The Young Turks - Part 2: TDR Live Election Day 2020

Episode Date: November 3, 2020

Election Day Part 2: Hosted by Cenk Uygur, and John Iadarola. TYT is Progressive Headquarters on Election Day. We’ll be tracking the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and key progressive races around the country featuring a rotating panel of guests. Stay tuned for exit polls, state returns, down-ballot races, and more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You're listening to the Young Turks, the online news show. Make sure to follow and rate our show with not one, not two, not three, not four, but five stars. You're awesome. Thank you. Welcome back to TYT's Election Day coverage. We're joined in studio by none other than Jank Yugar. You might have heard of him. How's it going, Jake?

Pretty good, pretty good. It's kind of a giant day. Bit of an election going on. A bit of a historic day, but honestly, like, this is probably one of the most historic days of your life. If you're an American citizen, you might talk about this day to your kids, your grandkids, to people not born yet. I was there in 2020 when we beat the fascists. Maybe. Yeah, well, let's hope.

As you can tell, I voted. I'd like to have that on when we first start. And I did actually vote today in California. Day of. Yeah, well, I had prepared it and then I handed it in today. It's something about Election Day that I like to go to the polls. I get that. And obviously I did ballot harvesting, grabbed a couple of thousand ones.

I didn't, it's a joke, okay, you know, with the Republicans. Anyways, so John, there's so much to talk about, there's voter guides, there's predictions, there's all these wonderful things. But before we do anything else, I just want to show you guys something fun that I also put on today, not just my I voted sticker, but this. Oh God. What is it? Is that what I think it is?

Dragon Squad. What? What is this? What is this? When on TDR, do as the Dragon Squad does? I never thought I would live to see the day. You know what? I'm so hyped now, I don't even care if Biden wins.

Because Dragon Squad has already won. Wow, okay, I'm impressed. I'm impressed. All right, John, I know we're going to talk about a lot about the election. But let me actually, I saved it for when I was on damage report to ask you this. I purposely didn't ask before. Okay, now what is Dragon Squad? Okay, so I mean, look, the easy answer is it's, you know, a community of people who watch

the damage report and probably the Young Turks too. The historical answer is that we were talking about one of the dumb groups of idiot right-wingers. I don't remember if it was the boogaloo boys or the proud boys, but we were talking about how all of these guys who spend every second of every day thinking, about what would make them strong alpha men, and then they want to make a group that sounds strong, the best they can come up with is like the proud boys and the boogaloo boys. And I was like, dude, just think about it for like an extra second. I can off the top of my head come up with something that'll probably still be a little

bit lame but will be cooler than any of their ideas. And I blurted out Dragon Squad and it has become a behemoth ever since. And now all of a sudden it's, I'm wearing it. You're wearing it. It's on his body. That's right. It's on my chest, so apparently it mustn't work. So by the way, shoptyt.com to get that awesome sure.

And it is, it's not only a really cool team name, if you will, right? Or slogan, but it's also a really badass shirt. So I'm kind of proud to wear it around. So shopty.com. All right, look, well, there's some great, brave sponsors that have made this coverage possible, too. We'll give them shoutouts throughout the day. I'm gonna give you one more website before John gets us back to the election, which is t-y-t.com slash investigates because there we, John and Larson, our manager, has put up a great resource for all of you to see, which states count early, which states count late, how long will Pennsylvania take versus Florida, what was the vote last time around, what was the polling last time around, what's the polling this time around?

So there's a wonderful, wonderful resource, t.yt.com slash investigates. He's also got a live blog up, t yt.com slash live blog. Oh, that's a good name for it. And if you guys have stories from your voting experiences, but just stuff that you have seen, right? We'll get all the other news from other outlets. Then please send it in to the young Turks at protonmail.com, which also sounds badass. Protonmail.com, the young Turks of Proton, Mail.com. Because if you have videos, you have pictures, you have stories, we want to make sure that we want to obviously confirm

them first. That's why we're having you sent it to that website. And then we'll get it up on air if it's relevant to the election, because we do the show together. Exactly, exactly. Okay, so we have a little bit of breaking news behind the scenes. So we're going to take a break in just a second. But before we do that, I did want to let you know, Anna has been labeled the salt dragon, and people are suggesting the justice dragon for Cenk, which I think it's good. Pretty cool. That sounds so good. And there was a great response to you showing the shirt. Fulcrum agent on Twitch said, Jank is in the Dragon Squad T-shirt. The apocalypse has begun. And brother Mucker said, it's like when Cap picked up Thor's hammer and end game.

