The Zach Lowe Show - Eastern Conference Tiers With Michael Pina, and John Jastremski Joins Mets Corner

Episode Date: July 24, 2025

Zach welcomes Michael Pina to talk tiers of the Eastern Conference (1:17). Which teams can plausibly make the NBA Finals? What teams are tanking? And where does everyone else fall in? Along the way they discuss who they disagree on the most, including the Hawks (3:43), Raptors (46:45), and Bucks (53:38), as well as teams they differ on from consensus, like the Celtics (59:57) and Pacers (1:07:13). Lastly, everyone’s favorite summer segment continues—Mets Corner! (1:14:40) This time featuring John Jastremski! Host: Zach Lowe Guests: Michael Pina and John Jastremski Producers: Jesse Aron, Jonathan Frias Get started today at HubSpot.com/AI Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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See official rules at michelope ultra.com slash courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes, and details. This episode is brought to you by Panda Express. Look, it can be hard showing how much you love someone. But if you can't say how you feel, just say, let's get some food. Or, hey, takeouts on me. And if you really love them, pick Panda Express for delicious, authentically cooked American Chinese cuisine, whether it's game night or date night. Nothing says, I love you like orange chicken, honey walnut trim, Kung Pao chicken, and

black pepper sirloin steak. Have you eaten yet? Order now, or is it a Panda Express near you? Coming up on the Zach Lowe show, NBA season, offseason is winding down. We've been talking a lot about the West lately because so much of the news, Dame and Chris Paul and Devin Booker and on LeBron, what's going on with the Lakers, has been focused on the West, even Jonas Fallon Chunas, the mini drama there. West, West, West.

What are the tiers of the West? Kevin Durant plays for the Rockets. Today we're shifting to the junior varsity. The East. Yeah, the East still matters. The East is going to supply, I think, by my math, 50% of the participants in the NBA finals next year. So we're talking East.

We're going to, with Michael Pina go tiers of the East. Who are the real contenders? Who are the tankers? Who's in the middle? Where do we disagree the most? That's going to be fun. And then it's time for Metz Corner, baby four game, win streak back in first place in the NL East.

John Jostremski makes his day. you on Metz Corner. He's going to teach me stuff about baseball. He might yell about Aaron Boone. I'm a little bit worried about his state of mind about the Yankees. We're going to talk about baseball trade deadline. I'm going to ask a ton of stupid questions. We're going to talk about uniforms and all sorts of dumb stuff and my daughter's love for Francisco Lindor. That's coming up on the latest edition of Metz Corner. It's sweeping the nation. All coming up on the Zach Lowe Show. The Zach Lowe show, it's Thursday, July 24th, a month before my birthday, by the way, if anyone wants to get some gifts ready. And we've talked a lot about the Western

Conference. So much news in the Western Conference. Kevin Durant, the Sons, Bradley Beal, Chris Paul, Damian Lillard, on and on. It's time to talk about the East. We're going to do that with my friend Michael Pina. How are you, sir? I'm doing tremendous, Zach. How are you? I'm good. It's time to talk about the JV. You ready? I texted you yesterday. This was a more morose topic than I anticipated, but I'm super excited. Oh, you can't be so morose enough to the least certain conference. Look, the biggest competitive advantage in the NBA being in the Eastern Conference. It was true 30 years ago.

It was true 20 years ago. It was true 10 years ago. It is still true today. So I would do this column every year before the season, tears. I've been doing it for 15 years. I would do it for the whole league. Put the whole league into categories. It was like my version of power rankings.

I kind of like it better than power rankings because it forced me to categorize more broadly where teams are in their sort of spectrum of development and within the league. We're going to do that today for the Eastern Conference. Sorry, Wes, you'll have to wait for another day. So I only gave you one rule. I have, let me see how many tiers I have. I don't even know. I have one, two, three, four, five tiers.

One tier has only one team in it. We will get to that team. I don't know how many you have, but I only gave you one rule. One tier must be called teams who can plausibly win the east. Eastern Conference, teams who could make the NBA finals. I did not give you this sub-rule, but a rule that I gave for myself beneath that rule was it has to be at least three teams. It can't just be Cleveland and New York.

You have to go out on a limb and pick a third team that could plausibly win the East. My first tier has four teams because it's July and I'm going crazy. Okay, here are the teams. Are you ready? How many does yours have? My first tier has three teams. so I make the cut. Okay, you followed my rule by accident.

I assume two of them are New York and Cleveland. Correct. Okay. I have the Orlando Magic as a team that could plausibly win the Eastern Conference. You're nodding. You have that team. Yes, I have the Orlando Magic as my third team. I went crazy.

I went crazy. And to nobody's surprise, I have a fourth team. And to nobody's surprise, it is, the Atlanta Hawks are in my could plausibly win the East Territory. Now, let me go. Step back. In a normal season, neither Orlando nor Atlanta would be in this tier. In a normal Eastern Conference season, Orlando's too young, too unproven, has not had a top 20 offense in the NBA since 2012, which is absolutely insane to go that many years with a bottom 10 offense in the NBA.

I have called them the Joe DiMaggio of crappy NBA offenses. And Atlanta is like, it's Atlanta. I can have that much faith in the freaking hawks. I know Quinn Snyder's glasses are cool and Tray Young hits floaters and they did some cool stuff in the offseason. There's still a team of like mismatch. They got a rookie starting. They got some veterans. Who's their backup five of Chris Stops.

Srozygis gets hurt and all of that. But this is not a normal year, Michael Pina. This is not a normal year. The Celtics are gone. The Pacers are gone. The Bucks are iffy. And the Sixers are. the Sixers. And so there's just just void of a proven championship level team. There have been

years in the Eastern Conference where there have only been two teams that you could put in this category. But for most of those years, one of those teams in the last 15, 20 years has had LeBron James on it and been kind of a super team, like a proven lockdown championship contender. That's not the case. The Knicks just made the conference finals for the first time in 25 years. they had bench issues that they kind of addressed. We'll get to that. And they fired their coach. Do we trust the New York Knicks?

Maybe, probably. The Cleveland Cavaliers, oh, good. Congratulations. Another fantastic regular season of lots of wins. Another disappointing postseason flame out, you know, two years ago, two, now three seasons ago, I guess it was the Knicks, bum rushing them out of the playoffs. This season, it was the Pacers on the backs of an incredible comeback in game two.

Boom, 4-1. In between, you forgive the ones, the Celtics because they were underdogs and they were overmatched. But look, like, you can't sit here and tell me, well, no-brainer, Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA finals team. How about you make the conference finals first? So those are my four. Where do you want to start? Well, I'll start by saying that the Atlanta Hawks, including them in that first tier, going back and forth on whether or not I should or, you know, not to spoil or step on anything, but put them in my next tier was the most time I spent on anything in this entire exercise. I applaud you for venturing out on that limb with the Hawks.

I had a few too many questions when I really was kind of burrowing into their roster and just who I could rely upon throughout a long playoff run. But I do love everything that they did during the offseason. I love the three-point shooting that they added that was a clear priority for their new front office. So let's talk about the Hawks. I mean, it's a really fun, fun team. Here's the case for putting the Hawks in this tier. Something wild is going to happen.

It always does. The Pacers just happened. Very few people expected the Pacers, even as they were surging up the East, to come within one game of a championship. I don't think the Hawks have that level of connectivity and toughness in them to do that. But it's just too pat to be like,

well, it's the Knicks and the Cabs and that's it, we can just pencil in the conference finals. That's just, they may well get there, but it's seldom that clean. Something wild is going to happen. Orlando making the conference finals does not strike me as super wild. The Hawks would be wild. You know, they did make the conference finals in 2021, but a lot of people poo-poo that. Let's, here's the case against the Hawks. Is Trey Young a winning player at the highest level?

Debatable. Trey Young is also up for an extension. Are the Hawks just going to? play that one out. I kind of think if you ask me what the most likely outcome is with that right now, I think the Hawks just kind of play that out and let it get to unrestricted free agency. How is he going to react to that? They're starting five barely played together last year. Trey Young, assuming it's Trey Young, Daniels, Risa Shea, Jalen Johnson, who I think is an all-star in waiting and Anyaka, Congo, who made a leap at the end of last season. And it's a weird

mishmash of like, is there enough shooting in there with Daniels, Risa Shee Johnson at the two, three, four. For a real contender or true contender, probably a little short unless one of those three guys makes a leap. Is a congou ready to really anchor a finals level defense? He's a little undersized. I know he made a leap. Blah, blah, blah. Reis-Sachet is a second-year player.

Like, it's just, that's a lot of responsibility on a second-year guy. The bench, where's my health chart over here? The bench, I mean, you know, they upgraded with Conard. It's interesting that they traded DeAndre Hunter primarily to give themselves a financial flexibility to upgrade the back seven of the rotation. And they also then traded everybody they traded for last season. Terrence Mann gone, Nyang, gone, Levert, gone, not re-signed, not traded, but just not resigned. And in their places, Kinnard, Nikiel Alexander Walker, poor Zingis. And after that, it's a little nerve-wracking because am I counting on Mo Gay?

Am I counting on Kobe Buffkin at all? Or is Kinnard, Alexander Walker, a signal that I'm not? Am I counting on A. Nuel? Yes, I can stagger. Trey Young and Jalen Johnson as they were doing at the beginning of last season when they were both healthy so that Jalen Johnson can kind of be point forward when Trey's on the bench. They feel one guy away from actually earning their place in this tier to me, particularly

one front court. They like, they love Mogey. They started their front office people have telling me for a year and a half, keep an eye on this guy. We kind of like them. They started them a lot last year. And it's like, if he just can't shoot at all, I don't quite know what we're doing here.

So they still feel one guy away to me, but they have the ammo to get that guy in trades if they choose to do so. And so in the end, I was like, you know what? They also have the biennual exception and they're under the tax. And they have a trade exception. So they have other things they can still do. So in the end, I was like, let's get crazy. But you couldn't get that crazy, I guess.

For me, the pro plausible argument just centered so much around jail. Alan Johnson, who I love a lot, average 19, 10, and 5, basically before he had the shoulder injury that ended his season. He was a borderline all-star at the time and someone who was starting to look like potentially the best player or most important player on the team. And I love the way he plays. I love how selfless he is. I like how it's this combination of feel and athleticism that can't really be taught. And he fits in so many different lineup constructions. So I just, I love everything about him, but I'm a little weary, you know, looking at a little bit of the numbers and how Atlanta played offensively when Shrey was not on the court with Jaila Johnson. You talked about them staggering, which they did a bunch last year, but the offense was still bad in those minutes.

