THEMOVE - Can Seixas Topple Pogačar at Liège-Bastogne-Liège? | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: April 24, 2026

Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel go through the final few stages of the Tour of the Alps, which saw Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe's Giulio Pellizzari win the tough final stage and seal up the overall classification, before previewing Sunday's showdown between Tadej Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel, and teenage sensation Paul Seixas. They break down where they think the winning move will go, and if anyone can potentially keep Pogačar from getting his third straight win at the Monument. Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team Caldera Lab: A small habit with big results. Go to https://CalderaLab.com/THEMOVE and use code THEMOVE for 20% off your first order. Rugiet Ready: Over one hundred fifty thousand men have already made the switch to Rugiet. Getting started is simple. Rugiet connects you with a board-certified doctor online and your treatment gets shipped discreetly to your door. For a limited time only, head to https://Rugiet.com/THEMOVE to get 15% off your order.  

Italy needs a rider that is at the front, you know, because if you look at Italian cycling right now, you know, there's, there's a, there's, there's a, there's just really good races, you know, we have Milanson-Ramo, we have Tour of Lombardy, we have Tireno, we have the Giro. I mean, those four, those are four like top, top, top-level races plus a bunch of other really races, but there's not one single Italian world tour team right now, which is, which is actually unbelievable. everybody welcome back to the move plus i'm spencer martin i'm here with yon bernio we are going through the last week in cycling news and race results the tour of the alps the five stage race through the t-roll in south teemarle region in austrian italy just wrapped up julio pelazari the 22 year old on red bull borahansgara won with an impressive final overall stage win to wrap that up with the eneos duo of time in arnsman and egan bernal coming in behind Behind him, I'm now forgetting which one got second and which one got third.

It was Eganbernail's second moving ahead of his team. He actually, Aronsman, bumping him down the third. Pelazari was super impressive. And then we will preview Leage Best on the age in the second part of the show and give our picks who we think is going to win. But, Johan, before we do that, let's just talk about Tour of the Alps before it has gone from our brain forever. I'd say the main takeaway is Balzana looked unbelievably beautiful today. Whatever Salty World paid for that race, it was worth it because everyone's going to be moving there after watching that. But what was your big takeaway from the racing all week and then specifically today's tough stage?

Yeah, well, obviously, you just said it, Palizari won. He was the big favorite, Spencer. Red Bull was really strong. I would first want to go back a little bit to yesterday's stage, won by Leonard Yash, German rider, 25 years old, who is still on the Devo team of Tudor. And if I'm not mistaken, he is very new to cycling. He's an ex-speed skater. Whoa.

So another athlete from another sport. In the breakaway, he was away with another rider, the Austrian guy was it. There was a Kepplinger who's an ex-roar, high-level rower on Bahrain. So, and apparently, Leonard Yaxe comes from a speed skating family. His younger sister, I think, is an Olympian skater also qualified for the Olympic Games.

That was an impressive win from him from that breakaway. He doesn't look like he can climb at all. He's quite bulky, big legs. But he managed to get away from the breakaway and kept his very small advantage. to a charging peloton was i think it was q36.5 pulling for pitcock who had come back into it it was a very reduced peloton so that was an impressive win um from a rider we one another writer we don't know mean i think the first stage was also won by a rider we didn't know right this uh what is it tomasso dati from uh the yuko team or ukio team and they got a third on stage four too yes yes yes yes

Okay, you know, we have to say Tour of the Alps is a mix of there are all kinds of teams, right? I've seen that quite a few World Tour teams have used this race to have their Devo riders join the pros. It was a mix of in the teams and then, you know, second level teams and also third level teams were there, which is also nice. I think it makes for good racing. But today's stage, it was clear this was going to be the decisive stage. It was super hard two times up that big climb. It was a hard climb. 12 kilometer climb, I think, with some really steep parts.

They were kind of fighting for the bonuses because I think Pallizari was in the win because he had won that stage, stage two, I think he won. Bernal was there, Aronsman was there. They were, I think they were four seconds and six seconds down on GC. So there was a bonification sprint. just before the top of the second of the last climb. So initially, in aos was setting the pace. It was a breakaway because Pitcock was in the break with this young Colombian rider

from the Devo team of EF. But they caught them and initially it looked like that was going to be the decisive moment. That bonus sprint, two kilometers from the top of the last climb. And yeah, pretty jari just said, hey, no way. I'm going to make this. Crystal clear, who's the strongest guy here, he attacked with 4K from the top, so two kilometers before the bonus sprint got the bonuses, of course, and was, you know, won very dominantly.

He got 15 seconds on the top and then took another 15 seconds in the downhill. I think he confirms, you know, his quality, his status also as a, a serious podium candidate for the Gero. And then also, you know, seeing Bernal, Egan Bernal at this level is really good. He looked very solid. He was just a bit of the pace whenever it was super fast on the climbs, but he never broke down and was very consistent and finished second today in the stage and also second in G.C.

And then with Tiemann Ardzmann, third position, I think it's a very nice, podium and three guys who are going to be a protagonist in the Gero. Yeah. And I mean, it was super impressive because he didn't have, you said like 15 seconds. It was like probably 10 to 15 seconds at the top. And the road is so steep, it looks like less. And it was Bernal-Arndzman's store, three really strong riders, right behind him. And if you've ever done this road, it doesn't go down right away.

It's kind of a plateau. You would think it'd be harder to stay away as a single rider. ahead of three strong riders on a little plateau, descent into the finish, and he just kept pulling the gap open. I mean, super impressive. Like shows how strong he is. Definitely signals that he's ready for the Giro de Tadalia.

