THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia Stage 10 Analysis & Stage 11 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 20, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin discuss today's stage of the Giro d'Italia, which Lidl-Trek's Daan Hoole won over Ineos' Josh Tarling in a surprising upset. They break down how the changes in the GC... classification, including Primož Roglič taking back a chunk of his losses from Sunday's Stage 9, Juan Ayuso pulling closer to his teammate Isaac del Toro's race lead, and how their UAE team will approach their jersey defense in the coming days before previewing tomorrow's Stage 11, a tricky stage with multiple tough climbs, predicting who will win, how the action will play out, and which riders present the best betting value.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 You can hear in the tone of Ayuso that he's the one who wants to win, right? And I mean, obviously, it's normal. He's a leader. He is a champion. And he says, you know, if I have to feel bad about losing the Giro, then I would prefer to be to a teammate. But he wants the winner. He himself considers him the leader of UAE.
Starting point is 00:00:34 Everybody welcome back to The Move Plus. I'm Spence Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernil. We are talking Giordataglia. Stage 10 time trial, breaking that down as well as predicting the stage. Tomorrow, stage 11, we'll get Johan's take on who's going to win and how it's going to play out. But first, Johan, let's talk quickly about this time trial. Dan Hool. Hool. He'll tell me if I'm saying that wrong from Little Trek wins. Surprise winner. I think Little Trek has now won four out of the 10 stages that have happened so
Starting point is 00:01:01 far. So you'd say pretty good race for them. Josh Tarling in second, six seconds back, I guess seven, 6.9. I don't know. Do we round up on those? Ethan Hayter third, 9.9 seconds. So 10 seconds back, but below that, you kind of have to pan through these results to figure out what the heck happened in the GC, but I'll just, I'll sort the GC for everyone. So Primus Roglic, winner of the GC competition in this time trial.
Starting point is 00:01:27 Tymon Arnsmann, this is the top 11, top 11 in the GC after the race. Top 11 in the GC after the race, how they did in the time trial. Tymon Arnsmann finishes 13 seconds behind him. Wana Yusa, 19 seconds behind Roglic. Simon Yates, 28 seconds behind Roglic. And Tionu Tibiri, 38 seconds back. Brandon McNulty, won away. Adam Yates 28 seconds behind Roglic and Tionu Tibiri 38 seconds back. Brandon McNulty, 108. Adam Yates 112. Isaac del Toro the leader, 108. I wait, I've got to repeat here. Yeah, 108. Giulio Ciccone, 133. Richard Carapaz, 137. Igor Minal who crashed apparently 144 back. And this is how the top five stands. Isaac del Toro is still in the lead, but his teammate, Wana Yuso is really
Starting point is 00:02:08 closing in on him 25 seconds back. So he's really chopped that lead pretty much in half and Antonio Tiberi 101, Simon Yates 103, pretty dangerous right there. Primoz Roglic 118. So we're all back together pretty tight, like, but even between the Derek G is 12th and he's 237 back. So it's really a shockingly tight race actually after this time trial. But Johan, do you want to talk a little bit about Dan Hul? And then we'll get into the battle for the GC.
Starting point is 00:02:38 Yeah. Well, obviously surprise winner in this field, Spencer. I mean, he is a good time trialist. He's Dutch champion time trial. Uh, and he's a strong rider and we all know he's on good form. Um, I think we had some data, uh, from the beginning of the Giro where he was pulling at what 390, 480 watts. Yeah. Yeah. Sitting there on the stage three climb. Yeah. Um, so, you know, he's, he's, uh, he's in 400 watts. Yeah. Sitting there on the stage to recline.
Starting point is 00:03:06 Yeah. So, you know, he's, he's, uh, he's in good shape. Um, and of course we all know that the weather circumstances changed today, but, uh, he did beat Joshua Tarling who raised more or less in the same condition. So a great win for him. His first, I would say, real win in a professional race. He won the Dutch Championships time trial. But if you don't count that, it's his first real win.
Starting point is 00:03:39 I mean, what a win, a time trial in a Grand Tour. So, and yeah, as you say, Spencer, four stage wins for Little Trek already. I don't think they counted on this one, man. I don't think they counted on winning the time trial. So obviously he's the winner of the day. No doubt about that. And I mean, the other winner of the day, of course, is Primoz Roglic, who had another crash today in the recon of the time trial. Primoz, man, he needs to stay on his bike, you know, if he wants to win. I saw a little video, it was not a bad crash, it was in the rain, he slided, but you hit the deck, you know, you hit the deck and it's another impact on your body. Yeah, I mean, if you look at Primos's time trauma, it's just try to isolate his performance outside of the weather conditions and the way he regulated his effort, dosified his effort through this time trial.
