The Young Turks - Part 7 TYT Live: Election Day 2020
Episode Date: November 4, 2020Election Day Part 7: Hosted by Cenk Uygur and John Iadarola TYT is Progressive Headquarters on Election Day. We’ll be tracking the presidential race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and key progre...ssive races around the country featuring a rotating panel of guests. Stay tuned for exit polls, state returns, down-ballot races, and more! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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All right, back on a young turks, Jenk, Anna and David Day, an executive editor of the American prospect has joined us.
David, welcome.
Thanks, sir.
For having me.
Of course.
So I'm going to give you tons and tons of updates here, guys.
and then we'll talk about whether we should be nervous or not.
Okay, so Biden somehow still clinging to a 0.2 lead with 83% reporting in Florida.
We'll come back to that if it gets interesting. Wait, hold on, it just flipped.
Donald Trump has now, just as I was speaking, taking the lead for the first time in a while now,
49.6 to 49.4 in Florida with 85% reporting.
So we'll see if Biden can recapture the lead, but right now Trump now up in Florida.
Okay, and looks very good for him.
Now, let me give you the latest results here from a great number of states.
So Donald Trump has won South Carolina.
He has won Alabama.
On the other hand, Joe Biden has won Delaware.
Joe Biden has won Connecticut.
Joe Biden has won Illinois.
Donald Trump has won Mississippi.
Donald Trump has won Tennessee.
Joe Biden has won Maryland.
Joe Biden has won Massachusetts.
Joe Biden has won New Jersey.
But Donald Trump counters with Oklahoma.
I'm telling you this in rapid succession because all these states were already locked in.
They're very red or very blue.
In fact, that leads me to one of the bluest states in the country.
Joe Biden has won Rhode Island.
Okay, so none of that is surprising so far, but let me also give you more results that are not just a presidential race, okay?
We have, these are also under the category of not surprising, but I want to let you know.
Chris Coos has won re-election in Delaware.
He is one of Biden's friends and close associate in his campaign as well, and a fellow senator from Delaware.
Dick Durbin has won re-election in Illinois that is not surprising.
These are all in the Senate. Ed Markey, who had a very tough primary challenge from Joseph Kennedy,
the third, I do declare. Ed Markey was a more progressive candidate there. He did win that
primary and now has won the general election easily as expected. Corey Booker is re-elected in
New Jersey. Governor Chris Sununu, Republican, is re-elected in New Hampshire. That's unfortunate.
On the other hand, Jean Shaheen, otherwise not known as Mean Shaheen or Mean Gene,
she's not known as either one of those, but she's a Democrat, or not but because she's a Democrat,
and she has won re-election in New Hampshire.
The most, perhaps out of all these unsurprising results, perhaps the most unsurprising,
Jim Inhoff has won his election in Oklahoma.
He'll be going back to the Senate, unfortunately, probably filled with snowballs.
Jack Reed has won in Rhode Island.
He'll be going back to the Senate.
Bill Haggerty is one in Tennessee.
John Carney has one in Delaware.
And those are all the least surprising things you've ever heard.
Now finally, a result that while not surprising is still unfortunate, and this one will sting a little bit.
Mitch McConnell has won re-election in the state of Kentucky and will be going back to the Senate.
So all that money given to moderate Democrat who we were told by Chuck Schumer had the best chance of winning that election.
And it's called instantly.
It turns out no chance at all.
And so she is lost and Mitch McConnell is won.
And the Grim Reaper heads back to the Senate.
All right, before I give more results, David, let me ask that question that I alluded to in the beginning.
Any reason to be worried yet?
I don't think so.
When I looked at this race earlier this week, I didn't really have Florida on my radar as a Biden state.
I think that if you look at where Biden has been successful, it's been with working class whites.
and then where he's been somewhat unsuccessful, it's with Latinos, and really the one place in
Florida where he's running well behind Hillary Clinton is in Miami-Dade County, and that's with
Latino voters. I think the really interesting state to look at right now is Ohio, where in Mahoning
County and in, you know, obviously Cuyahoga, but Lake County, Lorraine County, Lucas County,
the white blue collar areas that, you know, places like where the Lordstown factory was and where
the Chevy Cruz was being built. And Donald Trump said, I'm bringing your jobs back. Nobody
moved from from from Lordstown. And then, you know, nothing happens. And they close down the
facility. Ohio is very, very interesting right now. Biden is winning those counties.