And I have questions about, you know, Chris Stap's Porzingis. You penciled in, Anyika Kongwa was the starting center. and I think that that's probably how they begin the season, but Chris Stap's Porzingis is better, I guess, when healthy than Oneika Kongwu, I would say. And so I'm just interested in kind of how he fits in, how available is he going to be this season and throughout a playoff run. And I was thinking, like, not to get too granular,

but I guess that's why we're here. In a playoff run where Trey Young has, to be on the court and, you know, teams are running pick and roll with, you know, getting Trey Young and Chris Saps Porzingis engaged. Chris Sperzingis is a very good rim protector, but just having him in a drop with Trey Young trailing a ball handler, it's a lot different for K.P. than the world he's coming from with Drew Holiday and Derek White and Jalen Brown in that role. And I just, it's a lot. It's just, it makes me a little queasy, just kind of thinking about those scenarios in a

playoff setting. And I just think they're too dependent on Trey Young. And I like Trey Young, but I think defensively, I'm just, he makes, he's worrisome. It's still worrisome. So he's one of the worst defenders in basketball. So if he can kind of bring it on that end and maximize his physical limitations, then I'd feel a little bit more comfortable. I just want to see it a little bit more. But I love every move they made in the offseason. And I like how their team looks. And it wouldn't truly shock me if they made the

finals. But I just, I can't, I can't put them in that tier with Orlando, New York, and in Cleveland right now. There's also the issue of who's the backup center if Porzingis gets hurt. Yes. when Porzingas gets hurt. I get your, you know, the concerns on the defense are, I mean, a lot of this is me betting on Trey Young responding to being in a contract year potentially for the whole year the right way, which we started to see signs of last year. I thought he tried harder on defense than he had ever before. I realize that is, you know, not the highest bar to clear, so to speak.

And I've recited this stat many times. it's interesting to me, maybe not to the world, but to me that he set more ball screens last season than in his entire prior career combined. That shows, you know, just baby steps of he's never going to be Steph Curry. No one's ever going to be Steph Curry moving and flitting around here and there. But just be a little more active and a little more varied style. That helps unlock Jalen Johnson,

who can do a lot of stuff in inverted pick and rolls with Trey. I just keep evolving inch by inch by inch that way. And there's something here. But you're right. I mean, there are tons of questions. I didn't mention Vee Krayche, by the other way. You could be another solution to sort of when Trey is on the bench has been solid for them. I get it. I do think they're a guy away, particularly in the front court.

Like the front court rotation of J.L. Johnson. He's like the guy that I'm least worried about on the team. I think he's going to be awesome. I'm a little worried about their collective shooting. Sure, he's part of that. I think he's going to be awesome. And when I say front court, I mean fours and fives. Johnson Akangu, Mo Gay, Porzingis.

They just need one more guy there. Aes Sunua will see what he brings as a rookie. But look, it also could go completely south where they get off to a bad start. Trey's unhappy and they go the other way and try to trade him. So I get why you can't put him in this tier. It's July. I got wild. Let's talk about the Knicks and the Cavs because I don't want to short change them.

Who do you have more faith in right now to make a three, to win three. three playoff series and get to the finals. If you had to pick one, who do you have more faith in? I think I have more faith in, I like the Cavaliers more. And I just, that's the team that I have the fewest questions about. And that was kind of how I was gauging this whole process. Like, how many questions do I have about the team? And for Cleveland, I mean, there is one that is very big and it's existential. It's just how will they respond to, you know, a psychologically damaging playoff exit against the Indiana Pacers in round two. That's a pretty big deal. They basically are bringing back the same team with Lonzo Ball in for Ty Jerome. And I like that

swap. I think that Lonzo Ball, if he's able to stay healthy and can be a little bit more mobile than he showed last season, that he's a perfect fit, pretty much anywhere, but particularly on this Cleveland Cavaliers team that's just so self-love. and three-point shooting heavy and all that sort of stuff. But I think my number one, my number two question is just, is this the year that Evan Mobley becomes the best player on the team? And what would that even look like? Are they going to be able to give him the ball in the fourth quarter with five minutes to go

and say, get us a bucket of a close game? Like, that is kind of the next step of his evolution, I think. And I'm interested to see how he kind of, takes a step forward offensively for this team because I think just him becoming the best player is the Cleveland Cavaliers taking the next step that they need to. They're going to have the most wins in these if they're healthy. They should and will be the number one seed. Darius Garland was injured and a shell of himself in the Indiana series and in the playoffs as a whole.

Didn't even play for a part of the Miami series, which was not even a real series. I mean, that was a freaking walkover. More on the heat later. They are by any reasonable analysis, the correct answer to my question of who you should have the most faith. And I think you actually nailed it as Donovan Mitchell, it's hard, he's awesome.

Like he was a, did he make first team all NBA this year? I think he did. If he didn't, it was close, whatever. It's hard to see him ascending another level, especially in the playoffs where he just balls out every single, time. I mean, every, every playoffs, he's just, even if he misses some shots, he's always ready for the moment. He always steps up. He always steps into the spotlight. Garland,

let's assume better health. To me, Mobley, as you said, is, is the wild card. Because if you talk to people within the team, they think he has, is like 50% of where he could get to offensively as a passer, as a shooter, as a score. And I don't know if you want to frame it as, when he becomes the best player on the team. It was closer last year that I think people thought. Like I had him flirting with that first team all NBA spot for a while before I put him second team. And the infrastructure is just there. They know how to play Kenny Atkins' system. They have a lot of shooting.

Lonzo will help. You're not concerned at all that cryptocurrency mogul Tristan Thompson is not currently on the team. That's not concerning to you. That didn't make my notes. I wrote 21 pages of notes for this pod and that Tristan Thompson's name did not appear, unfortunately. And yet weirdly, Michael, my answer to my own question is the Knicks. And I can't even, I can't even explain why I don't really care that they advanced another round than Cleveland. It's not because of that.

It's not even because they upgraded the bench with Clarkson and Yabuselli. And particularly Yabuselli, I think it could be a valuable piece for them. It's not even because there's like nothing to worry about with the team. Like, is Mitchell Robinson going to stay healthy? He was essential in the playoffs. He wasn't just like this luxury item come in and spot cat 10 minutes. He was like, we can't win without this dude destroying people on the offensive glass and protecting the rim at full throttle, like the speed, the arms, everything.

They fired their coach. And then they called everyone in the league. Just anyone who would answer the phone. Is your coach available? No, okay. Is your coach available? No, it was embarrassing. It was embarrassing.

Sorry. Like Billy Donovan. Let's keep cycling down. Billy Donovan of the play in Bulls. Are you available? No, okay. They can spin it any way they want. My theory, by the way, is that they really thought the Jason kid thing was going to be in play.

And all of the other stuff was window dressing to that. And then it wasn't in play. And then they got Mike Brown. Mike Brown's a good coach. Like Mike Brown. I ask you this. Is he demonstrably superior as a tactician to Tom Thibito? Who, by the way, you know, I don't.

I don't want to relitigate the tips thing. He's Tom Thibito. He's always going to be Tom Thibito for better or worse. He's been always pigeonholed as a defensive coach, even as his offenses for a lot of his career, have been just as good as his defenses. And it's because his offenses, even when they're good, are like completely unsexy offenses. They're like low pass, low turnover, high offensive rebound. I call it the Thibito battering rim.

and it doesn't look great. It can look like the ball is stalling out and it's just Jalen Brunson and four dudes watching Jailen Brunson. Some of that is some of that is probably flawed and predictable and uncreative and minimizing of the other four players on the team and their talent. Some of that is somewhat by design because it's a low risk offense and that's how Tibbs wants to play.

But man, they walked down the Celtics playing that way. They're up 3-1, legit up 3-1. on the Celtics before Tatum gets heard. You can chalk the first two games up to the Celtics choking and shooting just a freaking hail of insane bad judgment threes. And it was part of that. But there's something to how the Knicks played under Tibbs of just walk them down, walk them down.

We got a closer. We're a tenacious defensive team. We don't make a lot of mistakes. There's something to that. And I think if you keep some of that DNA and infuse it with a little bit of freshness, a deeper bench that will actually get used. and a little bit more offensive creativity. I understand, like, is Cat a five?

Is he a four? How do we rejigger the rotation to protect him on defense? He's going to take it? I understand all that. There's something in the DNA of this team that I like and I think translates to the playoffs. I don't know, ma'am. I don't know. Maybe MSG just seduced me.

I don't know. You know, I wrote a column when they fired Tibbs and I didn't really. agree with the move. I didn't think that he was the problem or the reason that they lost in the Eastern Conference finals. By the way, and I've remiss for not saying this in previous podcasts, a guy caricatured as refusing to adjust. And yeah, he didn't play the bench until everyone shouted him to play the bench in Delon Wright and Landry Scha. By the way, they only have 12 players on the team right now. Twelve guys, they have to, they literally, by law, the NBA, have to sign more players. I would keep my eye on Shamit. I would keep my eye on.

on Brogden, who both could be helpful. He did completely scrap their base defense in a way that flummoxed the overwhelming favorite Boston Celtics by switching everything. So please continue on the Tibbs defense because I'm here for it. Yeah, I mean, that was one of the things I was just going to say. One of the primary criticisms is that he was very, he's a stubborn, steadfast basketball genius. But in that series where it was one of the biggest upsets you'll see in the NBA playoffs, Nobody picked the New York Knicks to win that series outside of New York City.

And they're switching everything. And it's pretty successful. I mean, they had the Celtics shot 25 for 100 in the first two games from behind the three-point line. And by the way, they deserved to shoot 25 for 100. I don't care how open they were. Just on the shot judgment alone, they deserved it. They deserved it. Okay.

But congratulations on, congratulations on winning the shot quality championship, Boston. Hang the banner. Banner 19, shot quality championship, 2025. So you're being a little rude, but so they, so I like what Tibbs did there. And I liked how he started to play more players. That was a good decision, I think. Think about what you just said.

The sentence you just said, he started to play more players. And I don't mean this as an insult to you, but like that's a sentence my daughter could say about the NBA. It looks like they're playing more players, Daddy. And I'm like, yeah, those are new players that they're playing. So when I, you know, it's like there were, there was clear discontent on the team with the amount of minutes that some player. I mean, Mikhail Bridges is someone who publicly stated that he was not happy with his role or just the amount of time he was spending on the court. and it's a lot of wear and tear.

And the other thing was that the tips did was he changed the starting lineup. And when everyone was kind of calling for him to do so by starting Mitchell Robinson, who you, you know, I'll second everything you said. He was so good in that series against Boston and throughout the entire postseason. And he's someone who is probably still in Joe Missoula's nightmares, keeping him awake at night because that was a primary, part of Boston's game plan was to make sure that Mitchell Robinson was just limiting his minutes, intentionally fouling him, getting him out of the game as much as they possibly could.

So I liked Tibbs' postseason and didn't think there was anything wrong with him. That said, I do like Mike Brown as well. And Mike Brown should have probably never been fired by the Sacramento Kings. And that organization is in just total disarray. He was one of the reasons that they kind of, you know, were able to, look competent for the first time in this era. And I think that there's some things that he can do that Tibbs did not. And number one for me is I'm interested to see like Jalen Brunson, will he have the ball as much as he did last season? Will McKell Bridge's and O'GN and Obey have

more opportunity to make stuff happen? And, you know, Jailen Brunson led the NBA last year an on-ball percentage by a decent amount. He just, That's how they play. You talked about it. They're boring. They are predictable in what they do. And I think that Mike Brown is someone going from, you know, when he spent time with the Golden State Warriors to Sacramento, he can diversify the offense a little bit.

