The Zach Lowe Show - Concern for the Thunder? Plus, Eastern Conference Power Rankings!

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

Zach is joined by Fred Katz to discuss whether the Thunder have reason for concern after another loss. Then, they update their Eastern Conference power rankings and try to make sense of the cluster of teams at the top. (0:00) Welcome to The Zach Lowe Show! (1:38) Fred Katz joins the show! (4:39) Any reason to be concerned with the Thunder? (13:51) Eastern Conference power rankings (15:50) No. 15 (20:23) No. 14 (25:33) No. 13 (29:13) No. 12 (32:42) No. 11 (35:37) No. 10 (40:37) No. 9 (44:17) No. 8 (45:07) No. 7 (51:09) No. 6 (1:03:33) No. 5 (1:12:05) No. 4 (1:18:16) No. 3 (1:28:55) No. 2 (1:39:14) No. 1 Host: Zach Lowe Guest: Fred Katz Producers: Mike Wargon, Jonathan Frias, and Billy Gil Social: Keith Fujimoto The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Coming up after this on the Zach Lowe show, it's Monday, we got a lot to talk about in the NBA. Oh my God, the Eastern Conference. Where do we even begin? Philly's on fire. They just boat race to Knicks. The Knicks have lost three in a row. The Cavs?

Are they back? they not back? Are they kind of back? The magic, right when you start to get optimistic, Jalen Suggs gets hurt again, the Boston freaking Celtics, gap year Celtics, boy, was I wrong about them, have the number one point differential in the Eastern Conference without Jason Tatum. Should they be number one on our Eastern Conference power rankings? Fred Cassidy Athletic is here. We're going to go 15 to 1 Eastern Conference Power Rankings based on who can actually make the NBA final. So spoiler, like Washington, Indiana, did not do very well. I legitimately, you could order the top five or six in almost any way you wanted.

Maybe not almost anyway, but it was it was dicey up there. Who should make a trade? Who's going to make a trade? We talk about all of that stuff. Plus a little bit at the beginning about the thunder. Thunder loss to the suns. There's six and five in their last 11 games. Three of those losses are to the spurs, but other little losses are popping up here and there.

What's going on in the West? can any who's going to get the two seed when b's hurt shingoon turned his ankle yokech is heard the nuggets of lost two road it's kind of a chaotic time of the NBA but particularly the east fred cats is here to discuss all that with us hope you enjoy it the zach low show it's monday the thunder lost the east is a mess fred cat's my buddy is here fred how you doing i'm doing great i'm doing great i don't have my own podcast apparel like you do and that fantastic hoodie but i'm starting to think maybe i should literally one of a kind, Fred. The demand for this merchandise

was so great that my buddy Mark made one of them and gave it to me for free. So he made $0.0. Shout out Mark on his exact commercial merchandise. That's a good friend. Or maybe it's a friend who's mocking you

in your case. I don't know. My friends gave me a podcast, a sweatshirt with my podcast on it. I would probably take, I would probably take offense to it. I'd be like, you're mocking my podcast. It's very comfortable

and he's a big fan. Okay. We are going to do something we did at the very beginning of the season, which is power rank the Eastern Conference. And boy, oh, boy, is a complete chaos all over the place. The Celtics now have the best point differential in the East by a lot. The Knicks, my preseason pick to make the finals, have lost three in a row. Caviots, injuries back to backs on all three, but they look, they look, I mean, they've never been invulnerable. This is the someone has to win conference. So we're going to. to power rank it from 15 all the way up to one. The Sixers. Okay. Okay, Philly. The heat have won like five of six or something. They look great. It's complete chaos. I texted like 20 coaches in front office people. Give me your top five in the East just randomly off the top of your head. Most people forfeited the entire assignment. They're like, I don't even want to do it. It's too crazy. Someone has to win. But oh my gosh, in the Western Conference, Fred Katz, speaking of the east being open,

I'm not saying the West is open. I'm just saying. Phoenix beat the Thunder last night. Thunder are six and five in their last 11 games. Three of those losses are to the spurs, but the vulnerability is spreading. Minnesota beat them. Phoenix beat them.

Booker makes a big three last seconds of the game. In that 11 game stretch, if you want to go through the numbers, it's the offense that has really been the issue for the thunder. they are 20th in points per possession over those games. They have fallen to dead last in offensive rebounding. Their free throw rate is down. And their half-court offense, which is number two for the season,

according to cleaning glass, is 14th in that stretch. Now, have they had injuries? Yes, Hartnstein is hurt right now, and he is their offensive rebounding for better or worse. A.J. Mitchell missed two of the Spurs games, and they just constantly have guys in and out of the lineup. But, you know, they've generally been fairly healthy. And even their wins, they blew out the Blazers who are okay, beat the zombie warriors who sat everybody on the national TV game like it was Greg Popovich in 2012.

And the Sixers, they blew them out without MB, but it was like a little rickety for a bit in that game. What's happening here, Fred Katz? Well, number one, I think the shooting has just fallen off to an incredible degree. And that's something that maybe we could have seen coming. at the beginning of the year, even when they were winning a ton, they were not shooting great from three for like the first month or so. And then leading into that loss to the Spurs in the in-season tournament when they were 24 and 1 or whatever they were.

For the previous month, they had been shooting 43% from 3. Just an outrageous number. I mean, everyone was hitting ridiculous numbers. And I think what we're seeing right now is just a little bit of three-point regression over this 11-game stretch where there's 6 and 5, I want to say they're around 34% from deep. 33.4% from deep. So even worse.

And that just like tends to come down. Like you look at over this stretch, like a guy like Aaron Wiggins, he's not hitting his threes. Caruso isn't hitting his threes. Kaysom Wallace is somebody we haven't really, no one's focused on the fact that Kaysam Wallace Wallace is not having necessarily,

it's not that he's having a bad year. He's an unbelievable defender and fits into everything they do so well. But he's not necessarily having like a, a leap sort of year that maybe you could have expected to see from a young player of his caliber. I think he's been a little down and his shot has not been nearly as good this year. And it's just kind of something I've been monitoring all year. Lou Dort is a guy who's kind of not, I don't think, played at the level that he was at the last couple of years so far this year.

And look, this is why it's really, really hard to go 73 and 9. This is why even a team that's just insanely good is going to have some stretches where it goes six and five. I think if I'm the thunder, I probably feel pretty happy. This is happening now. You know, the trade deadline is a month from today. And they've got time to figure out, okay, well, maybe we do need another offensive rebounder here or somebody who can, who can maybe, or maybe even a strategic shift where they crash a little bit more or a little bit differently or a little bit more aggressively because they're not a very aggressive crashing team and compared to other, you know, top teams around the league. Maybe, maybe they, they could use another

you know, athletic guard who could help them against San Antonio, who obviously is a tough matchup for them because they're 3 and O against the Thunder this year. I think they'll figure it out. I think every great team even has a stretch where they go six and five. It's just so jarring because they started 24 and 1. And again, half their losses are to one team. They're the only team that doesn't turn the ball over against the Thunder. The Spurs are. They're still forcing heaps of turnovers against everybody else. And I think the Spurs sort of, the the roster log jam that everyone was not me, but concerned about the, the overload of guards, ball handlers has actually been very helpful against the Thunder.

Like the more like actual proven point guard type players you have on the floor level ball handlers, the better. Yeah, look, the Thunder are 30 and 6. They're going to have home court. There's still four games ahead of the Spurs. Wembe's injured. Devin Fisle is injured. No one looks like they're going to threaten them for the number one seat in the Western

Conference. the Nuggets could have. The Nuggets are now missing Yokic. They've lost their last two games without him in dispiriting fashion. So I shouldn't say that. The Cleveland game was a rollicking one for that. That was a good showing. And then Brooklyn, they got kind of rolled yesterday.

They are 21 and 1, the Thunder are against sub 500 teams and a relatively mortal nine and five against 500 and over teams, having played the easiest schedule in the league so far. The nine and five number I'm just going to keep looking at because I, like, All of these teams, like the Nuggets absolutely think they can win the championship. The Rockets are bullies. They're not afraid. The Lakers, although they should be afraid of the Thunder, never really have been. I don't really think they're in this conversation, frankly.

The Wolves have always played the Thunder tough. And the Spurs obviously have done what they've done. It ain't going to be a cakewalk out of the West for them. Also should be noted, we're now kind of in the dog days of the season. Like the cup is over. We're halfway through the season. People can kind of see All-Star coming. And this is a time when somewhat strange stuff can happen.

I want to also give, by the way, Denver, Denver after that Phoenix win last night, it is a big win for Phoenix because their schedule is about to get a lot harder. And notching a win against Oklahoma City is a huge sort of buffer against, if any, slumps come. Denver now only two games up on Phoenix for the seventh spot, absolutely at risk of being in the play-in range when Yolkich comes back. I just want to give Phoenix a shout out. I just, I took the under on them. I think it was 34 and a half.

They're 21 and 14. Everyone has lauded them for being the toughest, hardest playing team in the league. They deserve all the flowers for that. They are just tough as all hell. I just can't believe that they've survived offensively, given the, what my concern preseason was, who's handling the ball when Devin Booker is off the floor? who's helping him handle the ball when he is on the floor.

You look at some of their backup lineups when Booker's off the floor. It's like, I can't believe that they're surviving, but Gillespie has been tremendous. Jordan Goodwin, who is an offensive rebounding machine, hit eight threes last night. He's been great. Oslo I Godoro as their backup five has really stabilized their bench and played a lot in closed games for them a lot of times. Booker's Booker, they've just dug out enough points for their defense and their toughness to win. And they're going to, they're in the hunt for a top six seat. I think the schedule will turn on them a little bit and then will pass them.

But the teams above them better play well, Fred Katz, because they're pretty damn good. I was very wrong about the Sons. I can't believe how good they are. Yeah. They're really good on the margins. Like, they're really good on the offensive boards. You know, I mentioned like crashing strategies before. They have one of the most interesting crashing strategies in the league in terms of just how often they send guys to the glass.

And they have a lot of guys who are really good at it. They forced turnovers. Like, they're good on the margins in that sense. Also, can I just like, Dylan Brooks has been awesome. Fringe All-Star. Not going to make the All-Star team. Fringe All-Star. I'll tell you what.

Last year, Kevin Durant on shots, passes, turnovers, fouls out of his isolations. The Phoenix Suns averaged like 120-something points per 100 possessions, which... Very good. Seems good. It's unbelievable. not only is an unbelievable. Second Spectrum's been tracking that stat since 2013. That was the highest number for like a high volume season. I think that's 500 plus isolations in a season.

That was the highest number for a high volume season since Second Spectrum started tracking it in 2013. So their offense turned into when Durant was there. And they were pretty okay when Durant was there last season. It was when he wasn't there that they were terrible. Their offense turned into give the ball to Kevin Durant and just make something happen. And with Durant gone, it's like, especially in Crunch, time. That's what they did. And with the grant gone, you're thinking, okay, what the heck is going to happen, especially the end of shot clocks? You know, Dylan Brooks has been like the sixth most

efficient isolation player in the NBA this year. Made a big step back three last night against the Thunder two. I think put the sun's up three. I can't remember what the score was, but it was a huge shot. He's shooting the hell out of it from mid-range too. Like, he's, he's been such a good scorer this year. And I think has also been so important for their just like rugged, defensive mentality, getting them out into transition, really good point of attack, which helps them force a lot of those turnovers. Booker's been really good all year.

