The Young Turks - Part 12 TYT Live: Election Day 2020

Episode Date: November 4, 2020

Election Day Part 12: Cenk Uygur, John Iadarola, Nando Vila, and Michael Shure TYT is Progressive Headquarters on Election Day. We’ll be tracking the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and key progressive races around the country featuring a rotating panel of guests. Stay tuned for exit polls, state returns, down-ballot races, and more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You're listening to The Young Turks, the online news show. Make sure to follow and rate our show with not one, not two, not three, not four, but five stars. You're awesome. Thank you. On July 18th, get excited. This is big! For the summer's biggest adventure. I think I just smurf my pants.

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Hey, Nando, good to see you. There's our four box. It looks good. Michael is not only in a limo, but he's a limo driver, I see. That's all I work, 12 hours away. He's driving a British limo, I believe, actually. Yeah, just don't go past the 12 hours, Michael. We'll have issues. Okay, so guys, I want to break down the state of the election right now because in my one hour break down a lot of scenarios I think that could give you clarity.

And then I want to dive into some of the particular congressional elections as well. First, let me just say, I'm not sure we set it on air yet. Corey Bush is won and so she will be the 10th Justice Democrat to go to Congress. The reason we're not making as big a deal out of it tonight was because it was nearly assured after her primary win. It's a very, very blue district. So Jamal Bowman and Cory Bush win as expected tonight. We'll check back into the car.

He's been racing a little bit because she's neck and neck and that one's really tight. Let me give just one shout out here to someone on super chat. Floyd Clark said to hell with the corporate media and what they think, go on a warpath already. But Floyd, maybe we'll talk more about this in the last couple of hours of the coverage. But it's not as simple as that. Otherwise, I love war pass. I'm literally named war. Jank in Turkish means war.

And so I'm not sure that surprises any of you. But if you do, the rest of the media bans you. Just flat out bans you. It doesn't, they're not listening to whether you're right or wrong. They're not listening to whether you're factual or not factual. They're not, they don't care whether you're logical or not logical. As soon as they hear a decibel level go up a little bit, or are you attacking a Republican very strong? That's it.

They're done with you. That's it. Full ban. We also have a call. Okay, yes, calls are most important. What do you got you? So according to the New York Times, Joe Biden has won Minnesota right now with 82% of the vote. He's up 54 44.

Yes, so that's going to get into my different scenarios here. But Floyd, thank you for using super chat. Everybody, all of you out there, we got nothing but love for you guys. I love that you're with us all night long. And not just for the passion on the progress and the progressive perspective, but for the analysis to hit the join button below. If you're watching on YouTube to become a member, it makes all difference in the world. And if you're watching anywhere else, t.com slash join. All right.

And last two hours tonight will be for just the member. So important to you guys join so you get those last two hours. We'll get to those in a little bit. But here, let me take you through the map, okay? And my summary here is Biden is very likely to win, and a Trump win is difficult, not impossible, but very difficult. And as a big-ish win is still possible for Joe Biden, he can still get over 300 electoral votes. So let's start there and let's work our way towards a Trump win, but only in analysis, not in reality, I hope. Okay, so if now that Minnesota is definitely Biden and Ohio is definitely, and Iowa are definitely Trump, we can get rid of those.

And so here's what a big win looks like for Biden. He wins Pennsylvania, very possible. He wins Arizona very likely. Georgia now apparently more likely than not, as John, Ben and the others broke down for you in the last hour. He wins Nebraska second, which is again more likely. He wins Wisconsin, which is very likely. And he wins Michigan, which is likely. So I just told you all the states that are likely to go to Biden.

And that would be a 307-231 win. Pretty good, pretty good, and pretty possible. Now here's the scenario- We also have another call. Oh, okay, most important, go ahead, John. LA Times is calling Texas for Trump. Ah, well, this late, okay, we'll take it. So the fact that it's late is theoretically a good sign elsewhere, but there isn't much left

in elsewhere. So, and it's certainly when Trump won Florida, I didn't think, and I don't think any reasonable personal thought that Biden had any chance of winning Texas. So I'd already written that off in my mind a long time ago. Here's a scenario where you get to 269, 269. Now, it's possible. Biden wins, well, you see, but it's not, I'm not, I don't want you to worry about 269, because I'm gonna tell you something after that.

But Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Arizona, enormously possible. By the way, Arizona or Georgia, either one. Then at that point, it sounds like 2690, no, but at that point, all you have to do is win either one district in Maine or one district in Nebraska, and Biden wins the election, because you just got to get to 270, right? And so that should be relatively easy. I guess at this point, Michigan is the most in doubt out of Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Okay. And now finally, for Trump to win, he's got to win all of the above. He's got to win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and then on top of that, he's got to win either Arizona or Michigan.

