THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia 2025 Stage 1 & GC Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: May 7, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down the course, contenders, and likely outcomes for both the overall classification of the Giro d'Italia and its opening stage, which kicks off this coming Friday. They discuss what to expect in the likely GC showdown between Primož Roglič and Juan Ayuso, and the stage win battles between Wout van Aert and Mads Pedersen, while diving into how the race will play out and who presents the best betting value.

So if you had to pick a podium, someone to finish on the podium slash wild card winner, would it be Egan Bernal? I'm doubting between Bernal and Nick Alanda. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johann Bernal and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource.

Host and guest may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. financial advice, please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Berniel and we are predicting the 2025 and previewing Giro d'Italia.

We will go through a light preview of the stages and then pick the winner for stage one. And then we'll reveal our picks for the overall GC, a little bit of an unusual Giro d'Italia because it starts in Albania across the sea. The first three stages are there. We go take a, I guess, take a plane, a ferry. I'll be curious to see how to get your thoughts on how that's going to work. They go to mainland Italy, and then they kind of work their way north for a three week raise. But with the third week being in the mountains in the

north of the country, a lot of climbing, but heavily weighted towards that third week. And then they are doing the finish in Rome, which they've done for the last few years. Just a quick breakdown. There's seven stages. I designated as mountain stages with three summit finishes, seven hilly stages with 38 gravel kilometers in, uh, in Tuscany around Siena, I believe kind of a, yeah, retread of Charter Bianchi, five flat stages, two individual time trials, totaling at 42.3 total kilometers.

But before we, before we get into who's going to win this entire race, Johan, let's just talk about stage one really quick. This year in the last few years, it's this, it's pretty exciting what they do with these foreign starts. A lot of foreign starts are soft, but this kind of reminds me of Hungary, where we have a punchy first stage the Friday stage and then Saturday is a time trial. So we're like getting right into it. But the first stage has a second category climb in the middle of it, 13k long at 5.2%.

And then you go into town, Tirani, we all know these towns. We know and love them, but it's finishes on it's two climbs. So it's seven K long, 5% average roughly. It's the same climb. They do it twice. It's a circuit. Probably it looks like a fast downhill right into the second edition of that climb. Second pass of that climb downhill right into the finish. So it's kind of designated as a sprint stage, but it's gonna be really, really tricky. You have to be a technically adept rider to win that and then you might have to out sprint someone, but it's not necessarily

gonna be a sprint. And the odds, I think the odds are very unusual. This is on Unibet in Europe. So Mads Pedersen's the favorite at plus 250. Kaden Groves, sprinter plus 500. Wout Van Aert plus 500. Paul Marnier plus 1000. Olaf Coy plus 1100. Sam Bennett plus 2500. Filippo Fiorelli plus 3300. Gorean, Dorian Godin plus 3300.

Tom Peacock plus 3300. Corbin Strong plus 3300. The odds make it read as though it's a sprint stage, but I'm not so sure, Johan, how do you think this first stage is going to play out? Yeah, I'm surprised that the, the, the, the bookmakers think so sure that it's, it's going to be a sprint stage. It might be, uh, especially also because it's the first stage and everybody comes in fresh. Um, but you know, it's a short, I mean the short stage, 160k, 3 climbs. I'm going to go not for a bunchprint stage and I will pick Tom Pitcock to the Intimoro

stage. Of course, he won't have any trouble with the climbs. And I think that with the downhill, it's to be seen if it's a technical downhill, but anything which is downhill favors Tom Pitcock technically. And also he's fast. So I could foresee a group, a little group, either he can come in by himself or,

especially the odds, I mean, what is it? Plus 3,200? Plus 3,300. Okay. Yeah. Tom Pickock. Yeah. Yeah. That's why, that's why I think he's, he's a good choice for tomorrow.

