The Zach Lowe Show - Full-Court Speculation: Giannis Trade Rumors Overflow

Episode Date: January 29, 2026

Zach is joined by Howard Beck as Giannis trade rumors kick into overdrive. They discuss the teams that make the most sense and what each team needs to keep in mind. Then, they each share their biggest X factors for the rest of the season. (0:00) Welcome to The Zach Lowe Show! (1:52) Howard Beck joins the show! (7:52) Should the Bucks move Giannis in the next week? (13:05) Which teams are actually trying to trade for him? (21:31) The Heat are the most interesting team. (28:22) Ranking X factors for the rest of the season. (33:39) How would a potential Jayson Tatum return affect the Celtics? (41:31) Will Joel Embiid stay healthy the rest of the year? (52:45) Will Jalen Williams find a return to form? (1:00:46) What does the rest of the season hold for Karl-Anthony Towns? (1:03:12) How will Austin Reaves’s return change the Lakers? (1:04:13) What will a healthy Magic team look like? Host: Zach Lowe Guest: Howard Beck Producers: Mike Wargon, Jonathan Frias, and Billy Gil Social: Keith Fujimoto Check out thousands of cars and the largest online selection of vehicle parts. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit www.rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Look, it can be hard showing how much you love someone. But if you can't say how you feel, just say, let's get some food. Or, hey, takeouts on me. And if you really love them, pick Panda Express for delicious, authentically cooked American Chinese cuisine, whether it's game night or date night. Nothing says, I love you like orange chicken, honey walnut, trim, Kung Tao chicken, and black pepper sirloin steak. Have you eaten yet? Order now, or is it a Panda Express near you? On the Zach Lowe show, Howard Beck is here? What up, Beck. Yanis, did he ask to be traded? Did he hint that he wanted to be traded?

Did he suggest that it was maybe time for a mutual parting of the ways? Is that the same is asking to be traded? Something happened. And the whole league has gone from a ground stop because of waiting on Janus to a ground stop because the Bucks are now listening on Yannis and it's unclear if for when they're going to act or what exactly they want or who's really chasing him. Howard and I get into all of that. Yeah, you're tired of Janus. You know what?

He's at worst, the third best player in the NBA this season and the whole league is talking about it has been stopped for it. So yeah, we're going to talk about. We're going to talk about what questions teams need to answer before they dive all in, what this looks like this season, offseason. One of the Bucks are you going to do anything. And then we're going to table Yannis and move on. We each picked Howard and I, our biggest non-Yannis X-Factors,

swing factors for the second half or last part of the season. Joelle and Bede is prominently involved. The Celtics are prominently involved. Do Orlando Magic still funky? A little funky. They beat Miami last night, but a little funky. I had an Orlando Magic X factor. Who is it?

What is it? Why do I have them as an X factor? And the Thunder. The Thunder have one of my X factors. Interesting. Yeah, the Thunder 14. to nine in our last 23 games. There anything to worry about?

We dive into that question and who my thunder X Factor is, how the West stacks up. And we talk a little bit about that Houston, San Antonio Barnburner last night. That was fun. The West, man. The West, it's different than the East. All right, that's all coming up after this on the Zach Lowe Show. Welcome to the Zach Lowe show live from I think I'm at Bill Simmons House. What's going on?

Howard Beck. How are you? I'm doing great. That's not a fake background. That's not a virtual thing. You are literally in Casa, Shea, Bill. Yes, I am. We did a phenomenal. We recorded a few things last night. And now I'm recording here this morning. I didn't sleep over. We didn't have a sleepover party. And I did not break into his house this morning. We are in the hot zone, Howard. The check your phone every 10 minutes zone. The trade deadline is one week from today. And yesterday, it was reported by Shams Strangia at ESPN. I'm going to read verbatim from the story.

Sources said Janice Atetacumpo has informed the Bucks for months that he believes the moment has come to part ways after 12 plus years together. And so the NBA is officially on high alert. Everything had been ground to a halt awaiting Janus. Everything is kind of still ground to a halt as they see what the, as the Bucks navigate the Janus offer landscape. But I read, I, I, I, I I'm going to, we've done Janus to death. We're just going to do like five big checklist items, okay? But before we do that, has informed the Bucks that he believes the moment has come to part ways. Why are we doing this?

Why can't we just say that he asked for a trade? Even today I'm reading coverage like, well, this is more about the Bucks taking offers and not, you know, Janus, I'm not sure he explicitly has asked for a trade. Why are we doing this? This is so dumb. and why is everyone afraid of an ugly breakup that is never going to be ugly? This dude won a championship in Milwaukee, the first one in 50 years. He's been there a dozen years.

He is living the natural life cycle of 90% of NBA superstars where team rises, team gets old, team does everything possible. Credit John Horst, you can love him, you can hate the moves, you can do whatever. The dude swung hard and swung big for Drew Holiday and Damien Lillard and this Miles Turner, disaster thing that has happened. They tried. The team got old. They didn't hit on draft picks in the 20s because that's your most likely outcome.

And now the team's bad. And this is why I never shut the door on a honest trade in season, despite the fact that we all know offseason is more likely because of the extension variable, which more or less serves as a yes or no, do I want to be in Milwaukee moment because teams like Miami, the Lakers, other teams have more picks that free up to trade in the summer. All of that, I never shut the door because. if the team stinks, it stinks, and they stink. And now Janus is hurt, and here we are. But why are we doing this? Why do we have to do this strangulation of the English language and maneuvering? And then even, even Shams Singh has informed the bucks for months that he believes the moment has come to part ways. Has other people being like, well, I don't know if you ever explicitly asked for what, what are we doing? Why? It's a great question.

You and I lived through the mellow drama back in the day. That was the Carmelo Trade Demand out of Denver, which lasted many, many, many, many months. We survived the Dwight Mayor, the Dwight Howard Saga in Orlando, which had so many bizarre twists and turns. We don't have some fun, clever wordplay nickname for this one yet. The Greek Freak Show, maybe? No, I don't even want to. No. Let's not even do it.

going to tell, but I am going to call it this, Zach, and I'm saying this with, hard to believe this is the number 29 years of time on this beat now covering the NBA. This is the most passive aggressive trade demand slash non-trade demand in modern NBA history or probably all of NBA history. This is a passive aggressive trade demand where I don't want to call it a demand. I don't want to recall a request. I don't even want to say that I want to be traded. I don't want to say anything at all other than I'm really not happy with the way things

are going. might want to be somewhere else, but I don't want to be the bad guy. And look, we all love Janice. He's amazing. He can't be the bad guy. He'll never be the bad guy. He's a hero in Milwaukee forever. How does he not realize this? I had this text exchange with somebody like literally like two months ago, I think, about this whole thing, because we were in whatever version of this cycle we were in. Like, he wants help, but he doesn't want out and what's all with the, with all the, and this is somebody who's very plugged in there and who knows the landscape very well, who was basically just saying, yes, this is what it comes down to. He just, he doesn't want to have to say it.