I mean, I think Booker's an all-star this year. They've been really good. Also, yeah, Colin Glesby. How about it? One of the most improved players in the NBA. It's just going to be really interesting to look at the West standings in three weeks because the Warriors, you know, they kicked that game against the Thunder.

And then they did their job, which is when the next game on the back-to-back against Utah, despite Draymond Green getting ejected again. They're, I think, five and two in their last seven, something like that, with one of the games being basically a tanked game, scheduled tank. They haven't given up hopes. I was with their people in Toronto last week. They haven't given up hopes of cracking the top six.

So they never give up hope. And they have a history of late season runs. I mentioned Spurs injuries. We'll see how long Wembe's out and Vissell is out. Shingoon sprained his ankle the other day for Houston. They really can't afford to lose him for much, but they're rock solid. Minnesota, after Anthony Edwards walked off the court in a blowout loss to the Hawks, the second horrible loss, the wolves suffered after beating OKC.

They also got rolled by Brooklyn. Minnesota's won a couple games in a row, kind of seemed to have restored order. The aunt walking off the court thing, pissed at Chris Finn for pulling the starters. That's water under the bridge. And the Lakers, you know, look, they beat the Grizzlies two times their home. I'm not giving them any trophies for that, but they are, you know, every win counts when you don't have Austin Reeds. their defense is what it is. And the Warriors, again, are 19 and 17,

three games behind Phoenix, four games behind Minnesota in six. It's just going to be, I can't wait to see how those standing shakeout, but the thunder at the top seems like the only search. This episode is brought to you by Panda Express. Look, it can be hard showing how much you love someone. But if you can't say how you feel,

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Where there is no certainty, where multiple people, when I asked them about the Eastern Conference or to rank the top five in the East, just send shrug emojis or say to me in person if I'm at a game, somebody's got to win. That should be the, The East, the East in 2026. Somebody's got to win.

Somebody's making the finals. This is why the Bucks, 16 and 20, can't do anything without Janus. Four and one since Janus came back, the least convincing four and one stretch you could possibly imagine. We'll get to them somewhere in our mutual power rankings. This is why they're like, hey, Zach Levine, Michael Porter Jr., Jeremy Grant, who can we get without giving up the only draft pick we can trade. By the way, Phoenix still can't,

doesn't control any of its picks still 20, so where they go long term with Moloach, not doing much as a rookie, not unexpected, we'll see. But this is why the bucks are like, can we get one of these guys without even including a pick? We want somebody. We can't give up because we are,

although we are 11th, we're one game out of the play-in. Everyone in the play-in is pretty flawed. No one at the top scares us. It's crazy. Someone's got to win. The Boston Celtics having talk about wrong.

Yeah, the clip what I said to Michael Pina, who agreed with me, by the way, yeah, I'm throwing him under the bus too. When I said, and they did social media people at Spotify Ringer, of course they clip this. I said, what is the case for optimism in Boston? Look at this front court rotation of career backups and DMP people. I don't understand the case for optimism.

A couple of their coaches hit me after I said that and said, just wait, just wait. We saw the clip. Just wait. They have the number one point differential in the Easter, 22 and 12. Joe Missoula has to be the front runner for coach of the year. I can't believe it.

Okay, power ranking the east from 15 to 1. Fred Katz, we're going to be very quick on the bad teams. Who'd you have at 15? Indiana. Me too. Indiana, look, I can't even put you above the Wizards when you're on a 12 game losing streak. I think it's 12.

Is it 13 now? Whatever it is. I stop counting it like seven. It's very bad. And, you know, I've spent a lot of this season. We know that the Pacers are in the middle of a gap year, an actual gap year. We know that they are in the best one-year tank situation since the San Antonio Spurs drafted Tim Duncan and that they're looking at this Eastern Conference.

Like, cool, we're 15th now. We get a top whatever pick in this draft. We get Halliburton back. We solve our center issues. We stop on us next year. We just came within a whisker of winning a championship. I have watched them this year, Fred, and thought, should they really be this bad?

Like, they've been not, I mean, Toppins missed the whole season. Neesmith came back about a week ago. So they haven't been healthy, healthy. But they did reach like a critical mass of health. Like Matherin's been healthy, not been the last couple games. Nemhart's been healthy.

Seacom's healthy. McConnell came back. Like guys started coming back and they just kept on losing. It's like, should they really be this bad? And then, you know, look, they're young players just haven't like Jarris Walker, bad year, Ben Shepard, bad year. Mathurin has a negative assist to turnover issue. He's not having a great year. That stuff is not super encouraging.

But I do think this was sort of like, obviously this highlights how great Halliburton is, how important having a starting caliber center who can space the floor and Miles Turner was. And just sort of how it really was a you need all the pieces or 90% of the pieces and even like a lot, using Topin and Knee Smith, a bench big who's good, and a solid starter, who's a fifth starter. Even that is enough along with Halliburton to just sink you down to this level. But I don't know, man. I've enjoyed the Johnny Furphy appearances and starts in the last couple weeks. He's showing me something. And it's obviously just wait till next year.

I have one other thing on this team, but what do you want to say on the Pacers? They make me very sad. I said this, I think the last time I was on your podcast, they just make me very sad because I loved watching them so much last year. I think this is the effect of what happens when everyone has to step up one to two notches they're not ready for. And so you look at the guys in their team

and you're like, why is this so bad? Nemhard is a good player. And T.J. McConnell is a good player. And you go through their roster and you're like, knee-smith's a good player. But when they have to step up a notch or two, it just doesn't look as good. Like, Jay Huff was good for Memphis last year

in the role that he was in. And now if like Jay Huff is trutting out there, against in situations that he necessarily shouldn't be in, he shoots 29% from three as opposed to hitting his threes and looking a lot better defensively when you can play him in the spots that are best for him. So like I think a lot of this comes from guys being overextended. And I say this having not really been around them much this year, I was around them last year, they were a ridiculously competitive locker room.

So I might, you know, get called out for being wrong on this. But I think this is just human psychology. And it's true for every team, no matter how competitive your locker room is. At some point, and Siakum's been great this year too, but at some point, like, the bad teams know they're bad. And it just kind of seeps into everything. And you're just like, oh my goodness, this is dreadful. Just please can this season be over with. And that is just the psychology of having a team, not just in basketball, but in anything in life.

And I sense that with them. the only it's all about next year at this point and the only thing I'm keeping my eye on is if you're going all in again next year

you need a better center by fathoms than what you have on the roster currently and Isaiah Jackson is another guy who's injured and he's largely disappointed this year. There's a lot of big men who are available ranging from the super high salary guys

like Anthony Davis and DeMontos probably to lower guys like probably Daniel Gafford and blah, blah. I don't think they're going to be swimming in the big salary deep end. And obviously they've had this a bonus experience already. Even though it's more likely to happen in the summer, I think they're going to sniff around at these centers that are available now and under contract for next year to see if they can find somebody who fits

because they know they can't go into next year with this center rotation in Halliburton back. Okay, 14, I assume you had the whiz. I had the whiz. We're playing better lately, but there's still nine and ten. 25 and bottom four in offense and defense. But they're playing better lately. They've won, what is it? Four out of six?

Six out of 11. Six and five in their last 11 games. Bucks can't beat them. Six out of 11. No, Bucks lost to him twice. It is funny that every single time somebody loses to the Wizards, like they all just, after the game, they all like have like a recognition of what is wrong with us every single time.

Dude, it's not even losing. It's not even losing. Teams who have barely beaten the Wizards have had like team meat. and or explosive press conference sessions afterwards about like how this is a really discreet like we should be pissed off about it. It's like you won by five, man. Just go on to the next thing. There's 82 of these things.

Okay. Very encouraged by Alex Sar. Dude, you know, Alex Sar, he leads the league in blocks per game only because Wembe wouldn't qualify as of now. Opponents are shooting 50.9% at the rim against him. And he challenges the most shots at the rim per game because he is basically by himself and with some help on the wing from Balalculabali, who, by the way, not for nothing,

defends Janus as well as any wing who is smaller than Janus in the entire NBA. Now, Bilalculubali is averaging 10 points a game on 38% shooting and 25% from 3. That's discouraging, and that has to change for the Wizards going forward. I assume they're going to sell on all their veterans. CJ, I would sell on Kispert.

I would sell on Bagley, sell high while the going is good. I'm really First, they've won enough games where people started looking at their draft pick that they owe the Knicks That's top eight protect me. They're like, do they need to slow down here? They'll be fine.

They're not going to give up the draft pick. The last thing I will say on the whiz I just give me the next whatever games we have left in the season of Trey Johnson going bananas because holy fuck can this guy shoot. I mean, quick trigger. He's got wiggle to him.

He has a beautiful stroke. He's Uber. confident, shooting 41% from three on super high volume. He's going to be a player. They did well with that pick. Yeah, and you know what's interesting about him is at the beginning of the year, the shooting was impressive and it kind of caught your eye. And lately, maybe the last month or so,

he's been attacking closeouts off the dribble and then making good reads off of those closeouts out. So at the beginning of the year, it was kind of like, okay, I see the closeouts close. I'm just going to attack and I'm going to go. Lately, he's making these intuitive passes. he's kicking it to the corner. He's finding a cutter. He's making, like, he's not facilitating by any stretch of the imagination,

but he's making these connector plays. You can see the game is slowing down for him a little bit. And that, plus the shooting, I think he's in a good spot. Bub Garrington has been making shots for the last month or so. He's like 45% on threes. Yeah, but Bub's been making shots. And he, to me, is a guy who's like,

his value is going to be in his shot making. It's just going to be like, if he makes a lot of shots, he's going to be a good play. and if he doesn't, he might be hard to fit into your team. And with SAR, like to come back to SAR, with the rim protection, it's not just that he's a rim protector. It's that SAR is also a switchable center.

And there aren't very many guys. Normally you've got to kind of pick and choose. And he shoots threes. Normally you got to pick and choose between like, are we going to have a guy who's more of a rim protecting center? Or are we going to have a guy who we can switch with on the perimeter? And all of a sudden, Saar is looking like he's going to develop into a guy,

who you can switch with, who can protect the rim, who shoots threes, who has a vastly improved postgame and face-up game this year, who has more moves around the rim than I could have imagined him having a year ago at this time. And that's like just the schematic versatility that if and when the wizards ever get good down the line, which is a long way off, but if they ever do and SARS there, like the schematic versatility, he's going to allow them, not just not just the versatility of like he'll fit into whatever kind of players that you want him to have because he can kind of play in any system. But just like, all right, we're going to change in the middle of a game or we're going to change based on personnel. We got to switch against these guys.

We got to blitz against these guys. We got to play drop against these guys. SARS got to be more of a off ball help defender rover against these guys. Like he can do all that kind of stuff. And that's really rare to just be able to just that skill set. Forget about like how high the quality will end up being. to have that skill set and just be good at all those things is super, super rare. And that's really big for the Wizards.