I mean, it's, it's a gamble, but I'm not sure it's going to be a bunch of Prince Spencer. I'm not so sure either. I love that pick actually. I didn't even look down far enough when I was glancing at this to see him. I was like, I wonder if Tom Pickock's a DNF for this race plus 3,300 for Pickock on a stage like this. That's a very good price. I'm going to go wild. Venard plus 500. I mean I said it so it won't happen. He will not win now, but this is a pretty good stage for wild. Venard. I mean,

Mads Pedersen, the favorite at plus two 50 doesn't really feel like a Mads Pedersen stage to me, not saying he can't win, but it's finishing on the downhill. You get, it just opens up like a wealth of possibilities that Tom Pitcock or even while Vinart could benefit from same thing with Caden groves. Like as Caden groves realistically going to hold on in those two climbs, I'd imagine if, if not, if Q Q 36.5 doesn't have the firepower to do it, you'd imagine Visma is going to be pressing the issue pretty hard on those climbs. Well, that depends. That depends. I mean, Visma,

I think is in limbo a little bit because do they really want to make it hard to drop all the sprinters and with that their sprinter Olaf Koi, or, or do they want to make it, do they want to wait and see if Koi makes it okay? And then if not, then Van Aert can sprint, right? I think it's going to have to come from teams like Q36.5 and they have nothing else to do in this race than just go for stage wins and tomorrow is their first opportunity. Um, yeah, I mean, I like, I like Bitcoq, uh, Bitcoq's chances for tomorrow. I'm going to go bet on him.

I'm shocked that he's at this price. I think that's a very good pick. I mean, is there, he, he was just a wild card. I just looked at and thought of, and I know this is not going to be like the team's plan, but like, what about someone like Isaac del Toro? Like, is it possible that he gets away on the time or descent? I don't know. I mean, it's it's not hard. I mean, it's he can't get away, but, you know, then to keep it.

There's still there's always going to be teams with somebody who thinks that they can win the stage to try to chase it down. But hey, I think it's not set in stone tomorrow what the scenario will be. Friday, sorry. And there will be attacks on that climb. The question about Del Toro is what his duty is going to be. I think he will have to work for Ayuso to try to keep him in position. Uh, UAE will probably try to set the pace, uh, not to, not to make a difference in the Peloton, but just to stay out of trouble. Um, so, um, so I think that Toro's choices,

chances for tomorrow are probably not, uh, not great Friday. Sorry, Friday. I keep getting, yeah. In theory, we're using this thing. The day before the race, we're early this year. And then we should, yeah, we should warn everyone. The race starts on Friday on max in the U S if you have max, it's a great service. Highly recommend it. But then it's, it's on Friday. And then Monday is a rest day,

just three days into the race because they're going to go back to Italy. Race picks up on Tuesday. I assume they fly back. We're talking about this. I think it's a ferry. Okay. All right. So that's, so the staff doesn't have to drive the cars like around. You know, they have to, they have to bring all the vehicles back. So I think the whole caravan goes on the ferry. Okay. That's not too bad.

So let's take a quick break for ads and then we will talk about the GC and who we think is going to win this thing overall. All right, Johan, I'll read the odds for the overall. And then we, I mean, the cliff notes of this race are a couple summit finishes, seven mountain stages backloaded into the third week, two shortish time trials. The first happening just on stage two, which is quite, quite exciting, not holding anything back there, but the odds is on Unibet in Europe, similar odds on other books in the US.

Primoz Roglic is the favorite plus 120. Why don't you so plus 210? This means by the way, if you bet a hundred US. Primoz Roglic is the favorite, plus 120. Wanojuso, plus 210. This means, by the way, if you bet $100 on Primoz Roglic, you would get $120 of profit if he wins for a total payout of 220. Wanojuso, plus 210. Adam Yates, plus 700. Derek G., plus 2,000.