So it's still very unlikely. He's got to sweep everything going forward in states he is not winning, even with the limited vote information that we have. So I wanted to get that out there so you guys understand where we are currently right now and why I'm even more optimistic than when I last left you where I thought Biden was going to win, but it was going to be close. Let me start by going to Michael. Michael, what's your take on that and where that will then land? Do you think it lands closer to the middle, or do you think Biden actually gets about 300? I mean, I think it lands probably closer to the middle. I, you know, these polling realities are hitting home now that yes, it's it's easy to look at the numbers that are coming in,

the reverse count, and I say the reverse count because it's different than the way Florida came in where they did the today's votes and then they went to the absentee ballots. I think that when you, I'm sorry, in reverse, they did the absentee ballots and went to the today's votes. These upper Midwest states and Pennsylvania where I am now, those states do it in a different order. So you're starting to see good numbers for Trump, but that's because they haven't counted the absentee ballots. And just so you know, there are over a million absentee ballots in Pennsylvania, and they're not all done coming in. So that still is. Yeah. Can I throw in a call, at least according to Decision Desk HQ? Are we counting Decision Desk HQ? Yeah, sure. We are. Okay.

They're calling that Joe Biden will win Nebraska's second district. Yes. Now that's important for two reasons. one that puts them over 269 in this scenario I just laid out for you that if he's really won that at that point, all he's got to do is bring home Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, or Georgia. Yeah, Georgia changes the game entirely because he can lose two out of the three upper Midwest states if he gets Georgia. And presuming he does win Arizona, which I think has been called in some places already. One other thing to point out, and this is sort of throwing cold water on things a little bit, is that I would keep your eyes on Nevada. I'm not as as bullish on Nevada right now as I would have been. That's not a ton of a ton of electoral votes. And if you're if you're sort of

blue belt through the the upper Midwest works, it doesn't matter. But in these close scenarios, It's one to keep an eye on. We sort of have it figured in for Biden, but it's not entirely safe to do that, although I do think he's going to win. It's not entirely safe to do that just yet. So I think your scenario is right. I am very calm about this right now. I don't see a reason for craziness. The president is going to be making remarks shortly. He's teased that on Twitter. He says that he has won and that they're going to try and steal the election over the next couple of days. He said, You know, he also, you know, he misspelled polls, of course, P-O-L-E-S. But the whole notion here is they're going to try and gain the system now for the next few days. And I just spoke to a commissioner with the Philadelphia City Commission here who was telling me that they're going to be counting votes. They count 10,000 votes an hour. And there are a lot of votes to count. So that's going to be over the course of quite a while that they that they're going to be counting votes here in Pennsylvania.

And this could be the state that decides it, too. Yeah, so well, that gets us into the danger zone we were all worried about, which is Biden wins, but Trump doesn't concede and starts to talk about how they're stealing the election. Like, so for the last, you know, 12 hours or so, we've been living in our own bubble of reality. But we have to remember that soon the non-real bubble is going to push back. And so it's been a weird interregnum here where since Trump wasn't on TV and Fox News wasn't, didn't have their Tucker Carlson's, Lauren Grims, et cetera, screaming into the ether about hoax, forgery, steel, Russia gate, theft, stop counting, right? Since at least I being on air was not exposed to that, which we lived in a comfortable little

reality for a second. Even when Biden looked like he was in bad shape, it didn't, that didn't disrupt reality. That was just numbers that were bad for Biden. And if he had lost, we all would have been like, okay, he lost. And that sucks and we're mad, et cetera. But here comes the non-real world again. And if Trump gives a speech tonight saying, I won and everything else is theft, Oh boy. So now begins the period of time where the right wing begins to agitate to say the least

and see what kind of damage they can do. And that's why a Biden blowout was really important so that we avoided the right wing madness and potential violence. So. And Jenkins, it's possible if he wins, if he wins those states, if he wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, if he, if Georgia stays turned in that direction, he wins Nevada and he wins Arizona, that's a big Biden win. Yeah, as I explained, that's exactly the math that I laid out where he gets a 307. And that's a relatively big win, but it wasn't decisive enough on election night where when Trump says they stole it, everybody else goes, yeah, you got to go home.

Look, weirdo loser, you gotta go home. Stop talking, right? And so who would say that? Jane, very quickly. It's a lot like 2018 when we were doing this, right? We, you know, every, it was a decisive win. The Democrats won the House in 2018. But because of the way Florida didn't work out at that time with, with their, you know, when you saw that Ron DeSantis beat Andrew Gillum and then you also saw the Bill Nelson lost to Rick Scott, it seemed like, oh, This isn't going very well. Then Beto O'Rourke lost to Ted Cruz. But when you looked at it on the whole of it, it was a really great night for Democrats that night. That's sort of what this has the feeling of being.

