The Young Turks - Tin Foil Hacks

Episode Date: July 12, 2024

Morning Joe suggests jealous ex-President Obama is behind Clooney's Biden op-ed. Joe Biden introduces Volodymyr Zelensky as ""President Putin."" Cenk debates historian Allan Lichtman about whether Joe Biden should step aside. Schumer is open to dumping Biden on the 2024 Democratic ticket." HOST: Ana Kasparian (@anakasparian), Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) SUBSCRIBE on YOUTUBE: ☞ https://www.youtube.com/user/theyoungturks FACEBOOK: ☞ https://www.facebook.com/theyoungturks TWITTER: ☞ https://www.twitter.com/theyoungturks INSTAGRAM: ☞ https://www.instagram.com/theyoungturks TIKTOK: ☞ https://www.tiktok.com/@theyoungturks 👕 Merch: https://shoptyt.com ❤ Donate: http://www.tyt.com/go 🔗 Website: https://www.tyt.com 📱App: http://www.tyt.com/app 📬 Newsletters: https://www.tyt.com/newsletters/ If you want to watch more videos from TYT, consider subscribing to other channels in our network: The Watchlist https://www.youtube.com/watchlisttyt Indisputable with Dr. Rashad Richey https://www.youtube.com/indisputabletyt The Damage Report ▶ https://www.youtube.com/thedamagereport TYT Sports ▶ https://www.youtube.com/tytsports The Conversation ▶ https://www.youtube.com/tytconversation Rebel HQ ▶ https://www.youtube.com/rebelhq TYT Investigates ▶ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwNJt9PYyN1uyw2XhNIQMMA Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You're listening to The Young Turks, the online news show. Make sure to follow and rate our show with not one, not two, not three, not four, but five stars. You're awesome. Thank you. Hungry now. Now. What about now? Whenever it hits you, wherever you are, grab an O. Henry bar to satisfy your hunger. With its delicious combination of big, crunchy, salty peat.

Peanuts covered in creamy caramel and chewy fudge with a chocolatey coating. Swing by a gas station and get an O'Henry today. Oh hungry, oh Henry! All right, live from the Polymarket studio in L.A. Young Turks, Jank U Granik is sparing with you guys, Giant Show. So a couple of really important things that are happening. So number one, the tide has turned again. I don't even know where the tide is now, okay?

Tide goes in, tide goes out, you can't explain it. Well, we're gonna try to explain it, okay? We're gonna try to defy Bill O'Reilly and explain it. So right now the tide is rising badly against Biden. So we're gonna and then the people pushing back, it's this giant war, game of throw, it's like war that's happening right now as we speak. So we're gonna get to that in just a second. But I also want to remind you that in 15 minutes, roughly, I'm going to be debating.

Professor Allen Lickman right here on the show. He's got his keys and he's going to jingle jangle them. He's got all 13 keys. He's going to try to unlock a victory in that debate. Be nice. Okay. So hey, listen, maybe he's going to school me like he said in the video. So let's find out.

He might. You never know. You know, don't underestimate your opponent. My sense, the reason why I, first of all, Anyway, I'll save it for most of it for the debate, but I'll just say, I think that the chance is much higher than he's underestimating his opponent. You are so giddy right now. He's so excited, look at him. The keys are jingle jangling. All right. Okay, all right, anyways, guys, huge

stories on Biden, let's do it. Well, why don't we begin with the tinfoil hacks? This wasn't George Clooney. But, but, well, what do you mean? It just wasn't, come on. Well, who do you think it was? Matt Damon? It was not Matt Damon. Who do you think it was? Who do you think it was?

Who do you think it was? You can say the name. You won't melt. It's not Baltimore. Are you saying you think Barack Obama put him up to this? I think that Barack Obama has a lot of influence and I think that there's a lot there. There's a lot there. There's a lot there, Willie.

There were two people in this picture and one has had a presidency that was a lot there. presidency that was absolutely undeniably historic. Yeah. Well, I think you have two people that had extraordinarily historic president. Oh, I'm sorry. Historic in terms of legislative accomplishments. Well, that was an incredible moment.

Not only is Mika Brazinski alleging that Obama is basically pulling strings to destroy Biden behind the scenes, she's also alleging that Obama, compared to Biden, failed miserably when it comes to legislative victories. But the clause are clearly out. You see it on Morning Joe every morning now, and it's out in a way that's, in my opinion, very reminiscent of, like, cult-like behavior you might see on the right. Yeah. You know, I took one other huge takeaway from that.

If any progressive had said what they just said about Obama, their career would be over. They'd be tart and feathered and taken out of town immediately. She just said one of these men had a historic presidency and then had to be reminded by Joe Scarborough. Maybe you shouldn't say that considering you're downplaying the historic nature of a biracial president. Yeah, the first black president, if any progressive had said, ah, he's not historic, gone. Okay, let's say she misspoke. I think she did, right? I think she forgot that part.

She corrected it. No big deal, right? But even so, a progressive would be beheaded politically and be done. But then she said he had no historic accomplishments. He did Obamacare. Like if a progressive said no big, no accomplishments, Obama care is no big deal. They'd be, how dare you? You hate the Democratic Party.

You will love Trump. And you have transgressed against Obama. The biggest sin there is in Democratic politics. But the minute they want to protect their friend Joe Biden and protect access to their friend who's the president and who watches their show and would keep watching their show if he would. one reelection, all of a sudden, Obama, who cares? Obama care, who cares? Who cares all the times we yelled at progressives? Let's just get crap all over Obama now, because it suits our purposes.

Oh, okay, interesting how that developed. So the heart of this discussion has to do with the fact that George Clooney penned that op-ed in the New York Times, we covered it yesterday, and in that op-ed, he discloses that during a giant fundraiser for Joe Biden, a few weeks prior to his disastrous debate performance, You know, everyone who held that fundraiser for him, everyone who was at that fundraiser, including Clooney himself, noticed that his physical condition and mental condition had declined significantly, and they were concerned about what that would mean for the race, but they didn't know what to do at that point. The debate was only weeks away, what are you going to do?

