THEMOVE - Can UAE Realistically Challenge Vingegaard at This Vuelta? | Vuelta a España Stage 10 Analysis & Stage 11 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: September 2, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jay Vine's performance to win his second stage at this Vuelta a España on a summit finish, where the GC group once again traded light blows behind before coming in just over a minute down. Johan also breaks down how the Juan Ayuso drama continues to unfold at this race, what he thinks the issues are within the team, and where he thinks he should race in 2026. Before they depart, they preview tomorrow's tough stage in the Basque Country, discussing how they think the race will unfold and who presents the best betting value.

Second stage went for Jay Vine, super strong rider who has been given the freedom to go and breakaways. I think that kind of fits into the strategy of UAE. I think, I mean, if they're really, really honest, they know that it will take a small miracle for Almeida to beat Jonas Fingewart in this Vuelta. And, you know, we've been very critical about UAE for different reasons. But if you look at today, we've done 10 stages and UAE has won four stages in this VALTA. So not bad. It's not bad at all. And so they're in second.

They're most likely going to be on the podium in this VALTA and they're most likely going to win the KOM. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Brinnell. We are breaking down stage 10 of the Valta Espania won by Jay Vine, his second stage win, this race fourth well to win of his career stage win of his career and the light gc action behind that joiella made a tried to make something happen with the help of wana yuso shockingly but the main guys came in together we we know pretty much the same as we knew before the stage

johan but we did see wana yuso working for the team so we will talk about that we will talk about the situation the befuddlement from iuso about why it was announced he was leaving the team on the rest day instead of after the race, but after we do that, we will also preview stage 11, give our picks. I will do a short recap of the stage. It was kind of a funny stage because we turn it on. The TV coverage starts. No breakaway away. I thought for sure there would be a break away. There was, you could like see the formation happening, but this is 100 kilometers after race start. Race starts, a move finally gets clear. Who bridges across though, other than one or not, Jonas Vindigard with Victor Kampinard's with him.

Kind of a strange move. Don't quite know what that was about, but that kills the breakaway. Another move eventually goes. And then Jay Vine smartly sits back, lets it form. And when he realizes, well, that's the move. He bridges up with his teammate Miko Bert Pulling him. Once Vine is in the move, they don't know it, but the race is over because he is going to smoke them on the final climb. They get to the climb.

Vine said he was, he was playing possum. this guy, Javier Romo for Movistar, incredible writer. Like, this guy is really strong. He broke away from the breakaway. He gets chased down. And then Pablo Castrilo, if you remember, he won two stages of the Volta last year on Kern, Ferma, Pharma. I forget the name of that team.

Ken Farma, yeah. Kern Farma. He looks like he's going to take it, but then Vine kind of attacks behind methodically, reels him in, passes up wins the stage. behind that in the gc group you have who do you have at the front other than uae actually looking organized lining up a paceline at the bottom of the climb making sure elmada is not out of position not vulnerable to attacks and then he has wana yuso lead him out with the with a strong pace for an attack he goes yonis vinaigurd's right on him can't drop him but it was notice it was

notable that he had tom pickock right behind him and then matteo jorgensen and the only other rider that could stay with him as Matthew Bricketto, bridging up away from Giulio Pellissari, who he's in a white jersey battle with. But once Amater realizes he can't drop Vindigard, he sits up. Kind of a funny thing is you have, you have a meta going hard in the GC group,

and they're chasing down Jay Vine up ahead. So I don't know if it was a calculation of like, well, I don't want to keep pressing because we're going to catch my teammate, and he's not going to win the stage, or should his teammate drop back and help him pace so he can drop these guys? I think they eventually realized, we're not going to do anything on this climb.

We can't drop them. They take the stage when the G.C. guys come in together. Julia Chikana, who was dropped with Almeida's attack, is like sprinting into the finish. I don't really understand these G.C. group sprints when there's nothing on the line. But they're doing it. They sprint in. Everyone is on the same time. I would say I was most impressed with Tom Pidcock, Johan, not getting dropped.

