THEMOVE - Can Anyone Stop Pogačar and Van der Poel at Milan-Sanremo? | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: March 19, 2026

Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel break down the course, contenders, and likely outcomes for Saturday's Milan-Sanremo, the first one-day Monument of the 2026 season. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the race will play out, which riders can hope to challenge Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar, and who presents the best betting value. Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team Caldera Lab: A small habit with big results. Go to https://CalderaLab.com/THEMOVE and use code THEMOVE for 20% off your first order. Rugiet Ready: Over one hundred fifty thousand men have already made the switch to Rugiet. Getting started is simple. Rugiet connects you with a board-certified doctor online and your treatment gets shipped discreetly to your door. For a limited time only, head to https://Rugiet.com/THEMOVE to get 15% off your order.

You know, it could be that I can perfectly see a scenario where Pogacar attacks, attacks, attacks from the pool follows, and actually when the pool drops Pogacha on the podjo. I don't exclude that. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus, our weekly show this week. It's a special outcomes edition. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Yohamber Neal, and we are predicting Milan San Remo, which is on Saturday, not Sunday, of this weekend. The first monument of the 2026 season, we finally get the big guys going at each other. Teddy Pagotcher, Matthew Vanderpult, Tom Pickcock, Matthew, Brendan, Watt, Benard.

Very exciting stuff. Johan, I'm going to, I'll just say a little bit about the race, a little bit of the contenders, the betting odds, and then we'll get your take on who's going to win this and how it's going to play out. Milan, San Remo, we all know it, 200 and 298 kilometers, I believe. It's shrinking. It's sub 300. It does not start in Milan anymore. It got kicked out to Pavia, ins in San Remo, as always.

pretty flat to uphill for the first half. They go over the Paso del Tuchino, I believe, and then they descend down to the coast. Series of climbs get harder and closer together toward the end. The big highlights, though, are the Chepressa, which is about 26, 27 kilometers from the finish line. And then they descend down that, have a little flat section, and then the pogeo.

The final climb, it's shorter, but quite a bit faster. they descend down very twisted descent into the finish in San Remo. It's downhill to flat for the last two kilometers. That your press is 6K long. Pogio, four-ish kilometers long. Those are the two decisive climbs. The odd thing about San Remo, longest race of the year,

probably the one where you have to watch the least of it, because it's important in the sense that it is putting load in riders' legs, making them less explosive, changing how a sprint might play out. But really nothing happens until the base of the final two or three climbs. So you can kind of condenses all the action toward the end. The contenders are the defending champion. Matthew Vanderpoll is the favorite.

This is on draft kings plus 135. Tadipagatja plus 175, meaning if you bet $100, $100,000, you win $175. Philippa O'Gana last year's runner up plus 800. Yasper Philipson winner two years ago plus 1,400. Tom Pickcock plus 1400. Wow, Van Arte, 500. Matthew Brendan plus 2,200,

Isaac Deltora plus 2,500, Tobias Lund Anderson. I've got the hot hand right now, plus 2,500. Madd's Patterson, is he even racing this plus 4,000? Maybe not a good pick if he's not in the race. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? It has traditionally been a sprinters race. It is becoming less and less so as the final climbs are raced faster and faster. The groups are getting smaller at the end.

But how do you think it's going to play out in who? who's going to win this. Yeah, Spencer, I mean, it's, it's the one of the most traditional races on the calendar. It's, it was always quite predictable. And I think it remains quite predictable with the difference that, you know, the dynamics of the peloton have changed that there's, there are guys who are fast who can climb now also. And, you know, these guys can make the difference on the chippresa and the pojo.

and then actually make sure that the sprinters don't come back. It's a mix of both scenarios, right? Let's not forget, 2004. Jasper Philipson won. You know, it did break up on the chippres and on the podgio, but it all came back. And Phillipson won from a sprint. I think in the same scenarios last year, Spencer,

for sure. What we know for sure is that UAE and Tale Pogacar are going to go full gas on the chipres. That's their goal. They know that that's what they have to do to break the palaton and to get rid of the sprinters. We saw last year it almost worked, right? We had we had Van der Poul in Ghana who were with Pugachar and Ghana got dropped on the podjo, came back.

But I foresee the same scenario with the slight difference. I mean, probably more or less the same outcome, but I am. as I said in our podcast a few days ago I can't see how Pugacha can drop Fondre Poul or this Fondre Poole I think he's so strong you know I did a little bit of research and there's people from within the Peloton I wrote it down here who gave some gave some information on let's see on on Wanderpool's actual one second Where is it here? So Oliver Nasson, I don't know if you read this.

