THEMOVE - Can Pro Cycling’s Relegation System Be Fixed? | Vuelta a España Stage 8 Analysis & Stage 9 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: August 30, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jasper Philipsen's eighth stage win of the Vuelta a España on a quiet sprint stage into Zaragoza. Outside of Philipsen's dominance, they discuss the releg...ation of Elia Viviani, and Johan gives his thoughts on what the UCI could do to fix the sport's vague rules on relegations and Yellow Cards in bunch sprints. Before they depart, they preview tomorrow's summit finish, discussing how he thinks the race will unfold and who presents the best betting value. AG1: Head to https://DrinkAG1.com/themove to get a FREE Welcome Kit, including a bottle of Vitamin D and 5 AG1 Travel Packs (a $76 value), when you first subscribe!  Ridge Wallet: Ready to upgrade your wallet and maybe your ride? For a limited time only head to https://ridge.com and use code [THEMOVE] at checkout for 10% off your order AND a chance to win Ridge’s biggest sweepstakes ever—a Lamborghini Huracan Sterrato, a Hennessey Velociraptor, or $100,000 in cash. No purchase necessary to enter, but every dollar you spend gets you more entries. Hims: Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/themove or your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary. Based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate.  Ketone-IQ: Take Your Shot— Get 20% off your order at https://Ketone.com/themove and use the code THEMOVE. LMNT: Get a free 8-count Sample Pack of LMNT’s most popular drink mix flavors with any purchase at https://DRINKLMNT.COM/THEMOVE. Find your favorite LMNT flavor, or share with a friend. Be sure to try the LMNT Sparkling — a bold, 16-ounce can of sparkling electrolyte water. Helix Sleep: Their LABOR DAY SALE is ending soon: 27% off all orders on the site Go to https://HelixSleep.com/TheMove. Make sure you enter our how name after checkout so they know we sent you!  Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 It's also, I mean, obviously, due to the fact that Little Trek comes here with a team also around Chikone, so there's... Well, who's now looking like he could maybe win the whole thing, so... Well, we'll see. We don't know, but we don't know that yet, but he looks good. They kind of have to believe that, though, right? He looks good. I think he looks good. He looks good for podium. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with the Johan-Bernil. We are breaking down, stage eight of the voice.
Starting point is 00:00:30 Welta, Espanyo, won by Jasper Philipson, over Ethan Vernon and Arna Maret in a pretty, not-routine bunch sprint. It was not the most exciting day, but the final kilometers were quite hectic, Johan. I'm excited to get your take on that. And when we are done with that, we will preview tomorrow, stage nine, a summit finish. Before we get into it, let's take a quick break to hear from our partners, and then we'll get your thoughts, Johan, on the stage. everybody our partner for today's show is ag1 the daily foundational nutrition supplement that supports whole body health i drink it every day i gave ag1 a try because i was tired of taking so many supplements and wanted a single solution that supports my entire body and covers my nutritional basis every day i wanted and i needed better gut health a boost in energy immune system support and i hate taking pills and vitamins i won't do it i will just fall off the wagon but with ag1 i am doing it every morning it's
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Starting point is 00:04:24 So, Johan, today's stage rundown will be short. It started. There was a three-rider breakaway with John Boo and two other people whose names escape me. But they were out there. They were being pulled in by the Peloton. The GC teams were at the front, very active coming into the finish. It was a circuit finish, if I'm not mistaken. I was not watching this stage.
Starting point is 00:04:46 Maybe as close as I have others. When it got to the final kilometers, it was pretty hectic. We had picnic post-in-all up there. interesting to me, like Alpison does this thing where they stay, they just like stay back until like four or five kilometers to the line. You don't even see them. They come forward. The only wrinkle of the day, I don't know if you've noticed like throughout the whole year. The playbook is Alpison or whatever the sprint team is, gets to the front. They have three riders in a row. They launched their sprinter first. Their sprinter wins. No one can come around them
Starting point is 00:05:16 because the speed is so high. Today it was so hectic. Alpison had two riders at the front. Philipson was buried though. He was back behind El de Viviviv. So his leadouts completely disconnect from them. They pull off. Viviani goes. Philipson has to follow Viviani, sees a gap on the left-hand side of the road, goes through the gap. He's getting squeezed by a floating, weaving Viviani, who is, let's just say, in a veteran move, trying to pin him against the barriers so he can't pass him. Philipson gets around, though, like three, something like three pedal strokes in the last 25 meters, and he just shot around him on that left-hand side. It wins the stage. Viviani, though, gets relegated. He was always going to get relegated, even if he won that on the line, and then Vernon is promoted the second. Marr at third. Other notes are Matt Patterson gets the full points at the intermediate sprint
Starting point is 00:06:08 and then finishes outside the top 10. So, like, yet again, it's kind of like two steps forward for Pedersen, one step back. So he's still only, he's nine points ahead of Ethan Vernon. Like, it's not a blowout lead at the moment in the Green Jersey classification, But Johan, what are your big takeaways from the stage? Yeah. Well, as you said, Spencer, you know, uneventful stage. I saw exactly the same as you did.
