THEMOVE - Can Anyone Beat Pogačar on Mûr-de-Bretagne? | OŪTCOMES: Tour de France Stage 7 Preview

Episode Date: July 10, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 7 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

It's true, Spencer, it's not the same polacce, but Mati Vaparpul has won here. The biggest problem, I mean, let's say if without today's stage, I would have picked straight away Mati Vaparpul tomorrow to win. But with today's stage in the legs, the way I saw him finish, he was completely empty. He had cramps on the second last climb. That's a little bit my doubt. But honestly, if there's one guy who can beat Pogacar, if it's man to man on this type of finish, it's purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernal. We are predicting stage seven of the Tour de France. I will list

off the odds and then we'll let Johann's take on how this is going to play out, who's going to win. But first, if you've been listening and you think I really want to bet this sounds fun, but you're confused about how to do it, do not worry because we have a partner in next bets. All you have to do is go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes. And it will show you exactly where you can bet where you live and the best signup bonuses on each of the books. It's a super helpful resource. I highly recommend checking it out. I use it myself to find signup monuses on books that I don't currently have accounts on. So it's a personal recommendation. Get over to nxtbet.com slash bet outcomes and you will not be disappointed. But Johan, we have, it's a 197 kilometer stage. This is actually a harder

little stretch of the race than I thought it would be at first glance. We have like multiple 200 or near 200 kilometer stages. This is easier than today until they get to the finish. We have two laps of, I guess one lap of the Muda Britannia, but to a sense of it, the favorite for the stage with this information, it will make sense, is Tadipa Gachar plus 110. He's dropping as we speak. Matthew Vanderpool plus 550. Jonas Vinnegaard plus

1100. Roman Gregoire plus 1600. Wout Van Aert plus 2500. Julian Alaphilippe plus 2800. Oscar Anley plus 3300. Local Kid. Kevin Vauquan plus 3300. They go on, but we'll call them out if and when we need to. And if you're new to this, like plus 100 would be you double your money. So you bet a hundred, you get a hundred in profit. That's about a coin flips chance of winning. So the market really thinks Pagachar is the favorite here, but what do you think, Johan? Yeah, I think the same.

I think the same, especially because it's so difficult to, I mean, okay, there is a chance for a breakaway, but it's almost impossible to choose somebody from a breakaway, especially after what we've seen today. The model of the stage is easier overall. It's the last 20k that have tree ascents. that have three ascents. But at the same time, it's kind of flattish until they get to the local circuit. A breakaway could be in the front, but the approach to that circuit, the last 10-15 kilometers before that circuit is crazy. The peloton is flying there. So in 15k, they can bring back two, two and a half minutes on a breakaway. So I'm going to go with Pogacar. He's plus 110 for the moment. And especially on these types of climbs.

Well, I mean, Mille de Bretagne is a bit different, right, than all the others because this steep part is in the beginning and then it flattens out. So that's why it's only 6.9%. But the first part is 15%. So it flattens out and on top it's really flat. So somebody who could stay in the wheel. Yeah. If he doesn't drop them on the first kilometer, then, then, then it's possible. But still, I think Bogacar even in a sprint of a small group, he can still win this. So he's going to be my favorite to win the stage. Yeah, I agree. Actually, full disclosure.

I already bet on him during the filming of the move. I logged on to Fandl He was plus 130 got him there. So for Canon Technically, I we have picked the same person. I also recommend Taddy Pagaccio for the win I don't know if you just mentioned this but We looked up the wind for the course and it's gonna be cross tail to tail for a lot of the day which will make it really hard for a breakaway to stay away because the Peloton will be pushed along at a high speed and they'll be nervous. Everyone wants to be at the front. UAE will probably think, well, we got two sprint stages coming up, basically two rest days. Let's, let's go all out here, win the

stage, increase our lead. I do think, and last time we were here, Matthew Vanderpool, Matteo Vanderpool, as he's known to some, won over Pogacar. I think we talked about this a few days ago. It was a different Pogacar. That was in 2021. This guy we're seeing now is just simply way better. But I do think there is a small pool of riders that potentially could beat Pogacar on this stage. And one of them is Matthew Vanderpool. So my wild card is going to be Matthew Vanderpool at plus five 50 behind my stage pick.

Yeah, I think, I think that's a good pick. Um, as I said, you know, so if you look at the profile of Muriel, Britannia, it's, um, so it's, Oh, it's actually two kilometers, two kilometers at 6.9. So if Van der Poel can stay there on the first 600 meters where it's 15%, he can stay. And in the other case, it's also not easy for Pogacar to stay ahead because it flattens out quite a bit on top. Let's not forget. It's true, Spencer. ahead because it flattens out quite a bit on top. Yeah.

Let's not forget it's true, Spencer. It's not the same Pogacar, but Mathieu van der Poel has won here. The biggest problem, I mean, let's say if without today's stage, I would have picked straight away Mathieu van der Poel tomorrow to win. But with today's stage in the legs, the way I saw him finish, he was completely empty. He had cramps on the second last climb. That's a little bit my doubt. But honestly, if there's one guy who can beat Pogacar, if it's man to man on this type of

finish, it's Mathieu van der Poel. And he's a champion. So he may be dead today, but he can recover for tomorrow. I remember four years ago, we had the same discussion more or less. He failed on day one where everybody expected him to win. He actually lost some time on Alaphilippe. And then the day after he did something incredible because as of today, it's still one of the greatest performances I've ever seen from a cyclist.

