The Wolf Of All Streets - Your Bitcoin Target Of $150,000 Is Too Low l Here's Why!

Episode Date: November 7, 2023

Caleb Franzen and Wick join to discuss the current market and why your targets for the next cycle top are too low! ►►TRADING ALPHA READY TO TRADE LIKE THE PROS? THE BEST TRADERS IN CRYPTO ARE RELYING ON THESE INDICATORS TO MAKE TRADES. USE CODE ‘2MONTHSOFF’ WHEN VISITING MY LINK.  👉 https://tradingalpha.io/?via=scottmelker  ►► JOIN THE FREE WOLF DEN NEWSLETTER, DELIVERED EVERY WEEK DAY! 👉https://thewolfden.substack.com/   ►►OKX SIGN UP FOR AN OKX TRADING ACCOUNT THEN DEPOSIT & TRADE TO UNLOCK MYSTERY BOX REWARDS OF UP TO $60,000!  👉 https://www.okx.com/join/SCOTTMELKER  ►►THE DAILY CLOSE BRAND NEW NEWSLETTER! INSTITUTIONAL GRADE INDICATORS AND DATA DELIVERED DIRECTLY TO YOUR INBOX, EVERY DAY AT THE DAILY CLOSE. TRADE LIKE THE BIG BOYS. 👉 https://www.thedailyclose.io/   ►►NORD VPN  GET EXCLUSIVE NORDVPN DEAL - 40% DISCOUNT! IT’S RISK-FREE WITH NORD’S 30-DAY MONEY-BACK GUARANTEE. PROTECT YOUR PRIVACY! 👉 https://nordvpn.com/WolfOfAllStreets   ►►COINROUTES TRADE SPOT & DERIVATIVES ACROSS CEFI AND DEFI USING YOUR OWN ACCOUNTS WITH THIS ADVANCED ALGORITHMIC PLATFORM. SAVE TONS OF MONEY ON TRADING FEES LIKE THE PROS! 👉 http://bit.ly/3ZXeYKd  Follow Scott Melker: Twitter: @scottmelker    Web: https://www.thewolfofallstreets.io   Spotify: https://spoti.fi/30N5FDe   Apple podcast: https://apple.co/3FASB2c   #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. This video was created for entertainment. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this video constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.

Everyone loves a good price prediction, especially to know where Bitcoin is going to top out in the next cycle. Last year, of course, it was $69,000 last cycle, I should say, not last year. And we're getting institutions and traders and influencers, everybody telling us where price is going at the top of the next cycle. Seems consensus is around $150,000. I think that might be very low and so does today's guest, Caleb Franzen. And of course, at the end, we have Wick sharing a bunch of charts and trading ideas alongside some of the requests that you guys made on Twitter. So you got to stick around for that in the back half.

Is 150,000 too low? Let's discuss it. Let's go. What is up, everybody? I'm Scott Melker, also known as the Wolf of Wall Street. Before we get started, please subscribe to the channel and hit that like button. Today is awesome because I went on Twitter and I crowdsourced the show. Because as you know, my producer is not here at the moment. I said, who do you want to see as the guest and what do you want us to talk about? And the first immediate suggestion from one of our longtime followers was to have Caleb come on today. And

I thought, damn, we've done a lot of Twitter spaces, but we've actually never done it on YouTube. Caleb's kind of hard to keep up with because he's always judging by his photos is in some different country, some different time zone, living it up while the rest of us plebs are back here, you know, taking care of our kids and stuck in our houses and living in this amazing United States where everything is so great right now. I can see why he probably wants to travel. I'm going to go ahead and bring him on. And we're going to talk about the topic at hand. Caleb, good morning. How are you, man? Scott, what's up? That intro song got me fired up. I'm happy to be here. Yeah, man. I guess it's not good morning where you are, sort of, as I said, but it is 9am Eastern Standard Time here. And I expect everybody to adjust to my

thinking. So listen, you wrote an amazing thread. I'm just Standard Time here, and I expect everybody to adjust to my thinking. So listen, you wrote an amazing thread. I'm just going to go ahead and bring it up right here. It was sort of the idea for this topic. Your Bitcoin target of $150K is too low. Here's why, guys. That's what happens when I write the titles and not my producer. We get extremely hyperbolic and excited. But you basically make the case here that 150 could be low. Certainly, the recent all-time highs are low. And you're still looking at around 175K. But let's paint the macro picture that sort of gives you that context. Anyone here, they all listen to Macro Monday, which is my show with James Lavish, Mike McGlone, and Dave Weisberger on Mondays. And those dudes are super bearish, right?

So maybe it's good to get another perspective here. So what are you looking at? Okay. So I think the baseline for my general outlook always starts with monetary policy. But the thing I've really kind of been hounding the table on since December of last year is disinflation, right? So prices are still going up. They're just going up at a slower pace, right? So the rate of inflation is decelerating. And so that's basically my thesis continuing to go forward, right? So the rate of inflation is decelerating. And so that's basically my thesis continuing to go forward, right? Largely driven by shelter dynamics, what I'm expecting to see from crude oil rolling over here. We're about to fall below that 200-day

moving average today on crude. So I think that's a very, very big sign. And so generally speaking, I like to put myself in the shoes of the Federal Reserve. How are they thinking about different monetary policy dynamics with respect to their dual mandate and with respect to inflation? And so right now, the federal funds rate is at 5.3%. And we have inflation at 3.7%. So we basically have a positive real federal funds rate of what is that? Off the top of my head, it's like 1.6%. For people who don't understand, just real Fed funds rate, guys, it's the difference between the Fed funds rate and inflation. So just so people know, it's not the same as the Fed funds rate, which we all hear about being 5% or 5.5%. Yeah. Correct. So my general thesis is that the