And so I guess a lot of Democrats, a lot of donors who were at that fundraiser kind of had their fingers crossed hoping that everything would go well with the debate, clearly it didn't. Clooney pens this op-ed. And so the idea is that Barack Obama is behind the scenes trying to destroy Joe Biden because what? He's jealous of Joe Biden? Or could it be, he's genuinely concerned that Joe Biden is going to fail, that he's not going to be able to beat Donald Trump because the big lie, the big issue that has been concealed from the American public is now out in the open. And a lot of independent voters are questioning whether they would want to vote for someone who is showing significant signs of mental decline.

Now, with all of that context in mind, here's more of the conversation on Morning Joe this morning. The Biden campaign and many Democratic officials do believe that Barack Obama is quietly working behind the scenes to orchestrate this. Joe Biden is deeply resentful of his treatment under not only the Obama staff, but also the way he was pushed aside for Hillary Clinton. He's deeply resentful of those trying to shove him out of the way. He's always felt like an outsider, always felt like people have looked down upon him. So I guess now we're at a place where there's a war against the last. Last insanely popular Democratic president, Barack Obama. Yeah, and remember Barack Obama enormously popular, as Zana's pointing.

Do you know that after inauguration, Obama was at 82% approval rating? Which is crazy. Do you know that Joe Biden right now is at 37% approval rating? 82 versus 37. Gee, I wonder who is the more successful Democratic president? Now look, Obama went down a little bit into the 50s. Okay, sometimes he very rarely, he dipped in the 40s and went right back in the 50s, obviously one reelection, et cetera.

But wait a minute, are we talking about Biden being the outsider? Mr. I've lived in Washington for the last 285 years. Career politician. Career politician, the senator from MBNA, which was a credit card company back in the day, versus Barack Obama, the kid who grew up in Hawaii with no connections at all, put aside race. He didn't have any connections to anyone in power. So look, by the end, I think Barack Obama became a massive insider and is part of this.

It's obviously a giant part of the establishment, but saying that Obama's an insider versus Joe Biden, who's an outsider, is preposterous. And so guys, this is the interesting part. Biden, and we told you this before, he caught feelings in 2016 when Obama talked him out of running, right? And he thought he could have won then. So now he thinks like Obama's on a war path against them. I don't think so, I got a lot of issues with Obama, I've heard those out, and been

canceled for it, etc. But apparently you can do that now. But in terms of what Obama said in 2016, he wasn't wrong. He said, hey, you'll fit, you might finish fifth in Iowa and then get embarrassed, etc. He did finish fifth in Iowa. In 2020, he lost the first three races very, very badly, even in the election that he won. The only reason that Biden is president right now is because Barack Obama not only picked him as vice president. First of all, if Barack Obama doesn't pick you as vice president, I got news for you, Joe Biden, your career was over a long time ago. He did you the biggest solid in the world.

Whoever Obama picked his vice president had an excellent chance of being president. If he didn't pick you, you're nothing. You would have been a great legendary senator. I don't dispute that. Second of all, if Obama didn't gather everybody in South Carolina and tell Klobuchar and Clyburn and Buttigieg and all those guys, you are all. All going to rally around Biden so we could defeat Bernie Sanders. Joe Biden would not have been president at all.

So he owes Obama on two gargantuan levels, but he's still bitter about 2016. You know why? Because Joe Biden's an egomaniac, and anyone who slightly criticizes them or says, hey Joe, I don't know if you'd do well in that situation, he catches feelings forever. And he holds that grudge forever, because he's not a statesman, he's a petty politician. who he is. So keep it real. Yeah. I just look, I'm just incredibly disgusted with how much these people put their own personal power above the best interests of the country. They don't, they don't care about anything other than their positions of power. That's what this is

about. It's about a power struggle. And it's just so incredibly disgusting to me. And at the end of the day, I think the Democratic voters are justified in their concern that Joe Biden, someone who has these ailments that were concealed from Democratic voters, and it just kind of blew up during that debate, they're concerned that this guy's not going to be able to beat Donald Trump. And by the way, this is the electorate that they have been fear mongering to about the threat of Donald Trump for years now, for years. So they're upset at the monster that they created. Yeah.

And so, by the way, this proves a second thing I was saying that was right. And again, somebody saw all that sounds conspiratorial. I said, look, for how long now, you know, at least six months, Axelrod and Carville have been out there going, no, we need someone else, we need someone else. And I kept saying, who do you think Axelrod and Carvels speak for? They speak for the Obamas or for the Clintons, they're their top advisor. How much clear did they need to be? And people like, oh, you're a conspiracy theory.

I literally in a debate, somebody said that was a conspiracy theory that Axelrod would speak for Obama. Now all of a sudden you got Clooney checking in with Obama and then speaking out against Biden, et cetera. So it's not like Obama isn't telling his advisors, you got to help the country and the Democratic Party make a change. It appears he is and has been for a long time. I was totally right about that. Axelrod doesn't go out without asking Obama. That's not a thing that happens. You think Obama wasn't involved in pulling some strings when it came to the Democratic primary?

he's in previous years? Yeah, I mean, he hands, like I just said earlier, he hands elected Joe Biden to make sure that Bernie Sanders wouldn't win. So now you're all of a sudden catching feelings that Obama's, that time he wasn't a little involved. He was massively involved. And in this case, he's trying to be as polite as possible while trying to wake you up to the reality.

So not only that the Democrats don't lose and we don't lose democracy, but that you yourself don't get humiliated, Joe, but you won't listen to him. Because you're a stubborn jackass who thinks, I'm going to be as good as Obama. I'm gonna have two terms like he did. I'm going to be historic. Well, that's not how it's working out. And now you're saying for your own vanity,

you'll risk the whole country. And that is despicable. So what I'm curious about is, sure, I do think that Obama behind the scenes has some sway. And it is true and it has been reported that George Clooney checked in with Obama before pending that op-ed in the New York Times. I'm guessing because Clooney, after seeing Joe Biden, was concerned about his ability to beat Donald Trump in the general election.