And you can play through like Carl Anthony Towns from the high post a little bit more. So I think I'm interested to see that aspect. I like their continuity. You also mentioned the three empty roster spots. One guy I would keep an eye on because I would like to get a little bit more depth in the front court is Tray Liles, who I believe is unsigned. I'm not even, I'm not positive about that, but I believe he is and he played for Mike Brown in Sacramento. Thomas Bryan is also unsigned. That's a big who hit a couple threes against the Knicks and the conference finals that ended their season. So I like New York, and that's why they're in this tier for me. And it's going to be interesting to see just how Mike Brown kind of implements his style and makes his imprint now. I like the Trey Liles mentioned because it, you know, retread coaches get a bad name, retread. Like that's a negative connotation. They can work when they land in the right job and the job becomes the sum of all jobs that they've had before, the sum of all their experiences. Everything

they've learned gets poured into the right set of players. And if the Knicks make the finals, this will be the case for Mike Brown. This will be the sum of all jobs. And, everything that he took from the Warriors culture, everything he took from coaching LeBron, everything he learned from the disaster with the Lakers, everything he learned kind of modernizing the King's offense with Fox and Sabonis two-man game, all sort of coalesces in New York. And you mentioned Trey Liles, like, Tray Liles at the Five was a big adjustment in that series against the Warriors. That was kind of a funky move by Mike Brown, and it worked.

I will always remember when he was the interim coach for a bit in Golden State, when Steve Kerr was unable to coach because of his back stuff, the one thing that stood out that Mike Brown did, and I believe it was against the Blazers in the 2019 conference finals, I could be wrong about that, was, no, I don't know, it couldn't have been because KD was hurt. It was sometime in his run. There was a seriously coach where he was just like,

you know what we're going to do? How about we just run the Curry-Dorant pick and roll every single time down the floor? Like, I know, like, this is not how Steve coaches, but I'm the coach now. We're just going to do that over and over. guess what? It was completely unstoppable. And I think about that in relation to the Brunson cat pick and roll, which they did not run enough against the pistons. Like I just, you know, I'm optimistic. Let's do like a word on Orlando. We both no-brainer put Orlando in this tier. Again, in a normal year, they would not be here. They have not proven enough. They have not proven it off offensively.

They traded for Desmond Bain. Great move. Fits like a glove. Still have some questions about the bench. But I like the Tyos Jones edition. I think there's enough. there in terms of like staggering the three best players on the team, Bain Wagner, Bancaro, that particularly in a playoff setting when you're not going to play 10 guys, I think there's going to be enough there on the bench between Black and Tias Jones. And we'll see if the Silva hits and we'll see how much Isaac can give. I like their backup centers when healthy. There is enough there.

Regular season, the offense could still get rickety. There's a big learning curve for everybody involved. But I just think bottom line. they're talented, they're surging, they're young, they're on the rise, and they have a defensive identity that is really hard to play against it. I know it was a 4-1 series. I was impressed by how how hard they played Boston in the first round, despite a bunch of injuries, despite Franz Wagner with the hitch in his jumper. And by the way, if the hitch is still there, they're not going to be in this tier. They need Franz Wagner to actually hit the apex of his game. But again,

it would be premature in a normal year. Something crazy is going to happen. This team is set up to be the something crazy team. I love Desmond Bain. I love just the fit there. I think that that was totally worth the swing with what they gave up to get him. Just one of the best three-point shooters in the league, really capable ball handler.

I like the Tyos Jones signing a lot. This is a team. Everyone talks about the three-point shooting. They've also finished near the bottom of the league in assist-to-turnover ratio for the past three years, and you're bringing in one of the steadiest hands in basketball, just a reliable, low-mistake floor general who can really show up an area of need.

And I think primarily, this is Paulo Bencaro's time to be one of the three best players in the conference. Like, that is totally on the table. And obviously, efficiency is the number one hang up. I think that what we could see is, you know, I think the comp that I've been thinking about is Cade Cunningham, where, you know, people are down on him. He doesn't really have an ideal supporting cast. There's not a lot of spacing, et cetera. Paolo isn't the exact same type of player.

As Cade, he won't run 40 pick and rolls or whatever in a game. But he's going to be in more lineups with space, and he's going to be able to set screens for Desmond Bain and roll into the pocket and make plays. He's going to just a lot of different things that he's going to be able to do. I think his efficiency will tick up. And I think that there's a definite scenario where he is on a lot of MVP ballots at the end of the season.

That was the only note I had for Orlando. It's in big, bold font on my notes over here is defend Bankero. There's a lot of handering about the Bankero max contract, which has the escalators to 30% that Chet Homer didn't get and all that. Also got a player option, which is like suboptimal. I don't love the player option when you get everything, but it is what it is. And I have probably been to a fault defensive of mid to not. non-glamorous market teams, just maxing out young players willy-nilly.

Like, I've probably, the Raptors probably couldn't negotiate it a little harder with Scotty Barnes, Orlando with Franz Wagner. You know, we've seen that in Houston, and I've talked about that a lot, with them negotiating a little harder than these other teams. And Bill was on that last summer about Franz and Scotty, and I defended those teams probably too much. There's probably room for negotiations. And I heard a lot of, like, well, Palo's inefficient, shoots a lot of mid-range jumpers.

like he's not a number one guy how are you paying i'm like a number one guys he ever going to be a number one guy and i'm like look man i don't know what you all are seeing this dude is fucking awesome and i am more than okay paying him a max i don't know if he's going to be you know a first team all nba player at any point he i would actually probably lean toward there's a season in there where he cracks it but i know i watch this dude in the playoffs against the elite defenses with nothing around him. No shooting, no help, almost nothing reliable plus or minus a Franz Wagner game. And a lot of the Franz Wagner games are like 8 of 22. They're not like awesome games where he's being guarded really closely. And he just shows up and shows up and shows up and makes a fair share of

really hard mid-range jump shots. Does he take too many of those? Sure. He's also shown me he's a good passer. He's a good playmaker on the move as a screener. And I think the more talent around him, the more he'll tap into those parts of his game. There'll be three or three. four mid-range shots that are transitioned into better shots for him at the rim, threes, passes, all of that. You don't, give me all the Bancaro stock. Like, that dude is ready for everything. Anyway.

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That's like turning those contested jumpers into clean looks at the rim. Visit HubSpot.com slash AI to learn more. Next tier, are you ready? I sure am. My next tier is called, I just made up a name, best of the rest for the top six. So I've got four teams in my tier one. And so the next most important thing is who avoids the play in. I have three teams in this tier.

Detroit, who I think walks in is the fifth best team of the East on paper, to me anyway. Milwaukee and Miami, who I am unreasonably high on. And so that means in the next tier down, I've got Boston, Toronto, Indiana, a bunch of other teams. We'll get to the Sixers. The Sixers are the team in their own tier. It's just called The Sixers, and it includes the Sixers. But I have Detroit, Miami, Milwaukee. Let me start with Miami.

Because Miami is the team that I am just wildly out of place on compared to Vegas, compared to expectations. They're over under right now is 38 and a half. There are odds to win the Easter like down there with Toronto and all of that. And I understand sort of, you know, why they had a disappointing season. Terrojeer turned into an absolute zero for them. they don't have, I mean, if we ranked to the Eastern Conference, do they have a top 10 player in the conference, let alone the league? I don't know if Tyler Hero or Bam out of bio are in that conversation. And so I get, there was just sort of something desultry about them last year, just dull and like, is this just all there is?

Like, they just, they can't score at an efficient level. There's just no pathway to do it. And I look at their team, and I'm like, I get all that. Let's just say our starting lineup is Davion Mitchell, Tyler Hero, Andrew Wiggins with a year there under his belt or half a year in an offseason. You could go Yovic, Bam, Highsmith, Bam, where, bam, if you want to do the double center thing, which was successful for them last year.

Let's just pencil in Yovic for whatever reason. Could be where, could be anybody. Then I got Norman Powell for free, which adds a completely new dimension to my offense. I've got one of Highsmith and Yovic or whoever coming off the bench with wear. I've still got Hakez and like, You can ride off Hawkes after a disappointing second year. I wouldn't do that.

Like, people do not develop linearly. There's sometimes ups and downs. I'm penciling in and up. You know why? Why not? I like Pella Larson. I like Yakuchunis. What I see there is depth.

I don't see a huge amount of upside. Like, I don't think there's like, oh my God, the heat won 51 games this year. I don't see that. I see depth. I see IQ. I see an elite coach. And I see a world in which that. team depth is very powerful in the regular season coaching is very powerful in the regular season we'll

see how the tyler hero extension talks go if they go anywhere that could get dicey i don't know really how that's going to go he's got two years left on his deal at 31 and 33 million i think oh boy um that could hit the chemistry at some point if it doesn't go well fontecio i didn't even mention fontecchio who i think is like a good eighth seventh ninth guy in the NBA i see depth there and I see a formula where this team, which has an over under of 38 and a half, is 45 and 37 and gets the six seat. Like, I just think they're better than Boston, who we're going to get to. I think they're better than Indiana that has to, not qualitatively better, but I'm putting them in a tier above Boston, who I know you're down on, and I think you're ahead of the curb on that. Indiana, who has to replace two starters, including the guy who defines their entire identity of how they played.

and then, you know, Toronto, whatever, whatever, and Philly, we'll get to there. I just think Miami's going to be better than those teams. And Detroit, I feel like it does, does it need an explanation why Detroit is in this tier? Milwaukee, we can debate. But what do you think about my placement there? Who do we disagree on? Who am I, who should be in this tier that isn't who's in this tier that shouldn't be in this tier? Sure.

I mean, let's start with Miami. I'm totally in agreement with you about the Miami Heat. I rank all these. Oh, man, I thought you were going to be like I'm totally. out on the heat. They stink. They can't score. They're going to be the 25th best offense in the NBA, which they might be, I don't know. No, I, you know, I ranked all these teams one through 15 and then put them into tears. And I actually had the Miami Heat number six. And for me, I'm betting on, I won't use the C word. I'm betting on infrastructure and much less choppy waters in a post-Jimby

Butler universe. The Seward's scared to be a little bit. I assume you mean culture. That is the C word. That is the C word. Yeah, I did not think about that before I said it out loud. There's just, there are fewer distractions. There is no drama. This season is all about basketball for an organization that is about basketball. I think that Eric Spolstra is never one coach of the year famously. This is the type of season where that could totally be in the cards for him. I am betting on BAMETA bio to bounce. back from his worst offensive, not worst offensive season, but just like least efficient,

most disappointing offensive season. It wasn't great. It wasn't great. It wasn't good. It was not good enough. The migration in his shot chart, you know, he started to take threes. He dipped significantly in shots at the rim, a career low 27% of his shots were at the rim. Three years ago, that was 50%. I think, you know, I think that the water will rise a little bit to the level there with him. and he was still really good defensively and the team was still really good defensively when he was on the court. Rebound well, get back in transition. That's Miami Heat Basketball.

I love Norm Powell. And it wouldn't shock me either if he was in the starting lineup. I don't know if that's something. Could be. Absolutely could be. He's just so awesome. And he had such a good year. He just fits culturally with that. I used the C word there.

He just fits as a hard worker who's no nonsense with what they're all about. he's one of the best shooters alive. And he proved that last season and he could have been an all-star. And was just this like, he was so critical for the Los Angeles Clippers last year when they did not have Kauai Leonard to start the season. And he was, you know, they had a lot of offensive question marks. And him showing up pretty much every night and really scoring at all three levels in a way that he hasn't before.

