The Wolf Of All Streets - Will Bitcoin Crash With The Stock Market? Jon Najarian

Episode Date: December 13, 2023

Investing legend Jon Najarian joins to discuss the macro picture. Follow Jon: https://twitter.com/jonnajarian Follow Christopher Inks: https://twitter.com/TXWestCapital ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►► OKX Sign up for an OKX Trading Account then deposit & trade to unlock mystery box rewards of up to $10,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=453131... ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

All eyes are on Jerome Powell and FOMC today to see what's going to happen with interest rates. Will the stock market finally correct? Are we going to get the crash that our Macro Monday crew has seen coming for a long time? And what would happen to Bitcoin if that does? I've got investing legend John Najarian here joining me to discuss, and of course, Texas West Capital, Christopher Inks, on the back and sharing his charts and trades. Another epic Wednesday. Let's go. yet again to see what Jerome Powell is going to say, how he's going to say it, if he might wink or snort or giggle at the wrong moment. If the guy farts, markets are off 10%, guys. We know

how this goes. I've got legend John Najarian here to discuss that and what he thinks is coming for the markets. I've got this hyperbolic title, like if stocks will crash, will Bitcoin go with it? Last year, you and I were kind of pointing out that they needed to stop their tightening and chill out or they were going to break something. Where do you stand right now with how the market just seems to only go up, regardless of news or anything fundamentally underlying what's happening? Well, last year when you and I were talking in particular about all the various inflationary measures and what the Fed would do. Well, they moved too far too fast this year and through last year into this year. But they didn't break anything except some banks back in March.

And for the most part, we'd probably agree that those banks got broken because they were breakable, number one, and because they screwed up. They had too much, you know, that duration risk that we were all talking about every day in March. They had too much in treasuries, not enough in just deposits in the banks. Because of course, just like Wonderful Life, your money's in Scott's house, John. It's not here. It's not in the bank. It's in Scott's house. All of that is true. It is not in the bank, but they need to have enough to be able to handle things that can get out of hand really fast, like that bank run that we saw. And that's what took down those three banks really were those bank runs. Those banks were fine. They weren't deficit. They didn't invest in the real estate market. But sadly, they took the Fed at their word

two years earlier when they said, lower for longer, we might never raise rates again. I mean, there are also requirements as to what the banks were allowed to put their money in. They literally had to be in those long duration treasuries, basically by policy. So that was the craziest thing to me about the entire just running back in my mind, Silicon Valley Bank and all these, A, was it was all like the crypto and tech banks. That's one side. But B, is that Powell was completely dismissive that the Fed or any policy had anything to do with it. Like the fact that they said that they went higher faster than ever in history and absolutely smashed the holdings of

these banks like that had nothing to do with it. Yeah, it was just like Tom Cruise in the beginning of Maverick Top Gun, you know, where he just blows the roof off of that guard post and so forth with Ed Harris standing out there next to it. That is what the fed did they moved it way too fast um that caught businesses it caught a lot of commercial real estate um it caught some uh just a whole bunch scott of the uh small cap stocks um i mainly trade big cap stocks but i do help and invest in a lot of small cap stocks because, you know, you can get 40x, 50x in those just like you can with Bitcoin. You know, if you are smart enough like you to buy it at 100 bucks. Yeah. Now it's 41, 42,000. You don't get a lot of opportunities

like that in the stock market. You know, every once in a while, of course, you get an Amazon that goes to two or three bucks in 2000 and now is, you know, where it is. And you have, you know, a life a life changing amount of money. But for the most part, those small cap stocks were not able to borrow anymore, Scott. All those doors got slammed shut with Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, with all of the tighter regulations. They didn't enforce tighter regulations, but the banks did on themselves. And in many cases, those runs that we saw, I would put squarely on the Fed and mismanagement at those banks. But when you think about it, March was basically eight months ago. And look at what, you know, and the Fed has moved on rates since March, but then went to the pausing cycle. And we're about

to get another one today. And look at, did they destroy the market? No, the market is resilient as hell. And now the market's betting just like it was afraid. Now it's getting perhaps a little overly exuberant right here. But didn't they want to break the market? That was sort of the narrative the entire time was we either need to break employment or we need to break the market. And they've seemingly done neither. So it kind of surprises me actually that we're not seeing more hikes because in theory, in this, in this, in theory, in this environment, and we know that Powell, I think his tone will remain hawkish, right? They're going to, he's going to say pause, but job not done. He's going to say, I don't know why people are speculating on a pivot. We have no intention of doing that. That's what I think will happen.