But what about all of the Democratic lawmakers who are now lining up both in the House and in the Senate, slowly but surely, asking Biden to step down? Did Obama pull every single one of them aside and put thoughts in their heads or coerce them into making these statements? So far, 11 House members and Senator Peter Welch have publicly urged Biden to drop out of the race. Many more lawmakers have voiced their concern, but they haven't gone as far as asking Biden to drop out. Michael Bennett is a good example. He's a senator who we covered on the show yesterday. And while Michael Bennett certainly had some pretty harsh things to say about Biden's unlikely chances of beating Donald Trump, he didn't go so far as to ask him to step down.

And a new Axios report finds that Biden will face a new deluge of calls by Democratic lawmakers to drop out. It's just that they have decided to listen to Nancy Pelosi, heat her warnings, and wait until the NATO summit is over. And speaking of the NATO summit, some news just broke about- Hold on. I just want to correct one thing, unless I heard you're wrong. Representative Marie Glucencamp Perez, Democrat of Washington, this is relatively breaking. breaking news happened just before we got on air, has said that Biden should step down from the presidency. This is a Congresswoman?

Congresswoman. Yeah, okay, so that, yeah, that means we now have a dozen members of the House who want him to drop out, and at least one senator who is on the record saying that he wants Biden to drop out as well. And again, there are likely going to be more Democratic lawmakers coming out with these statements, urging Biden to step down, they're just waiting until the NATO summit is over. Biden's gonna hold a press conference today. Some are hoping that the press conference will, you know,

alleviate some of the panic and the fears. Other elected lawmakers are saying the press conference or not, doesn't really matter because his mental decline is going to continue to progress. So he might be able to handle a press conference. We don't know, but it's not going to be enough, right? And so hold on, let me just finish in regard to the NATO point that I want to make. He made a huge mistake while introducing Vladimir Zelensky, who of course is the leader of Ukraine at the NATO summit. He introduced him as Vladimir Putin.

So let's let's do this right. So breaking news, guys, while we're on the air, Biden's at the NATO summit. He's introducing Zelensky. Let's show you the tape of what happened. And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine, who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, President Putin, you can beat President Putin, President Zelensky. I'm so focused on beating Putin. We've got to worry about it.

Anyway, Mr. President, I'm better. You are a hellhawk better. Yeah, over. Totally over. I mean, this is the day he's supposed to prove himself. He's supposed to do a press conference. That's the big boy press conference. He hasn't even gotten to the press conference yet, and immediately falls on his face.

Especially when you have all of this attention on you. You cannot introduce President Zelensky as his main enemy, President Putin. I think after, we haven't even gotten to the press conference yet, and it's already over. Everybody's going to go nuts over this, Anna. This is not sustainable. I mean, I'm already at a loss of words. We've been covering this ever since the disastrous debate performance. I'm shocked that there are still people who have deluded themselves into thinking that Biden has

a good chance of beating Donald Trump. I'm angry at those who have enabled the cover up for as long as they've enabled it. I don't have a short attention span and I have good memory. And I remember raising the concerns about Biden's mental decline in 2019 and 2020. And we were smeared over and over again as Trump, secret Trump supporters, oh, these nefarious young Turks, oh, these nefarious progressives. It's because they can't have their guy be the Democratic nominee. I don't even care about that. I want to be abundantly clear. It's over for Bernie Sanders.

Bernie Sanders isn't vying to be president of the United States, okay? And I don't even know if there are really any other progressives in Congress at all. So this isn't a progressive Democrat versus establishment Democrat war, okay? This is about getting people accurate information about the Democratic candidate and also just coming to terms with the fact that you have a whole media apparatus and you have an entire political party that covered up the truth from Democratic voters and there's still a sizable portion of those voters who get angry at you for telling them the truth. Yep. So when he was at G7 meetings earlier, now new reporting from Sienna and saying that a lot of the other, people that he was dealing with world leaders were concerned because he was always so tired and he wouldn't show up to a lot of meetings he would on a five

day trip he needed two days of rest and as always both in these foreign trips and also here at home very tightly held to a close group of advisors the top one is of course the first lady Jill Biden and they basically don't let him see anyone else outside of a controlled environment. That means they know, they know that outside of a controlled environment, he's going to melt. And in the simplest introduction in the world, you just saw him melt. And guys, last thing on this is the context. So if you stumble and you accidentally say the same wrong name once, no big deal, people

do that all the time, right? But if you hear disingenuous hacks now go, oh, it's just a stumble, it's no big deal. Within the context of his infinite number of so called stumbles, and the fact that he couldn't finish sentences in the debate, the fact that he said we defeated Medicare, in another interview where he was supposed to prove himself and already had the questions in front of him, already had the answers in front of him prepared by staff, he said he was the first black woman to serve with the first black president. In the ABC interview, he said he's the goodest there is. Come on guys, it's over, over.

I mean, if you need more evidence, including, by the way, this next video will give you evidence of what I'm saying in regard to the media taking part in the cover up. Why don't we listen to what Chuck Todd recently said on his program about what was disclosed to him two years ago about Joe Biden. Let's watch. Jonathan, I don't want to out. I'm not going to out the cabinet secretary. Right. But I had a cabinet secretary two years ago. Right.

Okay. two years ago, out of the blue, ask me, do you really think he's got, he can't run again like this? And I said, well, you have more interaction with him and I do. And they said, I don't have a lot of interaction with him. This is a pretty senior cabinet secretary. So, and this was two years ago. This is one of those, you know, it's the classic open secrets, a non-versation, right? It's the story everybody knows and no one was, everybody was afraid to talk about. This is a Biden White House secretary. Do you understand?

This is someone within his cabinet who disclosed this to Chuck Todd two years ago. But there's more. Let's go to graphic two here. Amanda Turkle, a reporter, shares that several of Biden's closest allies, including three people directly involved in reelection efforts. Told reporters that they now see his chances of winning as zero, quote, he needs to drop out. One of Biden's campaign officials said he will never recover from this. No one involved in the effort thinks he has a path set a second person working to elect him.