It'll be interesting to see when they look back at this draft to compare Tray Johnson and Jeremiah Fierce, because the organizing point guard is still the ingredient that's not here. Fears has been good, but not so good that I have any regret about that. Obviously, Ace Bailey is the guy they tried to manipulate things to go and get, and it didn't fall to them. Joman, another point guard. I'm fine, Trey Johnson over him. And then you got to go all the way down

to Cedric Howard and Derek Queen, who weren't going to be taken in that range. So it's fine. 13, did you have the Brooklyn Nets? No. Oh. Would you have? The Charlotte Hornets.

Interchangeable at 12 and 13. Let's start with Brooklyn, since it's my podcast, and I had them at 13. Also 6 and 5 in their last 11 games. they have gotten everyone in their grandmother has noted that they had the number one defense in all of December. I think that still stands.

Congratulations to them. Look, they're frisky. Jalman is shooting 37% on nine threes for 36 minutes. I'd like him to shoot more twos and just be like sort of leverage is passing a little bit or unlock is passing a little bit more, but fine. MPJ is a real dude, man. He's not a good stats, bad team guy. And if they get value,

for him. I think they'll flip him somewhere and I think you can help somebody. Dayron Sharp's playing well. Rookies are, you know, Drake Powell's starting to show some stuff. Sure. We'll see. I don't know. I don't have a lot to say about Brooklyn. I want to just go to Charlotte's a way more fun. I have one Brooklyn thing, which I think is interesting, which I'm actually intrigued by them being so good defensively over the last month because it perfectly coincides with a change in their defensive identity. Because about early in the year, they're just given up tons of They still give up a lot of threes. But early in the year, they're giving up tons of threes, and they're giving up a lot of pull-up

threes. And so what do they do right around December 1st? I couldn't tell you if it was exactly on December 1st, but that's when everybody talks about is this marker. And they're 8 and 6 since December 1st, and they won last night against what's left of Denver. But Aaron Gordon was back in that game. Fewest threes. I've talked about it.

Fewest threes in most shots at the rim defensively in that stretch. Well, they started switching a ton. and that's taken away threes. They were switching so much over the last month. 45% of ball screens they're switching, which like for perspective, I looked into this, I checked on Second Spectrum,

the highest switch rate for a team in a single season since Second Spectrum began tracking this in 2013, 43%, ironically from the Brooklyn Nets in 2023. I was going to guess a Rockets team in the heart in the peak Hardin era, wouldn't have been my guess. That's what I thought. thought too. They're number two, three, and four.

Okay. There I go. Not a bad guess by me. That's what I would have thought to. But the nets are switching at a ridiculously high rate. And they've changed their, they were a pretty high switch defense at the beginning of the year, but not nearly as often as they're doing it now. And it's working well.

And I think it's kind of confusing teams. And I think it's also making teams play later out of the shot clock, which is a good thing for them. So I'm, look, I don't think they're the best defense in the league by any stretch of the imagination. But do I think, like, my, I have one Nets fan friend who is just constantly freaking out about how they're going to ruin the tank.

Do I think he should be worried about them ruining the tank? Like, maybe. Maybe he should be worried about getting the ninth pick. Well, yeah, they're in the Utah bucket of, are we winning too many games, though they don't have the same risk that Utah has in terms of a protected pick that they owe. It's really next year when the Rockets can swap

with them. That is the real problem because that puts a limit on, you know, what the value being bad is next year, obviously. They still have $15 million of space. I don't quite, you know, they have switchable guys. They have size. Claxton is a classic switching center. Sharp, less so, but he's been good for them on both ends of the floor, frankly. I don't really get how they're doing it. They're getting a little lucky with jump shooting, obviously, but still, kudos to the Nets. The Hornets, you know, they've had some quality wins lately. the beat the magic, the hawks, the calves, when the cabs had everybody but Mowbly for that game of their big, their big four,

I guess. They're a delight to watch. I will keep beating this stat into the ground until it becomes untrue. They are plus 34 total points, but in only 200 minutes. That's a real stat, 213 minutes, with Brandon Miller,

Lamello Ball, and Concaniple on the floor. That's something. I don't know what this team's roadmap to a competent defense is for the next two or three years. obviously that's the big picture step. Lamello is quietly up to 37% on threes after the worst shooting slump I could ever imagine him having.

I don't think there's going to be a trade for him. And I think Charlotte should be okay with that. I'm done talking about Lamello and the decision making. I've done it to death. I just like watching this team. The big question, I mean, like, Paul Brenner, he's been hurt. He's a fine defensive player.

Sion James is a tank. I don't, you know, that threesome is a really interesting offensive threesome. Miller ball, Caniple. I just don't know what the roadmap to a good defense is, but they're super fun to watch and Kinniple is awesome. And Brandon Miller, 20 a game, the shooting's got to come up, but he's going to be a very, very good player.

Caniple Lamello Chemistry is getting better too. They're running more like picking pops lately. They'll do those, they'll have those actions where they come up and set two screens and canipples one of the screeners and they are. They are a great stagger screen. team. 100%. And Lamello's created a lot of threes for Kniepple out of those plays.

He finds him in transition. They're, they're, I think, on a better page. And look, at some point, I don't know,

tell me how hot of a take this is, but like, I don't think they're going to be able to keep all those three guys together. And I don't say that because of any sort of like ego. Like, they're going to have to trade one of the three guys you mentioned because I don't think you can, because I don't think you can build anything.

near viable defense. I think Brandon Miller. You don't have to do it now. You don't have to do it now, but just it, you're not, you're not near contention. You want to see the evidence build up. You want to see who you want to keep. And like, Kniepals is awesome. And Lamello's obviously, you know, unbelievably talented.

And Brandon Miller's unbelievably talented. But like, I don't, can you, can you survive as a, even a good team? If you're just getting roasted defensively all the time. Like, I, well, I don't know if you can. But it's good to see the. chemistry between those guys is growing in the meantime. Like you want to foster that if you're them. The front court is not really helping them.

I mean, Miles Bridges is a minus at the four. Kalkbrenner is a rookie who can really do one thing on defense and play one kind of scheme and not really do anything else. And after that, it's a morass. Although, shout out to my guy, Tijon Salon, starting to play well. Look, I just think Miller should be an average to above average defensive player, particularly off the ball. He's not there yet. Knieple should be an average to above average defensive player. Maybe above average is strong, but he's fine.

He fights hard. He guards good guys. Lamello, I'm not talking about anymore. He's big and he rebounds and we'll see. I'm not giving up on that. Yeah, I'm certainly not selling low on Lamello. I understand the big picture thought. I'd like to see them with a little bit more reliable support at the four and the five,

the big guys being the most important positions defensively still. number 11 I maybe this is where the disagreements really start Fred Katz who you got so this is where it just like I just felt bad about literally every single team

up I feel terrible about where I rank them like I feel like I feel great about who I have at number 11 number 11 number 11 with a bullet really I have Atlanta you're wrong Fred you're wrong and as much as I'm eating crow

I'm eating hawk for my hawk's optimism. I'm not even eating crow. I'm eating hawk, which is probably against the law. I can't put them above the fucking Chicago Bulls. I'm sorry, the Bulls are 11th in my rankings. I don't care that Josh Giddies hurt. I don't care that Kobe White's hurt. Talk about depressing.

Talk about depressing. You know what's depressing? Nicole of Wutchevich is depressing. Like every single Bulls game listening to Stacey King, try as a big man, try to hide how appalled he is. that Nicole Lvutchevich has not taken a post-up shot or a two-pointer in like 14 consecutive minutes, let alone what's happening on defense.

He's old, man. He's getting old. It's just sad. Look, here's what makes the Bulls watchable. Number one, someone should be trying to steal I, O'Dosu, new from them. I don't know who it is. If I were Minnesota, I'd be trying to steal him. If I were any team, he needs a little dose of ball handling,

I'd be trying to trick the Bulls into trading me him, saying, oh, you don't want to pay his extension. He's, uh, and Buzellis. is starting to trend back up. After he had like hot start, kind of dipped into like, where is, where is he?

Like, why is he averaging 12 points and 0.5 assists a game for a team to sign any good? Now he's back up. He had seven assists the other day by far career high. His two-man game with Vuccivich

and like they're doing the double big thing with Collins and sticks. Jail and Smith is, he's gotten a little better at that. Obviously everyone saw he dunked Jail and Sugs into oblivion the other day. I just, look, what do you want me to say?

Kevin Hurt is fun to watch. You know, they, like, talk about a team that might have some draft regret from this past draft. We haven't even seen a Sengay who they took at 12, one spot behind Senator Coward and one spot in front of Derek Queen. And they, I think, all the intel suggests they had an opportunity to make the deal the Hawks made with the Pelicans or something similar and didn't do it. Like, yes, the Hawks deserve all the scorn. They deserve to be 11th. They are 10th on my ballot. so it's not as if I'm calling them up into the top six

or something stupid like that because they can't defend anybody with or without Tray Young in the last month. I just, at least there's like exciting. At least there's some mystery to them. At least there's some trade possibilities with them. At least there's not something beyond, hey, we're going to win 39 games again

and we're going to have cap space that will probably not use or misuse. Oh my God, the Bulls with Cap Space. We're terrified of them. That's it. So I have the Hawks and the, do you have the Bulls at, 10 at least? Yeah, I have the Bulls at 10.

Thank God. Let me, let me tell you my thought process. I originally had the Hawks at 10 and the Bulls at 11. And then I'm looking through it and I'm doing some prep. And I remember that two weeks ago, I just watched the Bulls drop 152 points on the Hawks. And then two days later, I watched the Bulls beat the Hawks again. And I'm like, I feel like it goes against the spirit of power rankings to throw the team with the worst record that just lost to the team with the better

record twice ahead of the team with the better record and that just beat them twice. So I was like, I kind of have to do it, even though if you ask me like, who am I taking in a playoff series? I probably pick Atlanta, even if they have Trey, without Trey, whatever else it is. We're taking nobody. First of all, they can't meet in a playoff series. I'm going to sleep early. All they can do is meet in the play in, aka the Bulls Invitational slash Hawks Invitational.

And if they meet in the play-in, let's make it three-on-three or something. Let's have, if they meet in the plan and this is the state of their franchises, under 500 in the 9-10 spot, let's just put like the wizards into the play-in and replay. Do you can't, if we're going to do, if we're going to consider things like you can't pick in the top four in the drafting consecutive years, which is stupid and the NBA shouldn't consider it. How about you can't be in the play-in again? You're out. You're disqualified from the plan.

Wizards, you get promoted. Charlotte, you get promoted. Anyway, on the Hawks, look, we all know Trey is, I was actually kind of relieved that the Hawks lost the game that Trey Young didn't play to Toronto because the Hawks can't win with Trey and can't lose without him was getting a little bit uncomfortable for everybody involved. I don't know that there's going to be a trade for him. I've struggled to find one. I think if there were a good one, they would do it. I've advocated that the hawks best path may be to just do nothing, particularly as the Pelicans, despite their best efforts to try and win,

are now losing every game again. They've lost seven games in a row and are dead last in the West. And obviously the Hawks control their pick. We shall see what happens. Here's a question, Hawks related for you. I want your just quick, off-the-cuff reaction. Nikiel Alexander Walker, career year. Should the wolves regret,

essentially choosing Nas Reid over Nikiel Alexander Walker. That's a good question. I'm going to say no because I don't think you can reasonably say that anybody should have seen this coming. Like I don't think the Hawks, I can tell you, the Hawks didn't sign Nikila Alexander Walker and be like, all right, this guy's going to blow up, average 1920 a game, still shooting the same percentages from three being off ball menace and the defense is going to stay at the same level.