Mika Landa, plus 2,000. Michael Storer, plus 2,000. Antonio Tibiri, plus 2,000. Tyman Arnsbenn, plus 3,300. Egan Bernal, plus 3, Michael store plus 2000, Antonio Tiberi plus 2000 time in Arn's been in plus 2 3, 300 Egan Bernal plus 3, 300 Tom Pickock plus 3, 300. I don't know about that. Richard Carapaz plus 4,000 and then Jay Henley plus 4,000. And the notable thing about that, the Egan Bernal, Richard Carapaz and Jay Henley have all won this race recently and they're all below plus 3,300. So that is, that is crazy. It's quite, quite unusual. Um,

perhaps it's correct, but just off the top, who is your favorite to win this race? Yeah. I think the fact that these guys are, uh, have these numbers, it's, it's, it's logical. Uh, in Bernal's case,'s case, we all know where he comes back from. He's still trying to find his level. And if he can find that level, then the question is, is it good enough to win so many years later in today's Peloton, right? Carapaz hasn't shown much this year.

And Jay Hindley is for sure at the service of Primoz Roglic. So I'm gonna pick Primoz Roglic to win. He's an executor. He's a calculator. And this race fits him perfectly. Plus he has a very strong team. So Primoz Roglic for the win for me. That's a very good pick. Just full disclosure. I've actually put money on Primoz Roglic about a month ago. He's 30 that here. Here's the downsides. He's 35 years old.

He has a history of crashing, um, maybe slight inconsistency has picked up in recent years. I guess he was inconsistent here in 2019, but just now here's the pro case. This is crazy by the way. So the last seven grand tours he's completed, he's won five of them and finished on the podium of all of them. And then you might say, well, he crashes a lot. I looked this up. It's kind of like a largely confined to the tour though. Like that's where DNFs are happening in non tour de France grand tours.

This isn't in his entire career. He's only failed to finish a single one. Andy won this race the last time he did it in 2023. So pretty good case for Pimra Swaglash. Andy has a very strong Red Bull Bora team. Having said all that, I'm going to go and this is like not what I'm uncomfortable even putting this on record, but I do think Juan Agusso, 22 years old, he's had his wobbles in the last few years, but he's looked very good to me this year.

Um, I know he just got beat by a Primoz at Catalonia, but I think probably frankly, this is a two man race and the odds reflect that I would pick one of you. So a plus two 10, if you've picked Primoz and he's the only rider I could really see challenging a healthy Primoz Roglic. Just having the time trial and climbing ability and explosiveness. Because Primoz, the problem is he's going to be racking up time bonuses at this race along the way. Yeah, yeah, I agree. You saw the other big favorite.

He's been in great shape this year already. He won two one day races, one in France, then he won La Guelia, then he won Tirreno. And then he got second in Catalonia. I think the only race he's lost is to Primoz Roglic. Yeah. And he lost it on the last day, by the way. Didn't seem to have a great day in Barcelona and on the circuit of Monjuic, but you know, he has obviously the qualities. Has a very strong team around him, you know, Adam Yates, Isaac del Toro, Brandon Menelti, Rafael Micah, Jay Vine.

I mean, that's a scary setup. I mean, and then there's probably two other guys for the flats. You know, if you look at Red Bull Bora, they have Primoz Roglic, they have Dani Martinez who finished second last year in the Giro, they have Jay Hindley who won the Giro, they have Giulio Pelizzari who's been very, very strong this year and the good old and loyal Jan Tratnik, the lieutenant of Primoz Roglic,

to name these five really strong riders. So if you look at both teams, I think they work each other. I just think that Primoz has more consistency, more experience. Juan Ayuso has finished once third in a Grand Tour in his first year as a 19 year old. Then I think he finished fourth or fifth in another Vuelta, but he crashed. So he does not have the experience yet. In his favor, of course, he's young. He's in great shape this season.