He is, he has a measurable lead right now and there's about 30% or so of the vote in.
It's, you know, that's really one to watch. You know, Trump won Ohio by eight or nine points in 2016.
And, you know, Joe Biden is someone that we knew was going to relate well to older voters to white voters in, in the northern part of the country.
And him doing well in Ohio probably means something about how well he's going to do in Pennsylvania and in Michigan and in Wisconsin.
So if you're if you're looking for something that is hopeful from a Democratic perspective, it's definitely Ohio right now.
I have one other that's hopeful. Now I'm going to give you numbers that are going to confuse you a little bit, but we will explain.
So first of all, with 34% reporting in Ohio, Biden has a 15 point lead. Now, again, this is not a normal.
election. In a normal election, I'd almost call that because that's such a giant lead with
a third of the numbers reporting. But this is not a normal election. They could be counting mail
in votes first and Biden had a huge lead in mail in votes. And New York Times does not have
a number for a percent of chance of winning there. We told you earlier, New York Times
has Florida with Trump 95% chance of winning. And 86% have already reported.
Trump only has a 0.7% lead, but they take in their account other factors, exit polls,
and what other information they have access to. So which leads me to the interesting results,
Trump with a four point lead in Georgia, and New York Times has him at a 78% chance of winning Georgia.
So now that's obviously not good news for Biden because it seemed like Biden might have a real shot at Georgia.
On the other hand, I'm not too worried about, and you could almost be slightly encouraged that Trump only has a 78% chance of winning Georgia, which now we're getting real south, right?
And he's, of course, that's where the strength of the Republican Party is.
Georgia's a different situation because of Atlanta, and you know how close elections sometimes can get there, obviously with the Kemp Abrams election that happened.
that was so close. But here comes the most interesting. North Carolina, only 1% reporting,
but New York Times must have information we don't have access to. Because Trump has a 26-point
lead in North Carolina, but they're saying that Biden has a 66% chance of winning. Now, if you're
new to politics, again, you're going to be freaked out by that. You're yelling hoax throughout the
house if you're on the right-wing side. You're trying to call your friend to figure out what
Q and non conspiracy have in North Carolina? No, it's it's about access to exit polling and
mail and ballot information, et cetera. One percent reporting is nothing, or it's actually less than
1% reporting. So that 26 point lead for Trump means absolutely nothing. And as you've seen
tonight, as you've seen in all of our election coverage, we tell you, if Biden had a 26 point
lead with less than 1% reporting, that would also mean nothing. As we told you earlier about
Biden's lead in Florida, not meaning much or anything at all. And now he's losing.
in Florida. But if the New York Times information is accurate and Biden's really got a 66% chance
of winning North Carolina, that could come close to ending it right there. So it's, I'm not going
to take the New York Times word for it. We want to have more percentage reporting before we get
too excited about that. But David, yes, let me kick it over to you again. I mean, I think the
North Carolina projection is really largely based on pre-election day polling, which showed Biden
with a small but consistent two to three-point lead. So we'll see when the bigger numbers
come in. But we're not talking about 1% of the vote in when you're talking about Ohio.
This is this is 40% of the vote, 40% of what's expected to be in in the books in Ohio,
the estimated vote total. And Biden's got a 5642 lead. That's, it's really interesting. And,
and, you know, obviously all caveats apply. There's going to be wild swings, blue mirages,
red mirages, what have you, throughout this night. But, you know, from where Biden is,
is factoring in compared to where Hillary Clinton was in 2016, I think it's pretty significant.
And what's more significant is that how it looks in Ohio is probably going to be indicative
of how it looks throughout the Midwest.
Yeah, so there's also apparently encouraging numbers coming in from Indiana, even though
Trump is obviously one Indiana, but it's encouraging in the patterns that they're seeing
in the Midwest.
Let me give you a little bit more details on the numbers in Ohio.
It's now 57 to 42, a giant 15 point lead for Biden with 34% reporting.
Again, if it was a normal election, that would be very indicative in this election.
It's a positive sign, but you can't get too excited about it because of the mail-in situation.
Right now, as things stand, Biden has, this is not at all important, even though Biden has a lead here in the New York Times forecast of electoral college, Biden has 85, and Trump has 55.
So Biden's winning by 30, but so far no important swing state has been called.
So that number is largely irrelevant.
We're just having fun and updating you on the score.