But if unemployment is still going down, it went from like 3.8 to 3.6 in the last report, and the market is still ripping, you would think that they would just keep pushing to bring inflation down further, even though we all know inflation is probably just going to fall at this point based on what they've done in the past. Yeah. And the only contra to that is that Janet Yellen is saying she sees 2% in the cards for inflation. And that woman hasn't been right about anything, not her personal style, not inflationary pressures brought by too much cash thrown at all of us collectively by Congress and then signed into law by the president and so forth. She hasn't been right about anything. So the fact that she sees it going back down to two, that's the reason that I'd kind of step away from that. I don't think we're going to get cuts as fast as people think because we're already down to 4.2. We were supposed to remember,

we were supposed to, yeah. I mean, we were supposed to remember we were supposed. Yeah. I mean, we were supposed to literally have three cuts by now. If you look at predictive markets from eight months ago, the predictive markets have been utterly and horribly wrong. I think they just keep pausing and see what happens. There's no reason for them to cut unless it's for Biden. Right.

I mean, unless it's for a political elect for politics or to make sure that the incumbent wins. Yeah, I would agree. There's I don't see cuts in the cards, but quite obviously, three pauses gave us 90 bips worth of easing on that tenure from over five to now, last week it was 410, this week it's 420 or whatever. I mean, that's going to give the markets a nice little lift into 2024, I believe, because people will be looking for opportunities from some of, and I think some of them, I'm not just talking my book, Scott, I really do think we're going to see a lot of small cap stocks start making big comebacks next year. I agree. If rates come down here like this. If rates keep coming down. So here's the question. Like, if you look at the endless array of speeches by Fed governors, right, we get like 10 of them a

week. All of them, they say that we're still going to be, the Fed funds futures rate will still be above 5% at the end of 2024. They're not talking about this pivot at all. They're not talking about these cuts. Then you go to Wall Street and they think we'll be at three and a half, 4%. We're talking about one, 2% cuts from here. That's a huge disconnect, which to your point before means that the market might be way too optimistic. Powell has never changed his tone in a single one of these meetings yet. He's never indicated that we're going to get that pivot. Right. And you're 100% correct on that, Scott. He's been actually extremely transparent. They've done what they said they were going to do. And that's why,

you know, the CME tool right now for measuring this is at 99.9%. I mean, the only thing is, as you said, could he screw, could he misspeak? He could. He's not a bumbling idiot, obviously. I mean him no disrespect. Janet Yellen, I do mean disrespect. But Jerome Powell, I don't mean him disrespect. I think he's done what he said he's going to do and that we're likely to get exactly what you said. We're not done yet. So don't think we're going to start cutting, but we think it's moving in the right direction. I think that kind of talk, again, will spark further gains on Wall Street. Yeah. I mean, I talk about this all the time. The pivot usually comes before the stock market corrects, right? Because they don't generally

pivot until something is broken. So I said, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if they would hike, but I would be the same goes for, I would be surprised if they just don't pause sort of indefinitely here. Like, why would they pivot? Why would they put liquidity back into the market at this point at all? If things aren't going so well, unemployment's low, the stock market's high. Why do anything? Yeah, I agree. They would they would have wrecked what they meant to do by doing that. They would have the pain that they probably suffered at cocktail parties and going before Congress and the like. The pain that they suffered would be amplified if they all of a sudden started cutting, because we'd be right back into an inflationary cycle like that. But they can

stay paused. And if they had a hot reading here or there, could they give us one more hike? I guess so. But it's not in the cards right now, not from the data we see, Scott. And that's just because bonds are ripping and yields are coming down so hard. It's basically doing the job for them, correct? I mean, that's really what we're saying here. Yep. Do you think that they knew that? Every once in a while, they get something like gasoline prices when they went up in the summer. That was good for the Fed.

Not that they want to hurt us necessarily, but they figure people won't spend as freely on other discretionary things if a non-discretionary thing like you going to and from work in your car costs you more money. You'll have less to spend on those discretionary things, which again, supply and demand. So if all of a sudden you take a little bit of the demand off the table, you've got supply is going to start building. And that's just what it did. And now, even with OPEC plus agreeing on 1.3 million barrels a day of cuts, and that's before Saudi or Russia do theirs. Crude oil is back down in the low 70s. Yeah, Mike McGlone comes on every Monday, and he really thinks that oil is going back down in the low 70s. Yeah, Mike McGlone comes on every Monday and he really thinks that oil's going back down

to the 40s apparel. Wow. Well, I love Mike. I think he's wrong here. It's an aggressive take. Yeah, no, listen, we argue a lot on Mondays because we have him every Monday. But he's a good guy.

That's one of the best guys. Not only just a great technician, but a really good guy. Yeah, I would be surprised to see oil that low as well. But does this mean at this point that this recession just isn't happening? Like the most forecasted non-existent recession in history? I mean, I like to point out the fact that it seems like we just kind of got it and it was quiet and there was a recession in Europe and certainly still is. So maybe that's the recession. But I mean, did they literally thread this needle and do the soft landing that I've been saying was impossible for all these years? Am I dead ass wrong about Jerome Powell?

