The Wolf Of All Streets - Will The Ethereum ETF Approval Spark A Major Crypto Rally? | Macro Monday

Episode Date: May 28, 2024

Join Dave Weisberger, Mike McGlone and today's special guest, Larry Lepard, as we break down what's happening in macro and crypto! Dave Weisberger: https://twitter.com/daveweisberger1 Mike McGlone: https://twitter.com/mikemcglone11 Lawrence Lepard: https://x.com/LawrenceLepard ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEKDAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ ►► The Arch Public Unleash algorithmic trading. Discover how algorithms used by hedge-funds are now accessible to traders looking for unparalleled insights and opportunities! 👉https://thearchpublic.com/ ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000! 👉https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. Use code 'TENOFFSALE' for a 10% discount. 👉https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker ►►NGRAVE This is the coldest hardware wallet in the world and the only one that I personally use. 👉https://www.ngrave.io/?sca_ref=4531319.pgXuTYJlYd ►►NORD VPN GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #macromonday Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 2:00 Macro update 6:00 Crack up boom 11:00 T+1 14:20 Carry trade and Yen 25:30 Bitcoin and gold 32:00 Price manipulation 46:00 The case for bonds 51:30 Ethereum The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investmen

Last week was arguably the biggest week in the history of crypto. We saw an Ethereum spot ETF approved out of nowhere after Trump made a wholesale reversal on his crypto position and Biden clearly on the ropes, also backing off of his anti-crypto army rhetoric. This all comes in the context of a backdrop of macro that Mike McGlone is so good at summing up for us. Today, we have a stand in for James Lavish. We're replacing his bot with Larry Lepard.

Very excited to have him here today. Myself, Mike, Larry and Dave are ready to go. Let's go. time today not in his car we've got mike mcglone mr morning meeting himself and of course a guy who's much handsomer smarter and uh measured and brilliant than james lavish who we can now say bad things about while he's not here larry lapard larry welcome and nice to meet you i don't think any of those things are true though it doesn't matter this is with you scott and mike this is show business larry this is show business we you know we don't say anything true here so mike listen no morning meeting right we had a memorial day yesterday obviously markets are off but maybe you can give us the

quick summary and then after that before we dive into any crypto i want to talk about the move to t plus one and i'm sure dave will get really excited about that. Cool. Well, I just saw Dave slug a whole bunch of that energy drink. So we got to bring on the caffeine. So I want to start with one headline I saw in the terminal this morning that as Russian firms turn to crypto for China commodities trade, they're talking about tether. It's a key thing. I a key thing I've been pointing out and love enjoying pointing out in crypto for over five years now when people talk about Bitcoin, I'm like, meh, the most widely traded crypto is the dollar, tether. That's still the indication I think that's the key thing. I'll start there where things are going on a global basis. So people are expecting

a weak dollar with US rates really high and wars going on and the whole world of crypto shifting to the dollar and space layer. I always like to say, yeah, good luck with that one. So that to me is a key thing I want to start with, but I did have a good chance this weekend to spend, I was in New York last week, spent some time in Connecticut. I hooked up with some of the people I was somewhat in contact about the, that GBPC trade and ETHE trade. And my sense from that hot money is that most of them are out of the trades now, out of those macro, those ARB trades, what they use is ARB. And these are the kinds of people like to put on stuff

really big in size, two legs. You don't just get long or get short and are in gold now. So that's the macro i'm writing in some at least from our economics team our egg are they didn't have a meeting today but the the main um sense from anna wong is u.s unemployment's going to be inching towards 4.4 percent this year stuff we talked about it's you know clearly going higher and obviously inflation going lower but i just want to open some macro in my space real quick and that is just did my agriculture outlook agriculture prices are likely to continue to drop on the back of the high price cure there's massive supply

and we basically need a drought in the u.s for corn to go above five drought needs to be in that same sentence in metals i look at the only major enduring metal, I think it's going to continue higher as gold. China's buying them. We've had bounces in silver and copper, but a lot of that has been on speculative frenzies and futures bidding up those prices. And typically those become a bit short term. Same thing in crude oil, had pretty massive speculative frenzies, bump prices up and they failed. So those are kind of deflationary forces.

And I want to tilt over to the macro. The macro to me is overwhelming when you start with the U.S. stock market at two times market capitalization of the U.S. stock market at two times GDP. It's all that matters. And that is what the Fed's running into right now. Stock market goes up. Inflation stays sticky. They can't ease.

I still stick with the premise of the Fed cannot ease until Stock market goes up, inflation stays sticky. They can't ease. I still stick with the premise of Fed cannot ease until stock market goes down, brings down inflation and brings down everything. And remember, this hasn't happened since the 1930s. We have two times market cap inflation in GDP. And then I look over things at volatility. That's been hitting the tape a lot this week and how VIX is so low, 12 handle on the VIX. The key thing is I like to look on volatility as you just look at a 52 week average minus out the T-bill and it's the lowest since 2007. Those are the signals that really kicked in

for the crisis back then. Then you look over the big picture macro. Everybody, I keep hearing how, oh, we're coming out of this in Europe and China. I'm like, what are you smoking? These are what usually happens in markets, but it's still early days because the whole world's completely dependent

on the US to do well and the US stock market go up. But you look at Chinese government bond yields at 2.3%, that's over 200 basis points below the US. So to me, the macro is the tilt is really towards risk. And then I'll end with this, the fastest horse in the race bitcoin and next to ethereum have had perfect storm for higher prices and new highs and now that's over now we're in the hangover and if i'm right about beta having a problem i'm still worried

that bitcoin should lead the way and then i'll so and that the key thing is i'll just end key thing is bitcoin has been on these, you know, these, and a ratio versus gold ratios versus stock market ratio versus NASDAQ. The highs are in 2021. It's still somewhat underperforming. Dave, I suspect you got something to say. I think you just have to say what you think. So it's pretty straightforward to sum up the macro three words, crack up, boom. I'll throw in a fourth word, stagflation. The Fed is not going to ease, I agree with you there, until there's stock market correction, unemployment, et cetera. And maybe they'll do a token rate cut to try to help out Sleepy Joe. But I think that the reality is while they're not cutting rates, they're going

