THEMOVE - 2024 Vuelta a España GC & Stage 1 Predictions | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: August 16, 2024

Welcome to WEDŪ's stage preview and prediction-focused show, OŪTCOMES, which is hosted by THEMOVE regulars Johan Bruyneel, who has led teams to nine Tour de France titles as a director, and Spencer Martin, writer of the Beyond the Peloton in-depth race breakdown newsletter. The duo uses their extensive knowledge of the sport to attempt to predict the outcome of each major race while breaking down the course, top contenders, and potential betting opportunities. This episode previews both the General Classification and opening stage for the upcoming Vuelta a España. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. This Episode is Sponsored By Factor Meals  Head to https://www.factormeals.com/themove50 and use code themove50 to get 50% off your first box plus 20% off your next month. That’s code themove50 at FACTOR MEALS to get 50% off your first box plus 20% off your next month while your subscription is active!  

So hard course, not a ton of time trial, kilometers just 37. Who is going to win this race? I'm going to go with the heavy favorites, Primoz Roglic. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johan Bernil, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. We are simply here to provide information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only. It is a responsibility of all visitors to this podcast to check current local laws in their area or country before doing any gambling online.

It is your responsibility to know and follow your local laws in place. Although we try best to provide accurate information on outcomes, we cannot be held responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect information which is mentioned on this show. If you place any bets based on the conversations on outcomes, you confirm or understand that it is possible to lose some or all monies used when betting on sports or doing any gambling. You cannot hold outcomes responsible for any such losses. Our podcast is here to provide entertainment and should be viewed as that and nothing more. Thanks for tuning in. Hey everybody, welcome back to Outcomes.

We are predicting the overall of the upcoming Vuelta a España, which starts tomorrow, as well as stage one. We will start with the overall. I'll read the odds from Unibet in Europe. I'll call out better prices when I see them on the big U.S. books, FanDuel and DraftKings. Then we'll get Johan's take on how this is going to play out. Primoz Roglic is the heavy, heavy favorite at plus 200. Sepp Kuss at plus 400. Joao Almeida plus 500.

Adam Yates plus 600. Enric Mas plus 800. Mika Landa plus 1,400. Danny Martinez plus 1,800. Richard Carapaz plus 2,200. Carlos Rodriguez plus 2,200. 800 Mika Landa plus 1400 Danny Martinez plus 1800 Richard Caraplatt, Richard Caraplatt plus 2200 Carlos Rodriguez plus 2200. It goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to.

If you're wondering why I'm yelling numbers at you plus 200 means that if you bet $100, you get $200 of profit for a total payback of $300. Johan, how is this CC going to play out? We just talked about it on the move, but this is an extremely hard course. There's 12, I count 12 mountain stages, nine summit finishes, only two real flat stages, two time trials, 62,000 meters of vertical gain, which is ridiculous. But so hard course, not a ton of time trial kilometers just 37 who is going to win this race

um i'm going to go with the heavy favorite uh primos roglic won the tour of the world already three times uh once again had bad luck in the tour de france uh it looked very serious with a few broken vertebrae i don't know how serious the fractures were, if it was cracked or... Anyway, it's still a serious injury. He has done this before already. He's come back from the tour not knowing how he was and then just showed up and won it. So for me, he's the big favorite.

He's plus 200. Not great, but having in mind that it's Primoz Roglic and he has something to prove. I mean, he doesn't have anything to prove, basically. I mean, he's Primoz Roglic. He's won so many races, but I'm pretty sure in his mind, he said, okay, I need to do something. And if there's one guy who can really come back from a bad situation like this,

it's Primoz. And Vuelta is his ideal terrain. You know, there's steep climbs. He can hang in there. Bonifications, a lot of bonifications at stake, which is usually how he wins his races. And then considering the competition, it's a competition. It's a competition that Primoz can match.