Probably not, probably won't beat Jonas Vindigard, if we're being honest. But, I mean, the Italians must be excited, Johan. Like, this is a legitimate young star, 22 years old. It looks like a podium contender for the Giro de Italia. I would imagine that this is going to be, big, big in the home country.

Yeah, I mean, he was already, was he fifth last year in the Gero? Yeah, it was impressive. Fits in the Gero and fifth in the Valta, which is hard to do in the same year at that age. Yeah, it is. Sorry, six, six that both. Sixth and sixth.

Yeah. You know, he's definitely made a step forward this year. And, you know, has also the confidence of his team. As you say, I also see it very difficult for him to challenge Jonas Wieneggerg, unless something happened that we can't know of right now. But yeah, I mean, listen, Italy needs a rider that is at the front, you know, because if you look at Italian cycling right now, you know, there's there's a, there's, there's, there's, there's, there's, we have milan some ramos, we have tour of Lombardy, we have Tireno, we have the Gero.

I mean, those four, those are four like top, top, top level races plus a bunch of other really races, but there's not one single Italian world tour team right now, which is actually unbelievable. Pellizari's young. He's still only 22, already, you know, already a very established writer. So, yeah, I think the Italian media is going to be excited about this. The fans, of course, also. It looks like he's a very likable guy, you know, and very friendly. I still have these images. in my memory when he was that young was he 19 year old on uh 19 year old on on Bardiani who got passed in the Giro by by Pogacar just mowed down yeah in the file like 500 meters yeah and then uh you know it was there in the tent you know and pogacha gave him his glasses

and he was happy as a kid asking for a signature basically and now he's up there you know so uh that's that's That's really nice, nice to see. But yeah, I think, you know, logics has been respected. The differences were not that big until today, but today I think Berizari made it clear that he was the strongest by far in this race. And also his team controlled it perfectly, the whole, all the stages. You know, Red Bull. Let's talk about them a little bit. You know, they're very present everywhere since the beginning of the season.

You know, I seem to remember, having said, it was, you know, it was after the Majorca races in Valencia races. So, you know, definitely not the level of these races. But I think I remember saying, this is a different team. They behave better. They behave differently in the race. They impose their will on the race because there's a new sheriff in town, Remko Avenapool. But it's not just when Remko is racing. It's basically in all the races.

they are very prominently visible. You know, we see Pellizari. We see the classics team, the Van Deka brothers on a really high level. So I'm sure I'm forgetting another guy, other guys on Red Bull who are really. But they stepped up. They stepped up. It's still not, you know, it's not UAE.

But they are definitely a force to be reckoned with in the majority of the races. Yeah, Johan, they were also great at opening classics weekend, if you remember back to that. Remko Abenapol, obviously not there, but you're right, it's been a big shift in the team. I was thinking today, must be so hard for guys. Like, think of Arensman Bernal's store, all incredibly good riders, but all aged, let's say, 26 to 29 or 30. and then you're having to compete against these guys. Like you mentioned Pellizari getting second at that zero stage. That was in 24, comes back in 25.

He's even better. Now in 26, he's even better than he was in 25. And you're always competing against these guys who just seem to get better every year. Like that would be overwhelming, I feel like. Like, how do you, how would you even deal with that? I think, you know, it's not, it's not mathematical, Spencer. You know, there is obviously the strength of young riders, getting better, younger, and sooner.

But there's always other guys, you know, there, there are guys. I mean, look at, we've gone over this, over these numbers after Tour Flanders and Pariroubet, the top 10 was mainly guys of 30 years and over. You know, it's not because the young guys are coming that when you're 25, 26, 27, You're supposed to be at your best then. Recently we saw, for example, we saw Maudo Schmidt, 26 years old, getting second at Fleshwallone. So, you know, I definitely would not obsess about, you know,

if I'm a cyclist right now and I'm in my mid-20s towards late 20s, I would be convinced that these are my best years. There is no way that you can be on the decline already then. it must be difficult and challenging mentally to see this wave of young guys coming. But then at the same time, it is something that we've been seeing the last three, four, five years. Let's see how all these 19, 20, 21-year-old guys are when they're 27, 28. That still needs to be seen, right?

how if there, and I think it's not just physically, it's definitely a motivational and mental issue. If you're so good, so young, how long can you stay focused and motivated and on the top of your game? That's something that I'm curious to see. You know, I don't totally disagree with that, but people say that. That's just a thing people say. You can't be that young. What professional cyclist at 2021 was not focused though like was that ever a thing no yeah if well i would say i would say pogacha was not focused um when he was that age uh or definitely not as focused as he is now i mean i get we maybe have to set him aside because he did win at tour to france at that age so but but if you look at bogachar that's that i think that's what set bogachar a part of everybody else is that and i keep

saying this, you know, he won two times a tour when he was not 100% professional. He was, he probably thought he was living like a professional, but he was not. You know, he was physically, he was definitely didn't have the body structure. By the way, Spencer, morphology is an English word. I was thinking about that. Yeah, it is. He, you know, it sounds ridiculous now, but it was also a different era where you could get away with being less focused.

and now you you really can't. I mean, the guy was living, think about November, December, January, he basically lived in a hotel in Spain and trained. Like that probably, I don't think your riders were doing that on Discovery and Postal and a stop. No, no, no. But also at this time, they're also, you know, as a young writer, I think you can do that, especially, you know, you know what you want, you're focused,

you're super ambitious. and most importantly, you have no kids. That's, I think, something that the young guys have the advantage over somebody who has a family already. You know, you can't just go three months in a hotel or you need to have your whole family with you. And that's probably not ideal either. So, you know, when you're 18, 19, 20, 21, you focus on yourself and on yourself only. and that's what you're supposed to do as an athlete at any age. But life gets in the way.