Fed is going to continue to pause. So they're going to keep that 5.33% effective Fed funds rate. But as disinflation continues to take course, as that rate of inflation slows down, the Fed, the real Fed funds rate is actually going to become larger and larger and larger. And generally speaking, at this point of the inflationary cycle, I don't think that that's something that the Fed actually wants to achieve. And so my general belief is that starting in Q3 of next year, the Fed is going to have what I'm referring to as non-recessionary or disinflationary rate cuts with a magnitude of about 100 to 250 basis points. So they try to bring that real Fed funds rate back to basically where it is today,

which is positive. It's higher than it's been over the course of the last 15 years. It's still restrictive. It's still tight. It's just not 400 basis points tight. So I think that's kind of the general backdrop. And in that environment, first of all, no one is really talking about that specific outlook and those particular data points. And so this is literally just not priced into the market. It's not priced into the treasury market. It's not priced into the equity market. It's not priced into Bitcoin, in addition to all of the fundamental factors happening with Bitcoin. So we can talk more specifically about how I come to 175. But if there's any questions about that specifically,

I'm happy to answer. Yeah. I want to dig more into that macro picture. I think that probably where the reason that people aren't coming to that conclusion is because you're giving the Fed a lot of credit for being smart, and most people don't. We even have Kashkari yesterday. The Fed's Neil Kashkari, not convinced rate hikes are over. So if you go on Bloomberg right now, of course, they have to explain what's happening in the market every minute. They say stocks under pressure as Fed inflation fears increase literally like day to day as if we get 15 of these guys speaking. But he basically says here, if it settles in over 2%, it would be very, very concerning. So I think that maybe there's a gap between what you're saying, which is very rational. I actually agree with. I think that the Fed should have stopped tightening a year ago, eight, nine months ago,

whatever, because they haven't given it time to see what those hikes have done. And I do think we have disinflation. But I think there's a fear that these guys just, they want to see 2% and they'll just keep going until they do and not worry about what's going to break in 12 months. I think we're going to be at 2% much sooner than people realize though, right? So disinflation is in full force and that shelter component is sticky as hell, right? So shelter makes up 33% of headline and 41% of core. And that's still super elevated. If you take shelter out from services and you look at services inflation, that's within the historic range, if not kind of towards the lower bound of where CPI typically trends. And so a lot of these different data points are already showing that inflation has broadly

returned back to the Fed's target. And it's really the fact that we have lagging data that is kind of keeping it still elevated at this point. And so my general belief is that that's going to reconcile over time. And I'm also not surprised to hear Kashkari and other Fed speakers continue to talk tough. The Fed talks loudly and they carry a small stick behind their back. They're not a big threat, but they need to use forward guidance and the rhetoric as a policy tool in order to guide markets. Because if the Fed came out and said today, we're done hiking rates, party on, inflation is defeated, they back themselves into a corner. So the Fed, we're done hiking rates, party on, inflation is defeated, they back themselves into a corner. So the Fed, they're trying to give themselves maximum flexibility.

They don't want to be on the flip side of transitory because they did exactly what you're describing, but on the other side. Correct. Yeah, that would be suboptimal. But in here, I think I read the thread. You said you still don't think that there's going to be any cuts until Q3 24, right? So we're still talking about almost nine months away or something. Correct. Going into the year, I said, don't expect rate cuts, expect between 0.5% and 1.25% of rate hikes. That's basically exactly what we've got. We've had exactly 1% of rate hikes this year. And at the time, the market was pricing in cuts when I came out with that prediction. And so I've been a stringent hawk, if you will, putting myself in the shoes of the Fed saying

they're going to continue to stay the course. I came out in February of 2022 and said, is this Powell's Volcker moment? And I kind of got ridiculed for saying that on Twitter at the time. And sure as hell, that's exactly what it's been. So for the first time, I'm actually kind of talking about Fed rate cuts, but again, not starting until no sooner than Q3 of next year, 2024. The predictive markets have been astoundingly wrong the entire time, which just shows you how bad... I mean, we're doing predictions here, of course, but it shows you just how bad humans are predicting things. It was only seven or eight months ago that we were supposed to be on our second cut by now, to your point. That's right.

But it was three cuts at the end of 2023, I believe, like last March or April. Exactly. Yeah. And then, I mean, even with the whole banking situation this year, the market started pricing significant rate cuts happening. I was like, I think they're still going to stay the course. So here we are. Yeah. But yeah. Okay. So listen, let's then talk about Bitcoin specifically. So that's a bit of a Goldilocks environment you've described. I'm here for it. You're saying that the Fed will basically orchestrate this soft landing. I have my doubts, but I like it. So what does that mean for Bitcoin

or does it even matter? Because I think maybe the first question is, is Bitcoin still reacting to what's happening in the macro or has this very clear, at least temporary, de-correlation shaken that at all? I mean, obviously, stocks have been all over the place. Bitcoin's continued to rise. If you look at the correlations, they're sub 0.1, very, very low to everything. Yeah. So I just want to be clear, you know, part of that thesis that I outlined is pricing in some economic softness. So that softness doesn't necessarily mean deterioration. But I think it's a baseline expectation that we should expect for slower growth and some, you know, a moderate uptick in something like the unemployment rate than just generally speaking, looking at the labor market. And so as we kind of apply this to

Bitcoin, again, I think the market is already kind of pricing this in to a modest degree, but we're also having the price in these ETF approvals. We're having the price in the fact that we're less than 170 days away from the halving event. And so it's hard to prescribe exactly what the market is pricing in and to what capacity because it's multivariate, right? The market and prices are multivariate. But the reason why I come up with this $175,000 price target, and I'm sharing my screen here on this, looking at the Bitcoin all-time index, looking at weekly candles. And so generally speaking, every single bull market always tags the 161.8% extension from the prior bull market highs to the recent

bear market lows. So we can look back here at this 2013 cycle and we hit the 161.8% extension from the prior highs to the bear market lows. And in fact, we went even higher, right? So we at least hit that target. And you can even see we even cooled down once we hit that level. Now, if we look at the next cycle, we take the highs to the bear market lows, and we at least hit the 161.8. We went even higher. The 161.8 here goes to about 4,500. We ended up going to

20,000. So it didn't even price in the maximum upside. If we look at the 2017 highs to the bear market lows in 2018, 161.8 gave us 62,500 on the price of Bitcoin. We all know we topped out at 69K. So let's do the same thing again. It's not rocket science. That 161.8% extension is used... This is one of the first things that I learned about technical analysis nine years ago. Yeah. So we can tag that from the highs. The first chapter. Yeah, exactly. Chapter one.