I love that. That's pretty good. That is, but you're Captain America, so I don't know what that makes me. But yes, I love that analogy. Now that said, we're gonna take a short break because when we come back, we're gonna be joined. Not only, we're still gonna be here, but also much more importantly, Corey Bush is gonna join us after this. Welcome back to the election coverage, everybody. We are unfortunately being shadow banned. Big Tech is discriminated against us. We're having a little bit of technical problems.

We're gonna work it out. We're gonna get Cory Bush soon. We've got a lot to talk about before that though. I just wanna read a few of the super chats. You guys have been flooding us with so much supportive comments. We really appreciate it. Wayne Sugahara says, Jenk, thank you and everyone at TYT for the gift of substantive,

intelligent reporting. On another point, I cut my teeth. I understand from an informed source that the TDR t-shirts are selling out or selling well and wonder when the dragon hats are coming. I have to see that. Shop ty.com. Keep checking every hour and we'll see. No, but in all seriousness, I think we decided that if we get to 100,000

concurrent viewers on the stream, so share the stream, like the stream, that makes a big, big difference. We're going to release a new shirt about this election. What? And I've already seen it. And it's awesome. I haven't seen it. Yeah, you're going to love it. Okay, so we've got to get the stream to be larger and larger, tell your friends and neighbors, tell MAGA.

I'm sure they're excited. I can't wait to see the legendary bathtub. Okay, come and see. Come and see, brothers. And one more thing, guys, you make this show possible. You make all these shows possible. So if you're watching on YouTube, hit the join button below, it's so easy. And at the end of the night, we're gonna give members two extra hours of coverage.

And if you're on YouTube, you get that by signing up at the essentials level. And if you want all of our videos and all of our shows at any time at the premium level, okay? If you're anywhere else, t-y-t.com slash join, and we always have extra for our members. And John, if you want, I have the first piece of election news from the morning. What's that? So in Florida, Dave Wasserman, who is a big election expert, is saying lots of Republicans showed up in the morning. Now, everybody's so star for election news, and usually the mornings are, of course, slow, that any more slow of news, people are like, oh my God, it's over.

It's panic time, right? And he said in the 8 a.m. hour in Florida, a lot more Republicans were showing up than Democrats. Now, of course, about two-thirds of Florida voters have already voted. And by the way, and this is really important, their votes have already been counted. So the minute the polls close at 8 o'clock Eastern in Florida, we might already have an excellent sense of who is won Florida. And by the way, the entire election. So, but don't panic about the Republicans showing up, you know, at 8 a.m. because they don't have anything better to do. I'm kidding. No, it's, they showed up early. It doesn't matter.

Well, get a job. Anyway, get a mask, by the way. But Democrats have the advantage in mail and ballots. Actually, I'm surprised not as much as big elite in Florida on mail and ballots as there are in other states. So Florida is definitely up in the air. And let's also bear in mind that because they are already doing the count as a few other states are, that means that there's a chance that we could have a reverse of what we expect from Pennsylvania. We might get those initial results and look, oh my God, Biden is actually destroying, is absolutely destroying. And then as more of the day of votes are counted and added in the total, that could shrink the lead or potentially flip it.

So I would just warn people that in the same way that I wouldn't take bad news in Pennsylvania or some of these other states initially too seriously. I would also take good news from states like Florida with a grain of salt because there's a possibility you could have a red shift as those day of votes are counted. Yeah, normal pattern that we're expecting in most of the states is red mirage blue tide. So in a state like Pennsylvania that's slow to count, and again, go to TYT. She investigates to see who's slow and who's fast. In Pennsylvania, you'll have a red mirage because there's going to be more

a day of Trump voters because most of the Democrats already voted through mail-in ballots, but they haven't been counted. So it'll seem like Trump has a lead or maybe even a big lead, but it's a mirage. And then the blue tide comes in, not after the election. It's that they are counting the votes that came in before the election, but they start counting after the polls close. Whereas Florida is unique. They count the day before.

So they've already counted all the mail-in votes. That's why you're going to see, even look, being fair and honest, the potential of a blue mirage in Florida. And so we'll see how that goes. And obviously, there are some states that are close, some states that are not close. The national popular vote is not remotely close. We'll get to this in a little bit.

