THEMOVE - Can Vingegaard Hold On With Almeida Closing In? | Vuelta a España Stage 18 Analysis & Stage 19 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: September 11, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Filippo Ganna's scorching performance to win today's individual time trial at the Vuelta a España, just ahead of UAE's Jay Vine, with his teammate João Almeida putting valuable time into the race leader, Jonas Vingegaard, behind. They analyze what the time splits throughout the effort can tell us about each contender, and continue to question why UAE is putting such a big priority on chasing stage wins over supporting their GC leader, especially with Vingegaard within reach. Before they go, they preview tomorrow’s stage, discussing how it could play out and who is best positioned to take the stage win. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Jonas has, you know, he spoiled us in the past with certain performances that now he can't produce. But he's still always there with the first guys. Yeah. And he has an advantage. So, no, it's not that he's bad. You know, his shape is okay. In my opinion, it's good enough to win the Vuelta. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus.

I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernille. We are breaking down stage 18 of the Volta, Espania. What was supposed to be a 27 kilometer long time trial was reduced to 12 kilometers and was one, as we predicted, by Felipe O'Gana, who ripped through the course at 56 kilometers an hour, going about 60 kilometers an hour for the last half. Jay Vine comes in second, an unexpected second.

We did not see this coming. He was less than a second back. Jolameda, third, Bruno Amaral. Fourth, Evo, Olivier, fifth. So a lot of UAE up there, three UAE in the top five, Ghana winning. Ennioz gets their third stage win. The GC implications of the day were, I guess, reduced because of the time, because of the distance. There just was not a lot of distance to put a lot of time into people.

But Almeida pulls back 10 seconds on Jonas Finnegard, so he's now 40 seconds off the lead. Tom Pickuck, it slightly increases his lead to Jai Henley by a few seconds. Julio Pellizari loses some time to Matthew Ricotelo, but stays in fifth place. Ricotelo takes a little bit of time on Phyllis Gall, moves into sixth overall with Gall in seventh, three seconds behind him. And then at the end of the stage, at the end of the day, at the end of the podcast, we will preview stage 19. But, Johan, I think if I had to sum up the day, I would say Ghana went out a little slow, then Ghana went real fast, and then Ghana won. and then Jay Vine came along, went out quite a bit faster than Ghana,

put three seconds on him in the first, basically, 5K. And then he's the only one to stay with, where he loses the races, he loses 10 seconds in the last four kilometers to Filippo Gano, which shows you how fast Felipe O'Gana was going. He averaged 62.7 miles an hour in the last four kilometers. Kilometers. Yeah, last four kilometers aimed four minutes.

I guess that's 62.5 kilometers per hour. Miles and miles an hour. I'm kidding. Kilometers an hour. And that is really fast. Like highway fast, you actually might be very hurt if you fall off at that speed. And then Vine gets close. That, to me, was a surprise of the day.

Almeda looked quite good. We were confused why UAE was up there. But what is your take away of the day? Yeah, well, takeaway obviously is Ghana. winning. We hadn't seen him at all in any of the stages. And, you know, I mean, it's difficult not to see him because he's a big guy, you know, but I checked today and he has never been in any stage except the team time trial. He has not been in the top 30 on any of the stages. And there were some stages that were actually quite suited for him. So, yeah, I mean,

the way he finished this time trial, Spencer, is unbelievable. I think he, I mean, he said, also in his interview he got a few corners wrong at the beginning the first part was a bit more technical and then when he saw he was behind he just drove it to the finish uh i mean yeah those speeds i saw sometimes 64 65 kilometers per hour um and it's clear that you know nobody was close nobody even there were there were a lot of riders who were ahead of ghana in point one a lot of them then a bit less on the point two but still you know stephen kung was decently ahead um j vine was also ahead of him uh and then just you know he just took took a lot of time back in the last four point two kilometers in four minutes that's just insane yeah it's it is it's a world record

on the on the track uh wow you know because and and this is already with eight kilometers done eight kilometers already so i think the world record is what it was in 359 or 350 i mean he is actually he's he does have the world record right uh people gana i already did i don't keep up with track as much as i used to no no no no you know who has the world record on the track to jonathan milan it's milan exactly yeah yeah um anyways different you know on a road bike and there's you know it's It's different, but still, yeah, 4,200 meters in four minutes. That's crazy. That is crazy.