These are people who work closely with him. These are people who work on his reelection campaign. Okay, but anyone who shares this information, this accurate. information to Democratic voters gets viciously attacked, which by the way, viciously attacked me. I don't care, okay? I'm not like these other wannabe journalists and reporters and cable news anchors who are afraid of online mobs. I love the online mobs. Come and come for me. I'm not going to lie to my audience to appease the online mobs. But this is the reality of the situation. Okay, the Democratic voters, they've been had. And the question is, are they just going to sit by and take it as we

barrel toward an iceberg or are they going to demand better from their party? Yeah. So last thing on this for now, number one, they knew. They all knew he was too old. The cabinet secretaries knew. The advisors knew. They've been hiding him the whole time. Everybody knew that they were hiding him. The reporters knew they were hiding him. They all knew, but hey, you all have to support the powerful because the whole point of the press is to support the powerful and to do propaganda, right? The whole point of those advisors to hold on to their jobs, their power, and not care about you. And right now, not only did they know, they know now, and what they know now is not

just that he's too old, but as his closest advisors are saying, they're saying the thing that I've been saying all this time and everybody said, oh my God, Jane, you're totally nuts. I said he doesn't have 50% chance, he doesn't have 30% chance, he has a near 0% chance. Every time I said that, people would lose their minds. Now here's his top advisors going, don't you guys realize he has a near 0% chance of winning? Of course, of course. And the only reason why everyone else didn't see it is because they created an alternate reality. They created their own cult.

And that's why I call it Blue Maga. And I actually don't blame the people inside of it because they were listening to cable news. They were listening to Morning Joe, they were listening to the view. And if that's all you watched, you would have thought Joe Biden was leaning the whole time. And that he was in great shit because that's what they would always tell you, lie after lie after lie. If you're in Blue Maga and now you see his top advisors saying, yeah, zero percent chance, you get now that they all lied to you? They definitely did. And it's, and if Biden doesn't drop out, it's going to cost us certainly the election.

And if you believe what they were saying all along, maybe even democracy. But at this point, especially with the Putin gaff, it's over. I told you he's definitely going to drop out. And you could definitely quote me on that. Okay. But now when we come back, Professor Alan Linkman has been waiting patiently. We're going to have him on. He's going to argue that Biden can win.

Fascinating. But he's got 13 keys. I have one key. We'll have that debate when we come back. All right, welcome back to the Young Turks. Jake Ugar here, I'm now going to discuss slash debate the issue whether Joe Biden should stay in the race and he has any chance of winning or not with Professor Alan Lickman, he's got 13 keys. Professor Lickman, welcome to the show. Thank you. I'm delighted to be here to have this opportunity be on your channel.

Yep, and he says he's gotten the last 10 out of 10 elections, right? We're going to discuss that in a second. But Professor Lickman asked me to start the proceedings, lay out my case so that he can counter it. So I will do that, no problem. So first, let's go through the polling right now, catch you guys up on the context and where we are, and then I will ask Professor Lickman about his key. So first, let's look at the polling. Overall, this is the aggregate in polls from real clear politics.

And what we've got here is Joe Biden at 36.8%. And disapproval is at 57.3%. So his approval is, let's be generous and say 37. That's a disaster. As I have pointed out many, many times, it is almost never the case that if you're in the 30s as an incumbent, that you could win, we'll come back to that issue in a second. Now let's take a look at how the polling is going in the specific race between Trump and Biden. Again, real clear politics average here.

I'm sorry, the earlier chart was from 538. This is from real clear politics. You see Trump has an aggregate three point lead and he is winning in every single poll. Important point here, guys, is that the Democratic candidate has to win by about five points in order to win the electoral college. So that means that Joe Biden is in effect down eight points, not three points in aggregate. He won by four and a half points last time in the popular vote, but barely squeaked out an electoral college victory with only 44,000 votes, making the difference in three swing states. Finally, in terms of those aforementioned swing states, let's look at the real clear politics average on those as well. Oh, look at that. Trump is winning every swing state and some very comfortably.

The fact that Nevada is now 5.2 in aggregate on Trump's side is devastating. That used to, that was. It's trending very much towards the Democrats. Pennsylvania has been solidly blue for, in my opinion, for a long time. I know it's in the swing state category lately because of the changes that are happening in the Midwest. But again, a 5.3% lead there for Trump is devastating. And I'll leave it at that for now. I got one more poll for Professor Lickman in a second. But Professor Lickman, you have your 13 keys.

Correct. Yeah, and you're gonna tell us about that. them. But correct, one of the top critiques of your analysis, including by me, Professor Lickman is, it's not that your keys are crazy or off or wrong, it's that you're too wedded to them as end all, be all, and it appears that you're making a problem or a mistake is thinking that correlation equals causation. And I'll tell you more specifically why I think you're making that mistake as we go on. But I got to let you respond now. Thank you very much.

And this is a debate that should never have happened because there is no comparison between my record of predicting elections and the record of Jenk and all the other critics of Joe Biden. Those critics have zero, I repeat, zero track record in predicting elections, including Jank. In his video, he said he predicted two elections, 2012, which he did not document, in 2016, which he did try to document. But one of his followers pointed out to me, his documentation was fundamentally misleading. I did my research. His documentation came from July 2016. And as his follower indicated, he then changed his prediction of Trump.

And I found the clip. Just three weeks before the election, Jenk predicted that Hillary Clinton would win because she was so far ahead in critical state polls, the kinds he's citing right now. And I caught a clip of Jenk after the election in which he said Hillary Clinton should reasonably have been expected to be president-elect because the polls pointed that way. He never claimed to have predicted a Donald Trump victory, which would have been a huge feather in his cap. But beyond that, his record or prediction is even more suspect. He predicted Bernie Sanders would be the Democratic nominee in 2020 and would beat Donald Trump. He said that Joe Biden,

if he was the nominee, would have no chance to beat Donald Trump. Now, let's look at some of those polls, and I'll get to my keys in a moment. Jenk is fighting the last war. He's not up to date on the polls. A whole new series of polls have come out in the last two days, which fundamentally contradict Jenk's argument. We had a Washington post ADC poll that just came out and it said Biden's debate did not shift the race at all, that it remains a dead heat.

between Biden and Trump, whether you look at them one to one or throw in the other candidates. But even perhaps more revealing is the approval numbers that came out today in the Washington Post, ABC polls. Trump at 34% approval, 59% disapproval, a 25-point underwater result. Biden at 42% approval, not 36, 50% disapproval, 8% underwater. In other words, Trump is three times more underwater than Biden. And then another poll just came out of the swing states. It was so startling Fox News, hardly a pro-Biden outlet, had a big headline saying, Surprise Swing State polls.