We've got predictions and we're asking you guys to participate in predictions too. Why should we have all the fun? Go to t-y-t.com slash pool to put in your picks for the electoral college, how many house seats, Senate seats, are either party going to pick up? Democrats. And I'll reveal some of those in a second, but I have Biden winning Florida, but that is one of the closer swing states. And here, I'll throw out another thing that's super important to this election and how you are viewing it.

And I'm not sure that other channels are giving you this. So there's a giant disconnect between the national polling and the swing state polling. So in the national polling, Biden has a gigantic lead. And so in my pool, I said it'd be Biden plus eight in the popular vote. And there's an argument to be made that that's conservative. And last poll out has Biden plus 10 nationwide. Is there an election that can be lost if you're plus eight or plus 10? The answer is not really, no, because that's a combination of all the states, including the swing states.

So why are some of the swing states so much closer? One, there's swing states, obviously. Two, Biden has a bigger lead in the blue states, but Trump has a bigger lead in the red states. But the one factor that no one's talking about is, in the swing states, you have a number of Republican polling operations like Trafalgar, Inside Advantage, and Rasmussen, and they're bringing down Biden's numbers because they're all way off the board. Either they're very right or very wrong. My guess and I can explain why is that they're very wrong. And so, but in the national polling, only Rasmus, which is only half-leaning, is in the national polling and in the

combined averages. But Trafalgar and Inside Advantage are not. So once you take out the trash Republican polls, you see the real numbers, and the real numbers are much bigger than what you might see on a website like real clear politics for the swing states. Yeah. Yeah, I, I don't know. We're going to talk about our pools. And my pool is, is pretty ambitious, I think I think even more than yours in a few ways, but the weird thing is that I feel more nervous than you seem. We actually, we got a super chat from someone saying if Anna and I were as confident as you were in your initial predictions and so you, like in the case of Pennsylvania, for instance,

and I know we're gonna get into the different buckets of swing states and all that, but you do feel pretty confident this morning. Yeah, I do, I definitely do. So let me explain why I feel that confident. So let's talk about the buckets of swing states, okay? So first of all, there's the Republican swing states. So now apparently Texas is a swing state, which already means we won the election. Okay, a little tongue in cheek there, but if we're talking about Texas, it's like if we're

talking about whether Biden's gonna win California, that means Trump would definitely be winning the election because he's so deep into the blue states that you're worried about your most core blue state. And they're worried about their most core red state, Texas, which has got the biggest electoral batch for the Republicans. So now, I think Trump will win Texas. I think Cornyn will win in Texas. But the fact that we're having a conversation about Texas shows that they're in deep trouble. So then you go to the other ones like Georgia. Georgia's deep, deep South. So if we're having, if obviously if Biden wins these, it's an epic landslide, a historic landslide. Texas is very unlikely, but Georgia's likely. He's Biden, if you take out

the trash Republican polls, has a slight lead in Georgia. So I don't have him winning Georgia because I thought that was too ambitious. But that's how deep we are into the red states. And I'll get to the rest in a second. Go ahead, John. Yeah, so look, I went big in a few areas and one that I'm almost certainly going to end up being wrong on is that I did in my pool. I have him down winning Texas, actually. It's partly aspirational. I lived in Texas for a number of years. I want it so badly to happen. But also, it's not like we don't have some reason to believe that it could happen. The early vote was absolutely insane. There was more early voting than there was total voting back in 2016 in Texas.

Texas. I have some family down in the valley and they're saying that it is, there's a lot of people are really engaged. A couple of the efforts to disenfranchise voters haven't gone through. Some were successful. Their efforts to only have one ballot drop off box in each county did go through, but it clearly didn't stop that much of the early voting or not as much as they would have hoped because so much actually happened. And their effort to take out over 11, I believe 17,000 votes from Harris County that were filed through drive-through voting. That so far hasn't happened either. Now for today, the county clerk in charge of that shut down the drive-through voting to stop those votes that would be cast today potentially from

being thrown out in the future. But all of those locations that had drive-through voting places have regular voting places as well. So I think that the groundwork is there. The two years ago, the Senate race was very close. I think there's a chance. I think there's a chance in Texas. Yeah, so they just put up your predictions and I took a quick look. And please guys, do your own, t.wit.com slash pools. It's a lot of fun. You don't have to fill out each one. You don't have to stress yourself out. Just fill out whatever you want. It's just for you. You don't win anything. Don't get me wrong. So, but John, I looked at the polling and And we're being overly exuberant if we think Texas, right?