Yes, he has concluded already that this is not going anywhere good. We, I mean, listen, we've heard how many different versions of Yana saying, I only want to win championships and I only want to be somewhere where I can win championships. And then he starts talking about breakfast food with Sam Amick and simultaneously- That interview and the other press conference after one of the many horrible losses the Bucks had, where he says 17 different things. were like, you know, I mean, I'm never going to ask for a trade, but I could wake up one day and feel differently just like I have breakfast and one day I want scramed. I'm like, I think it might be time to just stop talking. Like, none of this makes any sense. You're reaching like, it's sort of

like gobbledy gook, mad libs nonsense. Like, just stop. If you are a, you know, a hardcore Milwaukee Bucks fan who never wants to see him leave and who does not want to think ill of him, Janice has given you all of the material you need to feel like this is not him. He's not asking out. He's not going to abandon us. But if you were anybody else, media, other NBA personnel who are following all this, it's not even really reading between the lines. It's the actual lines.

And the actual lines are he has been signaling for some time now that this was not heading to a good place. He just does not want to have to say it. Shams, who has strangled the English language a little bit, straight up says he's informed the bucks that the moment has come to part way. What does that mean other than that's for trade? Okay, that done. I don't want to do it anymore.

Okay, big question slash checklist item number one. Should and will the bucks actually trade Janus in the next week? I've been on the phone constantly for the last two or three days about this very subject. And right now, a week out, there is, including among interest, potentially interested teams at least, not a skepticism that they will move him by this deadline, but a their, their, asking for so much as they should, but not even that they're asking for so much. They just are sort of trying to go to us into putting everything on the table. And if they don't get exactly what they want,

blue chip this, draft pick that, they can wait until the summer when all those teams that we mentioned have draft picks that open up, when the extension deadline happens. And he's on a guaranteed deal for next year with a player option for the year after that. So there's no time crunch. And so a week out, you do hear teams a lot of,

I was on the phone with two GMs this morning who said, I don't think they're going to trade them. I don't necessarily agree with that because once the toothpaste is out of the tube to this degree, it's really hard to put back in. There's also a school of thought that because a team that trades for him now, despite his ongoing calf issues, would have access to him for the playoffs this year, that their leverage might be higher now, the bucks,

then it will be in the offseason. I don't know. That one's hard to read because in the off season, not only do some teams get access to picks, not only does the cap picture clear up a little bit because contracts expire, but as I've said repeatedly, one of these teams in the West with tons of trade assets

is going to crap to bed in the playoffs and exit much earlier than they want to and perhaps emerge as a suitor for Yanis. So my checklist question number one is, will they do it now or won't they? I still don't know the answer to that question. I'm not sure it's a sure thing either way. Definitely, if the chances were 90-10 that they hold on to him through the deadline and into the summer three days ago, it's now much less than that.

It's 50, 50, 60, 40, whatever it is. I still think they wait until the off season because there are more bidders available then, because we have the lottery order set by then. We know who has not just one golden ticket, potentially multiple golden tickets, right? because there are multiple players in this draft who are viewed as franchise stars. And so, you know, if you're making this momentous decision that John Horse has tried to avoid making, just as the Portland Trailblazers tried to avoid forever making it with Dame Lillard, when the time finally comes, you better get it right. And I think that means having the maximum number of bidders and options and knowing what all the assets

available are. So I still think it makes more sense. It doesn't mean it won't happen a week from now or within the next week, but I still think it makes more sense after the season. One of the things that people have raised about why the Bucks want to do this sooner than later is, well, to tank this season, you need Janice not on your team. Well, he's already out for however number of weeks that Dr. Onda de Cunbo said he's going to be out for. I don't know that we have confirmation.

I think that he said four to six weeks. From what I've heard, that's largely accurate. He's always had superhuman recovery timelines. but I've heard that they have not offered a timetable, which is also strange that the bucks have not put any timetable out there, but I've heard that's largely accurate. Yeah, NBA, get on your teams about injury reporting rules, please. Janus is going to miss.

And the all-star break is in there too. But Janus is going to miss a bunch of time, even if he's still on the team. So there's that. You can always dick around as all these teams do anyway with like, oh, we're going to slow his recovery or he's not ready yet or whatever or not playing back to back. I think the Wizards have added an injury to Trey Young's list. I think Trey Young now has

a hang nail. He hurt his funny bone. He's got carpal tunnel from playing video games too much. I think they're adding to the injury list. Svima High Luke. Svimu High Luke, I don't know if he fell down the stairs a couple of times at his house in Utah. I just, I don't think it's a necessity for

Janus to be traded for them to tank. But also, their tanking is of course complicated by the fact that the Hawks own the swap between the bucks and the pelicans, right? Now, as of right now, course, it seems very likely the Pelicans are going to have the better pick. But, oh, wait, there's a lottery in this league and it sometimes really scrambles the results. So the Bucks could end up with the higher pick, which then they would lose in any case. But then they would

get the Pelicans pick wherever that falls. But like, there's just too many variables here, which again goes back to what I said. Like, if I'm the Bucks, I would rather know where my draft pick is, where the Pelicans pick is, which of them the Hawks is claiming, and who's got the other top picks in the draft because now I know exactly what I might be trading for in addition to all the things you laid out. It's easier in the summer because of the cap. It's easier in the summer because a lot of teams will regain draft pick, draft capital flexibility once we're past this draft. So I think it's, I still think it's an offseason play. That makes the most sense to me, but we'll see in the next seven days. Okay. Checklist item number two.

too, and this is where it gets interesting. If you're a team that's bidding for Janus, and there are going to be a lot, do you have enough to win the championship this season if you trade for Janus, given what you're going to have to give up to get him? And that's where it gets very interesting, Howard Beck, because the teams that could affirmatively say absolutely to that question and theoretically have the assets to get Janus, the spurs, I don't think they're in it. The Thunder, I don't think they're in it.

The Rockets have privately and publicly set all along. They're not in it. They did that with Durant too, and they were not in it right up until the price dropped to where they could be in it. So I'm not going to disqualify them completely, but they may not be in it. By the way, brief aside,

did you see that Rocket Spurs game last night? I saw like the last quarter of it, yes. And I saw Wemby doing just stupid things, amazing things. That's going to go down as one of the landmark games of the season because, A, the Rockets' crunch time woes on offense rose up again. And it's one of the reasons why I won't disqualify them from a big, big trade. Now, the Bucks would surely want Shengoon or Amman Thompson. And I think the Rockets rightfully are like, we're not quite ready to do something like that yet. And despite all of their draft assets, I'm not sure they can make a deal that appeases the

bucks without one of those two guys. But it was notable to me for that reason and also for the reason that the Rockets very clearly tried to beat the shit out of Wembe Nama. It was an incredibly physical game. They fouled him all the time. Some called, some not called. And Wembe fell over a bunch of times. He got stepped on by Tari Yason. And he was just like, I'm not retaliating.

You know how I'm going to retaliate? I'm going to make you eat shit the entire fourth quarter. You want some lob dunks from Area 51, Stefan Castle. You want some shoplocks in Kevin Durant's face. You want some jumpers rained over your head. I'll bring it all. You hit me. I'm going to smack your ass.

It was like a, that is a game we're going to look back on when the spurs reach the fruition of whatever they're going to be. It's like, that was an awesome moment. There was that possession. I know if you saw it where Castle, who guarded everyone from Shangoon to Durant to Amman Thompson and everyone in between was guarding Durant and bodyed him up and bodyed him up and Durant probably fouled him, but whatever. Durant rose up for a mid-range jumper.

And as he rose up, here comes Wembe. And it was just like he blotted. out time and space and erase Kevin Durant from the universe. It was terrifying. Anyway, those teams could affirmatively say yes with Janus, we could win the title this year. I'm not sure they're in it.