to be injecting liquidity and printing money because they have to. Because Japan can't afford the United States tight liquidity conditions because we can't afford tight liquidity conditions. I think the 10 year is what they're managing for. And they need the 10 year to stay roughly where it is. I mean, under four and a half, they're happy. It starts getting toward five five, every time it does that, and it's happened three times now in the last, you know, whatever, you know, eight months, I guess, you know, they've injected liquidity one way or another, whether it's through reverse repo, whether it's through swap lines, whatever, they will find ways to put liquidity in the market because they need to. The fiscal stimulus that's coming with $2 trillion deficits is enormous,

and that money has to go someplace. And frankly, that money has gone into beta, and it's literally the most classic theft of assets from the poor to the rich that we've ever seen, and it's only accelerating. And that is what's happening. That's the macro backdrop. That's why the idea, the call for recession that we've been hearing for two years has been wrong. It's because it's not. It is what it is. And, you know, if you look at the averages, I always, you know, look, I ran stat arb deaths for a decade. And one of the first things that you learn is averages are deceiving. The average might look like one thing, but the average could be because a 10% could be less, have outsized performance compared to everything else.

And so you need to be very careful about what you're looking at with averages. But the thing that bothers me about the prediction and every time you say, oh, the Bitcoin goal ratio, I mean, pick the time frame, dude. I mean, you're right. 2021 was a high. We are one-fourth the network-adjusted high of Bitcoin. And even on an inflation-adjusted high for Bitcoin, by any real measure of monetary inflation, we're probably half that level. So there's a lot of room to run before we get into any fundamental issue. But why is it doing what it's doing? Well, because we are at the nominal all time high. We have the new investor on the margin looking at this and thinking exactly the way you are. And we have lots and lots of demand that is starting to crank up that hasn't gotten there yet. And we keep talking about this. The same reason the Bitcoin ETF was by every measure of spectacular success. Why?

Because of retail, because people who already were orange-filled and couldn't figure out a good way to get their money into it. What we now have is the slow, steady grind of, I don't know what the number is, between BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise, and ARK, and all the other salespeople that are out talking to RIAs and FAs about currency debasement and showing them exactly what's going on. And it lines up exactly perfectly with the ridiculous, I call it ridiculous because statistically it's ridiculous, but with the four-year cycle that we've gone through three of. What happens in every happening is the same. As we approach the happening, people get excited. We get a little rally. The happening happens. People are terrified that the miners are going to fail. And until they're convinced that the network is going to survive the happening,

it kind of stays in the doldrums for a few months. And then as people start getting confidence again, then that's when the rally happens. And every single time it's been that way. And it's lining up exactly for the fall when the 2025 election of where we're going to allocate our assets from an army of RIAs, FAs, money managers, et cetera, now all will have a product to do it. That has been my thesis all along. That hasn't changed. Now, that said, let's zoom into what happened last week, and I want to talk about T Plus One. T Plus One is one of the funniest things ever. All of you have seen the movie Other People's Money,

right, where Danny DeVito gives arguably one of my favorite soliloquies in movie history. If you haven't seen it, you should watch it. He plays a character called Larry the Liquidator, and Larry the Liquidator goes on this speech. Is that you, Larry? What?

Is that you? Different Larry. We have him here. Larry Lepard the Liquidator. Three L's. It's alliterative. We got it. The whole part of his speech is he talks about the best damn buggy whip manufacturer out

there was the last one. But they were all going to die because of fiber optics, et cetera. So now we have Wall Street moves to fastest settlements of trades in a century. So yeah, now the day after you do a trade, there will be settlement a full 24 hours later most of the time. What people aren't talking about are a couple of things. I don't know what the exact number is, but it's north of $2 billion of investment in technology on Wall Street in order to make this analog system that relies upon paper certificates sitting in a vault under 55 Water Street. And I know because it was the first place I worked on Wall Street in 1984, this paper, this analog system, which has batch processes that can now run a little bit faster than it used to be to settle trades.

What will be the other statistic that will be fascinating, and bit faster than it used to be to settle trades. What will be the other statistic that will be fascinating? And we have to dig deep to find someone. I have to find someone who does what I did 30, 40 years ago, which is to understand what the fail rate is. Fail, you ask? What is a fail? Well, a fail is something called, it's called a fail to deliver or a fail to receive. And the whole system of the stock market that is T plus one is called RDP. Most of it is receive versus or deliver versus payment. That system is what tells you when things don't settle. And when they don't settle for three days after the settlement date, so now instead of five days, it'll be four days, then they have something that's called a buy-in, where you have to go to the market to buy the stock to make up the settlement equity trades is that in crypto if you want

to short something you have to borrow it and then make it and have it there ready you could borrow it from the exchange potentially and maybe they can smooth a few things out but the reality is settlement credit doesn't rarely rarely sorry settlement credit rarely come on dave get it together man yeah settlement credit rarely extends beyond a day uh in anything and and you have to actually borrow it in in the case of equities you do what's called a locate and you say oh i can borrow it if i need it and then you can use that to go short and long and whatever and you get all sorts of reasons why this is a horrendously bad system. And we don't go into it. This changes none of that. All this does is goes, it's really T plus five to T plus four, because that's when the

fail to deliver is resolved. And so anybody who thinks, yes, this does decrease risk and it is a good move, but it's the best damn bug you would manufacture. Because if anyone believes in 20 years, all of this isn't going to be done on a blockchain with on-demand settlement, the way crypto trades, you're not paying attention. This is the last gasp of what Wall Street can do before I'll go into the new technology. Yeah, this is Blockbuster putting candy in the checkout aisle. I mean, it's a little better than that.

It's Blockbuster figuring out maybe how to do what it's more like what Netflix did to Blockbuster by allowing you to put things in the mail and letting it cross. But it was still these discs that you had to put into your DVD player if you wanted to watch things. It really is that. And it's it's important to understand because this goes live in a week that we literally saw the U.S. Congress do a 180. And I'm talking way too much. So I'm going to stop it. You teed me up with all of this stuff. Yeah, Larry gets to unpack a lot. We got him here. I would first like, Larry, what do you think since we have a debate here from the beginning? Mike thinks obviously top is soonish. And, you know, we are going into an inevitable recession. Dave's thinking crack up, boom.