Well, it's been a rolling recession, I would say. And my statement is we were in a recession last year by every known measure. We were in a recession last year. By every known measure, we were in a recession last year. And what happened? Well, communication stocks were down 55 percent. IT stocks, a bunch of the areas, discretionary spending was down big last year, over 40 percent. Now, they're not the measures of a recession, of course, but I'm saying the recession rolled from there to now, many of those stocks doing much better. Obviously, IT stocks, obviously, discretionary spending. What I have found kind of interesting, Scott, is that Abercrombie & Fitch, American Eagle Outfitters,

and so forth, AEO, name-specific brands haven't done well in the last couple reports. But you know who has? The big box retailers that sell everything. So they don't just sell Nike. They don't just sell Abercrombie and Fitch. They sell everything. So people go in, whether it's online or in the stores, and they have a greater selection. People aren't as much into going in and buying those at those retailers that I just named, Abercrombie and so forth. And that has been something very recognizable. They're all after earnings. Every one of those kinds of stocks was down 10 or 12, maybe even 15 percent. And meanwhile, Macy's, even before this bid came in, they were in there, you know, shopping aggressively at Macy's.

Yeah. There's been this narrative that it's been effectively seven stocks that have carried the entire market, right? Obviously, the tech sector, the NVIDIAs and Metas and Amazons and Apples of the world. What happens if they correct? I mean, do you think we're at a point where we're still kind of looking at the seven of them to define what's going to happen? I mean, if, you know, NVID Nvidia drops 30%, what happens to the stock market? Well, and it did have that big drop from 500 when it broke 500, all the way back down to, I think it briefly had a three handle again, certainly down into the low 400s.

Not a 30%, but, you know, a pretty significant correction. And then the US government said, you know what, we're not going to let you sell those high-end chips to China anymore, so take that off. And they did. They have basically started to put out the numbers, what they're going to look like when that goes away. But I think you're right when you talk to me, for instance, about TLT. We had a big trade just the other day. When was it? In fact, two days ago, TLT, we had 21,000 February 103 calls bought. Now that's with the TLT at 94. So somebody is looking for a lot lower rates into February. Do they get it? They could. You know, what if we have enough soft data where the Fed basically feels a little more comfortable? Not at this meeting. It's 99% at this meeting. So don't get your hopes up, folks. But January, February timeframe, could we start to see something?

Somebody put down a pretty big bet and, you know, they only paid 64 cents for those calls. I wouldn't buy those. I'd buy the 95s and start selling, laddering in higher strikes against it because that's what I do. But I think that kind of trade is out there, that people are indeed looking for an extension of lower for longer, or at least pausing for longer. Yeah, it's interesting that the pause could send TLT that high without them actually having to do anything, which I think is exactly what they wanted. Now, all of a sudden, I'm going to have to start like considering that Jerome Powell, even though I'll forever blame him for the problem in the first

place, but maybe they're getting this done. Yeah. And they could get lucky about the soft landing. It certainly has been soft so far. And like I've said, even with that, you know, multiple bank failures or forced mergers, however you want to look at it, shutting down crypto rails and all the rest. I think that was part of the narrative. I think you agree that they didn't like that Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and these guys were as friendly as Silvergate or as friendly as they were to crypto. So I think they wouldn't have minded putting a little hurting on them. There were a couple hundred banks in the exact same financial situation that we've never heard about that have been using the facility or have found a way to remain solvent.

But those three, the three banks in the entire planet that seemingly were banking the crypto industry in the United States happened to go down. I'm not huge on tinfoil hats, but that one seems pretty obvious, at least, that Lizzie Warren and friends made a call. I think so. And, you know, then we even had some of the most worthless, certainly FTT, pretty damn worthless, had huge moves. Solana, huge moves. At least Solana has a use. But FTT after, you know, Sam, nothing but, you know, people that had lined up on the short side of that trade were in a world of hurt really quick. Yeah. What do we think of crypto here then in context? I mean, I know you've always tracked Bitcoin. I don't know how far down the risk spectrum you go these days, but has this move surprised

you? What do you think is driving it? And do you think that it's particularly correlated right now? Do you think that, you know, some bad news from Jerome Powell, which won't happen, could rock crypto as well? Yeah, it could. You know, I'm, of course, an outspoken hater, outright hater of Cohen and what he's done at the SEC. I think he's just an abomination. But rather than dwelling on that, I'll say I think despite him, we're going to get a spot Bitcoin ETF.

When we do, Bitcoin will move 25 to 30% in two days. People are getting ahead of that. I think we'll go back down and test 37 again. Scott, I hope I'm wrong because I know you want to root for it. No, I think big rip, then a huge dip to take profit. And then we go search for all time highs. I totally agree with exactly what you're saying. I've been saying we should go back to 38 or 30. I said 38. So 37 is pretty much the same ballpark. Your numbers are probably more accurate than mine.

