The Wolf Of All Streets - Worst Case Scenario For Markets With Michael Gayed

Episode Date: March 8, 2023

►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/ What's going on with the markets? Join me and my special guest today to get access to some market insights. https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-a-gayed-cfa/ ►►BITGET GET UP TO A $8,000 BONUS IN USDT AND GET MASSIVE DISCOUNTS ON TRADING FEES! 👉 https://thewolfofallstreets.info/bitget ►►NORD VPN GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/ Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottmelker Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Markets seem to be once again teetering on the edge because Jerome Powell decided to open his mouth. And then 17 other Fed governors decided to open their mouths and then they all conflicted and then they all shared the data. But then the data was different for each of them because they calculated different. Yes, it's a dog and pony show coming from the Fed, but it determines the short-term movement of markets. Now we are starting to see 50-bip rate hikes priced back in once again when everybody was expecting 0.25, but I'm sure that that will change on a dime because somebody will say something that the market either loves or hates by tomorrow. How, how, how do we parse all of this data, all of these speeches, and how do we determine what's likely to come and what the best and worst case scenarios are for markets? Well,

as usual, I like to bring on someone a hell of a lot smarter than me to do that job. And that today is Michael Guyon. You guys don't want to miss this. Let's go. Let's go. get started, please subscribe to the channel and slap your Shiba Inu oven mitt right on that like button. I found it in the drawer. It wasn't out. Kind of forgot about it. And then my kid came running in and was like, what's with the ramen dough? My kids don't know yet. They don't have the educational level. That's bad parenting by me for them not to understand the importance of Shiba Inu and Doge, especially eating ramen on an oven mitt. But that's not what you came here before. You came here to hear about doom and gloom and the end of markets and how we're all going to die and everything is going to zero. Maybe, maybe not. I have my own perspective, which we will share. And actually, I shared quite a lot of it on today's

guest's Twitter spaces last week. So fun that we get to sort of reciprocate and flip. And I get to ask him the questions today. Of course, I have. We're going to add him now. Michael, how are you, buddy? I'm a little jealous you got that Shiba Inu oven mitt. And by the way, I think isn't the end of the world supposed to be good for Shiba? I think that was kind of- Oh, that's right. That's right. Doge goes up when the world ends because it's an important, highly deflationary hedge against a world collapse. Everybody knows that ending.

It's hilarious. So you've got, that's right. It'll be funny. And you'll have dog coins to buy bread with somewhere. I'm looking at things. Yeah. It's a CFA curriculum type stuff right here,

folks. Yeah. I got this at a Epcot, actually, in Japan at Disney. In the Japan section, I also have a shirt that my wife bought me from there that is a doge, a Shiba Inu surfing on the famous Japanese wave. Pretty awesome. Your wife knows you very well. Your wife knows you very well.

She does. She knows what's important and what I need to remain happy. So listen, nobody wants to talk about that except for, of course, me and maybe you. Let's talk about markets. So yesterday, we saw a little shock, right? Or over the past, I would say even over the past week, but we've seen a bit of a shock with now an increased chance of higher rate hikes, a higher effective rate, Fed rate at the end and markets no likey. So what do you what do you make of what's happening right now? Well, first of all, I wish every single Fed official would shut the fuck up because it's not helping confidence when they keep on basically day trading monetary policy with their words.

But, you know, it is a weird thing. I put a tweet out a little bit earlier this morning because it's a little bit maddening to me. So Powell basically says the terminal rate is going to be higher. Rates have to keep rising because of recent inflation. It's like, did we forget that inflation lags? Everything lags. Right. And also, I mean their their previous rounds of tightening

are lagging right it's like whatever inflation we're seeing today is based on rates from many many many months ago so it's like this is like either either i don't believe he's stupid right i don't know if he's trying to play the market but it is a strange dynamic that people like oh you know because of recent inflation they got to keep on hiking rates like no not at all we have not seen the effects of already how high these rates are. We're not going to see until later this year. So look, I do think a lot of this, I'd say it really is noise, right? It's a lot of movement back and forth. Okay. So the Dow gave up its gains for the year. The media made it out to be like, oh, the market's crashed because Powell opened his mouth. Small caps were down 1% yesterday. It's like, let's put