And this is his main, main, main goal of the season. Don't know if he's going to do the Vuelta afterwards probably. But you know, he's the leader, at least in his mind, he's the leader of Team UAE, maybe Adam Yates. But I think Adam Yates is professional enough and experienced enough to know that Ayuso is probably a bit stronger for the moment. So, yeah, I mean, I think there's a case in favor and against both candidates, but I'm going to go for the consistency, the experience and the meticulous execution of Primoz Roglic over Juan Ayuso. There's going to come a point where Ayuso is going to overtz Roglic over Juan Ayuso. You know, ultimate, I mean, there's going to come a point

where Ayuso is going to overtake Roglic. I don't know if it's this year already. The thing about Roglic that I feel like people overlook, he wins a lot, like a lot. Like if you add up the top 20 favorites of this Euro, Primoz Roglic has more career Grand Tour wins than the rest of them combined. And that's counting Egan Bernal, Richard Carapaz and Jay Hindley. You know, Bernal has two of them.

So just, he just wins. It's, it's not very scientific analysis, but, um, it's a certain point in cycling. It's good to be able to win races. And this is also where it gets more interesting. So if you think of Roglic and Aiso as the two favorites, let's say they're healthy. That's going to hurt like Adam Yates, his ability to compete for the win. And I don't know. Adam Yates hasn't been showing us amazing form this year. I don't, I think he might just be here in a support role unless you really pull

something out of that. And also Spencer, you know, speaking about Adam Yates, Adam Yates is a great rider, of course, but he's never been in contention to win a grand tour. He's finished third in the Tour de France at the service of Pogacar. But other than that, he's never been up there to win actually, right? His brother Simon won the Vuelta long time ago already. We don't even speak about him anymore. But he's in this race, isn't he?

He's in this race and we don't even think about him anymore. That's in this race, isn't he? He's in this race and we don't even think about him. I'm actually going to add him to, because I have a list here of other favorites and to my surprise, Simon Yates is not even on this. It's crazy. And I mean, here's what's had him yet. You're right. You're right. That's a very good point. He's never really threatened to win a grand tour. You got fourth in his first tour to France ever. And he only bettered that one time,

which was in 2023, he got third. Yeah. So that's another good data point. Has this person challenged to win a grand tour before in their life? And not many of these top favorites have. There's a big difference, Spencer, a podium candidate and, and getting on the podium, barely, you know, like, listen, getting on the podium of a ground tour, it's a huge accomplishment. Don't, don't get me wrong, right? That you have to be a very good writer to be on the podium of a ground tour. But between that and winning or, or challenging to win,

it's a big difference still. So just to, so let, those are our two favorites. I think probably two man race, if they're healthy, I mean, even on Roglic, so like Danny Martinez, you might say has a great chance, Jay Hindley, it just in theory, but if Roglic is riding well, like those guys are, they're not going to be a challenge because they're going to be working for Primo. So a lot of these top favorites behind them are locked up on

their team. So if these two perform well, they're going to cancel out a lot of people that could finish on the podium. But if those two don't win, who's your wild card to win? And then who do you think is a good chance to finish on the podium? If those two don't win is because something's going to happen to them, uh, either completely out of shape, which is very unlikely or, or something other, uh, something else happens. I have a list here of other favorites, right?

And it's a stretch, but you know, I have Mikel Landa who is obviously going to be the leader of Sudak quickstep. Uh, has he ever been close to winning a grand tour? No, that's crazy that he's never threatened to win a grand tour. I can't believe that. Um, I mean, I would say one, one year, I remember one year, I don't remember which year it was in the Giro. He was, he was on Astana. 2015, I believe. Right.

And I think, I think that it's, it's, it's the Giro that Gontador won. He was amazing there. Uh, wrote very strong. This was, this is 10 years ago. Let's not forget. It's a decade ago, man. I feel like that just happened. Wow. Yeah. Uh, then you have Richard Carapaz. He's on my list of other favorites. Is he, I mean, he's won the Giro already and he's been second in the Giro and he's been third in the tour. He's been podium in the Vuelta. Is this still the Richard Carapaz that we have, that we have seen in the past?