The Knicks, my pick to make the finals, Janus's chosen destination, according to Shams in the offseason, they could affirmatively answer yes, if we get Janus depending on the price we could win the title. I don't know their pathway to a Janus deal. They don't have

picks a trade. They traded them for Mikhail Bridges. It's doable. You flip this guy for picks. You'll flip that guy for picks. Kat gets over here. It's just very, very difficult to do. And that brings us to the other teams who have been mentioned. Toronto, I don't think they could say yes to that question. Maybe they don't care because you do get Janus again for next season, right? And where, like, they're solid. I don't know where they're going. Philadelphia, I don't think is in it. Atlanta, I don't think, is in it. They could definitely not say, yes, we can win the title this year.

They're way below 500. The Timberwolves have been cited as a Janus potential destination. I think there's truth to that. I do, too. Mark Stein reported this morning that Janus is perhaps backchanneled that Anthony Edwards is a teammate he would like. That would not surprise me at all based on what I've heard. That is they don't have picks to trade.

They've traded a lot of their picks for Gobert. They do have Jada McDaniels, who the Bucks would surely covet. I just don't know if I see a pathway to a deal there, but they could. The Warriors, who will try like all hell to get Janus, it can offer four first-round picks, which is really three and a half first-round picks, but first-round picks attached to an aging team. If you unprotect them, those are valuable picks. That has to be Jimmy's contract, despite the fact that I think he and Steph would like to ride it out together,

and the Warriors would like that too. or Draymond's contract plus the young players, plus all those picks. Can that team win the championship this year? I'm not sure that you can affirmatively answer yes to that question, Howard Beck. Any thoughts on these teams before I mentioned a couple more? I agree and I had heard recently too that Minnesota was definitely in the mix here. Despite the, you know, in the mix from a Janus standpoint and from a Minnesota interest standpoint, whether or not they have what it takes to get a deal done with the Bucks is a different question.

but I do think that they're involved in this. The Warriors are fascinating because, yeah, I don't think there's anything that's going to save this season. And especially, like, even the outline of a Janus Steph and whatever else team, minus the stuff going out, their depth isn't great. And Janus is out for however many weeks he's out. So it's just, but you get him. If you had to do this now, if this was absolutely going to go down by February 5th,

and you're the Warriors, and you've got the ability to do it, it using everything you just mentioned, then I think you do it not because you think you're in it this year, but because you want Janus to go into next season with and you've got the offseason to figure the rest out. And that's the thing. Like I don't, I don't think there's a Janus trade that is going to change May and June, June in particular, because of everything you've already laid out. I think that is the list of teams. I was told recently that, The Lakers were a team to keep an eye on from Janus's standpoint, just as another team of interest. But again, you know, there's a difficulty there in terms of, you know, trade assets.

They're another team where once the summer comes, they've got more on the draft capital side of things. And they've got more clarity once they figure out where LeBron is or isn't and where Austin Reeves is because he's a free agent. But yeah, I mean, I think that's the landscape. And the other thing, just to go back to something you said in point one, like, no, Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma, these are not teams that I expect to be in the running for Janus. But what happens if just shit goes awry and you get bounced in the first round?

Like, weirder things have happened. And if you're the Bucks and you want just a hall of draft capital, of course, Oklahoma is the first team you would want to talk to. Of course, Houston is a team you'd want to speak with. and San Antonio. So, you know, look, the landscape could change. I don't expect it to, but the landscape could change April, May, June, and maybe suddenly the teams that have all the draft capital, and especially other teams picks, picks that

could be really good because they're not the team that Janus is going to. So I still think, as I say, the landscape could change a lot. Detroit could answer yes to this question. I don't sense it there in it. Brooklyn, a team that cannot be dismissed because of their draft assets and their young players and their market, certainly cannot answer to this question. Can we win the championship this? And it's easy to poo-poo this. And a team will talk themselves into poo-pooing it by saying, well, who cares if we can't win the title this season? A, he's injured right now, and he has a history

of cap problems, and he's missed playoff games in 2020, 2021 when they won the title, they only missed to 2020, and 2024. And so we don't even necessarily, you can talk yourself into, we don't really even care about this year. We're doing it for next year and then the opt-in slash extension,

whatever comes after that, which, by the way, it should be noted, Janus is going to have a lot of leverage and dictating sort of where he goes and no team is going to trade from, I don't think, without an indication that he would stay there.

And that's easy to talk yourself into. But this season really matters when he only has one plus one left, on his contract when he's 31 years old and you're trading a bounty to get him, I don't think you can just skirt over this question for this season, which brings me to the most interesting team, and that's Miami. Ira Winderman, who has covered the heat forever at the sunset, and it was tremendous. Literally since the franchise's inception. He tweeted out, okay, let's theoretically say, what's the heat's best offer for Janus? And he tweeted, hero, who I'm not convinced

the bucks want despite the fact that he's in Wisconsin kid. Wiggins goes elsewhere, but they get a pick for Wiggins, and they put that pick in the deal. So Wiggins plus a pick. Kalelele Ware, Jaime Hockes Jr., Rozier's contract, which is portable until the NBA says it's not portable. And all the picks, which right now I believe is two, but in the summer will be more swaps, whatever. And you get Yannis. And right now the heat are, after losing to the magic last night, the heat are 25 and 23 in the playing tournament. only two games out of not being in the playing tournament,

only five games out of the second seed in the east. Five is a lot, actually, at this stage. That leaves you, if you do that trade, let's just take Irish trade and do it. Your starting five is Davian Mitchell, Norm Powell, Pella Larson, maybe, Janice and Bam,

who have the same agent, and they're great basketball players, and they would make a fit work better than it might look on paper, but there are fit issues there. Your bench is Drew Smith, Yakuchonis, Rookie, Fontechio,

out of the rotation until recently. Yovic out of the rotation until recently. Some minimums in two-way guys and no backup center. I don't think that team could win the championship. I'm sorry. And that's, I mean, which raises sub-question,

big point number three is, can you get someone else to come with Janus? It, like, Kuzma is not that good, but is he helpful? That's why this, like, drew a holiday fantasy that's, but like, possibility. Can you work it so that it's not five for one, but it's five for two? And then sub-question three for a team like Miami is this, big question number four. How easy is it to add to your team this summer immediately? Because if you say, well, this year we don't care about so much, we're not going to win the championship

this year, but we're loading up for the future with Janice. the future is immediate. Every single year is more important than the one that comes after it for your championship equity. And just as an example, if the heat do that exact trade, they have $145 million of salary

on the books for next year, which vaporizes most of their cap room. You have a token amount that matches the mid-level exception. And that doesn't include Norm Powell, who's due a new contract. And so the answer is, yeah, you have the mid-level exception.

You have some tools, blah, blah, blah. But those are the questions you've got to answer if you're going to go all in for Janus. And this year is not going to be your year. You better be able to reorient your roster going forward. Now, the summer after that, the heat could get to a point where it's just Janus and Bam and Cap Space. And Pat Riley is, one would say, a veteran of that kind of situation

with Donovan Mitchell's free agency potentially there. And Yokic, I don't know how Yokich would ever fit if I don't think he'll ever leave Denver. So these are the big questions. You know, it's not that, it's not that simple. And those are, I think, the teams. I don't think I left out any other team other than a couple we're going to talk about. Talk about later.