things into perspective. Everyone's always looking to the Fed for answers. The reality is the Fed doesn't know what to do either, right? But we do know that at least based on market internals, things are not all that doom and gloom in the short term. Small caps holding up fairly well. By the way, the long end of the treasury side of things is not believing the idea that inflation will keep rising because the yield curve keeps on getting more and more inverted. So we're in this kind of silly season of people latching on to words that at the end of the day don't mean anything. Yeah, I mean, the yield curve continues to further invert. I mean, it's starting to look like historical levels, right? And it's getting extremely aggressive. Do you still think that that's the same signal that it's been in the past for upcoming recessions? Interestingly, I had Campbell Harvey on Monday, and he's the guy who

first noticed the relationship between the inverse yield curve and, of course, incoming recessions. That signal, that indicator has worked eight of eight times. But he came on a Monday and said, I know it's my model, but I don't think so this time. So he doesn't think it's coming. Yeah, no, this is actually a really important thing for people to consider. There's always false signals, right? Just because it's raining doesn't mean you'll crash. Just because it's sunny doesn't mean you won't.

So, yes, yield curve is a very good indicator of recessions. But you can have a recession without a yield curve inversion. You can have a yield curve inversion where there's no recession. It's always about probabilities and odds. But there's a bigger thing here, which is that the question is, does it really matter from a trading perspective? It's like everyone's talking about a recession. Okay, fine. Since June of last year, since October of last year, markets are a lot higher as backed off of the recession call, right? I mean, or at least very few people have.

So my goal, this is interesting from a macro perspective, recession, no recession. Is it going to be this year, not this year? At the end of the day, it's all a price movement and intermarket behavior. And for now, I keep going back to, look, I think March is going to be a volatile month, which is why I kept on tweeting March in the lead up to March and February. Not that you're going to have a credit event this month, but I still think there's a lot of bearishness out there. I think there's a lot of people that are really concerned that

higher rates means the stock market has to collapse. And again, historically, it's just not true. And historically, rates aren't that high. No, not at all. Debt is high, right? So now look, there is a refinancing crisis that could be coming next year, right? I keep going back to this is why I'm saying I think we're in this kind of melt-up kind of environment this year. You have a pause this month with high volatility. It's funny, right, because people are seemingly not understanding the whole melt-up argument is also predicated on the idea that we're in the pre-election year, which is historically the strongest year in the presidential cycle for the stock market. And we already had a horrible year last year. People are fighting the last war on these narratives. Again, not to say you can't have big declines, but the idea that you're going

to have a nasty bear market, the odds just don't favor it this year. But there is a credit event, I think, out there. The Fed must be cognizant of that, right? Because you have all these loans are going to roll over in 2024, 2025, and they're going to roll over to higher rates. The Fed must know that, must see that. So Powell can talk tough all he wants. When it comes down to it, if there's going to be a real problem in the debt market, you better believe he's going to lower rates faster than anybody thinks. I mean, we've seen the Fed do this in the past. It's not like some crazy prediction. They just did it in 2018, 2019, right? I mean, we had this mini bear market right at the end Reserve for booms and for busts. I mean, this is the reality. I keep using this line, and I really do believe this, and the data bears it out.

The Fed doesn't own the bond market. The Fed only controls the short end of rates. The bond market owns the Fed, which is why the bond market will tell you when the pivot started before the Fed has actually pivoted. And by the way, the bond market will pivot when a crisis is unfolding, when credit spreads widen, when you have real high volatility, real risk off, unlike the kind of garbage of last year. But again, keep in mind, with all this said, there's a lot of really weird behavior also going on in markets. I mean, the fact that credit spreads keep on tightening to all time historic relative spreads is amazing in the context of all of this debt in the context of these higher rates. So something is off. Right. And this is what markets tend to do. They tend to only sync up when everyone's in agreement. And by the time everybody's in agreement, it's too late to make money off of it.

