THEMOVE - Does This Giro Still Have a Surprise Up Its Sleeve? | Giro d'Italia 2026 Week 2 Review | THEMOVE

Episode Date: May 25, 2026

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Sunday's Giro Stage 15, won by Uno-X's Fredrik Dversnes Lavik after a cat-and-mouse chase against the sprinters on the streets of Milan, before looking back through the second week of this Giro, pulling out a few trends and attempting to predict what is coming in week three, including Tuesday's explosive mountain stage in Switzerland. Buy tickets to THEMOVE's live show on May 31st https://www.myticketshop.be/event-details/wattage-festival-2026/777   Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team   Henson Shaving: Visit https://hensonshaving.com/themove or use code themove to receive 100 free blades with the purchase of a razor (over 2 years supply). Just make sure both products are in the cart for the code to take effect.   Sheath Underwear: Sheath. The underwear of legends. Go to https://www.sheath.com/THEMOVE and use code THEMOVE for 20% off.   Shopify: Start your business today with the industry's best business partner, Shopify, and start hearing  SFX Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial today at https://shopify.com/themove   Cheers: Take Cheers Restore after your last drink or before going to bed and wake up feeling at least 50% better — or your money back. For a limited time our listeners are getting 20% off their entire order at https://CheersHealth.com/THEMOVE  #Cheers #ad   Saily: Get an exclusive 15% discount on Saily data plans! Use code THEMOVE at checkout. Download Saily app or go to https://saily.com/THEMOVE   Square: Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at https://square.com/go/themove! #squarepod   Lagoon: Use code MOVE for 15% off at https://LagoonSleep.com/THEMOVE

I'm afraid that, you know, the days of breakaways that make it are a bit over unless you're a really good climber and you need a mountain stage in a breakaway. But from now and I think it's going to be pretty straightforward racing. But yeah, I mean, you know, it's been entertaining so far. I think personally that the GC is done and dusted based on what I've seen from Jonas Wingergarde and Vizma's strength. But that doesn't mean that we're not going to see any interesting racing anymore. Everybody, welcome back to The Move.

I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Brunel. We are breaking down stage 15, which just finished this Sunday. And then we will also go through our week two review, saying what we learn from week two, what we are looking forward to in week three as well. Johan, before we get going, do you want to quickly plug? I just remember today, our next full, the move episode will be live in Belgium. Do you want to quickly plug that if people want to come see us?

Yes, for the first time in the existence of the move, we will be doing a live podcast. I mean, there's already been a live podcast in Mellow Johnny's, I think, right? Yes. But now we're going across the ocean. There's the Wheeler Wattage Festival in Belgium, which is 293031 of this month. It's a three-day event. There's a lot of activities all around cycling. You and I are going to be there already from, I guess, Thursday evening, Friday.

So the move will be, I mean, it's the recap of the whole Gero on the last stage of the Gero 31st of May. We will be there in Belgium at the Belgian coast on stage in front of a live audience of, if I'm not mistaken, around a thousand people. So that will be exciting. So it'll be you, me, and Bradley Wiggins. Yeah, Bradley, if you hear this, meet us there, please. This is your notification that we're doing a live show. And if you want to buy tickets or know where it is, there's a link in the show notes.

You just have to go down there. But, Yohan, we don't have to spend too much time on stage 15. Pretty simple stage. I thought it was going to be a boring stage. It kind of was a boring stage, but it was kind of amazing as well. RCS, they're playing 40 chess. They know what to serve us up on Sundays. It was 156 kilometers.

A breakaway win early. You could tell the sprinter's teams right away were nervous. It was very nervy because they're all very tired because they just had a brutal mountain stage. Yesterday, they don't want to have to pull back a big move. So they don't let this move go. Then, Bardiani, Pulti, Visit Malta, kudos to this team, these teams. They know what they're here to do and they're not messing around. They immediately counterattack.

It's a Mercco, Miestry, Martin, Marscululul. I'll let you say his last name, Marcel Lucy, and then Matias, Mattia Bice. These are all strong guys. These are like stalwarts of the Gero breakaway. They are up the road. They have a small gap, 153K to go. The Sprinters team say this is fantastic. Let's block the road.

Well, there's an UnoX rider on the side of the road who's waiting for this to happen. Does not stand up, but they're going 52K an hour. So he must be going pretty fast. And he just kind of accelerates seated without making a scene. right off the front and then right as he goes, the road is blocked. I thought there's a very smart move. Good way to get in the breakaway without burning a lot of matches. He gets up there.

They maybe have a little Moto help. They're ripping along 51k an hour average. They go into Milan. Actually, as soon as they get in a Milan, you can kind of tell they're not going to catch them because they're not bringing any time back. It's just hovering around two minutes. Once you're in a city like that, you can go very fast in a breakaway, especially if you have cars in front of you.

There's not a lot of wind. You're protected by the buildings. and all the cars and the vehicles can create almost a wind vortex through the, like it sucks you along through these buildings. And the Peloton just couldn't get any, they could not get a time, like a speed advantage on them. They couldn't pull it back. UnoX wins. There also was a time neutralization, GC time.

We'll talk about that later in the episode. But Johan, who it's the name of our winner? I'm not even going to attempt this. You're not going to try, Spencer. Okay. It's Frederick Verstness. Verstness. It's a bit, I mean, for me also, it's not easy to pronounce, but his second important race, he wins, I think.

I mean, he won a few other races, but I remember him. He won more wins than I thought, actually. Yeah. Seven pro wins, yeah. Yeah, so he won a stage in Tireno, Adriatico, staying ahead of Matyvon d'Rourpool. And now in the Giro stage win. He's 29 already. He's a bit of an all-rounder, but today he's a bit of an all-rounder.

but the day he was definitely on a mission. To me, he looked like the strongest and the smoothest in the breakaway. And he looked like he, it looked like he was pretty confident that he was going to win this. And he won it quite easily, I would say. And yeah, I wouldn't say an easy win. They had to work hard to stay out in front. But yes, once they were inside the last few hundred meters,

it was almost a formality. It almost looked like, it looked like, Mastri was sprinting behind him and he wasn't sprinting, but he was ahead of him. It was almost an optical illusion. I thought he didn't know where the finish line was. Yeah, he won a stage of Arctic Tour of Norway. I'm always kind of on vacation, not paying attention when that's happening, but that was last year. But yeah, we remember him from Torano Adiratio, stage five last year where he stayed ahead of Matthew Vanderpull for solo breakaway.

So clearly he's strong. I would guess, as soon as I saw Unox go in the breakaway, wanting to be in the breakaway, I was a little suspicious. because that's a team that everything they do, they do with a lot of thought. So they clearly had thought about this. They thought, you know, Unabet, that's a big team. All those guys are big guys except for while poles. They're going to be fatigued from the mountain stage yesterday. You could tell, too, like Sudal, Lidol, the guys pulling on the front.

They were at a very low cadence. Everyone looked like they had noodle legs. Well, I mean, Spenter, that's usually what happens after two weeks of racing, you know? in a grand tour. Everybody's super tired. Lots of teams don't have a full team anymore. Some guys are sick. Some guys are just dragging themselves.