That it's not exactly how you thought, but the way that it was rolled out, the beginning of the movie was really disappointed. So let me start with Nando on this one, and then we'll go around. What happens within the Republican Party? If, you know, the non-insane people, and by that I don't mean non-bad guys. I mean, people like Mitch McConnell and Lindsay Graham who are terrible people, but they're not insane.

If they know that Trump has lost, but Trump is saying, no, I haven't lost, they stole it. What does McConnell and Graham do? What does the Republican Party do? Do they go all in and go, yeah, that's right. They stole it. That's it. everybody get in the streets, that's it. We're gonna take it to the courts.

Or do they tell Trump, shut up, you gotta go. I don't know the answer to that. I have no idea what the answer is. Nando, you take the first shot. Well, when McConnell sort of blocked the second round of stimulus, I assumed it was because he knew Trump was toast in the election. And he was actually pretty relieved to be rid of him on some way. And that he knew that he could block any sort of meaningful reform from a Biden administration.

and, you know, play his luck in 2022 to retake whatever losses they, they sustained in this election. But, you know, with the Republican Party, I just don't think I can, I can safely assume any good faith or any sort of higher civic virtue. I mean, they stole it in 2000. It was obviously a much closer election, but it's been also been 20 years. And in those 20 years, the Republican Party has become much more brazen than they even were back then. And so I think someone like McConnell like has no morals and will kind of wait and see. I think you'll take a wait and see approach to see if like Republican state legislatures in places like, you know, Pennsylvania or whatever, like start playing ball. And they since they can get away with it, I think they'll go with it.

But I don't think they're gonna go to the mattresses for Trump. I think that they know that a Biden, I don't think they feel that threatened by a Biden presidency. I think they feel confident being able to block any meaning. full sort of redistributive policies, which is what they really care about. And they can take their chances in 2022 and then 2024 and beyond. Michael, what's your take? What do you think the Republican leadership does if they're pretty sure? No, no, they're absolutely sure that Biden has won, but they think they might be able to get away with it, but they're not sure. And Trump is definitely trying to get away with taking

it. What do you think they do? I, you know, look, tonight proved that the Trump brand isn't as toxic to so many of these people as my predictive analysis thought that it would prove tonight. You have senators winning re-election in states that you didn't think they would win reelection. You have members of Congress. Now, the Democrats are going to expand their lead, but not to the levels I thought they would have expanded their lead. So, you know, so there are definitely going to be people that come to the president's side in this battle. It's going to be very difficult in some places. I mean, here in Pennsylvania, the Pennsylvania court made a ruling that ballots could be counted if they came in after election day.

They, the U.S. Supreme Court upheld it. It was a 5-3 that it was upheld by the Supreme Court because Conan Barrett wasn't there yet or she hadn't been there long enough to have heard the case. So I do think you're going to see more Republicans stick by the president in this case than you ordinarily would have if if the president had this stink on them that they were running from. Clearly it hasn't heard in down ballot races thus far tonight and I think that makes a big difference. All right, now I got to ask the question. All right, then what's their percent of chance of being able to steal it? But before I get to John on that, I want you guys to understand if it indicates that Donald Trump has actually won Pennsylvania, which

Right now, that is not the case. None of these are the case. But if it if it turns out he has won Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona or Michigan, and he won the election, that's not stealing it. That's just winning the election. And as much as I want Democrats to be super tough fighters, I don't want them to lie. And I die and I want them to believe in and carry out and live in a democracy as odious and unthinkable as a second Trump turn. term would be. And I literally have not even thought about it. Maybe we'll do that a little bit later tonight too. But I'm not talking about what if Trump wins. I'm talking about what if it is absolutely clear that he did not win, he's or absolutely clear enough. And he says, no, I won, which is what he's threatening to do right now. You know, let's, John, let me start with you. What do you think happens next? Yeah, really fast I'll add that New York Times is also called Texas for Trump. So that's unfortunate, really would have loved that country, that state that I lived in for a number of years of foot, but unfortunately it's not going to

happen. In terms of what will they do, what will Mitch McConnell do, what will all the other Republicans do, I don't see almost any reason to believe they will do anything other than that which has a chance of getting them more power. I try, like I look back and I try to find what are the places where they, where Trump has gone too far for them. And I can sort of find one, about six months ago when he sort of hinted that he might want to postpone the election, a lot of Republicans said, no, we're not going to do that. And other than that, I think that's about it. Everything else he's done, no matter how crazy, they will either go along with or pretend that they haven't seen the tweet. And the thing is, the reason for that

is there used to either be or seem to be a cost for doing things. You would say, sure, they might do that, but it'll cost them in some way. Even with Amy Coney Barrett, we were talking about how that's going to cost them in the next election, I don't think anything costs anything anymore. I think that Mitch McConnell can go along with trying to steal it, and either they steal it, in which case, chiching, they've got the White House, or they don't. Who cares? He's so obviously hypocritical, so obviously doesn't care about whether people live or die. He just got reelected, he doesn't care. I don't think there's a cost to literally anything. I don't think you can be shamed. I think that they understand that their base wants

them to wield power. And if they try to do that, then that's enough for them, that's it. So I think they'll do whatever they think gives them the best chance of maintaining their grip on power. So now back to Nando. Well, if that's the case, what kind of madness should we expect starting in T-minus 3, 2,1, right after Trump speaks? Well, I think that you're broadly seeing, we're probably probably going to see more or less what happened in Florida in 2000, just a little bit more crazy, right?