But that's not a score that matters even with Biden leading by 30.
Okay, I want to just remind you guys of a couple of other things that we're doing that are fun too.
If we get to 100,000 concurrent viewers, which I think we're really close to between a couple of YouTube channels and Twitch and all the other platforms that we're on,
we're going to release a shirt.
But given that Trump's about to win Florida,
I'm not sure I want to release it yet
because it's an anti-Trump shirt
that has certain assumptions.
Okay, so we'll see.
We'll hold that in our back pocket.
Come on, North Carolina.
Anyways, and obviously, guys,
if you can chip in at t.yt.com slash go,
that's what allows us to have 13 hours of election coverage
for you guys today.
That's what allows us to bring in
all these wonderful progressives together.
Ryan Grimm is on in the next hour.
Ben Manquist is going to join us later.
Nina Turner, Jamal Moman, Karah Eastman,
Mike Siegel, Julie, Oliver, and the list goes on.
So this is headquarters for progressives.
And obviously when we have updates on those races,
we'll let you know about the important Senate and House races as well.
So far, just two.
And there's a little bit of controversy on something that we reported earlier.
So I say too because Mitch McConnell got called, but Paula Jean Swerngen's race was called.
And she's saying online, guys, you called it was 0% reporting.
Okay, I get it, as David was alluding to earlier, you're making assumptions based on earlier polling that you have.
But let's let a couple of votes come in and see how it goes.
And I think that's probably a fair request.
So we reported that call earlier, but I think it's a very fair for Paul of Jean to say,
hold your horses. Let's actually let's see how it turns out.
Eva, yes, Anna, go ahead.
So in the Senate, in Georgia, it looks like Purdue is up so far with 15% of the votes in.
He's up 13%.
And Purdue is a Republican, of course.
Yeah, so Purdue is the guy who got shellacked by Ossoff in that last debate and then ran
and decided not to do the final debate because he was too scared.
And he had that great look on his face like Asop was listing his crimes and his incompetence,
et cetera.
But that doesn't mean that Awesome's going to win.
He was still an underdog going in.
On the other hand, Democrats might pick up the other seat in Georgia.
That's a much more complicated race.
I'll kick it over to David on that in a second.
But I'm going to keep reading you guys comments throughout and we have some of them down below in the ticker as well.
Ava's just joined through t-y-t.com slash join.
She says, just became a member, which I should have done long ago.
I'm with you guys all night over in Colorado.
My stress is through the roof.
But watching is keeping me sane presently.
Keep up to great work.
Also real quick, level three hype train on Twitch.
Oh, so I still don't know what a hype train is and what the levels are, but it sounds super fun that we're on a level three hype train.
Can I see level four?
That's a literal question.
I don't know if there is a level four.
All right, one more comment before we go back to the results.
Joe Bridges has been around since 2007.
Many of my lifestones mirrors yours, marriage, family career.
Proud to be here with you guys at the end of all things.
Well, Joe, I hope it's not the end of all things.
Right.
But we are, we are, if Trump wins, yeah, you might be unfortunately correct.
So we'll see how that goes.
One more shout out to a sponsor as we go.
Aspiration.com slash TYT.
Aspiration has been so great.
They also plant trees.
They also round up.
They plant tant trees when you sign up.
And they don't put your money into any fossil fuels.
I love that companies are going in this progressive direction.
We should support them and they support us.
So it's a win-win, aspiration.com slash t-y-t.
Unfortunately, we have to take another break here.
But when we come back, I want to explain to you the second Georgia Senate election because it's important.
And obviously we'll have more updates, including some good news that is supposed to be on the way.
And I believe we'll arrive soon.
So we'll be right back.
All right, lots of big news for you guys.
Jake, David Day and Anna Kasparian with you guys on election night.
And good news, bad news, let's start with the bad news.
Decision desk HQ is called Florida for Trump.
I am not calling Florida yet, but I'm not sure that that is relevant, whether it's on both
counts, me calling it is not that relevant.
And whether Trump wins or not in Florida is likely not that relevant.