Where do you stand? Yeah, it's a very tough call. I mean, there's no right answer here. It's just probabilities. I think I lean a little more towards Dave's view of it. I was very much of the view that the market was a bubble. And, you know, we all know the valuation measures are all stretched to enormous extremes. And VIX is incredibly, I mean, it's, it's crazy the way they've got it wired,

but let's face it, they do have it wired. And I never thought David Hunter made any sense, but now I'm beginning to think maybe he does make sense. You know, that they're just going to keep, you know, the foot on the, on the gas pedal in terms of spending. And as long as these carry trades are working, which I think is what's going on, you know, the foot on the gas pedal in terms of spending. And as long as these carry trades are working, which I think is what's going on, you know, if you look at all the growth in the, you know, in the risk parity trades, and there's some good charts and data on that,

I think they can kind of continue to wire it higher forever. It's not a market. It's kind of a Franken market. But, you know, I would view it as being, I think we're, I lean towards the crack up boom. I mean, I've lost too much money buying puts for the last few years. I've stopped. I just, I've given up on it, which means it's probably about to plummet. Yeah, so recession tomorrow. When I stop buying puts, that's exactly right. Yeah, I'll wait.

Dave, tell me when you stop buying puts and then I'll start. Larry, can I ask you a question? Because I've often thought that the carry trade is the thing we need to keep our eye on the most. So Japan, I mean, I have a hard time making sense of the interconnectedness. So the yen, the BOJ is defending the 160 level, right? What happens if they run out of ammo or they have to, and the yen depreciates too much? You know, what happens if they, you know, they run out of ammo or they have to, you know, and the yen depreciates too much? I mean,

what happens? Well, I mean, I think we saw that. One, we know that Yellen went over there and they offered, we're offering them swap lines, so there's probably stuff happening behind the scenes. We also know there's a good chance that they're going to be able to buy oil and yen. That's why, you know, MBS was scheduled to go there. I guess he got sick and didn't. But

Craig Shapiro on Twitter does a very nice job of tracking some of these things. And the biggest problem is they've got to import all this oil. They've got no oil, obviously. And paying for it in dollars with the yen depreciating is an inflationary and difficult thing for them. If they can get the Middle Eastern countries, the Gulf countries to take yen for oil, and then the Gulf countries, if they don't want to buy things from Samsung or Toyota, turn around and convert it into gold in Dubai, which is probably what they'll do.

That's another brick in the wall of the dollar being less relevant as a reserve currency or reserve asset, which I think is what's happening. To me, the short-term squiggles on all this are hard to judge, hard to read, hard to know. I tend to try and dial back a bit, look out from a longer view and keep it simple, stupid. What I know that's very positive and I'm really quite excited about is that the three sound money assets are all breaking out. And I say, you know, the three sound money assets, I refer to Bitcoin as being the highest alpha,

most aggressive sound money asset, because, you know, it's got a lower stock to flow in the long run. And it's on an adoption curve that, you know, that gold isn't on gold's been around 5000 years fully adopted, right. And then, you know, gold and silver being the two other sound money assets and silver hasn't broken to an all time new high, but I think it will. Gold has, Bitcoin has got up to one and did take out the pre FTX high, but not by a lot. And it's messing around right at that level. But the point is, I think, you know, and the best analyst at following this, and he just had a great interview, which I highly recommend with Michelle McCrory, is Luke Groman. And Luke has kind of outlined how what's going on here is, you know, treasury bonds are just losing their role as the world's reserve asset. And the world is coming to see that the

fiscal situation in the United States is completely and utterly out of control with no attempt to fix it. And that in light of that, if you're in bonds of any duration, you know, you're wrong. And so you've got to get into something that has a chance to adjust for the, you know, on a real basis, give you a return. And, you know, stocks qualify. They're one of the possibilities. And by the way, they've worked for so well for so long that everybody loves stocks. And so people go piling into the stock market. I happen to think they're the poorest choice because they're overvalued. I happen to think that Bitcoin, gold and silver are the best choice because they're all relatively undervalued in terms of their size compared to all the fiat assets in the world. So that's kind of my macro take on where we are right now. Can I ask you a question?

What did you think of or did you see the now infamous Brad Sherman speech? Oh, yeah. That was maybe the most important soundbite where somebody who is clued in, who is part of the Warren Brigade running the economy. Scott, you got to play that clip if you can find it. Yeah, it's a great speech. I mean, basically what he says is, hey, shit, this Bitcoin thing is going to trash our currency. And I actually commented on that. Somebody retweeted that.

I commented. I said, yeah, that's the point. And, you know, Saylor's doing a very nice job. He said we can't get our. He basically said we are incapable of fiscal restraint. This is someone who literally. And by the way, by the way, so did Jerome Powell. Right. Which is if you go back to that 60 Minutes interview, he effectively said, listen, there's only so much we can do on the monetary side.

This fiscal path is unsustainable. You don't usually hear the chairman of the Fed making such an outright negative comment about the treasury. The hubris of that speech, I have never seen anything like it. I mean, the last time I saw something with that much hubris was, I remember in the Iraq war, what was that guy's name? The minister of information. It's unbelievable. It like, you assume that the United States has a God-given right to run the economy of the world, despite not being able to do what you're, I can only imagine what, what people like, what Yellen was thinking, watching that and seeing. We all know that the macro is, is, is wildly out of control. And the Overton window is shifting

to the point where even the people on the inside who don't want to admit to that fact are admitting to that fact. What's interesting to me is how irresponsible they're being by, okay, pal, if you think that, you know, we've got a fiscal problem that's out of control, you know, why are you enabling it?

Do you know what I mean? You know, and why aren't you, well, that's, you know, it's a long road there. I don't want to go down that road with your show. So that's kind of my quick overview on macro. Yeah, Mike, I got to ask you really quick, because Larry had me on the sell button on TLT. Do you agree that you're wrong if you're in bonds right now? Because I know that we kind of share the view that as bad as it is, it's still the best of the bad. It's one of those simple things in trading. You're investing. You're wrong initially, but it's going to be right eventually.