Yeah. When you talk about feds giving us the signal bonds bonds, excuse me, giving us, my brain is clearly pivoting. You're talking about Shiba. But when you say bonds will sort of give us the signal, is that the yield curve becoming uninverted? I don't know if you know, it's like Top Gun, we were inverted. Or is it just dropping below a particular rate? I mean, 10 years are now back below 4%. That excites a lot of people. The fact that we've been close to 4% terrifies a lot of people.

So to you, what does it mean when the bond market will give us the signal? The only part of the bond market that matters in the context of trading and risk management is junk debt. It's credit spreads, right? It's the idea that suddenly market participants say, I need to get compensated more for the possibility of this highly leveraged issuer going broke, going bankrupt. It's the increase in that default yield part, right, of the equation. And that's what I'm saying. That's where spreads blow out, right? It's not really about the yield curve. The yield curve only

matters to the extent that it means that there's an expectation that companies will no longer survive. You would see that in investors demanding more yield for the higher risk of bankruptcy. You have not seen that yet. That's why all of this doom and gloom, if it ends up being true, could be very, very early. And as I always say, path matters more than prediction. It's not about it happening. It's about the sequence with which it happens. I have a comment here from someone in the audience. Real problem in debt market. We're 32 trillion in debt. How will we ever pay that off? And who are we in debt to? First of all, we likely will never pay it off. Although you can argue we somewhat are paying

off of the backs of the very poor with inflation. I mean, you know, this is it's like this is what they wanted. This folks, they wanted inflation. The problem, of course, is that, you know, is the inflation enough to counter new spending? Right. Which would then from a net real perspective, keep on increasing that. But it's not just the U.S. though, right? I mean, you got 300 trillion dollars of global debt. We're all owing it to each other. So we all know it's a Ponzi. We all want it to get

resolved. I'd venture to bet though that you don't want it to be resolved in your lifetime because it's going to be painful as fuck if that happens. So I mean, speaking of sort of the prediction of a melt up this year, I tend to agree, right? I don't think this year is going to be as bad as people think. I've also thought that this month and the coming months will just be choppy as hell and really hard if you're a trader. What happens after the melt-up?

Does that mean the bottom is in, or does that mean that we're in a massive bull trap of epic proportions and we see new lows? Because 2024 ramping up to the election should also do relatively well. Yeah, Yeah. Okay. So I do think that it is possible we see nominal, nominal new highs in the major averages, meaning not after inflation. After inflation, you probably are not going to see the new highs, I think, for a while, but I could unequivocally be wrong on that. If I'm right that there's a credit event out there,

then you have a melt-up and they have a meltdown, right? Because every single major crisis is inherently a refinancing crisis, right? Which means the Fed has lower rates, spreads widen, and suddenly have high volatility, return of the flight to safety trade, which is really what, you know, where my funds hopefully can shine again, unlike what happened last year, right? In terms of using treasuries as the defensive risk off safe haven. And I keep going back to this point. It's like bear markets make fools of bulls and bears. People get stuck on these terms like melt up. They think it's like, you know, that means the S&P is going to 6,000. No, no, no. Melt up is just another way of saying very aggressive sudden FOMO without a change in fundamentals. That's it, right? It doesn't mean necessarily that you're going to go to the moon. It just means it's going to surprise a lot of people when it's not based on anything except people wanting to chase.

Right. And just like when the media in June on June 16, when CNBC said markets and turmoil, I mean, I have that tweet. Right. They literally said markets and turmoil June 16 of last year, which was the first real low. They're going to say melt up towards the top of it. Because everyone's always just chasing price. And narratives fall. So as narratives fall, you made the great point earlier, which I continue to say that it's all noise and there's very little signal. But is there any signal in the speeches of these Fed governors and their statements and their testimonies in Congress