But it seems like on the charts, that's where we had so much difficulty to the upside. And that's where we're likely to find support to the downside. And I still like it. I don't know why anybody wouldn't, except Elizabeth Warren and people that don't like us to have sovereignty over our own wealth, whatever wealth that is. It doesn't have to be billionaires and hundred millionaires sent to millionaires that need Bitcoin. But an awful lot of people do need it, especially if they want to force a digital dollar down people's throats and basically control what they can spend on. You know, ask the people in Canada, ask all your fans in Canada how much they appreciated Trudeau basically, you know, locking their cash

up, taking their credit cards away just because they supported the truckers or whatever it might have been at that particular time. That's what the digital dollar is. It gives them control of your wealth. Yeah. Well, it's interesting. You talked about the ETF. There was actually some sort of quiet news about it today. I don't know if you saw this. We've obviously seen all of these companies meeting with the SEC, real progress, real resources, real people pushing towards this. But today, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF now invites participation from Wall Street banks. A change to the structure of proposed spot Bitcoin ETFs would enable authorized participants to create new shares in the fund with cash rather than only with cryptocurrency. This means they're doing this literally for the JP Morgans and Goldman Sachs of the world to not have to put Bitcoin on their balance sheet by participating in the ETFs.

They can do it with cash. It's actually quietly a very, very big move for those who have concern for how they would structure this if the big institutions want to get in there it feels like listen larry fink's not on tv calling crypto a flight to quality if he doesn't think this thing is getting approved and has a shit ton of aum lined up for it right blackrock's not launching uh etf and like 20 million comes in and they're like whatever right i mean they're getting ready for a flood here yeah i, I agree. And in many cases, it could be that firms like BlackRock and, you know, WisdomTree, all the folks that have put up for this would likely be buyers as well as Michael Saylor. You know, it's can they buy in anticipation of an approval, which means they could be stocking up on the stuff at cheaper prices here? Sure, sure. And I think that it's likely that we'll see more of

those that think that they could be the first one out of the gate or one of the first out of the gate to have been buying on the way up here. It's not an insider trade because they don't know if it's going to be approved, but they certainly know the conversations are ongoing. We know exactly why Bitcoin is where it is right now. I think there's a lot of consensus that everybody's trying to get ahead of that obvious trade. I don't even know if you saw this one in institutional news. I just brought this up as well. This is Howard Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald. Talk about another massive powerhouse. I'm a big fan. Cantor Fitzgerald, CEO, praises Tether and Bitcoin. So he said Bitcoin. He likes decentralization. He basically said to be dismissive of all other crypto. But the head scratcher here that got

people absolutely going nuts is he said, I'm a big fan of this stable coin called Tether. I hold their treasuries. So I keep their treasuries and they have a lot of treasuries. He said, then he said down here, they're over 90 billion now. I'm a big fan of Tether. Tether has been the most like flooded, neglected, bad news ever. And it just casually comes out in conversation that Cantor Fitzgerald is custodying their treasuries. Well, and you know, if, if, if he's got a customer that's that big in tether, um, that he has 90 billion, um, in treasuries against it for a stable coin, I'd say that's, uh, uh, number one, Howard's a smart guy. He's a friend.

He's a smart guy and he's, how could you talk bad about a customer that's that big for you? Yeah. I mean, he can figure out ways to make money with that. And I'm sure that Howard is probably rooting on Bitcoin, but very happy about what's going on and has gone on with Tether. So before I let you go, I have a comment over here that you need to read, okay? It's one specific read. It's from a guy, Gregory Russell. My back still hurts from John running me over on the trading floor. That was over two decades ago, LOL. How many people do you run over on the trading floor, John? I don't remember running over anybody on the trading floor, John? I don't remember running over anybody on the trading floor.

You said, you know, you've told me the story how being in the pits was very physical and that the fact that you were big and had played football was a huge, you know, boon for you. Yeah, it was. And I loved the floor. You would have loved it, Scott. The great thing about the floor is, you know, it was backgammon players, chess players, cops, people that were managers of McDonald's. All you had to do is be able to calculate fractions relatively quickly. And if you were aggressive and cut your losses, you know, use discipline, you could make a lot of money down on the trading floor. And I hope our commenter made a lot of money down there. And I would say LOL about me running somebody over. Maybe my brother-

I hope you're not like on his hit list or something, you know, like the guy- Maybe my brother Pete ran him over and everybody confuses us. By the way, Scott, next time I'm on, we got to plug our book. Plug it now. I forgot to tell you before we came on.

It's called It's Not an Option. And the commercials have started running on CNBC. So if you guys are tired of this ugly mug, you're going to start seeing it every day, multiple times a day. CNBC, Fox, CNN, Bloomberg, we're running them everywhere again. This is our fifth book, our fourth book together, my brother Pete and I, and it's called It's Not an Option. Where can we get it?

You go to that website. You can get the thing. It just came out yesterday. Oh, it literally just came out. Awesome. So everybody, guys, go get that. I've read the other books. Absolutely incredible.

Obviously, I'm a huge fan. He said Matt Sui got me too. I ran him over also. Matt Sui. Obviously, I'm a huge fan. He said, Matt Sui got me, too. I ran him over also. There was a tough little guy. Fullback for Peyton. Matt was a great Penn State running back. Smart guy. Pretty quiet,

but did very well on the trading floor. Matt was a smart guy. I'm trying to get out of the way of ex-NFL players personally. So I'll be in the corner hanging out by myself. John, thank you so much. Guys, everybody buy the book. Also follow John right down below. Let's get you and Pete on to talk about the book soon. We'll get you on that. I'll email you soon. Perfect. Thank you, man. I really, really appreciate it, guys. Investing. I appreciatees. Thanks, buddy. All right, man.