First chapter of technical analysis 101. Use Fibonacci. Now extend. Yes, of course. Yeah, exactly. And this gives you a price target or a level to at least take some profits, right? So we could take it from the prior highs, 69,000 to the recent bear market lows, around 15K. And that gives us $174,841.20. Let's just call it 175K. Imagine that's where it tops though. Imagine you hit it to the tick on the 174, 79, 455. Yeah, it's like pie. Yeah, go ahead. Look, it's possible. But look, like I'm saying, in all of these market dynamics, we at least hit that level. We have clear proof from prior market cycles that we can even go beyond that

161.8%. So whether your target is 150,000 or 175,000, I don't think you're off the mark to if someone's believing that we're going to top out at 150, sure. What's 25,000 between friends? I just want to be clear. I think it can go higher than this. We've never had institutional adoption like what we're about to have in this upcoming cycle as we get blanket spot ETF approvals is generally my base case scenario. So with the halving coming in, with non-recessionary rate cuts potentially on the table starting in Q3 of next year, and with spot ETFs coming in and institutional investors getting a 1% to 5% portfolio allocation to Bitcoin, I think we can get a little crazy here with these price targets.

And I think talking even above 175, I'd be willing to entertain that if someone showed me a chart. I'm sticking to 235, but unfortunately, that was my target last cycle. So now I'm just emotionally attached to my last cycle target. But I agree with everything you said. And what I find interesting is that you can make the argument in the macro for why the environment would be correct for this. But then you can literally take the macro entirely out of it, just pull up the four-year chart of Bitcoin, which I have a very similar chart that shows sort of the exact same thing, where we should be at each point in the cycle, why this year before the halving is exactly as it's been every single time that we've done this

and where we're likely headed. So incredibly, you can say, hey, the macro aligns for this. By the way, I talked to Raoul Paul and he pointed out that there's also a liquidity cycle that happens with refinancing and this is the presidential four-year cycle. I mean, they all align. It's pretty incredible for election year. And you can take all of that out and just look at this chart and say, 2025, we should be double at least the all-time high, right? And back on this. And you could have fallen on your head and never talked about Jerome Powell or inflation or a hawkish Fed and just look at this chart, right? So it all kind of aligns. Yeah, exactly. And I think there's one point that I

also want to make just talking about this catalyst of these ETF approvals, right? We have to really kind of contextualize the price dynamics that happened after that literally fake news announcement by Cointelegraph, right? And we basically had a rally from 31,000 to 35,000 over the course of 15 minutes on unverified news. So the thing that I've been pondering over and talking to my subscribers about is what happens when we get a formal SEC press release? What happens when there's some sort of press conference? What happens when BlackRock comes out with their marketing materials? Like I said, we basically had a $5,000 rally in the course of 15 minutes on unverified news and rumors spreading on Twitter. So what really takes place if we can get a sustained market rally based on verified news? Yeah, we had it twice. We had the 28 to 30

and back to 28, which was while we were live here on a Monday, right? And that was on the Cointelegraph fake tweet. And then the DTCC news was the one that sent it from 31 to 35. So you have two verified news stories that basically got us from 28 to 35 without any meaning behind it. Exactly. So, you know, like I'm saying, if we had a $5,000 candle on unverified news and just basically rumors that were perpetuated to be real news, what happens when we get the real news? What happens when we get the SEC press conference? What happens when we get press releases published and blanket ETF approvals? Let's say three to five of these ETFs get approved like this. I am not throwing out the idea that we could have a $20,000 daily candle on the price of Bitcoin on that news. That's totally reasonable, I think, for most people who can actually understand this. And for most people who have watched the price action of Bitcoin in the past,

right? It's like everybody has a recency bias and that's part of that third year, I guess, of the cycle. But you get this recency bias that all of a sudden it's not a volatile asset. There's no liquidity and open interest is low. But the thing is, I mean, we're actually, you know, if you look at the institutional side, I mean, here, for example, record breaking open interest on CME shows growing market activity. And we talked about this. I mean, CME is about to pass Binance on futures volume. Yeah. That's insane. Of course, we know that Binance is heading

in one direction and CME is heading in the other. All the Binance FUD, them getting kicked out of certain countries, whether justified or not, there just obviously is less trading happening on Binance. But this is only institutions trading CME futures. It's not like your average guy on Twitter calls up his RIA and it's like, get me some of those sweet futures contracts, right? You have to be an institution to do this. Exactly. Yeah. And that points to the institutional interest you're talking about, and then you include the halving, right? So reduced supply, increased demand. I think Saylor even went on TV yesterday

or the day before and basically pointed this out. He's like, we're going to get institutional demand from an ETF at the exact moment that the supply is cutting in half. Exactly. Let's think about 2020. We had two primary catalysts being the halving and a monetary bazooka following an exogenous recession from COVID. So two catalysts, halving, monetary bazooka. As we look to 2024, we have three catalysts. We have monetary easing if my non-recessionary slash disinflationary rate cuts come to fruition. We have the halving event, and now we have institutional adoption via spot ETFs, right? So this isn't like adoption in terms of tech, or all of a sudden everyone's going to be exchanging Bitcoin to transact value,

but simply just having financial investors looking for an allocation, somewhere between 1% and 5% within their portfolios. So I love the idea of the $20,000 god candle on that news. I get this funny feeling that we see some sort of monster dip, and then you just buy the hell out of that dip. I don't know which way it's going to go, but very quick, and then that's your last opportunity before the rocket leaves. The only interesting part, because at that point, if we are looking at the halving cycle, and this happens in December, November, or January, it's a little too early for us to head to all-time highs, right? I mean, we still should be doing that. Listen, the cycle can break.