But also, Felix Gall was distanced and then Ben O'Connor is fading away. as well as Egan Mernal. But what was your takeaway of the day? Well, you recapt it well, Spencer, but my takeaway is, of course, second stage went for J. Vine. Super strong rider who has been given the freedom to go and breakaways. I think that kind of fits into the strategy of UAE. I think, I mean, if they're really, really honest,

they know that it will take a small miracle for all. Almeida to beat Jonas Fingart in this VELTA and you know we've been very critical about UAE for different reasons but if you look at today we've done 10 stages and UAE has won four stages in this welta so not bad it's not bad at all and so they're in second they're most likely going to be on the podium in this VELTA and they're most likely going to win the KOM I don't know but I would have to look at at the team classification but anyways they're doing well um so obviously jvain winning the stage again and then you know other takeaway not of the stage of the whole day is the continuation

of the juan ayuso saga um as we said yesterday live on the show we got the news during the recording that uae had uh put out a statement on the rest day and today the day and today the the aftermath was quite dramatic. So for me, that was kind of the event of the day, the whole Ayusso drama. You know, UAE makes a statement yesterday that, yes, they confirmed that they've come to an agreement with Juan Ayuso to part ways after this season. And there's a few wordings in there. I think it was quite, I mean, there was nothing really, I would say nothing aggressive or

nothing attacking. You can, I mean, if you know this situation, you can read in between the lines that one of the things said, for example, that, you know, for the harmony of the team or something like that, or, you know, we, we defer in our team vision, whatever. But apparently, Ayuso took big issue with the fact that the statement was put out yesterday. And then also with the wording. And so he, Yusso gave an interview to the Spanish media at the start. at the team bus. And he was extremely, extremely on fire. He said that he didn't agree with the content.

And he also didn't agree with the timing. They had agreed before the Vuelta to issue the statement at the end of the Vuelta. So I don't know exactly what has been going on behind the scenes, but it's clear that Ayuso came to the Vuelta knowing that he was leaving. And that he said that yesterday at 6.30, the afternoon he got told that the press release was going out at seven so he said that you know he thinks that the intention of the team direction he's he says the team directions i don't know i mean he must be referring to janetti and machin uh to do that their intention is to damage

his image with the wording of this statement um and that um You know, he's been trying to find common grounds, but calls the team, like it's run as a dictatorship. I don't know. I don't know if that's the case. I don't think so. I think it's probably the incompatibility, how do you say that? They're not compatible. Not compatible.

Yeah. The character of Ayuso and the way he sees cycling and his position in cycling with the team. I think that's the issue. Of course, if a writer like Ayuso doesn't get his way most of the time, he's going to say, well, you know, these guys are dictators. From a distance, right? I repeat, I'm saying this from a distance because I don't know what's going on within the team. I can just judge on what I see and mainly what I see in races, the behavior of Ayuso in races, and then his interview. So that's a little bit my conclusion.

I think one of the, I mean, not a lot of people have picked up on it, but Almeda's statement. Almeida's interview after the race was quite telling. They asked him also about Juan Ayuso. He said, you know, well, you know, he has to look for his own interest, you know, for his future. he's my teammate he's not my friend he said he's my teammate man I mean that little

that little phrase that he's not my friend I think that says a lot that says a lot yes Spencer I don't know if you remember last year in the Tour de France the stage over the Galibier where finally Bogartar won run away on the Galibier

but I heard from someone I can't remember who told me this But there was already some tension in UAE because UAE was setting the pace. Ayuso was there at the beginning, then dropped back, but hang on, didn't get dropped from the group. And I think it was Almeida, who was shouting over the radio something along the lines as, Juan, get your fat ass up here and pull. So, I mean, it must have been something. somebody in that group who, who heard that, who I know it from.

I don't remember who it is. But, you know, I mean, it's clear that, that, I think for Ayuso, it's probably the best that he leaves that team. You can't go on in a team if you feel like, you know, your, your, Iuso is a kind of writer. It's him. It's about Juan Ayuso all the time, or most of the time. And the thing is also UAE doesn't need Juan Ayuso.