Starting point is 00:06:37 Lotto was, in my opinion, the best lead-out team today with Alex Seigart, who did an impressive pull. And then Yaspur de Bois launching Elia Viviani. Alpacin was good also with Ricard and Blancel. as usual, but as we said, Philipson loses the wheel, drafts of Viviani and comes around. I mean, there's no surprises, right? I didn't see Viviani. I mean, we hadn't talked about him yet, and we didn't even mention him as one of our potential winners yesterday, but it's still Elia Viviani.
Starting point is 00:07:17 It's definitely not the Viviani anymore we have seen. He will never, I don't think he will ever reach that level again. But I was quite impressed with him. You know, I mean, he was a part of the fact that he got DQed. And I would like to debate a bit about that a bit later. But it would have been nice, man, for Viviani. This is obviously not a super strong sprinters field. And for him, I mean, it was telling because I don't know if you saw how disappointed he was after the finish.
Starting point is 00:07:47 I mean, I think he was, I think he was crying. seeing him so close. I mean, this is probably going to be his last year as a professional cyclist on the road, at least. We all know he got this last minute chance at Lotto to get a shot at another season. And for him to be so close to a stadium in the Vuelta, it would have been nice.
Starting point is 00:08:14 I mean, what about his disqualification, Spencer? Obviously, when you look at it, I straightaway also thought, okay, they're going to disqualify him. Was it really that bad, though? What he did? I think in another era, he probably gets away with it. Yeah. I want to, I mean, I'm going to say it differently, Spencer. It definitely was not deliberate.
Starting point is 00:08:38 Viviani is known in the bunch, as far as I understand, as a very straightforward sprinter. you've hardly seen him implicated any controversy in sprints and he was actually also quite open about it he says this is not the way if I win this is not the way I win usually or if I want to win so I think the way sprints have been judged in the last few years this is obviously this was clear that you know it was going to be a DQ um But still, I think, you know, like, yeah, go ahead. Like, he could get through a Philipson. So that would be the argument if you think he shouldn't be relegated. That he did not close him fully against the barriers. He did not. He did not.
Starting point is 00:09:31 But also, if you look, Spencer, I mean, you know, the way these finishes are this, I mean, I just don't mean, there was this bend again, right? What is going on with that? And how do you think we can avoid this in the future? Obviously, listen, I mean, there was a few weeks ago, we saw Danny Van Popple getting relegated in stage in the Tour of Germany, which in my opinion was not a relegation at all. So, you know, if I thought about, okay, Van Popple got relegated, this is going to be the same thing. He's going to get relegated. There's no way they could let it pass. But how can they actually, how can cycling find a way to apply the same kind of judgment in sprints is what I'm curious about?
Starting point is 00:10:22 Because it's always depending on, you know, a judge. I've asked a question a few days ago to a very high cycling official I met. And I asked him, I said, you know, how do you, how do you guys judge this? You know, and I was suggesting that there always has to be, and not just in a commission, but actually on the spot. This is, this is, do you know what the VR, VAR is like in football? The VAR. Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:56 This is the VAR, right, in cycling. There needs to be a freshly retired sprinter present at the VAR, in my opinion. to make that call or to at least advise the people, the commissars. I think that would be a great first step. That's not the case as far as I understand. How can cycling find a formula that it's consistent and that the judgments are always more or less in the same, I mean, it's the same kind of conditions that are applied?