Not a playmaker. He's not like, I think offensively he's comparable and certain. certain ways to Tyler Hero and there's a little bit of overlap there. He's not the playmaker at all that Tyler Hero is. That's not really his game. But he's willing to sacrifice. He's willing to, his game can scale up a level. And I just thought that that was like the type of move that can save, that just like saved their off season and allowed them to tread water a little bit. So I think that they're, I agree with you, they're not, the ceiling is not, you know, we're going to make a run to the finals like we did in 2023. That's not what this is. But it is we are going to get back to

we are a competent basketball team. We will not lose by 50 points in a playoff game. And yeah, I just I like what they're about it. I like their depth as you mentioned too. Three quick notes. Maybe four. I understand Davian Mitchell like turned into a meteor shower in the play end and he's not going to shoot that way all the time. I still like. the idea of starting the season with him and the starting five for his defense and his ability to play off the ball while hero handles the ball but if norm ends up starting that's fine with me number two uh the basketball guys would award the heat minimum one more regular season win if they ditch the stupid court that says hardest meanest hardest hardest working whatever

stupid stuff is written on the court that's worth a win just i'm telling you right now it's worth a win i don't pat riley may like the court it's worth one win to get rid of it forever and we never have to see it again number three i'm going all in on this, but I mentioned it on last week's podcast and Bill kind of had not listened to that podcast and brought it up preemptively yesterday with me. I don't think this is going to happen. Okay, let's be clear about that. I'm not reporting anything. I am just saying that there is a theoretical LeBron Drames trade to Miami that kind of makes sense for both teams. You can go back and listen to my podcast last week. I think it was with Dan Wojke, where I'm

talked about that. I think there's just you can build a deal that actually makes sense. And I only mention that again because the heat were never in that first wave of teams that came to the forefront when LeBron's, when Rich Paul released that statement about that was very not even cryptic, that evinced a little unhappiness with the Lakers, I think. Can I ask you a quick question about that, Jack? If LeBron James, I would love to hear who goes to the Lakers in this hypothetical, but if LeBron James is on the Miami Heat, are they in the first tier? I think you've got to take a look at it.

If I'm sitting here saying the hawks are in the first tier, then yeah, LeBron plus hero plus bam plus anything left on the bench, I think you got to consider it in the first tier. But again, this is all fanciful. They just weren't. It was like Cleveland, Dallas, Golden State, New York, this and that. I'm like, well, Miami actually kind of makes sense. Yeah.

Okay. Enough, enough heat. Hashtag heat culture. Detroit, any notes on Detroit being here? they are they were number my fifth team okay we don't we can put them aside i did a Detroit deep dive last week loved the pistons off didn't love like the pistons off season much more than bill we debated it yesterday the pistons are going to be fun um any Milwaukee is my is my third team here so that's seven i'm up to seven now so one of these teams is going to be in the play

and i can't they can't all fit in the top six look Milwaukee actually kind of kind of liked their roster a little bit more than I thought I would when I actually just went down and looked at it. Kuzma can't be worse. It's just, it's not even possible for him to be worse. I think you can carve out like enough, enough guard play between Trent, A.J. Green, Hollins, Porter Jr. We'll see if they get anything from Jackson Jr. again, whatever. The Yonis Miles Turner fit works. We've seen a version of it already with Brooke Lopez. I think if you have to, you can play Janus, Portis, and Turner together. They haven't loved to play that way under Doc with the super big threesome, but you might have to. I thought Sims was a decent backup five for them when he was

healthy. He's back. Hollins is all right. You know, Torin Prince is still around, right? Cole Anthony, I thought getting him for free. I'm not sure I'd like penciling him and do a starting job, but I think you'll help their bench. And it's the kind of just juice on offense that they need. Juice is a good word because the juice is not going to be worth the squeeze of waving and stretching Damian Lillard and just digging the hole even deeper to the point that you thought you'd thought you'd hit the earth's crust and then you chipped away at the crust and dug even deeper.

But I do think as long as Janus gets you 70 games, this is a 45 to 48 to 49 on the high end win team. and that's good enough to be in this tier. It might be good enough for the fourth seed in the east. If Janus misses any significant amount of time, they're obviously toast. But he's that good. And I think there's just, obviously,

they need more perimeter ball hand and they need more perimeter playmaking, all that. We all know that. But I think this team's like kind of just solid. Where would you have them? You're pessimistic. Okay. Can we backtrack a little bit.

So I'm going to give you my second and my third tier. Yeah, go just give me the tiers. Yeah. Okay. So my second tier, I called it the People's Champion. That was just the Atlanta Hawks. And that's just, I don't really know exactly why I named it that, but it just felt right.

Third tier. By the way, I'm really bracing for like the Hawks going 30 and 52. Like Trey Young demanding a trade, the whole season going sideways. I'm like, I'm ready for. I'm just emotionally, I'm ready for it. So my third tier is called the middle class with a puncher's chance. And this was the pistons, the heat, the Sixers, and the Toronto Raptors. My fourth tier is play and bound.

And here is where I have the Milwaukee Bucks and the Chicago Bulls. So let me just be clear. You have the Raptors ahead of the bucks. I do. I do. And who else? Sixers. Heat pistons.

Okay. So heat pistons I can get with. They're all equivalent to Milwaukee. The Raptors, look, I get why you're high on the Raptors. Okay. I get it. And I have in, in my playings, tier, I have Toronto and in parentheses, should I move them up as a note to myself. I get it.

Starting five, a lot of talent in the starting five, not a lot of fit, but a lot of talent. Two seasons ago, the quartet, the much-balli-hooed quartet of quickly, R.J. Barrett, Scotty Barnes, and Jacob Pertle, they were plus 65 in 234 minutes two seasons ago, the 23, 24 season. they were minus 29 in 140 minutes last year. The difference is two seasons ago they were surrounded by a legit two guard in Gary Trent Jr. And last season it was just sort of a morass of whoever was out there. And I get that you can pick any two. I don't know how you would stagger.

I don't even know what the ideal staggering methodology is of quickly Barrett, Ingram, Barnes. And Ingram's a clear talent upgrade. Whatever you think of his contract extension in his game, he's an infusion. he's an infusion of something talent-wise into the Raptors. I don't know who should play with who of those four guys, but you can keep two of them on the floor, which minimizes the fact that your bench is just sort of a group of complete wild cards, including Colin Murray Boyles and a bunch of shooting guards who may make it, may not make it.

I'm still optimistic about Grady Dick. I don't know what to make of Jacobi Walker. I don't know what to make of Ochaik Baji. I get the optimism. I just, I think there are. just so many questions about fit, style, coaching, bench that Janus alone to me puts Milwaukee above Toronto, but make your respective cases for the Raptors and against the Bucks. Yeah, I think that, first of all, for like an exercise like this, the perception of the Toronto

Raptors, so much has been talked about with how much this team costs and them having the ninth highest payroll in the league and spending more money than the Nuggets or the Thunder on their basketball teams. And this isn't about that. I don't care. Like this is not exactly. Not about that. We're disentangling that. It's also about a little bit the fact that they won 30 wins last season. And they had 30 wins last season and they have not won a playoff series since the bubble. So it's just a lot of bad things happening with the Toronto Raptors of late. I'm, I'm, higher, I think, generally on Scotty Barnes with more talent around him than a lot of people. I'm higher, I think, than just about everyone who watches NBA basketball on Brandon Ingram

than pretty much everyone. And I understand why people are down on him and have been down basically since the Team USA World Cup FIBA situation where they finished fourth and he was just a total no-show. And it was disastrous. Which is what made all the, like, which is what made all the fake trades to Golden State so funny. It's like, hey, Steve Kerr lived this one and it didn't go great. I think he is just a very good basketball player all around. And I would not, like, have necessarily paid him under $20 million over the next three years. I also think that under 25% of the cap, which will be in the last two years of that deal and the last year's

a player option, is like perfectly serviceable and fine. I think, I think he's a top-not shot creator. He's someone who has shown in the past an ability and in a willingness to hit threes, hit spot-up threes. He can finish at the basket. I love that you're talking yourself into Ingram is going to go back to shooting eight threes a game now. I love it.

I can't wait for the first game where it's like, oh, pump fake, one dribble in, jab step. I can't wait. I could absolutely be like naive talking about this. And I understand also all the questions that people have about three-point shooting. and they were not a good three-point shooting team last season. I also like the steps and the strides that R.J. Barrett made as a playmaker last year and the ways that they utilized him, and I think that you can still do that this season, and I think he will shoot the ball better.

He's a better shooter than he showed last year. Quickly is really important here and missed 49 games last year, and like 10 of them were for rest, which led the league. Are you sure RJ Barrett's going to shoot it better than he did last year? 35% on threes, 52% on twos. Career, 34.5% on threes, 48% on twos. I am confident that he will get some of the best looks of his career next year

with Brandon Ingram and Scotty Barnes on the court. I feel like those are willing, really smart passers. And I think that spotting up or coming off motion, I think he can be a pretty good outside shooter. and as someone, at least, at least he's someone, to me it's like, yeah, the three-point percentage will be what it is, but do you have gravity? And I think that people will not want to leave R.J. Barrett alone, wide open. So we'll see.

Again, I could be totally wrong about the Toronto Raptors. I get that there's a lot of questions on the bench. I am higher on Agbaji and Grady Dick, I think, and Grady Dick in particular is like someone who can do stuff with the ball. beyond being a spot-up shooter. I'm excited to see how that kind of plays out. But I just, I like Brandon Ingram. And I like, I think that this team has like more real NBA players on it than than Milwaukee books.

But we can now transition to the books if you want. But I, you know, here's my thing with the Raptors. Okay. They're over under's 37 and a half on Fendl. I'm looking at it now. You know, I was thinking about this team because I read your column this week on the ringer, I was like, he's going to be higher on the Raptors than me. I know.

And I don't mind, like, I think 37 and a half sounds right to me. Like, I don't think this is like some poop team that's going to be bad. I just look at their roster and I look at their statistical profile and I asked this question. I framed it to myself like this. What are they going to be good at? Like, what, what, are they going to be an elite defensive team? Are they going to be an elite offensive team? And I could see them getting to the end of the season with like the 16th best offense.

I actually say like the 19th. best offense and the 14th best defense. And to me, that equates to like, I just, I have a hard time seeing a strongly above 500 team out of this group. Like, 41 and 41 is reasonable to me. I might take the over on 37 and a half, but I can't put them in like a 45, 48 win tier, which to me get, you've got to get to be in my next tier. Now, you're going to tell me why you can't put Milwaukee there. So the floor is yours. Man, the Milwaukee. books. I guess I'll start with some nice things. They have Janus at Dendacupo. No, we don't go right to the mean things. Just go right to the nice things. I settled. Unless you

have a nice thing that I didn't say, go right to the mean stuff. No, I think like they led the NBA and three point percentage last year. And they brought a lot of those shooters back. Gary Trent Jr., Tori and Prince. They have A.J. Green. Surrounding Janus with three point shooting. Smart. That's what you should be doing. That's great. I think that this is just like, a total shit show when Janus is on the bench. Like, where is anything happening offensively? Bobby Portis on the low block, baby, let's go. Cole Anthony, Bobby Portis, can't carve up benches for like six minutes?

You know, I like the Cole Anthony signing. That's fine. But, like, they lost Damien Lillard. And Damien Lillard averaged, like, he was average 26 per game. He's launching nine threes. He's Damian Lillard. He made an all-star. He was an all-star last year.

I don't think they've come close to replacing that production. And when Janice was on the bench and Dame was on the floor last year, their offense was just like about league average. So I think that there's going to be like a cliff that they fall off of. I would have, I would feel way more comfortable about this team if they brought in a steadier hand like, like Chris Paul or Marcus Smart or like, like, I just. So first time Marcus Smart and Steady have been used in the same sentence in like eight years.