Any parting thoughts on Janus? No, I think that pretty well covers it. You mentioned the Nets along the way, like, yeah, they have a boatload of picks, but they just have nothing for him to play with. And there's no point. But they're the team, how can we change our team this summer? They can do any number of things

to change their team this summer. But if I'm Yonis, I want to know. Like, I'm not going there on blind faith that me and Nick Claxer are going to take over the world together. The point of the exercise for Janus is the team I'm on no longer can contend for titles. I want to go to a team where I have better teammates. That seems pretty simple. And the Nets do not present that right now and would still have a pretty uphill battle to do this summer.

But yeah, they've got all the flexibility in the world in terms of draft capital and cap room and everything else. And it is an attractive market. We'll see. But again, this is why if I'm John Horace. I want the Nets and all their picks potentially in the mix. I want everybody in the mix. And the Nets have all those Nix picks. And if you're the Bucks, you could say, and you should do this with any team.

Because the Bucks picks, if the Bucks can't get their own picks back, which are owned by Atlanta and Portland mostly, or pieces of them. Which is why, as I said, on Monday's show, this wild three-way rumor between Portland, Milwaukee and New York has come up with Portland sending Milwaukee. It's picks back for reasons that I just, I just. I never found a deal that passed a smell test from Portland's perspective why they would do that. If you can't get those picks back, another thing you can do, whether it's the Nets or whoever, is work the, if you get a team that owns another team's picks, like the Nets own the Nix picks,

you have to, if you're Milwaukee, given your picks are swapped out in some years, have, well, I don't just want the Nix pick or your pick. I want the right to the best of whatever picks you have in this year and this year. I want to effectively be able to swap up as many times as I can in as many drafts as I can if I can't get my own picks back. I'm trying to think if we missed any team. I mentioned Toronto, right? They also have Murray Boyles who's good.

Toronto is like the why the hell not team. If you don't think you're that, if you don't think you can really do your good but not good enough now and set up to be good but not good enough over the next two or three years, that's a why the hell not? Like why the hell not? Miami's kind of been that boat too. But why the hell? Why the hell not? But it's going to be fascinating to see how this goes. It's certainly going to make for an eventful week in Milwaukee. And I hope that Janus had a good

breakfast this morning. What did you have for breakfast this morning? I had eggs, scrambled, some bell peppers mixed in. That's kind of a usual go-to for me. I don't know if it is for Janus, because, as you know, any given day, he might want something different. We did mention the Hawks, right? And I said, I think the Hawks are out. I do. I do. think the Hawks are out, I think Trey Young would have been the handy salary to put in that deal, and I don't think, again, they are 24 and 25.

You cannot responsibly if you're the Atlanta Hawks, one game under 500, be like, yeah, you know what? We'll trade Jalen Johnson on one of the best contracts in the entire league or the potential number one pick in the draft. We don't even know where it's going to be. We have the best of two picks. Like, I just don't think you can do it. I think they play the long game.

Okay, I'm done with Yonis. What else do you have to say? I think we are Janus out at this stage. Okay. Our next topic was going to be we each pick some X factors for the rest of the season that are not Janus. And X factors, I want swing factors. I want wide variance. I want this could be a zero. This could be a hundred.

And it has to swing the championship race. I have some honorable mentions that I did not pick because I've talked about them before. Would you like to hear my honorable mentions? Would love to. Does Detroit make a win now trade? Honorable mention. Does Fred Van Vleet come back? Honorable mention.

Does Minnesota make a smaller non-Yannis guard upgrade, Kobe White, Iodosumnu style trade? And then Aaron Gordon's legs. Those are my honorable mention. I've mentioned them a lot. Swing factors for the team. I will let you lead off with one of your X factors for the last of the season.

I mean, this one is so obvious that it's stupid, and I had jotted down on my notes on this before we had like three more waves of reporting on Jason Tatum. I don't think there's a bigger X factor potentially on the board anywhere, conceptually or otherwise for the rest of the season. I thought the most interesting first data point on this was he was on a podcast, the Pivot podcast, which our friend Jay King over at the athletic transcribes. this where I thought this was really interesting, Zach. Tatum talks about how he would fit in if and when he returned. This is before we get the new wave of reporting from Chris Haynes and Ramona Shelburne about him saying, eh, maybe I won't. But he talks about the fit about coming back. And he says, quote, that's something I contemplate every day, more about the team. If or when I do come back this season, they will have played 50-some-odd games without me, so they have an identity

this year or things that they have felt clicked for them and it's been successful. So the reason I bring that up is because, one, incredible self-awareness and humility, I think, on Jason Tatum's part. I love that aspect of it. Two, this does not happen very often. And I was trying to find an analogy, and it will be a strained analogy because I'm going to invoke the name. But when Michael Jordan came back after his first retirement, and Scotty Pippen had become the man, and like, this is a different scale and different level, different players, different era. But like, it's a decent analogy for what happens when the number one goes out the door and the number two becomes the number one and does a damn good job of it, right? Scotty leaving them to 55 wins, the one full

season, and then Michael comes back in the middle of or late in the second season. And Scotty's whole role changes. He's no longer the leading man. And Tatum and Brown have a lot of track record together, as Scotty and Michael did. And it's a different kind of relationship. Jalen Brown was MVP of the finals. Like they have, they know how to do this. And I'm not bringing this up for reasons of like ego, whose team it is or all that bullshit. It's just more the fact that it's just human nature, whether it's Jalen Brown himself and the way he has restiled, refashioned his game, and then having to adjust again, whether it's Tatum having to adjust and coming back, whether it's Tatum just adjusting to his body while still coming back from the Achilles, whether

it's just the fact that he's coming back to a team that no longer has Al Horford and Drew Holiday and Chris Sperzingis and Luke Cornett. And there's a bunch of guys who were barely, barely playing last time Jason Tatum was on the floor, who are now significant role players in this rotation. Some of them starters, Nimi's Keta. So like, I just think it's a fascinating test case if he comes back. He's waffling, but my gosh, like, let's go back to our leading cliche of the season that the East is wide open. They're playing this well without him. If you can get Jason Tatum back even at 85% of him, as long as there's no risk of re-injury, you know, why wouldn't you? And I think that changes the Eastern Conference race.

He was number one on my X-Factor list. Let's take a quick break before I get into my reasons for that. The Zach Lowe show is brought to by Fandul. FanDuel's putting you in control right from tip-off. That's right. You get to choose your reward. Play it safe. Go for it. Feeling bold? That's your move, I guess. Whatever your style, you're in control. No matter how you play, Fandall's giving you the power to choose your reward and own your game this NBA season. Head to Fandul.com slash low to make your pick, get in the game, and play it your way. 20 and over in President's Lake States are 18 and over in President D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming, opt-in required. Rewards are not withdrawal, but restrictions apply, including bonus and token expiration, leg requirements, and max-wager amount.

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we should be required to say Detroit is seven games up, seven in the Eastern Conference. That's a lot of games. I had Tatum as well. And I'll give the Celtics credit. Privately, publicly, they have never, ever pushed the idea that he was coming back this season. In fact, it's always been the opposite.

It's always like if he's ready, he'll come back, the fact that we're better than expected. They have, they're in a virtual tie with Denver for the number one offense in the NBA. That is one of the all-time crazy unexpected accomplishments for a team and a coach in Joe Missoula and his staff that I can ever remember. They lost Jason Tatum, Christop Spitzfreyfinger's Drew Holiday, it's Luke Cornett, et cetera, et cetera, Al Horford, and have the number one offense in the NBA. That's crazy. So, I mean, they've never pushed him.