And there's also other important aspects of your life amongst them having kids and family, which then obviously becomes a bit of an obstacle in your preparation. I mean, we constantly see it. On the other hand, Yon us complaining about how hard the life of a pro cyclist is, you know, and he recently went on record saying that he would never recommend his children to go into cycling because it's hard on the family. And it is hard on the family. But at the same time, if you want to be the best that's, you know, you need to set your priorities.

I have a lot of thoughts about that. But he's right. I mean, I can't imagine. I should just say up top, I cannot believe people with kids are professional cyclists because what you just said. how like to go away for three weeks like hey guys I'm going to be up on a mountain for three weeks see yeah and that's not even counting the race so I can't imagine that I would say though that's a he makes a lot of money I think it the funny the thing that bothers me a little bit

about Jonas is he tends to just like ignore that like oh I can't believe I have to go do these camps it's like well you are being remunerated at a multiple above what anyone most anyone in the world will ever make in their life. Like there is, it's sacrificed, but there is a reward for the sacrifice. And it's temporary. No, it's not temporary. Yeah. Yeah.

So I do feel like that gets glossed over quite a bit that if I had a career that was paying me between five and 10 million euros a year, I don't know if I would flippantly be like, I would not recommend this to my children. It's like, well, maybe my kids want to be ballers. Maybe they want to live in Monaco. They want to make a bunch of money. So, you know, you got to make money to do that. But did you see who, did you notice who?

This is a hard stage, by the way. I think you said that. But Pellazari proved he was the strongest rider in the race. Like without a doubt, it's funny that people were even fighting for bonus seconds in previous stages because it didn't come down to that. Bernagate's second. This is on the stage. Storer third, Aronsman, fourth. Did you see you got fifth?

Speaking of young riders. Yacobos Omerzell. Omson. 20-year-old Sabinian. Yeah. something to keep an eye on there yeah yeah yeah no for sure i mean he's he's already been knocking on the door he won the baby giro last year uh has been you know considered the the next big talent of of slovenia i i remember last year was it last year last year maybe already two years ago i don't

remember now we uh we had dinner with yoni breikovitch in in slovenia and i asked him i said who's the who's the young guy to to look out for in Slovenian. He said, Omersel. And then a few months later, he won the baby zero. So definitely big talent, that guy. Yeah. And I would say we should, you should always be cautious about these young riders. You can't just project, oh, they're going to get better. They're going to be the best. I would say Pelazari, I do think he's a future star. I mean, this guy's been so impressive. Every time I see him race, same thing with Paul Sig Soss. Every time I see him race, he looks better than when I saw him before. That's, you kind of remind.

I tell Pagachar is every year. He's better than the year before. Gets better. Quick question for you. Why was J. Coalula working on the front through a lot of this stage? What was going on with that? That's a very good question, Spencer. And I don't have the answer.

It must have been for Ben O'Connor, thinking he had a chance to, you know, ride away. First of all, there was a breakaway and they had nobody in it. So, you know, if you want to have a good result, first you have to catch the breakaway. But, you know, you know that on a stage like today's stage with two massive climbs of, you know, 12 kilometers uphill, the breakaway is going to come back by itself because of, you know, the nature of the race. So I don't know. You know what you also see sometimes with teams is that, you know, at some point you are up there with three or four riders. there's one guy who's feeling more or less okay and the other three are hanging on for dear life

and sometimes the writers themselves say you know what I may as well do something and make myself useful and so I'm going to go right at the front because I'm going to get dropped anyway so let's do it you know and then he finds two two candidates of his team who feel the same and they just go to the front and start the right I don't really know why they were doing that. I guess, I mean, you said that Ben O'Connor slipped into the top 10,

but that cannot be a goal for a team. Like, you know, it's better to be in the top 10 than not be in the top 10, but to sacrifice your team for that, especially if it's for top three, it's different. But, you know, if it's eight, nine to 10 plays in Tour of the Alps, that's not really what a team. like J-Co should be riding for. And then on the other hand, okay, what else could they have gotten out of this stage?

Not nothing. So at least they did something useful. It did just have me thinking because let's say you only think about the race in terms of optimizing your finish in the race. So you'd say, don't do that. You should save the team and go later. Is there is, do you think it's a calculation ever of, hey, it's a Friday. Last day of the race, we need like we need to get a workout in. Is that ever a factor here?

Got to get that TSS score up. Not really. Not really, no. I mean, you know, two of the Alps is a hard race. I mean, if you do all five stages, trust me, they have their work done for the week. Whether they've been pulling or not, because the guys who were pulling were, you know, they're somewhat of climbers, but not top climbers. So, no, I don't think that's, that could be considered as a.

reason why they were doing that. I don't know why they did it, man. I don't know. Do you think people ever get concerned at the three and a half hour stage? That's like half as much as you'd be training if you were at a camp right now. Do they ever get concerned about the volume not being high enough? Or is the intensity so high that if stage raises, I mean, especially with this, these were all very difficult stages, even the sprint stages were, I mean, look, yesterday. Yeah, they were all really hard. yesterday was, I mean, yeah, the guy came in by himself and then it was a sprint of what, what was it, 20 guys together. It was 4,000 meters of elevation yesterday. It was, it was longer too.