It looked at three states where Biden had been behind, as you point out, It's now after the debate, and Biden is now ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. He's trailing in Arizona, but he's in striking distance. But as we know, polls months before the election have no predictive value. The keys do. They've been right 10 out of 10 since 1984. The dean of American political science, Gerald Pomper, said they were the most successful prediction system of our time, right in 2016. and going all the way back to the 80s, I twice keynoted the International Forecasting Summit and the American Political Science Association called the keys the classic model of forecasting.

And they show why what Jenk and the critics are proposing would lead the Democrats likely down to the primrose path of defeat. The way my 13 keys work is if six or more go against the White House party, they are predict. losers. If Biden runs, the Democrats tick off incumbency. He's the president. They tick off the contest key because 87% of primary vote is voted for him. That's who put him in as nominee, not members of Congress. So that means of the remaining 11 keys, six would have to fall to predict his defeat. We follow the advice of Jenk and the critics. They lose the incumpancy key. They lose the contest key because there's no consensus successor. And that means only four more keys would have to fall. Final point, you know, Jenk and the critics

say there's some great candidate out there who's going to do so much better than Joe Biden. False. Emerson College, a very respected independent polling operation, tested that. They looked at head-to-head contests and they found again Donald Trump in a dead heat with Joe Biden, Joe Biden 50, Donald Trump 50, and they looked at nine of the most common alternative candidates and they all trailed Donald Trump by five points to 10 points. Look, I'll handle this super quickly because this isn't about me or you. It's about getting the audience the right information to figure out what's actually going to happen here.

So in terms of my predictions, brother, I've been super honest about all of them. I know you think it's a got you, but we've talked about it on air a million times. So for example, in 2016, I said in July at the height of Hillary Clinton that Donald Trump was going to win and why? Because I said we're the country's in a populist mood. She's the most establishment candidate. So I look at these trends, these patterns, et cetera. Now, on election day, you've got certain polling, and the polling is likely to be true. And it was true. She did win the popular vote. But we said at the very beginning of that broadcast, myself and Ban Banquins, we said, look, Trump's got about a 30, 35% chance of winning. So all these folks,

like, having the Post had it at 98%. We're like, that is nonsense. Trump definitely has a chance of winning despite the fact that it's election day and Hillary Clinton has what appears to be a large lead. So when you look at the trace, I don't know anyone who predicted that Bernie Sanders could catch Hillary Clinton back in 2013, back in 2013 when everybody thought it was crazy. But we can go on and about our records all day long. It's not at all relevant. What is relevant though, Professor Lickman, is whether you can be honest and objective instead of trying to prove yourself right. So for example, I looked up, hey, you know, you know, You know, you said that I was getting it wrong that no incumbent in the 30s had ever won.

And you pointed out, Harry Truman. Not what I said. Not what I said. Okay, go ahead, clarify then real quick. What did you say? What I said was if you hit outside the keys and just look at history, forget the keys. Since 1900, no incumbent party has ever won when there is an open seat and a contested nomination, Whereas when there is a sitting president running and no contest, they've won the great majority of times.

Yeah, no, no, that's your key. I'm saying that if an incumbent is in the 30s, he almost always loses. But to be fair, what I was going to say is that I was saying always, but actually I looked it up so that it was more granular. I found the more granular polls throughout the entire year. And in 1968, Lyndon Johnson, had not Lyndon Johnson, Nixon had fallen into the 30s, but Hubert Humphrey was in the 20s. And so my point here, Professor Lickman, is that my key is, if you're in the 30s, you're toast. But if I was looking at that 1968 election, I would have said, yeah, my key is that if you're in the 30s and you're an incumbent, you're definitely going to lose, except his opponent is in the 20s. So it makes a difference when you look at the context in the situation. And you don't seem to be open to looking at the context.

So let me ask you some extremes to see if it jars your 13 keys loose. So what if your brother- I doubt it. Okay, I got you. And you're saying raw number, right? Raw number, whoever has more keys out of the 13 wins, right? Keys, yes. Yes, that's right.

Okay. So if let's say that Biden has seven or eight or nine of the keys and on his side, right? Or any candidate, forget Biden. But every day he comes out and does a press conference and punches himself in the face. And people are like, whoa, what the hell's going on? The president's lost his mind. Do the key still say that he's going to win?

Well, this is something I've never heard before. The punch in the face theory of how to predict presidential elections. The truth is, as I said, your predictions haven't worked. No, no, Professor Lickman, it's a question to you. Don't worry about my, you can say my predictions suck. I don't mind. So just, I'm giving you an extreme example, or the candidate comes out and every day punches a new baby in the face. Are you still going, nope, I'm sticking with the keys, nine out of 13 keys, the keys will determine.

Of course, I'm sticking with the keys because they've been right for 40 years. You can't predict elections from this kind of off the top of your head speculation, which is why you've been wrong so many times. It doesn't work. Okay, so let's, I mean, I can't believe you said if a candidate punches a baby every day. in the face, he's still going to win if he's got the keys. Okay, I'm not going to respond to such an absurd. Okay, okay, let's make it a little less absurd. Everybody thinks that not everybody, to be clear, 72% of Americans think that he's not mentally healthy enough to be, you know, to run and to be president. So, and you said that was incorrect. It is correct. We put up the poll

if you like. And in that scenario, he's not that far away from Americans viewing him as Diane Feinstein. And even today, right before you came out, breaking news, he's at the NATO summit and called Zelensky Putin. So what if he was Feinstein? And they're just wheeling him around in like the late Feinstein days. And remember, they were pretending she was fine and then she could still be senator. So if Biden is in that shape, would you still say, nope, I got my keys. Keys are going to determine it. I'm not going to respond to these absurdities. But I will respond to your real data. The only daddy you presented. And that is that 72% thought he was not healthy or had the mental acuity. It was too old to run. That does not mean that they will not