And then, you know, another thing. And we kind of feared for it a little bit yesterday. And yesterday I said, you know, I will not understand if it happens. And it did happen is that UAE has guys like Jay Vine and I use, I use so also. I use so with also full gas. and Olivera going full gas where I mean I mean obviously listen I mean what the hell do I know you know but I just think that it makes no sense they're not chasing another win I mean I think the vine could be as I mean fine could have been okay maybe he could have but I don't think he has ever beaten people Ghana in a time trial he's obviously on great form but man just save everything for stage 20 man I mean it's like it's on stage 20 it's going to be all or nothing right and then even more so after shortening the time trial I mean

I think one of the other thoughts of the day is what if you know what if yeah it would have been 27 kilometers now Almeida takes 10 seconds back on Jonas if it would have been 27 kilometers what would have translated to yonas was very honest to say that it would have been worse for him 27 kilometers i mean it was about a second a kilometer yeah he lost and it was basically two seconds a kilometer in the last third of the course so he was fading pretty fast it could have been 30 seconds right and in that case he was 20 seconds down before the last hard stage on Saturday. So anyways, we will know.

We won't know. And then another thing, Spencer, a third win for Ineos. I mean, three stage wins. They failed in G.C. But, you know, they had a stage win early on with Ben Turner. Egan Bernal won the stage and now people Ghana. So three stage wins. Now the question is the question.

This is the most interesting part of the whole day, Spencer. after this third stage win, which Ineos rider has to shave his head. What is the deal with that? Yeah. So, you know, they had this thing. And every time they win a stage, there's somebody who is picked out already on beforehand who has to shave their head. It's not the guy who wins, right?

The guy who wins doesn't have to shave. So Narvaise had to shave it already after Penn Turner won the stage. I think heikoski It looks like he's a shaped head Yeah and I heard that the next guy is Bob Yungus Oh you know I did hear this too He was the next guy too So we'll see tomorrow if Bob Jungus has a shaved head or not

And he's maybe got the best head of hair in the Peloton Shout out hymns but wow that guy's got it That's sad if they shave it Well hey you know he signed up for it he's being that's what the money's for bob yeah it's for shaving your head we should say so this is their one two three four five six seventh world tour win since basically in less than the last two months so like the last seven weeks and that's when dave ralzford came back to the team so it's like instant turnaround i mean who knows how much brailford brailsford has like affected this

yeah but they're winning quite a lot at the top level since he's come back. I mean, they're back in the game. I mean, back in the game, they're not where they were, right? And the question is a question of whether they can get back. And if they get back, it's not going to be overnight, right? It's going to take a few years. Well, they don't have the right personnel.

Step one would be get the right personnel. But at least they have like these talents in the team producing, which is a good sign. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Like, I don't know, it'd be like, so if you went to NEOs and were like, Johan, you have to win a grand to you have to win the tour with this team like telling someone like here's a paperclip you have to fly to europe yeah like well that's not going to work so some changes need to be made yeah and then

also i think the biggest challenge is and that's where the shift has happened you know in aos or sky back in the days you know potential big talents or potential tour winners actually wanted to go to eneos or were actually very eager to go there because they know that they knew that they they would have the best entourage, the best support. That has changed now. They're not on the top of the list anymore. Of the young riders want to go to the sexy teams, right? So they're not sexy anymore for the moment.

They can become sexy again. But there's some work to be done. Well, I think, yeah, also there's an effect of if all the young riders go to the sexy teams, they then become less sexy. And you might start thinking like, hmm, Enios is a pretty nice setup and there's no one to lead that team. And then you might go there. I did hear a rumor today that Red Bull has a free roster spot next year.

So the question is who's not coming back to Red Bull that they think might be coming back. But I think if I would have to guess, I didn't have that information, but if I would have to think, I'm going to say it's Oyer Lascano. You know, I was just going to say that. Who will maybe quit cycling or something. Wow. You know, I mean.

Because I was going to say, I don't think I've heard from that guy for months. No. Last race was Pari Roubae. And, you know, when there's obviously, there's a lot of things. I mean, I think it's, I don't know. I mean, I don't know if he's sick or if I'm thinking more towards a burnout, you know, or not being able to deal with the pressure. He took all his social media down.

