THEMOVE - Are UAE Proving You Don't Need a GC Leader? | Giro d'Italia 2026 | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 16, 2026

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jhonatan Narváez's win on a fast and furious Giro stage, which saw an elite breakaway go clear after an hour+ long battle to get in the move. They discuss how the win highlights Narváez's often underrated ability, and how UAE losing their GC leader, Adam Yates, has allowed them to flex the near-absurd strength and depth of their squad. They also revisit the power numbers behind yesterday's summit finish, how they show the evolution of the sport over the last few years, and what they expect to happen at tomorrow's summit finish. Listen in to see what the duo thinks of the stage, how the action will play out tomorrow, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team  

So imagine Spencer. So we're, you know, we're one week in the GERA. So it's stage eight, but it's basically week one is finished. Yeah. You know, having one three stages, man, nothing has to happen. There's absolutely no pressure. It's going to be so much fun those two next weeks for them. Like they're just going to chill.

And whenever there's, you know, a chance, they'll go for it. If it doesn't work, no problem. No stress. no pressure. And that's usually when a team outperforms the expectations and everything seems to work. This is not the last stage in the UAE, I'm going to predict. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with the Johan at Brunel. We are breaking out stage eight of the GERDotario, won by Jonathan Narvaeis on UAE Team Emirates, over Andreas Lechnitsen from UnoX, mobility out of a breakaway that took a very long time.

if you just looked at the results of the stage, it does not do the stage justice. It took a very long time for this breakaway to go. Narvaeus went up the road with his teammate Mikkelberg. They were joined by Leckinson after pretty much, what is it, like 80, 90K of all-out racing, into a headwind along the coast. They get away. It's pretty impressive. They turn inland.

They blow out the gap once they start climbing. A chase group is behind them. The GC teams finally shut things down. I mean, I imagine they were really looking forward to turning inland and getting to the climbs. And the chase group, it was pretty strong. How a lot of riders with teammates, but they didn't really make a lot of headway. Narvaeus wins over Leibnson with an UnoX rider. What's his name, Johan?

Okay, we did some research on this to not to make sure to not butcher this, right? So apparently it's Martin Chotta, Chotta. Coming in. I had never heard of the guy. Never heard of the guy. But first year on UnoX comes over from Archaia. Yeah. Good, good performance.

Yeah, and good pickup by UnoX. Finishing ahead of, I mean, they were 42, he finishes 42 seconds behind Navaraz, which is basically the gap when the climbing started, which shows you how strong Narvaas was. Thomas Silva, Guillermo, Thomas Silva, the guy who had the leader's jersey finishes fourth, way better climber than we thought. Lorenzo Melese, your pick for the stage finishes. Fifth.

And in the G.C. group, there was a split mid-stage where Jonas Vinegard was caught out, but his Vizma team easily welded that back together. And then you could tell the GC teams were nervous because it was really, you know, it's in the Marque region of Italy. It's just a lot of, like, every town is on top of the steepest hill you could possibly imagine. And the roads are very narrow. So the GC teams were at the front. Jai Hint, they had Sepkus pushing the page.

in the last few K, the climbs were steep, like 22%. I assume as a defensive mechanism to keep people from attacking. Jai Henley attacks is followed by Yonis, who looks incredible today. I mean, there was like no hesitation from Yonis. And they get a two second gap over the G.C. group, which is significant because Jai Henley was pushing that. And his teammate, Giulio Pellizari, was kind of near the back of the G.C. group. Now, loses two seconds to Yonis.

They're like, well, that's kind of weird. Why would that happen? And then Phyllis Gahl, yesterday's climbing extraordinary. I was curious to watch him today, Johan, on these clines. They are not his type of climbs, and he was at the back. I wonder if Vizma will notice that and think, hmm, that maybe that's something we can exploit later on. But what did you think about the stage? And then what did you think about that kind of strange decision from Red Bull at the end?

Yeah. Well, I mean, I think where the stage was a little bit as we expected, right? Narvaise yesterday when we recorded last yesterday's podcast we didn't have the odds yet for the stage winners

but Narvaise was the heavy favorite and I think it's logical I think the only unknown factor was how does Narvaise get in the break but he did he did so once once that three three man breakaway

was established he was the heavy favorite you know it's one of those moves Spencer like I'm sure you know but first of all the first two hours apparently they average 51 kilometers per hour for the first two hours like a 20 kilometer an hour insane yeah insane so it's kind of logical that the breakaway didn't go I mean how fast you have to go 60 to go get away so but then finally you know with 76 kilometers to go. These three guys get clear. And it's one of those moves, you know, when you, when you're in the car,

and you hear, okay, and you first of all, you see the chaos and the attack after attack after attack, you kind of feel the moment when the riders are running out of legs. And then you, you hear those three, three names on the radio. Jonathan Nervice, Mikiel Bjerk, Anderslcknigson, said, okay, that's game over. Now, these are three huge engines. there is nothing the Peloton can do to get those guys back. And that was the case. You know, I mean, they just stayed out there always with a minute on afterwards a 40 rider group with some really strong riders in there.