They have plenty of other writers. So, yeah, I mean, these statements came out today. Then there was this interview about Machin. Machin waited quite a bit, I think. I don't know if the interview of Machin was before or after the stage, but he was very like, no, no, no, you know, we came to an agreement. It's a situation that it is what it is. Juan is with us until the 31st of December of this year.

He will do a great job in this Vralta, blah, blah, blah, as if everything was okay. Everything's not okay. That's for sure. So we'll see now what happens. Obviously, we don't know right now what are Uso's destination is going to be. There's a lot of talks about Little Trek. Could be a good option, I think,

because they don't necessarily have a dominant GC rider. Is it the right environment? I'll say, I'd say it could be okay. You know, they're obviously, this little track have made incredible steps forward the last few years. They're one of the best teams in terms of the infrastructure, the environment, all the people they have around the team. I personally also think that for Juan Yusso, Movistar could actually also be a good option. I know, I know people are going to say, yeah, you know, it's old school. It's, you know, they don't, they're not in the game.

I mean, if Juan Yusu goes to Movistar, there's a few things that we should consider. First of all, as far as I have been informed, they do have a bigger budget in the future with a new external investor coming in, external owner, co-owner. they have a commitment until 2009 and he would be the number one rider all year long

any time he shows up he would be the flagship of the team and something tells me that in Movistar they're catching up and they're also hiring a lot of new people into staff and I'm pretty sure

I would also have his say in that so I don't know I mean, I think it's going to be a matter of, of the contract. We're still in the unknown also if there's now finally a buyout or not for Ayuso. And if in case there's a buyout, then we can already say his team is decided already. Juan Ayuso has already made an agreement with another team if the buyout is agreed upon because the buyout is not going to come out of Ayuso's pocket. It's going to come out of the team's pocket. So we don't know that.

But yeah, I mean, we'll see. I'm curious to see what's going to happen now. We're now, you know, in the middle of the Vuelta, just at the middle. There's still, what is there, 11 stages to go. Curious to see how he's going to move on in this Vuelta. Is he going to be at the service of the team today he tried? I mean, at least he showed intention. I think he could have done a lot better, but at least he was there and did a nice book for Almeida.

I just saw the interview of Machin that Macin says, you know, well, if there's an opportunity, he's going to get another opportunity to doing his stage. I personally think he should just say, I would not let Ayuso go and breakaways anymore. He needs to work for the team now. But do they have that power and authority over him? That's still an unknown to me. well that takes me my question was going to be also we should say two things two bits of housekeeping i didn't mention at the top yonis vindigard takes the race lead back so yeah torsden trine probably

should have said that it was kind of very it was weird it was just train didn't finish that far back he's still second overall but vindigard just took just enough time to take the gc lead also i've moved locations since johan started his point um i lost wifi at my house so do not panic if you um see me in a different location on YouTube. But, Johan, my question would be, why is he still here? Like, what's the upside for UAE keeping him in the race? If things have gotten so bad that they rushed out, I kind of felt bad for so, it's saying, like, I didn't know they were going to release that.

Well, that kind of stinks for him, but why even keep him around? Why do you think they released it all of a sudden, Spencer, and not waited at the end? Martine just said, I just watched the while you were gone. I just watched the interview. and he said, you know, the communication team decided to release it today. I don't really know the reason why. Oh, I don't know about that. So it must be a bit of a message there.