Starting point is 00:11:35 they probably should have like the NHL I hope they still do this so I don't sound like I'm wrong but at least a few years ago they would they just like have people sitting in a room in Toronto like ex-professionals a controversial call happens boom like they're reviewing it you know like no matter where the game is happening they make a ruling they call back to the reps that's it that's the ruling like they probably need something like that where there's ex-professionals sitting in Switzerland just with like a big monitor and it's like call them in what's the ruling and then they call back and they say what it is if you look at the language of the letter of the law it says something like you're not supposed to deviate from your lane not your line your lane but also the point i'm glad you bring that up spencer i've i've been talking about already in the past but i've been thinking about this today you know i mean how difficult would it be and not it's not difficult at all every stage not just not I mean, average because you could also have a sprint probably in a mountain stage.
Starting point is 00:12:41 The mountain stages is more difficult, but at least the stages that are, you know, plan to be a sprint stage. And then if they don't turn into a sprint stage, it's no big deal. But the word lane, not line,
Starting point is 00:12:57 lane. Okay, so you have lanes like in like on a track and field. Yeah. You know, so lanes. And in my opinion, there's two things that would need to happen. Number one, you can go from one lane to the other, but not two. So there's different lanes, right?
Starting point is 00:13:20 And you can move from one lane to the next one. Because you never know if you're close to the line, you know, you may have, you may be pushed or you may have to, but you can never move two lanes. you get out of two lanes you're really cute and then on top of that in order to get that system we need and this this is something that should be imposed on every single organizer every stage that is a sprint stage the last 300 meters need to be a straight line it's not that difficult it's not that difficult you know i mean they can say whatever they want yeah we need to do it no it's the safety of the riders first and it's you know bends even slight bends in
Starting point is 00:14:02 a sprint stage, you know, they say, yeah, we've always done it. Well, we're not doing it anymore because there's a lot of other things that are not, are done. Yeah, a lot of things used to happen that don't happen anymore. So I think, you know, at least 300 meters straight, it needs to be a certain width, that that needs to be the norm, and needs to be imposed on the organizers. And then lanes, it's simple. And then, you know, it would take probably a season or two, but once the, the writers are used to it it's super super simple to always apply the same conditions to for judgment what do you think i'm not too no i was going to say the problem with lane is well the road's moving all over the place so how do you stay in the same lane and then the only problem with your solution is
Starting point is 00:14:48 did you see the finishing straight today could you tell where the finish line was there's like lines everywhere yeah they got it like they would have it's what we see but you know the riders see the arch you know yeah yeah so they would have to like i guess pave or paint over the existing i mean there's a beautiful road looked great but yeah i i like that because i was in colmar france which is very old very old town not many straight roads and i know a tour stage finished there recently and i went out and looked where it finished they picked the straightest road in town it's like well that's how it should be like every town's got a pretty straight road you could probably fine.
Starting point is 00:15:28 Viviani, do you know when the last time he went a grand tour stage, what the year was? Wow. It's actually not as long ago as I thought. Didn't he win a stage in the tour three, four years ago? I remembered that as well. That was not three, four years ago. That was 2019. That's how fast time is moving.
Starting point is 00:15:56 he hasn't won a world tour stage in world tour race in europe since 2019 either the omberg classic which is now yeah so this would have been huge for him really disappointing that he didn't actually super impressive from phillipson that he still won it but another relegation that no one will notice brian kukkard got six i've i've checked that yeah that's going to be a difficult one for kofidis uh yeah the point system because the other day they were only leading uno x by three points and that was 45 points for sixth place out the window that's to me that i i didn't see i don't even i wasn't staring at six the sixth place sprint but i didn't know i didn't check i didn't something must have happened but uh yeah yeah well also spencer 15 the grand tour stage
Starting point is 00:16:42 for jasper phillipson well i was going to have us take a quick ad break and then come back and and shower phillipson with parades because this is pretty impressive okay okay we'll be right back everybody this show is brought to you by hymns if you're watching this this well too closely and you are losing your hair it is tough because you're seeing joala made out there with with an all-time mop you're seeing wanna use so with just effortlessly effortless great hair the guy has a helmet on all day takes his helmet off after the stage still looks good so if if you want to match these guys you used to not be able to but now you can with hymns because through Hymns, you can take the next step with confidence,
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Starting point is 00:19:57 and use code, the move for your 20% off today. Okay, Johan, yeah, you're right. 15th Grand Tour stage win. Do you know the last really, I would say I was more impressed with the sprint, the second, third, fourth, fifth time I watched it because he does not have much time to get around Vivi. And it's like a couple pedal strokes, boom, flips by. like the guy is just clearly the best grand tour sprinter we have currently
Starting point is 00:20:20 do you know the last grand tour he raced where he did not win a stage it was kind of a devastating race for him if you recall because he was getting consistently second placed by Mark Cavendish well yeah the tour de France
Starting point is 00:20:42 no yeah 2021 is the last time That's the last year he started on a grand tour and did not. I think he won 10 stages in the tour, and this is now his fifth stage in the Vuelta. He's never one stage in the Giro. Yeah, he's never started in the Gero. He never ridden the Gero, I think. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:02 Which is, I mean, who are we to give notes to Jasper Phillips' calendar? Yeah, no, listen. It's, you can say what you want. I mean, he crashes hard out of the Tour de France was most likely. likely going to be winning several stages also in the tour. Trains again, you know, wins two stages already now. Now the question is how long is you going to keep going? Because I checked the stages, Spencer, there's nothing left.