And when the team is asked. about what the situation of Oyer-Laskano is for the moment why he's not at the races. Team directors say that they have instructions from the team to not talk about it. So there's obviously something deeper going on there, which could be a burnout. Wow. It's sad to hear that. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, I mean, that would explain. I mean, he's, he had all these great results in big races and in the front. in the final of classics and this year he's been nowhere yeah but you see you were right jvine has never beaten philippo gana so the question we have is how the heck did the sports books know that he should be second favorite i do not understand that if anyone has any insight of that please reach out but it's i think it's based on form right uh he obviously he's always in great form but you know let's not forget the day before so two days ago oh yesterday he was he got dropped on before that last glance started when bent tulip was still in in the race so you've been

nowhere for the last two mountain stages yeah yeah i don't know i mean you would think too like that almeda would be the better time trialist i'm now looking right now to see yeah almeida has beaten Vine eight times in time trials. Vine has beaten him three times, including today. So that is funny that he would be so. I mean, to me, I can't believe you A did that. I mean, I can't believe it, but I can't believe it. Yeah. Because they've been so bad. It's like, do you have no shame? We will find out on Saturday, Spencer, what's happening? You know, if Almeida has the support he needs. I mean, first of all, Almeida needs to have the legs himself, right? So, that's the first condition but then if you i mean now with 40 seconds uh because he's 40 seconds down

now right 40 seconds down yeah so well first of all who knows if they're going to be able to go up the bola del mundo the last three kilometers right that's the first the first uh question and then secondly based on what we have seen so far between vingerart and almeida 40 seconds are not going to happen in the last three kilometers. No. Even if it's steep. He needs to play all or nothing. And for that, you need a team collective approach.

You know, Vine, in my opinion, on the form he is, is the only one who can do damage. Vine and Groschartner, but, you know, I mean, look, Groschartner, I mean, I haven't checked him. he didn't he didn't go full gas today he knows what he knows where he has to be you know on on on saturday no yeah yeah i don't get it because you're right vine is the only one that can make the difference i mean these guys are so locked together i mean this this race is so close that so it's four separated by 40 seconds do you know how many seconds yonis vinaigrad took in two of the first four stages he took basically half of that lead well i mean if you look if you Spencer, the biggest time difference between the favorites was on one of the less difficult

climbs. You know, Jonas took 30 seconds on Valdez Karai. Yeah. I don't know if that's including bonuses or not, but that's including bonuses. Okay. But that shows you like these guys are so, it's a phenomenon we're seeing more and more of where these top guys are so closely matched. The only time a difference gets made is when like the mental part is brought in or mistakes because if it's steep and it's the hardest climb in pro cycling and they can just ride on each other's wheel but if it's an unusual climb or it's like oh it's steep at the beginning and then it's not steep then there's like a little bit of nuance or there's terrain that you can deploy tactics on versus just pedal real hard because if they pedal real hard they're going to be about the same speed

I can't believe it's this close I mean it's 40 seconds and it's trending in Almeda's direction. For the moment, you know, the balance goes to me. It's clear that Almeida is, you know, is the guy on better, I mean, I'm not going to say better form, but, you know, he has the moment, more momentum than Jonas. But, you know, Jonas just needs to hang on and Almeida needs to attack and drop him. It's not easy. It's, you know, that's why I think on Saturday, UAE needs to come up with a plan and needs to

use Groschartner first and then J. Vine to really put the hurt on Visma and see if Jonas cracks. It's probably not going to crack, you know. He's not really shown any signs of cracking. That's the problem. I mean, the thing is also, he can crack them. Yonis has, you know, he spoiled us in the past with certain performances that now he can't produce. But he's still always there with the first guys. Yeah. And he has an advantage. So, no, it's not that he's bad.

You know, his shape is okay. In my opinion, it's good enough to win the Vuelta. We should mention, Jai Henley's not happy with fourth place. Red Bull will not just go quietly roll in for fourth and fifth. So that does produce a variable on stage 20 where. stuff could get really weird, really early in that stage. And then that could give Almeida a chance. Did you notice Jonas in this post-race interview?