They're not going to push him. They will actually err on the side of caution. Tatum has Tatum and the workouts that he's publicized and all that, none of which have been contact were like five on five contact anything like that as far as I know, has created the rumblings and the hope and the timing of the surgery that Bill has mentioned and all that. And as great as the Celtics have been, they're 29 and 18. I just don't think they can win three playoff series, as is now, given how many unproven players they're relying on, who are becoming proven to some degree.

They've had perfect health, almost no setbacks at all. And that rarely sustains for a full season. Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn't. And you can see some wear down happening. Like Derek White's just been at a shooting slump for a month, basically. So I think despite the fact that it could create. A, is Tatum coming back to be the guy kind of thing?

I think it can't help, but it can't help but help them if he comes back. He's a great defensive player. He'll have lost a half a step, a quarter of a step that he'll regain gradually. He's a great spot-up shooter. I don't know how much he'll lean into being a secondary player. But he's a pretty self-aware guy. If he gets on the floor and he realizes like, hey, I'm not quite myself yet. Or maybe he won't get on the floor until he feels like he is quite himself.

and then we won't see them until next year. I do have to say, I take note every time Jalen Brown makes a comment about basically like, yeah, man, you see now what I had to sacrifice. Like, I've always been this good. You know, like you see, I've had to sacrifice stuff. It's just I take note. I take note. Yeah, no, listen, I've brought this up before.

But, you know, in previous years, you know, earlier in their partnership, when they were rumblings about are they going to stay together and this and that, whatever, a lot of it had to do with the fact that folks around the had, you know, we're very aware that Jalen Brown saw himself as a number one. Like, he was a willing co-star, but he was somebody who envisioned himself as somebody who could lead a team. And now Jalen Brown has gotten that chance and has shown, fuck yeah, dude was right all along. He's, he's absolutely cut out for this and for a leading man role with everything on his shoulders. And, and let's face it, not exactly like superstars around him with all due respect to, you know, the Derek White's and Peyton Pritchards and everybody else.

Jalen Brown has shown that all that talk and all that what seemed like maybe to some people bluster once upon a time was warranted. And it doesn't mean that this has to be a permanent state of affairs. It doesn't mean that he doesn't also have the self-awareness to be able to reel back and bring Jason Tatum back in the fold. But he is putting up like career high usage by a very, very large stretch here. And he's just, Bill and I were watching the Celtics game last night. just ruthless hunting these undersized guards and or below average defenders. I mean, if it's crunch time,

like they played poorly the other night, every possession was bring me shade and sharp. Bring me shade and sharp, and I mean, you're going to bully him or you're going to send a double team. CJ McCollum, bring them to me. It's just, it's ruthless apex predator shit that he's doing right now

and it's awesome to watch. And I'm actually going to walk myself back a bit. I think the Celtics could make the finals given the state of the east because someone has to, and they're just playing that well, like they're that good. I just think their margin for error is,

is like zero to win three straight playoff series and that I wouldn't pick them to make the finals, but they've been just really, really good. And I want to make sure I give them their do. I have another important Celtic steak. You ready? Yeah. So I have a lot of teenagers in my life now

because I'm a suburban dad loser and my daughter has a lot of friends who have older siblings or older siblings and their friends. And we always joke that every teenage boy in Connecticut has the same haircut. We call it the llama haircut. Hatsat tip my friend Karen, who coined it the llama haircut, where there's just a big puff of hair and it's like goes down to right above your eyebrows. It's just like a ball of hair.

And I don't know, she calls it the llama, so it's called the llama. I think Hugo Gonzalez is the first NBA llama. I think he has the first NBA haircut. And I'm here for all of it. And he's clearly ahead of the fashion curve because the teenage boys that I know sounds like a bad phrase that I just said. The teenage boys that I know and I'm familiar with, a lot of them have the llama. They have the Hugo Gonzalez. I've heard this as the alpaca a couple of years ago.

Aren't they basically the same thing? I think. I don't know. Now the nature people are going to be like, you know, it's not a dolphin. It's a porpoise. As soon as I heard it, saw it, maybe saw an Instagram reel or something about it. But all of a sudden, that's all I could see. It's just a flock of llamas running around everywhere you look.

Who goes a llama? By the way, side note, quietly, despite the fact that Darius Garland's been out, Max Drus is out endlessly on and on and on. Caves, five straight wins, blew out the Lakers in the LeBron homecoming game last night, tied for fourth in the east with Toronto, 29 and 20. And I've talked about the Cavs a lot. I will say I did read Dave McMendeman's piece where he said the Cavs would gladly welcome back LeBron for a farewell season.

LeBron has not said whether he's retiring or not. He has to have the conversation with his family. I have ranked it several times on this podcast in the last six months. If I had to rank the three true outcomes of LeBron's 20, 26, 2027 season, and this is just like even no one knows. I do my best to talk to people and read the tea leaves. I've always said, number one, farewell tour with another team, almost certainly Cleveland. Number two, retire.

Number three, stays with the Lakers. And I don't know if it's 40, 31, 29, if I did the math right. But it's not, I don't feel very strongly about it. But the Cleveland romanticism has always been there. And people say it like it's easy. It's like, let's say Cleveland makes the finals. And they have a bunch of young, good players in their primes. It's not like you just, first of all, the money element,

how much money is you going to take? How much of a pay cut is he willing to take? Cleveland has basically nothing to offer. unless there's crazy sign and trade, which I don't even think they can do. You just to plop, plop LeBron in there? It's not like,

you're just like, all right, I'll be Sam Merrill. I'll just run around and do stuff. But I did, I agree with Dave is well sourced in the LeBron camp, and that was interesting to me. Okay, give me your second X factor.

I bet we have the same second X factor too. I don't know because I was, I was bouncing all over the place mentally yesterday. as I was as you after you sent me the assignment. But I'm going to, please don't groan if this is not in your list here. The health of Joelle and Bid and Paul George. Number two on my list.

Forget Paul George. Paul George is fine. Paul George has played great for this, played exactly as you want Paul George to play for the sixers. He did nine, three, the other night, which apparently is a Sixers team record. Joel Embed is number two on my list. All right.

I'm going to let you, I'm going to let you finish. I'm going to let you finish. This is at least like 3% of me doing a modest victory lap. My take last summer. Oh, no, don't. The victory lap. All I'm saying is that all I was saying at the time was we shouldn't just assume that these guys are dead and buried. That we needed to at least acknowledge the possibility that in lieu of any additional medical information,

that there was still a possibility of Joel and Bede, Paul George, getting back to some semblance of who they were, and that that combined with Maxie could be enough to make them at least respectable. That's all I had said. And I did, I think I boldly put them as a top four team in the East, and right now I think they're sixth, and they're, you know, in shouting distance. They're also in shouting distance of falling into play in hell. Paul George explodes for 32 points the other night,

nine threes, tied a franchise record, looking very good as a high-level role player. maybe the most expensive overpaid role player in history, but who fucking cares? It doesn't, yeah, it doesn't matter. He's there. Not my money. Not my money. Not my cap space.