It's just a question of time. And I think it'll be kicking in this year. But I want to talk about key things that are backup. I agree with a lot what Larry and Dave said about gold, silver, and Bitcoin, and T-bonds in that scenario, but I might disagree about the weighting. And the key thing was, let's just talk simple and to follow up what Dave said about timeframe. Simple facts of pattern recognition is the gold, the Bitcoin to gold ratio typically beats gold and has beat gold when gold was on the way up. It led it. Now it's lagging. The Bitcoin to beta ratio typically beat beta on the way up.

Now it's lagging. It's not timeframe. It's just the fastest horse in the race is stopped. Hold on. Hold on. Let him finish, Dave. You got to let me finish this because the the point is pattern recognition, stuff that would show up in a value at risk model and certain from smart quant guys is this trend of the fastest horse in the race has started to break down. I'm just pointing out those facts. Now, maybe it'll catch up, Dave. I know that's your point. But I'm pointing out that could happen. expensive and volatility this low, and then you also have the fastest horse in the race. It's unlike gold. It does trade three times the volatility of beta.

You have to be careful of how you weight that, particularly if it made new highs. So here's one example. Like I said, I met with some of the hot money people who were on the trade and had an issue with the problem with being right as it became overweight in their portfolio. So you have to lighten up just for prudent money management. Now, I get it, all the inflows. So here's one thing the market's going to get wrong. It's way overestimated inflows in ETH ETFs because of what happened with Bitcoin ETFs. So we'll probably get that. But the key thing about the facts here is I just look at silver as much more

like copper. They're high volatility, highly speculative. And then there's gold. And the biggest, deepest pockets on the planet are still buying gold. So this is, I hate to say, I like the rock beating stocks. So I still expect it's going to continue and potentially by the end of this year. It's just that ratio with beta and versus gold. Bitcoin has been underperforming when beta and gold are making new highs. That's not a timeframe. This is pointing out facts of divergent weakness. Yeah, but what timeframe, Mike?

I mean, you know. Exactly. Facts overall. Beginning of Bitcoin. Just look at the ratio of Bitcoin to beta. Bitcoin started in 2009. We get it. You just go back the last few years.

Bitcoin made that versus beta, made the high in 21 and made another high again. And now it's lower, yet beta keeps going higher. That's the problem. I dislike when it's a Bitcoin to gold. Bitcoin beta ratio was great. It led things. It learned the reputation of the fastest horse in the race.

And just lately, you have to admit, it hasn't been the fastest horse in the race. The first quarter, it was up 61%. Gold was up 12%. So that's still pretty damn fast. Exactly. You're picking points in time. I'm talking about the overall trend. Just look at that ratio of the Bitcoin to gold ratio over time.

And then so I also got to point out it's a cracker boom. We've had a cracker boom on a one-year basis. S&P 500 total return is 30%. For the Fed to consider easing an environment with that happening, the market cap at double GDP, inflation above their targets is just silly. Now the whole world of speculative assets is priced for the Fed easing. Number one is Bitcoin. It's completely survived on massive liquidity in the system, the Fed easing. And right now I don't think it's going to get it until beta goes down, which means it's probably lead Bitcoin. Actually, Bitcoin might lead it down.

I have to say really quickly. I mean, I just quickly was trying to make the chart so I could look. Mike, I know you have it. This is Bitcoin divided by XAU. So divided by gold. I mean, you know, to ignore this and only focus in on this, Mike, seems a little bit difficult. And anyone who charts, it just looks like a bull flag.

I mean, look, the Bitcoin gold ratio over the last year bitcoin is crushing look at that bitcoin goal ratio from the beginning bitcoin is crushing it where bitcoin doesn't look good is very specific in 2021 bitcoin got ahead of itself unquestionably ahead of itself and then we had this huge crisis in confidence that happened from a series of events in the entire crypto sphere where for selling of all the major holders of Bitcoin, not to pick up Scott,

but how much Bitcoin effectively did get, you know, of yours that you thought was at Voyager ended up getting sold. You know, it's like you had this enormous demand event that took Bitcoin back down, and it's only just recovering now from where we were from the 2022 event. Larry said something that's very... You like Larry or Lawrence? Yeah, Larry's fine. Yeah, please.

Larry said something that's extraordinarily important. It's about adoption. And you've heard me, Larry, I say this all the time, that Bitcoin trades like an option on its own adoption. And the fact is that when you look at it that way, the last year is more relevant than since the 2021 high. But what you're saying, Mike, your reasoning is exactly correct and why it has to chew through resistance. Because what you're pointing out is the cause of resistance from people who have it. The issue with Bitcoin is will there be new money coming in, yes or no? If the answer is yes, it will overwhelm that and go to price discovery.

If the answer is no, you will be right. End of story. So it's probably good I correct an error right away. What you showed, Scott, was the wrong chart. XAU index is not gold. That's the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Equity Index. It's the wrong one. So I'll point out the fact of gold. How should I chart it? Sorry, tell me. I'll show you right now. I'm sharing the screen, but you can chart it. Don't use XAUs.

You have to use gold. That's the Philadelphia Stock Index. So here is ratio. It peaked here, and I'm just saying lower highs. Same thing versus, oh, it's right here. I have this one on beta. Beta making new highs, lower highs in Bitcoin and gold. You can argue the facts all you want.

I don't care. I hope you're right. I hope you win the debate. I'm talking about what's happening in markets. It's showing, as my job as a strategist, it's showing divergent weakness and the fastest horse in the race. That's the problem. This is what you show in the Philadelphia Gold Index. This XAU index is not the same as gold. In fact, it's a major underperformer. It's the same as gold. In fact, it's a major underperformer. But now let me show you a key thing. Part of that is the fact that the Philadelphia stock index, XAU, gold and silver index is underperforming gold and environment gold making record high shows you the problem.

What happens when beta goes down? And beta has been going up in the vet and that shows you the equities are a problem. Yeah, I agree with that that but it's the same chart the fact is bitcoin got to way ahead of itself in 2021 relative to if you pull up the chart of the bitcoin hash rate the network growth yeah and you overlay that on the bitcoin price which is very easy to do on you know it's not gonna turn up for a minute though because it's a useful chart. I mean, I don't know the S&Ps in there too. You know, the, the, the interesting thing to me about that chart is, I mean, that's a very bullish chart, you know, I mean, sure.