and their meetings, or, you know, is a 5% effective rate really not that different from a 5.5%, you know, Fed rate, if that's where we top out? I mean, it's not, it's nuanced, but I mean, that's not really a big difference. So I don't see why. Right. And so why does the market move so massively in the day that we get the news and it might be 5.25 instead of five? That's noise to me. Going from 0% to 1% is an infinitely larger move than going from 5% to 6%. So you're right. The magnitude and affection nowhere near be as large because they are on a higher base this time on yields. Right. So that's why, again, I keep going back to all these narratives

don't make sense. If the bear narrative is right, you would see it unequivocally in defaults, risk premiums. It's not there. It's just not there. So the simplest answer is the right one. Cycles still exist, okay? It's a pre-election year, probably going to be positive for equities, probably going to be volatile, probably going to be a credit event because that's typically how these things tend to end. By the way, the credit event is just another way of saying major VIX spike. Yes. So what do you think that credit event is? That's the refinancing all of this debt effectively. I mean, everybody has these lower rates and now rates are higher. It expires and oh shit. I suspect that that's my base case.

Now, having said that, markets are funny in that it could be a credit event that comes out of nowhere from a place nobody could ever see. Like what almost happened with the UK last year. Right. So it's ultimately about not where it comes from, but the conditions are there for it to happen from somewhere. I think it's going to happen from the corporate side, right? Because again, it makes sense given the, the rollover, but for all we know, it could come from an emerging market. And by the way, where it comes from doesn't matter. It's about the effects, right?

The effect would be high volatility, risk off, flight to safety. And I keep going back to, you know, you've seen that Scott chart. I showed many times on Twitter, top 20 drawdowns for the S and P against treasuries last year, the only time in history the flight to safety trade failed. By the way, for all those people that say Treasuries don't work in an inflationary bear market, I'm sorry, you're full of shit. You can clearly see in the 70s, Treasuries still countered in an inflationary bear market

equity volatility. Not an opinion fact. But if you're going to have a credit event, that might mean you break the lows at some point that were set last year. You break the lows on equities. That could reassert the fight to safety trade. That could make treasuries in that next wave lower,

which is my base case, suddenly look like the place to be. We're starting to see some signs of that, meaning you're starting to see the long end of the curve, even with the Fed and all this rhetoric, start to respond better to higher volatility, meaning money is actually going into the long end of the treasury curve. I think that that behavior starts maybe just starting to reassert. Maybe it's wishful thinking because I need it for my own funds, candidly, which, again,

I'm very upfront with this. Everybody's talking about their own book at the end of the day, right? I believe that there's going to be a flight to safety trade because I need to believe that also for my funds and history would suggest that I'm probably going to be right on that. I hope it happens sooner than later because that's the fastest way for my strategies to come out of the drawdown last year. But there are dynamics here which look a little bit more like they're normalizing, at least in terms of the interplay of the risk off safe haven of treasuries to the risk on everything else. So we have a 2023 melt up 2024, we potentially have a credit event. So interestingly, that means we could see a newer low in markets, you know, a new fresh low. And people want to see these things happen in a month, we're talking about a year and a half year down the road. Or could I say year down the road. That's a capitulation bottom though, right? We're not saying that's a great depression or great reset. That's how you

get the big spike down, volatility goes up, the bottom comes in, and then we chop our way up to new highs in four or five years. Right. And to be clear, I mean, it seems plausible to me that could happen this year, right? Because again, if the refinancing rollover is going to be bulleted next year, a lot of those rollovers happen in 2024, the market would start to anticipate it in 2023, right? So that's why, you know, the 87 crash analogy is an interesting one. Not that I think we're going to have something like that, but that was a pre-election year. The Dow was up 30% prior to Black Monday. People don't talk about that. But that was a pre-election year. The Dow was up 30% prior to Black Monday. People don't talk about that. But the Dow in 1987 was up 30% prior to Black Monday. Then you had Black Monday. It was a pre-election year and the stock market still closed positive, up 2% for 1987.