And I saw your electoral count and I liked it, it's higher than mine. And you might be right because I didn't include Georgia or Iowa, so you might be right, right? And I think you got a 50-50 shot at being right about that. But Texas, you're definitely being super ambitious there. Okay, all right, so. We'll see, we'll see. Yeah, and Corny's got a big lead, unfortunately. But again, Texas, they're panicked, there's probably a reason why they're

The reason why they're panicked, probably later in the day, we'll talk about the Fifth Circuit, because that's an amazing story that relates to Texas and some decisions that were made, including the one John referenced. But let's keep going. If you can show me guys, the producers, the next bucket of states, I want to talk people through these. Okay, so these are all swing states, and so we had the landslide ones. Now these are the traditional swing states, Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and Maine's second district.

So now Nevada definitely going to Biden, main second district almost definitely going to Biden. Hold on you're, you know, I feel like you're glossing over, Florida is definitely going to Biden. No, I didn't say that. I said Nevada is definitely going to Biden, okay, and main second district almost definitely going to Biden. So that leaves Florida and Ohio, but you have to understand something.

The reason why I'm showing you this is because Trump has to win all of these but Nevada. He has to win all of them, and then some. He has to win his states, he has to win these states, and there's more that he's got to win. We'll get to those in a second. Ohio, I have Trump winning, Florida, I have Biden winning. They're both close, Ohio is a little bit closer to Trump. Could Biden win Ohio? Yeah, he could easily win it.

It's close to a tie, a statistical tie there, right? But Ohio has slipped away from the Democrats in the last couple of elections. Yeah, so now the chance of winning Georgia is actually higher than the chance of winning Ohio. So as we've gained, begun to gain, we've, Virginia used to be a swing state. It's no longer a swing state. It's not on anybody's swing state radar. Virginia is now solidly blue. It appears for the rest of the time. North Carolina looks like it's now trending blue to, we'll see if it winds up being solidly blue. Georgia is now trending blue.

But on the other hand, we've lost Ohio. The Minnesota lead is smaller than it used to be, but it's still gigantic. Yeah, and there were some polls with him like 12 plus in just the last week or two. Yeah. So now let's go to the next bucket of swing states. Remember, Trump has to win all of the ones that I mentioned earlier. Now I put Minnesota in brackets because it's not really a swing state. If we're being generous, you put it on there.

But Trump and Michigan is gone. Michigan is definitely Biden, okay, based on the polling. Honestly, Wisconsin is definitely Biden based on the polling. So that leaves only Pennsylvania. So Trump has to win all those other states plus Pennsylvania, and we've got one last bucket. Let me show you the last bucket. Okay. And then I'll get your thoughts.

And no, not the landslide. We already showed those. There's the bucket of the toss-up ones, like North Carolina, Arizona, and those. and Nebraska's second district in Iowa. Of those, I think Trump is more likely to win Iowa, but Biden is doing great in Nebraska's second district, so is Carr Eastman, and he's doing pretty damn good in North Carolina and Arizona.

But Trump must win those. He has to win every single one of those. So just starting out, Trump has to win almost all the swing states that are anywhere near swinging plus Pennsylvania. Otherwise, he loses. Yeah. So I guess I have a few fallups about a few of the different categories. So you have Florida going for Biden.

If Florida doesn't go for Biden, if we get those early results and the early results are tilted towards Biden, but it's pretty tight when it's predominantly the early vote there, how worried would you be? Well, I'd definitely be a tiny bit more worried. So no, I'm mid-sized worried because not just because you lost Florida, but, but, but, but because it might be indicative of a larger trend. But I'd also actually the correct answers, I'd be infinitely more worried, not because I'm very worried, but because if Biden wins Florida, it's already over. So by definition, I have to be a lot more worried.

On July 18th, get excited. This is big! For the summer's biggest adventure. I think I just smurf my pants. That's a little too excited. Sorry. Smurfs. Only the date is July 18th.

If it's not over. But guys, that's what I'm telling you. The polls start to close around 8 o'clock. Some close a little bit earlier. That's why the regular show normally at 6 o'clock goes to 7 and we're going to start election coverage immediately at 7 because some polls start closing.

But keep in mind, when the first batch of the East Coast closed, if Biden has won North Carolina, elections over. If he wins Florida, the election is over. If he wins Georgia, it's over, over, right? So Trump's got to run the table on all those plus Pennsylvania. Yeah.