Oliver Nasson. I have not read this, no. Yeah. This is about what we talked about, that last test of Vandre Poul in the last stage of Tirino, right? Where I said, you know, I thought this was premeditated. It kind of was until it wasn't, until Philipson got in trouble. Nasson says Wanderpoul's teammates were shouting at him to stop.

So we were wrong. Mati Wondrapool has made a great impression at Tireno and some of the episodes that the other writers are telling only reinforce the feeling that Vonderpool is even stronger than previous years. Oliver Nasson spoke about what happened in the last stage and Wanderpoole's insistent forcing on the climb of Ripa Tranzone, with which he put many of the sprinters into the race, including Yasser Filsen, in trouble.

Nasson watched it all close up and can't find the words to describe Hunter Poole's performance. I watched up close his teammates yelling at him to stop and slow down. It was simply a demonstration of his chibresa legs, he said in the at last the News podcast. His effort was dedicated by pure personal interest. He really wanted to hurt us. This was really impressive. I've seen some amazing things from him this week. They convinced me that he's the number one favorite.

for the victory of Milan San Remo. And then I also saw somewhere that Nasson said, he saw Van der Poohle react to Del Toro's attacks, and he had to break to not hit the wheel of Del Toro. I mean, you could see, I mean, I've seen a few of those reactions on the Toro's attacks, and Van der Poohle was straight away on the wheel, but, you know, people who saw it from close by, It must have been really impressive.

Now, is that a guarantee for him to win Milan San Remo? It's not. But I do think that Pogacar won't be able to shake off Fonderpool. Will they go both together to the finish? That's a different story, right? It could also be that Pogacar can drop him. Let's not forget that Pogacar, there's been a few editions. Because Fondra Poul won it twice now, right?

He won it twice already, Milan Sondremo. Yeah. We saw in both of those editions, that pogachar attacked, attacked, attacked, on one of the times that he, that Van Rpul won, Wendrpul counter-attacked and dropped Pugachar on the Podgio and the two others, which were Ghana and Walt Van Hart, I think. And then last year, Pogachar tried to drop him, had him on the ropes,

but yet again, on the top of the Pogos who attacked von der Poult. and had Pogacar on the limit. Couldn't drop him. But so, you know, it could be that I can perfectly see a scenario where Pogacar attacks, attacks, attacks, when the Pugachar follows and actually when the pool drops Pogacca on the Pogu, I don't exclude that. I was just going to say that because these climbs are not steep. Chappresas 4% Pogio 3.8%. When you get climbs of that, it sounds ridiculous, right?

Pagacch are getting dropped. How could that ever happen? The problem is on climbs like that, how raw power, absolute power, is better than watts per kilo. As we saw in Paris, that wasn't really a fair fight, but Pagacchar can be dropped by some of these bigger guys.

Like, Wow, Fonar just dropped him because he can put out more power. That was cobbled, so seated is even better. I think that's not impossible, Johan, that Pagacar's dropped. Is he dropped in the Chappresa? Probably not. Is he dropped in the poggio?

it could happen for sure. Well, I mean, the only thing is also Spencer, sorry to interrupt, is that, you know, Pogacchar kind of has to drop Mathieu van der Poul. Mathieu doesn't necessarily have to drop him. Although if they get away both of them together and they go full gas to the finish, it's still, it's a two-man sprint. After 300 kilometers, you never know, right? Normally, it's a big advantage to Rundra Poul,

but after a long race and, because Bogacha is not slow either, you know, and especially not in two-man sprint. Yeah, like if you look at the odds of plus 135 and plus 175, you're right. The Vanderpull, the onus to drop somebody is on Pagachar. In theory, he has to go to the line solo. So Vanderpoles are the better, probably mathematical pick. It's hard to imagine him losing. We should say before anyone puts money on this, this is the hardest race to predict of the entire season.

I think it's very, very difficult to win this race because it's not so difficult. someone like Pagatra can't just line everybody up and drop them. I do think if they go to the line together, it's not guaranteed that Pagatra loses. You know, it's not 99% chance he loses that sprint. I think he could even, he could think about it. But if we back up, the way this is going to play out, UAE in theory, what we all expect is going to line up their riders like Del Toro,

Morgaro. Morgaro, Antonio Morgado. Is he, is Morgado doing it? I believe he is. Let me check. I'm not sure. I'm not so sure. No, so McNulty, Goroal, Goroly, Goroly, yeah.