I'm just saying, maybe that news really does break the cycle. It would have to if we get a $20,000 candle, we're way above where we should be before halving. It'd be pretty unique for sure. Yeah. We literally haven't seen new all-time highs before halving before. So we don't even have to have that in the base case, right? Let's say officially these ETFs get approved in like february or march of 2024 and then the having happens in april april okay perfect it all comes together simultaneously right it's like i think that's i think the most important thing is like it's fun to talk about what will happen if it gets approved whatever if you look a year down the road right now even the the base case is so incredibly bullish. I don't understand

people who don't see that. Even if you're having ETF, everybody seems to think that even if your base case is incorrect about macro, that cuts are coming. Now, we do know that when the Fed pivots, that's usually when stocks correct, but that's a different conversation for another day. Yeah, it all just depends on the catalyst for the cut, right? Because typically we might see a cut and then we might dip into a recession within 12 months as the Fed is trying to be forward thinking. They over tighten, they overstay their welcome and they're saying, oh crap, we need to kind of dial it back a little bit and then things kind of fold over. So who knows exactly what the future holds and the timing on all of this, even if a recession still happens, you know, between now and, you know, let's just

say like the next six to 12 months. I still think that we could have bullish price dynamics taking place for Bitcoin. And even still, as I view Bitcoin as, you know, this independent, decentralized monetary network, that's probably still where I want to keep a lot of my savings anyways. That's the question we always get here. Somebody asked, if you had to buy one asset for the next 10 years, you could only put your money in one asset, what would it be? Somebody asked me that last week and I actually said Bitcoin. I didn't even have to think that long about it. Well, I was like, can I get 10-year treasuries? Liquid 10-year treasuries. I was like, I don't know if I can live in Bitcoin for the next 10 years. That would probably be pretty challenging. So listen, I don't know if you generally look too

deeply at altcoins, but what's your thinking on the rest of the crypto market if this all plays out? Yeah. So this cycle is going to be very different than prior cycles because we have this very unique catalyst with these spot ETFs coming through. So traditionally, what we see is during a bull market, we see Bitcoin dominance falling because investors are moving further and further out onto the risk curve. They're buying altcoins. These altcoins are bidding like crazy. And on a rate of change basis, they're rising much faster than Bitcoin. I think this cycle could be a little bit different in that because

we're having institutional flows directly into Bitcoin and not something like Cardano or Polkadot or something else, I think that Bitcoin could still outperform a large majority of altcoins. There will still be altcoins that bid very significantly. And for investors who have been taking advantage of some of the trends that are taking place, like Injective Protocol, INJ, has basically doubled over the course of the last three weeks. Look at Render, look at Lido, look at Solana even. You could basically throw something at the wall and it's gone up considerably over the course of the past two weeks. And so I think that Bitcoin dominance has given back some of those gains over the past several weeks. I've been a little bit surprised by that. But I think one of

the things that I say is you want to invest in Bitcoin, don't necessarily trade it. And then you want to trade altcoins, you don't necessarily want to invest in them. Because aside from Dogecoin, no other cryptocurrency has made new all-time highs relative to Bitcoin. I think TRX did at some point or something, and I was shocked to see it. Or I can't remember what the metric was. But yes, you're right. I mean, it was literally nothing beats Bitcoin through the entire cycle, except for something brand new that never then does it. People always ask me, what's going to be the best performing altcoin of the next cycle?

And my answer is always some shit that doesn't exist yet or that I've never heard of. It's really something that you've been holding for seven years that is the best performing asset because there's so many people looking to sell once they hit those higher prices. Look, crypto is so narrative driven in terms of price dynamics. And so it's always going to be the new kid on the block, the shiny toy that's going to get the most attention, the most hype and the most narrative built around it. So you can kind of apply that and say, okay, Arbitrum is probably going to do fairly well. You can look at something like Optimism. I literally know nothing about these protocols, but just simply based on the fact that they've come out over the course of the new bear market, these are probably going to perform pretty well if we do enter a sustained bull market,

broadly speaking. Someone asked, how's the Bitcoin hash rate doing? I think it just made another new all-time high again this week or something, which I think it never stops. I think it's fair to say that the fundamentals underlying Bitcoin are the strongest that they've ever been. So true. I posted a chart yesterday on my Twitter. I'm trying to pull it up here. I tweet so much. Okay, here it is. I got it. So you can pull this up here. I tweeted, want to hear a joke, the China mining ban. And so, you know, this is Bitcoin's network cash rate overlaid on top of the price of Bitcoin. You can see we've

basically gone vertical since, you know, the middle of 2021. Just grinding absolutely higher and higher as you know, so many miners have been coming onto the network as as you know, these institutions from, you know, whether we're talking about Riot or, you know, Marathon or, you know, CLSK, CleanSpark, Cypher. There's so many of these different companies who are coming online and just plugging in a bunch of mining capacity. And that's totally being reflected in hash rate.

So this is at all-time highs by a significant, significant margin. That looks like the Great Depression on the Dow Jones chart. Which when you say it really does. Like when you zoom out and you see like, and you're like up into the right only. But I think when you even look at that chart or look at the Dow Jones chart, I'm talking about now I want to bring it up. I love this chart, but

just for a laugh. But when you look at these, it really does tell you that guys don't focus on what price target we're giving or what's going to happen the minute of the ETF news, because none of it matters, because up and to the right is the only way that Bitcoin is probably going to be. Here's the Dow Jones chart with every quote unquote disaster that's ever happened in history. I pointed them out. You can see that literally the hash rate looks like the Great Depression on the way to parabolic gains. I always laugh at COVID, which ended as a green candle that year. This was like the massive downtick, the Dow Jones that year, and it actually ended up green. But I do think, I think you would agree, but I think that that's, you know, the sentiment here is whether it's 150, 175, 250, it's going to probably go up and then there'll be a massive correction.