Of course, it's a big group, so very difficult to get it organized, but still. I mean, and then from the moment these three guys were away, I think it was clear, even to Lechnisant, I would say, that Narvaise was going to win this stage. Narvaise was extremely praising his teammate Mikkel Björk. He called him the man of the race, which I think is true. And yeah, I mean, with those steep walls at the end, man, and it was 12, 13, sometimes 20%. This is Narvaise terrain.

And there was nothing to be done against him today. Second stage win for him in this Giro. Third stage win for UAE, since they are down to five riders. Third, since since they get back to Italy. So that's four stages, stage, or I guess five, stage four, five, six, seven, eight. They've won three of them. Yeah. And then also fourth stage winning his career in the Gero already.

We just went back to 2000. What was it? 2020 when he won him out. Yeah. Embarrassingly yesterday, I don't know what happened. I had a stroke or something. I said, I don't know if he's a good enough climber to win in this finish. Yeah.

And then I go back this morning and he wins a $4,000. meter climbing mountain stage with the 2020 tour over Mark Padun. And then we remember 2024 when he won stage one against the Pulitzer, who was trying to win the stage. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, impressive, impressive form. Even more impressive, but also at the same time, you can see, listen, Narvice is on a high, has been inactive, you know, all the, the whole season, basically, because.

he had this bad crash in Down Under, has prepared well, but obviously it's fresh, you know, super motivated, full of energy. He's not race tired, right? And I think we're going to, we're going to see more of him. I mean, he actually said in his interview, you know, he didn't talk about himself, but about the team that they're not done, that they will win more stages. That's what I at least could, you know, understand between the lines. Yeah, and then about Red Bull Spencer and about Jay Hindley, I'm kind of thinking, you know, could it be, I mean, first of all, you would say, okay, Jay Hindley does his job, you know, brings in the group and it's up to the leader to hold his wheel.

You know, that's, and if, if Peligari is the leader, he has to, you know, make sure that he can hold the wheel of his, you know, best helper. could it be that Jay Hindley wants to make a statement and say, okay, I'm also a protected rider here. I won this race. That could be one explanation. I'm kind of tempted to say it's another reason. And the explanation behind Jay Hindley's, you know, upping the tempo and bringing it to the finish as fast as possible,

is probably that he got word that Felix Gaul was in trouble in the back of that group. And then finally, so they got a little gap and gall was in the back, but didn't get gaped off time-wise. But I think that's probably the explanation if I'm just looking at it behind my screen. Just so we have plausible deniability, I'll just do this. If I was a 30-year-old Australian who had won this race recently and everyone was gushing about my 22-year-old Italian teammate. and I had a chance to, yeah, to accelerate while putting our rival into difficulty,

but then also gaping my teammate for the second day in a row. I probably would because I'd be so sick of hearing about this kid. Like, I won the race. This guy, oh, you're on mute, Johan. He got six last year. I won it. Like, what are we talking about? This, Spencer, I don't think, I don't think that's true.

Honestly, I don't think. I think both yesterday and today, today could be that we'll also remember I'm just saying that's how I would feel we're not saying that's how Chai Hitha feels yeah yeah um god was in trouble so you know try to see if we can get some time and yesterday listen he was they're all dead he just wants to get as soon as possible as close as possible to the finish and again it's up to the leader to hold the wheel of your

gregario you know but I don't think any of those two situations were deliberate from Jay Hindley against the situation and against Belizadez. I don't think so. Remember and also like we're behind. We don't have the way. I can't wait for you man. We are losing time to Jonas. We've got to go. But remember it was the same team where you're like we're saying oh they probably wouldn't be fighting over this and they had a rider leave because of a seventh and eighth place overall dispute.

So there is precedent for infighting. That's, that was Vlasov and Euttebrugs. Yeah. Where if you were directing, like, what are we doing? Like, guys, try to move up, maybe both of you move up the standings. Don't fight over seventh place. But the stage, I just opens up a lot to talk about with A. Nervius, it better. Obviously, he's a great rider.

He's won two stages of this race. just going back through his Palmyra is better writer than I feel like he gets credit for. He's won multiple overalls. So he won tour down under in 2025, which you have to be a pretty good climber because there's Walunga Hill. Then we realize he's won tour of Austria

in 2023 and won three stages. You have to be, yeah, okay, to win tour of Austria. If, I mean, I don't, we would have to look back, but if there was not a cancellation of any of the big mountain stages, to win tour of all.

Austria, you have to be able to climb. I mean, otherwise, too, of Austria, there's no way. You can't win this. It's a hard race. And, I mean, maybe there was, like, maybe they didn't have high alpine, but you're climbing all. I'm just looking at it now. Like, you're climbing quite a bit on all these stages.

There's almost always, I mean, from off the top of my mind, there's always always the gloss, the gross glockner or something similar, which is a monster of a climb in that race. So I don't know in 2023 what the course was, but I can tell you one thing. Without looking at it, it was not flat. It was mountains for sure. And so Navias wins his second stage. Well, probably went more to be on. I think it was plus 600 before the start of the stage.