We've got a flag and it's pulled back, but that's because gold broke out. I mean, you know, gold broke out in early March and Bitcoin leveled off after one hell of a run. And, you know, this is all I mean, I look at that chart and I know that we're going to be making new highs in that chart. So six months. Let's look at this. It looks like a bull flag. But this is a ratio. Here's a lower high, a lower high, yet beta is going higher. That's just a fact of underperformance.

So the fastest horse in the race, I'm pointing out, I agree. It's still not bearish Bitcoin. I'm just pointing out is when we do get the beta backup, you should probably expect gold to some degree, silver to a larger degree and Bitcoin to a much larger degree to outperform stocks, then the Bitcoin gold ratio chart that looks like a bull flag is particularly important. But I will point out that if you adjust the Bitcoin price by the Bitcoin network, then it gives you a hell of a lot more information as to what's actually happening, because that talks about adoption. The fact is, is we've recovered back to the trend line post halving already. And that's very, very relevant. You know, you know, it's if you had, you know, Mike Alfred on, he would go talk about the Bitcoin miners. But the simple fact is that all the fundamental metrics of Bitcoin on adoption metrics are just unaffected by all of this.

And that matters. That will ultimately matter that as new demand comes in, because it means supply isn't going to sell at these prices. Yeah. Larry, you look like you got something to say. No, not really. Mike's point that beta is going higher.

To me, that's just a small squiggle. In fact, the stock market's up now. Look, the stock market's going to go up from now until the election. They've got it wired and rigged, is my sense. Bitcoin is in a correction or a flat, a high-level correction

in the 60-70 range. And it's going to break through 73 and squirt to 90. And everybody's going to be saying, how the hell did I miss that? So where's your stop? I have to ask that. Where's my stop?

As an ex-trader, it's great to say that if you have a position on, that's your target. Where's the stop? Yeah. Probably, I don't know. Where's the stop? Yeah, probably. I don't know. There was one I was fucking around with the other day.

I don't have a chart right in front of me, but it's probably around 58 or 60, somewhere in there. Seems like a good low level. Yeah. Go ahead, Dave. No, I was just going to say the one thing that i i constantly say to all the viewers is be very very careful with leverage yeah this weekend we saw and we see now even you know i won't call it the return because it's not really true but you know the inverse perpetuals and the perpetual swaps are just starting to show funding rates on occasion. Right now they're back down

to normal, but they were just peaking up to where there was some long speculation. And that was enough to see a move from 68 to over 70. And then it came right back down and left. I mean, not huge fireworks or anything major for a weekend, but keep in mind what happened last week is a very big deal. Now, it's a bigger deal to companies like mine, because what everyone needs to understand, and there's a lot of plumbing and stuff that goes on behind the scenes. If you look at the gold market, one of the reasons that people believe, and I don't necessarily ascribe to this, people believe that gold has been a manipulated market for years, is people believe that the use of paper derivatives and gold trading, because all the big money center banks, and there have been billions in fines on this,

so it's not like I'm making this up, and we know it's true, have manipulated the price of gold because they can do off-balance sheet derivatives, They can use futures, which don't require cash delivery, et cetera. And there's a lot of fear. Well, what happens if that happens in the Bitcoin market? Well, we'll push the fear off to the side. The initial effect of that was a significant rally in gold, which we saw back a couple of decades ago. And the SEC, what no one really wants to admit, but the SEC has had a policy, started with Clayton under Trump, interestingly enough, because he basically was afraid of it. He's obviously changed his personal tune now, as has Trump, and has continued under Gensler, where no Wall Street firms are allowed to offer Bitcoin trading to their clients. Now, consider how

ridiculous that is, because every Wall Street firm can offer copper, they can offer gold, they can offer palladium, they can offer pet rocks. Nobody cares. They've never been stopped by trading to trading a commodity before. But the SEC has told FINRA do not grant what's called a non-securities trading permission under the FINRA charter. They have stopped that. Now, how do we know that this is still true? We know it's true because when the SEC approved the Bitcoin ETF, because the courts forced them, they made it settle in kind. They made it settle cash and not in kind. Well, that sounds very obscure, but the reason they did that was because the authorized participants, Morgan Stanley and

Goldman Sachs, went to the SEC and said, wait a minute, if you let in-kind settlement, we will not be able to participate, and that's unfair, and we will sue your asses. We know that this is true because I know some of the people who talked to them about it. So the SEC said, yep, you're right, you're going to have to do cash settlement. Now, this caused all sorts of interesting market structure things with why futures traded the way they did and other stuff. But right, you're going to have to do cash settlement. Now, this caused all sorts of interesting market structure things with why futures traded the way they did and other stuff. But what's really important here is listen to what I just said. Most of Wall Street is not allowed to offer trading in Bitcoin to their customers. They can only do so via the ETF. They can't offer any

crypto. What do you think happens if FIT21 ends up getting anywhere near true? CME wants to spot Bitcoin, by the way. That was an announcement last week. Who did? CME. Right. So the simple fact is what you will see is all of Wall Street being able to offer crypto to its clients. That's the end game here. Now, as far as I can tell, that's one of these, this is like the aha moment. This is like, you know, I don't know which aha moment you want to look at in the past, but at some point, we're going to look back and say, how the hell didn't we see this? Because that opens up an enormous amount of demand and there just isn't the supply.

Now, I'm not talking about meme coins here. I'm talking about Bitcoin and Ethereum and layer ones that are actually decentralized and have use cases, etc. But this is a big deal. Larry, do you believe in any of that? Okay, go ahead, Mike. Just one thing from what Dave said is I do enjoy this manipulation of gold speculation since I've been in that business. The only people who ever, ever really say it are people of a vested interest in the price of going up. But to me, it makes completely zero sense to spend that kind of money on a P&L for anybody to manipulate the price of gold. You think things are off balance sheet, but I've never seen the actual evidence.