But that is the bad news. Now, let's move on to the good news. In Ohio, with 42% reporting,
Biden's still with a 12-point lead. And more importantly, Delaware County, which is a Republican
stronghold, is coming in for Biden. Now, that's actual good news, because that's specific
context to not just, hey, I can't tell if it's mail-in ballots, I can't tell which county
it's from. No, that indicates that Biden is actually swinging Ohio. Doesn't mean he's going to win
it, okay? But there's a good, there's a much better chance that he wins Ohio now knowing those
details. And there's a better chance that he wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and most
importantly in Pennsylvania, if this is how that region of the country is going. And it looks
like it is going in that direction. So we'll keep you updated on that. And remember, Biden has to
basically just one of the swing states that are in doubt. I don't think Michigan,
Minnesota, and Wisconsin are in doubt. But Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina,
Arizona were in doubt, Georgia in doubt. And so Biden has to just basically win one.
Okay, if it's a little bit more complicated than that, but not much. So then that leads
me to North Carolina, where with 55% reporting, Biden has a 13 point lead.
So if you got freaked out over Florida, if North Carolina and Ohio get called for for Biden,
it's over, over, and Biden's president and we're rid of Trump.
So here comes a hope hype train, or maybe just a hope train.
By the way, for those of you following along at home, we did actually reach level five hype train on Twitch.
And apparently you max out there, everybody arrives at their destination.
You got there so quick.
They go, okay, congrats.
So a super strong Twitch audience, and we love you guys for it.
And I'll read one more comment here because it's a fun one.
And then I'll kick it over to David for an explanation of Georgia.
And you guys have thousands of great comments.
But from our member section, Amos Kosso Jr., right,
saying first time watching election live and my son just asked,
Why do I have to watch the same thing on my computer and live TV?
I responded with TYT is our truth and TV is the other people's truth.
That's a really interesting way of putting you.
The good news is, by the way, our truth is the actual truth.
We do it in numbers, in math, science, logic.
We believe in all those things.
And as you saw in 2016, even if things are not headed in the right direction,
we don't ever fudge the facts.
You got to level with people and tell them exactly what the reality is.
Unfortunately, a lot of the, not just the Fox News and the right wing, but a lot of the mainstream media have their own biases and that are built in.
Not necessarily an agenda, that's debatable, but certainly a giant establishment bias that's built in.
That's partly why they didn't see Trump coming in 2016 and they didn't see Bernie coming in the primaries either.
But if you were watching the young Turks, you did see that coming.
All right, and by the way, if you want to be a member, you hit the join button below on YouTube.
On Twitch, if you have Amazon Prime, it doesn't cost you anything to be a member, but we do get the revenue.
So that's a great win-win, so please do that.
And if you can join in other ways, that'd be great too.
Actually, before I go to Georgia, Anna, you have an update?
Yes, so Justice Dem, Marie Newman, I apologize, is projected to win in Illinois's third district.
So it's excellent.
So we're going to get a bunch of just Democrats that are going to win.
We're going to announce Jamal Bowman soon and Cory Bush soon.
But Marie Newman is on the board.
She's going to Congress.
That's eight Justice Democrats now.
I was led to believe that we couldn't get one.
It's funny how that's working out.
All right, David, break down Georgia for us.
Yeah, so there are two Senate races because Johnny Isaacson, who was previous senator, retired.
And Kelly Loeffler took over for him, so she's having a special election.
That election is kind of like the way primaries are done in California, where every, you get
the vote for anyone on the ballot, and then the top two, provided that nobody gets 50%,
the top two advance to a runoff that's going to be on January the 5th.
Another thing that happens in Georgia is that if nobody in even a general election gets 50%, that goes to a runoff.
And in this case, it will be on January 5th.
That's likely in the Purdue-Asoff race because there's a libertarian there that's expected to get a sufficient number of votes such that nobody will have 50%.
So it's very likely that you could see two Senate elections in Georgia on January 5th.
You know, the Senate begins the next session on January 3rd.
So we might, you know, you could have a 49-49 Senate with two Georgia races outstanding.
As for who's going to likely advance that top two in the second in the special, it's Reverend
Warnock, the Democrat, Reverend Raphael Warnock from Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.
And then there's this dog fight between Loeffler is the incumbent, and Doug Collins is the head
of the House. He's the ranking Republican and the House Judiciary Committee.
They are in a pretty pitch battle over who's more pro-Trump. And so one of them will go to that
runoff with Warnock. But we could also see an Ossoff Purdue runoff in January.
January as well. Yeah, that Loeffler Collins fight is a perfect picture of the Republican Party.