Jan Christian, is a strong team. Dominovac, del Toro Vermiche. So a lot of power, actually. It's a strong team, that's true. But personally, I think that they are lacking a few guys that they had last year, and this team doesn't have this kind of explosiveness.

The two last guys from last year to launch Pogacchar were Tim Wellens and Jonathan Narvaise. Both of them are not here because they're injured. That's obviously a very strong team, but I don't know if they have

this speed that, for example, nobody has the leading out speed of Narvaise, that explosive kick at the end. Is that what Pulachar needs? I'm not so sure.

As long as it's fast enough, he can still go. It just needs to go far or far enough. He needs only Bogacha needs one and a half kilometer lead out. If he waits until 2K from the top,

he's not going to drop them anymore because it's not as hard anymore on the chippresa. Yeah, and we should say, in theory, Del Toro very good, right? Simetian Christian. Or are they going to be

at the front? Because this is a positioning. Like Matt, you have, there's a PhD level positioning test. Del Toro has not been there in the last few years. I do kind of worry about that. But, but, so that's what we expect. They line it out.

They attacked them that Chippa. Do they have to do that, though? What if they go further out? Like Capo Bertha, it's 2K long at 6.2%. That's the steepest climb. It comes roughly, what, 40K from the finish. Is that actually a better place for? Oh, no, you can't go from there.

They can't go from there. What they can do, I mean, you typically, I mean, it has, there has been a few minor changes, but normally is the Turquino. That's, that's like a bigger climb, a longer climb, and then you go down to the coast, and then you have, I don't know the order anymore, but you have capo bertha, capo, chervo, capo mele. Probably in the other. I think it's capoberta, the hardest one.

In the last one, then. Yeah. And then you go to the Chibesa. They need to use those three couples to make the race hard, but they can't go from there because they're going to burn up their own guys already. And it's not, I mean, they can't stay away from there till the chipresa. So, I mean, I could also foresee another scenario, Spencer. I don't know what you think about this.

So let's just assume. that Pogacar does get away on the Cipresa. Okay, so if I'm, if I'm Wanderpul and if I'm his team, I have plan A and plan B. Plan A is which I think they're pretty confident about. I'm just saying with Pogacar, he's not dropping me. What if it does happen?

Plan B should be, okay, we try to stay with the next few guys, you know, without moving over the limit. Let's say if, if Pogachar gets away on the Chippresa, right? And he gets 15, 20 seconds, even 30 seconds on the top. And it's Vanderpul, Ghana, Walt Van Art, Pitcock, and whoever else, I don't know, another not a big engine. They're catching him before the point. If they work together in between the Chippresa and the Poggio, they're catching him. So yeah, if they work together, which is the

Big if, right? These are things that, you know, should be a scenario and probably also something that, I mean, I don't know if they still do that, but probably also something that the competing teams would kind of have a, you know, off the record conversation about, hey, if this happens, what if, you know, we just make sure that we are, nobody's isolated and if the three, four, five guys, because they all know more or less who's going to be there, right? they know the they know the fitness and the condition of everybody that could be a way to beat poggachar at his own game it's a bit more complicated of course to make it happen in the race but it's definitely a possibility

actually the biggest risk to vanderpul probably is phillipson because if phillipson catches back on no one's going to work because no one wants to pull phillipson to the line but that group you outline yeah in theory they could work together in theory they could pull pagetra back we should say i don't when's the last time we saw him reeled in it was amstel gold yeah and then finnigard at the tour stage like 11 and 2024 whatever like it actually does not happen very often yeah yeah but that group was working if you go back to that tour they were working together and they pulled them back in so i don't know spencer you know if if we may believe the the latest reports on the weather forecast they do predict a slight headwind in the final.

So Cipresa, apparently 10 kilometers per hour headwind, which is obviously not great for a solo attack. And then especially the wind in between the Cipresa and the pojo, if it's slight headwind there, then it's not easy. If there's five, six guys behind really organized, even Pugacar's not going to stay away. I don't think. Yeah, like, so last year they had a tailwind on the Trapressa.