Mostly because Trump is crazier and more willing to go there than even George W. Bush was that the Republican Party writ large is crazier and willing to go there more than the Republican Party was in 2000. I think we're going to see tons of uncertainty because I think this time we will see slightly more resistance from Democrats. certainly rank and file Democrats, mostly because George Joe Bush in 2000 was kind of an unknown quantity. He was just a Texas governor. He wasn't president for four years, the way Trump has. And he didn't generate the kind of rejection that Trump has in four years from Democratic base. So we will see much more militant resistance from the Democrats, in which case we'll see, you know, some very chaotic times. I mean, I have no doubt that the Republicans are prepared for some sort of judicial challenge.

I mean, the Brett Kavanaugh opinion last week was just absolutely brazen. And the fact that three of the Supreme Court justices worked on the George W. Bush Al Gore case in 2000, like gives the game away. The question will be how willing to fight will the Democrats be? They didn't fight in 2000, not that much. they didn't fight Amy Coney Barrett's confirmation, how much will they be willing to fight a brazen stealing of the election by the Republicans? I don't know. I don't have much faith in them. I think that Democrats are still trying to play toward the reasonable arrest referee in the sky that doesn't exist, you know, who's kind of legislating points of like, oh, you're being

reasonable right now. You get points that, you know, are going to get rewarded two years down the line in the next election. No one remembers the next election. You don't get points for those anymore, if you ever did, really. The Republicans have understood that cheat code, that they don't have to be reasonable, that they don't get penalized in the polls for it. And the Democrats are still playing that game. So the question is, will they be willing to shed that? I don't know. I mean, but I do think that the rank and file will revolt in ways that are that are unprecedented. So guys, one more thing before I get into more specific races. And I want to pick up the conversation again a little bit later in terms of what's coming next, whether it's militias or Supreme Court

or whatever it might be. But look, if you, we've been looking at it all night from the point of view of reality, as I said earlier. If you look at it from the point of view of me think Trump win, me not care about anything, and then you look at the numbers as they currently stand, oh boy, because if you're a Magadood And you're seeing Georgia has 87% reporting and Trump has a five point lead, but New York Times is saying that there's a 62% chance Biden's going to win. Oh, they'll never believe that. They'll never believe that. So if it turns out the votes come in and Georgia goes to Biden, as is apparently likely, they'll say no, no way. That was stolen, right? Okay, now let's move on. Wisconsin, 76% report. Trump has a four point lead, he's almost certainly not going to hold on to that.

Bill Begg, no way, stolen. Pennsylvania, he's got a 15 point lead with two-thirds of the vote in already. Now the mail-in votes coming, it'll likely reverse it. That one I'm not as sure about, right? But let's say it does reverse it. No way Maga believes it. And you go down the list, Michigan, same thing, he's got a nine-point lead with 60% reporting. They're not going to believe it.

And I'm not sure they're even cognitively able to understand the concept of mail-in votes and that they didn't come in after the election, that they came in before the election and they're counted after the election. Like, I don't, I'm not sure they understand that concept. So, or they care to understand that concept. So we might have a lot of trouble headed down the pike. I'm not trying to scare you, I was hoping that none of this was going to happen. I was hoping that the polling was right.

There was going to be a blowout enough that we wouldn't be in this netherworld, in this purgatory, right, where we think we're going to come out on the better side of it. And in a lot of ways, we have good reason to believe that. But the other side now thinks, no way, we already won, we already won, bah. So this is the point where they try to call the game. at the end of the third quarter. Which again, thankfully at least we were warned. Like no one has ever been more warned about like a scheme or a plot than we have been about this.

We've been warned so much that, you know, people on CNN and MSNBC are mostly doing the right thing even because they've been so warned that you can't pretend to not understand what's going on. But we could all understand it, but MAG is not going to understand it. Yeah, no, no, but what they understand is that those votes bad because they equal Trump not win. I mean, that's it. It doesn't, nothing else matters. They don't care. It's not like we need to convince them that those votes are valid, that they were in fact cast before day. Like, they don't care about any of that. They don't want the votes. It's not that they don't trust the votes, they don't want the votes. They don't care about

democracy. Like we, we fundamentally believe that we can fight and win in a democracy, but they don't think that they can, so they don't want it. They think that democracy. They think that democracy is bad. They think that democracy gives power to bad, immoral, horrible, non-white people. That's what they think, fundamentally. They will play along to some extent because they sort of have to. But that's why more and more Republican politicians are openly coming out against so much of what makes up a democracy. Because they know there's no cost to that.