Loughler is the most establishment Republican you'll ever see. She's basically a giant donor
that they handed a Senate seat to because she gave so much money. It's insane. And Doug Collins
is a rabid right winger. So in the same school of thought as Jim Jordan and Matt.
at Gates. So pick your poison, the corrupt or the crazy, and usually both. So that's what we're
contending with in Georgia. And obviously once Warnock gets to the runoff, we're hoping he's
going to knock out either of those folks. And by the way, there was a small chance that Warnock
might have won without a runoff. I never really thought that was too possible. But some
Democrats were hopeful of that, but Joe Lieberman's son entered the race as a moderate Democrat
and siphoned some votes away from Warnock and then made it impossible. So thank you,
Lieberman family, screwing over progressives and Democrats for several decades running now,
we appreciate it. Okay, now back to the heat of the action here. I'm going to read you some
numbers that are just for fun. Pennsylvania, 3% reporting, Biden with a 65 point lead.
But to give you a sense of how meaningless that is, Trump with 2% reporting in Michigan has a 12 point lead.
Both of those numbers mean nothing. So let's move on. Biden's not going to win Pennsylvania by 65 points.
Now here are our numbers that are relevant. North Carolina, Biden still with a with
62% reporting sitting on a big lead, 53.9 to 44.9. So that's basically 54 to 45.
It's a nine point lead with 62% reporting in North Carolina.
If Biden wins North Carolina, the election is not called, but it's right there.
It's almost called. So that's how important North Carolina is. Anna, did you have more updates?
Yeah, so Biden has a nine, in North Carolina, according to the New York Times,
Biden has a nine point, I'm sorry, seven point lead now with 65% reporting.
But the New York Times forecast that Trump has a 66% chance of winning that state.
Wow, that is swung. That's swung a lot.
Yeah.
That's right. Wow. Okay, so that is not good news in North Carolina all of a sudden.
Before you go on to more results, David, does that make you nervous?
Well, you know, we're gonna have to see, you know, I did think that Biden had a measurable lead in North Carolina and the polling. It was pretty stable. So, you know, I wouldn't be shocked if Trump nipped him at the end, but it would be a little bit surprising. You know, there's this northern tier that we don't have a lot of information about except for a lot of.
Ohio right now. And that's, that's sort of, I think the, if you're the Biden team, that's the
story right now is how, how well is that going to hold up in Ohio? And is that going to be
extended out to that, that, you know, what was called in 2016, the blue wall, those states
that, that were locked in allegedly for Hillary Clinton. Yeah, you know, so this is for us
I'm sure that there's a real reason for it.
It's not some sort of agenda or anything like that.
But in Ohio with 44% reporting, Biden has exactly a 10 point lead.
That's where the Democrats are very excited.
But for whatever reason, as they tell you the percentages in Florida,
which turned out to be is so far true that Trump did have a good chance of winning.
And they move the percentages from Biden with a good chance of winning to not in North California.
to not in North Carolina, they don't have a percentage chance of Biden winning in Ohio.
So we do, so that's why that 10 point lead with the mail-in vote situation becomes harder
to predict if it's a real 10 points or not, and if it's going to swing back or not.
Just two quick calls here in the non-surprising category.
Donald Trump has won Arkansas and Tom Cotton has won reelection in Arkansas.
He's, of course, a Republican there.
He's one of the guys who's going to Iowa and South Carolina and those states already game planning for Trump losing.
In fact, to be fair to him or winning this time, it doesn't really matter.
And he's planning on running in 2024.
He's a terrible guy on policy, loves war, wants to bring back the Republican Party.
It combined a noxious form of Trumpism with the horrific neoconservatism.
So, you know, if you think Ted Cruz is bad, he is.
But Tom Cotton ain't any better.
So watch out for that guy.
Okay.
If you guys have more updates, jump in.
But meanwhile, I'm going to read one more comment here.
Ash, Cash, Bagash.
Oh, you got one?
Go ahead, David.
I can tell me it was something that's pretty interesting, you know, Pennsylvania, we had this issue where they couldn't start counting the early vote, or at least preparing the mail-in ballots until 7 o'clock this morning.
Montgomery County, which is outside Philadelphia, kind of a Democratic stronghold, just reported its early vote.
And it was 74,000 for Biden and 8,000 for Trump. It was 89 to 10 in that early vote.
which is another example of how much different the composition of the electorate was in that early period
relative to the election day vote. That's an incredible set of numbers.
Okay, this is, okay, I got a number that I'm definitely encouraged by.