I thought, you know, I'm not going to bet on him because how do I know that he's going to be in the move? And you know, it's interesting, Johan. There was many, many breakaways that did not make it today. Do you know how many breakaways Narvaeus was in today? One. And he was in the one. Well, two, two.

First one with the tree and then he created his own breakaway alone. But he didn't jump in, he didn't waste any energy jumping into a move that didn't come to fruition. And if you just go back and. Yeah, Spencer, but he was already, I mean, he was, he was already in the 40 man group that got clear because the breakaway got away from. Yes, right? Before or at the moment they got real back in, the three guys got clear from those 40 guys. But just to give you an idea, Spencer, on how hard this was on these three guys, because, you know, as you said, it was headwind all the time. So the last 76.5 kilometers, which is the moment those three guys got away, Narvaise average power over 76.5 kilometers is 330 watts average.

And that includes flats and downhills, right? So, man, it was hard for those three guys to stay away. Yeah, because nobody of the three guys skipped a turn. You know, they were going for it. I mean, every time in the last, when he attacked Lechminton, if they showed his power on screen, it was 3.30 or above because he was climbing the whole time. I mean, that's hard to do. I mean, it's hard to, because you could be listening to this and say,

I can go average 330 for 76K. It's like, well, you got to remember, even outside of the fact that you're in a grand tour, this was two hours, an hour and a half into an all-out rate. right so like he's presumably spencer okay so he's 65 kilos so you know it's it's it's about five watts per kilo um they okay i'm gonna you know gonna there's not many people listening to this podcast who can do that there's a few maybe well there's a lot of like when they're when they're fresh there's not many that are 65 kilos there's probably none exactly 65 kilos yeah 55 kilos and 330 watts that yeah okay yeah that's i should have made it's a

A lot of gravel bros that could probably go out and rip 3.30 for 70Ks, but they're like 80 to 90 kilograms. It makes a difference. And then now I've lost my train of thought. But Narvius, good, strong. And then I was just impressed with, he sees Bergberg go. I mean, kudos to that guy. Like they had a plan and they knew what they were doing. And he kind of roll.

He doesn't see anyone react. He rolls around. Legninson's behind him, follows him. Leckninson barely gets across. That's how fast Bierg was already going when Norbias got up there. And I mean, the gaps are, if you watch this moment, the gaps are small and nobody can pull them back. It is just they're gone before anyone can do anything.

It also probably helps. There's three Uber fast aerobikes up the road. They all have arrow helmets on. They're all in skin suits. That definitely helps. Like today I thought. Yeah, but so were the guys in the back. Yeah.

I mean, but the arrow bikes. The Colanooga bike is very fast. Yeah. Okay. Let's not over hype it, Spencer. I think the main reason why they stayed away because it's three huge engines who collaborated perfectly. And then on top of that, you know, a group of 30, 40 riders is difficult to organize.

Plus, let's not forget that these guys who were in front had teammates there. You know, there was a few, you know, ex-guides. There was two other. So Areeta was also there and young Kristen. So four of the five UAE riders were in the break. So obviously, you know, they were disturbing. And, you know, once they start to attack, no. I mean, we saw Javier Romo attack when they had 50 seconds.

There's nothing you can do. Nothing. You can be as strong as you want against these three riders. There was no way they were coming back. And I mean, on the on the bike, I'm not trying to hype it up and get people to go buy it. I went to that camp and I came away thinking this is a problem that the sport has because UAE is essentially combined with Colanooga.

The team and the bike brand are basically the same. And they can say we want this with the bike in Colenago goes away and does that. And I was thinking, man, like this is going to be an issue because they're going to have a significantly faster bike than other teams. And on top of that, what we're seeing in this race, the team one through 30 is very good. Like they might have this. There's these five guys left in the race. Could be five of the strongest riders left in the race.

I mean, they're, we normally wouldn't notice it because they'd be riding for Adam Yeats. But with Adam Yeats gone, we're seeing, I'm not saying, I mean, I kind of am saying it's,

it's impressive and a problem at the same time. Because you're just having these, all these riders pool onto one team. Yeah. That's a strong, I mean, it's the strongest team in the world. There's no doubt about it.

You know, they are in first. position on all levels, you know, in terms of the points, the amount of victories. Yeah. Every one of the riders could win a stage at this race. Yeah. And they're starting to do that. By the way, they're starting to become kind of the same with the women's team now.

Also, you know, they just won the Tour of Spain, La Valta Spagna for women. So, so yeah. But yeah, listen, UAE is the best team. it's the benchmark for a lot of teams, I think. There are teams trying to get closer. I don't know if you saw, do you know who is second best team right now? In the world?

In rankings, like points or wins? Yeah, rankings. I'm going to say Sudol, quick step, but just because I, who is it? Red Bull. Red Bull. They stepped up. They stepped up. Well, do you know what they have?

Visma is now in fourth. I think the last time I checked. I checked a few days ago. Red Bull's in second and Visma's now and fourth. I don't know where it's $2. But do you know what? Rebel has a lot of money. You know what?

Visma doesn't have as much of money. Exactly. Okay. I'm not some. I know. It's like I just, I start to worry. But we should say like before we slam you A.E.