And then next time we'll be talking about 300 and 400 and 500, four years later. Agreed. Yeah, exactly. The one thing that maybe last thing I'll mention here, cause I know we're getting close on time is, um, 88 and a half percent of Bitcoin hasn't been moved in the past three months. So, you know, crazy, you know, go back three months ago, we were in, you, right? And 88.5% of Bitcoin hasn't been moved. So it hasn't moved to a new wallet. It hasn't been sold, nothing. So what is that telling us? And during that time, we've gone from 26,000 up to 35K. So we had a massive gain in the price of Bitcoin and 88.5% of investors did not sell. So what does that tell you about the conviction of Bitcoin investors right now and where they

think price is going and they're willing to act on that conviction? So if that doesn't get you bulled up, I don't know what will. Historical lows of Bitcoin on supply, historical highs of people not moving their Bitcoin and Bitcoin that hasn't moved, as you said, and that includes FTX and dropping below $16,000 and going to $69,000. Should show you. I was wrong. I'm trying to remember what the metric was. I wrote in a newsletter, but I think TRX and Doge had made like a higher USD price than previous cycle at some point, but I'm not looking at the chart. TRX has gotten nowhere close to beating Bitcoin. And someone in the comments said XRP has beaten Bitcoin. And I want to know what fell on their head. Because this is the XRP versus Bitcoin chart certainly

has not made any highs. But yeah, to your point, you need Elon Musk if you're going to make a new high against Bitcoin. And it's only going to be really tempo temporarily when you go on Saturday night live. Caleb, dude, this is awesome. First of all, everyone follow C-A-L-E-B-F-R-A-N-Z-E-N on X. I call it, I still say Twitter,

but I got myself there. Also, you have a amazing newsletter and a group of some sort, correct? Yeah. Just, I'm on Substack, cubicanalytics.substack.com.

I publish a free research every Saturday. So cubic analytics, cause I'm on Substack, cubicanalytics.substack.com. I publish free research every Saturday. So Cubic Analytics, because I cover macro, I cover the stock market, and I cover Bitcoin. So if anything I said resonated with you, or you're interested in hearing more about what I have to say, follow me on Twitter, of course, but definitely check me out on Substack. I have a free newsletter there. What he wanted to say was subscribe to Cubic Analytics or have fun staying poor. He couldn't say it, So I said it. Thank you so much, man. We'll do this again very soon. I can see in the comments. Everybody loved it. Really, really great. Thanks for having me on. Yeah. Anytime. All right. That was awesome. Nice to see a fresh face on here

who's not 65 years old and angry about everything, which is what we generally do on Mondays. Those guys aren't necessarily 65. They're younger. But yeah, it's good to get some bullish perspective, especially when on Mondays, it seems to be just a bear orgy, bear porn, as I like to call it. Really, really, really great. There's a little bit, very quick news I want to cook through, and then we're going to bring on Wick, of course. Coinbase ending support for Bitcoin SV. I don't think this really matters. I just think it's hilarious. So I obviously wanted to point it out that Craig Wright losing his listing, even of Bitcoin Satoshi's vision on Coinbase.

Coinbase made the point, we will list any asset. We want to not be a gatekeeper, but also forget Craig Wright. Kraken follows Coinbase's lead with plans to launch Layer 2 network. I think Coinbase really showed the way here with the release of Base, disrupting their own business with basically decentralized protocol, no token, of course, on Base. We saw that meme coin bald went nuts and Frentech now bringing a ton of TVL actually to Base. I think other exchanges are going to realize they need to do exactly the same thing. I don't know if you guys watched it, but you should. I wrote

about in the newsletter, the Simpsons covered NFTs. Really, really funny. And finally, this story just got to me. LHV Bank founder has 470 million worth of Ethereum, but lost his private key. Ray Mamas, founder of LHV Bank, told Estonian media last month that he's not made much effort to recover the funds, but is willing to pay someone again. I just wanted to point out, imagine being so rich. You're like, I lost $470 million. I might have to call someone to help. I don't know if it's worth my time. Absolutely crazy. But even the most sophisticated investors losing their coins. Now, guys, the moment you've all been waiting for. Of course, I tweeted yesterday. Anybody want to do some chart requests? Rick will take a look at them.

I've got Rick himself, the king of trading alpha here to join. How are you, man? Hey, Scott, how's it going? How are you doing this morning? Can't complain. It's Tuesday. It means we get to talk. We get to look at a bunch of charts. There's worse things in the world. Seeing a little bit of pullback on a lot of things at the moment. Very, very shallow, but seeing some pullback. Has anything changed for you? Yeah, I think early this morning I saw that the dollar is having a little bit of an uptick. Is that right? I haven't looked at it today, but yeah, I think that that is correct. I read it on Bloomberg. Yeah, it's a dollar scene pretty significant. Here you go right here. Here's the

dollar daily just rallying right back to the 50 MA after that big sort of drop two days ago. Oh, I'm not showing the right chart, am I? I'm literally showing a TRX chart while talking about DXY, but here it is. You can see the big kind of drop there rally, but this is kind of rallying right back to the lows of this little range it was in. So that doesn't concern me too much. It is. And I think that's a pivotal point right there. I think if we break any higher, we'll see some more weakness.

I think that really relieved a little bit of pressure whenever we broke through that pivotal level. So that's the only thing I can see, Scott. Besides that, I think the whole market has had a big run. So I don't think this is anything abnormal. You know, seeing some profit taking. I think people, I don't think a lot of people have been in the, it's been a while since we've been in the bull market. And even in a bull market, right, we have these 30% retraces in Bitcoin and things like that. So, yeah, the market's pulling back, but I don't see anything abnormal.

I'll tell you what, you want to jump into some salt? Yeah, man, let's do it. Bring your screen up. Okay. Let me present here. I have my own Solana chart here somewhere. I mean, this thing is resilience, man. I got mine here. Just absolutely. I almost bid 39 actually when it came down and then I was thinking, maybe we'll get a deeper retrace. Classic, uh, classic, uh, bear market thinking. Yeah, go ahead. Absolutely. Absolutely. Okay. So here is the weekly chart of soul. Okay. So, um, we obviously went through the bull market and this was stage four. Uh, one thing on stage four guys, whenever we go below what this is called the track line, um, and we go through it on red dots, a lot of times we'll have a squeeze shading, right? This is where your

volatility is built up, letting you know, an extreme move is coming. You're looking for an arrow for the direction. We have a breakout hour to the downside. Once this comes past the track line, I exit all long positions. Uh, well, I'm already exited all long positions. I don't get get in any more long positions, no matter if there's green dots or what, but we went through the stage four. Okay. Never, never buy a stage four ever, ever, ever. And then what I'm looking for after stage four is a basing pattern.