Like, I don't, the Hawks weren't thinking that. The Hawks thought they were getting the wolves version of Nikila Alexander Walker. So, so I mean, in hindsight, maybe because, you know, Minnesota has Gobert and they have Randall already. And sometimes it's a little bit log jammy for them at the big and they need a point guard, obviously. But it's not like Nikiel Alexander Walker is coming out there and like initiating the offense all that much.

He's still mostly an off ball guard, Dyson Daniels. does more initiating for them. Like Luke Carnard will come in with the bench units and run some pick and rolls. Like, Nikiel's not bringing the ball up, running a ton of actions. Obviously, Jalen Johnson's doing stuff. And when Tray's there, he's doing stuff.

He's still kind of playing similarly. He's just doing it in a way more in-your-face way, and the shots are way up. And he has been fantastic. But I don't know. I don't really think the wolves should regret it. And I don't criticize them for their process. What do you think?

I don't either. It's a question that I get asked a lot when I go to games or when I meet with people. Because people like, you know, I did this pod with Krasinski a couple weeks ago on the Sixers and the Wolves. I called it the, oh, you forgot about us pot and that these two teams are, we're at that time trending well and sort of reminding people like, hey, like, yeah, hey, wolves, we've been in the conference finals two years in a row. I know we're not sexy. I think they're pretty damn good. Then they went right into a slump, but they've dug back out of it. And I just think roster-wise, although they have two heavy-minute bigs in Randall and Gobert,

they should have been positioned to make that decision because you need three good bigs. It gives you trade flexibility with Randall or Go-Ber if something comes down the pike. And you had Dillingham and Clark and, like, guys that were sort of waiting in the wings for some of those guard minutes. It's just sort of what if it's either or I don't lose any sleep over it. Jalen Johnson, by the way, completely legit. He used to get better defensively, but he's completely, completely legit. And he's fine.

He's good, he's average-ish defensively. He just should be better than that. Number nine. For me? Yeah. Number nine, this is where I put the bucks. Me too. I didn't know what to do with the bucks.

I'm like, I can't, when they have Janus, they're 13 and 9. When Janus is on the court, they're 20.3 points per 100 possessions better. It's the largest differential for, any player with like 500 minutes in the whole league. It completely changes everything. But they also come out and they do this disappointing crap.

And I don't know if Janus is going to be there. He's been in the lineup. He's been dealing with injuries. The rest of their roster is kind of whatever. They're not a very good margins team. I didn't really know what to do with them. I still wouldn't pick them to win a playoff series, even if they were fully healthy.

just put them at nine because I don't know. What they've done without Janus has to matter. And if I just assume Janus is there, I guess you could justify higher, but I've just been thoroughly unimpressed kind of the whole way. A couple of clarifiers. I should have said up front. The criteria for these rankings is, can you make the 2026 NBA finals? That's the criteria for me.

Number two, I'm parking the Janus thing over here. We've all talked about it. We all know who the teams are. We all know what the timing is. let's just assume for sake of discussion that this is a thing that if it happens happens over the summer and not in the season because I do think they're still trying to buy

and if they buy maybe they'll help themselves look here's the case for the Bucks you mentioned the record with Janus in the point differential with him on the floor if that were a like there are plus two with Yannis on the floor and minus 18 with him off the floor

that doesn't do anything for me as a Bucks would be Bucks optimist which I am not they are plus 10 with Janus on the floor. They're a straight up dominant team with Janus on the floor. They're starting five, which is still relatively new, of Porter, Green, Rollins, Yannis Turner, plus 59 and 114 minutes.

This is the case for the Bucks to be above this in the power rankings and to actually go in to the playoffs with a semi-not-delusional belief that we can do damages. We have the best player. And when that guy's on the floor with our team of shooters around him, we have a good shooter, a very good shooting team.

We're pretty goddamn good. I just think, obviously, there's no margin for him missing any games. In the playoffs, there's not even like a margin for him playing less than 40 minutes in some of these games. And the supporting cast is so rickety around him and semi unreliable that I just don't, I don't trust any of it. But the numbers are what they are. And I do think they'll try to do something at the trade that on. And spare me the we're four and once since Janus came back because the wins are Chicago in a close game, the dunk game. I love the dunk.

Charlotte in a semi-close game. Charlotte on a Janus basically buzzer-beater dunk almost. The Wizards they lost and then the Kings who are just, if we, I should, we should do an offseason pod on just the most unwatchable teams of the last 15 years. Just unwatchable, not even bad, unwatchable. This is, they're in the conversation. just they'd be in the conversation for a top five spot. Okay. Number eight.

Now, now it gets really interesting. It actually didn't get, like, I think that two to five, one to five is the most interesting, actually. But it starts getting interesting now, given the way Philly is playing, particularly. Who'd you have at number eight? Miami. Okay. I had Toronto. Where'd you have Toronto?

Seven. All right. So I had Miami seven. So we flipped them seven and eight. Yeah. Make the case. All right. Toronto is 21 and 15, fourth in the east.

Sixth in net rating among East teams. So a little bit above where we have them at you had them seven. I had them eighth, right? They're 19th in offense and fourth in defense overall. Miami is 20 and 16 hot lately. They are seventh in the east. So three spots behind the Raptors. They're 14th in offense and third in defense.

So similarly skewed teams. The heat are four and one in their last five. I don't know. Make the case for Toronto, we wake up, and Toronto is 2-2 in the second round of the playoffs, and we've underrated them here. Toronto is very, very good at bleeding teams late into the shot clock. And I think that's a really good skill.

I really, really like that for them. that's why they're so good defensively. They force more shots late in the clock than any other team in the league, and they force a ton of turnovers. And I think that's a really, really good combination. So I kind of think their defense is pretty real. It's why, like, I mean, I've seen some people say, like, you know, they, I think are allowing the second or third worst accuracy on three-pointers in the league right now.

And, you know, you look at that and you're like, okay, maybe that comes down. but part of the reason why is because they're giving up so many shots late in the clock. And a lot of those are just rushed, you know, grenades that end up flying out to someone and you just kind of have to put it up. They defend really hard. They force a lot of turnovers. They get out in transition. They're good in transition when they do it. The half-court offense is nothing special.

Miami's offense is really fun to watch. And Norm Powell's been amazing. But it's okay from a, you know, from an actual quality standpoint. And the other thing with Miami is I feel like both these teams have styles that they really understand and good identities and they know how to play them. But Toronto knows how to use its players. Miami is figuring out how to use its players still. Like they still don't know exactly what they're doing with the BAM wear combination. They've started the last few games.

We want to hear something crazy? So I'm watching their game on New Year's Day. and they started BAM and Ware in that game. And where is in the left corner and where just makes a pass out to BAM to the top of the key for a three? Bam goes up and shoots it and misses the three. And I'm like, whatever. That was the first time all season that Ware has made a pass to BAM for a shot. The first time all season that's happened.

Like those guys are really learning how to play together still. and they've started them the last, I think, four games. They've played 67 minutes, the last four games together, and Miami is like plus 13 or plus 15 in those 67 minutes, which is really encouraging and really good. And we've seen some BAM to wear,

we've seen some where to BAM. I just think like the most important thing you can do as a team is figure out how to maximize yourself with all of your best players on the court together and wear is really special and he's really good. And BAM is obviously phenomenal. And I think you just don't have to figure that out. And that was kind of my tiebreaker there, even though I didn't really feel incredibly strongly.

I could have gone with your order, too. Hey, look, if you want to tell me Raptors people, heat people, that you should be above even these spots, like, hey, Zach, why are you trusting the 76ers who are leaning on a rookie and a chronically injured big man and some Paul George who's been fine, but has had injury issues? what is your basis for trusting the calves who are constantly dealing with health issues and just haven't looked that good period even now that they're trending well none of their wins have left me thinking, okay, the calves, the calves are really back.

Darius Garland looks better. Hasn't cracked 20 points in his last five games looks better. Hey, Zach, why are you trusting the Orlando magic? Franz is hurt, Suggs got hurt again. Yeah, Anthony Black is breaking out. Palos had some good games. They still have fit issues, whatever. I get it.

Like I would, I get all that. With Toronto, you're dead right on their defense. And they're doing that because they're very switchy and they leverage their size on the wing really well. And they close out like maniacs. They run people off the line and the next guy is always coming. They have this bench that comes in led by Jamal Shed, Jacoby Walker and Mamu, who has been again, I'll say it again. Maybe the best bang for the buck free agency signing of the entire summer. and they just like spring traps in the back court

and teams are don't you teams are overwhelmed by the frenzy with which the Raptors play defense and offensively look they've made the best of it right and by make the best of it here's an example from a recent game are they they used the corners very well because someone's got to be in the corners you have Barrett who has handled the ball a lot in his career ingroom handles the ball a lot scotty barns handles the ball a lot well they can't all be at the top of the key handling the ball especially with Emmanuel quickly as your nominal

point guard. They got to use the corner as well. Well, here comes RJ Barrett, rocketing up from the corner into a double dribble handoff with Scotty Barnes as the first screener and Emmanuel quickly. So two of your, three of your four ball handlers together into double pick and roll on the empty side of the floor. Barnes rolls hard to the rim, which he's been doing more,

quickly flares out for three. Defense has to react to Barrett's drive because Barrett quietly 19 and 5 per game on good shooting. Kind of a glue guy for this team. Not someone that at this point, you willy-nilly throw into a trade for, I don't know, Anthony Davis making $60 million a year over the next two years. RJ Barrett comes around, kicks to quickly, wide open three, boom, quickly the shooting is trended up, decision-making up and down.

They just make the best of an imperfect fit on both ends of the floor. I just don't know what the ceiling for their offense is. Their defense is legit. And the heat, I had them above the Raptors only for, sort of heady reasons of is there a trade to be made? The bamware thing largely hasn't worked.

You mentioned it's trending a little bit better lately. The fly on the wall there is Hero. And when Hero comes back, he was available yesterday and did not play. I don't know. They're just a rock solid team.

And Yovich has come back and played well, which is encouraging for them. I think we have the right teams at seven and eight. I'm now curious who you, have at six. At number six, I have the Philadelphia 76ers.

Me too. Can we go back to the Raptors for a second? Wow, I'm surprised. We've been pretty similar. It's going to get messy soon. Okay. Back to the Raptors. I mentioned AD.

I don't do that, like, just randomly. I think they will look at pretty much every big man who's available to them because the Pertile back issue is serious enough that they just signed Mo Bamba, who was not playing anywhere. Not serious. I don't know how serious it is. I see him at games. He's walking into the games.

He's warming up sometimes. He's just not playing. I don't think Subonis will be a target for them, but could be wrong about that, but my educated guess would be no. So I don't know where they'll go. We can go through all the bigs I don't want to do right now. It just goes back. I remember you and I podcasted about this.

