THEMOVE - Can Anyone Challenge Jonas Vingegaard? | Vuelta a España Stage 2 Analysis & Stage 3 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: August 24, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jonas Vingegaard's statement performance to win the second stage of the Vuelta a España, which sees him ride into the race lead and build up a small early lead on his GC rivals. Before they go, they preview tomorrow's stage, which will feature a tough uphill sprint, and discuss how they think the race will unfold and who presents the best betting value.

And then also, Jonas Vinegard, were you surprised he celebrated so early? Like, he knew he had it. And that was a pretty close finish. Yeah. I mean, if you, then if you see the photo finish, it's actually not that big of a margin. But they know. You know, I mean, these guys know. And especially it's a small margin, but also let's not forget, you know, they're not going super fast on an uphill finish.

So they know, they know. If it's a high speed sprint and it's such a small margin, you can say, okay, I didn't really, but, you know, this is just that fraction of a millisecond longer that you have so we both of them chikona knew he didn't win and jonas knew he won everybody welcome back to the move plus i'm spencer martin i'm here with johan bernil we are breaking down stage two of the vault of spagna won by yonis vignigernigone and david gaudou and igan bernal and jemalameda with vinnigard taking an early and slight race lead and then at the end we will predict tomorrow's stage Three, but Johan, just right off the top, what were your main takeaways from today's, let's call it a mini summit finish in the Kymat region of Italy?

Yeah, well, surprised. I mean, first of all, I was surprised that it stayed together such a long time with such a big group. I mean, when I looked at the stage yesterday, I would have expected, expected there'd be a bigger selection. The climb was not as hard as I expected, at least not the majority of the climb. But still, you know, we still have the result that we kind of were expecting. We thought Gricone could win this. He almost got it. Jonas won the stage with a very small margin.

But then if you think about, you know, what happened a month ago, let's not forget, Jonas Wingergaard, was the only writer who was able to follow today, Bogacha, in the last week. and actually sometimes really match him. We don't know whether that was because Pugachar was sick or he was tired or he was, you know, but anyways, he was at the level of Pogacar. So if you look at that Jonas from a month ago and compare him to the field that is here, you could say it's only logical he wins, right?

The only thing we didn't know and we still don't know, but is what he did between the tour and the Vuelta. and how in which shape he would show up. Obviously, today those questions are answered. He's in good shape. It's a hard way to start a grand tour yesterday's sprint stage, but still, the day uphill finish, everybody's nervous. Nobody really knows what to expect or how your legs will respond after a break.

And so I think most some of those answers are we have those answers today. Not just about Jonas, but also, you know, Godub, Egan Bernal, that's, I think for Bernal, that's a great result for his morale, at least. And then, you know, all the other favorites, Almeida, Ayuso, O'Connor, Jay Hindley, Jorgensen, they're all up there. They're two seconds behind. Not a big deal. The only writer who lost some time is Antonio Tiberi, lost 21 seconds. Not a great start, not a disaster either. it has happened in the past that somebody has kind of, you know,

difficulties to get going, especially early in a ground tour. So I think, you know, the, how do you say that the picking order of the favorites has been respected more or less, I would say. Yeah, I mean, the thing I was most impressed about, yeah, the funny thing about Vinegard is we don't really know. Like, he could have, he could actually be quite a bit weaker than he was in the third week at the tour, but it looks like he's stronger because he's not racing against Spagachar, but he looked he looked pretty pretty stinking good today especially since with like 28k to go

i mean the big takeaways from the stage before the final climb q 36.5 tom pickock's team worked pretty much all day to control the breakaway i don't know i never really bottomed the pitcock hype for the stage win but at the same time what else are they going to do you know you came to this race to win stages like this maybe you got to put the team on the front even if you're not the favorites. Then with around 26k to go, the almost the entire Vizma team, and a good chunk of the Q36.5 team, they're riding on the right

side of the road, it's raining. Like, it starts raining quite hard. It's slippery going through a roundabout. They crash. It looks pretty bad for a little bit like Axel Zingle was really slow to get up. Vindigard is bleeding on his elbow, and I thought he looks pretty dinged up. He gave a thumbs up as he was chasing back on to

the camera as he was chasing back onto the peloton. I kind of thought that was a bluff, clearly it wasn't because they hit the funnel climb as you say so fast like going over 30k an hour on the four and a half to five percent pitches at the bottom didn't even i didn't even notice they were on the climb for a long time because they were going so fast and the peloton was so big but right when it starts to get steep with around 4k to go vizma gets yonis right to the front like he's sitting second wheel basically from 4k to go to when he comes around chikone to win the stage with two meters to go so super super impressive like you have to