Their voters hate democracy, they don't want that. They want authoritarian strong man that's gonna own the libs and give them whatever they want, which is mostly the owning of the lips. That's it, that's literally all you need to know about American politics, I think. Yeah, all right, so we're going to talk about the potential reckoning, and then we've got to give you important updates on where things are. Nothing's been called, but on important Senate races like Susan Collins, and important progressive races like Cara Eastman.

So stay right here, we'll be right back. All right, back on Young Turks, election coverage, Hank Uger, John Iarola, Nando, available with you. guys. So first thing I'm going to do is I'm going to run down a number of the Senate and congressional races that we've been tracking. And then we'll talk about back to the presidential elections. So Montana, there was a hope that Steve Bullock, who was the governor of Montana, and a Democrat, he briefly ran for president, if you remember, of course you don't. No one does. He was hoped that he could pull it out.

Well, now with 79% reporting, he's losing 5347. So not a great sign there, but the election hasn't been called. And as always, you cannot apply normal rules of election nights to this night because no one has any idea what percentage are the mailing votes. All right, so in North Carolina, Tom Tillis versus Keats. Cal Cunningham, there we had a lot of hope. I thought Cunningham was going to win. Right now, it stands at 93% reporting, so that's a lot, obviously. And Tillis with a 1.8% lead. So he's a Republican, and he still got about a two-point lead against Cunningham. If he holds that seat, that is devastating for the Democrats' chances

of picking up the Senate. They really needed that one. Speaking of devastating, let's go to Maine for Susan Collins versus Sarah Gideon. Now, in this case, it's 82% reporting Collins with a shocking eight point lead. God. What in the world? Why does she have an eight point lead? But again, it's not over. Malin, who knows, right?

In the old days, 82% would have meant we're all, it's almost over. point lead it would have definitely been over but in in this election it doesn't mean that so hold the phone we'll see how it turns out my old friend Chrissy Smith in California 25 50% reporting and Christy's got the lead 51.7 to 48.3 I am pleasantly surprised by that given that she lost by 10 points in the special election I was very pessimistic about it but as things state Now he's got about a three and a half point lead. All right, every seat matters.

That's good. Yes. Do you think that this race will get called before your race against her gets called? If you're wondering, I was in this race. This is the race I was in, not in an earlier cycle, in this cycle. I know it feels like it was a, I don't for you, I don't know how, if you guys still remember it, I don't know if you have any 1% feeling towards it or anything, but for me, it feels like it was a decade ago. But that's still this race.

And so I lost in the primary. Christy and Mike won. They did the special election and now they're doing the general election for the direct. I know it's so funny. It's actually a general election for the special election and the regular election. So and now she's got the three and a half point lead and that's great. And I want Democrats to pick up as many seats as possible.

But the reference John made is the primary, California just decided they weren't going to finish counting. So it's only 77% reporting. Well, they got to 77. Yeah, on March 3rd. The election that happened on March 3rd, 77% reporting. They're working around the clock to try to get the other 23%. That's why I was not overly hopeful about there being a smooth count today across the nation. as some states like California every once in a while ago, yeah, whatever, which is not going to do it.

Which, again, I can't stop being stunned by that indifference towards what actually happened in an election. Okay, and finally for now, and potentially most importantly, Kar Eastman versus Don Bacon in Nebraska, too. Now, it's already being called for Biden, but people love incumbents because they see their names all. all the time they get used to. They've already voted for bacon twice. I must like bacon, I don't know anything about him except that he's, you know, takes all the money from corporations does whatever they want. But I voted for him before I go for him again.

And so that's usually how it works. And right now, unfortunately he's got a 4.6% lead, which is too, too much with 97% reporting. So that does not look good for our friend Carr. So yes, if there's any other updates, we'll let you know. Yes, John. Yeah, yeah, I have a quick question, sort of. I think I had an update, but then I think I lost it. Anyway, not super important.

Oh, Karen Bass was re-elected. So from right around the block. Of course. Yeah, obviously. Another question is, shocking thing. We'll talk about this in the post game. We've got a post game coming up for the members. We've got a two-hour post game for you guys.

I mean, I told you guys to join up that you'd get more coverage. You're about to get a lot more coverage. There's so many things we've got to talk about, including how progressives are going to react to this. But one of them is, so who runs for Kamala Harris' seat? Karen Bass, Adam Schiff, Javier Bacera. So what's that? Rokana maybe, right? Katie Porter.