vote for him. And that's the bottom line. And as we saw the recent polls, despite all your attacks on him and all the Democrats attacks on him and all the journalists attacks on him, have not dented his prospects to win, according to your criteria, which are the polls. And I certainly haven't changed my criteria with the keys to the wiles. And by the way, Donald Trump has committed way worse, worse gaffes than Joe Biden. He confused Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi. How could you possibly do that? He didn't know the name of his own doctor who's been his physician for so many years. He has gone off on the most- But Professor Lickfinish. We- Last sentence. So we finish my sentence. And he's gone off on the most incoherent of rants, including, you know, sharks and

electric boats. So you've got to, you know, you say your system is based on looking at campaigns and candidates, but you only focus on Biden. You don't focus on Trump, who beyond that has said he's going to be a dictator on day one. And every dictator in the history of the world, who's been a dictator on day one, has been a dictator forever. So look at Trump. Don't just focus on Biden. But Professor Lickman, we focus on Trump till the cows come home. I did 99 segments on loser Donald. I think Donald Trump is in the single digits. I think he's a borderline lunatic. But the Republican voters have super clearly said we love that lunatic and you cannot move his base. And currently that lunatic is beating your candidate. Oops. Okay, so last couple

of things here, Professor Lickman. Look, I'm not trying. Biden's not my candidate. Well, it certainly It sounds like. Remember, I predicted Trump, you didn't in 2016. Okay, brother, okay. Reagan in 1980. Okay, you're the best, you're the best. Okay, so listen, brother. Thank you.

But I'm trying to see if you have an open mind and if you're being honest with yourself, let alone the audience, because I think you're leading him in a very wrong direction right now. So when you say, hey, the last couple of polls came out, they're not so bad, you understand that it's the aggregate of the polls, because I can show you a poll where Biden is losing by 12 in Nevada. So cherry picking polls is wrong. You know that, right? You're wrong there, of course. Polls are snapshots, and they change overnight.

So you can't rely on polls taken a week. So the very last poll is the only one that should count, you think? The most relevant polls, if polls are relevant at all, because they change so rapidly, are the most recent polls. And they're not close. Trump underwater 25 points. You think it's not close, Alan Lickman. you sound like you're on a different planet.

Do you think it's not close that Biden's going to blow out Trump? You know he might resign tomorrow. Are you aware of anything that's going on? The NATO presser is going to be a disaster. He already called Zelensky Putin. He's already got eight defections at the beginning of the show. And one came in during the middle saying he should resign the presidency. And you think that the aggregate polls don't count.

That's amazing. And then you mentioned the polls of the other candidates doing worse. You understand that the other candidates don't have as much name recognition now, but on election day would have massive and overwhelming name recognition and that the polls are skewed by the fact that that they don't have much name recognition. Now, you acknowledge that, right? A lot of these candidates have enormous name recognition. Al Gore was one of them, Hillary Clinton. Westmore, Andy Beshear, people don't know these. But you see, that's what I'm saying for Russell Lickman. It doesn't seem like you're being objective. You know that West Moore doesn't have enough

name recognition. That's why he does poorly in the poll. Don't you know that? He's not in that poll. Of course not. I agree with that. But certainly Hillary Clinton, Al Gore. Nobody wants Hillary Clinton to run. Nobody's arguing for Hillary Clinton. On the other side, they have not been subjected to all of these attacks that have been relentlessly launched for a month against Joe Biden. Despite all those attacks, he's now inched ahead in the key swing states. He's even with Trump in the national polls.

Just ridiculous. When it comes to approval. Ludicrous totally ludicrous he's at 37% in a massive collection of polls and so we found one exception to the rule you know you got you said I did 10 elections right I counted there's 18 elections since 1948 and there's only one exception to my key my one key but my one key of he's an incumbent in the 30s loses I am willing to be objective and go unless his opponent is in the 20s right But you seem immovable from your keys and just a raw collection of keys. And then when you say things like, hey, if you lose the incumbency key or you lose the no contest key, that it's going to swing the election, brother, that's correlation. That's not a causation. You're making it sound like it's causation.

Do you understand that critique? Of course, I understand it. And it's not correct. I am not claiming that the keys are causative. I am claiming, and it's not just me, it's eminent political scientists, all the professional forecasters agree, and I laid out all the credentials for it. The keys are predictive, not causal, and they have a 40-year track record of prediction. And indeed, you know, Harry Truman did win when he was at 36 percent, and he didn't win marginally. He won by five points, and he brought

back a Democratic Congress that the Democrats had lost in 1946. And when other candidates have been in the 30s, there's nothing to do with what the opposition was, the keys to the White House has not conflicted, has predicted their defeat. All right, last thing, first of all, just real quick, clarifying this case. In 1948, the polling was so bad that they changed the methodology of polling after that presidential contest, because it was 1948, okay? But last thing is this, Fras Lickman, I say he has a near zero chance of winning and that he's going to drop out imminently because there's, and even his own advisors say that he has a near 0% chance of winning. But you're saying, not only is he going to stay in the race, but if things continue as they are, that he's going to win.

So I did not say that. You're putting words in my mouth. Okay, so all right, so you want to do a fake prediction, which is Biden going to win or not? Because you're telling you're going all over TV and selling copium to blue maga. And they're like, oh, I heard from legendary Professor Lickman that he should stay in the race and he's going to win. So is he going to win or isn't he? Let's get you on the record. I never said he was going to win. What I said was I will make a final prediction after the Democratic Convention in August.

That's pretty convenient. If you check off whether it's Biden or if Biden resigns the presidency, it's Kamala Harris, a plan B. If you check off the incumbency key and the contest key, a lot would have to go wrong for the Democratic. All right. So we're finish. Yeah. That's a 40 year record and polls, four months, three months, two months, even weeks before the election are not predicted. The worst debate in history was not Joe Biden. It was Barack Obama in his first debating in Romney when only 20% thought he won. 33%. So, okay, I got it. I got it. You're gonna. There was a 12 point swing. Barack Obama and Joe Biden are not the same. You can't. You don't have a. Let me finish. Don't talk over me. Romney went from minus 8 to plus 4 and all the same off the top of their head.