We picked our most, like most, I don't know what we called it, like weirdest or most bizarre contract. the offseason. And my pick was the Pertil extension, three years, whatever it was, that pays him $27 million in 2030, $29 million in 202029. So it declines a little bit. It's not a huge crippling amount of money. I just didn't get it. And if I'm another team and I've got to take that contract and a trade, like no, no thanks. Like, I, Yaka Pearl is a good player, good all-around player. It's just, I didn't get it. But anyway, I think they'll look at all the bigs. Okay, Philly, 19 and 14

5th in the east only 8th in net rating among Eastern Conference teams however everything looks rosy right now Fred Katz three straight wins blew the doors off the Knicks at MSG

Knicks were almost fully healthy for that game we're on it back to back but fully healthy Maxine Mb plus four and a half points per hundred possessions Joel I'm officially getting nervous

because he looks markedly better than he did two weeks ago. He dunked for the first time all season in that game. Mock celebrated at the end of the game. He's jumping higher. I don't have the tools to measure that, but I can tell you that when Oji and Ninobe drove along the baseline and Jol and Bede went up with perfect verticality, he went up higher than he's been on pretty much any shot challenge like that this season.

His rim frequency on offense is up. he's seeking a little bit more contact on offense, which is good. And I just love the way he's playing with Edgecombe and Maxie and Grimes. And McCain is sort of the fourth guy in that order now and his head of season. Embeded is playing very much with them and not apart from them. So you guys want to run ahead.

Like I'll throw a hit ahead pass. You guys go, VJ Edgecombe, you are a fiend in transition. I'm cool hanging back behind half court. You guys go finish the job. His average time per touch this season is 2.2 seconds. That's half a second to a second lower than he was in his big MVP years. He is very much sharing the offense with them and taking it over in a way at times it makes sense.

Paul George has been awesome. They have two first round picks at their disposal to trade and kind of a hole at power forward depending on, I don't know if they have a hold, because Barlow's been good. Jabari Walker's been good. They played Paul Georgia Power Forward sometimes with the key three guards in Embed. That is trending right. I don't know, man. The way they're playing right now, they can beat any of these teams above them in a

playoff series, period. That's how good they look right now. I have them here for the obvious reasons. I don't trust Joel Embed's health. And it makes me a little nervous to be very reliant on a real. and they're a little undersized at guard, although all those guards fight like hell on defense. But if this is the Joel Embed,

forget like he keeps trending up above this. If just this is the Joel Embed they get in the playoffs and he's able to play every game, they should not be scared of anybody above them. I don't know if they have enough gas to win three playoff series in the East, but they are absolutely capable of beating any of that. You think that they're scared of the Knicks?

They went toe to toe with the Knicks in the playoffs, Freddie, and it was like one, two calls away from going the other way. I don't know, man. I'm getting a little nervous about how, like, I've just, I got to check myself a little bit. Got to check. That's why I have them six. Got to check myself a little bit, Fred. And they've been the next twice at MSG recently.

And Maxie, oh my goodness, the year Maxie is having, like, Maxie might end up first team all NBA. I talked about this. If Wemby and if Wembe misses enough games and Yannis misses enough games to disqualify them because of the stupid 65 game rule, which should I I talked about it last week I don't like that it applies

to all NBA to the strict degree that it does he's going to be in a really interesting conversation with guys like Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson

and Jalen Brown who we're going to get to for a first team all NBA spot he's been that good yeah 100% I mean and MVP ballots

like all of a sudden if those guys aren't eligible now you're starting to talk about like him and Kade three and four something like that like he has been

outrageous with the way that he's been leading this team this year. Those guards just smack you in the face. Their speed is unbelievable. And I was, they played the Knicks recently, and so I'm based at New York. So I'm in there visiting locker room, and I was just chatting with Quentin Grimes.

And we were talking about Embed, and I was asking him, is it like, is it tough to catch a rhythm right now in terms of like the overall team when Embed's in, he's out, he's in, he's out? Do you feel like you have to accommodate him? And Grimes was like, no, it's the opposite. Like he's accommodating us.

And when he comes back, the amount of just attention that comes off of us is just night and day. Like when he's back, it's just, it's unbelievable. And you're right. Like, you know what he had before the dunk? That was awesome. I heard you mention it on the pod the other day. And I had a similar reaction. He had that play.

The self-aloupe. Yeah. But you know why? That was awesome. You know what that was great? It was because he thought he could do it. Like how. How often early in the year did we see, oh, he's not dunking because he doesn't think he can dunk.

He's not making these plays because he doesn't think he can do it yet. That was just like. If I'm Nick Nurse or Daryl Morey, that's a thousand dollar fine if you try that again. We're not we're not playing that game, big man, big fellow. But you know what? The dunk at the end of the next game, fine. Nobody was near you. Just plop it in there.

The self-out loop, we're not doing it again. Full, that was a full, that was full force of cockiness right there. That was like, I am, I am ratcheting it all the way back. He felt comfortable. He felt confident. He felt good in his body when he did it. He missed the dunk. And he almost did it.

Like, he just missed the dunk. But if he, like, I just thought the ambition to be able to do that was something we hadn't really seen from him early in the year. He looks really good. The jump shooting still needs to come around, which it probably will. The guy used. I trust his jump shot. Me too.

I just like, I look at the jump shooting as a, I should say I trust his long two. I'm not sure I trust the three. It'll be better than it is now as he gets his legs underneath him even more. But I don't like he's going to be a mid-30s three-point shooter on wide open shots. The long two, I trust as a Dirk level fail-safe for them. Yeah. He's one of the best mid-range shooters in the league.

When he goes in a slump, I consider it a fluke and I move forward with that. But they can give you a lot of different looks. Hedgecombe. Edgecombe was just a force, man. He is a force. He had a play against the Knicks the other day where he blocked Mikkel Bridges on a corner three. And then dunked on the other end. It was the first time Mikkel Bridges has been blocked on a three in two years.

He blocked him on a corner three. Cal Bridges does it ridiculously. Michael Bridges' mechanics are 100% just to avoid contests. Like that's why he shoots the way he does. He has such an insanely high release. He has ridiculously long arms. It's just to avoid a hand in his face when he goes up. And Hitchcombe got, you want to talk about it.

and be getting up high. Edgecombe got up so high to block that corner three and then got the transition dunk, which was like a ferocious dunk. I mean, he is something else. And I'm waiting for McCain to turn it around. He's a really smooth off the dribble player

and a really good shooter. I'm waiting for him to find some comfort level, coming back from the injury and kind of within this, you know, smaller role that he has. I mean, and Paul George has been the perfect version of Paul George for this team. And this is more or less, this is like with Vijay Edgecombe, the team that everybody, including me, was kind of optimistic about going into last year, which ends up being a disaster.

And it just can't, you can't say enough, this series of events, the basketball gods had to go through to get Maxie and Edgecombe onto this team in terms of pick protections and where the, like Muscala going crazy in the last game of the season. But they're here. And Edgecombe, look, everybody in Dallas wants the rookie of the year. race to be over. And they're appalled that anyone is talking about anybody else for a key of the year. And I do think it's going to come down to Cooper Flag, who is awesome and Khan Kinniple. Vijay Etchcombe is averaging 16 and a half points a game on a real team, a team that's winning games, flags at 19 a game and Kinnipples at 19.4. Edgcombe is shooting 38% on threes. He's defending quite often the best perimeter player on the other team regardless of position,

but particularly if they are a lead point guard like Gell and Brunson. Cooper Flagg is shooting 27% on threes. Kind of a problem. Now, I do think his defensive ceiling is super high. His playmaking is secondary playmaker when they actually use him in that way. And they've begun benching Ryan Nemhart again and starting point flag, which I don't really get. I think he'll be the best player out of this class. He's probably going to be my pick for a year.

But, you know, Edgecombe, I think, would probably finish third right now because Kinpel 19.4 points per game 48% shooting 56% on 2s 43% on 3s Flag's a better defender he's a better passer by a little bit

he's probably a better all-around player long term if not now I'm sorry that the rookie the race is open between those two guys and Edgecombe is as strong a third place finisher as you'll find and I'm not closing the book on him climbing up he's been awesome be interesting to see what they do

at the trade deadline because they are over the tax, which is a little bit prohibitive. But they have those picks to trade. And if they got any kind of upgrade at the four, look out. Okay. Kelly Ubray has been out too. Kelly Ubris and out. And Ubray will fit in well when he's back.

He fits in. That's what he does. Paul Georgia, Power Forward, by the way, they're plus 13 per 100 possessions according to Cleaning Glass. Maybe they don't need an upgrade there. Maybe just roll it this and see what happens. Oh, I know what I was going to say. That Knicks game, an example,

of Embedd fitting in. They ran the same play probably 20 times in that game. And it was Maxie and Embed pick and roll on the left side of the floor. No one else on that side. And as they're running a pick and roll, and Embedd's rolling to the rim for the most part,

he's not just doing the MB thing of I'm going to lope back to the three point arc. They're running that play on the left side. Paul George is curling around a screen or Quinn Grimes is curling around a screen in the right corner. And then someone else is flashing up on the right wing to give Maxi an outlet.

They tore the Knicks apart on that play. Embed scored at the rim. Paul George hit corner threes. And the best one of all was Maxi came around the screen, hit Edgecombe on the right wing as his release valve. Edgecombe touched it to Embed, rolling towards the rim. Embed dropped it off to Jabari Walker for a dunk.

Those are the kind of plays. You see those kind of plays. You're like, there's something really right going on in the ecosystem of this team. But this episode is brought to you by Service Now. Look, I have my dream job. I get to watch basketball, think about basketball, talk about basketball.

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Same-day delivery, it's on Prime. Visit Amazon.com slash Prime to find millions of items delivered fast. Available in select areas, terms apply. They're still six. Okay, now we get into the who the fuck knows zone of the top five. And again, if you want to put Philly in here, fine. I got no argument with you.

Who'd you have five? Orlando. Okay, so here's who we have left, to be clear. Detroit, Cleveland, Boston, Orlando. I also had Orlando fifth. So we have the same top five. And New York. And New York.

Did I not say New York, New York? Orlando's fifth. They're fifth for me, too. I think they could make the finals and their fifth. I think they can make the finals because I don't know who to have real strong faith in above them for various reasons as like a no-brainer. like that's a finals quality team. I don't think there is that team in the Eastern Conference.

You can make an argument for Orlando at any spot in the top five. They are here for me for the simplest possible reason. Jalen Suggs has heard again. And I think he is the skeleton key for this team for the Bancaro Franz Wagner fit, which is still kind of unproven. I think their defense, which is currently 11th, is going to be top five to six quality when healthy. They're 13th on offense.

That's great. Bancaro has been playing better. the last week or so. I just, I wish I, and Anthony Black is breaking out into like a star, third, fourth kind of player on both ends of the floor.

I just wish I had any faith in jail and sucks to stay healthy, let alone anyone else on the team suffering an ill-timed injury. Can we talk about Anthony Black? Sure. I feel like, I feel like people aren't really realizing

exactly what's happening with Anthony Black lately. Like, it's not that Anthony Black is, oh, all of a sudden, this guy is starting to hit his threes, and now he's becoming the really good role player that people would have wanted. His last nine games, he's averaging 24 a game on ridiculous shooting. His playmaking is great. When he first came into the league, he didn't have the shot, and he had the athleticism. He had the explosiveness.

He had the defense. He had the size. He had the length. It was a bunch of tools. Maybe the most informative thing, a scout has ever told me. and it completely changed the way that I look at players is that every single person when they watch a basketball player has a bias

towards tools. But tools don't matter. It's how you use the tools. So you look at a player who's long and athletic and quick and fast and jumps high and physical and whatever else, but if they don't use those tools to actually do anything well, you're going to get deceived.