Starting point is 00:21:31 I was going to ask you, yeah, is this the last we've seen of Philipson? Yeah. Also, another thing I saw today, you know, because yesterday we spoke about Philipson and Patterson, Patterson was not in the mix today. but he's been up there with sprints the last 20 times that phillipson and peterson sprinted against each other together jasper phillipson won 16 times over phillipson over over peterson wow and mats three times ahead of phillipson and i would that i used to have a subscription to it like the service that would tell you this but like i would wonder
Starting point is 00:22:15 what the gradient of the final kilometers were of those Pedersen wins over Philipson. Wow, that's that would have been good to know yesterday when we were doing it. Yeah, I didn't know that yesterday. Wow, that's impressive. I mean, Pedersen kind of interesting. You perceive
Starting point is 00:22:31 them to be a sprinter, but today when it's really, this was kind of an old school sprint. Like, Philipson had to freelance off a rival's wheel. You don't see that so much anymore. It's also I mean, obviously due to the fact that Little Trek comes here with a team also with around Chicone so there's who's now looking like he could maybe win the whole thing so
Starting point is 00:22:52 well we'll see we don't know but we don't know that yet but he they kind of have to believe that though he looks good he looks good he looks good he looks good for podium yeah he does he does which would be which would be really big for him um a couple things we missed yesterday or we didn't we didn't miss them we were editing ourselves as we were doing the show david go do loses at like 14 minutes yesterday. Santiago loses a ton of time yesterday as well. And then another writer today who did you notice this? He must have sat up.
Starting point is 00:23:27 I cannot imagine he was dropped. One of you so. Yeah. He, I mean, you know, there was this steep, there was this steep little climb on the local circuit. And so he just let it go. So it's clear that he wants to go another time for. stage one.
Starting point is 00:23:46 That's kind of what made me think. The only thing about that, and yeah, it's like, right, that's awesome if he went to another stage. It's like, I,
Starting point is 00:23:55 in my mind, I was like, ooh, now he's only like, six and a half, seven minutes behind the GC guys. Like, what if he stays that close
Starting point is 00:24:01 and gets into a move? Is that start to pressure the other GC riders? That's probably why he sat up, so he's not pressuring them. But do you think for UAE, it would have been better just to not give up that time? And then maybe, things start to get complicated if he gets in two more breaks and then suddenly he's challenging for
Starting point is 00:24:18 the race lead no i think i think they're very realistic about that that i think i us so knows that he's not in the form to be rivaling with at least the levels of almeida vingerard chikone he feels that so isn't that you know you know that too sorry shows you how hard it is to be a gc contender when you think like how hard i use so win on that climb like how hard i use so win on that climb like how hard road to win that stage. Yeah. And that's still not fit enough to survive, like, the violence of the final climb in the GC group. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. You know, someone I should have called him out yesterday, and I didn't. We give him a lot of crap on the show. I was saying, I want to see,
Starting point is 00:25:00 I was so like holding on and finishing 40 seconds back. You know who's been doing that all year? And people, even myself, have been perplexed by it. Tom Pitcock, like teaching himself to, like, I'm dropped, but I'm not going to sit up and chase stages. Like, Pitcock actually has quietly been kind of showing a discipline I didn't know he had. Yeah, no, he's riding. He's riding. Well, I mean, the way it's going right now, I think Pitcock is on track to be top 10 in the world. I mean, not that it's obviously not an unbelievable result, but, you know, he needs to start
Starting point is 00:25:40 somewhere yeah and uh i think he i think he focused on this welta for gc he climbs a lot better than i've ever seen him climb except that one time he went on obdues but that was from a breakaway so and now for the moment he's up there with the top the top gc guys on the climbs um so yeah i think pickc is doing well i mean another example of gcc climbing being so much different than breakaway climbing. Before we move on to tomorrow stage, what do you think happened to Davido do? How does that happen?