Completely fair. But you know what? Like Kevin Porter Jr., I know that he shot the crap out of the ball in Milwaukee last season. I think he's just one of the worst decision makers in basketball. When he was in Los Angeles before they traded for him, he was just an absolute mess. And this is just not someone who I fundamentally would love to shepherd offense through a season of Janus' prime. and, you know, the Kyle Kuzma can't be worse argument doesn't really do it for me. I'm sorry. Like, I just, I don't think he's a winning.

He's been a winning player for some time now. So I just, I don't think that there's a lot of, like, NBA, like, not NBA talent. They're talented pieces. I just, I'm looking around at the rest of the conference and, like, I think you need depth. I think you need, like, some ability to, have to dive. diversify what you do on a nightly basis, and they just, like, don't have it. And it's all fair. Like, and again, I'm sliding them in at like 6, 7.

And I realized that, I mean, first of all, Milwaukee, that's, their fans are probably like, that's optimistic. I'm like, you know, 6, 7 is like, whatever. And obviously there's a massive downside. Like, if Janus gets injured for any stretch of time, or if they start. Oh, it's over. Yeah. Or if they start 10 and 18.

And Janus decides, you know, this. this isn't working. Like, like, that's, obviously it's over for the team at that point, too. So there's a, there are downsides here. Okay, can I go to my next tier? Because this, so I have, New York, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta, and then Miami, Detroit, Milwaukee. I have the Sixers in their own tier. Because we all, I don't think we need to belabor this. Like, they're just impossible to project. They still haven't resigned Grimes. I think they will. And there's something. My only rule with the Sixers was I cannot put them in my plausibly make the finals category because to me it is now implausible that I could ever see this team with Joel M. Bid and Paul George, who mysteriously at some point had surgery again, like actually coming together in winning three playoff series even in the Leastern Conference feels just implausible to me at this point. So I just put them in their own category.

Could they get fourth in the regular season? Sure. Could they win around? Absolutely. could they go to could they be 11th absolutely so they're just in their own where did you have them seventh right above in like the what's the name of this tier that i got here uh the middle class with a puncher's chance and i like yeah it's like can joel and bade stay healthy can no no i'll tell you he can't like yeah like so i don't i mean that doesn't mean he's not going to be healthy at

some point in the playoffs, but to the idea that they can win three playoff series to me has crossed the Rubicon from, hey, maybe if everything goes right to implausible. My second from the bot, can we just do the bottom tier and just get it over with? My bottom tier has three teams. Is your bottom tier of three teams? Yes, yes, yes, it is. Okay. Washington, Brooklyn, Charlotte.

Yes. Charlotte's the most interesting of those. I will do, we can do those teams another day. I don't think that there's really, you know, any. Charlotte would have some, like, could they get to 37 wins kind of upside if they had any center that I would like to give NBA minutes to with apologies to Musa Diabate who hustles and gets lots of rebounds and is good in a bit role. And any roadmap that I could see anywhere to not being one of the eight worst defenses in the NBA. I just see no pathway for them to be a competent defense at all. And I think they are still looking at the long lens.

Washington and Brooklyn, we know what they're doing. Washington has a nice collection of players. Brooklyn has a collection of players. Done. That brings me to my play-in group, which again is below Miami, Milwaukee, Detroit. I guess in theory below the Sixers, because I have the Sixers in some mysterious floating purgatory tier. This last group is Indiana, Boston, Toronto, and Chicago. Toronto, we have addressed.

Chicago, I don't even think we need to address. Like they're just here. Congratulations. You have made the same tier. There is an upside where they punch up and win 45 games. There's a downside where they fall apart with all their nondescript wing players and win 36 games or 34 games. I just don't see any other place to put them other than in this tier. Boston and Indiana to me are the interesting pivot points in talking to people.

I am more pessimistic about both than most people that I talk to. I think, let me look at the Celtics over under, is 43.5. So Vegas is starting to catch up with what I see in the Celtics roster. Indiana is 38 and a half. So Vegas is really caught up with Indiana. I'm down on both of those teams. Let's start with the Celtics. I just don't think people other than you because you kind of wrote this have actually

looked at the Celtics roster and seen who's on the team. So they lost from their rotation. Jason Tatum to injury, Drew Holiday, Christopps Porzingis, presumably Al Horford and Luke Cornynett. And in return for all that, basically got Anthony Simons and a bunch of minimum level free agents that no one's ever heard of. Is Amfordy Simons being on the team when the season starts? I don't know. It seems like maybe.

So let's just pencil in this starting five. Derek White, awesome. Everybody loves Derek White. There should be a blog called Everybody Loves Derek White. Are there still blogs even? I don't think are blogs even a thing. Anthony Simons, just because. Jalen Brown, awesome.

Great player. All-N-Ba-level player. All-Star. Is he ready for this without Jason Tatum full-time? I think he probably is. I don't know how the efficiency and the playmaking is going to look, but it's something. Like, it might be ugly in games, you know?

And then I just penciled in like George Nying and Xavier Tillman, because I don't know what else to do. And off the bench, I've still got Peyton Pritchard. And it's like, Sam Houser's here, Gonzalez, Shireman, Kada, Garza, my not. Like, it's just a, like, Missoula will find a way to make the most out of these guys. But the depth chart after literally like white, brown, Pritchard, and whatever you think of Simons, crumbles to sand so fast.

and being that top heavy and that dependent on guys with minimal to no NBA track records is a recipe for a wildly below expectations regular season. I don't really see a case for Celtics optimism. I just don't see it. And so that's why they're in this tier. I have them in a tier with the Indiana Pacers that I called a gap year from hell. I think that the Boston Celtics are just, I mean, fundamentally they should be motivated to lose games and develop players that's what they should be

trying to do they should not be trying to win and throw miles on derrick white's body on jalen brown's body i look at the roster the front court is completely non-existent i i have no idea what it's really hard to believe when you look at it and it's just like whoa it is they signed nobody No, and it's a actions over words. Are you like seriously trying to win games with like who is their starting center? I don't know. I don't even know. I only know two guys that are starting for sure.

Like if you told me they decide to bring Simons off the bench or Simons isn't even on the team, I'd be like, okay, sure, whatever. Flip the Pritchard Simons back like white, brown and then who the hell knows? I just don't think. I think people have internalized who they lost and why they lost them apron-wise. and that Tatum's hurt. I just don't think like people have actually looked at the roster. And it's like, it's, it's very, very shallow.

It's very shallow and also could get worse. I mean, like, they are $20 million about over the tax. And they have every reason to get under the tax and will, I would, I would bet that they will. and so, like, who, like, who does that mean leaving the team? It's, like, Simons probably. You have, we'll see about Hauser and Yang and, um, it's just, it's just going to get worse before it gets better, for sure. But, like, adding the, the Nyang. Like, J.D. Davidson, like, he's nice.

He'll be getting minutes. He'll be getting minutes. He'll be playing. Like, he's got, he's interesting. Jordan Walsh is interesting. Like, these guys might be playing, like, 20s. 25 minutes a game. Like, what do we, like, I just don't, I don't, I'm not saying they're going to be like a 25 win team.

I'm saying like top six is I can't get there. 43 and a half, I would take the under probably on that. Like I just don't see a big, like white and brown are awesome. And I think that's the cases that both of those guys at full health for 80 games are two. And this is going to sound like a little crazy for Derek White, two like borderline. line third team all NBA players. Like that's how good Derek White is. He'll never make an all NBA team because he doesn't score enough.

But that's how good he is impact wise. And Jalen Brown has made all NBA before. Can I just say, though, about those two? Like, you're removing Jason Tatum from the equation. It's a whole different world now. Like, they're playmaking responsibilities. Their scoring responsibilities completely change. You're also removing a lot of shooting at the four and the five.

I mean, Niyang can shoot. But like the five out thing is, unless Garza is playing 25 minutes a game at at center is going to be very hard to replicate. And if Garza is playing 25 minutes a game at center, I'm not sure how you're getting stops. Exactly. I think that you can still lead the league in three point rate. And they've signed guys who will shoot threes. That's cool. But all of them are bad defenders. Going from Drew Holiday to Anthony Simons is a massive shock to the system for your defense. And so I think that let alone like removing Jason Tatum, who is so good at so many different things. He's a superstar who scores and makes plays for others, but he also just

does so many little things. He's an excellent rebound. He's one of the best rebounders on the team. He can guard all five positions. He will set ball screens. He's the initiator of their offense. He's the skeleton key. So just like removing him from all the different lineups that he was able to fit in will just dramatically just damage them. And to speak nothing. of Horford, Cornett, Porzingis, Holiday. These are really good basketball players, and they are no longer on the team. So, yeah, I think that my top point is that they have every incentive to shed more salary. They have every incentive to lose and try to get some, like, magic luck in the lottery.

And that's kind of what this season should be all about for the Boston Celtics, I think. Yeah, there is a world. Now, clearly, as long as white and brown and Pritchard, you know, with Missoula, they're going to try to compete, right? Yeah. I think that's the mandate from Brad Stevens. Like, there's no interest in like a tank year. But, like, there have been teams where they go in with the best of intentions and the season goes sideways on them often due to injuries. And then they change course.

There's a, there's a universe in which that happens to the Celtics. The Pacers, this is going to putting them here below Milwaukee, Miami, Detroit. and in this like, sorry you're a playing team tier, is going to feel disrespectful for a team that just made the finals and just not only made the finals, but just lit the whole sports world on fire. Like a legit, inspirational, magical run. The reason we watch sports is for things like the Pacers

clicking into something so much greater than some of their parts. Two of the main parts are gone. And I just, and one, like, I don't even know what they are without. Halliburton. Like, they'll do, they'll press, they'll play hard on defense. Nemhart and Siakum will scale up offensively. Nemhart will become the primary initiator. Seacom will become the number one option.

Their pick and roll will be interesting. I just just don't fundamentally know what the team looks like now without Halliburton. And you project out there starting five. We know three of them for sure. Nemhart, Neesmith, Seacom. Who's the other guard is almost more interesting to me than who's the, who's the replacement for Miles Turner?

because we know it's either going to be Jay Huff or Isaiah Jackson. We'll see what Wiseman can give them, if anything. The other guard is like, do you go McConnell to get another point guard on there? I don't think so. I like McConnell coming off the bench. Do you go Shepard to just go sort of 3-D shooting? I'm not sure there's enough playmaking on the floor in that scenario. I could see it.

Do you go Jaris Walker for a bigger version of the same player? That feels like a big promotion. Do you go Matherin by default because he's the best. combination of scoring, sometimes three-point shooting, size, whatever. I have Mathurin penciled in as the fifth starter there with, let's just say, Huff. And then off the bench, I've got McConnell, Shepard, Walker, topping, whoever the backup center is, and you can go see Akam, Topin. Like, they still have depth.