And also the thing about this race is the climbs are getting way faster. Like you look at the pogeo average speed, it's increasing significantly every year. The Chrapresso, the one before it is also, because that was the big thing. It's like the Pogio was fast and then now they're one-upping it where it's like, well, both are fast. The Chappresa last year was ridden at 37.6 kilometers an hour. That was with Ghana, Banderpull and Pagachar. That's the only three guys remaining.

In 2020, when Wattvon Art won the race, it was 32.5 kilometers an hour. So significantly faster in just five years. Yeah, yeah. Let's take a quick break and then I'm going to ask you to pick your winner when we come back from this if you got to pick one of these guys. And then we'll talk about why we think who else could win and how they could win if that's possible. Okay, Johan, so we're back. If you had to pick one of these riders, who are you picking to win this race? I'm going to pick Matthew Honorable Pool.

It's, I think it's the safest bet, especially after. having looked at what he did in Tireno. The reports I'm hearing from, you know, in the media and from inside information from within the Peloton, apparently it's incredible how strong he is. Now, you know, he has to have that good day on the day of the race, of course. You know, it may differ from how your condition is, but I think Funderpool is the big favorite,

so I'm picking him to win the race. Yeah, it's hard to go against the. that, especially he's positive money plus 135. It's rare you see one of these guys at a monument that have positive odds anymore, as weird as that sounds. San Remo is unpredictable, so that's probably why. I'm going to pick, just because I picked him to win every monument, I'm now having second thoughts about this.

I'll pick that a pagachar. And like a little peek behind the curtain, I've bet on both of them. Because with those odds, you can make money, you make a small profit, no matter who wins. Pagacha are plus 175 without pretty good odds. How do you drop Matthew Vanderpull? That's a tough question. I frankly think Pagotcha is going to have to beat him in a sprint.

I think that's the only way because, as you say, with this climbing form, I don't think they're going to drop them unless. They really need to go full gas from the bottom of the Gpresso. That means, in my opinion, and also full gas, Spencer, that means that in my opinion on UAE there's only one guy who can harm a part of Pugachar, Mattovon de Poole, the Matthew van der Poole who we see now is Del Toro.

All the other guys, they may pull, but they're not going to hurt him. Yeah. So it needs to be del Toro. So that means that Del Toro needs to be in position, which has been a struggle. I mean, that, we've said it already many times. That, those 10, five kilometers, before the Chippresa, it's probably the most hectic approach of the whole cycling season to a critical

point. It's super dangerous, stressful. You know, there's usually there's, there was a crash, I think last year also at the bottom of the Chippresa. I do remember Pitcock was involved in the crash. So that's the first thing. Del Toro needs to be in position from the bottom because if he's out of position, he will probably make it to the front, but he will have wasted already. is so much energy that it's not going to be enough to put the hurt on Maty van der Poul. By the way, Spencer, just a little side note. We say, okay, can you go from the Chippresa alone to the finish in San Remo? You know, it's not usual.

As I said, after Stradabianchi, you know, I spent some time there with some American friends and with guests were Marri van der Blanche. the Chipolini and Johnny Bunyo and we spoke about Milan San Remo. So Johnny Bunyo won Milan San Remo. I think if I'm not mistaken, it was 1990. And he actually went on the Chippresa by himself to the finish on his own. There was nobody, nobody with him. So it has been done before. And so yeah, I mean, Johnny was an amazingly strong rider.

Probably, you know, if I look back at the riders I raised with, taking, I mean, Indyrian obviously was a guy who was super impressive as a cyclist, but a close second, if not, like if you look at the pure power, Johnny Boone was probably one of the guys who has impressed me the most in terms of strength. So it was nice to talk with him about that. He was, I mean, he was proud to tell that story. And I think until not very long ago, it was still the fastest Milan San Remo ever until a few years ago, I think.

So, yeah, Chapo, Johnny. That was amazing. It's a pretty serious effort to go from the Trapressa and hold everybody off. Like, we've not seen anyone do it since. And we're talking about maybe Pagacha can do it. And he can do seemingly everything. So, yeah, Johnny, tip of the cap to you. That's not bad.

