then I would be worried about the plunge. So anyway, and you said there was one more thing. You're the only person ever on my show who makes me howl. Oh, let's howl.
Starting point is 00:31:46 All right. Two, one. Howl! Time to howl, baby. He's the king of the howl. All right. Thank you so much. That was great.
Starting point is 00:31:54 It's the first time we've met before. I know. We did this in person. I know. So good. Well, thank you for all you do for the community, for people like myself who get a chance to kind of think through the hard questions.
Starting point is 00:32:08 You know, part of the problem I think of society as a whole is we're so focused on answers and we should focus on his questions and we should focus on teaching kids how to ask better questions instead of memorizing answers. And questions is what drives everything. And I love spending time with you because you ask the good questions and I get to think. And just spending time thinking is something we should all do a lot more often. That's why I love podcasting. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:32:41 Everyone makes me think. Awesome. Thank you again. Awesome. Thanks. Thank you so much for listening to this episode. If you haven't already left a rating or a review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, please do that now. Spotify just added ratings, so please go ahead and click that five star.
Starting point is 00:32:57 I'll see you guys next time.

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