Biden doesn't have to. Biden could lose Florida and still easily win the election. Yeah. Yeah, I guess the way I look at it, I feel like Florida Trump has put a lot of effort in the campaign into it. He's spent a lot of time there obviously over the past few years. They spent a lot of money there. There are some demographic reasons to believe that it could go against Biden.

But I also do think they've been incredibly hard hit by the pandemic. If I remember correctly, they've lost more than 13,000 people. I might be off by that. And so you would hope that his complete lack of leadership coupled with Ron DeSantis not seeming to give a damn. And some of that has to be attributable to Donald Trump. That would have an effect. You also have hypothetically, you have, I believe something like 300,000 Puerto Ricans who've recently moved to Florida as a result of the devastation back in 2017 and the hurricane. That could have some effect on the voting. It's really hard to say.

I do know that there was a account that I think sources in the Democratic Party in Florida said that they wanted to have a certain gap in party registration in the early votes. And they had very nearly that gap to feel confident going into election day. So I think that either way it is going to be close, which also means that we probably won't know tonight which way Florida's actually going to go. In an election, we might not know which way Florida is going to go. But I mean, I don't know if I've ever seen that before. I mean by 1 a.m. we might not know.

No, no, I know. And but then again, there's been elections famously so that did know which way Florida was going until a couple of months later. But wouldn't it be really nice and really pleasant to have the result on the day of? Yeah, and John, actually that leads to another important point, which is, there's almost no way that Trump wins tonight. That would be beyond shocking. Because the only scenario where Trump wins is a scenario where he squeaks it out. It barely wins again like 2016, holy cow, he won Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania,

and all the other swing states, and that gave him a narrow victory, right? But there is plenty of chances that Biden can be called tonight, because Biden has a huge lead. So if don't take my confidence to mean that he that Biden is going to win all the swing states. As I just explained to you, I don't think he's going to win Texas or Iowa. I think George is a toss up. I think Florida is potentially a toss up. Ohio certainly is, right? But he could again, for the 18th time, Biden could lose all of those and the election could even still be called tonight.

Because if he wins North Carolina and Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, which he should, He should, it gets called, it's over. And overall, like we've been looking at the polls and the polls have been relatively consistent nationally and a lot of the state polls going back like a year. Some polls have been depressingly consistent. I saw yesterday, I think it was on Stephen Colbert, he had Trump's approval rating over the last few years and it has effectively been the same thing the entire time. It's trended down or up a couple of points and that's it, which is just infuriating

when you think about all that we've gone through as a country since, 2016, the idea that it basically is a wash on people, that's frustrating. But we don't know exactly what the turnout is going to be like today. And I'm reading headlines right now. I'm like scouring to see what's going on out there. And some people are saying we're on track for the highest rate of voter turnout since 1908. And generally, if I was a Republican, I don't want the most voter turnout in more than a century. That's not usually how they plan for things to go, but with so much of it being this surge of early voting that we've never really experienced before. And people hearing news about that for weeks. Like the idea that so many people have

already voted and it's likely to lean Democrat, that is established information. And that means that in theory, more Republicans could use that information to be, you know, inspired to go out and vote on day of. It doesn't look like a huge surge of last minute voting is going to help the Republicans. But we don't know until we actually know. Yes. So, So guys, Reagan versus Carter, so some of you might not remember that, of course, but it's considered in popular lore in American history as a blowout, right? Oh, Reagan, mighty Reagan, he blew out Mondale, he blew out Jimmy Carter. It was 50.7 to 41, so about a 10 point lead for Reagan in an epic landslide.

Biden today has about a 10 point lead in the national vote, like the popular vote, like the one I just quoted for you for you guys with Reagan and Carter. So there isn't under normal sane circumstances, there isn't an election that you win by eight or 10 points to the national level and lose in the electoral college. You can win as we've seen, you could win a popular vote by two points and losing the electoral college, not by eight points. So that's where some of my confidence comes in from. And if you want to know the other part of it, Trafalgar Group, which is skewing all of the combination of the polls in their almost single-handedly in their maniacal polling, why are they coming out

so differently than everyone else? If someone says they're voting for Trump, they go, great, you're voting for Trump, they check it off in their polling. This is literal. If somebody says Since they're voting for Biden, they go, eh, okay, but who are your neighbors voting for? If they say Trump, they go, okay, good, you're voting for Trump. They're like, no, I'm voting for Biden. Nope, you're a shy Trump voter, and we figured out since your neighbors are voting for Trump, you're also going to vote for Trump. You're just afraid to say it.