Okay. I don't take any longs in a basing pattern. I don't care if there's green dots, green bars. This is what I teach my audience. We never, ever take longs in this basing pattern after stage four. We do, uh, do though is look spacing pattern after stage four. What we do do though, is look for a resistance level to break. So you can see that this was the resistance. This was the support. Here's our base tagging the top, the bottom and the top. And then we're

looking for that breakout. Okay. We did get some green dots coming in here. Again, I just ignored this, but as we broke through this level, this should have been the first time that you entered a position because this is what we call our stage two breakouts. Okay. In trading the whole, the whole thing for me is identifying the stage two breakouts and riding those longs. Okay. That's what all our indicators are kind of joined to kind of catch, catch these moves. So, um, this is what I posted on your newsletter. We have caught this breakout, but then again, here is this last, uh, final boss. Let's call it the final boss. Okay. So for me, um, I was looking to add right here, which I did.

And then again, I'm looking to add, once we break through this level, there's no point for me adding here. Um, I did take some profits off of my swing trades, but on my investment book, I'm still in this long here. I was trying to see if we could pull back to this level and then have a good reaction, but it looks like Saul's holding up pretty strong. It's, it's not even retracing, uh, yet, which is interesting because I think a lot of the staking also got released as well. And I was worried that we were going to have a little bit of a pullback. And that's why I thought we might target these levels, but even, to the market, Sol is staying pretty strong. So in my opinion, once we break through this level, I think that's really the moment that

we get into our really pinnacle, the pinnacle of stage two. Okay. So this is what I'm watching as far as on a macro level for all you investors that are trying to invest in Sol, right? Not swing trade, but on these weekly charts, I look for investments. So now let's go ahead and let me pull up the four-hour chart because I know that there's a lot of people that like to swing trade these things. So here's the four-hour chart of Sol. And we've gone over this one before. As you can see, you have these squeezes, right? And I'm talking about this because we're currently now presenting a squeeze here. Again, what this tells us is that there's a lot of volatility bent up and an extreme move is about to come. We're going to wait for the breakout arrow. So again, left to right, if you see the squeeze shading, we had the red breakout arrow,, you know, all the way down to 21. It was about 11% drop.

And then we started printing these bees for bottom bottoms. Okay. We do not take long this year, but it does let us know that if we do get green dots starting, right, the trend is confirming that the bottom has been put in and we're entering that stage two. For me though, on this, right. The stage two would really start, right? Cause remember the basing pattern. We start above here. So we get green dots above here. Actually, this would be right,

right there, green dots above there. And I'm thinking about entering longs. Okay. But now we have this breakout arrow here again, another squeeze shading, right? And I'm already watching for green, green dots above this level. Squeeze shading lets me know, Hey, pay attention. We do get a breakout arrow. So this this was this was a good high probability setup but the real one starts when we break above here broke above retest it like we usually do green dot start this is our stage two okay we always enter longs in our stage two and you can go about it one of two ways you can either stay in it as long as the dots are green, which I use a lot of the times, especially when we go on parabolic moves.

Or you can simply just watch the track line, right, as kind of almost like a stop, right? So if you held on the green dots, you would have exited here on your stage three and waited for your continuation stage two. The squeeze shading, letting you know an extreme move is coming. It could possibly be that re-enter stage two, the squeeze shading, letting you know an extreme move is coming. It could possibly be that reenter stage two, boom, green breakout arrow on green dots stage two. Again, we're answering this. Okay. Now this one is a parabolic move. It is moving at a parabolic advance. So a lot of times on these parabolic advances, I'm simply just writing the dots up. Like I did on the Bitcoin weekly chart on the bull market, waiting for these green dots to end, right? And that's when you can tell that the

trend is starting to get weaker, time to take profit. And here's where the green dot ended. I did take profits here on my swing positions, I believe about right here, the green dots had ended, took off my position because I realized that this was an engulfing candle and the green dots had ended. And then we just wait, right? Boom, it goes into your stage three basing pattern again. And we're looking for the same move we did here, right? And boom, look what's happening. We're having this sweet shading.

So now what are we looking for? We're looking for green dots to happen again and a breakout arrow, okay? If that happens, it could be the catalyst that hopefully gets us past this resistance here or like, or as we called it on the weekly chart, the final boss. Okay. So that's it for soul guys. That's, that's kind of how I'm watching it. There's no long, long moves or long setups yet. Uh, but there might be a contrary as well. If this has a red

breakdown arrow, okay. Um, you should already be kind of taking a little bit of profit, right? If you hadn't right here, um, and kind of waiting to either redeploy and having a stop loss for the rest of your position. But if this has a breakout that arrow to the downside, then this would go from a stage three to a stage four downtrend. And remember what we do. We never buy stage four downtrends. Let's move on to some of the charts and some of the requests.

Unfortunately, when we do requests, a lot of people will tend to pick the assets that are making large moves, right? So there's no set up. That's always what happens. Right, exactly. So very great charts you guys picked. However, it's very hard to chart them because the moves have already happened. So let's talk about the moves that happened. And let's talk about what you might do if you're stuck in in these positions Which most likely a lot of your followers are so again, right here is your Stage one basing and I've defined it with this this line at the top here