And we see that with players all the time. And it's not that Black didn't do those things well, but he didn't do enough. He didn't use those tools well enough for us to really see stuff. When he first came in the league, he was like, I was going to use my size and my strength and my speed.

I'm going to dart to the rim. And that's just what I'm going to do. And he's like, he's like, I wrote on him last week. I compared him to a pitcher who just threw all fastballs and didn't have any sort of other bitch to add to it.

And all of a sudden, he's like, he's added a change up. And he's added, he's added a pretty good sweeper. And like, And the Mets sign him to be in their starting class in this scenario and their starting rotation because they could use it. They could use it.

You could be an Edwin-Diaz replacement. Good luck with Devin Williams, by the way. He's been... He's been... Look, I'm a Yankees fan. I had to deal with Devin Williams. It was quite the experience. I didn't know that, Fred.

You're now banned. Enjoy your last appearance on Zach Lowe's show. Thanks for coming out. That's okay. It's worth it. It's worth it. I got to support the Yankees. Black has so many moves around the rim now.

So many moves. I know he's been working, the assistant coach who works out with there is God Sham God. And he has been working with him on all this kind of stuff. So he's got this really nice Euro step now. He has this awesome up and under, which like he'll jump stop into the driver, and then he'll fake up and then he'll go under.

He'll do it against Biggs. He tries the little Rondo fake. Like he has so many different moves around the rim. And he'll also just have. place where he's like, oh, I'm just going to dunk on you right now. Or I'm just going to power through you and I'm just going to finish a totally normal looking layup as if there's no defender there, even though there was somebody contesting, but I'm so fast and so strong and I'm going to do it. Meanwhile, he's hitting tons of threes now. And he's a very good defender.

I'm like watching him as like, wait, is, I always thought there was potential for Anthony Black to become a real player and a good player on a winning team. I, I, you know, never really thought about him as like, wait, is Anthony Black going to be awesome potentially? And now I'm watching him, like, he might become awesome. If he does become awesome, what the heck does Orlando do? Because they've got Suggs, who's tremendously important under contract, big contract moving forward, bang, big contract moving forward. Franz and Paolo, max contracts moving forward. Like, how is Orlando going to handle this?

I know there are a lot of people in the league who are already looking around. Even before Black's breakout, there are people in the league who were looking around are like right after they traded for Bain. I feel like everyone's reaction in the league was like, okay, is there going to be a Suggs trade coming? Because like this team has second apron dangers and at some point they will have to move on from some of these guys in some way. And if they're not good enough, then they're going to have to make a move. And if Anthony Black is really awesome, like that just makes that process even more urgent. I am really curious, but for now, like, oh, I've loved watching Anthony Black. Oh, my goodness.

He can't come out of the starting lineup. That's why one of my favorite fake trades before I realized it was not illegal, but very hard to do, is Ban Carroll for Janus with Orlando sitting more than that to get Janus, but that's off the table. Poison pill for Palo. Anthony Black All-Star, not this year, but Anthony Black, future All-Star is officially in play. What's been interesting, and you mentioned

how his combination of craft and power around the basket, I'm waiting for the team that just treats him like Rondo. That's like, we're going under every pick against you. And watching the Pacers blitz him last time, I'm like, I don't understand why you're doing that. Now, it could be because teams have just decided

he's too good for that. He's too good for that because if he knows we're going under, the magic can set the screens lower and flip him and do all that stuff. And he's so fast and powerful that he'll beat us to the spot behind the screen and just go through us for a lab. It could be that teams have enough respect for his jump shot now. It's not just that he's shooting better from three,

he's shooting more of them and more from above the break, and it's like a reasonable outcome for the magic. What this means for their future of Suggs at 30 plus million, Black, Ban Karo and Wagner on Max's, the latter two on Maxes, we'll see. I mean, Sugs, I'm not sure how teams would approach Suggs in a trade, given that again, he's hurt. And for now, for the purposes of this power rankings,

there's been so much scrutiny on Bancaro. And they've found something with Bain, Black, Suggs, and one of Wagner and Bancero. And I do think Bancero is making a concerted effort to make faster decisions. When he gets into trouble is when the ball stops with him, and that's partly his fault. And he'll sometimes go one-on-one against guys

that are just like you going one-on-one from 19 feet against Pascal Seacom is a bad outcome for our team. But it's also partly the magic's fault. Like if the ball, if one action kicked to Bancaro at the top of the arc and no one moves and no one sets a screen for him and no one cuts, that's the team's fault too. But I do think he's trying to shave a little bit of that out of his game. The way for him is screen roll, make plays. They sometimes run him off pin downs. Quick, make the next play.

Like you can walk into 25, 30 points playing that way. way. Anyway, I just don't trust the health enough to have them above fifth. If you add them in the top three, I contemplated them as high as two. I can't get to one with them, but the health is what it is. I think any of these five teams could win the East, by the way.

Any of the top five? Maybe even, I mean, I struggle to say Philly because I don't see Embed just having it last for that long. Philly could beat anyone, but I don't know if they could beat any three. But I think anyone in the top five could do it.

Let's get spicy, Fred. Orlando at five was, I think, the easiest call of these five teams, and it wasn't an easy one at all. Who'd you have at four? Cleveland. Me too. This is not spicy at all. I flip-flop Cleveland and a couple of other teams, particularly Boston, because, and Detroit, like, Detroit has, do I trust their spacing? Do I trust their secondary ball handling around Cade?

Boston has, like, I don't even understand what's happening here, how a team with no proven NBA big men is playing this well, but they are this good. And this is four, this is 34 games of them being the best point differential team in the East. And Cleveland, I initially had them third. I flirted with them at second because I've seen the ceiling and I know what it is with these four guys playing together. I just, my faith is a little bit fractured. Garland again has looked better, but not still not great. I'm not scared of Darius Garland when he has the ball the way that I should be

some of the craft and change of pace I thought about his back but he's not like blowing up as a score or a distributor really. He's been fine. He's been good. They're still going to be undersized at the, at guard. They're not healthy. Like Wade's been, Wade's missed a couple of games.

You know, Jared Allen was out with, I think, an illness yesterday or two days ago, whenever they last yesterday against Detroit. They lost that game to the Pistons who are obviously above them on both of our lists. Struce, like, when is he coming back? Is he coming back? Like, what's happening with Max Struz? I'm tired of admiring his collection of baseball hats on the bench.

Like, is he going to play? I'm glad. I'm kind of glad that they have minimized, although they brought them back yesterday. I just don't, I don't like their small three-guard lineups. I don't like Merrill plus Garland plus Lonzo. Merrill plus Garland plus Mitchell. I just think it's too small. Lonzo has been largely not good for them.

Tyson has been a godsend and has changed their season. I just, it just feels too shaky for me. The Hunter fit hasn't been good. I just, they're on paper, they're better than four. And I'm projecting this as they're like ranking going forward as their championship chances.

I just can't put them, I can't put them above four. My faith has been wobbled. Yeah, I feel very similarly to where I'm like, I'm watching them. I even watch them against Phoenix. I'm like,

this kind of looks like the cabs, like last year's calves. This looks like the offense that could get anything. It looks like, it looks like the Jared Allen that you want to see too. Like Jared Allen just like wasn't playing in fourth quarters for such a long time. It lasted like two games. It was great.

Can I see it for, can I see it for three weeks? They beat the, they did a great win against the Spurs. That was awesome. That's why I've got it at four. Like Boston is just, to me like Boston's just like,

they did it. The calves are. the calves are honestly at four in theory for me. I'm like, okay, it's treading in a better direction. It's trending in a better direction right now. So I'm going to have them at four in theory. But if I have them, if I do just purely off of results for the first 35, 36 games of the year, Cleveland has not been the fourth best team in the league so far this year.

And with Boston, I just look at it. In the east, no, they're eight. Oh, in the east. I'm sorry. In the east. In the east. Yes. I mean, I look at Boston.

And I'm like, Boston's got the result. like Boston has done this, and we can talk about Boston. Garland's been better. I mean, I think ultimately what it comes down to in Cleveland is like, I really think it comes down to Garland. I really think everybody has underrated that guy's importance to their offense for a really long time. Donovan Mitchell is amazing.

He is their star. No disagreements. And he has been unbelievable the entire season. However, Garland is the dude. who is kind of the heartbeat of their offense. Like, or maybe, maybe Mitchell is the heart and, and, and, and, and Garland is just the brain. Because he's the guy who's operating everything. He's the guy who's getting downhill.

He's the guy creating corner threes. Like, Cleveland was, was creating bad threes in the early part of the year. They weren't getting to the rim at all in the early part of the year, whether Garland played or they didn't. And Garland was having plays where, like, clearly the Cho was affecting him. And if he gets healthy, I think that team looks, a lot different. I think we're starting to see good signs of that. I'm just not all the way there.

Good, good signs, again, like he's been fine. You know, the last two weeks, he's been largely fine. I don't know if fine is good enough to win the east.

And, you know, even yesterday he had a, I can't remember if he took a hard fall or something where he looked like he something bad happened to his foot and then he shook it off and he was fine. But like 16 and six, 18 and 8, 19 and 6, 15 and 11, 12 and 1 assists.

Like, those are okay games. They're not earth-shattering games. And going into the season, I did a podcast with Blake Griffin. I remember right before the season. And it was just, let's bounce around eight big questions for the season. And we had to cut it for time. And one of the ones I didn't end up asking him for time was, do we get to the end of the season and just conclude Evan Mobley as a center?

And I wish we had had that discussion at the time, because you mentioned Jared Allen's fourth quarter minutes dwindling and like how much faith did they have in that conversation. It's just too many big picture questions right now. Could they make the finals? Absolutely. I did not pick them to make the finals before the season. I picked the Knicks.

I'm going to stick with that pick and live with it. Just doesn't feel great. Okay, so we have the same top three in some order. I went and I don't feel good about it. I don't feel good about it. I went New York, Detroit, Boston. What did you do? that's what you did one two three or three two one two three i went

i'm we new york detroit we we i don't think we deviated more than one spot on any team uh new let's let's let's let's talk about boston who has a legitimate claim remarkably to the number one spot i almost put them at four because i i just i'm just shocked like neemikata is their starting center Their starting at four is now Houser. It was kind of Jalen Brown slash Jordan Walsh for a while. Now, Jordan Walsh is coming off the bench. Mynott has disappeared from their rotation.

He played some minutes at the four. Their backup five is either nobody or Luca Garza, who is playing out of his mind in the last three or three weeks. It just didn't feel like a front court that was going to be good enough to hold up against the best NBA teams. And it has been. And Kate has been unbelievable. They also have been basically completely healthy

at the top of their rotation. Pritchard White, Brown have been healthy pretty much the whole season. Brown, I think, missed a couple games at some point. They're second in the entire stinking NBA in offense. I can't even believe how good they are offensively. They are the most, the slipperiest pick and roll attack in the entire league is Boston.