It was like four and a half hours. So for some riders, that's five hours, five hour a day with 13,000 feet of climbing. Yeah, but five days after each other, Spencer, it's, you know, a stage rate is unless it's an easy, you know, you can say, well, whatever, it's, you know, I mean, it's down to one day now. Back in the days, for example, tour of mercy or something, you know, three or four days, easy stages. That could make you say, in today's cycling, you say, okay, I'm concerned. I'm detraining because the peloton goes easy.

They know it's a sprint. Those things don't happen anymore anyway, Spencer. I mean, which race have we seen this year where it's less than 45 kilometers average? It's only the big mountain stages. And that's already, you know, that's super hard because of the course. So any, any race nowadays, it's full gas from the beginning. When you race, you're, your training intensity in the day cycle. I went on the record.

I think all stage races are hard. I've never thought a stage race was easy in my life. So I don't think this is me saying, hey, these guys got to train. I just remember Simon Yates. It was this big thing at J-Co. I still can't believe it happened. They were so concerned that the Giro was so easy. Simon Yates was doing workouts on the trainer after stages.

And do you want to guess what happened to Simon Yates at the end of this year to tell you that this was happening at? He cracked. He absolutely exploded. He was flying. He was flying. He was flying that. In the first two weeks, he was flying. And then he cracked on the day of called the Finestre, no?

Day before, well, he cracked on that day, but the day before the initial crack showed, it was like a summit finish that he got dropped on. Lost a little bit of the time. Was it on the zoncola? No, it was like an unspectacular. It was kind of one of these like uphill finishes into a town. Now you're taking me back. So stage, let's go back to stage 19 of this year to tell you.

No, that was the finestra stage. So stage 18, Prado Nevoza. And he still holds the lead, but he is dropped and finishes behind, like Chris Frume, Tom Dumiland, Domenico Pozo Vivo, the classic timeless Pozovivo. But maybe that was the end of any gamification of we need to train while we're in a stage race because the stage race isn't hard enough. Is that a myth or is it real?

I don't know. I have difficulties believing that. that a rider would do extra efforts on the home trainer because the stages are not hard enough in a three-week stage race. I can't get my head around that. The only reason I had a job at the time at Villanese where I had to listen to every post-race interview from every rider. And I just remember every day all J-Co was talking about was how they were so concerned about the race being too easy. Maybe a mistake in retrospect. But anything else on Tour of the Alps, I mean, all of these guys that we just mentioned,

mentioned Pelazari, Egan Bernal, Timon Aronsman, who else was up here? Michael Stor, Ben O'Connor, is Ben O'Connor? Yeah, they're all going to DeGir de Tadayo. So this is like a precursor to the Giro to feel confident about Jonas deGriro after seeing this demonstration from Pellizari? No, I don't have a single doubt in my mind that Jonas is one or two levels above everybody. Jonas built four sheds in his yard during this race. He's ready to go.

Finally finished the floor, the floor in the kitchen. I did hear that he stayed at home in between the tour of the wealth of last year. He didn't go to altitude. Just stayed at home. And the guy's got kids hanging off of them, staying at home, still wins the wealth of Spagna. So maybe having kids is actually good for your writing.

Who knows? I've seen somewhere that Jonas has gone on record in an interview that his form is where he wants it to be and that he's really. ready had his ambition is his goal is to win the Giro and he's even talking about winning the tour again that you know they've been switching with today you know two years two years two years two years it's his turn again so he sounds very confident also for the tour where where is he right now do you think uh but he was training on he was straight he was at altitude for sure he was you know that picture that video that went viral there with his ankle socks and

his music box on his on his bike. That was filmed by Sepkus. So I think they were on the Teda. Yeah. I mean, which goes back to, that's hard. It's away from the family. I actually, I would find that to be harder than the racing if I was a pro. Just leaving the family to go to these altitude camps.

I did see Pagachar. I couldn't tell if this was Kern or not. It looked like he was in the Alps. at some altitude camp. With snow? Riding with snow? Yeah, it was like all this snow and stuff. Where would that have been?

He doesn't need to go far. You know, I mean, he can go to, I don't know where. Like Easla 2000 or something? Yeah, I mean, from Nice, where he can basically ride there on a big ride and be in the snow up in the mountains. I don't think he was at altitude right now. Okay, okay. Yeah, you're right.

I didn't consider that. Could have just been on a ride from his house up to it. some alpine peak, but let's take a quick break, the Mold preview Sunday's Leage, Best on Leage. Everybody, this episode is brought to by Caldera Lab, who makes high-performance skin care design specifically for men's skin. This is important since men's skin is 25% thicker, it's oilier and ages differently from women's, which means men need clean formulas engineered for their biology. Caldera Labs products are powered by clean, clinically tested ingredients and breakthrough patent-pending technology, delivering visible results. The three products I've been used.