I don't think so. I think, I think that ship has sailed. Then I have Antonio Tiberi. Never been in a position. He was third, no, last year or was he? No, no. Fifth, fifth, fifth. I looked that up. Yeah. That was your Garay Thomas and Ben O'Connor and T-Berry. Anyways, a good rider.

Also never been in a position to win a Grand Tour. Not yet. Egan Bernal, of course, we have to talk about him. He won the tour and he won the Giro. So it would be very disrespectful to not name him as an underdog favorite. The question is how good is Egan Bernal, right? What we've seen until now is not supporting the fact that he's a candidate to win if something else happens with these other two favorites. Same goes for, I mean, that's a stretch already.

You have Taim and Aronsman. That's a top five candidate at most, if everything goes well, not even a podium candidate. There are G. You could say, okay, could be a podium candidate. We haven't seen that yet in a Grand Tour, yeah? He did a great Tour of France last year. Um, but I think eight or nine.

That's not even, that's not close to podium in a Grand Tour. Uh, we have Giulio Ciccone just comes off fresh off a second place in the edge, uh, was riding really well in Tour of the Alps, but is that, is that level good enough to be a podium candidate? really well in Tour of the Alps, but is that level good enough to be a podium candidate? Michael Sturrer was very, very dominant in Tour of the Alps, but we've never seen him perform at the highest level in a Grand Tour for GC. So, I mean, there's a list of guys, but I can't see any of those guys win it, honestly. Yeah, I think the first episode of Out outcomes we ever did was for the jury to tell

you 2022. And I'm having flashbacks of shy Henley winning that out of nowhere. Was that the year? Was that 2022? I think that was. Um, but I, I agree with you, um, getting that out of the way, but my worst case scenario that one of these guys now wins it. I agree with you. The one I would quibble with though, and maybe I'm biased Derek G at plus 2000. The only pushback I would provide there is Spencer, but he just started racing GC last year. Everyone else you mentioned has a long,

we have big data set and you're like, you usually don't like just become a great GC rider after not being a great GC rider. Andy, it just has a lot of power. Like if I'm just going on like, well, there's a lot of climbs at this race. You have to be good at sustained power and you can time trial. Well, that would be a Derek G. Yeah, for sure. That would be my wild card. Probably. Yeah. Wild card. Yeah. I would say candidate for top five at most, uh, Spencer, not podium. Uh,

there's always somebody who gets on the podium that sometimes nobody expects him. Right. Uh, in the case of Derek G, he's a great writer. He can climb. He can time trial. There's not enough time trial kilometers in this race to really put an advantage on a guy like that. Plus, I do think that Primoz and Ayuso are equal or better time trialists than Derek G. And then Derek G doesn't have the team to support him as a leader, as a candidate for

a win, to win a ground tour. The Israel Premier Tech don't have the depth in team support. Here's what's interesting too. Derrick G, Mika Landa both plus 2000 to win. Derrick G plus 650 to podium. Mika Landa plus 300 to podium. That's quite interesting because I was just about to say, podium is that's quite interesting because I was just about to say, should we lock me Kalanda in as the podium, the non-primos I use a podium contender. This feels like we're hurtling towards a Mica land a third place at this race. Yeah. Well, I also, I mean, I will have to go back. I haven't really checked the results of Michael London,

but have we seen enough from Michael London? Anyway, listen, he's an experienced writer. He knows how to prepare. Even if we haven't seen enough of Michael London, he's been pretty good this year though. Yeah. Nothing gets fixed out really. Well, that's his genius, right? He's always hiding in plain sight. Well, I mean, what did he get at the tour last year? Did he get fourth at the tour? Yeah. Um, because he didn't have a great vault though,

but he gets seventh at Torino and you'd say, well, that's a bad result. It's 11th at Strato Bianchi. Pretty good result. It's seventh at Torino. You'd say, well, that's not good. That was a weird race with a time trial and one tiny climb and then fourth at Catalonia, which is not a terrible result. So it's he's like in the Enric Moss zone, I would say. Yeah. Did he do the, did he do the boss country? No, it's kind of a light schedule.