All right, everybody. That was awesome. Go get the book right now. Seriously, you can do it. Hey, before I bring on Chris, there's something I want to bring on. Drucified, are you here? I didn't see you here yesterday, but I thought I saw you here today. But guys, Drucified, our very own Drucified in the chat,

quietly has this amazing Etsy store, Crypto Designs Co., where you can buy shirts like SVB, Risk Management Department, and Bitcoin, and Lehman Brothers Risk Management, and you can get Pepes, and you can get Christmas sweaters with FTX, and you can get transitory inflation, and a million things over here. He DMed know he uh he dm'd me like he was gonna send me a free sweater i appreciate that i'd rather buy it but guys like we literally have the opportunity and i literally don't even uh take sponsors very often we will soon but or shill things but this store is awesome and you guys should be up in this store uh definitely supporting him buy the buy the effing dip uh from charlie Munger over here. We got Go Fuck Yourself from Elon Musk.

All the mugs and shirts and sweaters you need. Guys, buy them. Buy them for each other for Christmas and Hanukkah and Festivus. We all celebrate Festivus here. That's my unexpected. Drew, I know you didn't ask me to do that, but I was digging into it and it's awesome. I'm going to be buying some stuff. You guys should be doing the same. All right, guys. Now we get to talk, Chris, about the market. What's happening? FOMC. Is it a nothing

burger? Do we care? Are you standing up? I am standing up, man. I finally got the desk. It finally came in. Took forever. But yeah. I do not. I've been in this office for a year and a half, which is in my house. I do not have a chair. I've never had a chair in here. Well, I'm just starting out. So I do have a chair still. But, you know, hey, I'm getting about three, four hours of straight standing. So, you know, just got the desk. I'm really excited about it. Hurt my back not too long ago, so I needed to do something, but yeah, but that's awesome. That's the awesome about Drucified, man. I love to see that. Really quick, really quick guy. I see someone asking for the link. It's etsy.com. I don't, I can put it in the description later. I wasn't expecting etsy.com slash shop slash crypto designs, CO, uh, that should get you there. But I think if you go to Etsy and

search, uh, just trying to, you know, I don't want to waste all your guys' time, but if you probably search crypto designs co I'm assuming that this will come up. Yeah. A whole bunch of stuff. That's all from him. So you, you get the idea. Do that. Sorry. All right. You were saying. That's awesome. That's awesome. So, yeah. Um, but yeah But yeah, man, you know, we got FOMC today. I don't think I don't think we get any any kind of surprise rate hike or anything. You know, CPI, all that kind of stuff keeps coming down generally. You know, we just had yesterday came in in line with expectations down point one from last month. So core in line again as well you know energy is down i think five and a half percent um this year um maybe even better better than this year uh more recently but

anyway uh you know that that's usually been a big drag as we had the big rally up um you know after 2020 there when we had that big drop uh we had uh seemed like energy just kind of uh oil especially just kind of uh oil especially just kind of kept on going up forever but um yeah i don't see uh i don't see anything come out says we're going to have any kind of um surprise rate hike or anything i think we're we're in fact i think the fed um is actually looking at a rate cut i would say probably i would say probably end of Q1, I think, probably maybe at the latest. I hear you like it. You think it's coming.

What's the premise behind that? Just politics getting ramped up in the election year? Everything's not broken. Might as well let it fly. Yeah, I mean, we could do that. There's this talk that Jerome Powell's maybe Powell's maybe, you know, uh, done this soft landing. Uh, you know, I don't know yet.

Uh, we'll wait and see what happens, but I mean, damn, you know, uh, SMP and everything's getting up near the all time highs again already. Uh, you know, it was a year ago. Everybody thought it was, uh, the beginning of the end, uh, you know, big, huge depression coming in. Um, so a lot of people caught off sides this year. Uh, the Russellsell 2000 i think is most interesting right now because it looks like it may be uh right i don't have it up at the moment

but yeah i'm just bringing your charts up to get ready so i don't forget but yeah i might pull up here in a minute but actually you know what let me go and pull up here real quick and i can talk about it it is interesting because it's all small caps and that was kind of what john was just talking about so oh was he he? Okay, yeah. They've been down, and then they went sideways. They've been sideways for almost like 600 days, I believe, here. Yeah, 543 days coming out of here. Just kind of bring this out here. So whereas your major indexes kept going up, we went sideways.