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down. It's listed at 259.5 kilometers. Let's just call it 260 kilometers through. We're still in Belgium, but we are not in Flanders. We are in the Wallonia region, the French-speaking region of Belgium. Other than the language and the economy and everything else, one of the thing that is different is it's almost, these are almost like mini mountain ranges. You know, they're called hills, but it's a lot, a lot of climbing at this race. A very difficult climbing, a focused race. one day race, usually won by one of, in recent years, at least, won by Tadda Pagachar, who's won the last two years. The two years before that, won by Remko Evanapol. The year before that, won by Tadadipajar. So as is tradition, one of those will win. And I believe one of the years,

Remko won, Pagacchard did not start. The other year, Pagachar crashed early in the race and broke his wrist. So all this, just the, the betty nods to give us, to anchor us and who is, is the favorite for this race, and then you tell me who you think is going to win. Tadipagacier is the favorite at minus 290. That's ridiculous for a one day race. Paul Sikos, second favorite, plus 300 at 19 years old. Remko Hebenapult plus 600. Mateo's two-time champion.

Half as good of odds is a 19-year-old. Mateo Schochoquone plus 2,500. Julia Chocone plus 3,000. Tom Pickock plus 5,000, who was in the breakaway today at 2 of the Alps. Kevin Vaclon plus 6,500. I won't go on because I don't think. Anyone else has a chance to win? But Johann, who's going to win this race?

How's it going to play out? Where's the winning move going to go? I think it's very difficult to not say Tare Pogacar, Spencer. There's a lot of hype now around Paul Sexas and rightfully so. There's also a reason why he's the second favorite, right? With the bookmakers. But man, Liasbaston Lijs is such a hard race. The oldest classic, by the way, they call it Lado

Ladwain in French means the old lady. First, first time ever, raised in 1892. That's how old this race is. And yeah, I mean, it's, there's, you're right, there are no mountains in Belgium. The Ardennes are definitely, the Walloon Ardennes or definitely a hilly terrain, climbs of one, two, three kilometers maximum. Definitely very different than the Flemish are dense, which are also hilly, but that there is more glowing terrain.

I think the difference, and I think that's why Bogacha is such a heavy favorite. It's a monument. It's 260 kilometers, 259, 4,100 meters of elevation. And I think that's why Bogachar is the heavy favorite overpole's excess. Paul Seixas is obviously in top shape. I think that's what's going to make the difference. If you look at where you already have a lot of climbs, I don't know, I don't know how many clams there are,

but definitely more than 15 or 18 climbs, I don't know. But the last four climbs, starting with Ladaud. Laredut is typically, it's not long, but it's steep. And it's usually and historically been always the climb where the decisive move goes, that comes after 225 kilometers. So that's something that Postexas until now, he has not raised that distance yet, I think. That's where the race starts. Can that be true, though?

Because he did the world championships. He may have done a monument already. I don't know about that. But I don't think so. Well, he did Worlds and Lombardia. So, Lombardia, 241, not as long, though. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. World is 270.

Yeah. My mistake. My mistake. But still, Pugachar has this, this is his favorite terrain monuments, right? This is why he wins so many because they're so hard at the end. Good point. And so you have Lareduta after 225 kilometers. And from 225 till 249, those are the last four climbs in a time of 24 kilometers.

The four climbs, there's no, almost no time for recovery. You have Laredud, and you have straight after Lardudud, you go down at bit. You have Code de Cornement, which is not big, but it's where, for example, if you remember correctly, it's where Remko Avenapool dropped Tom Pitcock in one of the race where he wants. So it's like a kilometer and a half, 5%, but you have that pain from Laredudud in the legs. You haven't recovered. Then you have Code de Forge. And then La Roche-Foucon, which comes after 249 kilometers and it's still 10 kilometers to the finish.

So I think for Pogacar, that's his ideal terrain. You know, those four climbs with all the efforts of the 225 kilometers before already in the legs, I think he's going solo. And even with Seychas, I think Pogacar wins. I think he wins solo. For the moment we've seen, Porachar, I think he's stronger than last year. He's improved compared to last year. So I don't see any reason why he wouldn't win again.

I haven't looked at the weather, though. What's the weather going to be? Do you remember this narrative? What was Pagatja not good in? He wasn't good in heat for a while, right? He was only good at. Yeah, well, forget about that. It says, I mean, this is almost perfect by.

weather, 16 degrees, 10% chance of precipitation. Okay, well, that's good for, that's good for everybody else. Because, yeah, 17 degrees, wind is not too bad. Yeah, okay, not bad. Listen, if it's bad weather, he's even going to be more dominant. Although we have seen, we have seen that Seyaz can also write in the bad weather. So is Ramco. I think these three guys are the favorites,

for a reason. Bogachar minus 290. That's pretty insane, actually, if you think about it for a one-day race. But that's how heavy of a favorite he is and how difficult everybody sees somebody else winning this race. What do you think? Yeah, well, the way the math works on that is at minus 290. It means if you think he has a greater than 74% chance of winning, you should bet on him. And that's probably correct, don't you think?

Three and four. If they race, this race four times, he wins three. So that'd be 75%. He's already won it. He's already won it three times. Three times against a lot of these same guys. I think the big wild card is, we're going to talk about people we think are going to do well.

But Remko, I don't think is a problem for him, especially on this course. This is a much harder course than Amstel Gold. This is like the perfect course for Pagachar. Because I'm looking at the last 35K, it's like a shark's tooth. you know it's these really hard climbs as you said back to back to back i think ronko's not a problem for him i think tom pickcock is not you know he won a stage of two the alps he's in the breakaway today but a good tom pickcock is is in the gc group at the end of that stage he's not in the breakway comes back from injury also spencer you know he had this this bad crash in the downhill

of tour of catalunia was you know doubtful i mean i had to skip amstall uh he did tour of the alps in an attempt to get ready for Lees-Paston-Liege, but even if he won a stage, I don't think I mean, today he was not in the GC group because he was in the breakaway all day. He did really, he did really a strong, a strong ride, but

I don't think Pitcock will be there. Not with, not with the top five favorites. I don't think so. He comes back from this injury and he cannot be, he cannot be ready. And also will he be recovered? You know, when today was a really hard stage. It's Friday.

you know travel to Belgium only tomorrow to rest normally you're not recovered for a monument of 260 kilometers but still it's pitcock it's one of those riders who has this incredible talent and can do things that normally nobody else can do but i don't see pitcock in in the top three four or five favorites for for the best on liege now you can't cram it's not like a night before the test you can't cram for liege best on the edge that's not going to work I think the only wild card is I do think Pagotcha's going to win.