Again, I'm not suggesting that that's how it plays out, but it seems plausible that you could have a parallel to that. If a credit event were to start to get priced in this year still be a positive year could have a big move in advance of that and that's where the path is going to matter again more than the prediction yeah and that that lends to the idea of one capitulation event but a quick bounce right right so i mean we've seen i mean any everyone here trades bitcoin and all coins right so we've seen a 30 40 move to the downside retraced in a month and the asset closes higher. Completely familiar for anyone who's in crypto, but it's harder to imagine, I think, when you're talking about the stock market. But that is a very rational base case

for how this all ends. It's also the way markets prior to QE3 worked. I mean, a lot of my work, a lot of my analysis, despite people not fully understanding why I frame things the way they frame them, is based not just on performance of markets historically and interrelationships, but it's the sequence interaction. The way it plays out is where a lot of my work comes from. So that pattern is not uncommon at all. Right. So, but people haven't really seen that. You can argue with the exception of the COVID crash, right. But that was also very unusual in the, in the snapback. Right. But historically markets can have big moves. Then sudden very, that's the whole staircase up elevator down type argument. You know, that dynamic comes back in. People are not used to it. Those that have been in the industry for a while are used to it. Those that have back-tested based on data that is built off of that will hopefully,

like me, do well in the approach. And I'd argue everybody should want to see that. It's like the best time, you know, this is from the cryptocurrency side, best time to buy anything. The generational buys are when you lose a whole generation to investing. Yeah. When everybody gets completely washed out, that final moment of panic when people sell the dead ass lows and say, I'm done. I'm out of here. I'm broke. Yeah. They quit. Yeah. Blood in the streets, even if it's your own. I mean, there's a million memes and quotes for why that's a good idea. I guess then the question just becomes was, you know, SPX at, what was the low,

at, you know, 3,500, was that the blood in the streets? Yeah. And my response would be, it's not just about level, it's about how you, the speed with which it happens, right? So it's more than just sort of a trickle of blood. It's a gash, right? The gash of speed is my point, right? So if you're going to have a credit credit event it's going to probably happen in a very sharp waterfall type of decline that brace lows which again would bring back would bring back that flight to safety right cause the big spike everybody's been waiting on that hasn't happened yet um but again i keep going back to you know you know i use all these lines right it's like stock market humbles everybody just not all at once so we're still in the humbling phase, I think, for the bears.

The bulls are next to get humbled. Yeah, I tend to agree. Interestingly, though, I think on both sides, my feeling is that there's less conviction. And that's why we're sort of chopping sideways. We've had a bit of, I mean, you could even say we've had a melt-up in 2023 to some degree right which is not is not is not so uh so surprising for you know january and february sort of optimism but i hear very few people at this point or extremely mixed opinions but very few people with a very strong view of where price is going to be in a few months. I think a lot of people are hedging their bets, low conviction calls. And that makes sense. I don't blame them.

That to me means everyone's going to get chopped up. Yeah. So, and by the way, the, the, the short-term ism on the conviction is related, right? So to the extent that people are day trading, once you send the people are doing zero DTE options, it's because there's no conviction in the long term, either way directionally. Right. So it is interesting, right?

Because on FinTwit, you see a lot of very big bear accounts. Most of them are anonymous, which nobody even knows if these are actual people that have any skin in the game. But they get a lot of likes and retweets. They show all this doom bear porn that you can't backtest. There's no predictive power. And it gets all these likes, retweets, engagement. And you would think, well, everyone's bearish based on that. But to your point, action-wise,

the data doesn't really confirm that. So you have people that are really just negative on everything in sentiment, but they're not necessarily responding to it in their own trades. And then you have people that are kind of more permables, somehow seemingly forgetting that every major bear market tends to end with a bang, which you haven't had yet.

Yeah, just checking what yields are at this moment. I mean, two years just putting in new highs today. Yeah, why not? At least weekly. I mean, yeah, the high was right there in October was around 4.9. I mean, today it hit 5, basically, or just under. Very hard to, let me, I can't even just bring it up. People, by the way, they say, well, because of the two years

doing that, how could the stock market keep going higher? 5.08. Five. Why not? Great. Let it happen. But you know what? None of that's going to stop people from trying to gamble. Nothing stops people from trying to gamble if we've learned anything.