I was thinking about like in the post race show on T&T sports, they're saying, oh, they buy all the best riders. It's not necessarily true. Like they get a lot of riders. I don't think people were clamoring for Jonathan Arvon. They just get a lot of riders that are good and they develop them well. Yeah. So yeah.

Plus, you know, once you are part of a winning team, you up your game. You know, we, we, there are some signings that they did, you know, like, Bernouacosne for. Yes, exactly. He's been, he's been, you know, not very present the last few years. Look at him now. And he said he didn't have any other options. Yeah.

So, so, so yeah. Winning is contagious, man. very contagious yeah and yeah it just so it i'm trying to balance the fact that i'm like oh this is this is is a little weird watching one team have so many good riders but partially it's because they make good riders um nervius very good uae very good how many more wins do they get at this race joan listen i mean it's like you know i'm going to call back to my statement of some teams and say yeah you know we want to win some stages i always say try to win one stage in the ground two or first they have three already.

This is not the end. Three and five days. We have young Kristen still needs to win a stage. So, and then who else do we have? Michael Bjerk probably won't win a stage or won't because he's second. And then who else is there? Actually, I think the writer who won't win a stage and I'm very surprised by this is

Antonio Morgato. It's not. Amorgado. Yeah, he's not been, yeah, okay. We don't know what kind of work he's doing, you know, but hey, don't count him out. He's probably the most talented writer on that team. He's very strong.

He's very strong. Yeah. This is a guy who he top five at Flanders as a teenager. I'm not sure anyone else in the sport has ever done that before. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe not. That is pretty impressive.

And he's the odd man out on this team. Here's a next question. Is this better, is the crash on stage two making this a better zero for UAE? I mean, obviously for those riders who get opportunities, I would say they would definitely have preferred not have that crash and, you know, do a normal Gero. I think Narvaise would still have had his opportunities to win these stages with their leaders still around. Areta maybe not. Arieta probably would have been more on team duty. but listen it's great opportunities and they're taking every chance they get so you know how fast it can

change you know like from from day two being like okay you're in the corner where you know you're hurt obviously the morale must have been horrible losing these three guys in one go two days later everything turns around and since then they won three times that I mean it's a small dinner table, but it must be a lot of fun to sit at that table tonight and the other days. Yeah. And also is kind of a funny, like, living thought experiment where they could be racing like this with Adam Yates. And I would be crushed. I would be like, what are they doing? They're wasting so much energy. But there's actually, if you think about it, there's no rule that says you can't send these guys up the road to win stages while you have a GC threat in the team.

But they probably would be racing differently if they still have. So imagine Spencer. So we're, you know, we're one week in the jera. So it's stage eight, but it's basically week one is finished. Yeah. You know, having won three stages, man, nothing has to happen. There's absolutely no pressure. It's going to be so much fun those two next weeks for them. Like, they're just going to chill.

And whenever there's, you know, a chance, they'll go for it. If it doesn't work, no, no problem. No stress, no pressure. And that's usually when a team outperforms the expectations and everything seems to work. This is not the last stage in of UAE, I'm going to predict. I think they could get two more, probably realistically. And there's teams here, like Team Picnic Post-N-L. Not only do they not have a stage one, they are struggling to get into the breakaways.

Like they weren't even in that chase group today. Yeah, Spencer, I mean, you know I'm not a fan of that team. but man, that's a bad team, dude. It's, it's, it's, it's, you know, it's a bad team. Like, you know, I went through, I went through the list of names. Half of them I don't know. Maybe that's because I'm getting old. But usually, I mean, I'm staying up to date with most of the riders.

So it's probably because I have not, not seen them in results. And then, you know, if you look at the ranking, Spencer, they're outside. I mean, they're world two or so. They're top 18. one of the top 18 teams and they're not in the top 30 all the teams combined and then you just said that if they would be in the pro team classification you know where normally you have to yeah the second division you have to qualify in the top three to have an automatic invitation they're 11 in the second division so actually think there's 11 in front of them so they'd be ranked 12

really bad really bad really bad no that's not a good team that means so they have a one year license right now they didn't get a three year license because we don't really know why but they were just granted a one year license that's unusual if they don't have a world tour license next year they won't be eligible at right now they won't be eligible to race and grant tours because they won't be in the top 30 and they that's not good at all and you know i was thinking like man why aren't they get in these breakaways you know pultes up there bardiani's up there and you go back and you watch this break formations, Warren Bargiel's, he's trying. He's trying his hardest, you know? Like, they're just not as strong as Pulte and Bardiani right now. Yeah. Yeah. Which is, I mean, actually, those teams, I don't feel like get enough love. Those are, those teams are very good at what they do.

And people kind of think like, oh, they're just out there for the TV time. But they come into these races with a focus. And as we're seeing with, who was that guy, Paganzoli yesterday? Just comes from Pulti. And he's on Vizma. He's one of their most important riders at this race. I did a little bit of research I mean I did a little bit of research yesterday

on Big Gonzoli. So I saw an interview. He saw me, he looks so young. He looks like a school kid. You know, I said, you know, where do I know this name from? You know, so I don't remember which year. So 2025, 24, probably I don't have

2023 or 24, probably 23. Or 24. When did Del Toro win the Tour de Tour de lavene? Was that 2024 or 2023? I think it was 2024. Okay. So 2, 11 year. Deltoto wins.