I think minus 290s a steep price, but frankly, that's who I'm betting on. I think the big wild card is Paul Sikas. At plus 300, those are generous odds for a teenager who's never done this race before. But everyone's excited about Fleshfulone. You know, he did the-Johan, he did the climb faster than Pagaccha. That means he's stronger than I've seen that post like 100 times, like chill out on the climbing time comparison. people. But I don't think he can hang with with Bagachar. I think the climbs you outlined, that's the perfect terrain for the question is, how long can he hang with him, right?

I mean, he did a good job, man, at Strada Bianchi. It looked for a while there that he, you know, he got gaped a bit. Then he stayed, he stayed together with him. But he got dropped on, he got dropped on the Mont Saint-Anne. Montesanthalo. Yeah. And he kind of had to come around. I believe Pitcock was on the wheel and dropped the chain and then he had to come around. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So he wasn't even in a great position. Yeah. But yeah. I mean, I don't know if those images of Pogacca are climbing that, you know, that climb there in the snow.

If they're recent, I think they are. Man, let me tell you, he looks in great shape. He looks in really good shape. You know, if you look at those legs, those legs are ready. You know, the thing with, I mean, doesn't really matter that much, I think, because it's Pogacar. But let's not forget that UAE is incredibly weakened overall. I think they have like 12 or 13 riders out. It kind of matters.

Yeah. Yeah. So they do not have their strongest possible team. So, I mean, normally, normally it's going to be from the start, everything on UAE. They'll have two or three guys. They have Dominovac and they have. Tim Welland is back. Yeah, Tim Wellens is not not probably not good yet.

He broke his collarbone, right? In one of the. Yeah. But he doesn't have to be, he doesn't have to make it over Labrude. He's just got to set a hard pace, you know. Yeah, yeah, yeah. They actually have some stronger team than I thought originally. Benoit Koznafra.

We know he's good. Yeah. Pavel Sivokov. He's pretty good. Domen Nobeck. Tim Wellens, even a weekend, Tim Wellens. Rune Herogoutes. Herogos, yeah.

And then Staka, Wangen. Okay, so it's going to be Langen, Langen and Hederthos. Those two poor guys, they're in charge of the first one. They're in the first 200 kilometers. Unless you work for a professional team, you will not see them because they will be pulling so early in the race. It's 200 kilometers, those two guys controlling the breakaway. And then it's going to be Novak on Laredud. He did it.

I mean, he did it last year, two years ago. He did an amazing job. That's the bottom. And then it's going to be Walent and Kuznafra and Sivakov to speed up on a lot of. Radoot. And there's not going to be much, many guys left when they, when the last guy of he pulls off. Typically, it should be Kostnerfra, who does the last lead out for Porcachar on

Radood. He's explosive, a bit like Narvaise, you know. I was going to say, he's kind of doing a kind of writer. Yeah, he's like a Duna Narvaeus impression this spring. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that, you know, on paper, that's what you would say, okay, this is the scenario right now. There's always going to be one of those guys who doesn't.

have a great day who feels a bit off, you know, they're going to have to switch positions, whatever. At the end, you know, it's Pugacar. Does it really matter? Probably not. Well, that's not entertaining content. But here's the thing that's really tricky for everybody else.

Let's say Paul Sikas stays with him. Unbelievable ride. He still doesn't win, right? Because he gets beaten the sprint by Pagachar. So it's an uphill battle for him to win. Yeah. Yeah. I would like to see.

I mean, it would be nice if it's a two-man sprint. You never know after. I mean, that would be thrilling. If it was those two guys sprinting against each other, that would be awesome. Yeah. Man, thanks us, though, man, I have to say, Spencer, I mean, this guy is so mature. I've seen the interview after Flash Wallona and I've seen an other analysis of him, of the Mure of We. and he was looking it on the phone and they were filming him and he just broke it down bit by bit.

The way he was telling or recounting the last 600 meters of the mirror of the week, these guys, when you're strong, man, they make it sound so simple. It's like, okay, yeah, here I look back. I saw that we're suffering with. I accelerated a bit. Then I heard that they were breathing heavier and then I did another acceleration and I was gone. Simple as that. that's like when people are like, oh, he's hit the load on his body is going to be too much.

It's like he's not even, the load on his body is less than everybody else because he's, can you imagine during the more to we and that's your takeaway? It's like, I just had to go. That's basically what Demi Volneryne was saying. I've never seen anyone ride a climb. Like she just wrote it as though no one else was in the race. Yeah, well, I mean, she did exactly the same like, I mean, on the Breggen. I think she won it six times, right?

The flesh were alone. Yeah. She did the same. It was the same. She went to the front. She started with a super high gear. High cadence just started riding and accelerating. And one.