I mean, the top speed is not there anymore. But anyway, Spencer, I would like to, I mean, I know you have your thoughts on this controversy, I would say. First of all, these four riders were riding really strongly. 51 kilometers average for the whole stage. It's super fast. And then there was quite a few complaints, actually, from the Peloton, some heavy criticism from some riders saying that, yeah, well, today the motorbikes decided that the brake was going to stay away.

What do you think about this? I guess it's like a two-pronged question. Did the motorbikes help them today? Yes, they did. Did the motorbikes help them every day? Yes, they do. I mean, go look at Philippa Oganas time trial. There's a cavalcade in front of them the whole time.

You know, like this happens every stage, especially if there's Italians up the road and you're at this year to tell you, I would be frustrated to if I was a little trek. And I'm, you know, because here, I'm just going to, this is, the math on this is crazy. So with 33K to go, if the, all the breakaway, let's say the breakaway average 52K an hour, which they did. the Peloton has to average around 55K an hour to reel them in with 33K to go.

That's probably not going to happen. I mean, you're reaching a velocity that a group just can't hold on the flat. So that is frustrating for them. Oh, yes. But on the contrary, I would say, you know,

you can also argue that the four riders in front are or should get fatigued and gradually slow down. Obviously, that didn't happen today. but that's usually what's been taken into account when a breakaway is going and a group is a pro I know but as a pro rider really going to fatigue it is a three hour long stage I don't think a pro is going to fatigue over three hours after two weeks yes I mean yeah this is to them this this is Victor Kampinar it's morning activation three hours spend at a brown threshold that's

no no that every day when he wakes up listen they did a hell of a job but I can I can understand the frustration. This is not the first time we're hearing this. We're hearing this a lot, right? And so it does happen. It does happen. But if we were hearing, we do hear a lot, but if it's so well known, why don't more riders get in the breakaway then if it's a cheat code to winning?

Yeah. Okay. But it shouldn't happen. It does happen. I mean, you know, everybody wants to be there. Everybody wants to have that perfect picture. You know, there were complaints in the tour of Romandie from riders about that the Pogacar being behind the motorbikes also.

I've seen this many, many times in races. You know, motorbikes and cars can influence the outcome of the race. Of course, the guys we have heard complaining were the guys from Little Trek, the guys from Unibet and the guys from Sudal Quixstep, the three teams that didn't manage to bring the break back, right? But I think it was kind of telling Walshite's interview, you know, he said, you know, we and the rockets, the Unibet Rockets in Sudan, we burned our whole team and we were not able to catch them.

All the time on the flat, I was doing 500 watts. The motorbikes took the stage away. He said, you know, same comments from Totenberg, for example, and then a guy from Unibet, Reinders, who said that I have his quote here. Let me see. That was also quite interesting. he said something like here very frustrated rangers speaks clearly about the motorbikes we have burned 30 people in the chase and we were not able to catch them

you could see spencer with you know with normally i would say you know okay the peloton can accelerate the breakaway slows down, they're going to look at each other. Taking all that into account, 20, 25K to go, I said, you know, maybe it's still possible. The last 15 to 10 kilometers, when the break kept it around like 45, 50 seconds, I started to say, okay, this is not going to happen. And then on top of that, you see that teams were really running out of firepower. You know, I mean, when Derek G himself, who is the GC guy, or, I mean, I assume he still is.

he's still in the top 10. When he needs to come to the rescue, just to keep the pace up, then you know, okay, this is going to be very difficult. Yeah. Yeah, exactly.

You know, and then what you have is, that's when you really knew that they were not going to catch them. Because normally you can see, sometimes it happens, right, there's a guy away or two, you know, and then in the last kilometer,

they have 15 seconds and the peloton just comes surging. You know that this was, this was not going to have. happen because it was the lead out guys themselves who had to do the chase. So in the last kilometer, there was never going to be that acceleration anymore. That usually happens and brings down, brings back 10 to 15 seconds in the last kilometer. You know it's bad too when Unibet's launching attacks themselves.

That's never a good sign. That means it's done. That was a real panic attack. That was not, yeah, that was not bringing anything. Yeah. I didn't hate it. Yeah, I didn't hate it because what if they start messing around up front? I think it's nice. It's nice that the breakaway makes it, you know, suspends until the end.

Otherwise, it would have been a very predictable stage. I have nothing against bunch prints. You know, there's not that many in this zero anyway. But yeah, I mean, listen, chappo for those four guys, you know, they worked for it. I mean, and the thing is, it's not their fault that the motorbikes are so close. You're right. I mean, if you want to have that advantage and you go in the break, you know you're going to have that advantage. So you could say, well, you know, if that's the way you have to race with that mentality, it's kind of messed up.

It is. I'm definitely not saying it's not messed up. I'm just saying every, it seems like every race we hear complaints about it. Maybe alter your behavior at a certain point. And look, you know, in today's cycling with eyes everywhere, you know, everybody's a photographer. Everybody's a videographer.

Everybody's, everything's controlled and is on social media, straight away. In the 80s and the 90s, I mean, there was some racist man. I mean, it was unbelievable. You know, I mean, I just sent you a video there of,

you know, a big race in Italy where it was bad. But it was normal. I mean, you kind of, you attacked on the podium. You were behind, and especially if you're in Italian, you're behind the motorbikes. You do the downhill. You come on the Via Roma.

And it's like, it's like, you know, an echelon of cars and motorbikes. you're drawn to the, you know, to the finish line. It was often also, like I remember, even in the early 2000s, you know, when we were racing Pari Roubaix, you always knew, you know, the guy in Pari Roubaix, for example, the guy who comes in first position and with a little bit of advantage, out of Carafour de Larbra, wins the race because the motorbikes are there, waiting.

And it's like, there's like a whole, a whole group of motorbikes that, you know, they come one by one to have that shot and you're gone you know and i guess in defense of the breakaway like because the breakaway is definitely they had a moto right in sorry the peloton had a motto right in front of them for once they were in milan i guess where it starts to become a problem is the speed you know you look at this uno x bike this thing is a speed machine like they don't doesn't look like they care about climbing at all it's just like a track bike almost and when you have people that arrow plus a motto it doesn't matter if the peloton has a motto because they can't they physically cannot go fast enough even with the draft to overcome the differential i guess would

be the argument bike is probably not that much of a factor i don't know man these bikes and these these setups they have it you don't think that that's me but why are the speeds getting so fast then no no i mean no i'm not saying that but it doesn't make that much of a difference because everybody's on aerobikes. But if everyone's on an arrow bike, it makes it harder to catch the breakaway because it's harder to go. There's a point where you cannot go any faster, even with an arrow setup. So it's harder to pull breakaways back than it used to be.

Yeah. Yeah. So it's kind of not fair if they have arrow setups and they have a motto. Because even if you have an arrow setup yourself with your own motto, you can't overcome the time differential. Yeah, because you can't go 60K an hour. It was clear what Walsh had said. You know, I was doing 500 watts on the flats.

We could not go any harder. There you have it. They couldn't go any harder. But, you know, they were also going very, very fast in the front. It was, let's think. They asked this. That was a good quote, actually. They asked Frederick Verseness about that, you know,

complaints, those complaints from the Peloton about the motorbikes. And he made a very good statement. He said, yeah, it's true. There were four motorbikes in the breakaway today. I mean, they rode, they rode the hell of a race man, those four guys. I'd be annoyed if I just won a zero stage from a breakaway that anyone could have jumped in, and that's what I got asked. How many Norwegians have won a stage of the Giro to tell you?