be fit to do that. You have to be focused. Like, even though the team crashed quite close to the funnel climb, they were able to regroup mentally and physically and pull that off. I was really impressed by that. I was also equally unimpressed by it's, I'm already worried about my Almeida pick because UAE, when Pagatra's not there, they just kind of look lost. Like, I used to say when Almeida were in pretty good position. You know, they're kind of freelancing in the group. Mark Salera tax was 600K to go or 800K to go. And it all. it kind of goes sideways from there. It's like, well, what is Saler doing? I guess he's pulling

out Sepkus and forcing him to pull earlier than he wanted to, but the group kind of gets shuffled. Almeida and Iuso are never in good position after that. And they lose time. They lose two seconds of real time, 10 seconds of time bonus. So that's 12 seconds they lose to Vindigard. Not really what you want to do on a stage that you're probably physically equal to someone on. And then also, Yonis Vindigard, were you surprised he celebrated so early? Like he knew. we had it and that was a pretty close finish yeah i mean if you if then if you see the photo finish it's it's actually not that big of a margin but they know you know mean these guys know and especially uh it's a small margin but also let's not forget you know they're not

going super fast on an uphill finish so they know they know it's if it's a high speed sprint and it's such a small margin you can say okay i didn't really but you know this is just that fraction of a millisecond longer that you have so i mean both of them. Chikona knew he didn't win and Jonas knew he won. So, I mean, it's impressive to see. It means after that crash, Spencer, okay, it looks spectacular of course. And, you know, when it was actually Jonas who went down first, right? He looked like he went down. It's kind of like helicopter shot. It was hard to see exactly. We saw the, I saw some images from an, from an onboard camera of the guy who was in front of Jonas. And so you could see him go

down and then a few other guys um these kind of crashes and you know at like higher speeds but with a lot of water on the road they tend to be okay as long as you don't hit a curb uh it's it's not bad um i don't know if you saw the story by the way of axel zangler spencer i just i mean i read that i mean he was uh he was occupied quite a bit there with the ambulance and then got going again so apparently he he has a history of having to pop in his shoulder sometimes like he dislocates his shoulder it's a weak point and he knows how to put it back into place um so i read i read an interview of him after the finish that said that he was at the ambulance so they were kind of assisting him to put his shoulder back into place so he could keep going which is already

unbelievable if you think about it he looked like he was in a lot of of pain. Yeah. And so he said that before he went in the ambulance, there was this somebody there talking to him, you know, so must have been a spectator. He said, okay, hold my bike, you know, gets in the ambulance. He comes out of the ambulance. It's bike stolen. The guy, the bike was gone. So, so the bike disappeared in the middle of the race. Only in Italy, only in Italy. Bikes up is out of control in that region. Man. And so yeah, he must have have gone on with a spare bike, I imagine. But yeah, that was quite the story.

That is quite the story. I don't think I'd feel very good. If an injured pro cyclist gave me his bike and I'd stole it. Yeah. I'd feel pretty bad about myself. But what were your, like, how do you feel about the G.C.? Like so obviously, Jonas is very, very strong. It's concerningly strong for me.

I thought he looked good. I'm afraid at this point. Chacona gets second. I thought he would win. Our picks yesterday were Chaconi and Vindigard. So we weren't really surprised. Do you think Chikone is a serious, I'd say, podium contender in the G.C based on this? No.

I mean, nothing points into that. I mean, he's in great shape. And let's not forget, you know, he had a bad crash in the Gero, had to readjust and, you know, prepared really well after the Giro and during the tour, the proof. You know, he came back once San Sebastian was great in Burgos. But I think he's going for stagements, man. I mean, he's never been, you know, he's never been in a great position in an overall, in a grand tour.

Never finished top 10. Okay. So, hey, yeah, in his 30s. Yeah. You know, it's always going to be a first time, right, when somebody does it. So in this field, I think he can, he can do great. But for some reasons, oh, something's, always seems to happen to him.