You do start to see again your bottoming bees letting you know that a bottom has been put in look for some green dots You do end up getting green dots. This is a good sign But again, we're not past that stage one basing level and eventually we do break above it and we for some green dots. We do end up getting green dots. This is a good sign, but again, we're not past that stage one basing level. And eventually we do break above it and we do have green dots. It goes into a parabolic move. And what do we do on parabolic moves? We wait for those green dots to end. So as you can see, the green dots have not ended and they've kept a, they

have not kept me in this move. I wish I was in this move. I'm not going to lie and say I am, but the green dots have not ended yet. And this still looks pretty strong relative to the market, right? A lot of other assets are losing green dots. So I do like inject still. And I did also draw this little support zone here. I think that this would also be a good area if you don't have our dots, right? To look out for this area here. And if it does break below here, you're most likely in a stage four as well. Uh, but for me, if I wasn't this move again, I'm waiting for these green

dots to end and I'm most likely taking either half my position off the table and raising my stops or I'm exiting the position completely another way to play these parabolic moves. If you have more risk tolerance, it's a simply just watch the track line as a stop. Okay. And this will continue going higher. This, this forces the position to, to to to perform or get taken out okay so that's three ways you can

kind of uh manage your position so now let's move on to the next one next one is rune okay i thought injective by the way just real quick injector showing so much strength that it never even gave the retrace this was actually a setup that i shared. I mean, I've been in Injective the entire time, but I actually, well, I've been in it for literally ever. So way underwater from down here, but I averaged down a bunch below. I have a big believer, actually, Injective. I never talk about these things on here,

but I own a lot of Injective. And I sold some kind of up in here, but I was looking for a retest of the top of this range around $9, $9.90, $10. It just never came down. It may though. I would still be bidding that area personally. Well, congratulations, Scott. Maybe I missed that on your newsletter. I wish I would have seen it because wow, what a move. But you're absolutely right. There's been no pullback at all. So yeah, if you guys are in Inject, I don't think it's time to take profits. Again, if you do have our indicators, just wait for that dot to end, right? Because what the dots are, what these green dots are, is they're simply telling you the macro trend. Okay. So you've got

the macro trend, sorry, the micro trend on the green dots. That's why they hit so early. That's what we get such an early signal on the trend. When the green bars go, when the bars go green, that's your macro trends. You've got the macro and the micro. So that's what you're basically looking at. That's why I say when these green dots end, it's letting you know that the trend, it's the first signal that the trend is starting to weaken. So why stay in that move? Okay. Let's head over and look at Rune. Somebody asked about Rune. Again, another chart that's hard because there's no setup here, but per se, but they're probably stuck in this position. Again, you got that's hard because there's no setup here, but per se, but they're probably stuck in this position.

Again, you got your red dots. You kind of go into your stage one basing. You start printing some Bs with some deviations lower. And what do we do? We look for green dots after the Bs. Again, this is on the daily charts. We see green dots starting, breaks above our track line. When we have green dots above our track line,

you have two big high confirmations that this is a high probability setup. So for me, it would not be on the green dot. It would be on the second green dot that, that, that the bar breaks above this track line of ours. And here you're in your long position. For those of you that are still in the long position, um, this isn't quite a parabolic move to me. It definitely is a stage two move. So yes, you could watch the green dots. They have not ended, or I actually drew this little, um, support for me. If I didn't have any of our indicators, I would probably exit the position here. If we had a deviation beneath this, because we're either then in stage three basing or in a stage four downtrend, neither of them, then you want to get stuck in just waiting and hoping and praying.

So yeah, for this move guys, I think this still looks good, even though this is a little bit of an engulfing candle down. I think this is a really good logical place to pull back to. So this is what I would watch for Rune. Moving, do you have any thoughts on that, Scott? I tend to move and I forget that- Yeah, it's good. No, you're good. I like it. Keep cooking.

Okay, cool. So Renda, so this actually, I'm actually familiar with this chart because I have a really good buddy from South Africa, Vinny. Some of you guys might know Vinny, but I help Vinny out a lot. And he's in obviously Seoul. And then I think Renda is a project that is on Seoul. So he is in this move and we are watching this. But just like I told him, this level here, I really want to see a break above this level here. Another nugget of advice I can give the audience is when you have these support,

when you have these resistance levels, the further back the resistance starts from um the less um the less value i kind of kind of place on it right so i am kind of looking at these levels here as opposed to this little deviation past our zone okay once we break past this zone i think that's your next time to add for me uh i would have already taken profits on this thing as you can see here for me this is where I would have already taken profits on this thing. As you can see here for me, this is where I told, um, told Vinnie here that this is the stage one basing break above it. We have green dots, call you in new position. This one was more volatile. The

dots did end there, caught them back. Okay. So it was a very hard one to catch, but I think once we break past this resistance level that these will be, um, uh these will be, you can really carry this on the dots, I believe. I think that this is going to be a very, very nice breakout. In fact, I'm looking to enter this position myself as well. So that's Renda for you guys. One that really hasn't broken out yet, in my opinion. I think that we're still waiting for this, right?

And I think they just had an announcement with Solana. I think that now Renda is on Solana as of last week or something. And obviously there's the Solana narrative. So a lot of... Okay. Yeah. So that's exactly what he was telling me. It's on Solana. Yeah, exactly. One of the things I want to tell the audience too, though, is that we're kind of beholden to what Bitcoin does, right? Because the whole framework of the crypto space right now is moving because obviously we've got these ETFs coming and you know right behind them is the halving so you there's many reasons to think that there will be institutional money coming in and I think a lot of smaller funds have probably

entered their positions I know Michael Saylor has been been buying and he's happy now but we really are waiting to see what happens with those approvals. Right. And we almost we might get a denial of the first approval or whatever. So everything's kind of beholden to Bitcoin. Right. And if Bitcoin does fly, you'll see capital going into Bitcoin. Bitcoin will go higher. And then as soon as it starts to kind of base a little bit, that's when you'll see the capital flow back into your into your mid and lower cap coins. So all of these coins that you guys are asking me about, it really is beholden to Bitcoin. So even though you guys didn't ask about it, let's review the Bitcoin chart one more time. And then we can close off. How about that, Scott? Yeah, perfect. actually extend it for you guys. Okay. So looking at the chart here, guys, we have the weekly chart

of Bitcoin and we're right here, but let's go left to right. For those of you that haven't heard me go over this chart, I go over it a lot, but as you can see here, here is our squeeze shading. Again, what does squeeze shadings do for me? It really actually lets me know that we're in this 90, this base from, from 19 and 20. And you can see the base started quite a bit. There's our bottom indicator. There's another one here, green dots, boom. But this was the base that we started. Okay.

Before the bull market. Okay. And I had this drawn this whole time. I'm waiting for a setup. All of a sudden you see the squeeze shading. Oh my goodness. A lot of volatility has been built up. Could this be the start of the bull market?