Katie Porter. I could be an amazing free-for-all. So let's see what happens there. Okay, so, John, yes. Yeah, but no, the thing I wanted to ask is, I think it was from CNN or MSNBC. Honestly, I can't always tell the difference. Anyway, they had Trump about to give remarks shortly. So it's election night, he is the incumbent president, but can they just play his remarks live?

Like I'm assuming they will, but they know exactly what he's going to be, what he's going to do. They know exactly what he's going to do. He's going to get up there and lie to the American people to discredit the continued count of an ongoing election. And they're going to do it. They're just going to play his live remarks. That seems like a massive dereliction of the duty of the media in a democracy. I get it, but how is that seriously about to happen in like five minutes? I hear you, John, but to be fair to the media, in which I'm not, I think I'm always fair to the media.

I'm not always nice to them, but in this case, it's the president of the United States in a contested election and he's gonna come out and say what he's gonna do. Yeah, you gotta cover that. You just got to. There's no way around it. Even if he comes out and goes, kill, kill, kill. You don't have a choice. You got to cover it. You could cut it and go, oh my God, don't kill. Don't kill, right? But, you know, they're stuck. There's no way you can not play that, in my opinion. By the way, there is effectively a call. Now on Twitter, Kar Eastman is effectively conceding, it looks like. Okay, so a couple of great progressives lost tonight, as happens on every election night,

and it hurts every time. So Kara Eastman has lost, and Paula Jean Sweringen has lost. And they were great, great fighters, and I was super hopeful about Carr Eastman, super hopeful. And it is what it is. Oh, wait, we don't have to move on. We could just pull a Trump and be like, no. fake news. Carrey Smith's the Congresswoman. That's it. That's it. You got to remove Don Bacon from office. He's illegitimate. Car one. Is that amazing that they do that? The other side actually

does that. That's unreal. Anyway, okay, I want to quote you guys here because I like these couple of quotes from the member section. Connor says, I worked for Decision Desk HQ tonight and was listening to TYT the whole time. Glad to see them cited here. Well, glad to have have you here and have you listening the whole night while you're working there. So that's awesome. Thanks, Connor. And you're a member to TYT.com slash join to become a member. Jeteen 12 makes a good point on an upside. All squad members are going back to Congress. That's right. And progressive veteran asks a good question that we're probably going to have to carry over to the post game too. Jank, if the Dems don't win the Senate, it doesn't matter who wins the presidency, or at least

I thought it was a question, it's not, that's a statement. But guys, Biden is president, but the Democrats don't have the Senate, oh, recipe for disaster, that we will get absolutely nothing done, and it'll all be blamed on Democrats. There's no way that Biden has the strength to overpower a Republican Senate. No way. In the middle of an economic collapse. Was that, Nando? That's the real, in the middle of an economic collapse, I mean, that's the real nightmare, right?

Because the, you know, the economic collapse requires, like, massive stimulus, which the Republicans will just be happy to block every single time. And the Democratic administration will be blamed, Blame fueling a right wing backlash more furious than the last one. That's the nightmare. Yeah, I mean, let me finish the nightmare for you. It is inconceivable that Biden is strong enough to rhetorically beat the Republicans into submission. Inconceivable.

And that means absolutely nothing gets done unless Mitch McConnell is thrilled to do it. which means Mitch McConnell is president, but all the things that go wrong will be blamed on Biden and the Democrats, setting up a smart fascist coming around this time in 2024, and then brace for impact. So we got to talk about what we can do about that as progressives, because we might have to go to war way quicker than we imagined, because I didn't have them not winning the Senate on the board. And we also have to, here, let's jump into this right now. Nando, what happened here?

Okay, we know Democrats didn't run as strong, blah, blah, blah. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about why did the polling tell us that Cal Cunning was going to win as an example, and then Biden had much more comfortable, leads in the Midwest, et cetera. The Midwest is still up in the air, so it's hard to tell what's actually going to happen. Was the polling just wrong again, or is this Trump unlikely voter thing real? Can Democrats do likewise?

What's your first take on what happened? Well, it strikes me as that the support that there is amongst for Democrats is just kind of soft, if that makes sense. It's like if people are asked, then yeah, they. they prefer the Democrats, but it's not a, it's not solid support. It's not support that motivates people to go out to the polls. It's not, you know, these, as the American elector becomes more and more polarized and people kind of retreat into their tribal camps or whatever, elections become all about riling up your base in turnout, you know. And so when people are

asked the question and posed to them, they're like, yeah, I don't like Trump. And I'll, yeah, sure, I'll take the box for the other guy. But if you don't give those people any reason to go out and actually do with a positive act of voting, then they won't do it. I mean, I remember in 2018, I'm from Florida. Like, we all thought Andrew Gillum was going to win. We all thought Bell Nelson was going to win. And they lost to Rick Scott. Rick Scott, who was the governor of Florida, responsible for the largest Medicare fraud in the history of America. And the most unpopular governor in America at the time wins the Senate race. And despite the polls showing that Nelson had a decent lead, I just think that the support