Ohio now up to 49% reporting, and now Biden has pulled up to an 12-point lead.
So unless these numbers are coming in from completely Democratic areas and completely from mail-in voting,
That's a hell of a lead to have with half of the vote reporting.
So if that holds true, you don't have to worry about Florida, North Carolina, or anything else.
That means.
And the important thing is what you were talking about.
Like with certain counties that are coming in blue, like Delaware County.
Delaware County has not gone for a Democrat since 1916.
And it's showing blue right now.
This is the Columbus suburbs and what we knew is that suburban voters was going to be this,
it was a swing in 2018. You saw cities suburban districts in Oklahoma City and Charleston
and Salt Lake City go to Democrats. You know, seeing a number like that in Delaware County
or in Hamilton County, home of Cincinnati, but which also has a lot of outlying suburbs,
Right now with the early votes, 6929 for Biden.
Those numbers make me think that a lot of the things we thought about this election do seem to be coming through if the, even if the Latino vote seems to be moving a little more towards Trump, particularly in South Florida.
So what we're seeing play out there is what people were talking about right before the election,
that Trump was picking up a surprising number of Latino votes and getting a little bit better
with African American vote. But Biden was picking up a lot more white votes and eating into
Trump's base of non-college educated whites. Trump still had a big lead there, but less so than
2016. Most importantly, the suburbs that David was just talking about, seniors, Catholics.
So Biden picking up more of those white voters has leads to two different results. One is, at this
point, there's still more white voters in America than minority voters. So if you're Biden
and you're exchanging white voters for minority voters, just as a matter of pure math, you're
better shape and you would take that trade all day long. Do not do it as a matter of ideology
and don't structure your policy around it. But electorally, that's a good thing. But the second
phenomenon that's really important is what state are we talking about? That's why you're seeing
such disparate results here of, wait, why is Trump winning in Florida? But Biden has got a big
lead in Ohio when we thought it might be the reverse that Biden had the lead in Florida and
Trump had the lead in Ohio, well, it's because of these demographic shifts that we're talking
about. And we're gonna have to keep our eye on that and see if, and we also have to see it
in terms of, is it a shift that's just specific to Biden and Trump? Or is it more of a trend
for Republicans and Democrats? Because if Democrats could put Ohio back in their column in the long
term, that would be nearly decisive. And that would be huge. And but of course,
Yeah, go ahead, David.
I mean, the bigger issue would be if that comes to pass in places like Texas and Georgia.
You are seeing similar issues with suburban voters in those states.
Cobb County, which is likely to go to Biden.
This is New Gingrich country.
Clinton won it by two points, a pretty thin margin with about a third of the vote in Cobb County is something like over 60% Biden.
Williamson County, which is a fast growing county outside of Austin in Texas.
It looks like Biden is going to win that.
Beto O'Rourke won that county in 2018.
So this is a decided shift that's nationwide, no matter the state.
And you even see it in Florida, just not in South Florida.
But Biden picked up counties like Duvall and Pinellas that Clinton did not.
There is a definite shift.
It's not clear yet, as you said, Jenk, whether or not it's just for this election,
just because of a revulsion to Trump or indicative of a broader shift.
But Texas, I think, is still a very interesting state tonight, and so is Georgia.
Yeah, and guys, also the way that the demographics shift throughout the country, throughout all these different elections are so interesting.
That's why I started talking about the Reagan-Carter matchup in 1980, where Carter won West Virginia, but Reagan won California, New York, New Jersey, et cetera.
And now we're in a situation where it just keeps on shifting.
And if we could hold Latinos better, then you hold a suburban white vote.
Oh my God, then you went Ohio and Florida and Georgia and maybe Texas.
So that's the coalition we got to bring together if you're the Democratic Party.
And that would require some degree of unity with progressives and moderate establishment,
corporate Democrats, whatever you want to call them.
Can we have that unity?
That's for the end of the night when we start talking about after we know the result,
what happens next.
But I promised a couple of comments here.
Let me read those real quick.
Ashcash Begash said, today I was supposed to study, but knowing that TYT had live coverage,
I could not get away.
I've learned to be a true progressive from TYT.
It makes a difference.
Thank you so much.
So happy to be watching this with my TYT family.
We're happy to have you, brother.
And if you hit the join button below, if you're watching on YouTube, or if you're watching
anywhere else, t.yt.com slash join.
And especially those on the website, I read their comments more often.