I mean, I mean, if I was going to read between the lines, they agreed before the Volta that this would, that he would go. They took him. He was supposed to work for the team. And then he sat up on Sunday. So just middle finger. I'm not going to work. And then they got upset. and they said this is enough and they released a statement would be how they actually what would be okay

yeah i can understand that in you know in the heat of you know you're pissed off and but what do they gain what does you gain by this by releasing this not i can't see the upside well did you have i use so at the front of the peloton today i mean i don't know i don't know what to think of it but it did seem like maybe it put him in his place for lack of a better word and then he's at the front working today so clearly like a positive he was working he was working because he's pissed off and he's yeah it's definitely i mean he's working because he's pissed off and he said i'm going to show you guys that i what i can do um we'll see if that i mean i think it's also possible that i used to just all of a sudden in the last week says you know what i'm i'm out of here i'm going

to prepare for the worlds i feel like they would be fine with that and i don't know i mean they're losing potential very big pieces of help, right? Because at his best, if he's motivated, he can help a lot. Also, if they don't release it, what are we talking about for the rest of this VALTA? Yeah. I'm happy they released it. That's for sure. But also, you know, even if they lose Ayuso, Spencer, it's not like, he's not, you know, he's not key. He's not key in this VALTA, you know, and it's clear that UAE will not, you know, and it's clear that UAE will not have to be at any point in this race the team that will have that has to wear the weight of the stage it's going to be visma and and uae is going to be depending on how almeda feels

will try to attack whether that's with or without a use so will that make a big difference you think no frankly i'm not even quite sure why they brought him here like what was the upside from the beginning they they they said in their statement before the race that he's the co-leader but then they say that and it doesn't seem like he agreed with that because then he sat up on the first time at finish and said well i was never going to compete for the gc here and it's like well now all of you know when we going back then knowing what we know now now it's kind of more clear we said is in another podcast right that the whole welta team plus the young riders that went to tour the 11 year were on an altitude camp in Andorra and Iuso was at home. So he was already

doing his own thing. Yeah, which tells you probably some agreement was made before the race. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Not the agreement was made before the race, but I think they brought him for two reasons. First, when finally, Polachar decided to not do the Vuelta because I think initially it was on his program. And then secondly, they brought him because they said, okay, you come to the Vuelta. And you are at the service of the team all the time in exchange for us, you know, agreeing for your way out of the team, which then I usual didn't really do by sitting up. I think the sitting up part is the drop that really, you know, what is it the straw that broke, whatever. Yeah, the straw that broke the cables back. Yeah, yeah, exactly.

Yeah. that was pretty egregious i would say that was one of the more aggressive passive aggressive maybe just aggressive aggressive moves i've ever seen from a disgruntled rider on a team just sitting up on the sprinters there's been a lot more than there's been a lot worse than that's well i mean i guess lopez getting in the car and going home would be number one that was pretty intense what is with the welta why does this always come out at the vault is it just because end of the year the heat's driving people insane we don't know yeah i don't know but anything else you learn from the summit finish today,

I think we were, I don't think this was on the show. This is just a private conversation, but we're impressed with Pitcock, maybe have some questions about Pitcock, but I would say he's climbing well. And there's harder climbs to come. Like I think we've seen who's the best climbers here.

I don't know if Pitcock's going to fade away. I think he'll probably finish on the podium. I think I think Pitcock's, performance today is, it's a confirmation of, I mean, the first time, the first up he'll finish, he was good, really good. This is a confirmation. Okay, it is not, those two climbs that we had now, they're not the hardest climb, right? Maybe we went over all the stages left. There's still a few, I mean, there's at least three stages with a mountain of finish, which are incredibly hard, much harder than what we have seen now. You know, the Angliru, you have the Altafara Pona, and then

you have the Bola del Mundo here in Madrid, those three at least, and then there's one or two others that are equally hard or more hard than today. But it is definitely starting to look really good for Tom Pitcock, I would say. I mean, I don't know. I think he can be on the podium. It's still long. We haven't seen Tom Pitcock perform over three weeks yet in his career for G.C., but he looks he looks on good for him i mean i was impressed by i mean i don't know if you saw that

there's there was two attacks of almeda i think two times thinking ago but the second time i don't know if you saw that spencer how pitcock took the interior like in the in it's not the gutter but it was like concrete a lot harder than then on the asphalt and he followed quite easily. I'm going to guess he's not going to agree. It's not going to agree. It didn't feel easy probably, but he looked like he was responding quite comfortably. So when everybody else was on the limit. So now, if Pitcock rides conservatively and stays within himself, I think he can be on the podium. That would be indefinitely a lot better than I would have predicted before this well, though. Way better. I mean, this is hugely impressive what he's doing. I would also say, yeah,