Second, Giulio Pellizari. Third. Interesting. How? Pretty good. Just top three. Wait, I was, I was wrong.

Of course, I was wrong because we always underestimate how much time is passed as we get older. It was 23 where he won tour to LaVernere. I feel like that just happened. Okay. Yeah. Okay, 23. How does that happen, Johan? So those top two guys are huge sought after talents.

And then fourth was Matthew Ricotelo, who was on a top team at the time. Pelizari also didn't go straight away to a big team. He was on Bardiani. First year. Why don't, not to oversimplify this. Why don't teams just, because there's always so much clamoring for the guy who wins to her to Labanier? Why don't they just say, you know, who's second, who's third?

maybe we should sign those guys. I think probably, I mean, most likely because those, like, I'm going to say probably, I mean, I may be wrong, but I think that probably Belizari and Paganzoli before the Tour de Avenir already had a deal with those teams. Yeah. Yeah, that's a good point. Yeah. Probably.

Probably. Just break the contracts. Who cares? And Del Toro was on a, Dorado was on this Argentinian team, but he was already scouted by, I mean, he was already on a call. when he won two 11 years. So there was already a deal in place before he won. But he's on this team, AAR Monix.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Very good program. They've actually reached out. Because we, I don't know,

I was like, who is a small team? They listen to our podcast, by the way. I'm getting messages from the management now and then with information about new, uh, Mexican talents. So,

uh, interesting to follow that team. And really good organization. I think they, you know, if my memory is correct, there's, there has been, maybe still is, there's a big problem with the Mexican Federation. I think the problem was it didn't exist. For corruption and stuff like that.

And so basically that program, it's a private initiative, has kept the Mexican youth and talent detection alive. And look, the result is there. Yeah, it is a super impressive program. I mean, not to dwell too much on this, but 2023, Tudor-11ner. Deltora wins, Pellazzari's second, Paganzoli's third, Rick Catello's fourth, he was a full-time pro at the time. Sixth, Mattis, Mattes Rondell, who is riding really well at this race. Seventh, Jan Kristen.

And then ninth, Jonas Colset, who's also doing well at this race. Interesting. I mean, usually, Tudor 11neur is a pretty good indicator of the talent. What are these teams doing? Just go to Lavigneur and start writing. signing contracts with writers. But yes, UIE, they're going to do well. Do you know what I thought was interesting

watching the early parts of the stage and a team that things are not going well for? Little Trek, trying very hard to get in the breakaway. Milan tried, which is a good idea, but Marnier was too smart, was marking them out. But I saw Chaconay trying to get in the move. Again, I thought, well, why, what's happening here? Why did?

Well, I mean, he had to try. He had to try. he's going to get in moves from now on because I saw that today he he lost a lot of time. He's now down in G.C. Okay. So I think that at the end, he probably didn't insist and lost the time because he sees that obviously it makes no sense to fight for G.C. Maybe he's just a really good teammate. He thought it's windy.

I don't want to leave Derek G up here by himself on stage seven. We can't rule that out. Well, let's take a quick break. Then we're going to talk about a few, some of the numbers from yesterday's stage and then preview stage nine. So we'll be right back. All right, Johan, we are back. We've got company. We've got Bobby in the frame.

Yeah, people are happy. Bobby's back. Bobby was complaining. Bobby was complaining that he was not getting enough attention and he wanted to be on the show. Probably he's going to give his opinion about tomorrow stage, who he thinks is going to win and how he thinks is going to play out. but yeah, here he is. Hey, Bobby. Hey, Bobby.

You're okay? Are you all right? The number one thing people stop me in real life and talk to me about is the fact that I'm insane for thinking Paul Six Oz can win the Twitter friends. Number two, a close number two is Bobby. Bobby is the talk of the town. People love Bobby. But so tomorrow we have, it's a really, at first I did not like the design of this

zero and now it is, I'm getting in the groove. We have an uphill finish, but there's a, And it's just a, it's a Unopuerto climb, as they would say. De Vuelta, that's just flat along the, the Po Valley. And then we go up a huge climb. That's stage nine. But quickly, Johan, before we preview that, I want to talk about some numbers that you pulled from yesterday's stage seven.

Really tough uphill finish at Blockhouse. Do you want to intro this graphic that we're about to put up? Yes. So I saw this today. So there's a comparison. We talked already about that yesterday a little bit. You did your own calculations about the last four kilometers and how much Felix Gall pulled back on Jonas.

So if we look at this graph here, you know, we see the comparison between Felix Gall to the left and Jonas on the right. And this is the last four kilometers, 8.17% of steepness. Felix Gall did it in 12 minutes. and Jonas in 12 minutes 11. So we see the speed comparison. And then so the estimated power of Felix Gall is 6.34 watts per kilo over those last four kilometers and Jonas 6.29.