for Democrats because they don't campaign positively for an agenda that people actually want to vote for. They just kind of vote, they just kind of run this prevent defense to use like a football analogy, you know, like just, you know, they're in the lead, there's more Democrats in America than there are Republicans, that's true. As long as they don't do anything too terrible, they're going to win the elections and the polling, that's what it says. But elections are about riling up your base and getting them out to the polls, inspiring them in some way. That's why Obama won comfortably, because for all this flaws, people liked voting for Obama. It felt like a cool thing to do to vote for Obama.

So they went out and did it twice, even though Democrats lost everywhere else in the midterms and things like that. They liked voting for Obama. It was like a positive act. But the Democrats haven't offered their voters basically anything since then. They're just kind of now running this shadow campaign in which we're like, we're not as bad as the other guy. The other guy's terrible. All that's true, but we're not really going to offer you anything. Your life is not going to improve meaningfully.

The downward trajectory is just going to continue. We're just going to manage it slightly more competently than the other guys. And that's just not going to win you elections in the long run. It's going to give you a decent polling lead because people hate right-wing politics. They hate the Republicans. I think the vast majority of Americans do that. But they don't have an alternative that is inspiring enough for people to go out and actually vote for the support is just kind of.

soft. So I like that theory. So John, what do you think of the Nando theory that the polls are off, not because there's anything wrong with their science or statistics, but they're off because it's not measuring base enthusiasm enough in terms of voter turnout. I think that there's something definitely to it that they, I mean, look, they ask questions about enthusiasm. Those are words that can mean a lot of different things. Can they necessarily grasp how powerful? flaccid the support for a particular candidate can be, no, probably not. So I definitely think that Nando's onto something that the lack of passion is a part of it. But let's also bear in mind that there are some particular things about this race. I mean, pollsters are trying to, like,

you're either getting a registered voter thing or a likely voter thing. And generally the polls that people are focusing on are the likely voter polls and trying to decipher who is a likely voter in this particular election. Donald Trump's reelection and in the midst of a pandemic, that is going to have far more early voting than ever before is going to be more difficult because look, there was a ton of early voting, but what you also had in theory was a couple of weeks of news about how much early voting there was and how many, how it was skewed for the Democrats. And so we don't know for sure if that might have had an effect on some Republicans day of that maybe after hearing for weeks that oh my God, the Biden vote is really coming in,

maybe they're a little bit more likely to vote. I honestly don't know, I think it's probably a combination of both of those things. Biden is not a candidate that's inspiring a lot of really strong support, and also, this is a wacky year. Yeah, I'm not sure I'm buying the wacky year thing, because you can call people, they're home. They're more likely to be home. So, but speaking of wacky, let me go back to the numbers, because I got to update you on important stuff here, and we'll keep doing that through the post game, too, because these numbers are moving. They're not moving anywhere near as fast as they did earlier in the night, but they are moving. So for example, in Georgia, it's now up to 91% reporting. And remember

Trump had a five-point lead, it's now down to a three-point lead. So at some point, the percentage chance of Biden winning had dropped to 59. It's back now up to 64. In North Carolina, man, that meter is moving slow, but it is inching towards Biden. Not close yet, But it was at 96% likelihood that Trump would win. It's now at only 82% likelihood that Trump would will win. And the lead is only 1.4% for Trump in North Carolina. So it just moved to 83%. Keeps moving, okay.

Now, Arizona, they brought out, Fox News brought out there, the guy who calls elections for them and is running all their numbers. And he literally said, I'm sorry, but the numbers are correct. I love that on Fox News, you have to apologize for having correct numbers. That is so quintessential Fox News. And Biden, as things currently stand, still holds a six point lead in Arizona with 80% reporting. But it was nine, it has moved down to six. So Wisconsin, 78% reporting, Trump's still holding out to a four point lead.

Nevada now a lot more reporting in the beginning, Trump had the lead because, presumably because of day of voting, but now was 77% reporting Biden with a four point win. But Biden's supposed to win that pretty easy. So yeah, I wouldn't worry about Nevada, but it's not either, but it's not good news for Biden either. Actually, just moved again. Biden only a three point lead now was 78% reporting. And now the most important ones, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, they're moving less. They're pretty much where they were with Michigan, Trump 9, Pennsylvania, Trump 14, and Wisconsin, Trump 4, but with giant stacks of mail-in ballots waiting to be counted, especially in the cities in Wisconsin, and they're going to announce them all at the same time. So I'm not too worried about Wisconsin, but there is still some chance that Trump could pull out Pennsylvania and Michigan.