No scientific basis pundits were pronouncing Barack Obama dead. And that was appalled just a few weeks before the election. I said that debate was irrelevant because Barack Obama was strong. And the context of Barack Obama was an incredibly strong candidate. The context of Biden is that he can't remember any world. He thinks he was the first black woman to serve with the first black president. He says he's the goodest president there is. He calls Zelensky put, all right, bottom line, you're squirming out and saying, okay, well, you know what,

let me retract that. Maybe you pick it after the convention. No, no, to be fair to you, no, to be fair to you, maybe you pick it after the convention is, no problem, okay? But I'm trying to get you on the record here because you want to have it both ways. So if I'm right, Joe Biden's going to drop out before the convention, because it's that disastrous. And if you're right, there's no way he would, hold on, hold on, let me finish the sentence. So if you're right, there's no way he would drop out because he's about to win.

So if he drops out before the convention, will you say Jenk was right, I was wrong? No. First of all, you predicted he dropped out a week ago. And my analysis has nothing to do with whether he will drop out or not. That's up to him. And he could be pressured by Democrats who have no notion of who's electable. You know, for years, Democrats have said, we've nominated wonderful, electable, experience-proven candidates, like Walter Mondale in 84, former vice president, Mike Dukakis, the great governor of Massachusetts in 88,

the great John Kerry, senator in 84, the former First Lady, U.S. Senator, Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, in 2016. And what do they all have in common? They've all lost. So, yes, the Democrats foolishly, could push Biden out. But I told you, I have a plan B. And that would be to preserve the two keys for the good of the country.

If he's pushed out, he could resign. Yeah. Kamala would become president, tick off the incumbency key, and tick off the contest key. So I'm not, you know, shilling for Biden. And I'm not biased. I predicted as many Republican as Democratic victories, including Donald Trump in 2016, which did not make me very. popular in 90% plus Democratic Washington DC where I teach at American University.

Yeah, so you forgot Kamala Harris's word salad key. But I hear you brother, you're clear, I'm clear, he's gonna drop out before the convention because as his advisor said, he has a near 0% chance of winning exactly what I've been saying all along. So we'll see who's right about that. All right, Professor Alan Lickman, thank you for being a good sport. You also said he's 0% chance of beating Trump in 220's. I did not say that, that you totally made that up. I said that I was worried about him in the primaries, and I was right to be worried he nearly lost the whole thing. Any other Democrat would have been better. And in the general election, I was wrong because I thought Biden would

blow out Donald Trump. I actually overestimated Biden. But I'm honest about my analysis, and I give people the entire context so they can see it for themselves. You seem to be dug in on your position. But we've already aired that out. I appreciate you coming on. And I appreciate that you are adamant about your case. Thank you, Professor Lickman. Take care. All right, back on TYT, Jank Anna, Alice Jack 10 and Tower Dragon. Tower Dragon, thank you for signing up at the premium level brother. Really makes a big difference, we appreciate it.

You could also upgrade through that join button below. Last ones here, all monthly memberships on t-y-t.com slash team, WMD-O-9, MKP-P-Filos, 89, Mevaloria, and Jimmy Q. You guys are the best, guys. You keep us in business, and you allow us to tell the truth, just like we've been doing all year long, and for actually all 22 years long, thanks to you guys. Anna. Well, I wanted to briefly just discuss what's currently transpiring with Democratic leadership, particularly on the Senate side.

And so let's discuss what Chuck Schumer is saying both privately and publicly. Are you confident that President Biden has what it takes to win in November and serve the next four years? As I've said before, I'm with Joe. Senator Murray, who just left, made a statement last night saying that she believes that Biden needs to do more to demonstrate that he's strong enough to defeat Donald Trump, articulate a vision. and they must seriously consider the best way to preserve his legacy. Do you agree with her sentiment? As I've said before, I'm with Joe. As you can all see from that press conference, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer publicly

defends President Joe Biden, doesn't call for him to step down from the presidential race, despite the odds of him winning the election. The odds are slim, to say the least. But behind the scenes, it appears that Chuck Schumer, like many other Democrats, Democrats are voicing concern. And in fact, Axios reports that Schumer has even gone so far as to say that he's totally fine with dropping Biden. Now he didn't say that to Democratic voters, he didn't say that publicly, he did say it

to a very specific group of people, and I think that's relevant to this story. So rather than consult with these voters, over the last 12 days, Schumer has been listening to donors' ideas and suggestions about the best way. forward for the party, according to three people familiar with the matter. Because this country isn't actually run by the American people, the politicians aren't decided on by the American people, it's the donors who decide, right? Yeah, look, that's another thing that this story is revealing that's so important about politics overall.

Like APAC revealed how much the donors control the politicians, they made it so absurd that you couldn't not see it, right? So in this case, there's a couple of things that are being revealed that you can't not see. One is what people's, what politicians say publicly and what they say privately. Now remember, they made it seem like only Republicans do that, that in private, they hate Trump, but publicly they kiss his ass. Now that's true, they definitely do that. But we told you, yeah, except the Democrats do it too.

And they said, no way. The Democrats are angels and honest, and they're not like demeaning Republicans. And here we are, they're all saying behind the scenes, of course Biden's got to go. This is crazy. We're going to lose all the swing states. We're going to lose all the swing districts in the House. We're going to lose the purple states in the Senate. And then they get in front of a camera, I'm riding with Biden.

I'm with Joe. And guys, I get some of the politics of it. I don't want to seem like a black and white issue. If they all came out and said Joe Biden is done and Joe Biden being the mad king decided, I know I'm going to stay in the race, then they've guaranteed a loss. But the thing is, they all know and they're freaking out internally because it's already a guaranteed loss, it's already one, right? So this caution is nonsense. But the second thing that this story is revealed,

because they're saying it in almost every article, yep, is that the donors are in charge. Exactly. In every article, they're like, well, they consulted with the donors and Jeffrey Katzenberg said this and George Clooney said that, and then the spanker said this and that venture capital guy said that and the LinkedIn guy said this and so they're all just and and what happened with Schumer and Pelosi and why you saw something extraordinary, something I've never seen in my life where one pillar of the establishment Nancy Pelosi seems to come out against another pillar of the establishment Joe Biden. I've never seen that. So for those of you who either