Wait a minute, if their neighbors are voting for Trump, why would they be afraid to say it? That doesn't make any sense at all. And what do you, why are you flipping votes in your poll? Like, it's the most non-scientific insane poll I've ever seen. I know there's been so much talk about the shy voters and I get it. I think that a lot of the talk is driven by fear about 2016 happening again. And sure, some of the state polls were off. I will go to my grave reminding people that the national polls were not off by very much,

if at all, in the run up to the 2016 election. But I think that the fact that some of the polls were off lead people to just fill in the blank somehow and they think, okay, the polls were off, well, I heard stuff about shy Trump. because that must be the thing that did it. I don't think that that's actually clear at all. I have seen a lot of pollsters talking about the fact that they hadn't really been taking into account education as a variable in their, in their analyses. Because once you correct for college educated versus not college educated, you find a lot of variation in white male voters. That's important. That has now been incorporated.

I have never across multiple years seen anything about Trump voters that imply to me that they're shy or more shy than most voters. They're literally sinking their ships with Trump flags and stuff like that. Who thinks they're shy? Now, are they trolling pollsters by lying about who they support to make his support seem smaller? I find that more plausible, they are trolls, but that's a lot of effort. And I don't think like thousands of people are doing that. The polls could be off, Trump could win, but I don't think it's because Trump fans are just so shy about telling people that they support him. Yeah, and there's two different things here.

First of all, the idea of a shy Trump voter is a misnomer. What happened in 2016 was unlikely voters. It's not that they were embarrassed to say they were voting for Trump. It's that most of the polls were reporting on likely voters based on previous elections. How many times did you vote in previous elections? So if you're voting based on, polling based on likely voters, your numbers are going to be off. And they're off, not just with Trump, but with Bernie Sanders. This is the phenomenon we talked about in the Michigan primary in 2016.

Those those polls were off by 20 points, not because of shy Bernie voters. Oh, golly, gee, wait, are we Bernie bros or are we shy Bernie voters? It doesn't make sense, right? No, it was because of unlikely voters. Now, what Trafalgar is doing, now a lot of the polls have adjusted. I don't know how well they've adjusted to the idea that, oh, right, unlikely voters might come out for Trump especially, right? So they've taken that into account to some degree.

But what Trafalgar is doing is, one, making up the idea of a shy voter, two, just flipping votes. I mean, that's not a scientific thing. Oh, your neighbors are voting for Trump. So I'm going to write down that you're voting for Trump, even though you told me you were voting for Biden. Yeah. That's not a poll. It's just not a poll. Yeah.

That's garbage. That's what Breitbart would do. That's what daily wire, daily caller, daily cuckoo for cocoa puffs would do. So that's not real. So it's bringing down Biden's numbers in all the swing states with this total trash of a poll. And if you're not convinced yet, and you think, oh, yeah, you're probably biased. Trafalgar, man, they're really scientific. The guy who runs it was on Fox the other day.

And he said, oh, Trump's going to win Pennsylvania by three or four points. And but, you know, it might look like he lost. And that's because the Democrats are playing to steal Pennsylvania. That's a pollster. What? Wait, you're a pollster. What are you talking about stealing Pennsylvania? That is nothing to do, even if that way in your maniacal thesis was true, it has nothing

new with being a scientific pollster. You're talking about a completely different phenomenon of what they're going to do and how they count the votes. No, that tells you, the guy's totally nuts, he's not a pollster, he's just a hack who's going in there and go, I got Trump by 12, that's what I got Trump by 12, that's 17. I flipped more votes, I saw more neighbors, everybody's shy, everybody's shy, Democrats are trying I still think, so that's why I did a poll of St. Trump's winning by 17. Get the out of here.

It's nonsense. Unfortunately, we have to get the out of here for our last break of the hour. But before we go to that break, one bit of bad news and then two super chats I want to read. The bit of bad news is apparently the shadow banning has worked and we're unfortunately not going to have Cory Bush. But hopefully in the very near future, we will have Congresswoman Bush on the show, honestly, every week if she'd like to. But two super chats, first of all, I wanted to read this from Ryan Fox on the main show.