We get the green arrow, the dots above the track line. We have momentum on our side, the micro trend, the macro trend, we're in business. You don't stop this until the green dots stop because this is a parabolic move. Green dots are going all the way. When do they stop? When do they stop? They stop right here. Okay. We actually had two cycles here, in my opinion. Here was your stage two. Here was your stage three. Go into your little stage four, little bear market here. Start a little stage one base. Okay, in the base, we're looking for green dots to start again. Boom, they start again.

Oh, and look what happens again. We have that shading that lets us know that stage two might start. Boom, starts again. And what do we have? I think we lost dots right here. This is a parabolic move out of your position. And you start your stage four downtrend. And what happens when we're below the track line?

We enter no long positions, even if we get a green dot. Okay, we stay out of stage four. Stage four went on for quite a while. We started basing right here. And oh, look, we've got a little bottoming indicators to let us know that green dots would be nice. Got a green dot right afterwards. Scott, this is your stage two uptrend. Went into a stage three basing after we caught that nice move, which I did catch this move. Stage three basing, probably because I watch

Bitcoin probably the most, right? Because everything's beholden to it. But here's your stage three basing. Over here, I was telling my audience that if you're in not investment positions, try think of taking half profit and raising your stops. Okay. That's what I did on my swing trades. And what do we have? Right after we break out of this stage three basing, we're in stage two again, and we were lucky enough to get a breakout arrow. What from? From the squeeze shading. So using these all together, right? You're putting volatility setups, you're putting micro trend setups, macro trend setups, and with the track line momentum on your side, in your favor, all different types of setups. And I think the problem that most people do is they add a lot

of indicators onto their chart. They all tell them a confluence of one type of trading style. Okay. So all these trading styles is what we're using. We're now in stage two. Problem is, is that here is your resistance that we've had up since last year. And we're trying to get through it. Very ironic that we're at this resistance, just basing as we're trying to get that ETF approval. Okay. So for everyone saying that, you know, that this isn't a bull market, it is a bull market. And if we get that ETF approval, you're really going to see this thing go into a little parabolic move. And what do we do, Scott, when you have a parabolic move? You ride it. You ride it to the red dots. You ride it to the red dots. And if you like- I'm learning, guys. Until the green dots end, just like they did over here and over here at the top. I'll be doing the same thing in this bull market. But remember, until we get that parabolic advance, that is when I'm watching for those green dots to end. So let's see what happens here. All those other charts are beholden to what happens with the ETF approval in the short term. But in the long term, Scott, I think we're already in the bull market. And we're just simply going to either pull back to that level here in a

worst case scenario base, and then start at sometime near the halving, which is right here. Interesting. It seems like when you look at all those charts, and I was looking at charts all morning as well, it seems like we just kind of had our move. And now it's a little harder to find entries at this exact moment. Like you had Solana go, then you had sort of all these layer ones follow. And now it feels like we've gotten the big move. It doesn't mean it's over, but very, very difficult for me when I was scanning charts this morning to find anything I would want to jump in right now. Absolutely. And you know, from an

investment perspective, right? If these guys are looking at the charts themselves, right? And I've worked with a lot of funds. That's what I kind of do, especially with macro funds, because they tend to not, you know, be so technically savvy, right? So they look for technicians to come in and confirm their frameworks. So what they're going to be looking for here, right, is they see this happening, and they see there's two events, right? They see that obviously you have the ETF approval and the halving. So there's two opportunities to kind of enter in. So they probably entered some positions and they're waiting to enter more positions on both of those two events. Okay. Again, they're looking at the same thing that I'm most likely looking at, which is that if we have an ETF rejection, you know, so what? So we pull back into this, this basing right

here that we were before. Right. And then we wait for the halving either just before to sometime after is when we break out. So this is very comfortable for me, Scott. Unless we actually go to war, the US kind of enters the war and there's like Armageddon. I'm pretty comfortable in the crypto framework right now and I'm staying bullish. Yeah, I agree. Just I think there's these moments where you just kind of wait for it to give you some sort of setup and I'm waiting at the moment. Me too. Not that I'm lighting things, but I think

we just kind of had our big first move here and maybe time to wait a little while, see what it gives us. Absolutely. Absolutely. And Scott, so that's all I have for you. And for those listening, if you want to follow me, it's Zero zero hedge underscore on Twitter. And if you do like our indicators here, look at Scott's link in the comments or the descriptions, we are running a sale. I'm going to be ending the sale pretty soon, guys, because we don't have sales very often. In fact, we haven't had it for a while and we do have Black Friday coming up, right? So I can't keep the sale going on right now. If you want to grab a sale real quick, we do have two months off. Go to Scott's comments and you can find that right away. But that's all I got for you guys today, Scott. Yeah. You guys will notice even in the newsletter

now, it's hard to teach a old dog new tricks, obviously. So I have my strategies when I look at charts, but I've found myself now, A, either just screening things with the indicator first, just to give a very quick look. I go through the one chart and click over and over. Oh, there's some green dots. There's a green arrow. There's the track line. And then using it in confluence with my own charts. Or when I see something on my own chart that I naturally go and I go over there and make sure there's not a glaring red dot or arrow or something that's going to make me feel like I'm on the wrong side of the trade. For my followers listening, we'll get Scott converted here. Every time I spend more time

with him, he's more and more of a believer here. So we'll get him converted. And before you know it, we'll have Scott posting charts, in my opinion. You have. I had an Elrond chart in the newsletter today. But yeah, guys, I got to go. I got to run and get ready for Twitter Spaces. Rick, thank you so much, guys. Thank you so much, man. That's all we got for today. I will be back tomorrow, of course, guys,

9 a.m. Eastern Standard Time and on Twitter Spaces at 10.15. Thank you very much. Always a pleasure. I'm enjoying these Tuesdays, Rick, man. Thanks, guys. Have a great day. See you tomorrow. Bye.

Cheers. Let's go. Tuesdays, Wakeman. Thanks, guys. Have a great day. See you tomorrow. Bye.