Not great for cap management purposes, but who cares? He's super effective and he's willing to play the role off of Maxi and Embed and Edgecombe and who else, whoever else you want to put in there. I think they're eight and eight with their big three. but the 330 38 minutes together with a 118 offensive rating that would be fifth in the NBA

111 or so defensive rating that would be third in the NBA that's a plus 7.3 that would be for net rating that would be second for the season they are middle of the pack in every facet offensive defensively in that rating but they're they're showing and Embede is showing

so we get back to the main piece of this Joel and B. looks a hell of a lot better today than he did a month or so, a month and a half or so ago, or in October, late October, where it looked like he was laboring just to get up and down the court

and wasn't going anywhere near the paint. He's still not where he used to be defensively in terms of paint protection or just lateral movement, but he's a lot more active than he was. And his offensive production is flirting with his old self. Like, he's a wrecking ball again.

And his, his mid-range shooting touch, like his shot profile has changed quite a bit. And he's shooting terribly from three. But he's been incredible from the mid-range. And it doesn't matter where he gets the points. It just matters that he's putting him up out of a pretty efficient clip. And yeah, suddenly with a functional Joelle Embed, a MVP caliber, Tyrese Maxie, a super good rookie in an edgecom and a very high-level wing and Paul George, Kelly Ubra's back.

They look really good. They look really competitive. And again, like, yeah, Detroit, we should note as often as possible. Detroit has a huge lead in the east and maybe it's not so wide open. But after them, with the Knicks trying to figure their identity out again, and the calves, you know, every so often they start to come out of it and then they slip again. I don't see why the Sixers are not given health in that mix. This is the best story in the NBA right now.

And frankly, I never thought that we would see this again from Joel Embed. For the season, he's averaging 25 points, 8 rebounds, 3.5 assists a game, 48% shooting, 52% on twos. Not up to his standards. Fine. He's recovering from all sorts of injuries. he's played 15 of the Sixers last 19 games. He's played a lot of minutes in a lot of those games.

Like regularly 30, 35, I think he's cracked 40 once or twice. In those 15 games, 15 out of 19, so they sat him four times on back to backs. 29 points, eight rebounds, four assists, 53% shooting, 33% on threes, creep it up, 57% on twos. I just never thought we would see this level of consistency again from him over even this many games. And it's just delightful to watch. He, there is still something of a stylistic. I don't want to say tug of war just Maxine Ambide are built to fly. Maxi and Edgecombe are built to fly.

Embed is not built to fly. But Embed is not in their half court. He's happy to let them run. You run, like I'll hit ahead to you and I'll trail for, three or whatever. In the half court, his time of possession, his touch time is as low as it's ever been in his career.

He is happy to set screens, pitch the ball, set another screen, pitch the ball. He's posting up still and is a little bit more in the last couple of weeks. And he's posting up like to pass as much as he is to score. And

it's just been awesome to watch. No one can guard him in the place. Now, the power game isn't all the way back, right? He's not just bulldozing everyone getting to the basket. But if you look at his numbers, I'm looking at him now.

His rim shots are up where they almost, they're sniffing where they were in his best seasons. 30% of his shots have come at the rim this season. That was at like 35, 37 in his MVP level play. And it's, and it was much below 30% like a month ago. So it's rising.

He's getting to the basket more. His horizontal burst is much better than it was. a month ago. He can get from point A to point B on the horizontal plane to block a shot, to challenge a shot to burst up, to burst toward the rim, much faster than he could. His vertical bounce is still not there, despite the al-Aupi had the other night, his Dunkin Madison Square Garden. Maybe that never comes back. Maybe it comes back later. But he's been awesome. He has a legit All-Star case now. I don't know if he'll make it as a reserve because of the games played. I just didn't, I had kind of given up on this.

I still don't have any faith that it can survive three straight playoff series and if he can't they can't make the finals but every week two weeks that goes by with him playing pretty much every game at a heavy minutes load that my lack of faith

in that gets chipped away at a little bit and it's awesome like it's one of the best stories in the league and with Embed on the floor for the season they're plus six per 100 possessions when Embed is off the floor they're minus two per 100 possessions. The other team doesn't get to the rim quite as much because he's still

enormous. Even if he can't jump, he's still enormous and intimidating. And their shooting percentage at the rim is much lower with him beat on the floor. So some of his defensive effects remain intact. I just think, look, he's a polarizing player. The health is what it is. I just think this is delightful. And yes, this is maybe as big an X factor as Tate of. If he can play like this, this is not just a feel good story. This is a real team that even if if I don't have any faith that they can win three playoff series, that MB can sail for three playoff series. They could beat Detroit in one playoff series. They could beat the Knicks in one playoff series. They could beat any team in the East in one playoff series. And that's scary

for everyone else in the East. And I barely mention him. And by McCain's playing better. Ubre's back. They have trade assets. If they want to go after a power forward, I'm not sure that they'll find one that works. And Edgecombe is fucking unbelievable. completely fearless, very good on both ends of the floor. And when he plays well and shoots well, they're really hard to beat. Like this is the best, maybe the best story in the entire NBA. I'm delighted. It's fantastic.

And you know, you and I both know, the Sixers quietly were insisting all along. We have no reason to believe that Joelle Embed's knee is something that is going to be debilitating or chronic or permanent. That we think that there is some semblance of him coming back. He just needs some time. he's turning 32 in March, which, look, he maybe he's an old 32, given all the injuries and all the time he is spent on the floor and getting banged up and even coming into the league with back and feet issues and all that. But 32 is not that old in today's NBA in general. So I just, I always felt it was a little too soon to just kind of write them off that this is done and people talking about, you know, should they like wave and stretch him or something or whatever. A couple other interesting just kind of like data notes as I was scrounging around yesterday.

Do you know many dunks he has through 26 games? I think two. It's 10. It's 10. 10. I guess he's dunked more recently and I just haven't noticed. Per basketball reference on their chart. So I'm taking that for, I'm taking that for granted.

I would take them as gospel. Yes, I do. But it would be way, way, way down, obviously for a guy who's, you know, obviously. power player. His, 60% of his two-pointers are assisted, that would be a career high. So to the point of, like, him not being the same mobile shot-creating, ball-dominating player, yeah, most of his shots are assisted at this point. His, we talked about the mid-range shot being awesome.

Ten feet and closer, he's down in terms of, uh, shooting percentage by about 100 percentage points. Like he's, he's, he's way off closer to the basket. And again, like, you see it,

like he, because he doesn't have the burst and the lift, but he's still just a physical beast. And, you know, if he gets it anywhere near there, you know, watch out.

And I think he's still getting a lot of that back, too. Like, assuming, again, everything is assuming health right now, he may only keep gaining in terms of mobility and lift between now and the playoffs. So I think, I think I'm with you. It's fantastic.

He's, once a superstar fades, we start to, it's natural to write them off and think we're never seeing that guy again. The fact that he can defy all that is fantastic. The Sixers are a factor. And yeah, I don't expect them in the finals, but they're, you laid it out. They are going to be in the ultimate position of playing spoiler in the first round and maybe the second. Mbita is shooting 64% of the basket this season in his best season's. That was like 75%. But again, it's trending up as is everything Sixers.

And just a great story. Just a great story. I have two more X factors, but we'll take a quick break before I get to my last two X Factor. This episode is brought to you by Men's Warehouse. So you've looked at all the data. You've looked at your lineup. And yep, you need to freshen up your wardrobe. So check out Men's Warehouse.