So it shows that Felix Gall was stronger. And I just want to put that out there to, you know, give a little bit of hope. As I said yesterday, you know, I don't think it's going to matter. but Felix Gall was really strong yesterday and also I think Jonas platoed a little bit, plateaued a little bit and got to his limit. I don't know if he really was pushing it all the way. I also say it probably won't matter because today already we saw the price being paid of yesterday's effort, Felix Gall, in the end, was in trouble on those steep climbs.

and Jonas was in the front and responding to the attacks of Elalio. And that's why Jonas is going to win the Giro and not Felix Gall. Because you need to be there every single day. While I'm talking, Bobby's falling asleep here. Bobby, you can't do that. That's not respectful. That's how he feels about this goal, Jonas rivalry. He doesn't think it's a real, it's not a real rivalry.

I mean, Felix Gall is, he's an incredible climber. Is he there every day? That's probably not totally what he's known for. Yeah. Well, also, Spencer, I think today's, today's course, the final was probably not his favorite terrain, you know, it's different efforts. Felix Gall is more of a diesel who's, you know, can maintain a very high pace for a long time and this is more explosive.

But listen, if you want to be in front and even if you want to be on the podium, you need to be there every single day, you know, I'm just going back to. I think Valta Catalonia, you know, where Gaul was really good. He was close to Jonas or the closest in the two mountain top finishes and then lost time in the downhill on one of the stages when Ramco pushed it. You know, if you want to be a grand tour, podium rider, and I'm not saying he's not being on the podium, most likely, if you look at his strength and his fitness, he's most likely going to be on the podium.

but it's not a guarantee. And I think it's almost a guarantee that Jonas is going to be on the podium and win this zero. That's the difference. Yeah. I mean, I do think I agree with you. But after the show yesterday and then I looked at the course, I did wonder, were we a little too hard on Phyllis Gull because stage 10 is the first and last time trial. And then basically from stage 14 on, it is perfect Phelisgall terrain.

So, you know, yesterday was not even really particularly a good, that's not even what he's good at. You know, we're going to get into the Dolomites, into the Alps, these multi-mountain stages and they're higher. That's kind of what he's better at than what we saw on stage seven. So I just did wonder like, hmm, is this maybe a better course for him than we thought? But we shouldn't mention the fact that at Catalonia, he was in second overall and then Remko dropped him on a descent and then Visma could exploit that.

Yeah, that wasn't a great showing. Maybe he's learned, though, from that. And he's ready to go for the third. Yeah, well, I think thanks to that, was Lipowitz in second then? Yeah. Thanks to that. Yes. Yeah, Lipowitz.

Man, repels got a lot of good writers. Yeah. That's a good team. Yeah. And then another thing, Spencer, I mean, I just wanted to, you know, show with the numbers what we kind of, you know, were guessing yesterday based on, based on the time that he got back. And, you know, just say, okay, it was a good win of. as yesterday, but it was not as dominant as we feared was going to happen, which is good news for

everybody, right? Then another thing I saw today, Spencer, which is quite telling. We've said already many times, you know, the level keeps going up and up and up in pro cycling. I saw this quote here of Egan Bernal. He said in an interview. So yesterday, Eganbernau lost three minutes, right? So he said, okay, I mean it's difficult. I don't want to talk too much about numbers because in the end I did lose three minutes today. But at the same time, I think I did my best 40 minutes ever. And he was three minutes down. And this is a double ground tour winner to the France winner, Gero winner. Uh, Egham Bernal right now, most likely, if not sure, has a lot higher level than when he won the tour and the Gero. And he's not a number now. And he's not a lot of the year. And he's not a lot of

not even close to being a contender now to win or the podium. So that's what it means, what we mean by every year the level gets higher and higher. I've heard some numbers from people within the Peloton that you could roughly say at least 1% or 1.5% increase in level and performance every year. You know, take that over three years. That's almost 5% faster. Yeah. That's a lot.

Yeah. And, you know, if you're, if you're three years without improving, you're dropping. I mean, and that's what, there's so many riders are like, what happened to that guy? It's because they're not, they're not getting worse. They're just not getting better at the rate they need to. Exactly. Well, they're not getting, they do get better, but they're not getting better enough to keep up with the improvement of the whole Panetta. Yeah.

I mean, here's, here's just a hard example we have. So Derek G. publishes his power. Thank you, Derek. Derek G. West. Thank you so much for doing this. 2024 tour de France obviously these are different races different race situations but plato de by is a long climb he did it in 45 minutes 411 watts yesterday for 40 minutes so roughly the same time 433 watts you know and he's off the back he's getting better and he's off the back you know like that that's he lost what one minute 40 it's pretty good actually but how much did he lose a plateau de bay well he's going against teddy gotcha How much did he was on Jonas? He lost about five minutes on Jonas.