I'm going to start throwing stuff out and you tell me why this doesn't work. UAE starts pacing hard on the Turcino and then it's all it's on the whole time until Chappesa does that work or no it doesn't work

it doesn't work Spencer Turkino is it's it's a hard it's the hardest climb of the of the race but it's so far you know it's like you can't so far from the finish it is you can't sacrifice your

your team it's 150,000 from the finish. From there, it makes no sense. It absolutely makes no sense. And then it's actually a really, I used to think this was the worst race of the year. It's now the best race of the year. Very clever route because it's not hard after that. You know, you crest that mountain pass, biggest climb of the race. And then it's rolling, right? It doesn't get hard again for a while, like almost 100K. So as you say, yeah, if you sacrifice your team, then it's like, then what? You've got all, you've got this coastal road where you then want the team to be ready for the climbs coming up.

So yeah, I think you're right. I don't think that would work. You know, another little story just comes up to me now. So speaking of the Turquino. So it's always been, I think one or two years it has not been in because there was works or damage to the road or anything. But actually, it's funny because yesterday they both called me these guys on video. There is one rider. who won Milan San Remo and he attacked on the Turquino.

You know, is this, and this person called you. So they're, well, yeah, he was, Bunoz was with him. So they were on their way to, they were on their way to Milan San Remo to, you know, ride with some psychotourists. It's Claudio Capucci. Yeah, that's what I thought. And he attacked. He was, I mean, yeah, we spoke about it yesterday.

They were together in the car and we talked about that. So he attacked, he was not by himself, though. But they went on the Turquino and then I don't know, I don't remember where he attacked the rest of the breakaway. But back then, I think it was 1991 when he won. Minasarimo, if I'm not mistaken. It was 91, yeah. Yeah. And yeah, he attacked on the Turkino already.

That's in Carrera jeans. Remember that kit? Yeah. It looked like jeans, man. Glory days of cycle. Wow. So it is possible. It's hard to imagine that working, though. No, not in the next palaton. I do remember somehow it was bad weather and, you know, the teams were not the same way organized. And then now, I think that's impossible. That's impossible. I mean, it's possible if the peloton miscalculates and let a break go.

but, you know, it would not happen in today's cycling that a favorite, like Kappucci, would be in a breakaway and be allowed to take enough advantage to make it to the finish. That's not possible in today's cycling. And so it looks like no rain, likely no rain, slight wind, potentially headwind on the Trapressa. That's not great for attacking either. How big do you think this group is going to be? And who could win if these two guys don't win? I think there's a lot of possibilities in Milan Saremo.

I mean, we kind of have to, I mean, like, imagine the scenario. It's going to be, it's going to be Van der Poul and Pogachar. But, you know, a guy like Pitcock, for example, who, by the way, won Milano-Turino today in an incredible fashion, a very impressive win on the last climb on the Super guy. you know if he doesn't have any issue with the positioning I think he can stay on the wheel I mean he's a great shape obviously

he beat Roglidge and Tobias Johansson yeah and so I think he can be there Gamma I don't I'm not sure last year I think he was in a lot better shape

than than this year let's not forget he almost won Tirino last year I was not far I think he was second in Tirino I still yeah I still think he could have won that we could get that one back he was a harder Terrano this year and he wasn't like a mountain breakaway the hard who's in the breakaway the hardest stage of the race yeah he looks he looks like he knows what he's doing

he said in an interview somewhere he was on purpose not peaking too early because he said that last year he was much better in Tirino than the week after in Milan San Remo. So he could be there. I mean, he's been there basically all the years. I mean, when it was van der Poul and Pogacchar and Van Ard, Ghana was there too. Two years, three years ago, I think.

I actually prefer if I had to pick one of those two. I would disagree. I would say I like Ghana to stay with them and Pitcock to be dropped because the climbs are so fast and mild that Ghana, you know, Ghana's FTP is above 500 watts. Because he's so light, his FTP is significantly lower. I think it's harder for him on those like really power climbs. But I mean, he's, he's obviously very talented.

Today's, he won today. That was 9% average. It's like a better gradient for him. I, if I had to pick one though, I would say I like Ghana to stay with him. Yeah. And PidCut. But those are, you know, to do, on the contrary, it's obviously, you know, it's, it's better for Ghana and

Van der Poule and even Van Art and Pogachar I mean for Pagachar doesn't matter where they I mean if it's on the flat on the downhill on uphill it's it's good everywhere for him but Chippresa and especially Pogjo it

climbs that on the wheel you still you get a big advantage you need to go you know I'm not necessarily sure that Pitcock would get dropped even with that much less power and you know what I mean he's the greatest I think he's the greatest

descender of the whole Peloton I think he might be the greatest of all the time. Who knows? You know, like if they look at each other on the top of the podjo and he gets five meters, man, he could be gone. You know. That's true. That's true. Yeah.