the climbs might be harder but the flip side of that is a field skull julia chocone jai henley are having a hard time keeping contact on these climbs well they i don't think they're going to be better on the harder climbs yeah so they might as you say spencer i think you remarked that at the beginning of the volta that pittcock looks extremely skinny uh so he's obviously i mean the proof is there he's climbing very well yeah and he has a i don't know he's a funny character You don't see characters like him that much in pro cycling. Like you, he really is like comes across as a big personality in post race interviews and kind of seems like someone like if he's interested, he's very, very good. But if his interest wanes, he can, you know, he's not hitting, you know, someone like Jonas feels like the guys send him anywhere and he's like can just apply the same level of interest and effort all the time where a lot of people aren't like that.

and Pitcock feels interested. I think he'll want to see this through. I have to say, I'm just very impressed. I was a little disappointed. Rick Catello didn't take any time on Pellizari today, but he does look like he's maybe the best climber. This is kind of a funny grand tour as well. Like,

there's not many grand tours where someone like Matthew Ricotelo might, he might be able to beat Mateo Jorgensen. Like, this is potentially the worst grand tour you could ever come up with Mateo Jorgensen's for GC aspiration. Yeah, but he's in good shape. I mean, he looks in good shape. I mean, he's up there with the four, five, five, six best riders, Mateo.

Matthew Ricotelo also. I mean, I think it was, it was nice to see today that when there was a selection, he was the fifth best rider there. Belizari, who's in white now, had to let go. He came back. But I think, I mean, I've said it already twice. I'm going to repeat it. I think Rickettello is the favorite for the white jersey versus Belizari.

I briefly did a check before we started the podcast, Spencer. And, you know, with the steep clams, we still have, it's 66 kilos for Pelizari and it's 55 kilos for Riccatella. That's 11 kilos difference. Yeah. On those steep climbs, man, that's a lot. It's a lot, a lot, a lot. Yeah. It's the worst possible part.

course for obviously the time trial is going to be an issue but but yeah in those steep climbs man i think plus it's also it's the first is it the first it's the first round tour for ricketto no he didn't do the giro no i don't think he did no no i think he did the gero he was he was really good at the gero by the very good he finished fifth i thought he did i think i tipped him to potentially win at some point i think he finished fifth into the geo he was sixth overall sixth was caruso holy smokes yeah yeah that guy is impressive but um what's the deal why are these gc sprinters sprinting in we kept talking about the tour we didn't fully understand that there's no time bonuses and they're sprinting like all out at the end of these stages i guess it's just to

avoid losing time in case somebody just i don't know i don't know i mean I mean, obviously, the climate we've seen now, I mean, it's basically a mini bunchprint, right, between the, between the 10, 15 best climbers. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, modern cycling. And then we got a shout to Archie Ryan, 23 years old. I did not expect a lot from him at this beginning of this race. He gets fourth today.

Third day in the breakaway, I believe. Really. to get in the breakaway today. I mean, that was an unbelievably hard start. Yeah. Yeah, that's impressive. Like, that is not easy to do. So super encouraging from him, Movis Star.

Do you think they're disappointed? Second and third, probably not what they wanted. Obviously, this is the area of the sponsor of Movistar headquarters is in that area. So, so yeah, yeah. Also, Spencer, we said before, you know, four stage wins, four stage wins for UAE out of 10 stages but 77 wins this season already yeah for you a that's crazy i mean it's i think it's like it's almost double right the the second team and with the second team is probably in the 40s somewhere i think it's 43 little trek yeah so and so they've said publicly they said

publicly that they're going for the record uh which is 85 wins uh in 2009 by team columbia htc um i remember I remember they won all the time. But, yeah, 77. So there's still eight wins down. That might be the answer to our question, Johan. Why is, are you so here? Because they want that record. Okay, well, maybe two more stage wins.