So I'm going to pick him as the heavy favorite to win the race. Yeah. Listen, if we, if we break down, how do you win this Vuelta? It's you take bony seconds at the top of the summit finishes and you do well in the time trials and you're going to win the overall. There's no one better in the world at that than Primoz Roglic. Oh, and by the way, Red Bull Bora, Hansgrohe,

strongest team in this race. Pretty good combination right there. As you say, you never feel good when you hear rumors of broken vertebrae, but this is just what Primoz does. This is the formula. You crash out of the tour, you might have some broken vertebrae, you go to a little training camp at altitude and you're unbelievable at the vault

did you remember 20 is that 2021 no 2022 when he beat he passed enric moss in the final time trial who got second place overall yeah like i think we're shaping up for for that version of primo 2021 2021 2021 okay and 2022 was you're right that was the victory over no he didn't win 20 that was yeah so he last the last time he won this was 2021 but the thing about primos is there's got to be a little bit of unfinished business here you know he was here last year with sep kus who was his teaming at the time, got called off his assault. He really,

you know, you could tell he really wanted to go for that record tying fourth victory. I think, you know, a little bit about winning four vaults as Johan, because you directed someone to it. We won't say the name because there's a phantom trivia question hanging

out there. I don't want to step on, but this has got, it's got to mean a lot to him that he now can go at Sep Kuz. No one can call him off. We'll have full team support, incredibly strong team. This is what Red Bull spent the money for to come to grand tours and win

them with Primoz Roglic. It's very hard to bet against him. Frankly, plus 200. I'm surprised. It's not, it's not steeper than that because he's the heavy favorite. The only downside is this man crashes all the time. Um, that would be my concern.

That's why my pick and you got, you and George talked me into this, uh, on our open therapy session. We just recorded on the move, but Sep Kuss plus 400. At first I thought, why is he so high up? You know, what, what do we have? Like, what is going to tell, what is telling us that he's going to win this race other than that he won it last year? That's the usually not a great reason to pick someone, but you know, he did look good of well to Burgos.

He's been, he's had a lot of time to prepare for this. Like I think pulling him out of the tour was the right decision. And the key thing is, you think who else is going to win this other than Primoz Roglic? Joao Almeida, Adam Yates, both on UAE. And you have Danny Martinez, Alexander Vlasov, both on Red Bull.

Probably won't have clean runs at this. And the thing is, UAE, we just talked about this on the move. I worry that without Tadej Pogacaracha they kind of from they like they deflate like a souffle you know is is not been cooked correctly and they're just like throwing they have all these leaders they're bringing to the race how's that actually going to play out and all these guys like with almeida and yates they were so good at suiz so good at the tour

can they realistically sustain that for three weeks into into september if they cannot and sep kuz has a pretty much roglic has a problem i don't think sep kuz i don't think it's crazy for him to repeat especially as you said on the move with all these summit finishes if he's in shape it's just copy paste the same performance over and over again and he's actually plus 550 on draft kings and once you get out to that number if you get him at that price that's good i like that quite a bit yeah i think sapkus is going to be super motivated has the full support of his whole team you know compared to for example last year it's played in his favor but you know he's not gonna there's not gonna be any doubt you know who's the leader what their goal is, comes in as last year's winner,

but not the heavy favorite, which is also an advantage for his team at least. So I think this course is ideal for Sepp. As we said, 60 plus thousand meters of climbing, which is insane, but that's his terrain. So I like that. I like that. And especially if you can get him at 550, I would definitely have a go.

Yeah. I mean, as you and George said on the move, so it's, it's about 20,000 more vertical meters of climbing than the Giro d'Italia this year. And that, so what is that? That's like three extra mountain stages that they've added in. And it's just like the tour it's a mountain stage. I think it's summit finish stage 19, summit finish stage 20, time trial stage 21. So you erase this all the way through the line. You know, exactly the same as the tour de France, also stage four,

same as the tour de France stage four was a mountain stage over the Galibier. This is the same thing, mountain stage very early on. So you have to be on top of your game straight away. And then, you know, stage nine, the mountain stage, and then the last week is also very mountain heavy. So it's going to be interesting, interesting to see, you know, my concern for Primoz is, is he going to be good enough already from the start to not lose time? You know, going off what we saw in the past, I'm quite confident that

he's going to be on a good, on a good level already straight away. Yeah. I mean, this is like the trend in grand tours now where you have to be good early, like from the start, cause there's mountain stages and then you have to be good through stage 21. Um, I like it. It's like more complete, complete racing. You could say, but let's say it's not Primoz. It's not Sepp Kuss.