Derek White is a menace to society as the back screener in Spain pick and rolls. And for people who don't know what a Spain pick and roll is, it looks like a regular pick and rule between, let's say, Jalen Brown and Kada. But Derek White is coming up the lane setting a back screen on Kada's guy to confuse the defense to give maybe Jalen Brown a free role to him. Except Derek White sometimes doesn't even set that screen. He goes up to set it and then he goes sideways and he's open for a three. They are so hard to contain on the ball. they have a legitimate claim to number one simply because they have been

the number one point differential team in the East I can't believe how good they are and I'll say this everyone's been and then the Tatum thing Nerf gunned to my head I think Tatum's coming back this season I don't know what that means for the Celtics I don't know how he looks

I don't know if he wants to step in immediately to being Jason Tatum if so what that does to the team instead of being like a secondary guy and feeling his way back in, seems like it can't hurt. Like I'd like to have Jason Tatum in some form on this team,

even a sort of recovering Jason Tatum. I just, and everyone has been sort of penciling them in as a salary dump team and they may dump salary. I'm putting it out there. I think they might buy at the trade deadline. And I think they should.

I think they should look They have a lot of draft assets to trade. I don't think it's going to be anything splashy. It may not even end up adding payroll to their team. I think there's a Simons for a big man trade, a spare parts and a pick for a big man trade. I don't know who the player is. Like would Yusuf Nurkich off their team?

I don't know. It's going to be something unsexy like that. I think they're buying. I think they should buy. I think Detroit, who we will get to, absolutely should be a buyer at the trade deadline, even though they're a young team, young teams typically don't get far in the playoffs, yada,

this conference is so open that I don't even think those rules apply to a team like the Pistons, but the Celtics are just, maybe the story of the NBA season is Boston. I think they're legit. And I think that big three of Brown, Pritchard, white on the perimeter,

is just rock solid on both ends of the floor. And Jalen Brown, Jailen Byr's averaging 30 points a game. 51% shooting, 37% on threes, should be in the conversation for first team all NBA if one of those spots opens up.

Jalen Brown has been unbelievable. Just went for 50 the other night. Didn't win player of the month seemed genuinely hurt by not winning player of the month. Got the support of Joe Missoula for not winning player of the month. We have so many awards now.

Is there another stupid award the NBA can make up? We have Defender of the week or month and coach of the by, weekly, could we give them the semi-JCPenney semi-annual player of the month? Like what can we give him? Yeah, I think they should have Best Jalen of the month?

Yeah, they should have Best picksetter of the High Holy Holies. They can do that too. We could do a whole thing. Best number seven of the month? Best number seven. I would take best number seven. I don't know player numbers. Totally off on player numbers. Luca Dajic wins Best 77 of the month

for the 47th consecutive week, but Vijay Etchkoe might steal it next week. Jalen Brown. Brought to you by Kia. Jalen Brown. Jailen Brown has been unbelievable. Derek White got off to a really cold start with a shot,

and now it just looks like Derek White again is hitting a ton of threes and being awesome. I mean, the offense that Joe Missoula has set up to is pretty amazing. Like, the system is unbelievable. I did a story probably a month ago,

a month and a half ago about why offensive rebounding is so back in the NBA. And there's more offensive rebounding now. They're like 20 teams, 18 teams with an offensive rebound rate above 30% right now. And only a few years ago, it was like five. Only five years ago, it was one. Teams are crashing the boards like never before. And they're crashing more guys and they're doing it stylistically differently. And the Celtics, dating back to E. Meudoka as their head coach, have been ahead of the curve on this for a while. Udoca has, I should say, Missoula, who was an assistant under Odoca, has like only taken it further. He's become obsessed with the science of crashing. And you look at some of their like wings off the bench. Like you look at like Jordan Walsh.

And you look at how they use him after a shot goes up. And they're like, Jordan Walsh, just go freaking crazy when a shot goes up. You are going to go to the rim. You're just going to B line there and you're going to get everything. And guess what? Jordan Walsh has been really, really good for them this year, especially at that. It's helping their bigs. It's helping their second chances. Right now, they're just like such an analytically friendly team, right?

I mean, they're just more threes than anybody. Top five, top six, an offensive rebound rate. They're number one in turnover rate offensively. They just never turn the ball over. And when you win the possession game to that degree, because you're not, you're not turning the ball over because you're creating extra chances with your offensive rebounds and then you're turning those chances into threes like you are going to maximize and you have good three-point shooters like you are going to maximize your chances of having a pretty good offense like that formula

is awesome it's it's it's really good i think they're just really good i don't think there's anything flukish about them and freaking jalen brown like that guy saw a challenge in front of them and could have said this is going to be a gap year, and instead is just so much better, has just answered the call in every single way possible, as a facilitator, as a scorer. His handle, which he's been killed for forever, is better. He had a spin move a couple of games ago,

which didn't even lead to a bucket, but I was like, oh my goodness, that lefty spin around a dude. I was like, that was just unbelievably quick, and he maintained his balance. His balance has been unbelievable off the dribble, the ability to create shots. He's been amazing.

I have an All-Star ballot this year. Like, no-brainer, All-Star starter in the game that doesn't make any sense. He's been amazing. And the talent drain that had me take the under, that had me pessimistic about them

relative to certainly this, 22 and 12, the talent drain has not been a talent drain. Drew Holiday hasn't played in forever. Christop Sporzingis has not played much for the Hawks. And by the way, the Hawks will tell you, yeah, we've struggled with Trey defensively. We know that we want to see what Trey with a rim protector actually looks like because the Congress, as good as he is, is not giant around the basket.

Yeah, kind of should have factored in KP missing some games. I should have factored in KP missing more games than I did. By the way, just one last, just to rub my own face in the dirt on the Hawks. Can we start talking about Dyson Daniels being seven of the ones? of 57 on threes this season. I was just talking about that with people. 12%. He made 83s last year.

What? What? He's lost his confidence. That was a thing in New Orleans. New Orleans, the whole thing with him in New Orleans was he'd miss some shots. And then all of a sudden he'd be like, oh, missed the shot. I'm kind of out. And then it would add this hesitance.

Yeah, when you're 7 and 57, I'm kind of, I kind of, I'm cool with you hesitating. It's not helping anymore. But I think it all snowballs. It all snowballs. Like last year he hit some shots and the Hawks were really excited that they felt like he kind of evolved from that. And I think this year there's been some reversion because we see hesitants in other parts of his game. Like, don't get me wrong.

Defensively, he's still excellent. But I don't think he's been at the level defensively this year. He was last year. The steals and deflections, the defensive playmaking isn't quite there. Every once in a while, I'll be like, you know what? I feel like last year you would have been like a quarter of a step faster on that. I think there's just been more hesitance in his game overall. And like to me, with him, that always starts with his shooting.

Like he's just, he just gets his own head about it. And, you know, and Horford is the other guy. He's not played much for the Warriors, played a little better lately. Talent range just hasn't been just continuing the tradition of guys who get traded and or leave Boston. like somehow flatlining wherever they go next. The only orange flag for Boston is they're shooting, their number two in mid-range shooting. And part of that is Jilline Brown being sensational.

Is any of that going to regress? And they're 27th in defensive rebounding front line issues. But that's been actually trending better. And Derek White, I'm going to do my all-stars again later this week, going to take a fresh look at it. He's going to rank way higher than he did a month ago. That guy is a sensational two-way play. player. That leaves us with Detroit and New York.

Who played night. Who played tonight. Troy on a back to back. I'm a little, and New York's been banged up. I'm less excited about it. And Detroit's missing Duren, Levert. So I'm Tobias Harris. So I'm a little less excited about it than I would be. Detroit and Bill nailed this last week in talking about Trey Murphy the third. Detroit, to me, is the most interesting trade deadline team, not necessarily because they are super hungry to make a trade. I actually don't think they are. I just think they should

and that all common sense signs point toward them making a trade. Or at least, like nothing, if they make a trade, and it's always been marketing and is the guy that we've all discussed. It's not going to be that. The jazz are keeping marketing in, I think.

But I think I have been derelict and Bill reminded me of this with his pod last week and discussing sort of sub-marketing deals for them. He mentioned Michael Porter Jr., because clearly they need shooting. And that's sort of reason, number one, why they are an interesting trade team to me. They just, like, they have this Assar Thompson question of, like,

can we close games with him? Can we even play for a single minute, Assar Thompson plus Giovante Green plus one of our centers, or is the spacing just not good enough? They have, Jaden Ivy seems like a lost soul there now, who might have some appeal as sort of a, second chance lottery pick guy. He's losing minutes to Dennis Jenkins.

Marcus Sasser has come back and shot the hell out of it. It just feels like it's not going to happen at least this year. And this year, for me, despite the fact that they're still young, Duren is 21 years old. Cade is still very young in his career. On and on and on. Assar Thompson is very young in his career. Missed a lot of last season.

Despite the fact that they have won zero playoff series, I just think this conference is so open and this team is the second best defensive team in the league. They're rebound like all held. They're toughest hell to play against. I think they should be going for it. And this is just me talking. Like, if I can get Shrey Murphy the third for Tobias Harris

and some first round picks, maybe three first round picks into swap and Ivy, I'm thinking really hard about doing that. The three picks is a lot. Fine, they're my picks. I got to use them at some point. The rubber could meet the road with Asar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart because I can see

particularly if it's New Orleans given Troy we were in Detroit and drafted a couple of those guys I could see one of those guys being asked for I'm not trading a Sar Thompson I just think like if you told me in a year of Sar Thompson's better

than Trey Murphy the third I wouldn't be surprised the potential is too high Isaiah Stewart's a tough one it's a tough one I just think this team should do something I think they need to do something they're number two on my list So clearly I think they could make the finals as is. That's more about the East than it is about them.

I just have too many questions about their offense right now. Yeah, I'll tell you this. I think they would think really hard about not doing that trade. They really value Tobias Harris as like a veteran in the locker room and like a show guy's stuff. If they're going to trade them, I think what you're saying, though, is probably the way they're going to do it. Like, I don't think they're going to make some sort of move that doesn't contribute well to their future beyond stuff. I don't think they're thinking,

I don't think they're thinking short term, really at all there. And I think in the long run right now, they kind of want to see what they have. And I also think a gargantuan salary for more than a year or two is a problem for them

because they're going to have to pay Duren and I think they want to pay Duren given how he's played. I just, I'd like it. I'd like an offensive upgrade who can sustain on defense, maybe a little bit more than Duncan Robinson can in a high-level playoff series. Yeah, I think they also want to see what they have in terms of paying these guys, right?

Because Duren is up after this year. They were so far apart in contract negotiations this summer that, like, there weren't even really contract negotiations. And then a Sart Thompson, you're going to have to pay some amount to because he's a really good player. And you kind of have to see, like, okay, so a couple games ago against Miami, Tobias Harris is out. and they start a lineup they've been using a pretty good amount this year

and it's been pretty good with Isaiah Stewart at the four next to Duren and they have a Sarr out there defensive player of the month Isaiah Stewart by the way. Put some respect on his name. That dude can guard. That dude can guard.

Isaiah Stewart allowing 42% shooting on dunks and laps when he's the closest defender. Crazy. By far, by far the number one shot deter or whatever we're going to call it in the league. And he was number one and that's that last year. Like he leads the league like by a mile in that.

He's been, he's been awesome. He's been blocking more shots this year. Like, kind of like Isaiah Stewart is like a sneaky six man of the year candidate, even though nobody thinks he fits that mold. Like, if six men of the year is somebody who just comes in and just fuck shit up in every way possible.