didn't see that moment on cable television or missed our reporting on it, we actually have that video it's the last clip where Nancy Pelosi was she didn't flat out call for Joe Biden to step down but the way that she framed this made it clear after Biden had made clear that he did not want to drop out of the race that she thinks this ain't over yet maybe you should really consider so let's let's watch does he have your support to be the head of the Democrats again as long as the president had the president it's up to the president to aside if he is going to run. We're all encouraging him to make that decision because time is running short. The I think overwhelming support of the caucus, it's not for me to say. I'm not the head

of the caucus anymore. But he's beloved. He is respected. And people want him to make that decision. He has said he has made the decision. He has said firmly this week, he is going to run. Do you want him to run? I want him to do whatever he decides to do. And that's that's the way it is. Whatever he decides we go with and I've said everyone let's let's just hold off whatever you're thinking either tell somebody privately, but you don't have to put that out on the table until we see how we go this week. So look Pelosi as I said before is kind of trying to have her cake and eat it to because you might have missed it, but she says something along the lines of, you know,

people want him to make that decision, not me, not me. Yeah. But first of all, Biden began this week with that letter telling the Democratic caucus, shut up, I'm going to keep running, I'm not going to drop out of the race. And he thought that was going to be the end of it. So Pelosi going on MSNBC to say, it's Biden's decision to make, as if that decision hasn't been made yet, is a way of pressuring him to reconsider his decision. Yeah, she's certainly savvy enough to know that when he says, I definitely made my decision,

I'm definitely staying in the race. And you come out two days later and go, I wonder if he's staying in the race, he should make that decision. What you're saying is we don't like your decision. We want you to reconsider. And if you didn't intend that, then she should retire too. She's 84. She later claimed that that's not what she intended.

Okay, then retire. You should all retire. I agree. I totally agree. But no, guys, she didn't go on TV by accident. She went on TV to make that point. Right. So now, look, as I told you in every article, they say Schumer and Pelosi are getting

tons of calls from donors, and the donors are worried. And so when the donors are worried and they're saying, hey, we're going to turn off the tap, the reason Pelosi and Schumer are freaking out both behind the scenes and a little bit in front is because they're like, wait, our source of power is the donor money. What if we lose the donor money for the House and the Senate? Then we're toast. The donors are saying that Biden's got to go. In fact, look, you can see this in almost any article, but I'll just give you a representative quote from Axios.

They say Schumer's conversations are part of a roiling debate in the Democratic Party with prominent donors now calling on Biden to drop out of the race. Like that's when they're talking about Schumer, they're saying more than even him talking to the senators or talking to anyone else or looking at polls. The donors have already ordered this to be done. That's why Schumer is deeply concerned. There's one more. I have to, hold on. I just need you all to really understand that the polls have been bad in regard to Joe Biden. Even prior to the debate, we had been covering the polls, specifically the swing state polls that have been abysmal for Biden.

And no one cared. Democratic leadership didn't care. No one's pants were on fire, no one was freaking out. Schumer wasn't freaking out behind the scenes, but publicly saying something different. Everyone was just kind of going along with it, coasting, let's just hope for the best. But now after that debate, and look, the reason why I bring up the polls is because the polls have to do with the voters. The voters should be the most important people, and it should be the most important analytical, you know, information to allow the Democrats to make the correct decisions. They don't even care about what the voters have to say, Jank. They haven't cared at all. They've ignored the polls completely. But, oh, the donors are suddenly concerned. That's what

they care about. So I want to build on what Anna is saying, because it's really important. So guys, the American people already knew that Joe Biden was in terrible shape. Already the numbers were in the 60s and 70s were worried about his mental condition. That's why I kept saying it over and over again. So they're like, well, it didn't deteriorate that much. Yeah, because seven out of ten Americans already thought that he was not mentally healthy enough to win. And then they're like, well, his favorability didn't go down that much. Yeah, because it was already a 37%, which is an absolute disaster.

Exactly. They're like, well, he's losing all the swing states, but he was losing them all before. How is that if in favor of Joe Biden? So to summarize all that, what happened was the American people already knew what was going to happen in that debate. The only people who didn't know were the elites, because they were in their own bubble. So now what's changed after the debate is that the donors and some of the Congress people are like, oh, we love Joe Biden and we were telling you all along that he's great and

we had this, they had drank their own Kool-Aid. So when they saw that the emperor had no clothes, they're like, oh my God, I didn't know eating that pants out. Why didn't anybody tell me? Well, not only have we been telling you, but the American people were telling you, seven out of ten of them thought he wasn't mentally there. You didn't want to listen, but you think Democratic leadership didn't know about Biden's condition? You think that- Oh, they definitely-Democratic leadership knew, and they didn't care about what the voters thought,

as long as the donors were still happy. Now that the don't, you get what I'm saying? Like, they were perfectly fine going along with this, knowing that there's a good chance that Biden, it's going to lose to Trump. But it's okay as long as we're still able to fundraise. As long as the donors are still happy. That's the most important thing. That is so true. So I mean, again, listen to what Anna just said and I'm going to give you the final quote on it. They, they Schumer, Pelosi, and all those guys thought, well, I see the unfavorability number and I know it's near impossible where I've been coming in the 30s to win. I see the polling number. He's losing every swing state. It's over, right? But it's okay because the donors are still giving us the money and the

donors want Biden in the race, because he's a good return on investment. The minute the donors turned, the politicians are turning. So the second sentence I was going to read for me, the Axios piece was lawmakers and donors are waiting for more polling data, most of which has been negative for Biden before making a potential move against the president. Look at how they acknowledge that without saying, isn't this outrageous or anything? They just think it's perfectly normal and every mainstream media article is saying the donors are waiting. They're going to see more polling data.

Then the donors will decide. Then they'll order Schumer Pelosi and the other Democrats to either kick Biden out or not because the donors are in charge. Well, thank you for admitting it. That's also what we've been saying all along. We got to take a break. When we come back, we've got more news, including some breaking news about some of the maneuvering Nancy Pelosi is doing behind the scenes to try to get Biden to reconsider and drop out. of the race. By the way, Biden should be holding a press conference right now. It was actually supposed to begin 40 minutes ago and it hasn't started yet. So I don't know what's going on

with that. But we're keeping an eye on it. The minute we have it, we're gonna give it to you. Exactly. So let's take a break for now. We'll be right back.