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the busy work that gets in the way of the actual work. Service Now's AI specialists tackle that work. Request handled, cases closed, the whole thing done. So you have more time for the work you actually want to do. For me, that's breaking down SGA film whenever I want and then talking about it into a microphone. To learn how to put AI to work for people, visit servicenow. All right, I'm going to go now. Is that okay? I'm going to take the wheel. Hit me. X factor number three for me. So we had the same first two, Tatum and M. Bid. And by the way, we should have mentioned with Tatum, Ramona Shelburne, today that I don't know if she spoke to Tatum or sorts close to Tatum, but kind of that pushing back on the idea that he's made any decision to shut it down for the season, that he's

sort of taking it day by day, which you would expect. Okay, X factor number three for me, Jalen Williams for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who's been out for a little bit, yet another sort of lower body thing. I don't think it's anything long term. The Thunder are 14 and 9 in their last 23 games. Underwhelming. Their offense in that stretch is 10th overall. good but underwhelming.

Their defense is still number two overall, and they only have only by their standards, the third best net rating over those 23 games. Would you care to guess the two teams that outrank the thunder since mid-December in net rating in the NBA? This is actually tough. Is Boston one of them?

No, Boston was one of them until yesterday. The Atlanta loss took Boston down to fourth in net rating since this artificial timestamp that I'm creating. Is Detroit one of them? Detroit is one. All right. I'm really tempted to say Denver? Nope.

Denver has scrounged their way to a better record without Yokic than their point differential would indicate. San Antonio. Nope. Wow. Look at me whiffing away. I think I'm stumped.

I'll give you a clue. I'm afraid Bill is going to overhear this and storm through the wall of the studio like the Kool-Aid man, celebrating. Celebrating? I'm, I, you lost. Charlotte. Oh, I forget about his hornets fixation.

Wow, wow. Yeah, that, you could have given me like 50 guesses and there's only 30 teams. They've had a couple, the two massive blowouts they've had, Philadelphia and Utah are lifting that up a lot. But hey, blowouts are indicative of potential danger and their danger. dress. Jalen Williams. I mentioned the Thunder's offense is 10th overall in that stretch. Good, but not

great. And by the way, I'm reading almost nothing into this like by their standard slump. They've had Kason Wallace missed recent games, Alex Caruso missed recent games, Aaron Wiggins missed recent games. J. Dub, we're talking about right now. Hartenstein missed most of this stretch, and he's,

as I've said, many times, more important to their offense than their defense because it's rebounding and they're passing. They're playing these lineups. A.J. Mitchell has missed a bunch of recent games. Like they're just down so many guys and clearly just like we're taking it easy

until with our health and our rotations until the playoffs that they're playing lineups like Usman Jang is now startlingly relevant to their team. Barnheiser is playing a lot. Carlson's playing it's just not their real team even with Shea and Shet as Constance. J-Dubb just has not

played a lot this season. He's not been in peak form coming back from The wrist injuries, averaging 17 a game, his shooting is down. And I'm just bringing him up for obvious reasons. With Shea on the floor for this season, 121 points per 100 possessions. That's better than Denver and Boston on the team level in offensive rankings. Without him, 108, that's bad.

It's straight up like bad. But they're still winning the non-shay minutes because their defense is so good. And interestingly, when you dig into it, their defense in the non-shay minutes is so good because their foul rate is, way, way down when he's off the floor. I'm not sure what that's about if it's about anything or it's about the other players that are playing.

And Jalen Williams is obviously meant to prop up those minutes. One of the reasons I'm not super worried about any of this is with A.J. Mitchell busting out like this and Chet making a little bit of a leap offensively, they should have enough offense when Shea sits with J-Dub, Mitchell, and Chet all playing those minutes. and I think they all should, or if not Chet,

then Hartenstein, for sure. I think that's enough to get by. And actually, in the limited minutes, those three have played without Shea,

they're plus 11 per 100 possessions. Again, most of that is offense is just so, so defense is outrageously good, rim protection, free throw rate, allowed, turnovers, all that.

But I say this all to say, the spurs are coming. I'm not sure they're ready to win three playoff series in the West yet, but I'm not counting them out and they obviously have something with the thunder. And Denver, to me, is now a peer equal to the thunder.

What they have proven without Yokech and without a host of other guys is so astonishing and speak so well of what they have going there that if they're healthy and full blast, and it's why Aaron Gordon's legs are my honorable mention X factor, I think they're as good as the thunder. I think I might actually pick them over the thunder in a playoff series, which is all to say, the Thunder need the Jalen Williams who had so many big games in the playoffs that he was like almost neck and neck with Shea for finals MVP for a hot second.

I have a friend who will remain nameless who's in the analytics community who has been tracking Jalen Williams as very puzzling like RAPM numbers like the other the advanced on-off type stuff. Yeah. R-A-PM is down by minus.27. Yeah. I take these with a grain of salt, but it's an interesting discussion on the text chain back and forth over weeks. But it's just one of those kind of keeping an eye on,

like, this is weird, this is puzzling. It's like sometimes when the guy's a great offensive player but the net negative defensively, then you go like, oh, that might be what's dragging them down. What is what's going on here? I don't know. I'm just bringing it up because it's interesting. The Thunder have firmly established themselves in the,

I'm not worried about them as long as they're healthy in the spring territory, right? But I also think, and it's fascinating to, you know, as we sit here on January 29th, to consider this that a month or so ago, five weeks ago, we were talking about were they, you know, going to break the all-time wins record? Can anybody beat them? Is there even any point to the rest of the season? And now you are saying, I think, quite accurately, like there is absolutely a race in the West and the nuggets are right there as given health. And the spurs are, I think, arguably right there. And they do seem to have, I don't want to say that have the

number, but they know how to beat them. They got something. They got something. The Thunder won the most recent one. They got a little vengeance. But they got something. What they have is a bunch of guards who can dribble at high levels, which you need against the hounding defense like the Thunder as much ball security and ball handling as you can

get. And a dude who's 7-5 and just wrecked shit all over the place. Like all that is very good. The Western Conference playoffs are going to be fucking amazing, at least after the first round. Like, again, the thunders. And what the thunder have is the constant that no team can touch. Their defense is coming every single night. Shooting can come and go.

They're bringing that defense every night. And when they amp it up and they start taking the ball from you, that helps their offense. They become very hard to beat. The defense is going to be there every night. The offense has had, you know, some stagnancy to it, even when they were in their title run. Even this year, just a lot of possessions where it's a lot of Shea, that's fine. He's amazing.

or when like Shea gives up the ball after a pick and roll, there's just not much else happening. There's not a lot of randomness. I'd like a little more randomness, a little more flow to their half-court offense. And having a second elite ball handler to unlock that or third, I guess you want to throw A.J. Mitchell in the conversation is like get Shea moving off the ball a little bit, get a little more improv, get a little more like when I kick it, I'm kicking it to a guy who can really do something with it. So he's my X-Factor. Do you have another X-Factor or do you want me to give you my last one? I had two others that I had jotted down. Weirdly, one of them still in the Atlantic division. Is that what they call it?

I don't know. Carl Anthony Towns's mood slash play. You know, he's always been a bit of an enigma. And he's clearly been struggling. And then we get to report this morning from Sam Amick that maybe Towns has not gotten over feeling like they were going to, you know, send him off in a Janus trade in the offseason, that this has been kind of eating at them. There's the, you know, Towns and Mike Brown, whether they're meshing enough or meshing well. There's, you know, James Edwards at the Athletic had noted this the other

day that the last couple of games that they had won prior to last night, their best stretches were with towns on the bench and, you know, kind of a more defensive-minded lineup around Jalen Brunson. Well, not only their best stretches, but some of the stretches to end. close games. And crunch time. Yeah. Yeah.