Yeah, I mean, today, today, well, listen, he did a great race. His team did a great lead out at the end. And he just got beaten by Jonas Winkigart. There's no shame in that, right? But, no, I don't, I don't think Chicona for the podium is, as for now, based on what we've seen in the past, I think there's other writers for that. There's, you know, there's, of course, there's Jonas, there's Almada, there's So there's Jay Hindley, there's Ben O'Connor, there's, you know, even Matteo Jorgensen,

guys who have been on the podium or close to the podium already. Some of them even Grand Tour winner. So I think we have to consider those always before Julie Chikone. Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't even have notes for Chircone on the film. I thought he launched it a good spot. I thought everything was good. And then Vindigard's just too strong, too fast. people are saying like oh a newfound speed but i don't know he's kind of always been pretty

strong right if you're getting the k-o-m on the colder rats you're pretty good yeah yeah pretty good power uphill yeah he's he's the second best stage racer in the world so what i mean nobody should be surprised by today's result i would say two two i was really surprised by david god do igan bernal same time third and fourth very good finishes just because i had so many question marks about both of them and they both look so sharp someone i also was speaking of speaking of sorry to interrupt spencer before i forget go do you know we and i don't want to start you know i don't want to open a can of worms but oh you know go do i've seen the picture of him it was before this i think it was before the start he is unrecognizable he looks so skinny

He's never been, like, his face looks like a knife. He's like he's unbelievably skinny. You know, didn't do the tour because he didn't feel great. You know, is this going to, you know, tie into the debate? You know, there's been all these debates about Pauline Perravo and losing the weight and, you know, other of the competitors. I wouldn't say criticize. I mean, being critical of it, which is something. I still don't understand, but that's another debate.

But the code do looks sharper than ever. So, you know, we all know he's a talented writer. He's done really well in the Vuelta already in the past. I guess he's been top five. He's won a few stages already. So, and he's, he needs to get a result, you know, because he's one of the highest paid riders of his team, if not the highest paid writer.

and had no results this year or barely results. Terrible year. He moved, I think, to the south of France or something last year. And then it's funny about the Pauline Faron-Provo is one of someone on production team, Colton, after the first stage of the FEMS was like, she looks really skinny. Like, should we bet on her? I didn't do it, but then I was like, oh, yeah, that makes sense. So, like, we probably should pay attention to that with God-Doo.

Like, he looks really, I don't want to say good. I don't want to like Deify being skinny, just look sharp. It looks ready to go. Yeah. Jai Henley finished in seventh. For someone I had a lot of question marks about, I was pretty impressed by that. Should we be concerned about UAE Johan? How do you feel about their performance from the day?

I think they're where they have to be. I mean, a guy like Alameda also, you know, crashed in the tour, comes back now, has trained. But losing two seconds is it's more a mental. meaning than anything else. It's like, okay, you know, it's when you're up there and you're, when their guy, when the few big engines start going, all of a sudden you kind of have to say, oh, wow, my legs are not here. I can't go.

I don't have that sixth gear or that seven gear that a race car has. I'm not reading too much more into it. I think they're where they have to be. It's not a big deal. means it's more a mental I mean for Wingergaard it's a mental game it's a mental win and for those two guys it's okay yeah we're here but we lost two seconds it's not the end of the world no big deal but we would have preferred to be in the same time I almost think they it almost looked at their struggles were structural versus fitness like just even being in the right they just

seemed to always struggle to be in the right position it was it was chaotic it was a fast chaotic final kilometer there's just like I don't really I'm worried about the team. I'm just like, I don't fully get, like, why is Mark Saler not just looking after them? Like, why is he adding chaos to an already chaotic situation? That was, I cannot imagine something like that. That's not a command that comes from the car. That's just the rider, you know, acting on instinct, which, you know, didn't really make any difference.

Well, I'm really, the guy I'm really surprised about today is Eglam Bernal. because this is not a finish for him this is an explosive last kilometer he's more of a diesel on the so i mean him being up there not losing any time uh knowing where you know he was i think he was sixth and two of burghars or something but never really in the in the race to win and you know now the first appointment being up there with with the other with chikone and godu and bernal that's uh that's good for his morale that's a mental win for him. Yeah, not to pour too much cold water on that, but I thought, that's, this all seems very

familiar. And then I went back to stage seven of the Jor d'Italia, like explosive uphill finish, Bernal was third and we're like, whoa, this guy's flying. And then they get to the hard climbs. And he's underperforming relative to his explosive climbing at the Jero. So I don't, I do want to, I do want to see him in Indora before we get too excited about that. Yeah, yeah.

One quick question for you before we go to the preview for tomorrow. So Tom Pitcock, teamworks all day for this, finishes, he was in perfect position, finishes 10th. It just didn't have the horsepower to go with those guys. Like what, what's the path forward here for Pitcock? Because he's going to pay a lot of money on that team. That team's putting a lot behind him. I'm sure they came to this race with the idea of stage wins, plural. But Pitcock, he's only won one grand tour stage in his career.