So maybe they do let him go in another breakaway. Yeah. I wouldn't be shocked. Why not? I mean, if they're serious about it, they need a couple stage wins because there's not, you know, I guess they could win five or six races. Like those one-day races in Italy, maybe? Well, they can win Lombardy, they can win the worlds, they can win Canada.

That's three for the team? I guess technically, I guess it probably does. I think so, yeah. Yeah. That seems a little. It does. That's a little devious. And then nationals count.

Yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, we don't have to. They'll probably get it, I guess, now that I think about it. But I do wonder if that's played into their decision. to keep Ayuso here and also I mean that now I mean no probably not one of the reasons why he came but it's I mean listen it would be a nice benefit if you know you let him go in another and actually for

a you so it would be amazing amazing statement also like saying okay hey guys listen you give me all this shit but in the meantime I'm winning another stage how about that well and I assume his contract's not signed right it's like still being worked on man If there's if there's a buyout involved, his contract is signed. I mean, obviously, I mean, and winning a stage fight user is not going to change anything in his contract. It's not, I mean, he's at the level that he's expected to win multiple stages. You know, I would say we talked, you talked about Movistar.

I didn't respond to that. I do think it would be intriguing if you're Spanish and he can go be the man at Movistar. and Movistar could be on the up but if you were grand tour if you have grand tour aspirations you look at the list of teams that win grant tours it's the same teams i mean part of that too is like i would just be focusing almost solely on their nutrition department because that's so important in a little trek hasn't won any grand tours they have not but the red bull had neither and then they signed primos roglich and they went the vault to last year so yeah but they have they had won the Giro with Jay Vine.

I guess, yeah. Jay Hindley, sorry, Jay Hindley. Not Jay Vine. We're getting the spoilers for next year's zero, but it's so, like nutrition is like is so key. Like that's like all I would be paying attention to if I was trying to go to a new team. It's not the only thing, but it's, it's, it's, but there, I, you notice though, like maybe, maybe it's not as big of a deal with the new feed zones, but last year at the

tour, like it was visibly different. how many more vizma had than other teams and you're just getting like constant feeds from the side of the road and like cofidus is starving it out you know while vizma's getting all this food like they've changed that this they've changed this no no i guess yeah they want like they they want you to take food in feed zones because if vizma can afford a bunch of buses and people or vans and people that's not fair i guess but yeah um you do note i would say that's the biggest thing you notice between teams is i've wondered you know i was when i was in belgium i i wrote a few times with dirk with dirk the mole you know so we had a lot of time to talk and he's still

he's still a director he's in lotto for the moment and i actually asked him about this about these feet zones and i said so and he said you know yeah they've changed it i don't i don't i mean i didn't get the details but so i said the question so you're saying that because in order to give a feed or a bottle to a rider you have to have a UCI license and you have to be identifiable as with the team jersey so basically if you have a family member standing on the side of the road you can't take a bottle that's my question well i guess not i've definitely have seen it happen at the tour there's definitely riders taking nutrition at the top of climbs like outside the feed zones Yeah.

And I would probably think that's worth it. Maybe they won't catch you. But anything else on this stage before we move on to our predictions? Well, I mean, you know, Torsten train finally out of red. I think it was, I mean, there was a possibility he could hang on today, but he would have, he would need a really good day. He had an okay day. I mean, he didn't completely blow up. But so, Jonas is, I mean, I think Jonas is in red now and until Madrid, right?

I mean, he's not going to, he's not going to lose that anymore now. Probably, yes. But, yeah, it is worth noting. Jonas is very good. Tomorrow we'll factor into that probably. But Amid his 38 seconds back, Pitcock's 58 seconds back. It's not like, he's not like put the nail in the coffin yet. This isn't an overwhelmingly large.

This isn't a Pagachar post-O-2-com situation. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Then you can also ask the question, has Jonas already really tried 100%. You know, he did have like spit coming down his face on stage, what was that, stage nine. So it looked like he was trying pretty hard.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay. Not a great climb for him, though. There are better climbs coming up where he could turn the screw. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Has he not, I'd love that take.