Starting point is 00:26:19 I don't know. I don't know. He looked amazing in the beginning of the Vuelta, was up there with the climbers, took the red jersey also, and then now all of a sudden he's 15 minutes down. I don't know. He was, you know,
Starting point is 00:26:39 He was this unbelievable talent. I remember when he came to the pros, he was pictured at this guy with this unbelievable V-O-2 max, watts per kilo, champion, whatever. Won the tour of an year, I think, just before he turned pro. And yeah, I mean, he's just this, I don't know, he's just so inconsistent, you know. I don't know if it's because of his,
Starting point is 00:27:09 position at Krupa'a FDG, I mean, he's there as, you know, the, the flagship rider, basically, for G.C. But for some reason, always falls apart. I mean, I've said it already a few times, you know, like it's, it's, it's, it's typical for young French talents who are on one of those typical French teams. And, you know, the typical French team by excellence is group on my FDG. like you become you become a employee of a government company yeah it's the truth and you know and go do reportedly you know I mean man yeah now and then he does something good but you know for a 2.5 million contract per year he should do a bit more you know i was going to say he's
Starting point is 00:28:03 probably the highest paid government employee in the country i mean i think about actually this shows you We get so excited, not we specifically, just like we as a group. Like a young writer comes along with a great, you were just saying, Paul Seishas with six point, it was like 6.63 watts per kilo for 25 minutes. I looked that up, by the way. I think Juan, not Juan, you said, Juala made a tour of Switzerland for the final time trial, which was about 25 minutes and it was a climb. It was like 6.8.
Starting point is 00:28:32 So that's almost, almost the same level as the guy that was going, that won the tour of Switzerland was going to the tour to support. but you like you can hear these numbers you see these performances and you can project out what their career should be go do is a great example of like well you can have all the tools it just isn't coming together in the way it needs to like you never really know how people are going to project out as finished professionals yeah yeah definitely definitely disappointment i mean i thought that godi was new going to do a decent world i even the top five i mean he's been I think close to top five in the past when several stages already.
Starting point is 00:29:13 So in this field, I think I was thinking he would be up there. But, I mean, he's probably going to be in one of the next stages in a breakaway and win a mountain stage. Yeah. And am I right in thinking, I'm just off the top of my head, the most successful French writers recently come from non-French teams, right? like Philippe Schauber, not Philippe Chaubert is Belgian. Like when Al-Filippe was chasing that tour success, that was now he was on the French team.
Starting point is 00:29:48 Yeah, like, am I missing a French rider on a French team? But probably. Even think of. I mean, look, I mean, it's not even about the tour, but I mean, okay, he was sick this year. But, you know, last year and the year before, Christoph Laporte on Visma, Yep, exactly. Some really good races, you know. Great example.
Starting point is 00:30:12 One good and the game was European champion. Yep. His first altitude camp was after he left, Coffitis. Goffides. Just hard to imagine. But anything else on the stage, Johan, before you want to go, preview tomorrow's stage. No, I think, I think that's it. I think we've, I mean, it's not much about it except the sprint and the DQ or the relegation.
Starting point is 00:30:37 it's not a disqualification it's a relegation right not but they do get yellow cards which did he get a yellow card they both got yellow cards viviani and kukkart so if they have another if they get another one they're out i believe it's two in one race three in one month six in one year so yeah i think i think the risk of getting kicked out is small because the probably the next bunch print is probably going to be in Madrid so well do you still need to make it till there so I would be if well I guess these guys don't have the luxury they probably have to stay in the race but that would be bleak can me you imagine that being a sprinter on the first rest days thinking the next sprint stage is the last day of this race yeah that would be hard um any sprinters that stay in the race I I'm
Starting point is 00:31:28 impressed and that explains why like tim earlier's not here like they don't they don't uh that that's That's a tough sell. That's also probably why, you know, the biggest rival for Matt's Pedersen for Green will be one of the GC riders and not another sprinter. Yep. Yeah, that's a good point. I am curious. I mean, Vernon just can't climb like Pedersen, as we saw yesterday.