I don't know the answer. I just know Tour Herschf won one. And then today, this might be it. There's more and more. Yeah, yeah, there's other guys. There's other guys. I think there's other guys. I don't know.

I'm just thinking, I'm just thinking about one guy that just comes to mind from my era. Doc Otto Lauditsyn, Maria. Yeah. That would make sense. I don't know. I don't know. Before Hushchev, though, I mean, besides Doug, how many Norwegians had won grand tour stages? Was there many?

No, I don't think so. Yeah. It is, I mean, it is cool to see. It's cool to see UnoX. I like to see a team coming in with a plan and executing versus a lot of the teams. I mean, if you're little track, if you're, you know, bet if you should have a quick step, you're not going to get in the breakway. They're not going to let each other get in the move. But what about like picnic? Should they have been up there? Yeah, but, you know, then the question is, can they? that's a sad question if we have second division Italian teams in a move and then you're asking if picnic physically can be up there that's not a good situation but it does show you like how fast they're going in this break these are not just like these Italian teams are not out there just soaking up TV time a lot of time that they're going fast and I heard there was even concern from the organizer

that today would be a slow stage because no one would want to get in the breakaway it's like guys we got eight stages left and a lot of teams here haven't won stages so what is it 157k so this three hour race today right three hour race you want an amateur race oh yeah yeah pretty wild try to go out and ride at 32 miles an hour today on your ride after this I can I can do that in some downhills I get to that speed yeah yeah if I was descending holliacla for three hours I could average 32 miles an hour for three hours but let's take a quick break and then we'll be back

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A-S-H-E-A-T-H-H-E-A-T-H-H-C-E-A-T-H-M-E-H-E-T-E-E-H-E-Tees. Okay, Y'An-O-Hon, we are back. So I don't know if this was Max Walshide or another writer, but they hinted that this was an Italian conspiracy to help the Italian teams. wouldn't it been more advantageous for the country of Italy for the Peloton to be contesting the stage with Jonathan Milan? Well, I mean, Jonathan Milan is not in the top 10 today, but anyway, it's not, you know, they didn't sprint for the victory. But I don't think it's an Italian conspiracy. I mean, proof is, you know, the Italians didn't win. If it was a conspiracy, not a great one.

You know, there was three Italians and one Norwegian. And so that's the guy who wins. but no I don't I don't think so it's it's just the nature of the race I mean I do agree though because we see it more we see it a lot and you know there's a lot of complaints from riders it's this not the first time

last year I mean years and years already something should be done about this the problem is what can be done right I mean there's always going to be vehicles you know moving back and forth, you know, that we need, because otherwise we wouldn't be able to watch the race, Spencer. You know, let's be clear.

Some of the, if you start to pay attention, though, we get really close front-on shots. And you're like, this is maybe, maybe pull that thing out a little further. That could not, that cannot be, that cannot be an excuse. I mean, with today's technology, with cameras, you can have a tailor lens on there. You can be 100 meters or from and you can still have them. Yeah. I don't think that should be the reason. I don't know what the solution.

But, you know, if we see side shots and shots from the back and now and then a shot from the front, I could live with that. We don't need to see them always from the front. Yeah, exactly. Why do I need this continuous shot from the front? Yeah. I don't. I do find that odd sometimes.

Like, why are we up their nostrils for four hours? Does this help? It's not just one motorbike. It's the constant move of, you know, vehicles and they take turns, you know, they all want their shot. Yeah, I mean, obviously. You're saying this is Liz Crude's fault. I've seen her on a motorbike. I could imagine her saying.

Get close to that guy. Pushing her driver to be in this position. And I know, I want that shot. I mean, and everybody does the same. Everybody wants the shot, you know. So, yeah. I think it needs to be probably more regulated, less motorbikes, for sure. Less motorbikes would be a solution.

You know, I would be in favor of installing a system, for example, to mix it up a little bit. Like, you know, all the riders on the teams and all the teams have on-bike cameras. And we would get really, really, really good images from within the Peloton. They can mix that up with. I mean, it's a lot of work for the production team to do at life. But, you know, if everybody has the camera, it's, you know, it's an equal, equal playing field. The, it's, it's, it's been talked about.

It's the same as always, you know, the childish, the childish dispute and the fight about, you know, who owns the rights of those images. You know, the, the teams will say, we own it. The organizers would say, we own it. the UCI will say, okay, we own it. Why don't we just share? Let's just share the ownership and share, you know, the revenue of those images. That would be a good.

I mean, it would solve a lot of problems. We would get other images that are really interesting. So we would need less images from the front. It would solve, you know, some financial struggles for certain teams. And both the organizers and the UCI would also get extra income. Well, yeah, there's a lot of pushback on, oh, we can't do that technologically. It's like, well, I'm seeing a live feed of an F1 driver's helmet. So I think in the live broadcast, so you can probably figure that up.

That's not the same, Spencer, because that's on a circuit. The problem with a bike race is it's moving and you always need to have planes, with helicopters, planes that you can relay to all the time. The images, you know, you need them fast. You don't need them 30 minutes later. You need them now. That's the issue. Well, you've keyed us up perfectly because was today's race on a circuit?

It was. And why was it? Kind of at a weird, kind of a weird stage if you think about it. How often do you see a circuit in a capital level city? I know Milan's not the capital of Italy, but a major city in a country that's not the last day. You rarely see it. It has happened in Milano before, and you were there, 2009, and the stage was neutralized. Happened in Rome that was at the end of the Giro that year in 2018, and they neutralize the riders refused to race on it.

So it's not, it probably didn't catch them completely off guard. But A, why did, I'm not going to complain so much because I, this was one of my favorite stages of the race so far to watch. I thought it was actually pretty fun. but it is a weird stage to have on stage 15. It felt like a final day procession. It was on a city circuit that was deemed so dangerous by Jonas Finnegard. He went and yelled at the commissaire and they neutralized the time. I have my comments on that.

It's not deemed by Jonas Viguer. Jonas was the voice of the Peloton. Same as 2009. I do remember it vividly. It was more or less the same circuit. It was also in the middle of the, of the, of the Giro, the Giro also finished in Rome that year. It did rain a bit at some point and then it kind of got dry a little bit,

but it was super dangerous. The whole Peloton was complaining. They didn't want to race. Then Lance had the task to go and talk with the race director, which was Angelo Zomignon at the time. He got so mad. The Peloton decided not to race. And finally they decided, okay, the race is neutralized.

and the race goes on just for the stage win, but not for the time. You know, I got in a little discussion with ex-UCI President Brian Cookson on social media about this. He said that, you know, this shouldn't happen like minutes before the end of the race to have to change this. I argued that, you know, unless you're not in the middle of the situation, being the riders and actually experiencing the risks, and the potential dangers, you can't judge.