So we've been sideways here since uh right around june of 2022 and uh i mean this looks like it's looking a lot like an accumulation range here where uh i think we'll get a rally up toward this descending channel resistance and then potentially a uh a rejection there to pull back and then the big breakout uh but man i mean you know it just range low bounce that range low bounce you have all the that range low bounce where you have all those arrows pointing i remember watching that here and being like because it was breaking i was like man are small caps about to like rage or is it freaking over like yeah i remember kind of emotionally watching that one

yeah and so you know when you think about you go okay well um you know basically it's been the Like, yeah, I remember kind of emotionally watching that one. Yeah. And so, you know, when you think about it, you go, okay, well, you know, basically it's been the Magnificent Seven this year, you know, more or less. Stocks in general, the large caps have been up about, I think, an average 5%. And then the Magnificent Seven has been up huge, which is why it kept on going up, right? And so I had this question the other day that says, listen, I didn't, somebody was talking about the S&P. They said, man, I don't understand how can the, the, the Magnificent Seven basically be down and the index still be up. And I said, for the same reason that

everything could be down a little bit, they'd be up a lot and it goes up a lot or everything had to be down and they're up a lot. It still goes up. I said, you know, uh, you've got a lot of other stocks in there. And so basically thinking of just across the entire stock market, if we've had our majors doing well, and now they can start pulling back and now we've got all these, uh, you know, small caps that are now actually, they've been doing their accumulation for almost, you know, 550 days. Well, why the hell can't it continue going up? You know?

And so I think it's an important thing to watch right now. I think it's a, because again, I think it, everybody that's think everybody that's scared of a crash in 2024 may not actually get that based on what we're seeing here. If we get this kind of movement that I'm looking at right now. So, yeah. All right. Let's dig into the crypto charts. I know you got a few up there. Yeah.

Let me see here. You got almost as many tabs as me. Well, first thing here is Bitcoin. Everybody freaking out. We had this bearish divergence. So we got the kick here. We got basically rejected. I can't remember if it was your show or my show where I said we were looking at the top of the, you know, maybe $50,000 to $45,000, the top of this channel.

But we get up there. Our three pips would get rejected. We're finding support at the R2 pivot. The ascending channel uh resistance has support this blue line is the 21 sma i mean you know and we've got this potential kind of parabolic move here kind of come in maybe but i mean that's all it's been so far and everybody's very very bearish right now which gives me pause about further downside at the moment i mean you know again everybody jumping on the oh we're finally getting it. We've been waiting forever. We're finally

getting it, but we're not getting any further down. Right. So we got this big drop here. And then what happens when they get another attempt here, volumes just dropping off considerably right now, we've got this hidden bullish divergence, stoke RSI reset down and oversold almost bottomed out there. Um, and I still stand by this idea that we came in really aggressively here in the pivot. And the odds are we continue up toward at least the R5. But now with this pullback, likely, you know, the R5 up here, 49,000, some change, if not 50,000. So

nothing shaped me there. Now, can we still come down? Sure. If we do, we're looking at, you know, maybe 38.8, maybe 32.1, or I mean, 38, one, but you just threw a casually slipped 32, one in there. You're going to scare people. 38, one, you're saying guys, you know what I was going to say there was everybody has been still waiting for that. I know I'm getting like a lot of DMs from people who haven't bought all this here. And now they're really thinking, okay, I'm going to get this 30,000, 32,000. And honestly, I don't think you do. I think if it comes down further, this right here is going to hold, you know, and it goes up. Now, I could be wrong, but damn, right?

So right now, I like what we're seeing here. I like when we zoom into 15 minute what we're seeing. If we clear this, what was this yesterday, swing high, this is a bit stamp chart here. That's about 42,071. If we clear that, there's little reason why we shouldn't fill in this, uh, this daily fair value gap all the way up here to the R3 pivot back up here to, you know, 43 and a half thousand. And if we're there, why, why are we coming back down? We're not, you know, we're going right back up. So, um, had a lot of, uh, a lot of very bearish, uh, comments yesterday,

uh, on Twitter, but, um, or X or whatever the hell it's called and i just i you know put it going out sure but right now it's not saying it's going to so we'll see what happens right so that kind of so yeah what does this mean for you for the rest of the market like we've got this kind of correction i mean there's been a lot of all coins still running or oh yeah yeah one of my i think one of my more favorite ones to look at, this is on your OKEx exchange, a ton, USDT. This is the daily Stoke RSI reset down at oversold. RSI just about reset. We had this big pullback here. I'm really thinking this is probably the end of the pullback here and we're going to rally up. But if you want to be more safe, you can wait till

breakout above this kind of swing high here at about two dollars and 37 cents but if you get that i think we'll go up three dollars and you know three dollars and a quarter or so on that one and i think that's one of the better setups uh because so many of the alts are you know overbought or almost overbought here on stoke arson arson the daily this one had this nice dip large demand wake lots of uh demand showing up and uh you know finding support around that s1 so we're breaking out here we should be looking up there so that's one of my favorite ones right now um we've got some smaller ones here everybody watching avax avax just continues to pop up higher and higher and higher um we've got three waves down here we broke out above it so that's

to suggest that this is corrective and we're gonna head up higher um now that doesn't mean we can't have a flat where we rally up to the swing high here and then pull back to the swing low and then go or a triangle but nonetheless based on the height here of this pullback we should at least get to 49 and a half so psychological 50 level right there um and you and then, you know, so I, you know, I don't want to really get much bigger targets that right now, because again, you know, this is the four hour,

but like I was saying with the daily, right. Very well overbought daily stoke, RSI and RSI, um, coming up in there, but yeah, I feel like we'll get rotation.