He didn't know how many days were left in the race? I didn't know that. He said the wrong number of days. Sometimes, you know, I think some, I mean, he is, he's sometimes in a bubble. I remember years ago. I mean, I think it's three, four years ago, you know. He was, uh, he was in Tirino Adriatico. and so you know it was at the bottom at the top of a climb and i don't know if he had won the stage

anyways he he got closer to the lead you know and so the interviewer said oh and now you're you're closer to the blue jersey you know which is the leader's jersey right so this is after three four stages and he said the blue jersey which one is that you know so i don't know if it was you know if it was for real or if it was like you know fake to say hey i don't care but it seems to me like he's a guy he's so focused on his performance and he's just in the bubble of his team that um and you know i have to say spencer you know if you're if you're in a ground tour you do lose sense of time and space you know you basically you're you know you're in hotels you wake up you go to the bus.

They drive you to the start of stage 15. You don't look where it is. You don't even know on the map sometimes where you are. Just go from A to B, go back in the bus, back to the hotel. And I know, do that 21 times and you do lose the sense of reality. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good point.

I mean, for him, too, there's just one stage left, assuming that a big thing doesn't happen tomorrow anything else on today's time trial before we move on um no not really i mean yeah just just you know it's a shame we couldn't we didn't get to see um i mean still still okay you know you have we have a great winner um the the underdog takes a tiny bit of time on the big favorite so it keeps the suspense alive right um yeah so yeah after all i think it was it was it was a good it is weird seeing a time trial this short this late in a grand tour like it's strange like my circadian rhythm is all messed up and i would like to have seen man if if yonis was only leading by 30 seconds out of this stage that'd be a far more interesting gc picture i think yeah well

going into 30 40 it's what's clear is almeida needs a good a really good day and he needs Jonas to crack, which for the moment I haven't seen anything pointing into that direction. Yeah, I mean, if you imagine if it's, so it's 40, let's say Almeda wins the final day, then there's someone behind him, then he just needs Jonas to lose 30 seconds, which still seems like a lot. That's how good Jonas is. Like actually, it's hard to imagine him coming in 30 seconds down on Joval Mehta. Spencer, we've seen it, we've seen it in the tour also with Bogacha. You know, Pugacha was sometimes, especially in the first week, you know, he was sometimes dropping him and then he came back, you know, the guy just, the guy's tough. You know,

once he backs off a little bit, but keeps in a tempo and either stays at 10 seconds or 15 seconds or makes it back. Yeah, my getting my tour is confused, but I think the Carapaz third place one? Was that 2021? Where was that third week? He was just, yeah, Carapaz was in third, 2021. So, like, that third week, I don't think he lost any time to Pagachar. Just maybe in the sprints and with the bonuses.

Yeah. And then he might have even put time into him in the time trial. You know his Finnegard, good rider. We were ready to proclaim it. Very good rider. Very good rider. It's pretty good at this. GC thing. Well, let's take a quick break. Then we'll predict tomorrow's stage.

Okay, Johann, we're back. Stage 19, 162 kilometers, another short stage. I've been paying attention to this since you've mentioned you've been griping that these kids these days don't know about long stages. They're short in distance and they're raced very fast. So a lot of times they're like tour down under, tour down under length time, at least time-based stages, which is an interesting phenomenon. But it is hilly, no categorized, climbs though sprint point with bonus seconds in salamanca which is a little over halfway through and then we have a 2.3 kilometer long like drag up to the finish it's 3% average we don't have a great bit of detail on this final kilometer but it looks kind of uphill all list the favorites then

we'll get your prediction who's going to win yasper phillipson is the heavy favorite at plus 155. Mads Pedersen at plus 310, Ben Turner plus 550, Ethan Vernon plus 800, Ulyos Ullar plus 2,200, Nico Dens plus 2,700, Brian Kakard, that would be amazing, plus 3,300, Arnie Mark, plus 3,300. It goes on and on. We'll call them out what we need to, and if you want to bet, go to Nxtebats.com slash bet outcomes, and it will show you where to bet where you live and the best sign of bonuses and prices. But Johan, who do you, I assume you think this is sprint, not breakaway, but how do you think it's going to play out? out and who do you think is going to win? Yeah, I think it's Prince Spencer. It's, you know, it's, it is,

it is a hard area there. You know, my, my son raised the last year, he raised the wealth of jihuelo, where, where the finish is. And, uh, and he also did tour of salamanca is. I mean, it's, it's not easy. But I assume they're going to use bigger roads. Um, and so 1300 meters of elevation, it's, you know, for any professional, that's basically a flat stage, right? So I think Bunchprint for sure. And even if it's a bit uphill, I'm going to pick Yosper Philipson. There's a reason why he stayed in this race. I mean, he could have gone home.