And then he said, okay, you know, I meant that this should not be the case that this gets approved. Why are we having this conversation during the race? Exactly. Yeah, yeah. So I agree kind of with Cookson on the fact that a stage like this, you have to take into account that this can be risky. And there needs to be a plan B.

it who says it's not going to rain you know in case of rain this this was this was going to be impossible to race yeah and do you think city circuits not maybe not i shouldn't phrase it like that do you think riding in on circuits in big cities like this is generally more dangerous than an open course that they would i mean i mean yes because especially because in a city the roads are more greasy always there's no cars you know more more furniture on the road too and so uh the slightest bit of rain, it's ice skating instead of bike racing. But anyway, today didn't rain, but the riders felt like it was dangerous. I mean, I can't say because, you know, of course, I'm not there.

If there were many complaints, it's probably for a reason. And more because of, you know, the risk of, okay, why do we have to race like crazy here on this city circuit and lose time? we've been fighting for two weeks to maintain our position. And now because of the stupid circuit, you know, so finally what they did, they initially, so the five, the five kilometer rule was already in place instead of the three kilometer rule. So that means that if anything happens in the last five kilometers, you get the time of the group you're in.

And I think it means that it's any crash or mechanical, right? It means you can't just sit up, right? Exactly. Then I think the initial, then first, then afterwards they said in the first instance, the way I saw it is they were going to change the 5 kilometer rule to, okay, GC is taken with 5K to go. And then they kept pushing the riders. And then finally they said, okay, the last lap. Once you cross across the finish line, the second last time, that's the time of GC. And then the last lap is, you know, for the for the stage win.

I don't think it's a bad decision. It just, maybe it should have been made. Maybe it should have been made this decision should have been made already before the race. Yeah, I agree. I think great outcome. I think it should have been, that just should have been on the schedule the whole time, right?

But can they not do that? Like, is there something in the rules that says they can't put that in beforehand? Why does this always happen during the stage? Yeah. I don't know. I don't know. I guess they, you know, listen, I have not heard any writers complain today about that decision,

that the times were taken on the second, the second last time on the finish line. Nobody has complained about that, right? Because nobody is going to take advantage of the situation. Nobody's going to gain time on an opponent because we could. because of this. So I think it was a good decision. It's just like, we talked about this before,

before the show, Spencer, my question is the approval of the courses. You know, I mean, we've had, we've talked, we're talking about this many,

many times, you know, stages that are super dangerous. Who approves these courses? Now, and when are they approved? They announced the route, what,

five, six months before the race, or even more. I don't know in the case of the Gero because a normal grand tour does it. Yeah. Maybe eight or nine months before. Then then the question is who goes and checks out these courses physically and says, okay, hey, you know what?

This is not good, you know. Does it happen? I don't think. I think it happens the morning of. They're supposed to be, you know, responsible people at the UCI. We've already talked about this. Who are these people? Are they, sometimes I see that sometimes they're, they're part of the organization.

The UCI, the safety manager, whatever it is. So this system does not work. There's too many instances that it's dangerous and you get to this, you get to the moment or the day before or in the race and then, hey, you know what, we can't race like this. Somebody has to check out these these courses. It should be done. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say, you know, they're not doing it on the forehand.

They're doing it once they're there. And then not much can be changed. Yeah, I think you're exactly right. I think that's why it happens. I guess in their defense, no one should really be defending that because it's unacceptable, right? They should be checking everything out far beforehand. But the courses kind of don't exist until the day before because if you and I went to check this finish out, in November, we're just in the middle of Milan.

There's no course. There's no barrier set up. It doesn't look anything like it would look when the race is happening. Yeah. That's true. I mean, a race course changes completely. You know, you go out and check. I mean, I've done this many times with riders.

You go and reconn a course in April. And you need to imagine what it's going to look like in July. You know, it's completely different. The same with this city circuit. I'm even going to think a city circuit, like a big city like Milan, there's probably even parts where if you go in normal traffic and check it out, you can't preview the course because there's probably one-way streets that the riders go in. And it's completely different.

So that's why a city circuit is obviously always tricky to put that in a course. you know, you have it on the last day, you know that everything's done. Nobody will, nobody will do anything crazy. Usually, like, for example, on the Charles Ely, when it starts to rain lightly, they usually neutralize the times when at the entrance of the Charles Elyze, it has happened many times already. But it's still always a debate in the race, in the stage. I know.

It's so odd. Yeah, always the same. And I think the outcome today was great. Where they got was fantastic. But yeah, how they get there? Why are we constantly doing this in the middle of the stages? And it can't look good. You know, you and I are very bad judges of this because we're going to watch no matter what.

But if you're just a regular person and you turn on HBO Max and you're like, what the hell's going on here? Like, why are they debating the route during the stage? I see it just doesn't reflect that well in the sport probably. No, it doesn't look professional. Well, Johan, let's take one more ad break and then we will go through. Week two. Talk about who won, who lost, and then what we're looking forward to in week three. Everybody, this episode is brought to you by Saley. I spent a lot of time traveling in different countries for my work, breaking down pro cycling, and I'm using a ton of mobile data when I'm there to pull up the live checker, just stream the race. Like I'm going to be doing in a few days, and I'm glad I have Saley because I've not really planned ahead. And if you don't, your phone bill can get out of control. But Saly fixes that. It's an ESIM app from the same people who built NordVPN that gives you affordable data plans in over 190 countries, no switzerland.

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into the second week. So we had kind of a, you know, stage 10 through 15. So Ghana wins the time trial, 42 kilometer time trial, rips it. Yeah, maybe a little bit of help from, we didn't talk about this in the podcast. Maybe he passed. He must have passed 10 riders. Seven. Maybe more.

Seven. And he had just constant, you know, because there's a car, there's the rider, there's other things. At least seven cars and seven motorbikes. Yeah. And sometimes At least. At least. It was more. Yeah. Yeah. And then stage 11 won by Jonathan Narvaez. It's kind of a beautiful breakaway stage win. Is that right? Has he won more stages than I'm forgetting? It must have been out of a breakaway. Correct? Am I wrong? Stage 11?

Yeah, he was over Enric Moss. He was on like a pseudo mountain stage. And then we had the breakaway, the late, late breakaway on stage 12 should have been, was supposed to be, reduced bunch sprint, not a, yeah, reduced sprint of some kind out of the peloton by Alec Seigart and then stage 13, Alberto Betiel, another beautiful, we've had a lot of beautiful wins here, beautiful breakaway win along at Lake Majore, stage 14 was a tough mountain stage. Vizma, I don't know if we talked about this enough in the podcast, but they must have had everyone's effort broken down to the meter and they executed perfectly, like where everyone was going to pull and that's why Tim Rex needed to get to that point, push them, himself over the limit.

Jonas Finnegard wins, takes the race lead. And then today, the breakaway, another breakaway stage win in Milan. The, Johan, the common theme here is

the sprinters are not getting a lot of chances. These breakaways are going up the road. If we go through the, the wins, we have Jonas Finnegard as three wins. Jonathan Ravias has three wins. Paul Monnier is two.

The only real sprinter with the stage win. Thomas Silva has won. Igor Arieta has won. David de Valerini has won. Bertobediel has one. Seigart has one. Vernis Laptvik. Today's winner has won.

Ghana has won. The teams are even, it's even in bleaker picture. UAE has four wins. Vizma has three. Astana has three. Sidal Quick Step as two. Net company NEOS has won.