And then at that point, he has a better chance. It's not even a guarantee that he would win, but he certainly would have a better chance of winning. I'm going to do the math in a second on what happens in a top seat to every world where Trump wins Wisconsin and Michigan in an unexpected way, but loses Georgia and Arizona. which is possible, which is totally possible and on the board right now. So we'll do that math in a bit. But again, Biden winning Nebraska's second district is huge. And yes, the race has now been officially called, by the way, unfortunately in the congressional side of that, Don Bacon has won and everyone agrees.

Okay, so we've got a whole post game where J.R. is going to join us. Michael Schroo is going to come back. And we've got to talk about what are we going to do when Trump says I didn't lose? What are we going to do if Biden eaks it out? What should the progressive stance be? What are we going to do if the Senate is in Republican hands, even if it's 5149? God, I'll tell you, out of all those scenarios, believe it or not, that's the one that actually I think might be the scariest. So we've got a little bit of time here.

So let's start on that conversation. John, is there, I'm trying to figure out hope for how we would get anything passed in the Senate. But to your earlier point about how there is no price to pay, you know, like, you remember I think Pelosi said it, Kamala Harris might have said it. Oh, if they vote for Amy Coney Barrett, there's going to be a price to pay. Does it look like they paid a price? No, the Republicans won all these closed Senate seats. There was no price to pay. So I'm not sure I can even see a sliver of hope.

Forget progressive policies like easy things, like $15 minimum wage, paid family leave. These should have been bang, bang, bang. And now what do you think? Is it all dead? I mean, I don't even think we need to jump to something either very progressive or even sort of progressive. How about like testing and tracing, like some sort of basic pretending that the first. federal government cares about the ongoing pandemic, that's probably going to kill a lot more than a thousand people tomorrow. And by the time Biden would eventually be sworn in, it's probably

still going to be killing a thousand people a day, if not far more. They might just not do anything. Like, I know that we're not likely necessarily to get a Supreme Court vacancy in the next four years, but why would we assume that even if it happened next year that they would actually give them a vote? Again, there doesn't really seem to be any cost for anything. Ted Cruz was saying going into Hillary Clinton being president, hypothetically, that there would never be a vote on Merrick Garland. They will believe coming out for this election that nothing they did this year and all the things they didn't do this year didn't hurt them. And I can't really say that they're wrong. Mitch McConnell will have maintained his majority, having weathered from his perspective,

the worst domestic crisis our country has had in a century. And they didn't effectively have to do basically anything for the American people and it didn't hurt them. So why, why in a continuation of the pandemic, a continuation of the economic problems, would they feel any more reason to actually act? I think they would be rewarded by their base in standing up to Joe Biden. If he tries to do some sort of mask mandate or something like that, they're going to launch nationwide investigations into it or something and their base will love every moment of it, even if 2,000 people, 3,000 people are dying every day. I think it is going to be a very, very dark year if they maintain control of the Senate.

Nando, last word on that. I think it's even more, yeah, I think it's even more grizzly than that. I think they'll actually see political benefit in causing the most amount of human damage possible, right? I mean, I think that they're going to try as hard as possible to hang the pandemic around Joe Biden's neck. And, you know, forget a Supreme Court justice. The sixth, justice on the federal circuit bench of whatever. You know, that's not getting confirmed either. Yeah, nothing's going to happen. The question is how aggressive will Democrats, will the Democratic administration be willing to be in using the executive branch basically just unilaterally? And,

you know, they're going to try to keep doing, going to Congress for things. But there is wide berth that they could, they could use if they were aggressive and kind of willing to break the norms that Republicans are so willing to break all the time. So guys, we're about to go to the post game for members. We're gonna do a giant one today, two hours, because I wanna make sure that I keep giving you results in case any of these races are called. And I think that in the post game,

a couple of them probably will be called and a number of them won't. So please stay here, you could hit the join button below the video on YouTube and at the essentials level. You get the post game, you can keep watching. If you're watching anywhere else, t.yt.com slash join. We've gotta break down all those scenarios

of what happens when Trump imminently says, I didn't lose. They're trying to steal the election, etc. We got to break all that stuff down for you guys. So make sure that you become a member. And then if at the end, the race is still not called overall, which is likely, you got to keep watching here because we will do live videos to give you updates on important states and eventually the election being called if it's not done in time. And too strong coffee.com slash t.yt is a great sponsor that got us through the night and is progressive and delicious. And most important, I want to thank all of you who watched, who are amazing.

Let's keep it going on the post game, and we'll see you there in just a couple of minutes. Thanks for listening to the full episode of the Young Turks. Support our work, listen to ad-free, access members-only bonus content, and more by subscribing to Apple Podcasts at apple.com slash t-y-t. I'm your host, Shank Huger, and I'll see you soon.