So I'm going to pick Jasper Philipson to win at plus 175. Also because he still has the majority of his team here, there's guys who all these guys stayed in the race for the pure fact that they want to assist Philipson in the lead out train. So he's my favorite doing the stage tomorrow. Oh, he's plus 155 on Fanduel, 175 on Unabet, where you're looking at it. But I'm going to go Mads Pedersen, plus 310. I know he went all out today before he fell apart in the last 4K.

He looks so strong, though, that in its uphill, I believe that Mads can get another win here before the end. So I'm going to go Pedersen at plus 310. Pedersen is, I mean, listen, he's impressive, you know, and this is obviously, you know, the difference between the big pure sprinters and Mats Pedersen, who is considered not a pure sprinter, I think that's fair to say. It's evened out because of fatigue, right? I was equally surprised to see him go full gas today.

I say, well, why? I mean, you're not going to score points. I mean, first of all, you don't need the points. That's number one, right? Yeah. And now we're talking about Patterson, Spencer. You know that Mats Patterson this year, except one stage race where he abandoned, was early in the season. It was all the Bessage.

I think three quarters of the teams went home because it was dangerous with traffic and stuff. They protested and they went home. So he abandoned there. But every other stage race he did, he won the points jersey. Wow. And it's going to happen again. So pretty impressive stat. That is pretty impressive.

he's also so so he's not just a like stage race specialist because you look he got seventh at san ramo third at second at e3 first at level gum fifth at doors second at tour of flanders third at peyer ruby that's a pretty good run through the spring wow i mean he's quietly become he is up there in the top tier with van derpool ban art tady pagachar in the spring yeah for sure and i guess yesper phillipson on some Asians who decides I'll be a world-class classics writer. But, I mean, I even wonder, like, what's Little Trek going to do? You look, there's like an uncategorized climb that tops out about 8K from the finish,

then you have a descent until 5K to go. Like, I kind of wonder what little Trek is going to do there or if they can do anything in there to try to make it not a routine bunch sprint. Yeah, the question is, is it hard enough, you know, is it hard enough to put Philipson in problems. Let's not forget, you know, I mean, tomorrow stage 19, right? You know, the energy levels are low everywhere, from everywhere, you know. You have these guys like these freaks of nature like Pedersen who are just keep going.

But the majority of the riders are just dragging themselves. And, you know, you need a team to put the herd on somebody else. And my fear is that the strength is not there anymore to do. that as a team yeah that's a good point very good point um and if it's not phillipson do you have a wild card um difficult but uh i'm going to pick ben turner plus 600 on unibet one stage already you know in aos is on a roll i don't know if ben turner wants to you know have somebody else their head shaved and so

so yeah Ben Turner is going to be my wildcard at plus 600 I'm going to go I'm just going to keep going I'm going to 10 times you Jake Stewart who I think could have

maybe contested the win the other day when his teammate got into the group with Pedersen and pulled away from him but Jake Stewart's at plus 5500 he's beaten Jonathan Milan

in a bunch of month this year very fast guy on Israel Premier Tech I'm going to go Jake Stewart at plus 5,500 to win. Okay. Good pick. But we'll see how it works. I mean, there's a reason I guess he's plus 5500, but I think that's pretty good value. Any other thoughts, Johan, before we take off?

No, not really. All right. We will be back tomorrow to break down what I assume is a pretty sleepy stage night team. If you have any errands, go get them done. The protesters seem to not care about stages that don't have GC implications, so I'm sure we'll run. smoothly tomorrow and then have all types of problems on Saturday. Yeah. Okay, Spencer. Thanks.

Talk to you later. Bye.