And Brandon Rich, the Rizzer writes, and just became a member long overdue.
You Anna and John have inspired me to become more active.
And I'm considering running for office.
Meteoraker deems need to go.
We need to move the party to the left.
I love it.
Ben Anna Paijank wrote in, are Democrats taking any seats from Republicans?
Do we have a blue wave?
Hold, because we're about to get to that.
We're going to get to it.
And as we go to the break here, guys, remember, t.
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All right. Back on a young church, Jank, Anna and David Dan, with you guys.
Sala. Man, these are nerve-wracking nights. They really are. This one was supposed to be easy.
And well, I tell you, it's at the end of the night when it's all tallied up, if Biden runs the table in the Midwest, it will have appeared easy in hindsight.
But as we're in the middle of it right now, and that'll look easy. So Trump has a greater than 95% chance of winning Florida.
Some have already called Florida. Let me give you more bad news before I turn to the good news. Biden, and again,
And all these situations are unusual because of the mail-in voting, has a five-point lead in
North Carolina with 70% reporting.
Normally, that would be fantastic news.
But in this case, New York Times says Trump has a 76% chance of winning North Carolina.
And in Georgia, with only 26% reporting, Trump has a 13-point lead.
And New York Times says he has an 84% chance of winning that.
But now let's go to the good news. Anna, tell us about Pennsylvania.
So based on what the New York Times is reporting, Biden has a massive lead in Pennsylvania so far.
Keep in mind that 10% reporting and Biden's at a 31 point lead.
So that's pretty massive. That's definitely a good sign. So we'll see how it goes.
So David, let's go to Pennsylvania now. We touched on it earlier, but we
We haven't really dove into it too much in Pennsylvania, arguably the most important state in this election, because Trump's got to have it to win.
So it's only 10% reporting, but how encouraged are you by a 31 point lead?
Well, that's early vote.
You know, Pennsylvania has been a pretty secure four to five point lead.
There would have to be a polling error of around that for Pennsylvania to go.
to Trump. I know there was a lot of activity, a lot of organizing. You saw Biden crisscross
the state, Biden and Harris on Monday. They've spent a tremendous amount of time there. I know
they've done a lot of organizing. We had a great piece over the weekend from one of our writers,
Marcia Brown, about a Facebook group called Pennsylvania Women for Biden Harris that has
a hundred and twenty four thousand members all organizing. And it's almost like a support network for women
who some might be in conservative areas of Pennsylvania who talk maybe their husbands or their
fathers are conservative and they go there for support. I know that people have been working
their hearts out in Pennsylvania. And I can't say very much about what the early vote shows
because we know that these universes of who votes earlier and who votes later completely different.
But I know that you cannot say like you said in 2016 with Hillary Clinton never went
to Wisconsin. You can't say that about Pennsylvania. She was, Joe Biden was intimately focused.
And the Biden campaign was intimately focused on Pennsylvania this entire election.
Yeah, and folks, so when people talk about polling, everybody knows that it could,
there's two different theories. The folks who believe in polling say,
Poland could of course always be off by two to three points.
There are extraordinary circumstances where folks got some things wrong on a big scale.
The example I always use as Michigan primary in 2016 on the Democratic side where Bernie Sanders was supposed to lose by 18 but one by two.
So that's extraordinary.
And I think the number one problem that they were doing in 2016 was relying too heavily on likelihood.
rather than registered voters, and that in the past would have made sense, but it was really
throwing off the polling with Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump bringing in so many unlikely
voters.
A lot of the polls have adjusted for that now.
So I'm in the camp that they could be off by a couple of points here and there in 2020.
There's the other camp which says, no, polling is nonsense, the only one I believe is Republican
polls and they have Trump winning when no one else does.
I don't know what to do with that.
And I know that there's some on the left who also don't believe in polling at all,
partly because they were shell shocked by what happened in 2016.
But if you were watching the Young Turks, you weren't shell shocked.
And so, and remember, just it's more complicated in this because the swing states
varied much more wildly in 2016.
But at the national level, the polling said that Hillary Clinton was supposed to win by three,
and she won by two.
So there you have it, a normal one point swing in a poll.
and Trafalgar, which is in my mind totally trash pulled by the Republicans, that they brag got
some of the swing states right in 2016. Well, nationwide, they were off by five. They thought
that Trump was going to win by three and he lost by two, the popular vote. So that's context
for you guys. And so I tell you that as a prelude to, I need you to remember.
remember that polling could be off by three in different states in opposite directions.