Oh, wow. Okay. And then yesterday I had Jonas just trying to calculate the headwind and how much that was adding to his power. I had him at 6.5 watts per kilo, which is pretty good for 38 minutes. That's very good. And then I team like teams, they have real power from their riders. And then they have these complex tools, these sophisticated tools to try to forecast

what the leaders are doing, and they had them at 6.5 too. So, I mean, that is a strong effort in the fact that Felix Gall was there and then Jai Henley and Pellizari aren't losing time in the last 4K shows you that the level is very high at the Gero. It's not

a cakewalk, even though I do agree with you that Jonas is probably going to win. Yeah. Yeah, I also think, Spencer, that Jonas right now is not at his max. He's really good. But he knows that the tour is coming.

And he also knows that if he's 90%, he can also win the Gero. It doesn't need to be super, super dominant to win this Gero, given the rivals he's facing. Yeah. And actually, where he was really good last year and you don't remember it because someone else was way better was the Dofinae. She's putting out incredible power numbers at the Dofini last year. So he probably has a level to go up. I mean, this is a tough. I think that I say this in the show yesterday?

like this is not a normal thing just to be like oh i'm going to do the tour and the gero combined gc we used to think winning the double was impossible in the modern era until 2024 you know frum did it in 2018 and he did win the tour do milan did it he didn't win the tour like it it is a very hard thing to do so i'm sure they're trying to calculate what he needs to be at to try to do it and you can't be the rest of both races same time i'm i'm i'm i'm a bit a bit skeptical with that way of thinking because that's theory. You know, you can say, okay, I'm not at my maximum. I still have a level to go up to be at the tour.

And you know what? That level never comes. You know, it sometimes happens that you say, okay, well, you know, I'm not maximum. You know, forms is not, it's not that predictable. You know, sometimes you, you get in a really good shape without having a real explanation because you didn't do anything special to be in that good shape. And other times you try, try, try, and it just doesn't come. You know, so I'm not saying that going to be the case with Jonas, but it's not a guarantee,

you know, it's not a guarantee that all of a sudden he's going to have an increase of, you know, another 5% better by the tour. That's, that's not, that's not a guarantee. Yeah, it's a really good point. And I think a lot of times people focus on the input, you know, so I do X training and I get Y fit. But what they don't, but they kind of underestimate is like, how is your body reacting internally? How are you resting? All of this affects the first.

the form that you end up with and people just tend to focus on the input a lot. So, but tomorrow, stage nine, this year I was getting serious. These are tough stages back to back to back to back. So stage nine, uphill finish. It goes along. They started the coast in Serbia. And if you've ever been to the Po Valley, I'm from Kansas and it is about as flat as Kansas. There's not a lot of hills.

So it's just flat. There's a little kicker, 3K at 5%. They go through Bologna and then they turn. toward the Appanine Mountains and they go up. It's basically climbs from the last, like the last 70K basically are all uphill in some respect. But the final climb is officially 11K long at 6.8% average. So 6%. It's get steeper at the end though.

Johan, how is this going to play out? It's kind of a tricky stage. If you want to be in the breakaway, if you want to control it, it's also tricky. Yeah, I'm not sure, Spencer. You know, it's 184 kilometers mountain top finish. It's a category one climb. You know, I think, I think if you look at the overall profile, it's deceivingly easy, but the last part, the last part is the last three kilometers.

I think it's around 11%, some sections at 13% even. Can be a breakaway, can be a GC day. I think independently, if it's a breakaway or not, we are going to see a battle and differences in the GC. there's going to be a race of the main favorites, whether there is a breakaway in front or not. So breakaway is difficult to predict, of course. We don't know.

But what I do know is that, I mean, do know. I mean, not sure, but I think Jonas probably won't think pink yet. I think with that kind of climb and especially the last three kilometers are the hardest part. Ollalio will probably keep pink. pink tomorrow and yonos is going to get in pink off to the time draw that's my prediction it's definitely going that way because three we should also say ullaria looked very good today he was aggressive coming into the finish so he's not laying down he's not giving up 315 is his lead over vindigard i also think vizma controls the stage yonis wins the stage i think that's going to happen i don't

think he gets 315 on ullario but let's say he gets a minute and a half let's say he gets a minute and a half let's think it's two minutes then he's going to take that yeah but that's that's good for bisma because you go into the first rest day without the leader's jersey because tomorrow's the last sorry not the second rest day tomorrow's the last stage before the second rest day and then you don't have all those media obligations during the rest day somebody else is doing it and then you get the yellow jersey through the pink jersey on tuesday so that's probably what i think a lot you lose is a one and a half minute tomorrow, Spencer. One and a half and then about one and a half two in the time trial, you think?

Yeah. Yeah. That sounds about right. And we're talking very flippantly about a man losing three to four minutes over the course of two stages, but I also think this could apply to a lot of the other GC contenders as well. I think Iona is probably. Yeah, exactly.