Starting point is 00:31:53 Like, that was what did you say? That was the most cumulative climbing meters. Well, actually, there's one state, just today I found out there's one stage that is almost identical. So stage 20, the stage in. in Madrid over Navasarada and La Bola de Mundo has like 10 or 20 meters more than yesterday stage. Okay. Yeah. But the fact that Pedersen was there until the final climb shows you, like he could, he's not
Starting point is 00:32:17 going to be beaten by another spinner probably. It will come from Vindigard, who is 50 points back. Sounds like a lot, but if Vindigard starts winning these mountain stages, that gets complicated, me might not though. We don't know how that's going to play out. But, okay, let's go, let's take a quick break and then we'll preview tomorrow's stage 9. Everybody, this episode is brought to you by Element. You hear, you hear him talk about it all the time, but Lance is a big sweater. And you know what? So am I. I'm not as vocal about it. But he has come out and pronounce himself a sweater. So it's not so embarrassing. For me, and I'm not going to lie. This is, I'm obsessed with Element. I would use Element, whether they were our partner or not. It's one of my favorite products I buy for my own rides. It has 1,000 milligrams of sodium, 200 milligrams of potassium, and C. 60 milligrams of magnesium, no sugar, no gluten, no artificial ingredients, no BS.
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Starting point is 00:35:38 Make sure to enter our show name after checkout so they know we sent you. That's helixleep.com slash the move for 27% off your order. Okay, Yohan, tomorrow, stage nine, we are, we're out of the oddly time sprint stages, the Saturday primetime sprint stage. Not quite sure why that happened, but this is a classic vault of stage. It is. first categorized climb is the last categorized climb it's the it's the final climb 13.3 kilometers long 5.2% doesn't sound that hard but the first half it's really a climb in two halves the first let's say
Starting point is 00:36:11 seven kilometers all over 7% with some kilometers over 8% average and then the last half is like 4% or lower average with the last kilometer being like 2 and a half percent so either you get away in the first half and stay away, or you're with the G.C. group and you're sprinting out of a small G.C. group. The odds currently are. Yonis Finnegaard. Once again, I don't understand these odds. Jonas Finnegaard plus 550. He's not a known summit finish sprinter. Juan Euso's second at plus 700. J. Vine plus 900. Julio Chocone plus 1400. David Gadu plus 1,800. Mark Salar plus 1,000. Jbalamata plus 2,000. Tom Piccock plus 2,000. Antonio Tiberi, plus 2,200. It goes on and on,
Starting point is 00:37:01 a Marco Freego plus 2,500. That's another guy that's been good. But we'll call them out and we need to. Once again, go to NXTBets.com slash bet outcomes. If you want to actually lay some action down, it will tell you how to do it and where to get the best price and the best sign-up bonus. But, Johan, how is this going to play out? Break away your GC and who's going to win?
Starting point is 00:37:20 Difficult one. You know, Valde Scaray, it's as you said, a 13-kilometer climb harder at the beginning. The last 3K are easy. I mean, easy depends on the speed, of course, of the, of the group, but it's like, you know, 2%, 3% max. I checked out, actually, it's, it's, this is in La Rioja, in the, the wine, the famous wine area in Spain. It belongs to La Rioja, Valde Scaray. It's a small ski station.
Starting point is 00:37:52 A stage with just one big climb, so a Uni Puerto, Monopuerto, stage as call it. I think breakaway is a potential outcome. As long as it's okay for Thorsten Train and Varain, I think they will let a group go. I'm going to go for Jay Vine again. He's plus 700. I think a breakaway can make it, especially because that last climb is not super, super difficult, and I think a breakaway can get enough. It's going to depend. It's going to depend on Visma, what Visma wants to do. And since the climb is not ideal for you and us, I would think that they're not going to put too much effort into absolutely wanting to bring the break back.