Like, there's depth here of good, okay to good NBA players, guys who were just playing in the finals and in McConnell's place playing, playing. really well. Walker's got something. He fell out of the rotation due to injury. He was on the fringes, then he got injured for the finals. I just don't know what the roadmap here is to the kind of offense. And even without Turner was not a great defender anymore, but like who's holding down the center position on defense? Like I just don't, 38 and a half as an over under actually feels kind of dead on to me. I thought Vegas was going to be more optimistic about them. It's just hard for me to see this team being like a no-brainer top six team. And if you told me they scuffled

to like 35 and 47, I wouldn't be shocked. Yeah, I mean, the first sentence of my notes was this might be a little disrespectful. But I just think that- And Furfee, I forgot Furfee. Furfee will get chances this year. Dunk of the Summer League, I think. Oh, my God. Yeah. I think when you remove Halliburton from the equation, like, you know, obviously maintaining the style of play that made them so special is just unrealistic and there's going to be a stylistic downshift that just takes so much of what made Indiana incredible off the table. And I think like if I was trying to be optimistic, I would say that their defense could could spike a little bit and be more competent and harder to penetrate from an offensive perspective. But losing Miles Turner, it's like those two starters

is just such a double whammy for them at critical positions and in critical roles. So I just, I have so much respect for so many of the players here. I think it's one of the best coaching staffs in the league. But at the end of the day, I kind of, I paired them with the Boston Celtics and called it like the gap year from hell because I also think that when push comes to shove, they will be competitive and they have a lot of, you know, fiery personality. and guys who want to win on the team and they just made the finals. But it is probably in the organization's best interest to not be super good this year.

And trading for their first round pick serendipitously with the New Orleans Pelicans and getting that back allows them to be pretty bad. And I think that that is okay for one season. And then you get Halliburton back and everyone is in the mix. And it's, you know, you try to kumbaya what happened last season. season next year, or two years from now. But yeah, it's like, I don't know how good this team can be without Halliburton and Miles Turner. The guy that I'm almost most interested to see is Mathurin, because there was a time last season, particularly when Neesmith and Nemhart were out and the team

just didn't have an identity. Where you'd hear rumblings of like, he just doesn't fit the way the Pacers play. Like he holds, he stops the ball, holds the ball, not a great passer. I'm looking now. He averaged 1.9 assists in the regular season, 0.9 in the playoffs. Defense up and down, better on ball screens, but up and down. And it was like, are they going to salary dump him? Is that going to be the salary dump to get under the tax? And then in the playoffs, look, the passing is still scattershot, to say the least.

But there were games where he felt like essential to their team, just the burst, the scoring, the physicality. And I'm interested to see can he direct his game more toward, and I said several times, like I actually have grown to like that he plays a little differently than the rest of the Pacers. I think it's a kind of curveball that they need. But I still, like, being a better passer and defender would be good for him and good for the entire team.

Is he going to veer that way? Or is he going to be like, well, now they need me to score. Now I'm averaging. Now I'm going to try and average 20 a game. I just, does he cement himself as a core Halliburton pacer? Or does he just sort of go for points and the team is still kind of undecided? But I think that's interesting. But I think we have them in the right place.

We hit everybody. I think we hit every team. Apologies to the Bulls. We didn't talk about you very much. I already did a deep dive on you. I think we hit everyone, right? We did. We did.

I hope I wasn't too harsh on the Milwaukee Bucks. Their fans, they love me. and I wonder if their opinion will change after hearing this podcast. It's all part of the game. Michael Pino, what else we got going? I'm going on vacation in exactly a week. What am I going to see from you between now and then? And I'll be reading.

I'll be reading abroad. Yeah, you know, hopefully I will be not doing too much, Zach. We'll see. Hopefully my editor is not listening. But I would love to just lay down and read a lot of books. that's how I like to spend my free time with two young kids running around as well so hopefully that's what I get to do

I've got some books lined up for the Euro trip Michael Pina this week was you kind of reviewed the offseason and had some offseason takes I don't know if it was late last week early this week go read that at the ringer.com thank you for your time I will see you on the other side of vacation my friend

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All right, Met's Corner. Let's have some fun. Four game winning streak back and first in the NL East. John Jostremski of New York, New York of SNY, You're going to answer my stupid baseball questions. Are you ready for Mets Corner, baby? Zach, first of all, I am honored to be on the show, number one. Number two, I know I have a very tough act to follow because you've had Sean Fennyson

on the last couple of weeks. We know he is this diehard, disgruntled, in the weeds Met Fan. I am not a Met fan. However, it is a major topic on my podcast. I talk about it on a regular basis. I talk about it all the time when I am on S&Y after these guys. games. So I think you got the right guy for the job. I'm ready to go. We're not going to talk about who you're a fan of. No comment. Well, I have issues with them. We'll save Yankee Corner for another

day, though. I don't want to be bad. Yankee Corner. Forget Yankee Corner. I don't want to be on that corner. I will say one of my good friends here, my daughter's best friend's dad, their whole family is Yankees fans. And they had an older daughter who graduated middle school. And I said, what do you can I get you? She's such a sweet kid. I'll get you a present. What do you want. And I said, who's your favorite Yankee? She's a huge Yankee fan. She loves baseball. She plays softball. She's a huge baseball fan. And she wanted, what Cabrera? What's his first name? Oswaldo Cabrera? That is a very interesting purchase that you had to go and make. And so I bought her an Oswaldo Cabrera t-shirt, you know, the dark blue with whatever his number is on

the back. And I went to the house and I knocked on the door and she was on the top of the staircase. And I threw it to her like it like it was a bag of flaming poop. I was like, I don't want this in my hand anymore. I don't want to see it. Get it out of my head. It was very difficult for me. But she has worn it a lot, so I feel good. See, I was the bigger man. Well, I appreciate you doing that. I just hope you flung the t-shirt the way I used to fling all sorts of newspapers when I delivered the Staten Island advance for a long long, long period of time of my life. I hope you had the proper form, Zach. That's what I wanted to see. And I didn't even take it out of the packaging. I was like, I can't even look at it. I

wanted it out of my hands immediately. Okay, the Mets have won four. straight just swept the angels. They are 59 and 44. They were at one point 45 and 24 with the best record in baseball and then went on a 3 and 13 skid where everything went to shit and all the pitchers were injured. They are 11 and 6 in their last 17 games. So like what is this team? Is this a contender?

Is this a sub, like to my dumb uneducated ass, having watched them now more or less for the full season, not every game, not all of every game, but enough. they feel like a team that's good but like they just have never been like together enough for like a lot of their 45 and 24 when they built up that record was they just like destroyed the Rockies and the White Sox and all these crap teams they have never felt since then like a team where I'm like yeah I have a lot of faith this team can get like to the World Series can win a bunch of playoffs series they're good though like what are they that's baseball in a nutshell in

25 though Zach so I understand that argument you want to tell me me you have problems with the bottom of the met order that has come to life over the last few games. Saving them. They're saving their asses right now. You can make that critique. The pitching kind of out kicked the coverage over the first two months of the year. And I think you were due for the inevitable market correction. I think you saw that in June and into July. But you just got Khoda Sanga back. You just got Sean Minaya back. I like him. I've never seen him before. He strikes out a lot of dudes. We need a guy. who strikes out a lot of dudes.

Last year, he made a tweak in his delivery watching Chris Sale with Atlanta and started getting a lot more funky and a lot more three quarters. And his second half, he was like a different pitcher. He went from being a guy who was pitching like an ERA in high threes to the low fours. Then all of a sudden he's pitching like Whitey Ford and Gidreys circa 1978. I was like, how did the Mets do this with Shawmaniah? But what I'm getting at here is you're getting two major. pieces back into the equation. You're also going to have a GM, who in my opinion, is going to be

very aggressive at this trade deadline, knowing he's got Steve Cohen's wallet, knowing they got a window to win. I think they're going to approach the deadline much differently than they have the last few years. And baseball's mediocre, dude. So, like, yeah, to answer your question, you're a contender. I don't care how many flaws you may have. The Dodgers are not as invincible as everybody's making them out to me. They're going through it right now, right? Big time. They're having a ton of injuries on their starting pitching staff. Their bullpen is no great shakes. And I know they won the World Series. And I know their lineups amazing. And I know they killed the Mets last year. But it's a five-game series. This is, see, Zach, you're coming from,

and I know NBA now has way more parity and way more upheaval and the sport has changed over the last few years. But baseball, every year, come playoff time. That's what you expect. Just got to get in. Exactly. So you may have. your issues with the Mets, get into the tournament, get into the dance, and you're in it to win it. That's the way I see it. Well, but you want to get in with as much leeway for some, like, I don't even know how the playoffs work anymore. I don't want to be like the second wild card. They just be out immediately. So we got to, we first step one is we got to win this

division. That would help, right? Like, I get a big reward for that. That's a big one. I'm going to throw a little wrinkle into that. I understand that point. And I think from like a conservative fan perspective, you'd say, wow, why would I want to play a best of three in the playoffs? The Mets did that last year. Worked out pretty well for them with Milwaukee. And then they took on the team that won the division and they beat them in four games. So I think when this new playoff format came out, my feeling was exactly the same as you. Now I'm kind of the mindset where it's like, yeah, it's high stakes poker.

Yeah, it's a little Russian roulette playing that best of three. But if you win it, all of a sudden the momentum you have is kind of help teams. Texas, Arizona, the Phillies, the Mets. Just saying. Texas, Arizona, by the way, name of a bar I used to frequent in Hoboken, New Jersey. Just some bad times at Texas Arizona. I've been there as well.

I've got him carry out in a body bag. I understand. I understand. Some bad nights in Texas, Arizona. So Manaya's back, Senga's back, and yesterday against the Angels, some slumps got busted. Alonzo hit a home run.

Lindor went two for four. They just need, like, and Soto is still in a slump, But the top of the order seems the Lindor thing got concerning to me. Like, once his average dip below 250, he was hitless and 31 straight at bats. He broke his toe and just like played through it. I was starting to get a little concerned. Should I be concerned?

But then I know some people with dementia like, this happens every year he goes through, he goes through it. But like he was really going through it. So usually Lindor goes through these horrific stretches in April. That's always been his M.O. that he's a notorious slow starter, that it takes him until mid-May when the weather gets warmer to really get going. And this year, he didn't have that terrible start to the year. He actually got off to a very, very nice start. He had a bunch of big hits.

He had a bunch of big home runs. I'm not concerned about him the player. I think he is now in a comfort zone. He's got a zen about him. The my girl thing at City Field, I think it's fantastic. It's the best. You know, I want to make fun of the Mets for. it, but I'm jealous.

Like, it's somebody that's going to Yankee Stadium on Friday. I wish there was a serenade sing-along for somebody on my team. It's the perfect song, too. It's not like a cool song. You're not trying to be cool. It's just like a fun, feel-good, kind of corny song, but everyone loves it. It's a throwback. It's a classic.

How can anybody hit on the temptations? But Lindor, the reason I'd be worried, not the player, the foot, the toe, whatever it is, is it to a point where it's just going to limit him from, being the guy he was last year where he was second in the MVP. He carried the Mets to the postseason. That game 161 he had down in Atlanta, that's one of the biggest hits in a regular season game I've ever seen from a New York Mett. I think that would be my cause for concern.

Alonzo, I have no cause for concern. Alonzo's a beast. Listen, the guy just wakes up, rolls out of bed, hits Dingers, and now has Juan Soto hitting in front of him. So it's kind of changed the sort of pitch. he's getting on a regular basis. He's pitching with runners on. He's getting a hit with runners on base.