Yeah. Alio is good on his way, well on his way to maybe be close to top five, you know, between fifth and 10. I mean, yeah, I think with everything depends Spencer on, you know, a guy like that. Listen, he's a good climber. We've seen already some really good performances of him in the past. Like I remember seeing him. I think it was last year the first time he really came to my attention in two down under,

actually. He did, I said, where does this guy come from? You know, he was on a, I think he was on a Portuguese team before. So really good pickup from Bahrain. this year got the confidence of the team so he can climb everything depends on you know once a rider like that is in the lead of a grand tour you know they're in they're in a special zone it's you know it's like okay they can they can they can surpass their possibilities because they are so much in the zone and in the leads you know this great feeling and then it depends right sometimes

people get out of the jersey and then they just it's like a balloon that they just pinch the balloon and just deflates and and they're gone and others hang on i'm kind of tempted to think that valli can hang on to a good placing in this year old once he loses the pink jersey kind of reminds me a little bit of you know ben o'connor's a guy we've seen take big chunks of time you know early in a grand tour and then he holds on and has a good finish in the overall look at the look at the The Vuelta, was it last? Two years ago, where Primos wins and he is second. Primo's one, yeah.

Yeah. And that was him holding on the whole time, basically. In the tour, he got fourth. He got fourth with when he was in the break on the stage in Tignia. Yep. So, I mean, I personally think O'Connor is probably a bigger engine for the moment than Elalio. By the way, I think O'Connor's going to do it with Giro. He's going to be up there.

Top five, I think, almost sure, maybe close to the podium. I think he could be. You're right. He is a big engine. People forget he won the hardest stage. She won the queen stage of the tour last year. So it's hard. Yeah.

Not easy to do. We should also say on the final climb tomorrow, little deceptive what I said when I said the stats, because the first 5K is three and a half percent average. So the second 5K is very hard, like double, double digit average probably. Yeah. Yeah. And it's going to be really hard for breakaway to stay away. If you start calculating the time they would need, it's massive.

And I don't think the GC, I mean, we know Bahrain's going to control this thing. Why are they doing it? We don't quite know why. We did see a clip from inside the bus. And Domina Caruso was talking about how it's just important to defend the jersey. It's like it's an honor to have the jersey and you have to defend it. People might not agree with that. But they'll probably set pace tomorrow because of that.

Just Spencer, it's very well known that, you know, having the leaders jersey and our team, is it ups the level of the whole team. You know, they, when you're pulling and, you know, everybody, and we're going to be day nine tomorrow, right, stage nine. You know, everybody's already getting really tired. You know, when you pull, everybody suffers. But when you look back and you have the leader's jersey, that mental suffering is completely different.

Because from now on, there's already a lot of people that are super tired and they ask themselves, why are we even here? You know, we just hang in here, just get through the day, you know, majority of the riders are in that case. If you're on a team like Bahrain, you know why you are suffering. And that makes a big difference. So I agree with you. I think Bahrain will go for it and keep the break close together.

I mean, maybe in agreement with Visma. We saw the other day also that Bahrain was doing the work, but Visma did put a guy always with them. And, you know, when one guy was tired, they switched to another guy. I think it will be a collaboration of both of those teams tomorrow. Well, thanks, Johan. And you think Jonas is going to win, right? That's your pick?

Yeah. Yeah, I would think it would be a little. It's not even particularly good climb for Felix Gall. You know, so. Well, you know, I think tomorrow's going to be a good test for Felix Gall and for Pilitzeri also. You know, if they can, if Gall can repeat the performance of Blockhouse. you know now gall starts to ride with a little bit more pressure because everybody is expecting him to be the second best in the race

again today he he showed a bit of weakness that's not necessarily going to be the same case tomorrow look for example look bernal bernal yesterday was was really not good today he was up there in the final he i think he was fourth of that yeah he looked really good yeah so um i'm curious to see how gal is gonna if he's going to confirm that level which you know, he should. But, you know, sometimes it doesn't work out that way. We'll see. I could regret saying this. I've got a bad feeling about Pelazari.

I just, what was coming in with so much hype and I was part of the hype. It's just I, I'm a little concerned that he's going to, he's going to cave like a souffle or something. And I heard. Yesterday, I mean, yeah, yesterday he showed a little bit of, you know, that, that weakness by not being able to follow Hindley in the final. again. But I think overall his condition is solid. I think he's in for a podium. It's like you're in a relationship and everything seems great.

Then you start noticing cracks. And it's like now remembering Rickatello coming by. You remember he was fading through the last week of the Volta last year? And Rickettello was stronger. It's like, oh, maybe this isn't the guy to beat Jonas. I don't know what I was thinking. But it's, yeah. And I heard that.

that he spent like it was like the weeks before the zero he was at 30 he was at a hotel at 3,700 meters or something like that. Who's that? Pelizari and you have to take a cable car to get out there. Where is that hotel? It's called like the Glacier house. It's in the Dolomites. There's no road up there.

And it's like, is that good? Is that even good preparation? I mean, I'm sure they know what they're doing. Yeah. It just shows like he's very focused, but sometimes being. being so dialed in is not that great for you, especially at a young age. A lot of pressure also, you know, like, you know,

in Italy, the Italian promise. Love of pressure for him. Yes. And just the pressure can really get to you. Like Egan Mernal, I doubt he's feeling a lot of pressure, you know. He's been there, seen it all. To Pelazari, the feelings probably feel so big right now. It's just, he's experiencing everything for the first time.

But, Johan, for sure. We'll be back to break this down. I'm curious to see how it plays up. We'll be back tomorrow. Okay. Okay. Thanks, Spencer.