It was almost impossible what he did. Now he took the bonification on the second last climb, got called back, then he attacked, got the bonification to win the stage and got a gap and got yellow. So I think that's the best wild card you can get. Yeah, we were just verbally reliving that and it was more impressive than I remember. He really had to like pull a rabbit out of its out of his hat. And you're right. The, the fact that it's steep and then gets less steep at the top opens that up

for him. Like in theory, he could maybe if you squint out sprint Pagache on this. So I would pick them as a wild card because he's one of the few writers that can. But Johan, it's also possible as we saw today, we were sure today was not going to be a breakaway day. It was our breakaway guys did not win. But is there anyone from the break if a break stays away that you think could win? That's super difficult to to to pick a guy from the breakaway, right?

I mean, today, at least, we had... Because you picked Quinn Simmons, I picked Matilalo Poole from the break. They were both in there, so that was good. But of course, we don't know what's going to happen in between those guys. But a guy I think could have a chance if a breakaway makes it would be Romain Grigoire from Groupama FTG. He's a punchy rider. He's in good shape. If it's a breakaway, this kind of climb, he can do it. And he's plus 1600. So I'm going to pick him as my wild card from a breakaway. Yeah, he's, I mean, yeah, he's really strong. I mean, what we notice all the time in these grand tours is it's the same people.

Like rarely do you see someone come out of nowhere, I guess I've been Healy, but even he, there was like hints that he was on very good form and Grig war, what was he fifth and fourth so far in a stage. So clearly on good form and yeah, it's like a fool's errand a bit to try to pick someone from the breakaway. But I think that's a good pick because, you know, it's like personally, I think like, you know, Kevin Vaughn in theory could win, but he's going to be so marked because he's in the GC, but Greg Warr is fit. And he's been up there with Kevin on these stage finishes,

but he's not going to be marked out of a breakaway. So I can see where you're coming from there, but let's take a quick break and then we'll go to the head to heads, which you've been getting right at an impressive pace so far. All right. We're back, Johan. We'll do our head to heads. You've been crushing it. We squeaked out a profit today on him, but let's stay in the black here. We have Tadej Pagache at Fandel in the U S Tadej Pogacar at minus 330 versus Matthew Vanderpoel plus 225.

I mean, I think, I think, but I think, you know, for the sake of, for the sake of the odds, uh, I'm going to assume that Matthew can hold the wheel and pass him because it's not steep at the end. I'm going to get Matthew. Is it the wheel and pass him because it's not steep at the end. I'm going to get my jerk. Is it possible Vanderpoel gets in the breakaway? No. I don't think so.

It's hard for him. We were talking about it offline. It's hard for him to win from those things. Maybe it's easier just for the team to try to control the race with UAE. Yeah. The thing is if they would have had more of a buffer, like one minute, one and a half minute, because at some point he had three minutes of advantage in the GC. For sure they control the whole stage. Because not only can they try to win the stage, but he stays in, he stays in, he stays in yellow.

Even if Pogacar beats him or drops him at the end. Now with one second, uh, it's a bigger question mark. I mean, if I am a root off and, uh, and I need to make a decision, you know, we're gonna control the stage. I'm saying, no, we're not controlling this. It's too risky. We can't, we can't burn up the whole team for one second. Yeah. Yeah. Next one, Remco Evenepoel minus 460 versus Primoz Roglic plus 310. Remco. Yeah,

I think so too, even at those odds. Something's off with Roglic. Jonas Vindegaard minus 460 versus Oscar Onley plus 310. Jonas. I think so. Yeah. I don't think he's quite that off at the moment. Kevin Valklan minus 132 versus Romain Gregoire plus minus 104. I mean, you got this one right today because you deduced that Vaklan would do anything to stay in the front. No matter what, Greg Warr would only do it if you were in the breakaway. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Just, just the numbers on this stuff, like the math would favor him. Julian Alaphilippe minus 152 versus Clemou Champouzain plus 114.

Alaphilippe was suffering today. He looked bad there for a while. I think it's more or less the same. I think Alaphilippe, if he's going to blow up, he's going to blow up big time. Um, and then not insist where a shampoo side, I think we'll keep trying to mean even if it can be top 20, you're going to be one. You're going to want to be into the top 20. So shampoo sample. Yeah. And the better odds. I like that one. All right. Well, anything else, Johan, before we take off? Nope. That's it. All right. It all is. It occurred to me today watching the stage.

I'm like, Oh, we should have put money on Quinn Simmons for the podium. I don't think we're, I don't think we should put money on Grigoir. I think you'd rather just pick Pogacar and Vanderpool for the win. And then Grigoir what I mean, what do you think? Is there a chance Vanderpool finishes on the podium? I guess, like he gets a beat by Pogacar. I'm kind of fearing that Matthew is going to try and that he's going to, he's going to feel today, man. He's going to see what that's very possible. When you explode and say, okay, whatever, you know, one second or two, I'm losing yellow. I'm not winning the stage. You know, screw it. I agree. I think it's an all or nothing situation.

That's something that's good. It would not really happen like in the last 150, 200 meters. Yeah. But yes. Yeah. I agree. I don't think we're going to do podiums today, but we'll start looking at that. OK, this race goes on. All right. Well, thanks. And we will talk tomorrow. OK, bye bye. Bye.