Kind of an indictment. It's not like a thing, but it's a few. It's a few. It's not nothing. He was a plus 19 in the win at Toronto last night. 22 rebounds. The guy's leading the league in rebounding. Like he can't like, look, I've talked a lot about Kat.

He's an easy target. Like the guy's leading the league in rebounds. That counts for something. But in terms of X factors for the stretch, like, yeah, like I've got an eye on the Knicks chemistry specifically regarding towns and his production because those things are going hand in hand and he definitely is a guy who it seems like one tracks with the other when it comes to his demeanor and how you know whether he's feeling valued whether he's feeling included whether he's feeling uh you know what you know there's that that version of towns that kind of awkwardly puffs out his chest

but you need that guy and when that confidence and the the you know just general feeling of of whatever isn't there, it all kind of erodes. And so, and he's back in those same Janus discussions for at least another week. What, what is it due to my declaration that the wolves won the cat trade if the Knicks somehow turned cat and other things into Janus? I think, I think I then lose again. I don't know. I mean, I don't know if they can do it, but it depends what else would be involved.

I don't know. I don't know. Give me your last one. The last one was just kind of a, I don't think this impacts the race, but I am at least curious what it looks like when Austin Reeves returns to the Lakers. They were 19 and 10 when he went down.

They're 9 and 8 cents. Yeah. I actually think the Lakers, because they have a negative point differential, as everybody knows, they've won a million close games. Luca looks good, but the chemistry is not there, et cetera.

It's a Aiton is wildly frustrating. And Dalton Connect demanded a trade. Apparently I saw that reported yesterday. I don't know if Dalton Connect trade demand trumps Furcon Korkmises trade demand is the most ridiculous trade demand in the history of the NBA. But kudos to Dolan Connect. They're still good. They're 28 and 18. They're so good.

And they are missing Austin Reeves who has probably been their second best player this year and a really good fit with Luca. You know, they're clinging on to fifth. Like I think everyone has sort of shoved them into the play in a little prematurely. But, you know, their point differential suggests that perhaps they should. should be shoved there. Okay, I have one more. You ready? Hit me. Franz Wagner, who's injured. Not really sure other than maybe he really wanted to or the NBA really wanted him to or both. Why Franz Wagner played the Europe game or games. I can't remember if he played both of them off the top of my head against Memphis. But he's been out since then.

I hope it was great for everybody involved. And he's on here only because the magic did beat the heat last night, they are four and oh against the heat this season. They're 24 and 22, negative point differential for the season. Their last best hope for this core, that sounds a little dramatic, but I'm fine with it, is that their projected starting lineup

of Bain, Suggs, Franz, Powell, and Wendell Carter, Jr. It's plus 47 and 117 minutes. 117 minutes. That's nothing. They've played together in 11 games this season. Franz, Powell, and Suggs played 97 minutes total all of last season in six games.

And I'm sure the magic want to see that starting five and that fit before they decide anything about Jamal Mosley, before they decide anything about Franz and Palo's fit together. They definitely took note, as said Palo, as did everyone, that the team looked a little crisper when Palo was out. And I don't mean they were better, although they were. I just mean they looked CRISPR with a three-guard lineup of Black, Bain, Suggs, Wagner, and a center. That works. And there's just a lot.

There's a lot of funk here in how they've been playing recently, but there's also a lot going on. Palos had a Blas season. We all know that. Anthony Black has had a great season. We all know that. He's a starter level player. Jalen Suggs has been hurt for a ton of the season as he is every season, shooting 31% on threes and makes, you know, a decent amount of,

of money, 30, 30 and declining over the next five years. It's an okay contract. It's a good contract if he plays. He just doesn't play very much. And Anthony Black has established himself as a starter who's also going to get paid. And they just can't pay all of these guys. Something about the dynamic

of their team hasn't worked. And I think they are looking at Franz as A, their best player. I don't know what they think Franz is their best player. And B, the potential glue that can make this work on the level they hope. it would work.

And if it doesn't, if he comes back this season and they're just meh, I think everything is on the table in the off season. Maybe not everything. Maybe not trading Franz. I think like, what do they do with Paolo? Do they have a new coach?

I think a lot of it is on the table. So if and when he returns, I'm going to be watching the magic very closely. Up to and including, can they play the lineup of Black Bain, Suggs, Franz, and Palo? Or is it just too small to play Paulo? Five.

I don't know. Do they need a new center? They're just like everything is in flux for them unless it all locks into place when Franz comes back. So that's why they're on my list. And the magic have traditionally been, I would say, conservative to say the least when it comes to they're not a blow it up team. They're not a make dramatic trades team. They're not a team I would ever expect in a million years to trade Palo Bancaro just a few years after drafting him. But that may well be what the answer is here.

that I've been skeptical of the Bancaro-Vogner combination as it was, and I don't think anything that's happened has changed that, and it's not just Bancero on his own. It just seems like, and again, we can go back to all the on-off stats that, you know, they're consistently better with, I think, just Wagner know Bancero and very rarely when it's Bancero no Vangero. But again, a lot of those stats get blown up

when their best players are all together, including Suggs, who despite being an up-and-down shooter, is something of a skeleton keeper. for their team, but we just haven't seen it enough. I can't build my roster on the dream of these 200 minutes that we have altogether, particularly when I have a rising guard like Anthony Black, who's going to get paid as much as or more than Suggs on his next contract, because he's been their second best player this season probably behind Franz when healthy.

He's been awesome. I think maybe better than maybe Mayn. It depends on your taste, I guess. But for a team that has been usually kind of consistent. conservative not swinging for the fences. They made a swing for the fences type deal when they traded all those picks to get Bain last summer. So that was kind of out of character for them. But it showed how much confidence they had in the core and in bringing Bain into that core. And injuries or no injuries, if it doesn't work out this season and they are well below expectations in terms of their production

so far or their win-lost record, then yeah, I do think this is the off-season where everything has to be on the table. And I don't think they can save this season. Like they were a legit. shit. Their over under was 50 and a half. Reasonable people picked them to make the NBA finals. I did not, but I didn't look at that pick as like, that's a laughable, ridiculous pick. I thought it was a little premature. But I don't think there's any going back to that world. I think this season is too far gone. There are too many questions to answer. They've been too many injuries, et cetera. It's too much, just too much funk. This is more about what does this feel like when their season is over? And if it doesn't feel good, if it doesn't feel like they've

figured something out in the last X amount of games that Franz played and presumably a first round playoff series, I think the teams could look, if not a lot, dramatically different, like significantly different next year. All right, Howard Beck, real ones. What else we got? Real ones. And story involving some of the bigger names in the NBA that I'm working on and still wrestling with my editor about when it will run, but possibly next week.

Well, that's a good tease right there, Howard Beck. Wow. That's artfully done. All right, you're the man. Enjoy Brooklyn and the freeze that is going on on the East Coast. Thank you, Howard Beck, everybody. Thank you, Zach. All right, that's it for the Zach Lowe show this week. Pending, pending news.

You never know. I'm out in Los Angeles. I've got to travel at some point. You just never know what's going to happen when it's going to happen to trade deadline week. We're in the hot zone. But as of now, that's it for this week. Thank you to Howard Beck. Thank you, as always to Mike, Billy, and Jonathan on production.

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