Like, are these unrealistic expectations at a certain point for him? I think he's exploring, you know, where his limits are. I mean, he said stage wins and the top 10, which I think is possible. Pitcock can be top 10 in the world. There's no doubt about that in my mind. Whether he will do it or not, that's different. I think it's going to have a lot to do with his mental determination, you know, because once he sees that, let's be clear that, you know, podium would be

extremely surprising. I don't see that happening. Over a hall podium. Well, yeah. No, I don't know. No, I don't see that happening. He's never been top. He's never been top 10 in a grand tour before.

Well, he's never gone for it either. Yeah. You know, maybe in the Giro, but this Giro, he did not prepare for the Gero. Has he prepared now specifically for the Vuelta? I also don't think so. But at a certain point, you have to prepare. You can just. Well, he did Mountain Bike Grand Prix.

races and stuff. So, you know, I keep saying that Pitcock is obviously a huge talent. He has tremendous potential, including for Grand Tours, I think, but he needs to focus on it. He needs to prepare for them and not just a few months. This is like a two, three year career decision if he wants to explore that. He needs to change his calendar. He needs to change his style of racing. this this you know the only the only thing that I can see where it could be a weak point is the time trawling because he's you know he's super light but he's small so he's aerodynamic uh but the way he climbs on one day races or sometimes and you know like he on on like arctic race he you know he won that he won that uphill finish uh in the Saudi tour okay it's not against the biggest field but

the guy has potential to climb. You know, he's a huge engine. He's light, he's light, and he's a damn good bike rider. Now, to me, it seems like it's a focus. I mean, he needs to focus and make up his mind, whether he wants to do this or not. You know, he's given interviews already that said, yeah, I know, I don't want to really be, you know, focusing on three weeks. Now, the question is, and I haven't, I don't have the answer. I don't have the information.

he here because his team got invited and the condition for his team to be invited at the Vuelta and at the Giro, you got two invitations for both of those races, is obviously depending on his presence. They're not going to invite Q306.5 without Tom Pitcock. So he's also a bit stuck in that situation, right? Obviously, if the team Q306.5 gets the invitation, they're going to take it and then Pitcock needs to go. So it's, uh, Um, yeah, it's, it's a question mark whether he, whether, I mean, he said in interviews, he wants to go for top 10 and, and stage wins. Now, would you be impressed or if Pitcock is seventh or eight in the Vuelta? Is that really something that adds to his curriculum? My answer is no, it doesn't add anything.

But, but as a smart cycling man, Johan, you would be impressed because you would say you can't go from nothing to everything. to have stepping stones in your career. And he has to at some point finish six, seventh, fifth. You can't just, like, show up and win after never having a result. Well, I'm not saying about winning. I'm saying going for podium, you know, but then, then again, you know, I personally think, I mean, and I don't know Tom Pitcock personally at all. I'm just going off what I think he is, how he think, how I think he is as a character

and what I read in interviews. this guy's a winner you know a podium even a even third place it's it's not what pick it does not make him tick this guy wants to win races I don't think he has the attention span for three races is my personal that's that's that's what I think that's it it would take a shift in his mind and and a whole turnaround of his program and the way, how you plan towards a grant tour. And then the question is, what's the possibility of success? It's, it's an unknown territory.

So is it worth it? So if you're always thinking like, I could be a mountain bike world. That seems nice. Like, you're never going to, it's just going to seem like an annoyance. I mean, I'm confused because I remember him speaking in November saying, I didn't ever want to go for G.C. Enios made me do that. Yeah, yeah.

And then this rolls around and. suddenly he's going for top 10. It does seem like maybe that's what Q3.6.5 wants, not what he wants. Yeah. The stage wins is tough because today it's kind of perfect. Today was the Binkgox stage. Today was a Binkgox stage, yeah. He's not going to win if it's a tougher finish.

And so it's also, I mean, if you look at the stages, he's won this year, that kind of stages. And you see the competition. You see the competition here. It's a different game. Yeah. Yeah. Well, do you know who finished on the same time Edism and his Arctic Tour win? Yeah, Corbyn Strong. Corbyn Strong. So Corbyn Strong is like a like a sprinter.

He's a versatile sprinter. Yeah. Yeah. Just, yeah, it's at some point I wonder like, are these just unrealistic expectations on him? It's clearly not, today did not look like a guy locked into the GC. Yeah. But I still think, you know, listen, until you don't, I mean, at the end of the the day he's there. He's only two seconds behind. That's the difference between great legs and good legs, right? There's always a chance. They could have been a chance. I think they were right to try to go for it because until you don't get to that final and that final sprint of the last

300 meters, you don't know. Everybody, all those guys, like, you know, Jonas and Chicone and Godi, but now Almeida, I use so Pitcock. They all thought they could win until three, four hundred meters to go. Yeah. I mean, yeah, you do, you have to go for it, especially a team like that. You came for this stage. You have to do it. You have to go all in.