Are there any wild cards you'd like to take this overall win? Well, there's not that many, but I, I mean, just to just personally, I think, you know, I don't see him winning a ground tour. You know, he could be up there, but one of the only guys I can really see being at the same level of those guys is Adam Yates. It depends how he has recovered from the Tour de France and how hungry he is. The challenge with Adam Yates is that, you know, he was on a super high level in

the Tour of Switzerland, the best rider there. Then he was good in the Tour, not as good as last year. So that's a bit, you know, like, okay, he's obviously part of the winning team and, you know, sacrificed all his chances, but he was not at the same level as when he was third. So I could, I could see him be in a position of winning the Vuelta, especially because it's an ideal terrain for him. Lots of steep climbs, which is his

favorite playground. He's plus 600. I agree. It is his favorite. If he dreamt a Grand Tour, it would be this. Plus 600. I like him more than Raleigh Meta who's plus 500, just because Almeida is this like diesel. He climbs incredibly fast, but he's often off the back. I don't see him getting a lot of bonus seconds because

of that. He's more like managing losses on explosive uphill finishes. The problem is this race is almost all explosive uphill finishes. That's going to help Adam Yates. Both of them. It's a little bit of a stretch just because of what I said, they were so good at Swiss, so good at the tour. Can they realistically stretch this?

If I had to pick one person on UA, it would probably be Yates, but I don't know how good I feel about that whole team. I just have a lot of questions, you know, in the years go down, like sending Enric Moss plus 800. I don't know. I don't know. It seems tough to imagine. And Rick Moss is usually, you know, like, especially when he's not great at the tour, he's on a higher level of a lot higher level in the Vuelta, but you know, to name it as a Vuelta winner, I think that's a stretch.

That's not going to happen. And then you have Mika Landa plus 1400. That's a little easier, but it's the same problem with the UA guys, you know, so good at the, so good at the tour. Can you realistically stretch that three more weeks through the Vuelta? That lands me on Danny Martinez, plus 1,800, plus 400 to podium. I, as a wildcard, I like him a lot.

And you ask yourself, but isn't he on Red Bull? How's he going to win with Primoz Roglic? You know, him winning, I think, comes from Primoz as a problem. Either Primoz is not fully recovered from his crash of the tour, or he crashes again at this Vuelta, which isn't impossible. He doesn't crash as much at the Vuelta as he does the rest of the year. He has a much better record here.

But if he has a problem, Danny Martinez, second at the Giro this year, I thought kind of flew under the radar, and he had some good results even before that Giro. Kind of thought we saw a new Danny Martinez. And I've liked him going going all the way back to you remember when Egan Bernal won the Giro I thought potentially he was even the strongest rider at that Giro but he was just fully committed to helping Bernal so plus 1800 to win plus 400 a podium and Spencer and Spencer you know we could perfectly see a scenario where Danny Martinez gets in the situation of Sepp Kuss last year. Yes.

You know, he gets in a breakaway. There's not this, you know, who's going to chase? It's going to have to be Wismar. Yeah. Right? And UAE. But can they do it? So, and Dani Martinez is a savvy rider.

You know, he's a racer. He was at a super high level at the Giro. You know, behind Mapogacar, he was the best of the rest and kept being the best from day one till the very end. So he's one of those riders who has prepared specifically for the Vuelta. We don't know. I don't think he has raced since. Maybe just this San Sebastian.

Well, he did the Olympics, 25th at the Olympics. Well, he did the Olympics 25th at the Olympics, but then he DNF at San Sebastian, which I don't, I don't know what happened there. I don't love to see that, but I'm going to assume he's not injured because I didn't hear anything about a battery crash. Okay. Yeah. That's a good one. I like that. And then if we think about, you know, like wildcard podiums, yeah. Start to think who could finish on this podium. That's not the people we just mentioned, you know, kind of one of the more interesting bets here I think is,

is Brandon McNulty plus 2,500 to finish on the podium on, on you look at it on paper you're like realistically can he beat he could even finish third in his own team in the gc because that team is so stacked you have guys like outside of almeida and yates you have like izak del toro who you could you could imagine finishing on the podium here he's that talented but johan explain to me how brand how Brandon McNulty finishes on the podium and how he emerges as one of UA's leaders. Is this possible? Yeah, it is. I think it's the same situation as we said about Danny Martinez

and Zed Kuz last year. Actually, Brandon McNulty, I would actually put him ahead of Danny Martinez for breakaway chances because he's not considered as Danny Martinez is considered as a co-leader. Brandon McNulty is not considered by the rest of his rivals, by the rest of the teams as the co-leader. So that's the advantage of UE. And that's,

that's what Brandon McNulty needs to look for, you know, like breakaways where, I mean, and where the big teams run out of men and that finally he gets two, three minutes before the mountains. Yeah. I mean, because no one's going to chase that. Or I mean, not no one, but the other GC teams won't say,