Yeah, Demi Vollering is this year. She's on a high level. Like, I mean, Pauline Feron Provost was there. She had no chance. But Pietresa came back. Well, yeah, she was coming. Almost foiled that. And then Demi was like, well, I saw her coming.

So I had to sprint. Yeah. Were you originally not planning on sprinting? You're just going to ride everybody off your wheel? Yeah, yeah. Well, so how do you think we both, I think we both think Pagachar and Paul, I'm really working on this name. Paul sex are going to be the two favorites. How does Rimcoe Evanapult fit into this, this trio?

The third. And he just has to try to not get dropped on Labrudeau? he's going to get dropped on a lot of dudes from pogachar i think but uh yeah just stay steady stay steady and you know one of the scenarios could be that sexas tries to follow pogachar he will try to follow him blows up and then gets reeled in by remco and then they ride together well yeah i was just going to say this is not strata bianchi where it's relatively easy to ride away These gaps are not usually big at all. It's not a great course.

You can't stack up a huge, usually. You can't stack up a huge advantage. So you have Laredudu, you have Côte de Cordonemont, then Cote de Forge. And then I think that there's about eight kilometers between Cote de Forge and La Roche of Foucaun. So that's where if a ride like Pogacar is away, it's obviously also a lot downhill. But, you know, if you have two, three, strong riders behind, they could potentially reduce that difference a bit. But then, you know, you get to the bottom of La Rochefoucault and it's, it's start you start all over again. Yeah. I do think that's the

formula though, instead of going with them, trying to get some sort of chase, like a Remko led chase, like Amstel Gold last year. The problem is also with Remko, you know, who wants to be away with Ramco? There's no draft behind it. It's a good point. That's also a problem Remko has. You know, whenever he's away with someone, he goes so fast on the flats. Then always has to slow down for somebody to be able to pass. And the guy who just does a pull then said, okay, I'm not going to pull too fast because as soon as I get behind the guy, I don't have draft. Yeah.

I mean, I was pushing it images from Amstel and it's not fair. Yeah. Schoomosa, even if Schoomosa's not doing any work, he's. And he's also tiny, yeah? He's also tiny. And he's getting hammered by this wind because there's no drop behind Rimco. I remember seeing, you know, that stage in Catalonia where Ramco and Jonas went away. Yes.

You know how tiny Jonas is? He looked massive behind Remko. And if you see Jonas in real life, he is, like, there's no profile on that bike. That is, it is mind-blowing how Arrow Renco is. Do you, let's say Pagaccha doesn't win. Who's your wild card to win this race? that it's going to be sex. If Poracha doesn't win, it's going to be success.

But, you know, a guy I would really like to see do well, because it looks to me like he has a great beginning of the season and his second place of Wednesday in Flashwallon confirms that, Mauro Schmidt, I'm not going to say he's going to win. But, you know, it's a guy who can be in the final and then when things come back together can come to the front at the end. but that's probably, I mean, that would be a scenario where all the other favorites fail. But I think I would like to see Mauro Schmidt in the front.

Chaconne will probably in the front. Skillmos is in great shape. So he did an actually really good climb Skilmos. He got 50 in Fleshwale. And if you look at his time of where he started, same with Mowro Schmidt, by the way. Mowro Schmidt was positioned all the way in the back of the main one. Terrible position. So if you would time, his real time, like when he, when he starts,

that's probably like probably five, six seconds behind. So he probably went up in the same time as Seik Soss. And scale most of the same. He got fifth. Usually it's the same guys, right? Bentulet is going to be up there. In my opinion, he's in great shape. But these guys are obviously below, a level below.

these three names we've said Bogot Characos, Texas and Ramcoevenapu. Schmidt is plus 10,000 for the win, which feels low to me, basically. He looks incredible. I would say he's probably not going to win. But if you go back and look at podiums of this race, there are riders in the podium. You don't remember

being on the podium. Like Santiago Butrago, 2023. Chaconay was second last year. Matthew Vanderpull was third in 2024. Wavonart was third in 2022. The podium is odd. widely wide. Quinton Adam on the second.

Yes. Quentin Hermes. Wait, what year was that? 2020. Same as Van Arcten. He beat Von Arcten. Yeah.

Crazy. So if you can find a way to bet on Schmid for the podium, I think that would be a good, a really good pick. Or even Schelmoza. Both those guys look really good. I'm going to, my super wild card is my guy, Kevin Baclon.

He's had some bad luck. He's plus 6,500 for the win. Probably not going to win, but good little podium pick if you can find who would have bet on him for the post. He's a solid rider. Yeah, he was on a, on a teammates' bike on the flush alone, which is never a good way to finish that race.

Yeah, no, that's, you don't want to go up mute a wee on a teammate's bike, man. That's not fun. No. And before we go, a little bit of news came across our desk. Remko having a poll, I guess, reportedly, is this confirmed signs a lifetime deal with specialized bikes? Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah, well, that's also, I mean, it's,

Obviously, Specialized likes Remco. Remco makes them sell a lot of bikes, I guess. Ramco loves the brand. He's never been on any other bike since he's a professional. Then it's specialized. So, you know, and it also confirms the interest of Specialized to keep going Red Bull. You know, there's a big extra budget because it's been announced officially that Specialized will not renew their sponsorship with Sudolk Wigstepp.