I'd be a little bit more concerned. Durability, health, Lindor, than I would be with Alonzo, who's A-OK. Yeah, Alonzo's awesome. He's now, I think, four home runs away from breaking Daryl Strawberry's record. Daryl Strawberry was my favorite player when I was a kid.

I was at Strawberry. I good and in Strawberry were obviously the guys, but there's something about Daryl Strawberry with the elbow up. I just loved Daryl Strawberry. So it's going to be cool when he breaks it. And Soto is just like, Like, I was, I'm educated enough even as just a sports fan that I was never worried about Soto.

Like the guys that good are just that good. He's fine. Lindor, it's so funny. My daughter just has gravitated toward Lindor. She loves him. She's 10. Loves Lindor. We went to one game.

He turned like four double plays. He's got his hair's poofy. He's got the song. She just loves everything about him. To the point, it's so funny to watch games with her because, you know, we'll be watching the game and he'll, Lindor's strikes out again. And he's old for his last 26, whatever. And I'll be sitting there like, man, this guy's really got a hit.

And she'll turn to me, just like, Daddy, don't be mean to him. He's trying. He's trying. Like, don't be mean to him. He's doing his best. And so last night we're watching and he gets that RBI single to put him up to one. And she's like, he busted his slump. He ran in, Mommy, Lindor got out of his slump.

I'm like, I love this little girl so much. She just loves Lindor. And she loves Torenz. And do you know why she loves Torens of all the players to love? Because her favorite teacher ever, her last name is Torn. And so she's like, he's one letter away from Torres. I love Torrens. And so Alvarez comes up and you're going to have to tell me if this Alvarez stuff,

if I should be getting my hopes up that maybe this is a guy. And she's like, well, who's this Alvarez guy? Where's Torrance? And I'm like, well, this guy's like a highly talented prospect. He went to the minors. He'd a million home runs, but he swings at everything and they don't kind of trust them. She's like, well, I guess, I mean, I want him to be good, but I miss Torrance. This is how a 10-year-old consumes baseball?

So is Alvarez? Like, is this guy a guy? What do I need to know? All right, first things first. This is exciting for me as somebody who has a two-month-old daughter. I really hope that I'm going to be able to go through this with her and she's going to be as crazy as your daughter is for watching all the sports and getting into it. This just sounds fantastic.

As far as Alvarez, the guy was the number one prospect in baseball a couple of years ago. And his first year he came up, hit a ton of home runs, Mets were out of it, was one of the bright spots of the 2023 season. Okay. last year really put an effort in honing in and improving his defense. Did a great job of that. His offense suffered. He did not have a great offensive year.

He got hurt. That said, if you go back to the playoff games and your daughter would have liked this because I was calling for Luis Torrance to actually playing some of those playoff games, the pitchers were so adamant, Zach, that they wanted to throw to Alvarez, that they felt comfortable with him, that there was a rapport, there was a rhythm. even though Alvarez was having a crummy offensive postseason, Carlos Mendoza's like, I'm not making any changes with my catcher

because my pitchers are comfortable. Interesting. We're cool with that. We're going to rock with that. Fast forward to this year. Listen, Alvarez was rotten before he got sent down. He was terrible offensively. His defense had regressed.

He was making mental mistakes. And the Mets humbled the kid. I mean, you're the top prospect in all baseball a couple of years ago, and you're getting sent back down at AAA, you can handle that in one or two ways. You can sulk, you can pout, you can be a pain in the butt, or you can go down to Syracuse, work your ass off, do the very best that you can,

and get your butt back to the big leagues and make an impact. Well, hit like 11 home runs at 13 games, whatever it was in Syracuse. It was stupid. I get it. It's triple-way pitching, but the guy was hitting dinger after dinger. He comes back,

hits basically go-ahead on Monday. hits a homer on Tuesday, makes a couple of nice defensive plays. Zach, if he can be a plus catcher for the Mets, forget about top prospect of baseball. If he can be offensively a top half catcher, it completely changes the feel of the lineup because you're not nearly as top-heavy. I think that's one of the big teams with the Mets. You know, they have the big four.

Colin called them the Fab Four. I love you, Steve. It's an awful nickname. They're the Beatles. No, no, no, no. Don't, I'm net fans. Please. Please, do not refer to your four as the fat four.

It's insulting to me. Nimmo is the fourth one. That's what I mean. I love Renco Star. I like, Nimmo is like... Nimmo's a good player. So again, I've checked out for a long time. I'm aware that he's been on the Mets's whole career, vaguely where he's just like rock

solid. He's not spectacular. He's probably never made an all-star team, right? But he's just like, I feel comfortable with a Brandon Nemo at all times. He's a pain in the ass to play against, too, because he sees his zillion pitches, he gets on a ton. He's moved off his center field. That was something.

that a lot of people were concerned about. It's like, oh, there's his offense profile as well at one of the corner spots. And now he's sitting a lot more home runs and hit for more power. He's got a terrific, terrific season. But you need to find answers in your lineup after that four or five spot. And if Alvarez can do that, all of a sudden, maybe you get an average center fielder at the trade deadline and you figure out, okay, is it Beatty, is it Mauricio, is it Viantos at third base? Then, Zach, you're a contender, baby. So speaking of contender, again, I know nothing about anything. Okay, just let me preface it.

Mets 59 and 44. Philly's 58 and 44. Brewer is just won 1,000 games in a row, 61 and 41. Cubs, 60 and 42 have this dude Crow Armstrong that is apparently lighten the world on fire. And you gifted him for Javi Baez. It was a good thing you were out on the Mets at that particular point in your life. Wait, that's our guy? The Mets had Pete Crowe Armstrong.

Oh, my God. traded him for Javier Baez in the summer of 2021. Who's Javier Baez? Well, he was on the Cubs, won a World Series with the Cubs, then played for the Mets for two months, hit a bunch of home runs, but was an absolute ass. He did the whole thumbs down to the crowd. The Julius Randall?

Did the Julius Randall before Julius Randall? It was worse than Julius Randall. A hundred times worse than Julius Randall. Huge story for the Mets. Major blowback. Well, he went to Detroit, signed a huge contract. He was terrible his first two years with Detroit. This year, though, Zach, Javier Bayes and Pete Crowe Armstrong for the respective leagues,

both started in the All-Star game. How about that? And was Pete Crow Armstrong, like, had he played for the big Mets at all? No. But he was touted as like, people knew this dude who's going to be awesome. He was a big prospect, and a lot of people thought he'd be a wizard defensively. I think the surprise has been his offensive game. I don't think people around the Mets or just people in baseball, for that matter,

thought he turned into an offensive player that's like starting an All-Star game. And was that team, 2021, you said? Was that team good enough to justify that kind of like, let's go for it right now? Absolutely not. Did Stearns make that trade? No, he did not. This is great. This is great content for.

This is what I'm here for. I'm here to enlighten. I'm here to inform. You took a hiatus for a few years? Okay, so my point was, Cubs have this great record. Dodgers are the Dodgers, 60 and 43. Padre is always hanging around 55 and 47. Then I look at the AL.

60 and 42 Blue Jays, 60 and 43 Tigers, 60 and 42 Astros. And that's kind of a big drop to your guys at 56 and 46. Is the NL better than the AL? Is the AL deeper than the NL? Is there any demonstrable difference between the two leagues? I look at the records. I'm a little jealous of the American League teams that are like fourth, fifth, six in the American league.

Ah, you should be. I thought going into the year wasn't even close. That's why people asked me, Zach, out of two New York teams, who would be more likely to get to the World Series. And it didn't necessarily mean that roster-wise, I liked the Yankee roster more than the Met roster. But I looked at the NL and at the beginning of the year, I'm like, okay, the Dodgers are going to be a problem.

The Phillies are going to be a problem. I thought the Braves are going to be good. Clearly they're not. They stink. So you can cross them off. But Padres, Cubs improved. The team that's stunning me is the Brewers. I can't believe the Brewers are doing this.

They're a really smart organization. They know how to develop pitching. but the run the differential kind of proves, hey, they got something going. The American League, Detroit is falling on hard times, but I like their team. I like their manager. They got the best pitcher in baseball and school bowl. The Astros, I can't believe they keep doing it. They lose guy after guy.

They lose Bregman. They lose Tucker. They lose Garrett Cole. They lose George Springer. They don't cheat anymore, right? They don't cheat anymore, right? You know what the one time they cheated? I don't even like the cheating excuse because to me that's like.

I just have a friend who's an Astros fan, so I'd just like to make fun of it. You got to give a shit for that. That's fair. I would do the same thing. It bothers me from a Yankees standpoint because to me it's a loser mentality. Like the Yankees lost to the Astros because the Astros were better. Not because they had buzzers. Not because the Yankees, you know, were cheated out of anything.

The Yankees scored, in the 2017 ALCS, I think they scored like two runs in four games down in Houston. That's why you didn't go to the World Series. You lost in four games in 2022. I'm sorry. want to hear about cheating. But to answer your question, the NL is a much deeper week. But I do wonder, specifically with the Dodgers who were supposed to be, hey, this unstoppable, unbeatable wagon of a team that you could just shoe in, pencil in, 110 wins, world series. On and how we go, they're vulnerable. They are absolutely vulnerable. That's the way I'd look at

if I'm a MFF fan. Mets can beat the Dodgers in a playoff series. They're one game behind them right now. Now, the Mets run differential is kind of ho-hum for a team with their record. That worries me a little bit. The bullpen. There's been a lot of – I read Jeff Passon's trade column today on ESPN about – Look at you getting informed. I'm proud of you for this.

Apparently, I looked up Eugenio Suarez. Am I saying his name right? I looked up his stats. He's a third baseman. He has like a thousand home runs. Like that guy is – he leads the NL in home runs, I think. Yeah, he looked nice in the Bronx. They need help.

Yeah, I know. They're talking about him, too. Please. Is this bridge to Diaz, this dire, like, is this the number one need for the Mets? In my opinion, yes. Now, you can make the argument that they're going to get themselves a big reliever in the next two months without making a trade. Because Koi Holmes, the former Yankee, is starting for the first time this year. Opening day starter.

I was like, who the hell is this guy? He's starting an opening day? I looked up his career stats. It was an all-star closer for the Yankees, lost the job last. year. Yankee fans couldn't stand them, myself included, worked his way back into the circle of trust, didn't end up getting that roll back, but he did play a big part of the bullpen in the postseason. I never in a million years started to be able to start games. Like I didn't look at his pitch repertoire and say, oh, this is a guy like Lugo who had five or six pitches and is going

to be able to do this. I was skeptical. The Mets shut me up. He's pitched really well, but he's never started games before in the big leagues. He's now reached an innings point that to me is not sustainable, taking the ball every fifth day. So I think he'll be a part of your bullpen sooner rather than later. If you can go and compliment Clay Holmes going to the bullpen with one or two other arms, and I trust David Sterns to do that. He's the sort of GM that's very resourceful and has a keen eye with pitching. They'll probably, Zach, get one or two relievers that you haven't really heard much about.

I'll be right there with you. You'll be like, hmm, don't know much about this guy. Got to do a little research on this guy. And then you'll see him in August and September, you'll be like, yeah, he's shoving. David Cerns knew exactly what it was doing. So I'd look at the Mets and I'd say pitching help, reliever, starter, either one. Because if you get a starter, then you have more flexibility with guys that you can move to the bullpen. But if there ain't anybody on offense, they need a center fielder.