Unless you're 20 20%, right? And make it so, so stupidly high. So this is what I'm saying. All these narratives get countered when you start thinking about human emotion interacting with the data. I look at this and I see this potential candle. I mean, we have seven more hours and I say, that's it. This is going to drop. Stocks are going to melt up.

And then we'll reset the panic in a month. And I'm going to look at it. And that's why I'm is going to drop. Stocks are going to melt up and then we'll reset the panic in a month. And I'm going to look at it and that's why I'm looking away right now. And if you look at long duration treasuries, I mean, what's happening to yield? Stocks are already bouncing. Well, this is the 10 year, two year here, but I can, let me see if I have the 10 year. If you just look at TLT as the proxy for price. Yeah, I just don't know if I have the TLT. Yeah, one second. As we're talking, it's up 0.9%, meaning yields are dropping on the long end. Two years rising, but long end.

They're clearly dropping. Yeah, let me go on TLT. Oh, but hold on. I thought the Fed controlled the long end. Oh, man. I'm spazzing out here. We'll get there. I'm trying to get TLT. That's not it.

I love that on mine, it defaults to crypto. There's the daily on TLT right there, if you can see it. So yeah. Price going up means yield's going down, right? So if the two year yield is going up, the yield's going up. That means the price is going down for the two year yield. If the price on TLT is going up, that means that the long duration yields are dropping. Opposite actions. Yeah. I think stocks and Bitcoin will probably rip. You heard it here first.

Yeah. But yeah, I think that, I mean, I look at that two year chart and I mean, we'll see how it ends up, but that kind of candle, even if you just zoom out, ignore all the noise, about as toppy as it gets, there's one right there, and you can see that was the top for months. By the way, just real quick on your point about conviction. The one thing I have seen there's a lot of conviction on is there's a lot of net speculative short positioning in long duration treasuries. This is fact. It's like as the most amount of short.

Like people shorting 10 years. Right. Meaning the price, meaning expecting that the 10-year yield keeps on rising. But talk about crowd or trade. That is, I used that tweet before. Long-duration treasuries, independent of a flight to safety dynamic, they're set to rip because it's just such a contrarian move now to not bet on. Yeah. So you think that they get squeezed and it goes the other way.

Yeah, right. Which means price goes up, yields go down. So you asked me the exact same question on Friday and you kind of giggled and agreed quickly. You said, so ignoring all of this, what the hell are you doing with your investments? I said, dude, I bought a lot of bonds, something like that. Right. Is that where you're at? Two-year treasuries for me, but yeah. Yeah.

So, I mean, like my Roro ETF, which again, it's rules-based using lumber gold as the relation. Right now, it's long duration treasuries. But it's not a very, it depends on sort of the time frame because it's weekly. So I used that meme before. It's like, this would be like a double rainbow type of thing. I was wrong a couple times saying that, but double rainbow is like, what does this mean? Where stocks and treasuries both

rally? I mean, why can't that happen? They both sold off. They've been very correlated even this year. Yeah, it was the worst year in history for the 60-40 portfolio. That can go up the other way. Yeah, of course. So at some point, there's going to be divergence. Again, that's the flight to safety dynamic. But they co-moved on the way down.

It makes sense that they co-moved on the way up. One's probably going to go up faster, which I would suspect is Treasuries again because of the net spec of the short positioning. But again, it's like all these narratives are just wrong that people have. Right. But right now, going specifically to what you. But, you know, right now, going specifically to what you're doing, I mean, my my thinking on buying the two years sort of just like thinking like a hedge fund, right? Lose less when shit is bad. And don't worry about gambling and making money. Yeah, you're not losing money. I'm talking about losing relative

to inflation, of course. Right. If you believe that real inflation is 6%, 7%, 8%, then yes, getting 4.5% or 5% is less attractive. But first of all, I mean, there's people who are saying that real inflation now is sub 5%. Truflation, I think, is a site that I've never heard of that everybody's been referencing for the last two days. Listen, with enough data out there, you can make an argument for anything. Inflation is actually 20%. No, actually it's 5%.