Starting point is 00:38:41 And as long as the break is okay with the time difference to the red jersey, I think Thorsten Dren can hang on tomorrow on Red again. Jay Vine for me seems like a good option at plus 700. He might be plus 900. now. I refresh the page. I'm going to go, I'm going to go super J Vine. The same exact thought. I don't think Visma is going to pull it back because I don't think the final climb. I bet they don't like the final climb. They don't think the juice is worth to squeeze. That's the phrase we've been hearing all week. I'm going to go want to you so plus 700. The fact that he was sitting up today
Starting point is 00:39:20 tells me he is targeting the stage. He's trying to win another stage. He's probably stronger than Jay Vine. I think I said two days ago. I didn't think he was, but that was really, that was a really impressive stage man. So I'm going to go, Iuso, to win out of the break. And how much, um, what's, what are his odds? He's plus 700. Okay. I mean, pretty good. I see how, honestly, you could bet both of these guys if you wanted to. How much did he lose, actually, uh, I use so, I use so. I don't find him in the results. Well, if he didn't finish, that's bad.
Starting point is 00:40:02 He lost five and a half minutes today. Oh, wow. So second to last. Yeah, okay. And Jay Vine last. Jay Vine lost. Yeah. Jay Vine lost six minutes.
Starting point is 00:40:15 So both of those guys are going for it. So, yeah. I think there's another possibility, Spencer, that if it is G. I think it's going to be difficult. We're going to see a group again, in my opinion. There might be some attacks at the beginning of that climb, but then they won't get far enough away, and especially if it's again, Jonas and Chikone and Almeida,
Starting point is 00:40:44 you know, they're not going to ride full because they will be wary of, okay, somebody might attack from behind. So I could see, if it's a G.C. I could see, for example, Chikone winning this. because he's probably one of the fastest guys of the GC guys. And especially at plus 1,600, I'm going to pick him as my second choice in case it's the GC riders.
Starting point is 00:41:08 I was just fighting it out. I agree. I was just looking at him thinking, hmm, I kind of like that rider better than the one I was going to pick. I do think Chaconay probably this is the Chikone stage. I guess the question is does a little trek hole for him? Uh, probably not because now they're thinking about G.C.
Starting point is 00:41:25 it would have to Visima would have to decide they want it back but if it is I mean also if you think about a little track I mean and especially on the clan who are they going to pull with right you know Matt's Pederson
Starting point is 00:41:39 yeah Matt's Patterson basically do everything yeah but it is kind of it's the problem is the climb is inverted if it was the opposite yeah and it was 5% for the first half Matt's Pedersen would be great Matt's Pedersen probably won't be there after that and then you could have
Starting point is 00:41:55 imagine actually getting close and then this breakaway dangling and no one no one in the gc group has the firepower left to pull it back and it's just like you're watching this frustrating excruciating moment if you've bet on the gc group um i'm going to go out made up plus 2000 thought he looks pretty pretty strong pretty punchy yesterday and he kind of he's not a great sprinter but at the top of these climbs sometimes he's like it just has like such a big engine you can just kind of get on the front and no one can get around him so that's what I would be betting on happening. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:29 Why is Jonas Vindigard at plus 550? I mean, is this, he has, I guess, he's looked pretty fast in the first week. And also, I mean, also in the tour, he also showed, I mean, he was also going fast. I mean, he didn't, he was up there in some of the sprints. Yeah. You know, so, I mean, anytime that today went, he was basically, basically almost on the wheel. So, but he's not here.
Starting point is 00:42:59 Yeah. But I guess being on a wheel is a little different than. Yeah. Like how many times have we really seen them like smoke people and sprints? We did in this race, I guess. Not many times. But I think he's the favorite because of his pedigree. You know, that's, I think that's.
Starting point is 00:43:16 And he did win the stage in the sprint here already. True. That was like 8% though. That was quite steep. Yeah. Yeah. It's like two and a half. percent that's that's a different ball game yeah for sure but yeah you're right he has one in sprint
Starting point is 00:43:31 it's his pedigree so that makes sense why he's the favorite um chukona and chikone that would actually be fun to see them sprint against each other i don't think it's going to happen i think it's breakaway well anything else before we go no spencer that's it all right well thanks johan and we will be back tomorrow for stage nine and the pre-stage no sorry we won't be back tomorrow we will be back on the move on the move recap on monday yeah yeah yes don't listen to what i just said anybody we will not be back we're taking sunday off and then we'll be back on monday okay thanks and we'll talk soon

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