Yeah. Okay. Okay. And then, I mean, there's actually tough trying to pick this third podium spot because the other one, the other two I would actually really flag Michael store, who just went tour of the Alps. He's plus 2000 to win plus 300 podium. And then J vine plus 5,000 to win plus 1200 to podium. And I think I used to winning is not,

or getting second is not totally disqualifying for J vine the way people ride these days where they don't fully set up. Yeah. I mean, I'll be more tempted to think about Egan Bernal then for the podium. Um, he does have the experience. Um, you know, he's super talented. We all know that, um, I could see him on the podium rather than any of those other guys. I accept Michael, Michael, Michael Lambda.

And he would ride specifically for the podium. I mean, that would be a big result. You know, and especially since the Giro, you know, since the course of the Giro is really heavy on mountains in the last week, but now as a typical three, three week stage racer, recovers really well, is strong in the last week. Whereas others sometimes tend to fade away after half after mid race. And this thing has like 53,000 meters of climbing and last year's had 45,000, I believe. So, um, hard, hard. And then interestingly, not a lot of days over 200 kilometers. So I'm looking at three days over 200 K.

So that means a lot of like climbing packed into short ish mountain stages, which yeah, I mean, if you look, I've, I've made some notes here. Stage 16 is a stage of more than 5,000 meters. Then stage 17 has the more Tirolo, um, not, not finished on the more Tirolo, but we all know how hard the Mortirolo is. And then stage 20 is a very hard stage with Sestriere and Col de Finestre. The question is, are they going to be able to ride over the Col de Finestre?

The reports are that there's still snow there right now. Um, we know of course, the Finestre from famously Chris from turning around the Giro, uh, I don't know, it was a 2016 or 17. That was a 18, right? 18. Yeah. Because that's the last race Chris from one, I believe. Wow. Yeah. Uh, but anyway, it's a super hard climb. You know, it's almost 20 kilometers. The last 10 kilometers are gravel. Super, super hard climb. You're putting that in the second last stage. It could turn around everything. Now, you know, hopefully they can do it. I mean, I hope, I hope, uh, I mean, they're, they're, they're pretty inventive in, in Italy. You know, they, uh, sometimes they've managed to get the snow, uh, removed on the last moment.

Um, so I hope we can see the quality finessere on the second last day and then hopefully it's still close and we, we, we will find out there who's going to win the Giro. I mean, we do have three weeks, but yeah, it snowed like three feet in the mountains around my house yesterday. So winter is still around the United States. Similar elevation though. I did. I do feel like people forget. They're like spring is here. The Giro is here. It's like, the mountains is still could snow a lot, but they do have quite a bit of time to hope that clears up.

Yeah. And usually they have a, they always have an alternative, uh, the Giro. And as, as usual Spencer, it's the Giro. We will not know until the day before there's going to be panic chaos at the start line. We will know the day of that's, you know, that's, that's the Italians and they will find a way out and a solution. And, and I'm sure it's going to be a good one. And we will not see half the stages on TV because we'll lose coverage in the mountains. That's for sure. That's the downside of, uh, of the Giro.

Um, so if you had to pick a podium, someone to finish on the podium slash wild card winner, would it be Egan Bernal? I'm doubting between Bernal and Mikel Landa. Okay, I'll go for Bernal then. Okay, Mikel Landa plus 2000, plus 300. It's priced in, people know his move. Yeah. He's going for a third.