oh, we have to get on the front. It's the same thing we saw, exact same thing with Sepp Kuss last year. And the thing is, we talked about this on the move, going to be hot in this first week. Really hot. You know where Brandon McNulty's been all summer? He in phoenix arizona because that's where he's from and he's not been racing with uie so it's if you really want to like start reaching for reasons i i would go for that like the guy is not going to be rattled by these high 30s like celsius 100 degree fahrenheit days um i kind of like this

a lot for a wild card podium pick plus 2500 yeah that's a good one podium podium for bradley good good i'm buying it and so this takes us do we want to bet on i don't i don't fully i i hate to admit this i don't fully understand like the, the green Jersey at the vault. It's usually the GC winner that wins it. Right. I mean, already Spencer, if there's 12 mountain stages,

the points are for the climbers. So usually it's one of the guys who's up there. Although I think a few years ago, Matt Spenderson won it. Right. There's obviously more points for the non-mountain stages, but if there's 12 mountain stages already,

then, well, Von Aert is the candidate for the points jersey. He's an all-rounder. He's in great shape. He'll win a few stages. And then in some other stages, he can score. It depends on the development of the race.

And if there's a few breakaways in mountain stages where the top guys don't take the full amount of points, then it's possible. I agree. I worry about the breakaways. But here's just like the odds on FanDuel. Wout van Aert minus 125. I'm like, that's pretty steep. Yeah. Caden Groves plus 250. Don't pick Caden Groves. Primoz Roglic plus 650. That's,

that's pretty good price for he could win. It's him winning like five stages here and getting a lot of points. I would think about that. That's one that really stuck out to me that it's like, does Wout win this? Probably, but minus 225, that's a really steep price.

I would look at that Primoz Roglic plus 650 for the points jersey. Yeah. Before we talk about stage one, let's take a break to talk about this episode's sponsor, which is Factor Meals with the Vuelta a España coming up just tomorrow. What gets really tough for both Johan and I during that time is taking time to prepare healthy meals for ourselves. And that's where Factor Meals, their always fresh, never frozen meal kits are hugely, hugely helpful to us. I just got back from a few months in Europe.

I came home, nothing to eat. What was waiting for me at the front door? A whole bunch of factory meals. So that's been life-saving for me this week. I've just been tossing them into the microwave or you can do convection oven, warm them up. In just a few minutes. You go from no meal, no prospects of eating whatsoever to a nutritious meal with chef, chef crafted meals with options like calorie smart, protein plus, and keto. You can just go on their website. You pick exactly what you want. They deliver it straight to your door and their meals are all dietitian approved and ready to eat in just two minutes. So no matter how busy you are, and we are quite busy during these Grand Tours, you'll always have time to enjoy a nutritious, great tasting meal.

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and use code themove50 to get 50% off your first box plus 20% off your next month. Again, that's code the move 50, the move spelled out 50, which is the numbers five, zero at factor meals.com slash the move 50. And again, you'll get 50% off your first meal box plus 20% off your next month while your subscription is active. All right, let's get back to the episode. So that takes us to stage one. Flat time trial. Flat, pretty straightforward time trial in Lisbon, Portugal tomorrow.

They are doing it in the daylight this year, unlike last year where they did it after dark. So that gives us a cleaner sample. When I can find them, I will list off the odds. I'm I'm on the classifications. Let me get to the stages, but so stage one, hold on to your hats folks. Cause you're going to have sticker shock here. Josh Tarling, heavy, heavy favorite minus two 50. Wow. Then art plus Vine plus 1,400, Brandon McNulty plus 1,800, Stefan Kuhn plus 2,000, Primoz Roglic plus 2,500, Joao Meda plus 8,000, Matea Catania plus 8,000.

That's pretty wild, the guys that are that good at time trial and are that steep. But Johan, who do you think wins this very straightforward, very fast time trial? Joshua Tarling wins the time trial. Barring any problems, the huge power, ideal distance for him, pure specialist, and missed the Olympic gold medal

because of the mechanical. He's winning tomorrow. I have no doubt. I don't even know if this is allowed on outcomes. I'm picking them to minus minus two 50s. Actually, I found a minus two 40 on FanDuel. So there's your, there's your best price. Unless he, unless he, I know they do it along the water.

Maybe he falls into the ocean. That's the only way he doesn't win this. I am also picking Tarling. I the only way he doesn't win this. I am also picking Tarling. I will say if he doesn't win, I'm also trying to find a podium on someone's got to finish on the podium. Yeah. Another candidate is, is, is what Bernard, you know, bronze medal in the Olympics. It wouldn't have been a bronze medal for, for, for, uh, well, if darling doesn't have the mechanical because at a minimum darling gets the bronze, but I think he would have a lot of the gold.