I feel like what we're happening is like, you got this huge, I was talking about this yesterday and I think they'll all continue to run, but like Solana had its huge run and their whole ecosystem ran. Then AVAX had its huge run, but the whole ecosystem, everything related to it ran. So maybe as each of these cools down, then it goes to like we saw Cosmos was starting to do that and their whole ecosystem yesterday. And then DOT, you know what I mean? So I think we're just doing that cycle where people like move money from one to the next.

Yeah, I agree. I think, you know, those that have the means to do so are going to do so. Most of the market is going to continue to, you know, be bearish. And even if they get in, they're probably going to paper hand it pretty quickly just because they're so scared they're going to lose money.

And they want to get in because everything's been rallying so much and maybe they haven't been in so much this year. But, you know, the first signs that things are going to get a little scary for them, you know, they're going to freak out. But yeah, I think we got 49.50 at least. And you know what? first signs that things are going to get a little scary for them, you know, they're going to freak out. But, yeah, I think we got $49.50 at least. And you know what?

If we continue up through there, I mean, look up here around $57. It's the R5 pivot on the daily. Again, aggressive move into the pivots here, rallying up. Same thing I was talking about on Bitcoin. You know, reject the R3, pull back to the R2. Bitcoin just pulled back a little bit further. You know, breakout higher, continue there. So I think there's a little bit more still left for AVAX here coming into it.

Let me see what I got. I got Cass here. Cass has been another one that has really been moving, you know, up from the lows down here in May. Just it's just beautiful here. Beautiful bit. Got some accumulation here. Reaccumulation rally back up. I believe we've got reaccumulation happening again right here. This is a daily. Soaccumulation rally back up. I believe we've

got reaccumulation happening again right here. This is a daily. So this is another one kind of like ton. Stoke RSI reset down and oversold. RSI about neutral, starting to curl back up. We've got this great looking range starting higher. So if we can get some impulsive breakout here, at least the descending resistance and preferably preferably the mid-range right here around what is that right around 13.3 cents i think that gets us a minimum expected target at about 18.6 cents or so okay yeah yeah so i'm looking at that um i think you know but again we want to see that breakout we've got three waves down here or finishing out three waves. We might dip to that pivot. If you see a dip to that pivot on a smaller timeframe, like a four hour, one hour, and

you've seen some sort of a bullish divergence, hidden bullish divergence pin bar on that support, there's something like that. It's probably a good indication. It's going to reverse there and, you know, and kind of just take off up through this range here and continue off, but minimum 18.64 or so cents i think and that could open up a bit further you know 21 and a half cents here at r2 but minimally i think that's what we get what was that anything else i say anything else what else you got uh ranger's been you know ranger's been another one's been running running running running four hour here. Again, it looks like we've got a three-wave

move down. I've got this target up here about $4.64. We'll see if we can get there. If we pull this out to the daily. Let's see here. Come on. There we go. Through the daily again, getting over

bought here. Stoke RSI getting over bought. I think we kind of see that. If we can get a rejection there, I'd look for a pullback, you know, down into this wick here, maybe around $3.50 and see if you can get a reversal out of that. If you can't, if you can get a reversal, that's likely going to break out, you know, above whatever that swing high has been there and head up higher. But really, it's the loss here. It's the loss here around $3.

That'll really kind of say, okay, we're probably going to pull back, you know, down here toward $2, $2 and 10 cents. If we lose that, as long as we've got that though, especially if we get caught in this week right here, like I was just saying around the three and a half dollars, I think it'll, you know, pull back. I think we'll continue up a bit more anyway, at least so, but you know, like AVAX, I think it's kind of getting a little, a little long in the tooth there. Yeah. Can I point something out real quick? There's something I've been doing in the, in my newsletter, actually, if you guys aren't

subscribed to wolfden.substack.com, but what I've been doing the last week is everybody always wants set up, set up setups. And I took all this time. I said, I'm just going to start taking all the coins three or four a day and just charting the weekly levels and just have fun. Zoom out, chart the weekly levels, do with them what you want. But I want to show you why that's so important when we got this correction. Now, ADA is breaking, but look where it stopped. And earlier this morning, it was right at a key weekly level that I showed. Matic, rejected right at a major key weekly level. Solana, rejected right at a major key weekly level. Solana rejected right at a major key weekly level. These are, mind you, these are all the ones that have run before, right? Link rejected at the most key

weekly level that you have right there. AVAX getting rejected right now at a key weekly level. So all of these have run level to level on large timeframes. And then you can just start to inject it, by the way, making a new all-time high. HBAR hasn't gotten there, right? So HBAR breaking out and still going up. Atom breaking through a key weekly level. We're talking about the Cosmos system. So now that should run up to 15. So you can see these cycles, I think, just by looking at the really high timeframe levels.