YouTube stream. The biggest super chat I've ever seen, actually. Thank you so much, Ryan Fox saying what is the largest popular vote margin that can be attained without winning the electoral college? And he says that the donation is for the 10 plus years he watched without paying. He says, thanks, keep doing you, booze. Thank you, Ryan Fox. So, I mean, we know that like you basically have to factor in that the Dems have to win overall by at least three points to have any chance whatsoever of winning the electoral college. I don't know in terms of if they were to game it out exactly how much they could win by and not still win. But I'm sure you could probably get up to four or five or maybe six points overall. It really depends on the distribution of

votes. If you had a ton of voters in New York and maybe Michigan and California, that could throw things off by a lot. Yeah. So first of all, guys, thank you for giving. And if you can, t.yt.com slash go and almost everything in the studio is named after you guys. And every donation counts and is so important anywhere from, you know, a buck, three bucks, five bucks, it doesn't matter. We know that it's tough times, not just for us, but for you guys, partly thanks to Trump. But also for the bigger donations, there's one that came in recently. Wonderful, Ashley gave $15,000. There was a matching donation, so it's just fantastic. You could actually name things in the studio, like this desk is called a triptych desk because a donor in a previous

campaign named it. This is the Nick Wildchair previous campaign. Our mics are named. Everything is named after you guys. So if you want to know what you can name, t-y-t.com slash press on. So as we keep going here, we'll also give you some of the range of possibilities, because I love the question that was asked for Trump and Biden. And right now, the baseline is Biden's already at 279, if he just holds the things, the states where he's got big leads. And I don't know if you know this, it's 270 to win. So he's already over the hump if the polls are anywhere near right, even with Trafalgar and the others factored in.

Yeah, yeah. Really fast, just two others I want to read from Tejat says a little something for your sound. Thank you. I know that we're having a little bit of sound sync issues, but we are dealing with it. And lazy peon says, here's some socialist money. Live free and rock on. Thank you for your socialist money. We appreciate that. Now, that said, we do have to take a break. We come back a little bit more with Jenk. Close out the hour after this.

Welcome back to TYT election coverage, Jenk. How's it going? Yeah, so look, the audio issue has also created the issue for our connection to Cory Bush. We'll straighten that out as we go, but all the more reason to give it toy.com slash go. Okay, but I wanted to give a shout out to our wonderful brave sponsors who are so progressive that they back shows like this. And that's no small thing. So, and they do progressive things like plant change plants trees. And what you got to do in order to do that, it's really simple. You go to t.yt.com slash trees and take any credit card or debit card that you have that you use.

If you want to round up to the nearest dollar, they plant a whole tree every. time you round up. Yes, sure, it could be 97 cents. It could also be two cents, and they'll still plant a tree. And so we got to take things action into our own hands. So I love finding these sponsors. I love bringing them to you because it's a win-win. And so check it out at t-y-t.com slash trees and see if you want to be involved in that. It helps the environment, obviously, tremendously. And the other sponsor that's been going strong this whole time, well, I didn't mean that, but it makes sense. It's too strong, too strong coffee.com slash TYT. Am I drinking this all day? Damn right. I am. Maybe that's why I'm so pumped up. Anyway, so you'll see this.

We're going to debut too twitchy coffee later on once he's had a few cups. Too twitchy. No, all right. And by the way, you get this mug after three bags or more, but after two bags are more, they give to progressive causes like Justice Democrats, Rebellion Pack, Wolf Pack, TYT, and Justice Dragon. No, not yet, but hopefully. Within two weeks, Jank will have launched something named Justice Dragon. I don't know what, but something good. Well, John and I were talking during the break.

I mean, Dragon Squad, I mean, if you're going to give me a name like Justice Dragon, how am I not going to love that? That's right up there with sword of the left. Right? So that's the nickname, Marion Foster giving. How about a dude that's got the sword of the left on top of the justice dragon? What she's doing on? I hope that's what rolls tonight over Trump. Hope so. Okay, so we don't have much more time, but we did want to go through a few more of your predictions. So can we take a look at the election pool, which is available at t.com slash pool. Everybody can download it and make their predictions and play along. Jank, out of these, what would you consider to be the most, I guess, the boldest predictions?

Well, okay, first of all, let me just point out, obviously, I got 335-203 on electoral college vote, and that's a landslide. But it could have been a bigger landslide. I did not give Georgia, Texas, Iowa, or Ohio to Biden. I gave all those to Trump, and he still comes out of three, Biden still comes out of 335. I have him winning the popular vote by eight points. I have the Democrats picking up eight seats in the House and only five seats in the Senate. I think they'll lose in Alabama the seat that they already have and that obviously hurts. But I think they'll still pick up five. I got two Q&N on Congress people coming in.