The crazy thing about Landa is, I don't say, I think it's gonna sound like I'm insulting them, but he's the type of writer that if both Roglic and I used to crashed out, like he's so coded to race for the podium. I don't even know if he would win. Like he will finish behind someone, but he will probably finish on the podium. And then what, what do you think about store? Like, is that not going to translate to And then what do you think about store? Like, is that not going to translate to zero?

It's always tricky to pick somebody who has, who has shown extreme form. He was very strong in tour of the Alps. Let's also say the, okay, you have to consider the competition, right? But he was, he was strong. He was riding very strong in the climbs. Never seen something from him in the Grand Tours for GC. Obviously there's going to come a day where he will do it,

but between thinking like that and then saying he can win the Giro, no, I don't see that happening. It is surprising. I'm now flipping through examples in my head, but it's surprising how few riders kind of the riders that are good at grand tours are the riders that are good at grand tour. You like rarely see one week stage racers then transition successfully to the grand tours later in their career.

It's also very, very difficult very difficult to maintain that peak form. Let's say, you know, tour of the Alps is what is two weeks ago. So two weeks ago. So you're thinking about this is so that's a six, a six week period, right? It's one and a half months to be on top on top form where if you look, for example, at Ayuso and Primos to name the two other favorites, you form, where if you look, for example, at Ayuso and Primos, to name the two other favorites, you know, they speak to this, they haven't raced, they've meticulously prepared, and they're going to come into the start of the Giro in top form,

without having, I mean, and everything was programmed in their training. So they didn't, they didn't spend, you know, useless energy in, in trying to win a race because, uh, stir, for example, to just give one example, he had to do two crazy rides, uh, like digging really deep in his, in his energy reserves to, to win that race. Um, one, one was the, he had to, he had to, you know, ride 40 kilometers on his own to pursuit of Arendtman. And then the day after he rode 40 kilometers on his own to drop Arendtman. That's a lot of energy.

And that's two weeks ago. So if we add another week and we go to the last week of the Giro, that's five weeks. To keep that shape for such a long time, it's difficult. Yeah. No, that does seem like it stretches the imagination. And then on J vine, you're like, wow, you did great at Rome and the same problem you just described.

And also he got dropped by Lens Lorenzo Fortunato on the queen stage. So if you just really started to dig into that performance, it's like, how com am I that confident in J vine before we take off? I have two questions for you. Mountain's classification. This is stuck out to me. It's kind of weird. The, the favorite George Steinhauser plus 900 Richard Carapaz plus, plus 1200 that that could happen. Michael store plus 1400 and then Wout van Hart plus 1600 below Wout van Hart, Primoz Roglic plus 1800. So that's kind of low for Primoz. I usually mean what we've seen lately in grand tours is that the mountain classification is of no interest for the GC guys. And there's usually somebody who goes in and breakaways,

guys. And that's usually somebody who goes and breakaways, gets enough points together and then tries to hang on in the... Or try to go and breakaways in the big mountain stages and score points on the first and the second climb and then gets dropped on the last climb. That's the scenario typically, except for example, last year, I mean, we got, almost all the jerseys in the Giro, I think. But yeah, that's a difficult one, man. The mountains, the mountains classification plus is the Giro. It's not like the tour, you know, the tour, if you win the problem of the jersey at the tour, that's kind of a prestige. Mountains jersey in Giro and Vuelta, you know, nobody, nobody really knows. It's nice to be on the podium every day for the sponsors,

but it's not like a prestigious. The points jersey is different. If you win the points classification in the Giro, the Malamalia, Ciclamino, and then the green jersey and the Vuelta, that's kind of more of a trophy, uh, to be, to take it, to take home than the mountains classification, I would say. Yeah. I know that you mentioned it. So 2022 won by Ken Bowman, 2023,

T T Bob Pinot Derek G second actually. And then 2024 was with Tadde because there's no way he could have lost it, but you're right. It is kind of a wild card. Usually that Carapaz one kind of stuck out. I mean, even store, I wonder if store you're right. This is tough, but Carapaz is shown to said he will buckle in for a KOM fight, but yeah, for the Giro d'Italia, maybe not. Um, I don't know the Michael store one kind of interesting actually, but

still good when the store could win the KOM. Yeah. Cause that's big for him. And for the team. Yeah. Yeah. It is. It's definitely cause they're a wild card in buy, right? They didn't. Yeah. Yeah. Oh yeah. Wild card. Yeah. Wild card slash sponsor. I would say. Now those are two separate departments. And then last question for you, points classification. slash sponsor, I would say. Now those are two separate departments.