Tyrone Taylor's offense is just not good enough. And McNeil's played there. So what happens that McNeil can play everywhere, though? They move them all around. I like McNeil. I understand he was polarizing and he's kind of, I had a bounce back year after some disappointing years. But he's played there.

Center field, okay, center field. Yeah, Taylor, just, you can't hit 2.15 with one home run or whatever he's got and be an outfielder, right? I mean, I don't care if you're a center field. You got to hit a little bit. I'll write that with you. And I know his defense is really good.

I know he hit in the playoffs last year. You can't have a five-something OPS and be an everyday player on a championship team. Speaking of hitting the playoffs last year, again, the playoffs is when I got laid off, checked back. I thought like I'm coming in the season like this Viantos guy wow what a playoff is it like what the hell is going on is this guy good like he's starting to hit he's starting to make good contact now he's had some hard hit outs he's had a couple of big hits is this is this a thing can we rely on him or is this like that was a little bit of a fluke so I was the biggest card carrying member of the Swaggy V fan club oh that's what that's what we're calling him Swaggy V is his nickname. That's what they call him in the clubhouse. I can't say I came up with it. That's what I've heard.

He was so awesome last year, Zach. Talk about getting humbled like Alvarez. He thought he was going to be on the opening day roster last year. He's not. They sent him down at AAA. He's pissed off about it. They call him up in May. He gets a bunch of big hits.

He takes the job away from Beatty and is the third baseman. He had one of the most productive offensive seasons on the team. And you can make the argument that in the part, playoffs, he was their best hitter. Like, that's how good Viantos was in 24. I thought it was the beginning of him being a household name in Queens. He's only 20. I'm looking at him. He's only 25. He's a young guy. Young guy. I didn't know if he could cut it defensively at their base. That was a concern I had going into the offseason. But from like an offensive standpoint, I was like, this guy's going to rake. How is he not going to rake? I have been stunned how poorly he has hit the

ball. And I am stunned how pathetic his numbers have been. I need to see more than a couple hard hit balls. I need more of a sustained sample. The problem he's going to run into, Zach all of a sudden his competition now for his job, because Starling Marte is back. Stalling Marte has hit in the DH spot. He's going to get at bats because he can hit a fastball. It can roll out of bed and hit a fastball. And then you have the other young guys at third base where Beatty's played well at home, Maricio's wrong. He's coming off an injury. I don't trust him anymore. I had like a weak love affair with Mauricio.

Every time he comes up, I'm like he's going to be behind O and two, but I'm just going to blink. It's going to be O and two. You're out of Maricio. But he's... I'm not out. I'm just like, I got excited and now I'm like it's... I don't know.

I don't know. I get too excited. I get too excited too fast. I get it. Give him a wiggle room now. This is a guy coming off major, major surgery, who I thought was not going to be a player for them at all this year. So, listen, Viantos would be a great guy to get going.

Because we saw what he did last year. I think he has the highest upside and ceiling out of any of those guys offensively. You can put it there a base. If you can get him being a part of this thing in a big way, much like Alvarez, changes to feel your lineup. All right, I got an important question for you. Oh, boy. Well, Mauricio, okay, let me go back to Mauricio. Again, I know nothing.

He strikes me as undisciplined as a hitter. Fantasy tells me he can't hit lefties at all. So that's already just like, that's over. I just he just again it's like oh and two every single swing in a bad pitch is he undisciplined is like what what does he need to do he is but he's also young raw and experienced player so I think you have to take that for what it is now is that something you can develop over time that's on Ronnie Maricio the problem he's the perfect guy Zach that if the team stunk you'd play him every day you'd say get your seasoning in the big leagues and make those

being a big leaguer. Where the Metserat is a team, they can't do that. Did Soto walk in as like a 20-year-old with this kind of batting? I know his leads to league in walks since he came into the majors, but like did he come in as like just this disciplined? Yes. Think about this for a second. The guy couldn't even legally drink and he's in the World Series

against two Hall of Fame pitchers, Justin Verlander and Garrick Cole for the Astros in 2019. They couldn't get him out. Couldn't get him out. 19 years old, 20 years old, playing in the World Series. And he had this unreal batting eye and this swagger and this confidence. That's why I was so stunned the first two months that he put as poorly as he did. Because I watched him every single game with the Yankees last year.

Zach, from game one to game 162, Juan Soto was the dude. He just like embraced the spotlight the moment, being a Yankee, coming up in big spots, the whole deal. Wasn't the case for the first two months with the Mets. But listen, his June, one of the best months in the history of the franchise. He's gotten a couple of big hits recently, which to me has been kind of a bugaboo for him where, hey, you're Juan Soto. You're going to get those big hits. You're going to have those big moments. And they're starting to come.

And listen, you just know it. It's like you see certain guys where there's the adjustment, like LeBron, not to compare him to LeBron. But, you know, LeBron in Miami where there was the adjustment period, but you knew, hey, he's LeBron. He's going to be fine. Same sort of deal with Soto. I just love every at bat is like he'll take a close pitch and an umpire will call it a strike. And sometimes the umpire, according to the pitch boxing is right and sometimes he's wrong. And Soto just has this dialogue where he'll look at him like, you sure?

Was I wrong? Was I wrong to take that? And it seems like a friendly. And then he'll sometimes just like the dialogue will be over and he'll make this hiss like, okay. Like I kind of don't believe you, but I'm moving on to the next. I just love the theatrics. So he just sees it as this nice dialogue.

dialogue and he's like, because I'm, like, I'm on Soto. Like, are you sure you got that one right? There are certain guys who have like that mastery of the strike zone. Wade Boggs had it for years where it was just like you knew and he knew. It's the same sort of deal. And the theatrics make it an whole other experience with Soto. And, you know, he didn't have the shuffle early in the year, the nodding when he sees a pitch and he kind of acknowledges, all right, this is what you're looking to do. Like, do you bat?

If you want to watch a fun Soto a bat, I don't know if you watched it last year. if you're already all in on NBA coverage. The bad he had in game five of the LCS against the Indiana, Cleveland, the Guardians. Get them to the World Series. I know. I'm the worst with that. It's tough.

It's 40 years of baseball history. We all make mistakes. John Sterling would do it repeatedly during the playoffs, but that's why John Sterling is John Sterling. Oh, boy, you just said two words that just sent a shiver up my spine. Yankees win. Yenks win. You're banned.

That's it. You're never coming back. If you do a Waldman, if you do a Susie Waldman impersonation, it's really all over. I just, just their voices. If I even, if I were at dinner, is Susie Waldman, what is she doing now? She still does the Yankees. If I were at dinner in a restaurant and from four tables behind me, I heard that voice, I would get up and fucking leave. I can't even, I can't even overhear it.

I can't. No, she's great at her job, I'm sure. It's just, I can't, and Sterling, forget it. I can't even, okay, anyway. The hate, I feel like I'm Emperor Palpatine in Star Wars. The hate is flowing through you, Zach. I used to drive around, I used to drive around in my car unnecessarily, like on the way back from a late shift or something, listening to Bob Murphy on the radio calling Metskin.

He was like, Garlo Fonzo. He had to, smoking like 10 cigarettes while he's doing a broadcast, you know. It was just great. I don't know what the hell we were talking about when you said. John Sterling about Soto's at bat, I think. Oh, game five, LCS, watch that at bat. And it just sums up Soto in a nutshell. Like, that's what makes him the hitter that he is.

And don't be surprised if he has a moment like that in a big game against the Phillies and a big game in the playoffs where it's like, yep, that's why he gave him $780 million. Last question, it's very important one for me. I have a blue Piazza batting practice jersey. I have a home pinstripe, traditional home pinstripe, Todd Hundley jersey. Whoa, okay. Bringing it back. And I want a new one.

And I'm like, just curious, there's more jerseys into rotation now. What's your favorite Mets jersey? Not number, not player. Like, is there a jersey? Is the pinstripe one the one I should get? Because I got to tell you, I like the gray road jerseys a lot and how the blue and the orange New York. I like that they say New York, and I like that it really pops off the gray.

Is that a good, like, what's a good jersey? What should I do? I think you nailed it. The road gray Mets jersey is my favorite jersey. It's a beautiful jersey. It's very Mets, New York. I don't like the pinstrap Yankee jersey either, and maybe this is because I'm a messy eater and I go to a ball game.

I'm spilling beer on my jersey. There might be a hot dog stain of mustard. I've had that happen to me in the past, where I'm a little particular with the white. and like the gray Yankee jerseys might go to. That's the one I wear. The beautiful jersey. I have to even... The Don Mattingly, I love it.

I hated Paul O'Neill so much. Oh, you and Simmons. I mean, it is stunning that Simmons allowed me to work here, by the way, with all of the love that I have for the teams that I grew up with. And then, you know, think about you guys. Hey, look. O'Neill and Clemens. Forget it.

Don't even get me started on throwing a bat at Piazza. But first of all, I will concede the Yankees jerseys are beautiful. Well, I like the pinstripe one. for both teams. I think the color scheme works with the kids. You know what jersey bothers me for the Mets? NYC? Yes. Can't stand them. Everyone hates that jersey. It's kind of growing on me. You know what? With the purple, I guess it's all right because I identified it last year with Grimmis. I called them the Grimmis jerseys and they were like good luck for the Mets. The black bring me back to my childhood because I remember when the Mets introduced those, it was the late

90s. It was very like Bobby Valentine, Mike Hampton, you know, like those. teams. So I like that that's kind of back in the fold. But I'm kind of of the mindset, Zach, with sports jerseys. Less is more. I don't like 10 zillion jerseys. A lot of the modern ones stink. Like I'm a Miami Dolphins fan. Their new uniforms make me so ill because their classic throwback dolphin is so baller. It's so amazing. And that should be the uniform all the time. The Mets, to me, it should be the two classic uniforms and then the alternate black. That's it. You don't like blue?

I don't need blue. I like the blue. It's too many, though. It's too many. So I'm going to go gray then. Go gray. Then I have to decide what player. By the way, you mentioned all the Yankees you grew up.

But I'm still, my college roommate was a Padres fan from San Diego. That was a strike. That was a strike to Tino Martinez, the game won in the World Series. And the next pitch went to the upper deck with the beer flying at Yankees Stadium. I want to replay that whole World Series. Was that umpire dead? What happened? It was right over the middle of the plate.

I could be wrong on this. So the listeners can fact check me on this. I am pretty sure the same umpire who blew Jeffrey Mayer in 1996 when the kid reached over the wall and they called it a home run with Jeter. I know. Tony Tarasco. I believe Richie Garcia, who was the umpire down the right field line, was the home point umpire in game one of the World Series.

Is he in prison? No comment. All right. John Stremski. Thank you for your time and indulging me on Metz Corner. I'll have you back. We'll let you talk about the Yankees at some point. Thank you, sir.

Not necessary. Thanks for having me, Zach. Anytime, dude. All right, that's it for today's Zach Lowe's show. Thank you for listening. Thank you to Michael Pina for tearing the east with me. We had some disagreements when we soldier through. We made it through the junior varsity conference.

Thanks to JJ for debuting on Mets Corner and letting me ran about baseball a little bit. I'm getting a little too excited about the Mets. I'm a little worried about myself. We're back barring news on our regular schedule next week, Monday, Thursday, and then it's vacation time, you're up time for me. Thank you for listening to the Zach Loth Show. Thank you for watching. Thank you to Jesse and Jonathan on production.

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