And I think the election will be called tonight. And I think people might be surprised by that. But will Trump concede tonight? No, unlikely. But I have a fun prediction for you guys. Let's do it now on damage report. What's that? So my prediction is that in the interregnum, in the lame duck session, Donald Trump will concede and unconceived two to three times.

I'm not kidding. So at some point, probably not tonight, at some point this week, he'll go, fine, okay, I lost, I don't care, I'll leave me anyway, right? And then a little bit later he'll change his mind and come back, I'm not conceding. Yeah, I'm going to fight it all the way. It's a fraud, hoax, hoax, hoax. And then he'll concede again, and then come out again and go, I'm not. So it's like it's the inverse Ross Perrault, basically? Yeah, after the election is over, he'll keep changing his mind.

Because that's what he does. Because he has no strategy, he has no mind. So it's just whatever pops into his head. So at some point, he will give, my guess, is a semi-gracious concession. And you're thinking, no way. Right, right, I'm telling you, at tomorrow morning, tomorrow night, I don't know when it happens, but he'll say, okay, hey, it was good day, mayor, I love America, I believe in democracy, blah, blah, blah, when it seems, when he's checked with everyone. We tried stealing it. It didn't work. It didn't work. You're sure it didn't work. He didn't work in Florida, right? And then he'll do some sort of concession speech and then take it back. That's my first. Yeah, which, I mean, he could do that. Our concession speech literally doesn't mean anything. It doesn't actually do anything. It's a norm. basically and it's a good one and you know all of that but it doesn't actually have any effect

necessarily in what happens. But if he were to do that, let's say it is a pretty big blowout tonight and Trump, you know, like from the White House because it's probably where it's going to be, gives an actual concession speech. I understand that you think he could take it back. That's a possibility. But if the media does the thing the media does where they're like, look at that's the day he became president or so presidential, would it finally be justified if he defies all of our expectations about how he's going to challenge the results and he actually concedes tonight. Should we pat him on the head? No, because he will unconceit. I'm telling you, I nearly guaranteed. And so, but I'll tell you why he might give a gracious concession speech

of about two minutes. If, I mean, tonight would be really shocking, but sometime tomorrow, sometime in the week. It's because to him, this is all a show. So it's kind of an interesting end to the show, end to the season, and maybe even end to the series, right? So to him, all the drama is good ratings. That's how his mind works. So after the show is over, he's like, oh, okay, yeah, whatever, I lost. See, I disagree. My prediction will be that if he loses, I can't conceive of him ever conceding because his base has been trained to not believe that he could ever lose. It would be too much of a shock to them if he were to say that he did.

I think he'll just continually kick up dust and whine and complain and then carry that forward, whether like in some sort of political venture or some sort of media venture, I believe he will literally never admit that he lost if he does indeed lose. Yeah, I mean, we're saying something similar but not exactly. You're saying he just will never do it. But look, I think about this, remember all the locker up chance about Hillary Clinton? Yeah. And then as soon as he won the election, he's like, oh, I was just kidding.

Yeah. And then later he came back and said, oh no, I wasn't kidding, we should lock her up. That's true. Right? So he does that all the time, right? And so even if he concedes later, he'll claim that he was kidding, like what he about injecting the bleach into you to cure coronavirus and all other insane things that he said. But in the long run, I agree with you, John.

I mean, it's January 22nd, he's no longer in office at all, and is he saying that he lost? No, at that point, every day, 12 times a day, he's writing hoax, hoax, hoax on Twitter. Yeah. And it's trying to start some sort of Trump TV, which will be a spectacular failure. I can't wait for that. So look, guys, this is all of our theories. We got coverage all day long. We could be wrong.

Yeah. So it's, I mean, it's the day of a lifetime. Yeah. If he does launch to the Trump TV, I wonder which time slot he'll give Dave Rubin. It'll be interesting to see. But anyway, Jenk, thank you for joining us for this hour of coverage, everybody. We've got another hour of sort of a melding of TDR and TYT where we're going to be joined. I'm still going to be here.

But don't worry, we're also going to have Francesca Fiorentini and Ben Dixon. I cannot wait to see what they think going into this day. So we're going to see you in just a few. Thanks for listening to the full episode of The Young Turks. Support our work, listen ad-free, access members-only bonus content, and more by subscribing to Apple Podcasts at apple.com at apple.com slash t-y-t. I'm your host, Shank Huger, and I'll see you soon.