So the question would be. The question. Who is going to show up tomorrow with a dropper seatpost? Can you still do that? Is that allowed? I think so. I would, I mean, I would be not, I would not be shocked if Pitcock has the dropper. But you bring up a good point.

The last Samaday Mahorich drop receipt post wins on the dissent in 2022. The only one, I guess. Unfortunately, that's the last, like let's call it wild card major race winner. Because since Moorich won that, I was sorry, Dylan Van Barrow won Perry Rubet that year. But since Vanbaro won that, it's been Remko, Pagachar, Vanderpoll, winning every major race with the exception of Biasper Phillips and winning San Remo with the help of Matthew Vanderpoles. So usually it comes from this elite group. What do you think about Watt Van Ard?

Does he have a chance? I think so. I think Walth is in great shape. His form is going up. He's not the favorite. He's definitely not the favorite. But at the same time, I'm also not sure he's getting dropped, you know, especially if they predicts. The big question.

The headway. I think the issues I'm seeing lately with Walt is that he has, you know, gotten worse at positioning, obviously because of his many crashes, that's for sure. So I'm a bit worried about his fighting for position at the bottom of Chippresa. And for him to come back to the front, it will take, he usually starts in like 40th, 50 position, which is acceptable if, you know, if you want to have a chance to win. so it's going to be difficult but you know he's not necessarily getting dropped and then you know if he's there after a race of 300k he can still win in the sprint yeah if you're if you're looking for people that can win it let's say a group of five goes to line six and there's a sprint it's still not as random as you think because it's a 300 kilometer race there's not many riders with the quality to win a sprint after that much been he's won this race before it's the only monument he's won. I think it's not impossible. He wins a sprint. Probably not likely, as you say,

because of the positioning. Someone that I could see winning, Matthew, his teammate, Matthew Brennan, plus 2,200, is Brennan getting dropped? You know, like is he a better climber on these types of climbs than Pitcock is something I'm wondering. And he could, he could flat out beat everybody in a sprint. He could be the fastest sprinter at the line if he gets to the line. He's fast. He's fast, but, you know, again after 300k it's a different game um listen i think we have to have him in mind but uh there's a small there's a small chance i don't i don't think uh if because if brandon is there i think there's going to be other guys there who are also fast um i would kind of think if brennan is there i'm i'm almost sure that phillipson will be there too yeah i mean that's fair with the with

Philipson is really strong after a hard race. The thing is, though, what we just said earlier in the show, if UAE is serious about getting Pagachar off the front solo, even if that doesn't work, the speed is going to be so high that it's like a nuclear war for, it's a nuclear event for sprinters. I just, if we're going 37K an hour up the Tchreza and 39K an hour up the Pogio are any sprinters there, I don't know. That seems hard to imagine. Yeah, no, normally not.

Normally not. Which it's wild to watch this change before our eyes because as recently as 2020. I went back and watched the year that Caleb Ewan remembered he was third. I believe that was like 2022. And maybe he was in second position on the on the on the on the on the on the, and it kind of was attempting to attack. Yes. It looks like they're riding in slow motion.

even that recently, you know? It is wild how fast these climbs have gotten. And UAE bringing this team is only going to make it faster unless they totally biff it. It's hard to imagine, actually, it not being just... I think we're, like, we got to buckle in because Pagatja is going to try to get away solo. Yeah.

Against Spencer, you know, it's, okay, they have, obviously they have a strong team on paper, but it's not a walk in the park to get all those. guys at the front in at the bottom of the chipresa that's difficult you know there's going to be three guys with with pavacar they're not going to be all six there for Novak is not going to be there because that's the guy who's going to have to do all the pulling before florian Vermears probably also probably also so we're going to have who we have del Toro Kristen who is you know doesn't have the experience of those races yet

and who else Groschagner Magnolty but you know how good are these guys fighting for a position that's the big problem yeah

the thing about McNulty he wins a lot of big races like a lot of world tour level races more than you think so he's got to be decent that's more in stage races no I mean he won like GC Quebec last year

remember yeah yeah yeah but you know that's not the same race Spencer you're kind of it's a race of attrition. If you're strong, you're automatically in front. This is completely different here. Yeah.

I mean, he was fourth at Maryland cycling classic. You got to be a huge race, man. Huge race. A wizard to be up there. Also, he just crashed it. Remember, he just crashed out of Peronese. That's, yeah. We'll see how he's recovered.