Has he not even tried yet? That would be so devastating if you're in this race. on the on the on the on the climb he he he attacked he definitely tried i mean 100% uh that you know he gave it his all uh i mean he did hold them off for 10 kilometers which yeah is not easy to do yeah um we'll see i i do think you're right i do think he probably holds it till madrid as unfortunate as that is for uh suspense but he just kind of looks a level above the rest of the G.C. contenders here. Yeah. And you know also what I've what I've seen is that he looks really calm. He looks. I mean, I've seen a view, you know, like out of race interviews. You know,

I saw something there with an interview with the Danish guy from from Eurosport, Anders, Anders Milke, who's good friends with with Matt's Pedersen. And so there was a little reunion, Matt's Patterson and Jonas and Mikkel Bjerk and Wilke interviewing them. And they were joking around. And he looked really relaxed, you know, joking and, you know, definitely not the stress level, not even those do what's happening into two of the rounds. He seems to be enjoying being at the race, which is super important. There's no Taday. That would put you in the mood right there. Well, and there's not the same media circus.

There's not the same. I mean, like at the tour, it's like you win. It's like you're over, you know, like invaded with mics and. people all over you this is not the case you know and you're not invaded by people by spectators and not by the media you're definitely not invaded by spectators it's it seems to be the only people on the roadside are people with Palestinian flags at this point that is and people from the organization yeah I mean we should say it's a these are not like easy places to get no they are great for bike racing on television it's I would probably not be cruising up from

Plus, also, Spencer, listen, I mean, you know, we cannot compare the two. I mean, in the tour, you know, half of the people are on holiday. You know, people have started work, school have started again, you know, so everybody's back active into their daily routines. You know, that's obviously a huge difference. It's actually talking like a businessman about this who's like, why does it the tour should move? It doesn't make sense. It should be at the end of the year. But it's like, well, A, the climbs need to be free of snow.

so if you want to go to the high alps july's good option and holidays like they are it's such an advantage to line up with like key holiday season that is yeah yeah it gives you a massive that's why the tour that's why the tour will always be the big dominator it's you know it's in the summer everybody's on holiday you know listen great scenery the kind of great country to shoot shoot footage so yeah it's a shout out top shout out shout out France. It is a great country. But let's take a quick commercial break. France, this episode brought to you by France.

And then we'll predict stage 11. All right, Johann, stage 11. 100 is a tough stage, 157 kilometers. So not that long. In the Basque Country, Bill Bow to Bilbao, it looks like a stage straight from the tour, Idzulia, the tour of the Basque Country. It has one, two, three, four, five, six, seven categorized climbs,

all cat three or two. the final climb, and this is like San Sebastian, the final climb, 2K long, 9.2% average, even steeper in the last two thirds, though, like all over 11, 12%, and then it descends down for the finish. How do you, I'll list off the favorites, and then we'll get your thoughts on how this plays out. Jonas Findergarde's the favorite plus 400, Tom Pitcock plus 700, Juio, plus 1,000, Giulio Chokane, Chocone, plus 1,400, Juala, plus 2,000, Mark Salaire, plus 2,000, I would go to plus 2,200.

It goes on and on. We'll comment we need to. If you want to bet and want to understand this more, go to Nxtapets.com slash bet outcomes. It will tell you where to bet wherever you live and the best prices and sign-up bonuses on each sports book. But, Johan, how does this play out and who wins? Yeah, difficult stage, you know, all these climbs,

you know, a little detail, the Alto de Pique, or I mean, I'm going to guess it's Piquet. It's P-I-K-E, so you would say Pike, but I think it's a Basque name. And the one before. So the last two climbs are identical to the stage one in the Tour de France, 2023, when it was starting to finish in Bilbao, and the Yates brothers went together to the finish. If you remember, there was this super steep climb at the end where actually Jonas and Taday, went away. If I remember correctly, it would be Victor Lafé, who was with them, French guy, Lafayay. Yeah, you're right. Yeah. And then the Yates brothers came back and they attacked over the top.