But I've always heard the speculation for people who have a vested interest in the rock going up. It's just kind of silly. Mike, you're wrong. There's a ton of evidence. The evidence is overwhelming and it's multi-decade. You have to go to gata.org. You have to look at the volumes that were traded in 2013 when Robert Rubin started a speculative attack on gold and the volumes that were traded through the Cayman Islands. I mean, let's face it, you know, you're being naive if you don't think that the central

banks and the central governments of the world have a very strong vested interest in demonetizing gold. I mean, this was Carville saying, you know, you mean to tell me that the fucking bond market is going to determine whether we get reelected? I want to come back as the bond market. And Rubin said, don't worry about it. We got it solved. And Barsky and Summers had written their Gibson's paradox paper. And Rubin was an ex-Erin and company gold trader. And he set up the mechanism by which they created enormous paper gold. And they ran a speculative attack on gold in 2011 through 2013 when it was running away. The evidence on that is absolutely fucking overwhelming. There's no doubt about it. Now, gold had gotten ahead of itself, so they ran it at a

time that it made sense to do so. But the fact of the matter is that the central banks and the governments of the world have a vested interest in keeping their system stable, which means keeping their currency money good, which means not having people believe in gold. I mean, you know, another perfect example of the evidence of manipulation is that Volcker in his memoir said, you know, one of the big mistakes we made during the 70s was not manipulating the gold price more, right? More, implying they were already doing it. So, you know, the non-manipulation crowd is just, they're completely fucking wrong. And as you point out, Morgan Stanley, I mean, Goldman Sachs and others have paid enormous fines for obvious spoofing and manipulation. So, you know, just a data point that I think is helpful to understand is that, you know, gold used to be the basis of the monetary system.

And there was a time in the 60s and 70s when you could take the U.S. money supply outstanding in the broad measure and divide by 261 million ounces that we allegedly hold. And you could come up with a $35 reference price. And, of course, it traded through that price in the 60s as we began to run deficits. And of course, it got so bad that Nixon cut the tie at 71. But if you were to do that same mathematical calculation today, and Brent Johnson in Santiago has done it. It's a nice piece of work that he's put out. Gold would be at $80,000 an ounce. That's how much fiat money we've created. And, you know,

frankly, the politicians, they love it. They love the fact that gold has allowed them to run an enormous Keynesian experiment, which is now in the process of blowing up. And, you know, it's, it's, it's, there's great karma here because, you know, they're going to be the ones who are going to get blamed when the, when the currency blamed when the currency ultimately becomes worthless, which I think it will. Mike, get your response. Because I followed you on X, Larry. I was very well aware that you could speak to that more eloquently than me. So that was my attempt to – that was me being a setter.

Yeah, right. Yeah, you lobbed us. Let's talk about gold manipulation. Yeah, Mike. I took one of this articles, which was not that long ago. Yeah, this wasbed it. Let's talk about gold manipulation. Yeah, I know a lot about this. I know a lot about this. It's not that long ago. Yeah, this was just last year. So former JP Morgan and precious metals traders. These guys were just punters, though.

I mean, they were spoofing and doing this. Oh, no, it's much more nefarious. But the key point out of all of that is that $80,000 number. Right. Right? So effectively, gold was a hundred percent of monetary aggregates. It's now 8% of monetary aggregates and Bitcoin is 0.8% of monetary aggregates. Correct. And the people in the, in the Bitcoin space who think Bitcoin is going to be

Nirvana. I mean, Michael Saylor will tell you that Bitcoin should be replaced gold as a hundred percent of monetary aggregates in a new system. And while I haven't seen the movie, I've seen the trailer. I think for that to happen at any point soon, we're looking at a Mad Max scenario. So assuming there's electricity. So I tend to be less, I think that it can happen gradually if we end up in a Star Trek like credit system. But the truth of the matter is, it's still on the margin. Everything we're looking at now are squiggles. And that's the point. I mean, look, I still own gold.

I don't own a lot of gold. I own more silver than I own gold. And I own more Bitcoin than I own both. Right. You know, it's just I've had this. I'm in the exact same place, Dave. A lot of Bitcoin, a medium amount of silver and some gold. Yeah, that's where I've been. It's fine. I don't think about it, right? I spend what I got to spend

and that's where my savings are. I don't know what will happen in the next week or two. I do think that I adjusted my year end, my next year target to be basically, I know this sounds hyperbolic, I'm sorry, it'll probably play well in clickbait, but I believe 240. And I believe 240 because I think that we're going to 4x from here, because I think that is, and I may be underestimating that, that is the natural course of where a cycle high is relative to the network and relative to where that is. I think that that is where gravity will set in. And will there be enormous amounts of volatility along the way? Sure. Is it likely to fall back significantly after that as vested interests want to push it whichever way they want to push it? Probably. But that's kind of where my head is at.

And 240k is my target for the last cycle, if you want to know how not hyperbolic I believe you are there. Yeah, well, I mean, I'm doing it based on just simple math. Right. But the point is, is that all the stars are aligning for it. I mean, the federal what Sherman was talking about was they're they are literally attributing something that is one-tenth the size of something that Greenspan has basically said many times and Bernanke has said it, that they don't really care about the gold price at these levels. And what Larry did was tell you why. If gold was over $10,000 and on its way towards where it could start looking like that, yeah, they probably would start caring. But at less than 3,000, I don't think they give a crap. And at Bitcoin less than half a million, I don't think they give a crap for exactly that. Yeah, I suspect they're worried about Bitcoin. I mean, Sherman is aware of it. Others are aware

of it. It's becoming a monetary replacement. They see that, and that's got to concern them. But some of them aren't smart enough to get it. I mean, I think the other thing that I use when I'm talking to potential investors in our fund and others is just to understand that there's a real simple thesis going on here, guys. I mean, there's a $130 trillion worldwide bond market. There's a $150 trillion worldwide stock market. So those are with a T, right? The current size of the entire worldwide gold market is 14T. And by the way, probably half

of that's not easily accessible. It's either in a museum where it's never going to get melted down, or it's around a woman's neck in India where eventually maybe they'll sell it, but they're not going to sell it easily. So the tradable gold market's probably, you know, three or four T, you know, total Bitcoin market is 1.4 T and certainly not all of that is for sale, you know. And so, you know, when you're considering that, you know, total worldwide financial assets are in the 400 plus trillion, and this isn't including art and real estate and a lot of other things. I'm just talking about easily tradable financial shit. You know, it's three or 400 trillion and tradable gold is 4 trillion