But I did feel like two years ago, they missed a big, I felt like they miscalculated. And you got to have like big bodies on the Trapressa. They can put out big numbers. I'd assume that's why they brought them to just throw down the Watts and try to get rid of people. But now that you're saying it, the positioning could be a problem. You know what team is actually really good when you look at it is Fizma. Van Art, this guy, Timo Killech, he's unbelievable right now.

Christoph Laporte, Mateo Jorgensen, Matthew Brennan. They're going to add, obviously, more riders. But all of those guys are very good and very good at positioning except for Van Ard's recent. position in troubles. So you could see them having multiple riders in a group. And then are they putting people in a pretzel because someone attacks and then what do you do if Vizma has Jorgensen, Van Art and Brennan in a group? Yeah.

I think I think we forgot about Jorgensen. I think Jorgensen, if they go on the Chippresa, Jorgens is there for sure. With what I've seen from him in Tereno, he's going to be there. if he gets in good position of course nobody even with that with this condition he's not getting you know he's staying with I think it's the best I've ever seen him

or five guys Jorgensen is going to be there I was going to throw a wild card out Gorian Gordon who won stage seven of Perrinis not on the star list right now so he was plus 15,000 maybe he was

priced that way because it's not clear he's actually going to the race. But maybe Ineos is all in for Ghana too, right? This potentially could just be their best chance of winning this race is Felipe Ghana. I mean, he's, you know,

he's always been there in the final. Two runners up in the last three years, yeah. Yeah. So, yeah, it's definitely a race that suits him perfectly. I think I calculated in 2023.

So this is your Vanderpull one solo. I think Ghana did something like, like 700 watts average up to the pogeo for five minutes. So he can, he has these climbs, like he has the ability to climb up them fast, believe it or not. But if you had to pick a wild card, who would you pick? Man, pit cock. Yeah.

I mean, that's, this is the state of modern cycling that our wild, your wild card is one, two, three, four, fifth favorite. You just don't see a lot of, you don't see a lot of random riders winning monuments. Like, you don't really see anyone outside of Vanderpull and Bagachar winning monuments anymore. So I do think Pitcock would be

as close to a wild card as we're probably going to see. My wild card would be Matthew Brennan, I think, at plus 2,200. I think he could win. I think that would be somewhat shocking, especially for someone of that age that's never won a race of that distance. Yeah.

It's going to be almost the first time. always the first time, you know? Yeah. The thing is what, where has he been racing lately and what, what have we seen from him? We saw him in Australia. He was good there. Well, then he won Kern, Brussels, Kern. He won Kuhner, yeah.

And then, since then, has he raced? I think he's been at the, he's been at altitude since then, I think. Okay. That's the Vizum special, right? You don't do these races, but you go, you go do altitude before classic targets. Yeah. We have a new first also in cycling. I don't know if you saw.

I mean, it's not related to the classics or Milan Saint-Rémo, but how about Primo's Rochlech's plan? No races in, no races in May, June, and July. No races. He's on vacation. So he's going to race until April and then no more races until the start of the world. that's ridiculous well he's minimizing the chance of crashing I guess

it would be one thing that's I'm looking at them now I can't believe that four months yeah I mean obviously listen if he if he's full into win the Vuelta and he wins it he would be you know a loan record holder it would be his fifth Weltana he won his 34 so that was obviously be huge

but man I'm going to imagine that his salary is substantial, very substantial. And for an employer to allow one of your star riders to not race during three months, that's a big gamble, man.

It's a huge gamble. That is a big gamble. Who's their GC? So at the Giro, it's going to be Pellazzari. Yeah, Pelizari and Hindley. And Hindley. and tours Lipowitz and Remko. Remko.

Yeah, and then everything in for Primos at the Vuelta. Yeah, I mean, they have the depth to make it work, but I've never seen this before. I mean, like professionally wise, he, Primos will be ready. You know, I think he probably considered that he can prepare better, especially for a three-week stage race. You know, maybe you come in the first two, three days, you're a bit off in terms of race rhythm, but in a three-week stage,

it doesn't really matter that much. The way they train nowadays, you're full of energy physically and especially mentally. You're fresh, you know. So you'll see maybe it's another stepping stone towards a completely different approach. Like, you know, they don't race at all

and just, you know, show up for their big goals. And that's it. It's already the case with the big guys. I mean, big riders, they don't race anymore where they don't think they can win. And Primos, he has a house in teens, I believe. So I assume he's just going to be up in the Alps all summer.