So it's the, I remember it's extremely steep, very steep. I think because, I mean, there's 3,000 meters of elevation in 158 kilometers. It's not a mountain stage, but it's extremely steep. hard. Because it's up and down, up and down, I'm going to go for you onus Wingergaard straight, straight. I mean, I think it's going to be difficult for a breakaway to make it. Especially also because of the way this course is. I mean, the last few climbs in the Basque Country there's narrow road. Positioning is super important. So nerves in the Peloton, I think a breakaway It won't make it that far. And I think on that last climb, Jonas rides away. It's deep enough.

And I think Jonas comes in solo. He's my pick for the win. Yeah, I could definitely see that happening. Interestingly, this could be one of the best GC stages of the race because the climbs aren't so hard as to be disqualifying. Now, I kind of worry about some of these big climbs later on that it's going to be the top guys riding five seconds. apart like as hard as they can go at a single speed there's no dynamism this is a super dynamic stage

like the way you race the way you position really important you know if you get over the climb four seconds in front of someone that could blow open on the descent and then the following climb yonis is the strongest rider makes sense he would win this race i'm going to go though and i can't believe i'm doing this tom pickcock plus 800 this is a good if yonis doesn't win this stage it's because Pitcock out sprints him at the end or drops him on one of these dissents because that guy is an unbelievable dissender. So I'm going Pitcock. Okay, good one.

Good one. I can see that. I can see that happening. My wildcard is Jalameda for the same reason. Probably not being able to follow Jonas coming back and then a late surge or something. If it's the same finish, which I think it is, it's kind of uphill also, falls flat. two and a half, three percent. I remember the Yates brothers came in that together,

then one dropped the other one. I actually don't remember which one. Was it Adam who won in front of Simon or the other way around? I think it was Adam who won. Yeah, this is actually a mine melter. It was Adam winning over Simon. Yeah, twin on twin violence. Yeah, Adam on UAE and Simon on Deco.

Is it, maybe he's got nothing left. I like that pick what, by the way, Alameda won similar stages in the Basque Country to this. You think you think of as a bad dissenter, bad by Candler, but he has actually gotten very good at stages like this. Yohan, is it crazy to think Javier Romo wins from the breakaway? Yeah, I think too much of a triathlet, he can't navigate. For some reason, I mean, I don't know for some reason.

I mean, today he was good. Today he was good. He was very good, actually. but I haven't seen Javier Romo good since 2 or down under. Yeah, he's at a bit of a cold period. Tour down under, he was amazing. I think he did another stage race where he was still pretty good. And then kind of haven't seen him in any results that I was expecting him to see.

So, I mean, today, obviously, it was the proof that his shape must be coming back. But I think it's difficult for a breakaway to make it with those last. few climbs, the effort you have and the energy you have to spend to stay up front and then these last few climbs are steep, yeah, you can lose a lot of time there. And the Peloton usually is going very fast for positioning into those climbs at the end. So you're going to lose a lot of time there. Well, I'm going to go Giulio Chaconay. I believe he's plus 1,400. I think I've picked Chaconay like five times this tour or this welton. He's not one. but did he won San Sebastian.

Am I right? I thinking that. Yeah. And this is not San Sebastian, but it's similar to rain. It's very similar. Yeah. I'm going to go Chikone. Yeah, I mean, I think you could easily compare the last climb in San Sebastian where

he dropped Del Toro, I think. Yeah, he dropped El Toro. And, and John Kristen, two UE riders. It's very similar to tomorrow's last climb. Yeah. And so I'm going to go him. You're going Al-Meda. Anything else on this stage before we go?

Nope. That's it. And Al-Mata's plus 2,000. That's pretty interesting. Well, we'll see. And then we'll be back tomorrow to talk about the stage and preview the next one. Okay, Spencer. Thanks.

All right, thanks.