How about helps you win? Helps you win basketball games. Yeah. Like, he's just good. He's just really good. good. But that lineup is like, okay, Duren doesn't shoot threes. Added a low mid-range jumper, that's nice,

doesn't shoot threes. Isaiah Stewart has been shooting him more and shooting him better this year, but he's not good enough to where teams guard him when he's actually on the perimeter. He doesn't help as a spacer in that sense, even though he helps as a shooter. A SAR, not a shooter. Cade, that's the weak point in his game.

Like, you're playing with a bunch of guys with just aren't shooters. And the spacing, I think, is a concern in a playoff series. I think if we're talking about a playoff series, the reason why I have them behind the Knicks, even though I think they've been kind of better than the Knicks this year,

I'm concerned about the Knicks defense. They've not been kind of better. They've been better. They're 26 and 9. They have the second best net rating in the east behind Boston. They're ninth in offense and second in defense. They have been flat out better than the Knicks.

Yeah. And the reason why I have them behind the Knicks, I'm sure they're going to be Detroit fans or Detroit people who disagree with me. which is fine, it's justifiable. But the reason why I have them behind is, number one, the shooting, which I think that those kinds of flaws in a playoff series, those kinds of flaws really tend to show up.

And those warts get really, really, really painful in a playoff series. And number two, you know, the Thunder just won a title as a really young team. But, like, to me, the exception and experience matters. They played the Knicks really close in a playoff series last year. If the ball doesn't go through Malik Beasley's hands, if there isn't a terrible call made on what should have been a foul on Josh Hart at the end of game four, like the Pistons might win that series. They played a ridiculously close series and physical series against the Knicks last year.

And I think that shaped them a lot. But they're crazy physical team. The defense is totally real. The tandem that they have with Duren and Stewart is great. Cade has been an MVP ballot candidate. and Duren is, I don't know, I'd have to think about it more before I say he is the leader for MIP, but he's certainly right up there. Like his game is totally different than it was.

I think people discussed him as this awesome rim diving center when he first came in. But the reality is now he's like, he'll rush the ball up in transition. He's hitting that little middy. He's making passes to the corners out of the short roll and even out of the post. He's scoring around the hoop. And his pick and roll defense, like teams used to run. I talked to him about this recently for a story I'm working on that is not yet. But when he first came in the league, like the MO on the Pistons was like, all right, let's bring

Jayland Duren into space. Let's just pick on Jalen Duren. And I was talking to him about it. I was like, how did you react to that? He was like, it was the only, he's like, it's the only time in my life to that point I had ever been picked on. Like, Jailen Duran's this massive dude. He was like, I'd never been picked on before.

And it just, it sucked to have to deal with that kind of stuff. He's made himself into a much better. Pick and Roll Defender, Defender in Space, team defender, rim protector, just a way better player. And he is going to make, I don't know what he's going to get this summer, he's going to make a lot of money. He's going to make a ton of money. I've been a big general, Jordan fan for a long time. I'm not surprised. He's awesome.

Ron Holland, another guy that we mentioned, we did not mention is a non-shooter. Look, they make up for their lack of shooting with physicality, toughness, rebound, and cutting. IQ, all the stuff that translates to the playoffs, all the stuff to translate it to that series against the Knicks, which proves something to themselves and prove something to me as an observer. Like there's something legit in the heartbeat of this team and about how they play that is problematic for the Knicks. And you mentioned that foul on a Tim Hardaway, non-fowl on Tim Hardaway Jr.'s corner three. I just don't think their offense is good enough.

Their spacing is enough for me to pick them to win three playoff series. But in this conference, they could. This is the last thing we say about distance. I'm just, I'm going to predict it today. This is based on no intel. In fact, most of the intel is that they're going to be cautious at the trade deadline, as you said, for lots of different reasons. I think they're making a trade. I think they're making a consolidation win now trade.

I don't think it's going to be big. I don't think it's necessarily going to be big. It may not even be Tray Murphy the third big. It may be something smaller than that. I don't think this roster is going to look exactly the same after the trade deadline. And I don't think it's going to be like a little salary dump or this, this like just a time. tiny little trade. I think there's just, they have a lot of guys who can play. And if I think there's got to be a three for one kind of trade that helps them.

And if I'm if, and I would be more aggressive than trade your Langdon probably will be. And trade your Langdon is smarter about me than basketball by leaps and bounds. So I would defer to him. I think this conference is there for the taking and that they could take it with one even like decent trade. And it's there for the taking because the number one team on our list is the New York Nick's and they at this point with the defense that has fallen to

16th, they are here now by default for me. They are here because someone has to be. They are here because they were my pick to make the finals and I'm going to stick with it. Their offense is 1,000% legit. Their fourth in offense, I think

they're probably even better than that. They've been a little banged up lately. Colac has cemented himself as a real bench guy. Yaboo is looking a little better. I don't know if I believe it. McCuller's giving it. them good minutes. Like they're getting enough stuff off the bench. McBride just makes every shot. They've got a lot of tools in their toolbox. They don't have

a lot of trade flexibility because they're like a 50 cents under the second apron or something like that. But I have faith in their offense. I have faith in their toughness. And I have faith in their defense to be just good enough when Hart and Annanobie and Robinson are all healthy. and the coaching staff really decides how are we going to scheme Carl Anthony Towns out of pain on defense? Because what you're concerned about and what I'm concerned about is the teams that see him and drop defense and have guards and are just like go, go, because he ain't stopping you

and then they're going to scrunch in from everywhere else and stuff's going to open up for us. And it's a concern. We all know that the Brunson cat bookends of the defense is a concern. There's only so many ways around it. I do think the coaching staff probably has some cards in their pocket that they haven't played much of this season. And when they're healthy, there's just enough between Bridges Hart and

Adobe Robinson just enough to get by. But I feel less good about the Knicks as my finals pick today than I did two weeks ago a month ago. But I got to pick someone and I'm picking the Knicks. Me too. I'm concerned about more than just Kat when it comes to the defense, to be honest. I mean, I don't think their point of attack defense has been good at all. And I think it's a real problem.

Well, they're small, right? They're small. Brunson's small, Colette's small, McBride is small. Those guys all fight to varying degrees, but they're small. Yeah, 100%. And the problem is when you have Brunson out there is, along with Kat, obviously, and you kind of have those two weak points defensively. I mean, your offense is going to be ridiculous.

But Bridges has had to spend a lot of time as a point of attack defender, and he's been great off the ball this year. I think he's regressed a little bit throughout the season as a point of attack. guy guarding so like his screen navigation has kind of regressed to where it was at last year in terms of the physicality on those on those sorts of plays. Zach, you want to hear a crazy stat? Sure. I love crazy stats. There are two teams in the NBA. So normally, defensively, when you scheme things out, you're going to be like, okay, you got to pick one. You either want to take away shots at the rim or you want to take away threes. It's pretty damn rare

you're going to take away both. And it's pretty damn rare you are going to give up both. There are two teams in the NBA who are bottom 10 in the league in rim frequency and three point frequency. Can I guess the other one? It's the Knicks and somebody else. I want to guess the other one. I want to take a shot at guessing the other one. So I allow a lot of shots at the rim and I allow a lot of threes. Yeah. My first instinct was Charlotte, but as I recall, their shot location data is pretty good. The execution is not so good. Oh, boy. I'm going to go to the Kings.

I'm just going to default to the Kings. that's probably who I would have guessed too. It's the Pelicans. Okay. Yeah. Bottom of the cynics. Kind of the same thing. That's not a group you want to be in.

The Knicks are giving up tons of threes. They're giving up tons of shots at the rim. And I'm wondering, like, how do they fix that? Because they have to fix that. You can't be bad at both of those things. And part of it is like, okay, Josh Hart, It's been hurt lately. And when Josh Hart plays, the starting lineup's been good out there.

And he is such an unbelievably important glue guy for them in every single way. And he's been shooting well this year, which has just been, he's had a great year. I think probably an even better year than he did last year. He's been awesome for them. And I think he'll be back in a week, two weeks, something like that. It's my read on it. Hope so. Maybe the answer is you play McBride more with the starters because McBride is kind of your best point of attack defender against

smalls, but if that's the case, you're making... At a loose expense, right? Exactly. You're making the starting lineup smaller. If you get rid of, say, heart, your rebounding is getting worse, and that's a huge part of your identity. And on top of that, like, the McBride with the starters lineup has not been amazing for them. And you kind of have to figure that part out. The other part of it is that we keep saying, like, the Knicks have to have Mitchell Robinson at full health. When they have Mitchell Robinson at full health, then, like, they're...

a different animal. When they don't, they're just, they're not the same. Mitchell Robinson hasn't been at full health. I mean, the rebounding is otherworldly. It's, it's going to be per minute. Like, he's pacing to have the best offensive rebounding season of all time. I was looking at it a few days ago, and he's averaging 12 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions, which means he's out rebounding 22 teams. Like, it's, it's in insane the way he's able to shake up a game there. But defensively, he has not, it's not that he's been bad. He has not been bad.

But when Mitchell Robinson's at his best, like what he was in the playoff run last year, he's an all-defense caliber sort of guy. He's a really good pick and roll defender. He's a good rim protector. He's a great anchor. He's got great instincts. Everybody saw that incredible play against Boston in the playoffs last year where he literally guarded all five guys on one possession and then ended it in a block where he took the ball away

from Jalen Brown at the end. Like he's just got talent and instincts just all over the place. And that kind of play has not necessarily been there. He's been in and out of the lineup. They say it's load management. He's been dealing with ankle stuff. Like, they gotta have Mitchell Robinson healthy.

And we haven't seen that yet. We haven't seen like true, just A plus defense, eight plus rebounding, Mitchell Robinson so far this year. And that's a weapon they need. Like the Robinson cat lineups haven't been great.

No, and I haven't. I thought they would be, but they haven't. I did too. I actually liked Mike Brown trying to start it at the beginning of the season, and then credit Mike Brown for being like, you know what, we need Josh Hart. Josh Hart's going to start. Look, someone's got to win the East and we'll see. Maybe there's a sneaky trade they can make, despite their lack of financial flexibility.

I don't know what that would look like. We get Nick's Pistons tonight, Bulls, Celtics, and Hawks Raptors relevant to this discussion. What would be the most hilarious outcome would be, the Pistons beating the Knicks by like 30 on a back to back and Pistons fans being like, see, we should have been number one. The Bulls beating the Celtics and Vooch's going off for 55 points and 20 rebounds. And the Hawks beating the Raptors on the road with Trey Young like blocking a shot from Scotty Barnes at the buzzer to clinch the game if he plays.

And then on Wednesday we get the, the bucks don't play again until Wednesday. I don't think they go at the Warriors. The schedule is about to get pretty hard for the bucks. they've had one of the easiest schedules in the league. They are going to catch a break, though. They have both their Denver games in the next couple of weeks when Yokic is going to be heard. So we'll see what life looks like in the East in a couple of weeks.

Fred Katz of the Athletic must read every time he writes, Cats and Shoot podcast on Patreon, produced by Mets fan, Andrew Claudio. No wonder it's good, despite the host being a Yankees fan. Fred Katz, you're the man. You're the best. Thank you, Zach. All right, that's it for today's Zach. Lowe Show. We'll be back later in the week, probably on Thursday as usual with another episode.

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