and tradable Bitcoin is 1.4 trillion. It doesn't take a lot of the people who hold the 400 trillion shit saying, you know, these governments are really fucking up. I mean, this is just not holding its value. I mean, the price of everything keeps going up relentlessly. And unless I was in the mag seven, my stocks didn't keep up. And goddamn, I need something that the government can't print. What are my choices? Well, real

estate, but you can't move it and they tax it. Huh? What are my financial choices? Gold, silver, Bitcoin. That's it. Mike, I want to give you just a quick chance to respond, and then I want to pivot to Ethereum for the last bit here and kind of talk about the context of that. So, Lawrence, repeat what you said before. I'll repeat what I said before. I agree. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, and long bonds in that space. It's a question of the waiting. The key problem I like to point out is we've had only one, since the bull market in equity started in 2009,

we've had that major correction was 25% in the S&P 500 just as the Fed started tightening. In 2022, Bitcoin dropped 80%. That's what I'm pointing out. It's probably going to happen again. We have to get over that hump of people telling me that this is an asset that's going to have a negative delta to the stock market. And still, it's a positive delta, positive beta. So I want to see the proof. So like I wrote easier, we've only had one 5% correction in the stock market since the bottom, and Bitcoin dropped about 15%. Okay, it's just those, we have to get over that. And people realize that they own the fastest horse in a race. It's a high Okay. It's just those, we have to get over that. And people realize that they own the fastest horse in a race. It's a high volatility. It's very expensive. And like you said, yeah,

it's going to go 73. Well, it just did. It went to 73 and we had that new high. I just pointed out the facts yet. Now I'm just putting out the facts of, okay, well, the high price cure is kicking in the stock market. That is every time it goes up, inflation stays high. And everybody who tells me the Fed's going to ease, we all know that lesson. It's been almost three years now we've been told the Fed's going to ease in one year, and they're not. And they won't. And that, to me, is a liquidity pump. And just let me see the proof.

I want to see the proof when I can start writing about, hey, stocks are going down, and Bitcoin's on a volatile, adjusted basis. It's not going down as much. Not just down, but not just down as much. I have a quick question for you, though. You said bonds. I mean, you said gold, silver, Bitcoin. Long bonds. Long bonds?

You believe in long bonds? Yeah, and I definitely expected the skepticism. I hope they hear it. I've heard it in my almost 40 years in this business. Every time yields go up and there's a bigger deficit, everybody tells me bonds are supposed to fail. Then I look at the rest of the world's bond markets, and it's showing severe deflationary

forces. So look at China, 2.3%. Look at Japan, 0.8%. Let's look at Germany, 2.4%, maybe 3%. Greece, 3.4%. So from when people tell me U.S. long bond yields are going to jump, I say, OK, that's fine, but that's a global depression kicking in, the dollar crushing things, and that's really bad, and that's going to crush equity. So I look at it as a normal situation is going to happen, and then, of course, there's a government backstabbing the bond market.

If there's any problem with yields, we know what happens. The government buys it. Well, I agree with that. I definitely agree with that. I definitely agree with that. I just don't see how there's a bull case for bonds under any scenario, because I think that without debasement, which the government absolutely has to do to keep the system running, you know, the things collapse. And therefore, on a real basis, I mean, as Groman says, the bond market is the sucker at the card table. I mean, those guys are going to get, I mean, there's no worse investment right now, in my opinion, than any fixed income with any sort of duration. I mean, I think those people are going to get absolutely annihilated because, in my view, we haven't talked about this from a macro point of view.

I think we're looking at an inflationary holocaust here as we really go. From a commodity standpoint, I see the opposite. Let's look at crude oil right now. The price on the screen was first traded in 2007. Corn price was first traded in 1996. From a commodity standpoint, I see nothing but deflationary recessionary forces kicking in. Let me finish. I pointed out bond yields in China, second largest company. Deflationary forces, BYD is doing to Tesla what Huawei is doing to Apple. The deflationary forces out of China are just kicking in.

So that's why I kind of kick in with the bond market scenario. But in terms of commodities, we have in this country, we have recessionary declining trends for diesel, recessionary declining trends for unleaded gas, corrugated boxes. And then, of course, we've got the inverted curve, all that stuff that's not going to matter until the stock market goes down and makes people realize they're going to matter but from my standpoint commodities i see severe deflationary forces with the exception of one major commodity we had a little spurt in copper but looks like that was just futures driven and potentially going to roll back over sure and that's and that's in the last three months but what what happens when something breaks and the fed decides to inject another $10 trillion into the economy like last time around. At that point in time, the bonds get destroyed just like they did on the last

cycle. The one thing that breaks is the U.S. stock market, the most expensive in our lifetimes. That's the only thing that's going to cause the Fed to flip. And you have to have that lower tide before they turn on the switch. Or unemployment, either one. I mean, yeah. Well, they're all kind of related. Or the bond market breaks. I mean, it's entirely possible. I mean, we saw it almost break last fall and they came out and jawboned it down

when it went through five. Something's going to break and then they're going to print massively and then we're going to get the next wave of inflation and it's going to be worse than the last one. We're going to go into the teens. Okay, so you're making assumptions. That's right. I'm just pointing out the facts of

you have to have those iterations. And here's one thing that's changed in our lifetimes is the inflation we got from too much liquidity. We've learned that lesson, lessons of Jeff Booth. Americans are, not Americans, humans are about error correction. So next time we start having downward trajectories in risk assets, which I didn't say if, and the Fed has pressure to ease, which we've always had, I think that pressure is going to be less, is more tilted towards you can't ease because the last time you eased, you created all this inflation that's got us into this mess in the first place. Yeah. And so they're going to let the economy collapse and we're going to have something like the Great Depression? Because that's the alternative. No, my point is- If they don't pay me aggressively, the entire economy is going to have something like the Great Depression? Because that's the alternative. If they don't pay money

aggressively, the entire economy is going to collapse, full stop. Even guys like Richard Simmons, even the leading MMT guys will confess to that. There's no way. They've got a machine where they have to print, Mike.