Tohdaqqqqqqq step next year will be on Merida, who is sitting one year out of the world tour. But it's such a big bike brand and big manufacturer that they kind of have to be in the professional cycling. So, yeah, that means that Ramco is, you know, set with specialized, probably set with Red Bull for a very long time. and if there would ever be a way of, you know, if Remko doesn't stay with Red Bull, he,

you know, he's interesting for any other team because he comes with a really nice back sponsor. Yeah. And he kind of is this kind of already how it worked because he left Sudal but went to a specialized team in Red Bull or a Red Bull, whatever they were called at the time that he went there. So he's kind of always been tethered to specialize.

It sounds crazy. You're like, whoa. lifetime deal. But, you know, Matthew Vanderpull is what a 10-year deal with Canaan. Sorry, Canyon. So a 10-year deal is probably the rest of his career. Well, I mean, also Peter Sagan

has a lifetime deal with Specialized. Yeah, he's going to ask you about that. When he left, when he left Thinkoff and went to Bora, he took specialized with him. Then he left Bora, before it was, before Red Bull was called Bora, right?

Then he left Bora. I went to Total energies, took specialized with him. As soon as Sagan stopped his career, specialized pulled out of total energies. And but Sagan is still an ambassador for specialized is at all their events. And he gets, you think it gets paid every year? Like the lifetime dealing for some sort of salary.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. They don't do it for free special. It's a nice annuity for these riders. because like Peter Sagan and Remco in the future, it's like you have a job forever because you've stayed with this brand of your whole career. Do you know interestingly about Marita? Do you know who owns 49% of specialized? Merida. Marita.

Yeah. And then they're coming in to fill in that spot. People might ask, why do you have to sponsor a pro bike team? Just don't do it. Well, it does sell a lot of bikes more than you'd think when you look at the numbers. And also, it's key to building a good bike because if you, if you, don't sponsor a team, you would not guess this, but the bike quality does go down. You can't compete with the other brands. If you look at the brand Merida Spencer, you know, it's been always

a huge manufacturer, but, you know, they were producing for a lot of brands, but their own brand until, I would say, six, seven, eight years ago was not that good of a bike. Their top the top range. I mean, now, the Merida bikes now are unbelievable. They're really, really, really good bikes. So, you know, that's obviously thanks to the collaboration with the professional team and all the feedback and all the testing they do. They keep improving their products. So yeah, Marita next year back with Sudal quick step, I guess. That's still going to be the sponsors. So yeah. But anyway, what's the Ramco? Ramco set for life with specialized.

That's nice. I like that. It's good for Rico. I want one of those deals. We should try to get one of these, Johan, these lifetime deals where you get paid forever. I don't know.

I don't know if they're going to be interested, Spencer, not in me. I always say, you know, I'm going to take the advantage of saying this year. You know, we always had a deal with track bicycles,

you know, postal discovery. Then when I left Discovery, I went to Astana, I took Trek to Astana, then to Radio Shack. You know, all of the two of the France victories of Trek have been with my teams nine times. They won the two or nine times. I think if we look at Trek in 1998, it was, I'm not afraid to say it. You know, it was a shitty American bike brand. It was, I was just going to say it was not a good bike.

It was a big brand, but the quality of their bikes were not good. You know, and they were not hugely successful. You know, 99, we won the tour. We won it seven times. You know, they doubled their sales every single year, I think, since then. I would think I should get track bikes for the rest of my life because of what we did do that for them. But unfortunately, I have to buy them. So that's not going to happen.

We'll reach out to John Burke. Anyway, there are other brands out there. If they're interested, I'm open for discussion. It is a big deal for these riders. I mean, can you imagine being Remcoe and now you've got a deal with? Well, listen, we have, we have Ventum. We have Ventum bikes, Spencer. And, you know, I'm very happy with my Ventum bike.

For what, you know, I ride a lot, but, you know, it's a comfortable bike for me there this ventum is not a bike that it's in in the in the in the pro peloton yet but uh i'm super happy with my ventum yeah so i funny story about ventum i have like for my own use for a certain amount of time i have the cut that colinago aerobike great bike great road bike so fast like so cool to ride it i the bike i ride more is i took one of lances ventum gs ones and i find myself riding that that's like my day-to-day bike because you're pretty fast on the road and then just where I live I do a lot of gravel riding but that is a super versatile bike fun bike to ride yeah it's a very for me it's a very comfortable like it is very comfortable yeah it's almost like a road

also in terms of performance Spencer I saw that they just you know they had their we were we're off track now a little bit we're we're hyping ventum which we should you know they're very loyal partner to the ventum corner yeah brought to you by ventum but they uh They have this new time trial bike, the tempus. And I think they set the fastest time ever in an Ironman last week. Yeah, I did see that. Crazy. What's his name?

Rudy von Berg. Rudy von Berg is on a tempest. And he set the fastest time ever in the bike segment in an Iron Man. So, you know, they're up there. Good job, Anthem. Good job. Yeah. I'm sure that's a big segment for them too, the triathlon market.

Well, anything else, Johan, before. Oh, also, if you live in the United States, this race is on Peacock on Sunday because it's an ASO race. Okay. Well, we'll speak on Sunday afternoon, Spencer. Yeah, we'll be back with George and Cappi and maybe Lance Armstrong. We'll see how early we can get him up. I might have to fly to... You know, as he said in the last podcast, he's in Hawaii, so he would need to watch it at 2 a.m. in the morning.

It's miserable, yeah. I don't think that's going to happen. Who knows? He may surprise us. Maybe he will be on. He got two times second in this race, so he knows what he's talking about. Which he told us he got one time second, and then he had unearthed before the show,

the second second that he got in 1994. But thanks, Johan, and we'll be back on Sunday. Okay, thanks.