Bahrain is one. And UnoX has won. All of those, UnoX is maybe technically a smaller team, but it is a world tour team. And they do put a lot of money and time into their preparation. So it's showing you that these wins are not coming

just the teams like, oh, we're going out there to race. Oh, we won a stage. Like, you have got to be dialed in at this year to tell you to win a stage. Are the sprinter's team starting to get worried? I mean, Sudol Quickstep, they're minted. Paul Monnier, he doesn't win another stage. He still has a great tour. But is everyone else a little worried?

I mean, of course. I mean, I think the difference what we see in this year compared to other races is that more breakaways actually have a chance. I mean, there's been some big ground tours where we, you know, like breakaways just didn't have a chance. It was so controlled either by G.C. or by sprinter teams that breakaways didn't make it. Now you just named those last five stages.

There's three breakaways in there, right? No, four. Three. Well, it was a breakaway every day except for the time trial and then the Vindigard. Yeah. So that's good. That's good. I mean, today obviously is an exception.

There should have been a bunch sprint. But yeah, I mean, I think it's interesting and it's also motivating for some teams that they do have a chance if they're going to breakaway. I'm afraid that, you know, the days of breakaways that make it are a bit over unless you're a really good climber and you know in a mountain stage in a breakaway. But from now on I think it's going to be pretty straightforward racing. But yeah, I mean, you know, it's been entertaining so far. I think personally that the G.C. is done and dusted based on what I've seen from Jonas Wingergaard and Vizma's strength. But that doesn't mean that we're not going to see any interesting racing anymore.

I'm going to ask you about the G.C. in a second. But something else that happened today that's interesting, or I guess on Sunday, if you're listening to this on the rest day, that no one will notice. So, Paul Manier, we were talking yesterday. He's going to win the stage. He's going to get the jersey back, the points jersey. He does get the points jersey back, but just by 14 points because he gets one point at the intermediate sprint and he gets fifth on the stage.

He wins the bun sprint. He only gets 14 points, though. If he would have won the stage, he gets 50. So that's a 36 point delta. He basically misses 36 points on today's stage. And then going into these next few stages, Narvaeus is going to, I assume, try to go up the road and start getting intermediate sprint points. he might even win more stages because there's multiple breakaway,

potential breakaway days. Is Paul Monnier in serious trouble in this points jersey? It's not going to be, I mean, Narvaise is going to try, and he's in incredible shape. So that's his big rival. It means kind of, you know, strange to see that. Another sprinter is not the rival for the Chiclamino jersey, you know? But that's going to be an interesting battle. And if Narvaise gets in a break and has.

I mean, but what are the points for non-sprint stages? Are, is it the same points? I believe it's less. So it's 50 for a sprint stage. It's, oh, wow. It's really dynamic. So like yesterday was 15 points. If we go back to stage 11, Narvaeus got 25 points for that stage.

But then some of them might be like stage nine might have been, is that 30 points at the finish? No, 15, yeah. There's still Rome where it should be a bunch sprint. So that's going to be 50 points, right? So it could be, it could very well be that the points jersey is not decided until Rome. And that might be what we have to look forward to for the rest of this. For the rest of this race. Also another classification that's not G.C.

KOM. So I'm sure everyone's locked in on this. But Jonas Finnegard is a one point lead over Pablo Savilla, Diaz. Diego, Diego Pablo Sevea. And then Felix Gall is behind, sorry, no, I'm on the wrong stage. I think Chaconne is third, and that's why I was going to ask you about. So, sorry, Jardy Christian Vanderley is second. And then Chaconne is third.

Vindigard has 161 points. Chikone has 75. Does Chaconne have a chance here? No. No. Not even if he gets into every breakaway. Yeah, but Vingeggerard is going to score points. on those last on those last mountaintop finishes.

So that would mean that Chikona goes in the break, gets all the points, and actually stays up front to score points on the last climb, which is going to be difficult. Yes. I think Yonos wins the mountains classification without trying. So a cat one climb is 40 points. A cat one finishing climb is 50 points.

So that's Yonis's big advantage. Like Tuesday's stage, you know that's a cat one climb finishing climb it's probably not a breakaway you look at stage 19 i think stage 19 could be a breakaway potentially that would be the one that's that'd be where chikone would win a stage i think and then maybe even probably not pioncobalo because that's two passes of a cat one climb that's going to be hard for a breakaway um all right so your pick is yeah but it's you know at the same time spencer it's the least of yonov finger guards concerns not blue jersey well he's not even going to think about it no i mean he doesn't have to try but if he

if he doesn't get it so what i mean fine is that a flaw in the k-o-m it's never good when you have a rider that's not trying to win something and is winning it over riders that are trying and not winning i mean it's happened i've seen many times also like for example you know what i mean i don't know if they changed the system now the point system but you know there was a there were many times in the tour of Spain, for example, that the GC guys were also in the lead for the points jersey. Oh, yeah. That happens a lot. It's in Spain.

Yeah. So, you know, those, those, obviously those other classifications, maybe, you know, people should think about changing the system. And it's kind of strange to see that, especially the mountains classification, right? It's a it happens a lot in ground tours unless you know you have riders like Bogacha and vinka but it happens a lot that the KOM is won by somebody who's by far not the best timer on the tour that being in and the tour will do these things to I mean well they'll do like double points for the highest point or something so you it's basically an HD climb with double points so it's like well then whoever wins that is probably going to win the whole thing

It's not really a competition over three weeks. What was your highlight from the second week? Just personal highlight. Highlight. I mean, there was not that much. I mean, I think, you know what? The stage I bet you'll won. I found that really entertaining.

I think that was pure, pure class. You could say, okay, Ghana, we expected him to win, didn't expect him to win with two minutes and the average speed of almost 56 kilometers per hour was incredible. Was it 56 or 55? 55, no? I thought it was 55.9. Okay. Okay.

So that was obviously incredible. The performance. 54.9. So 55. So the performance of Fingerguard yesterday on the last climb was incredible, I think. It really, I mean, at least the way it looked. but I was really entertained with the breakaway of, you know, Lachnusund and Betjol and those other three or four guys.

And then I think that was, yeah, that was a really entertaining stage. What's kind of funny about, I did think that was a great stage. So that stage and today just completely decoupled from the GC. And TV, they would call this a bottle episode. So you have a season-long arc. They don't do it as much anymore. But they would have 22 episodes in its season. and you'd have like episodes

they're just completely decoupled from the greater narrative. And that's kind of what some of these stages have felt like. That is common in the second week of a grand tour. But sometimes it's a refresh. I find it to be a refreshing break. If you were building the sport from the ground up right now,

you'd say, that's stupid. Don't do that. Why would anyone watch a bit like a quarter of basketball? Like this one has no bearing on the final score. We're just going to play for fun. You say, oh, this is stupid. But today I was just,

I was having a good time watching the race. Same thing with stage 13. just sometimes it's nice to get away from the tension of GC as a viewer, which sounds ridiculous because why would we be feeling pressure or stress? But these tend to be my favorite stages as a viewer. Yeah. Yeah. And so obviously, you know, I think my personal highlight was probably Visma yesterday. That was just, I just couldn't believe how well coordinate they were. Then that's not even their best team for this type of stage. It just shows you the buy-in guys have on that team. You know, like you're going to do this and you're going to feel like you're dying and

you're going to do it for the team and they get people to do it. That's what Tim Rex did. Yeah. He almost died. I mean, literally. Um, no, that was a super performance. I don't think we can say we should be surprised, you know, we could see that coming. Uh, and especially if you have a writer who's so good as Vingerard in this race, uh, so dominant, everybody. does the job to perfection almost. And yeah, that was an amazing performance.