It's like, who the hell knows what the real inflation rate is. The Fed doesn't know itself either. But the market probably has a better sense than anybody else. And again,

I go back to, if it's going to be really stressful for the markets, you better believe it's going to show itself in credit spreads. You're not there. All these words and all this bullshit. The only

entity that cares about what the Fed has to say at the end of the day is the media. The media makes more money off of what the Fed says than traders through ratings. Yeah, and they get to rock the market in the meantime, which is a bonus for that. Yeah, and all the wrong behavior takes place. It's nonsense.

Ah, yeah. These two-year rates are bouncing all over the place. They're back over 5% right now. They were at 4.9 when we were just looking at it. So any final thoughts, anything you'd like to share with everyone before I let you go? Maybe, you know, some perspective here. I think we've offered quite a bit of that.

Yeah, well, I'd say the big thing is, you know, get off of FinTwit, get off of all these very short-term ways of thinking about things, actually learn and study. I keep going back to that point and think about cycles. Look, I had a rough time last year. I've had cycles that work with my approach and cycles that don't. I'm a big fan of rules-based back testing. I'm a bigger fan of the idea that people have actually put the effort into working. So stop just looking at tweets and engaging and retweeting and going based on whatever narrative or soundbite there is.

Go beyond the headline and study. The only way you get good at anything. Put in your 10,000 hours, Malcolm Gladwell. Yeah, dude. Gladwell is 100% right on that. 100%. Yeah, absolutely. Where can everybody follow you? Obviously, you have the newsletter, which is amazing.

Sign up for that. Check out everything else you're doing. Yeah, no, I mean, Twitter is the main one, Adley Lagaport. And then I'm trying to not quite compete with you, but catch up to you with my own YouTube channel as well, which is Where Put the Spaces. But you're doing a killer job. You went to like 35,000 subscribers in like a week or two, it seems like. I've been told by haters they're all bots. I've been told none of that is real. Because, you know, clearly I make money on bots, right?

Clearly, as somebody who's a fund manager, I have an incentive to have fake accounts follow me. Clearly. Yeah, well, I don't know. Maybe people actually just care about what you're saying. Yeah, that's shocking. Few understand this. All right, man.

Well, thank you very much. I'm going to let you go do a little house cleaning here afterwards. Enjoy the rest of the day and try to, you know, stay off Twitter and ignore the news. I will be streaming spaces from the CFA Charlie, Charlie. Thank you, buddy. Thanks. Awesome. Check him out there. Thanks, man. Michael Dyer, ladies and gentlemen, of course, one of our favorite guests he and I continuing to go back and forth on each

other's shows. Always nice to get that perspective. Yeah, these two years are bouncing all over the place. So I wanted to see what you guys thought of Twitter spaces yesterday. Obviously, I did not show up here. We decided to do Twitter spaces at 11 a.m. We had a bigger audience there than we obviously have on YouTube. Not a big surprise. And it was, I felt like a great format to have more guests. And you guys may remember when we first did the first round table or first, second, third round table, we used to have rolling guests and I would like be quietly on Twitter, inviting more people and they would come in and we would get a new perspective. It would last for two hours. It was pretty awesome. So I'm curious, A, if you guys listened to the spaces yesterday, B, what you thought about that, because we are, you know, listen, you're the ones who matter,

and we are deeply considering, you know, how much time to spend on each platform moving forward. YouTube's obviously not going anywhere. It's just that some of it, Drew suffize said, didn't like not having video on Spaces, to be honest. Also had some connection issues with some users that were cutting it out. So technologically, Spaces has a lot of problems. I've done quite a few of them. The last few days, I'm actually getting to co-host

with Rand Nooner at 1015 and other Spaces. But I did two Spaces the day before. And if your Wi-Fi disconnects and moves over, you can lose it for an hour. People, the hosts, I mean, Miles Dutcher, I was on his. I ended up having to take over kind of loosely as host because he was unable to hear. And then he didn't get back for 15 minutes. And it was pretty crazy. Yeah. Des says it was pretty crazy. Yeah.