I didn't say that. I'm bullish gold. Long-term bullish Bitcoin and silver. I i agree with you just point out how the cycles typically work race went up on the elevator and they're more likely to go down than the escalator to be pulled lower by risk gases going lower rather than being preemptive this is my favorite my best hard to get both yeah like over here rates but what really matters is liquidity. That's all I'll say. I think you're right. I think they learned their lesson. I don't think Zerk is going to happen again. I don't think Zerk-

Something seriously breaks. We do have to talk about Ethereum quickly though, because in the context of what happened last week, I think that was the biggest shocker. We keep calling Bitcoin the fastest horse in the race. A lot of people who believe Ethereum can become the fastest horse in the race now, which by the way, outside of Trump and Fit21 and all the progress, that's what happens in every single cycle, at least for a part of it, right? Bitcoin tops, it consolidates, Ethereum runs, then trickles down into memes, which have gotten ahead of that cycle, and then back to Bitcoin, rinse and repeat until the cycle's over. So, A, Mike, I tend to agree with you that the Ethereum spot ETF will not attract rapid inflows like Bitcoin. So comparing it to the Bitcoin spot ETF, I think it's probably dangerous territory to tread on because we had a year of education on Bitcoin,

which was already a major brand name ahead of those approvals. And this happened in 48 hours when nobody thought it was going to happen. So I just don't see who's going to allocate to this, at least initially. We also, as I'm looking at it on the screen right now, we saw obviously the GBTC unlock the at least temporary selling pressure for the first few weeks and saw Bitcoin dropping. Well, we have ETH here with the discount completely, I would imagine, going to close at the moment that these start trading. And that's still $11 billion of theoretical sales pressure on the Ethereum market and the spot market that's going to unlock. So I think maybe we see that retracement first and then Ethereum run. But Dave, you were kind of nodding when I called it maybe the fastest horse in the race.

Yeah, look, so I lied before when I said my holdings were Bitcoin, gold and silver. It's Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, gold and silver. So and with a couple of meme coins sprinkled in, you know, at the bottom of that, just just for screwing around. But I won't I won't talk about that. But look, Ethereum is interesting because, you know, in the crypto world, it's incredibly widely held and used and people understand it. Outside the crypto world, nobody has a clue what it is. I mean, my wife had heard of Bitcoin, you know, and her answer was, what's Ethereum? What is that? And I was in an RIA convention last week. I asked a hundred of them and, you know, 50 had even heard that there was a Bitcoin spot ETF and 98

had never even heard of Ethereum. There will be. It is a big deal. I will be stunned if we don't test the high on the Bitcoin Ether, the Ether Bitcoin ratio, which right now is sitting at 0.057. The high is like recent high is 0.062. So there's probably another 5% or so to run. Keep in mind, it was trading at 0.045 when you were banging the drum to buy Ethereum before this thing happened. I had three guests come on that week. I had three guests come on that week,

separate shows and told me they had finally sold all their Ethereum they'd been holding for years. There's your, there's your closing your puts, Larry. There's a lot of technical crap going on. But the important thing to understand about Ethereum is the sales case, to explain it to investors, relies upon technology and network effects, which is a totally different sales cycle, a totally different type of investor. And it's one that bodes well for the broad crypto ecosystem as opposed to just for Ethereum as an asset. Whereas the case to

explain Bitcoin to investors has literally no additional, you know, there's nothing that helps anything else in crypto. I mean, yeah, money comes in, but the same investor who buys Bitcoin because of what Larry was saying before isn't buying anything else in crypto because it's not relevant. It's not a store of value. It's not something that was created by somebody who doesn't exist anymore. It's not an organic network that has no issuers. You know, we're going to a conference in Austin run by consensus. Right. You know, it's like it's what is that? Well, it's celebrating, you know, it's Coindesk and it's and it's the Ethereum Foundation. Right. Is what it's named for. So, I mean, there are humans involved in that, just like there are humans involved in Apple and in Google. And I think that it matters. And so, yeah, your your long term money flows.

It's extremely bullish, but I think the short term will get overheated. And I think that will be a tradable correction when it does finally go live. Just looking at Bitstamp, Ethereum Bitcoin pair in 2018, February, you guys remember, obviously, Bitcoin topped in 17. And then Ethereum went on a literally epic insane run. It traded at 0.123. So we're still below 50% off the highs of that Ethereum Bitcoin pair. So that's a lot of juice to squeeze if the Ethereum Bitcoin pair somehow doubles back to the highs and you get appreciation in Bitcoin on the side, right? So that's the true bull case for Ethereum if you believe that it will happen. And I can't believe what just did happen is that we got to 10 o'clock.

And so Larry, you'll find that we usually have to cut this off. We sometimes don't even talk about the actual title that we put up top because we start rambling and we wish we could go on for hours, but we would love to have you back, man. That was awesome. I really appreciate and respect both your guests and you, and I'm

happy to weigh in. Sorry, you get me going on gold manipulation and I get a little... That was a great rant. I really appreciate that rant. I've been living it since 2008, and I'm way, way, way down the rabbit hole. I mean... The internet is forever, Larry.

I knew it, and I thought it was the perfect time to do that. Yeah. I mean, there is a site that documents this. It's www.gata.org. Bill Murphy and Chris Powell have done just extensive work and really supporting the case that, you know, the central banks have a vested interest in protecting fiat currency and therefore they manipulate gold full stop. There's so much evidence, it's overwhelming.

Well, it makes a hell of a lot of sense. Thank you, man. We'd love to have you. We're still going to keep James, I think, unless the other two vote him off. I can't, you know. He's much better than me. Bring him back as a pinch hitter from time to time.

I'm happy to do it. Absolutely. And I would love to do, I think we've talked about in the past, a one-on-one podcast conversation. Happy to do that too. And dig into all of that a little deeper as well. Sure, love to do, I think we've talked about in the past, a one-on-one podcast conversation. Happy to do that too. And dig into all of that a little deeper as well. I think that would be awesome.

Sure, happy to do that too. All right, everybody. We'll see you on Spaces, of course, in 15 minutes. Dave, I'll see you on, for some barbecue maybe, later this afternoon or evening or sometime this week. I have something that says barbecue on my calendar. I have no idea who it's with or where it is. It ain't me, but I'm showing up.

All right, guys. Thank you. I'll be be back tomorrow 9 a.m eastern standard time bye guys let's go