Um, but anyway, he's in great shape and it seems to me like the form of what one art is in crescendo it's, but it's getting better after the two or S um ideals, I also ideal course for, well, you know, huge power, uh, ideal distance. Um, if darling doesn't win it's worked. Yeah. It's big power. He's plus three 40 on fit on DraftKings. That's the best price I could find. It's big power. They're going to do it in like 13 minutes, 12 kilometers, 13 minutes, which is wild. I mean, you have to be, there's not many riders. Let's say for, let's say 14 minutes, 14 minutes, 13 minutes, not many riders. It's on the tread. They're just doing 60 K an hour the whole time,

but they probably will do 55, 56 K an hour. Depends on the wind. So it depends, depends on the wind also. Yes, it does. I mean, if it's, if it's tailwind, holy smokes, that would be fast. But for outside of Tarling, outside of in our one rider, I like maybe not so much for the wind, but for the podium. So Stefan Kuhn plus 2000 for the wind plus two 50 for the podium. Someone has to finish third in this time trial it's not it's a little

short maybe for kung especially at this point in his career but you look at who can you know it's going to be like a 500 watt effort for that amount of time it's not many riders who can do that i like kung to finish third yeah yeah i think the top four in my opinion is Darling, Wout Koum for sure and Primoz Primoz is plus 400 for the podium plus 2500 for the win I would do plus 400 for the podium for Primoz

is a good one he's going to be up there yeah I agree he is very very used usually he comes in hot, especially when it's a time trial. Yeah. I mean, the only rider that comes in hotter

is Remco Evenepoel, and he's not here. Yeah. Yeah, I'd say that's your two podium picks. Kuhn plus 250, Primoz Roglic plus 400. Almeida will be up there. I would just guess fifth, but I don't know if he's going to finish on the podium. And I don't even think it's worth plus 8,000 for the win.

It would have to be, maybe the Portuguese prime minister comes out and like motor paces him to a win here. But unless that happens, I don't know if I would go that far even. So a few stage one head-to-heads that I found interesting, Johan. This is on FanDuel in the US

Primoz Roglic minus 164 plus 120 I think Primoz I agree I think that's almost underpriced so number two Sepp Kuss minus 136

Enric Mas plus 102. Remember, this is stage one for the overall. Sepp Kuss. Sepp Kuss. Wow. I mean, you could see, you could imagine Mas putting up a stinker here. I mean, I think it's very simple. The logic behind it is that

Enric Mas has not raced since the tour. He's going to ride himself into the Vuelta again and Sepp Kuss comes in hot of Burgos with competition in the legs. They're both not great time trialists, but I think Sepp Kuss gets this one.

Well, I'm looking at stage four of Burgos, which was recent. It was a 18.5 kilometer time trial. Sepkus finishes just 43 seconds back. So that's pretty good, actually, for a rider like him. So Adam Yates, minus 116. Carlos Rodriguez, minus 116.

Kind of like Yates here. Yeah, dude. Yates. Yeah. Danny Martinez, minus 116. Isaac Del martinez minus 116 isak del toro minus 116 the reason it's like this is the book is taking a cut it's actually not fantastic when they do this yeah yeah but danny martinez i agree i agree i mean well i guess to play devil's advocate, does Del Toro come out and just smoke this? Now I'm kind of worried about that.

But Martinez, as you say, he can defend himself in a time trial. He's pretty good. Yeah. Yeah. Mateus Shkanoza, minus 116. Antonio Tiberi, minus 116. Tiberi was very good at this Euro. Yeah.

Mm-hmm. very good at the Giro. Yeah. Yeah, I think Tiberi. Listen, Skelmosa did a great time trial in Tour of Switzerland. The last one, it was uphill though. Because of the terrain, I think Tiberi.

Okay. He has more power. Do we even want to take a stab at King of the Mountains? No. It's just going to be so distorted because of the way. Yeah, I would sit. And the thing about sports betting, A, only bet what you can you can lose but b you don't have to bet right now you can sit and wait you obviously have to bet for stage one right now but in terms of the overall you can sit and wait like

we saw like the binium uh green jersey bet at the tour like you could have done that after eight stages and still made very good money so you always choose to keep your powder dry johan do you have anything else to add before we take off no that's it for me all right well thank you so much and we'll be back tomorrow to predict stage two okay thanks spencer oh