So Jonas had a pretty good week. Other than Jonas, who, like, who is your surprise in the G.C. And who do you think's best position going into week three? Obviously,

goes without saying Jonas Vindigard in a great position, but outside of him. Obviously, Olladio still in second. I think nobody would have thought that. after 15 stages.

There's still a lot of hard stages to come, though. It's going to be not easy for him to stay there. But the other guys are also getting tired. I think Felix Gaul is in poor position to be second in this year, based on what we've seen, especially in climbing-wise. And then I think the battle for the podium is going to be interesting. You know, we have Aronsmann, we have Jay Hindley, Belizari's there.

Belizari's like a winding road, but he's here. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Made it where he was meant to be. I'm going to favor Jai Hindley for the podium. I think he looks good. He's usually pretty good in the last week. Looked good yesterday also. I mean, it doesn't really come to the attention so much

because Jonas Wingerard was so dominant. But I think Hintley did a really good race yesterday. And I think the podium for me is going to be Jonas Wingerard, Felix Gall, Jai Hintley, those three. Yeah, Jai Hensley, I thought, looks scary. I mean, he was pulling time back on Felix Gall at the end of that stage. He looks very good. And if you are trying to get on the podium and you're not Jai Hennel,

you're looking at that third week thinking, that looks pretty good for Jai Hedley. It's kind of scary. And he's writing for a new contract. Or, I mean, he may have signed one already, but you know, he can only make it better with his performances. If Jai Hed. If he gets on the podium of the Gero, it's going to up his value. Whether he has signed or not, he's going to earn more money because of this third position.

Is there tension in situations like that between someone like Jai Hensoli and Paganzoli? And Paganzoli's thinking, I don't, I, like, you are not only my rival in this race. You're potentially my rival next year for leadership and races. No, absolutely not. Paganzoli, the young guy. I mean, you have a 16-year-old. Do you think a young guy with this type of success? I can't wait to work for people.

No. I'm thinking, I'm the man. I'm the next Marco Bentoni. No. There's no tension. I don't. There's no egos in this sport. There is.

There is, but it is something wrong. Absolutely. I got nervous when I saw him climbing in the drops. Spencer, we don't know if it's not confirmed if Hindley goes to Fismar, right? Those are the rumors. They might, they're most likely going to be true, but it's not been confirmed. So we don't. Everybody, this episode is brought to by cheers.

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com slash the move. I think he probably goes to Visma. The funny thing about that is the rumors can sometimes make it not true because now if he does well, let's say he finishes on the podium. Let's say he finishes second. And then his value gets too high. Everyone says, well, he's going to Visma and they give him a better offer and then Visma can't afford him anymore.

Like that could happen. You could ride himself out. out of his contract with Bisma. And then who do you think is going to, so you think the final G.C. is Jonas, Fieldskull, Jai Henley. Yeah, that's what I think. And where do you think Ullalio finishes up?

Four to fifth. Should more teams based on what we saw today, all these breakaways staying away, the fact that Ullalio is probably going to finish top five at this race, should people think about breakaways in the, the first week differently. It's not going to be easy for top five. You actually look at top ten and it's not so easy.

Aronsman Belizade may actually catch him, I think. You know, he's kind of the only writer who's not been in this situation. He may slip, he may slip. But, I mean, listen, he's going to do a great zero. I mean, he already had a great zero. And now, you know, no more pressure. It can go both ways, but I'm going to put him out of the top five. I'm going to say Aronsman and Pilitzeri or completing the top five.

So I'm going to list who's below him and you tell me who he's safe from. Phyllis Gull. I assume that's a no. Arensman? How far is he behind? 34 is, sorry, 37 seconds. No. Jai Henley?

No. Pelasari's two minutes behind. probably will pass him. Michael Stor is 1-220 behind. Stur is a tough, tough guy, you know. That's his position there, 6th, you know, that's so he's, it's going to be up there. Sturr, I mean, he may stay ahead of stirr. And then O'Connor is three minutes behind him.

No, it's O'Connor's cooked, I think. The only thing is, yeah, yeah. And then Derek, probably Derek G. he is over three minutes behind Ula Lio. He's probably safe from him because he's climbing better than him. Three minutes is nothing with the stages we still have. It's nothing assuming the person is a good climber. And it doesn't look like Derchi West is climbing that well at the moment.

I mean, he's not bad. The problem is he's not taking time back on him or significant time. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And today was also, you know, that the fact that he had to come. And so they may say, oh, you know what? Let's maybe forget a little bit about G.C.

I mean, it was not a big effort, a long effort tomorrow's rest day, so it doesn't matter that much. But, you know, if he would have been in fight for the podium, Derek G does not take those polls today. No, no. I mean, that was like true desperation. And you kind of knew that it wasn't, it was already probably, like, unless Derek G can do 65K an hour for 45 minutes, probably not going to pull those guys back. P. Gonzola, and then you have like Pekonzoli and Rondell.

I don't think they're going to catch him. Probably not. Probably not. So should more, you know, if we went back and watched this first week, we'd say, wow, teams are really being flippant a lot about opportunities. Like think back to stage two with that, sorry, stage three. That breakaway almost makes it.

You're like, well, should more teams be up here trying to win stages in non-sprint fashion? And then Ullalio on stage six. six is when he took the time, I believe, should more, I guess, more capable climbers think about doing that versus sitting around waiting to lose time. The tricky thing is, you don't know you're about to, you don't know you're going to lose time in the future, I guess, would be the pushback. But just more people, riders, for example, are you talking about? For example, are you talking about Derek G and Ben O'Connor?

No, no, though. They're not too high profile. It'd be like, you know, like Rondell. but is he learning, is it so valuable for him to ride the way he's riding that you do it? You know what, Spencer, it's not, okay, you make it sound simple and, you know, but, but it's not easy to get in these breakaways, man. You know, you have to be really, really good. And some of those climbers actually sometimes don't have the power to go in those breakaways. They come to the front when it's their terrain.

but in order to get in a break like that you need to be really strong and be able to empty yourself for like five, 10 minutes and then recover from it to be able to hang on and have a possibility to win the stage. So it's not easy to get in breakaways. At least not those breakaways that were really,

you know, on those hard stages. Like the stage is not advisable on the stage that Arieta won, the stage that Betjou won. Those are hard-fought breakaways. man. It's difficult to get in there. You're probably right. That a lot of, I'm overestimating a lot of these, because that is a lot of, especially stage,

the stage Arieta won. If you go back, it is extreme power to get into that move. Guys are just getting punched out of there. But if you go back to stage three, just in terms of stage wins, are teams too flippant about these breakaway opportunities early in grand tours? There was essentially no contest for any breakaway in Bulgaria. Mm-hmm. Like, is that a mistake in retrospect? No, no, because at that point in the race, you know, teams are still complete,

everybody's still fresh. They're going to bring it back, you know. Nothing has happened yet in terms of, you know, physical destruction of a team. Today, it's a different game, right? You can see that they were desperate and they just didn't have it. But in stage three, no, I mean, Sprinter teams are going to do what they have to do and you don't have much of a chance. And then what do you think?