That's why I just started sharing them. I don't want to tell you what to do. Do what you want with them. But if you're right at resistance, you can literally just go to another L1 that is breaking resistance. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Exactly. Because, you know, for those that don't know, I mean, that's what happens here generally in crypto as we go through cycles, you know, you're going to get these cycling through the, you know, the different, you know, market caps and whatnot and different projects. And so, yeah, you know, it just, it doesn't

guarantee anything's going to do anything, but man, you know, if you want to get any easier way of, Hey, let's figure out what to enter. Um, just pay attention to, you know, to what's actually rallying there and then, you know, and look at the next one. Um, I think it's a great idea. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, this guy says that's not a setup. Yeah. That's the point. I'm telling you, here's just the levels, just play them level to level and stop worrying about it. It's, you know, easy. Yeah. Real quick here. I kind of posted this, uh, the, I think yesterday there, uh, or, you know, yesterday, the day

before they're on Twitter and, uh, it's Amazon, uh, not saying it's a, you know, an ascending triangle, but just trying to point out, we've got, um, you know, consolidation up toward resistance, looking for the breakout. We broke out this morning. We've got a lot of room here on the daily RSI and Stoke RSI to continue up. I think minimally, uh, you and Stoke RSI to continue up. I think minimally, you know, as long as we continue up above where we got today, 155 and three quarters is an easy target, I think.

But, yeah, I mean, it looks like a pretty great setup heading up through there. Maybe we get there and kind of pull back down toward, you know, this congestion area before heading up higher. But, you know, it's a pretty easy target based on continuing to rally on this breakout. So, yeah. Perfect. And other than that, man. There's a request for you. Will you chart one for somebody?

Sure. Go for it. Christopher Walker. Scott, can Chris chart the stock for us? AQST feel like it's ready to break out. Might as well take the one guy asking for something christopher's always here you guys have the same name yeah yeah he's got the same name that's what i got to uh aqst it's stock aqst i have no idea what this is guys just you know trying to help

you guys out don't have to you just have to uh see the chart right uh can't put it up here aqst quest of therapeutics yeah let's see your volume volume's okay uh and what did he say this one looks like what let me go back uh looks like it's ready to break out i don't really see that visually i mean it's finding support here where you would want to find support um to me breakdown always means like it's at a key level and about to push through and that looks like it's kind of hanging out in the middle of that consolidation but maybe it means breakdown um well i mean it looks like we've got uh i'm off the swing low here it looks like potentially one two three four so i mean locally um if we can get a rally back up through here yeah we should be looking around

this r1 pivot here on the weekly which gets us right around three dollars and twenty three thousand three dollars and 25 cents um and as you can see you know it's key level there as you can see if you look across uh support level in that so um i think i think locally here, let me zoom back out again here for the daily. See that daily Stoke RSI has reset down there. Let me kind of zoom in just a bit more here, four hour. Not really a clean look down here, but yeah, if we can pop out above this pivot here, right around $2.25, I think we go to three and a quarter uh getting up there so if we do break down further i'd look for a rally here off the s1 right around a dollar and three quarters uh and in that case we'd actually go up there to around three dollars and forty cents so yeah if we break out here three and a quarter if we get down the s1 i'd look for a

reversal there and then we break out here we think we quarter. If we get down to S1, I'd look for a reversal there. And then we break out here. I think we're looking at around $3.40. Perfect. See, guys? See? Don't say we never did anything for you. All right, man. That was awesome.

Guys, follow TX West Capital. We're going to be off next week, Chris. I didn't tell you, but I'm not doing YouTube. I'm going to be, obviously, kids are off. So that means I'm off at least. Yes, yes. least. Yes. Yes. Right.

So, but you got, you got anything going on special for the holidays with your subscribers? I'm throwing this out there. I don't know, but like, are you, what are your plans with, with what's going on with the group?

Yeah. So, you know, we're, we're delving much, much more into coaching. So we're going to actually raise our prices at the beginning of the year quite a bit.

So I'm going to have one more, um, special for people to get in. Uh, they can get it in for a lot less than the current, uh, annual, and they'll be able to keep that, uh, that price if they, you know, if they choose to renew their year after year, uh, rather than we're, we're going to raise price. We're probably about double prices. So, um, it's well worth it. Uh, you know, again, just kind of understanding how markets work and how to play them and why I don't subscribe

to all the emotional stuff that everybody kind of throws out there and, you know, basically teaching you how to do what I did this year, which is all these damn bottoms and calling them out there and getting on them. So yeah, that's what we're going to do. In the face of a whirlwind of haters. Yeah, it's a good time. Yeah.

All right guys, that's all we got. Got 20 minutes until Spaces. I got to go prep for that. And then I'll be back tomorrow. Chris, man, thank you so much. Appreciate it. Appreciate it, man. See you when we're back.

Bye, everyone. And go buy a shirt or a mug or a sweater from Juicified. Do it now. Take it. Do it. All right. Bye, guys. Let's go.