I don't think in teams. I think it's close to, it's close to, uh, it's close to, uh, I don't like that. I want, I want you out altitude, Primos all summer. He's going to be at altitude for sure. So we watch, you watched Milana Torino today, Pitcock one, as we said. I think we both thought Primos was going to smoke that. Yeah. The way he looked on.

I mean, you know, he's going to. way he looked, I mean, his cadence is ridiculously high. I mean, it's, it's amazing. If you're able to do that, you mean, you have to be in great shape to have that kind of cadence. But yeah, when Pitcock went, nobody had a response. Because Primos finally only finished third, no, not second. He finished third. It looked to me like he had a sprint in him. Maybe he could have gotten second, but did not think it was worth sprinting by Johan. By the way, great, great appearance of Kiana Utrebruks, fifth place. Yeah, she looks really good.

He was straight back after his wrist fracture in Comedda Valenciana. So that's, you know, that's a really good result. Yeah, like right there with Pelazari. And the Sepeda cousins, I believe, were like very active on that, on that final climb. But this guy, you know this guy's Sebastian Berwick. He was seventh. Yep.

He has a hard time finding contracts, but. By the way, his father is a listener of the. podcast. Really? I've got messages from him already, you know, that we we need to, you know, check out his son. I mean, I do remember him. He was he. He was on Israel, I think. He was on Israel and he was in the final group of a, it was like a zero breakaway. I believe in 20. And then I think he was, was he not on, was he not on Burgos or now he's on Kahural. Yeah, I know that. Yeah. after Israel, where was he? He went straight to Kaha in 2024.

So he's been on there for two years. This is his last year. Yeah, good climber, man. Good climber. And to be there, I think he was like, he was top 10, no? Fifth, sixth? Seventh, I think. Seven.

Yeah. And you have to be, you have to be pretty good to be in the top 10 in that race, like really good. So, yeah, hats off to him. Really. We are, we are, dad, Berwick, we are following him. I did not know that about his dad. I just randomly brought him up. 2023, stage 12, Gere de Tadalia, he's third.

And I remember he stuck out to me because he was on Israel at the time. I'd never heard of him. Very good climber. Doesn't get a contract that next year. But he's on Cajara now who's going to the tour. So now he's got a chance to start the tour to France. Yeah. They should definitely mean, they have to take him.

You have to take it. They can't. By the way, you see Spencer the News? You're one of your favorite teams, Karen Farma. They're quitting the sponsorship. The team is finished off. Is it yet? There is an argument to be made.

Is it ever going to get better than that Vuelto two years ago, right? That's going to be very difficult. Three stage wins. I'm going to say no. And then before we go, the other race of today, what is the name of that? Nokre. Nogre course. Very easy to say.

Super impressive win from Philipson. very sad for Alex Sargent who got caught. We thought he was going to stay away. Seigard. Jonah Killy was that he was in the breakaway last man standing. American rider, I'd never heard of this guy, 22 years old.

He's on a Belgian continental team. Last year he was on a Belgian club team. And then he was on a French club team. Oh, Aksum Provence. So like truly taking the hard road. You know, like not racing in the U.S. at all, seemingly committed full-time to Europe. And then to be on these teams can't be easy culturally and then to be last man standing in the break.

Really impressive. And then if I'm not mistaken, he crashed in the last, in the sprint. Yeah. I was getting ready for this podcast. I missed that. My son said, oh, the guy from the U.S. crashed. I was like, I can't be right. I think there's no way.

He did. He was like, why would he be mixing it up in the sprint after being on the breakway? but I'm seeing he's DNFed, unfortunately, so he must have crashed. Wow. Wow. That, yeah, the impressive ride, like, that is a hard road to just go, like he's eighth the tour of Albania, 2023. Like, these are not easy races to be throwing yourself into at that level.

Yeah. All right, with Johan, anything else about San Remo? No. So you're Vanderpola on Pagachar. I think probably, we, went through a lot of different scenarios. I think probably one of those two guys wins because nobody can climb with them right now. Yeah, I think so. Well, thank you. And we'll be back right after the race with hopefully George and Kathy Lance Armstrong's on vacation for spring break

will not be able to join us, but I'll be back for the other monuments. And we'll speak soon. Okay, thanks, Spencer. Okay, bye.