Who's your biggest? Yeah, that is a good point. It's hard. It's hard when the fatigue isn't there. What's going to be the biggest GC surprise in this third week? I can tell you the stages if that helps, if you want to hear that. So we have really a goofy stage on Tuesday, like a goofy in a good way. 113 kilometers is a summit finish.

Whole stage takes place in Switzerland, and it's a hard summit finish, 8% at 11.5K. We'll get your take on who's going to win that in a second. And then you have stage 17, 202K, over mountains, probably a breakaway, and then finishes uphill. So that make, even if you get in the breakaway,

it's a 7% two and a half kilometer climb to the finish. So not so easy to win that. Stage 18 is kind of the most interesting. interesting in terms of could it be a sprint stage? Could it not be a sprint stage? It's a rolling flat finish, but there is a steep climb 10 to 15K before the finish. So do you, if you're a sprinter, do you just get dropped there? That would not be great.

Stage 19. Brutal Dolomides Mountain stage, 151K, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 catarized climb, including the passout, Jiao, which is the highest point of this race, 2,300 meters, basically. stage 20 is a stage in fruley it has one mountain piancavalo but they do it twice and it's 14 and a fk long at 8%. So it's kind of similar to the monte grapa stage on in 24 on stage 20 that pagetra one and then stage 21 is sprint stage in rome presumably unless it's a breakaway but what do you think the biggest gc surprise is going to be?

I don't think we're going to see I mean the only thing I mean the only thing we can hope for is that Hindley and Pelizari improve a little bit. I mean, they've been struggling a bit, especially Pelizari. Other than that, I don't think Felix Gall is going to fade. I mean, he's not going to be able to stay with Jonas, but he's ahead of everybody else. You could see Hindley's coming a bit closer to Gall. That's hopeful. But GC surprises, I don't see any.

I don't see any. Maybe, I mean, I don't know. He said maybe Paganzoli in the top 10, if you can call that a surprise. That could be, but, you know, he said that that's not an objective. So probably not. I don't know. I mean, if you're talking about 7th, 8, 9th and 10th, you can't. I mean, that's really open, right?

I mean, it's hard to be six, seven, or eight in a ground tour. Don't get me wrong. Many writers would love to be in the top 10 in the ground tour. But it's also, you know, once you're off the podium, especially once you're all the top five, not many people care anymore, right? About seven to eight or nine position. I mean, people, the public doesn't know. I mean, if I ask you who was sixth in the Tour de France last year.

I know. Yeah, isn't that funny that? No, I will not know. I would say Kevin Vaclone, just I would just guess that. but he might have been fifth or something actually i don't know jordi jay got and kevin valklan that's the only two guys i know below five was was gau not fifth last year go was fifth you're right who was fourth oscar only yeah onley goll who was sixth could be for people i'm not sure i think teams and riders do care about that a lot oh yeah especially the people who know what most is the writer and and

and his fans and his family, right? Yeah. But I mean, I remember like once I was, once I was seven into two to France, right? I mean, for me, it was an incredible performance. And, you know, my family and my whole village, I got received at the village, you know, when I got back from Paris and nobody else knows about this. You know, who? Nobody knows, right?

But it's still a big accomplishment for an athlete, especially if it's somebody who is not expected to be there. But I don't know. I don't see any big surprises. You know, usually after two weeks, Spencer, the cars are played and everybody, you will constantly see the same five, six riders who are the strongest in the mountains. Maybe, you know, there's a little bit of shuffling for fifth, sixth, they're seventh. But, you know, top three, top four, that's kind of done.

We've got to see more of the same now in the mountain stages. that's well here now this is kind of interesting so you're Gull's fifth Tobias Holland Yohansen 6 at the tour defense last year that's a big result for that guy Kevin Volcano 7th that's a big result yeah

Roglitch 8th not a big result Healy 9th that's a big result for him Jordan J. Gagat is a big result so these guys are going to fight hard for it so this is Johan I thought the same thing then I went back and I started watching old Giro's 2016 Stephen Coizuzewix running away with it

Vincenzo Nibli makes up minutes, minutes in the last few stages. We did not see that coming. Corswick goes into a snowbank loses the race. Shocking. Didn't see that coming. Stage 17, Dumlan has it wrapped up with a bow. Oh, he has to pull over and poop. At the bottom of the Stelvio, terrible timing.

He's still won, right? One but by seconds. You know, it was a sub-minute win because of that. And it was pretty touch and go. Like, he wins that overall. all by 31 seconds. Oh, wow. And he lost a lot of time when he stopped.

If he lost me, who was second? I don't know. Could it be Knight of Guintana? I don't know. I'm not sure. You know, you could just, yeah, you could say Kentana for any grand tour between 2010 and 2020. And you'd probably be right.

But yes, he was second. Okay. He believed was third. 2018, Simon Yates, as it wrapped up, that actually very controlled race. If you talk about a race with no breakaways and probably a mistake in retrospect, who was J-Co. Maybe they were some other name at the time, but they just had that thing on a tight leash.

Chris Frum solo breakaway comes from behind and wins. We don't see that one coming. I was shocked, shocked by that. 2019 Richard Carapas wins over Nebulae and Roglidge. Kind of unexpected, but he was super strong. We saw that one coming in the third week. Teo Gaghanhart, 2020, comes out of nowhere to win that race in the third week.

He was, you go back to 2020, 20, I'm just going to pull up stage where we are right now. Stage 15. Teo Gaganhardt is three minutes behind, Swalameda. And that race goes on to win it. You know, you've got second in that zero.

Woko Kelderman. And third? Jai Henley. Henley, exactly. And that is, it just continues too. Yeah. 2021, Igan Minot wins.

That's a pretty textbook. 2022, Jai Henley wins on stage 20. Technically kind of surprising, but the signs were there. Prima's Roglitz, 20, he wins by 14 seconds, stage 20, but again, the signs were kind of there. 2024, no surprises, Baguacha wins. 2025 last year, Simon Yates, comes from left field to win that thing on stage 20. So the history would suggest it's not wrapped up. And what's funny is the zero is kind of the only one of the grand tours like this in recent years.

Spencer, I mean, I think this, you can't compare. First of all, because we have, except Pogacar, we have the strongest stage racer of the last five, six years, the grand tour racer. Plus, the competition is not, not anywhere. I mean, they are not a threat for Jonas. They're not in the same league. You know, if you look at, you can say, okay, Simon Yates, Carapas, del, in the last year. You know, you can't really say, okay,

this guy's like who's one level ahead of the other guys. You know, Kroiswake was about to win. Nibali was a better ground tour rider. Unfortunately, it was because of a crash. If you look at, was it, was it, when Frum won, it was it, it was Simon Yates, right? Who was in the lead? Yeah, he was in the lead.