So let's take a quick break and then we'll predict tomorrow stage, which is kind of a difficult stage to ride and predict. Are Johan, we are back. We're predicting tomorrow's stage three. We're actually getting closer to Torino where we started. We're moving in the wrong direction away from Spain. it's 134 kilometers so short two categorized climbs one of those is in the middle cat 2 6k long 6.5% average so not easy right like right before a descent into the

intermediate sprint that will be interesting and then a cat 4 finish it's listed at 2.5k long at 3% average but the the real meat of that is the final k is about 5% average so we're stuck between probably won't be breakaway especially at that distance probably will be some sort of sprint because it's not hard enough to get rid of the sprinters. All list of favorites. Mads Pedersen at minus 155. So that means you have to bet $155 to win $100 a profit. If he wins, Gasper Phillips and plus 500, Ethan Vernon plus 1,400.

You said his name yesterday and I forgot it already. Urius Ullar plus 1,800. Actually, he could win. Ben Turner plus 2,500, Philippe O'Gana plus 2,500. Brian Kekar plus 3,300, Tom Pitcock plus 3,300. It goes on and on. We'll come out if we need to. And if you have questions about how to actually bet, we have a partner.

Next bets, go to nxtebats.com slash bet outcomes. You'll see where you can bet wherever you live and the best sign-up bonuses for each book. Johan, how do you think this is going to play out, breakaway or Peloton, and who do you think is going to win? Now, I think it's Peloton, 134 kilometers short stage, early in the race, still. Lots of riders who are, you know, lots of teams who want to go for it. Everybody's still full of energy. I already know who you're going to pick, so I'm going to pick someone else. I think, you know, I think your guy's going to win, but since I can't pick him, I'm going to pick Yaspur-Philipson.

I think Yaspers in good shape. He can, he will be there, I think, in the final. final. And then, you know, if the strong uphill sprinters start too early, Philipson could potentially win that. I mean, he's done it already in the past. That kind of finishes. Philipson is my pick to win the stage tomorrow. Well, I'm going to pick Matt's Pedersen, even at minus 155. But I just think Matt, if Mads Pedersen came to the race to win stages like this, we know he's on good form because we've seen him destroying races very recently. I think he wins it, especially since we saw similar.

It was that very similar finish, actually, at the Giro where he beat Del Toro in Wouten-Art, I believe, if I remember right? Yeah. So I think he's got it. But at first, I thought, I don't know, why is Phillips an even second? I don't think this guy is a chance. But, you know, this is a guy who he won Milano San Remo. He finished second twice at Perrube.

Like, you have to be pretty versatile rider to do that. It is, he will be there. He will not get dropped before the finish. And it probably is not crazy to think he wins. So I like that pick, but I'm going to go with Pederson. Okay. Yeah. I mean, Pedersen is the favorite.

There's no doubt about it. And there's a special complication or special circumstance at the fault of these intermediate sprint. So there's bonus seconds, I think three to one available in addition to points. The points only go to five spots. So like if you're in the intermediate sprints. Yeah, in the intermediate sprint. So if a five-rider break-ways up the road, the Peloton doesn't even have to worry about that.

Yeah. But Pedersen like has to start making up ground here with the intermediate sprint points because he didn't win any today, I think. And he's 50 points behind his main rival, Yesper Phillips. And one thing to keep an eye on, Ethan Vernon scored 10 points at the intermediate sprint point today. So he's now at 40 points, 10 points. behind yes for Philipson like that would just be someone I would keep an eye on like a dark horse for the points classification Ethan Vernon but Matt Spatterson could come in and just win this tomorrow and now he's then he's I guess he wouldn't be even because Philipson probably

finishes somewhere in the top 10 you would have to imagine so I guess he won't be leading tomorrow but I'm curious to see how this points shakes out because Vernon Vernon was impressive for him to get those points today. And mathematically, it's just a more difficult race to manage in the tour because you can't just get like 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, and the intermediate sprints and still get points. Yeah, yeah. Well, Johan, anything else before we take off?

No, that's it for me. All right, thank you. And we will be back tomorrow to break down this uphill sprint and preview stage four. Okay, Spencer. Thanks. Speak soon. Bye. DEN.

Thank you.