So it could be that pulling is off by three in Florida and that decides it goes from Biden
being up by one to Trump winning by two. But in Ohio, let's say that it's off by three
and it and it was about around time and Biden wins comfortably. Or maybe it's even off by
more in Ohio. We don't know that yet. But it's we've got encouraging signs. So it's not as
simple as are the polls off? And that means either Trump is doing better or Biden's doing better.
No, it might depend on the state. I'm going to read a comment from one of you guys because we do this
show together and your membership makes all the difference to us. Jason said my girlfriend
Ashley and I both just signed up for $10 a month membership at t.yt.com slash join long time
watcher and I got her hooked on the channel. Love you, sweetie. How sweet is that?
They're not just talking to us and we're not just talking to them. They're talking to each other.
Okay.
We bring people together here at TYT.
I mean, is that what we do, I guess?
I guess that's what we do.
All right.
So Anna, any more further update?
I have one.
We moved one point in Ohio, 51% reporting.
And now it's 54.1 to 44.7.
So still holding on to about a 9.5 point lead, a little over 9 point lead for Biden in
Ohio. If that holds, that would be terrific news. Indiana just got called. So Donald Trump
wins Indiana. I would have thought that it would have gotten called earlier. Unsurprisingly,
Governor Phil Scott has won in Vermont, but if you don't know, you might be surprised because
he's a Republican who's won re-election as governor of Vermont. On the other hand, Phil Scott is the
only Republican governor that went on the record today and said, I voted for Biden. So, interesting
mixed bag there. Yes, Anna. In the Senate, Kelly Loughler seems to be up by 0.6% with 29% reporting.
If she wins that election, I mean, remember, she didn't get elected into that Senate seat.
If she wins the election, though, would be pretty sad. I mean, she's this giant Trump loyalist.
Her husband is the head of the New York Stock Exchange. I genuinely believe that she engaged in insider trading.
based on a Senate meeting that basically gave her all the information about how serious COVID
was. And then she proceeded to downplay the virus publicly while all these suspicious trades
were happening behind the scenes with stocks and everything. So I don't know, we'll see.
It's a tiny, tiny lead. But I'm very curious to see how that Senate race turns out.
Yeah. I mean, Losser won't win tonight. She would have to, if she would have to, if she
If that halt, she would have to go face probably Reverend Warnock in January.
Yep. Cyber God 09 with a very generous contribution on Super Chat. We appreciate it.
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So I'm going to read one more comment from you all in the member section,
Oskravee, right?
And thank you, TYT for providing an alternative to corporate media.
Let's remember that no matter the results of the election, we still have a fight ahead of us.
Mutual aid, direct action, and solidarity forever, much love, right there with your brother.
And actually, I'm going to do one last one.
Corge likely C says, it's nice to hear David's commentary and analysis again, joining our standard bearers.
Thanks, TYT.
Well, thank you for coming on, David.
David, we got a minute left.
What was your, I'm curious in the t.com slash pool, what was your,
electoral college prediction?
I believe I had 322 to 216 for Biden.
I had him winning Georgian and North Carolina, but not Florida.
And then I did not have him winning Ohio.
And I had him with, you know, the other Midwestern states in Arizona.
So, you know, I think I think North Carolina, we, we still.
don't know a whole lot about North Carolina. That's mostly early boat. And we'll see what happens
in Georgia. Fulton County still is yet to be counted fully. But, you know, this is shaping up
to be a night that's going to take a little bit of time before we really get a real sense
of what's happening. And, you know, everyone wanted Florida to be in the bag. So it was an early
night, but we're not going to get that. Yeah. And so far, at least we know it's not an early
night. David Dane, executive editor of American Prospect. Everybody check out American
Prospect. They do some great, great work there. And speaking of progressive standard
bearers, we go from David Dane to Ryan Grimm when we return. He's the Washington
Bureau chief of the intercept, of course, and a TYT contributor. And we've got more updates
for you guys. I'll give you one last one before we go. 52% reporting now in Ohio. And Biden
holds a nine point lead much more updates when we come back like and share the stream we'll be
right back thanks for listening to the full episode of the young turks support our work
listen ad-free access members only bonus content and more by subscribing to apple podcasts at
apple dot co slash t yt i'm your host jank huger and i'll see you soon