Yeah, he was in the team. Yeah, but he was funny is what he did. leapfrog he leapfrog doomilon too so it wasn't just Simon Nade's falling apart yeah um 2026 frum was frum froom was a big champion

I mean he's yes yes four times I mean it's not it's not like so um in this year old spencer that's we're not going to see a scenario like that at least not for the win um we could see something like that for the podium I'm not saying that that could not happen but not for the win

um you know I guess we're going to talk about stage six stage 16 you know on on on tuesday i think that but here this is crazy so stage at the end of stage 18 in 2016 vincenzo nebulae we remember him winning from the crash he was fourth place there's two other riders that are not steven kroydwick he's four minutes 43 seconds down at the end of stage 18 and he wins that race yeah like that yeah just snipes chavez and uh Valverde. Pretty impressive in retrospect. But yeah, stage 16 on Tuesday is a goofy stage out of a rest. It's going to be fast. It's going to be hard. Goofy stage, but it's super hard. You know, 113 kilometers only.

With five catarized climbs. Five climbs. And especially the last climb, you know, 11.7 kilometers, 8%. Hard climb. And then especially the last one and a half kilometer, it's constantly around 10% with some parts at 13%. So G.C day, it's short. I think Visma's going to do the same strategy. You know, they're strong enough. And I think that Jonas can comfortably look what happens on the last climb and could, in theory, with a relatively short effort in the last one and a half two kilometers, take another 30, 40 seconds and just wrap it up and then say, okay, guys, now you guys fight for it. I'll just stay. close to my big rivals. I've worked out a deal. RCS is letting me leave, actually. They're going to let me just skip the final few stages.

Yeah, I think you're right. I agree with that. I think Yon is going to win. Let's talk about what scenarios happen where he does not win this. Breakaway. Yeah, but where is a breakaway? Yeah. Yes, you're right.

That's the only way. If it's a fight for G.C., then there's nobody beating him. And I know we just opined about how the breakaways are dominating this race, but where does a breakaway? Yeah, I mean, but on stages like this, Spencer, it's different. 113K long. I mean, I don't know even know where they would build up the time. And especially Spencer, if you see the strength of Visma on yesterday's stage, you know, how much damage they were doing on the last climb and how very few people could stay with that. I mean, when P. Gonzalez pulled off or was there was seven riders, eight riders left maximum? and three of them were hanging on for like dear life.

I think Vizma can control this stage perfectly. There's not that much. It's the day after a rest day, okay, but you know, you don't all of a sudden magically get a lot of new energy after the rest day. So there's not many guys anymore who can go and breakaways that are dangerous. That's the only way. Jonas Wingergaard doesn't win the stage if there's a breakaway and Visma decides voluntarily to let it go and not kill. And they can do that.

I mean, they don't have to win the stage, you know? I mean, that would be the downside that you bet on Jonas. The odds are not out yet. I'll probably bet on Jonas. But you know what, Spencer? I mean, if you look, right, I mean, if there's a breakaway, first of all, the amount of, I mean, it's five climbs. It's going to be fast for the breakaway and for the peloton. The difference here is that for this stage, Visma is not going to get any more help now.

Until now, they still have got the help from Bahrain, right? Because until yesterday, Alali was still in pink. That's done now. Bahrain is not going to pull anymore now. I mean, unless they're stupid, but I don't think so. That would be something else to watch. Or whatever. I mean, if we see that, there might have been an agreement saying, hey, you know what?

We let you have have this, this pink jersey for nine days, but you keep helping us. It makes no sense. But so the thing is with a climb like this at the end, the hardest climb of the whole stage, 11.7 kilometers at 8%. The breakaway needs to have three, more than three minutes at the bottom of the climb. Maybe four or five. Yeah, depending on who's there, right? because 8% average man that's not an easy climb you know that's the i mean how long is this this climb

is going to be a 40 minute long climb yeah yeah it's it's a lot yeah so yeah three four minutes and then think how long have they've been racing by the time they get to the bottom exactly yeah two and a half hours um what's the elevation of the stage well it's it's a lot of elevation it's 3,000 meters, but the final climb is basically two-thirds of that. Must be the last, it must be 900 meters, 900 meters elevation, no?

If it's 11 kilometers at 8%. What finishes at 1645, and it starts, yeah, around 400. So just a little bit more than, here I have like a, Yeah. But anyway, probably more than 11.7 kilometers then. I guess, yeah, they're not counting like the roll into it.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. If you have 11.7 kilometers, 8%, that's probably like, I mean, 900 meters of elevation. That's why the metric system is great. So I'm just going to say the last 30K of the stage, they gain. The only system, Spencer, the only system, you guys with your miles and your feet and this and that, it's such a mess. I mean, the Nate Bargatzi sketch. We have meters, kilometers, kilograms, grams. You know, super simple. Too confusing. I mean, how many meters aren't a kilometer?

No one knows. 1,000. It's how many? Okay, here's here's here's a question for you, sir. So you count in miles, right? A mile. Yeah. What's the next, what's the next smaller unit of measurement?

Is it yards? Yeah. Yeah, it would be a yard, I guess. How many yards are in one mile? Oh, my God. I don't even think I know. If you don't know that answer, then your system is fucked. Well, I mean, what, there's 52, 5,280 feet in a mile,

and then there's something like three feet in a yard, something like that? And in which universe does that make sense, this kind of way of measuring? I will say in our defense, there's 1,160 yards in a mile. we didn't come up with this. This is the British. And then they switch on us. What the heck. So in the last 30K of the stage,

they gained basically 1,500 meters. So you're going to see time starting to come back. So the first 90K of the stage is 1,500 meter of elevation, which is a lot. But they're going to cover that in. you know what two and a half hours probably and you're like how much time could you possibly have built up over that I think Jonas Vindegarde as well I think Jonas wins and I think he

as you said yesterday he just is the class is higher he's just at a higher class than the rest of these guys yeah different different league nothing they can do on a stage like tomorrow tomorrow is the perfect stage for him I don't think it's going to be a breakaway you have anything else Johan for tomorrow's stage? For Tuesday stage. Tomorrow we have a rest day, right? Yeah, tomorrow.

Who knows when someone's listening to this? Yeah, Tuesday's stage. Tuesday before the last week of the year to tell. Are you going to have a ride? Are you going to ride on a rest day? Well, here's a beautiful thing about tomorrow Monday in the U.S. is holiday, so the kids are home. So not really a day off at all.

Oh, okay. So I need to push it tomorrow. I'm Spencer, I don't want to sound too negative, but man, I'm I'm taking advantage in our, in our, in our challenge, you know, on our yearly, or yearly miles battle, kilometer battle. I'm even wondering if I, I might give up riding. But that's, that's another, that's a subplot for a, for a non-grand tour day. Like, is riding the dumbest thing ever?

Like, we go out, oh, don't worry, hon, I could get hit by a car and die. I'm like, what are we doing? This is stupid. Should we not be riding our bikes? Yeah, I rode today and I'm going to ride tomorrow. So I hope you do the thing. How far are you going to go tomorrow? Not so.

I mean, maybe like 90K, 90K, probably. Nice. Yeah. All right. Well, Johan, we'll be back on Tuesday to break down. Probably a straightforward mountain stage. But as I said, does your tie? And you never know what's going to happen.

So we'll see how it plays out. All right, talk to you later. Like the Italians would say, We will see. We will see.