And then last question for you points classification. This is sneaky going to be maybe the most interesting part of this race. Mads Pedersen, the favorite plus one 20, wow. Vinart plus 400. It's a little disrespectful. I feel like, and then Caden Rose plus four 50 all of coy plus 700. I would go with the underdog. Vinart there. I put 200. Me too. Me too. Uh would go with the underdog. Van aren't there at plus 400. Me too. Me too. Uh, because of the odds, listen, Peterson deserves respect.

You know, he's a, he's a great writer. He, he will perform. Um, he knows how to race for these classifications. He's one in the Vuelta already, I guess. Uh, the points, classifications. I mean, yeah. Van Aert has won it in the, in the tour. He did. Yeah. He did win the green Jersey in the tour. No. And then he would have won the green Jersey. He would have won the boys Jersey and the Vuelta and the mountain Jersey.

Uh, yeah, I think, I think I would, I would probably choose Van Aert over over Patterson because he comes into form. Uh, he's finished his classic season, Peterson, by the way, the same. He also, I mean, had a great performance in the classics. Uh, but I have the impression that Peterson was at his peak, uh, in the, in the classics and the, and art still needs to reach his peak. Um, I'm going to keep picking forert over Pedersen for the points jersey. Yeah. And I'm definitely not saying that I think Pedersen will win stages here,

potentially even more stages than Van Aert, but Van Aert when he's fit, he can climb so well. I think, I think why the odds are like this Spencer is probably because, you know, obviously they have identified these two guys as fast and very complete riders who will get through the stages. I think they choose Pedersen over Van Aert because they assume that Van Aert will in some sprint stages be at the service of Olaf Koi and Pedersen will be sprinting for himself. That's probably why the difference in the adults. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good point. I'm still picking Van. I feel low for, for him. Um, and then just to recap,

Yohan thinks Primoz I'm going to want to use. So for the overall stage one, Tom pitcock plus three, 300, that's the pick of the show. If you take one thing away from the show, like do that. Um, I well, then our plus 500 to win Mika Atlanta. If I'm picking a podium contender plus 300, Johan has Egan Minnault plus 500 and then definitely watch this opening weekend Friday, Saturday, Sunday on max in the U S like I said, it's going to be quite exciting with the lack of like pure sprint stages, but maybe sprint stages. I like that. But Johan, if you were going to give someone like they could watch inter stage 16, um, stage 16 is, is super hard,

but the most exciting stage in my opinion, if they, if they get over the quality finesse, there would be stage 20. Yeah, I agree. And that could decide the race. Yeah. So I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point.

I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. I think that's a good point. But the most exciting stage in my opinion, if they, if they get over the quality finesse, there would be stage 20. Yeah, I agree. And that could decide the race. Yeah. Second to last day of the race. Um, I mean, yeah, who knows? Primo's like, he doesn't like to run up. He doesn't run up scores.

He did oddly at the Volta last year. He won by a lot more than I remember, but traditionally he doesn't get big gaps. So it still could be tight gaps going into that final weekend, which is something we haven't really seen in recent grand tours. But anything else, Johan, before we take off? No, that's it. That's it for me. I'm looking forward to this battle between UAE and Red Bull Bora.

And we'll be back daily on Friday. We'll be recapping Friday's stage and then predicting the next stage during that episode. So we'll talk to everyone on Friday. Okay, speak soon. All right, bye.