Des says it was good, but he must get used to it. Where was that comment? Didn't get to listen. Unfortunately, there is a recording so you guys can check it out. Matt says it was rad. I mean, I thought it was awesome. I really thought it was awesome. But I, with Matt, I agree.

I like seeing faces on YouTube. So I can tell you for sure that on Mondays, Macro Monday is building so nicely here where I'm not going to mess with that. And Thursday roundtables are going to be here. We're not going to mess with that at all. So this really, to me, is more of just an added sort of bonus. Devin says, can you repost on YouTube?

I asked Misha. Hey, Misha, are you there? Can we repost them on YouTube? Does that work? I don't know. To my producer, we would have to figure that out. I would say it's possible, but you won't see the faces. So I'm not sure. Yeah. Ramon says best part is the recordability. Yeah, you record it. So first of all, we need to figure out how to third party record it, which is possible. If you record it through spaces which i didn't know then you have to download your entire twitter analytics and data history to get it out and that takes like 24 hours so yeah that is uh kind of lame

ched's post is spaces on youtube that's something worth uh talking about for us i guess yeah i also like being able to look in people's face i I just like being able on Twitter spaces to host more people and have a bigger conversation, which is more difficult here. What about Twitch? I think that's just sort of reinventing YouTube. So I don't really see the difference there. Simon Dixon also uploads an audio version here. Simon was there as well yesterday.

And doing both at the same time. So I believe that Crypto Banter is doing that right now. So there's some tech challenges to doing that. The audiences react different to things, but it is something we'd consider. The problem then largely becomes that the guests have to have multiple audio feeds, right? They have to be like talking into Twitter spaces, but also into a mic in their computer and listening. So it's very challenging, bottom line. So we're trying to figure it out. I was just trying to get a general consensus. Also, of course, guys, I mean, I mentioned the Daily Close. That's the new newsletter that I started. It's been off to a great start for the first three days. Already getting some great feedback. I don't know if any of you are subscribed. Most of you probably can't see it. I mean, this is what yesterday's looked

like, right? The daily close. Most trendy news, which is the most interesting articles over the last 24 hours. This is based on the volume of tweets about the articles, right? So this is all the key. I think this is amazing. I've been looking at it myself. Macro futures, just giving you an idea of what's happening in the market in general. This is all at the close at 7 p.m. What happened with the top 20 largest coins in 24 hours? Tweet volume versus trading volume. I use this one all the time to get an idea of where the sentiment and interest is. Of course, daily outliers. Now this questionable because number one is VGX. We know that happened because of the Voyager thing, but maybe this needs some context because I certainly wouldn't tell people, hey, go buy Voyager right now. But trade volume,

percentages, tweet volume, exchange inflows and outflows, active addresses. I mean, you've seen it all. The idea here was I've showed you guys this. this is my screener using the tie. And I basically, we just took the most important ones that I use to share, right? Like trending collections, all this inflows, outflows to give you a daily snapshot. Now the idea down the road is to flip this once we have enough people to flip this into like a discord or something where you get, uh, these updates in the moment. Um, and then we can discuss them. So that would be the, the idea of kind of building a community around it. But, uh, just curious that you guys always feel free to send your feedback and you can of course, uh, subscribe to check it out. It's a

week free before it becomes $25 a month. So if you want to give feedback and you can, of course, subscribe to check it out. It's a week free before it becomes $25 a month. So if you want to give feedback, you can just sign up for it for a week and check that out. Please make it a downloadable audio listen. I have big drive tomorrow night. Well, you can listen to it on Twitter. There is the recording there. But yeah, I'm going to work on that. All right, guys, I got to run.

I'm going to join Twitter spaces with Rand Nooner. So I hope you guys will come hang out with me there. And of course, we'll be back tomorrow with Dave Nodig, Lucas Otomoro from Into the Block, and James Poocher from TradeStation. It should be an amazing panel. I will see you guys here tomorrow and probably on Twitter Spaces in about five minutes. Peace.