Starting point is 00:04:53 I think the biggest takeaway, Spencer, for me is that, well, first of all, he's the best of the GC riders, but especially the last eight, nine kilometers, he finished unbelievably strong. I compare that to his big rival, Juan Ayuso, who started really fast and then finished not good at all. If you look at the time split with about eight K to go and And at the finish, I think I also loses more or less 30 seconds to, um, to Roglic if not more, I don't know. Maybe you have the exact number. 32 seconds from the final time check to the finish. And I believe that's 3.2 seconds a kilometer,
Starting point is 00:05:42 which is a lot of time to lose. Yeah. Well, we, I think we chose also point out that I use. So I think the weather conditions changed throughout the time trial and even, you could see riders that were riding at some point and then a half an hour later, it did change. Now we saw super wet roads. We saw certain riders with wet roads and then was dry again and then it was wet again. But I think this is pretty good for Roglic's morale. He takes time again on his big arrival in a time trial after having crashed two days ago and crashed this morning. And he's back in GC.
Starting point is 00:06:29 He is now 118 behind Del Toro. So he's almost within 50 seconds, 50 something seconds behind Ayuso. But yeah, it's a lot better than it looked yesterday. Yeah. If you just think of the gap as being to I use, so like I use as the finish line, he is 53 seconds behind him. It's not ideal, but it's not the worst thing in the world. As you said, the rain played a big issue and that's Dan Hool. Part of the reason he won cause he had dry ish roads the whole time.
Starting point is 00:07:02 That's also shows you we were predicting the stage yesterday. Time trials are very tough because it's one of the only times where the writers are competing on the same course, but at different times of the day, relative to each other. So if you really dug into the, the weather data here, maybe you would have an edge as a professional gambler and you could have seen this coming. But Roglic, it was dry ish. It was kind of raining, kind of misting, but he had a fairly clean run at it. And he got his crash out of the way.
Starting point is 00:07:29 The crash was out of the way in warmups. I got a joking, but maybe it helped him. He just needs to get that out to feel like he's alive. And then I used to, in del Toro, like he was quite wet. The roads were really, it looked like it was giving them problems too. Like I used to almost slipped out at a certain point. Del Toro looked a little bit, they call it in baseball, like big league syndrome, where you get to the big leagues and you're like, so overcome by the size of
Starting point is 00:07:53 the stadiums, you're not playing as well as you did in the minors. It just was the first time where I was like, oh yeah, he's like Del Toro is 21 years old, I'm trying to navigate these slippy roads on a time trial bike. He probably has not trained that much on throughout his life, but just to talk about the time checks really quick. So Josh Charlie goes through the first one. This is for the battle for the stage goes through the first time check fast, very fast. It looks like the race is over right there.
Starting point is 00:08:16 I'm thinking, well, he wins Dan Hull fifth. And then from T one to T two, the first, from the first time check to the second, Dan Hull just rips it. He's by far the fastest. He's almost 20 seconds faster than Josh Charlene through that section and then stays pretty quick coming in his third from the second time check to the finish. If we go to the GC contenders, it's almost the opposite. So Primoz Roglic starts well, faster than everybody. Then from T1 to T2, he loses time. He loses 20 seconds to Wanojuso. So right there I was falling along on the timesheet and I wasn't watching the race live. I had to rewatch it later, but just
Starting point is 00:08:58 looking at the data I was like, oh no, like Roglic is gonna lose this year. Oh, this thing's over. But then from T2 to the finish, Roglic blows everybody out of the water. Ayuso and Del Toro lose 32 and 37 seconds respectively. What do we make of that, Johan? Is that just them struggling with the roads? Did they go too fast in that middle section and then pay for that at the end? It's difficult, Spencer, because as we said, you know, the weather conditions change quite
Starting point is 00:09:26 a bit. And then on top of that, we don't really know. We could see the visible, you know, the road, the roads were wet for some, for some others know, but we don't know what happened with the wind. You know, so it could be that between the second point and the finish, the wind has changed, maybe. Fact is that, you know who else is, I said here, best of GC Roglic, Ayuso is second. Simon Yates did a good time for us, Spencer. He only lost 28 seconds to Roglic, but took quite some time on his rivals. He's in fourth in GC, just behind Tiberi and ahead of Roglic. So it's the first time we see Simon Yates this year in this kind of form. Um, he's the leader of, of, uh, of Visma. And, uh, it looks like he's in for a great Giro.
Starting point is 00:10:32 You know, if you're, if you're up there now after 10 stages, uh, and we know that the big mountains still have to come, but Simon Yates, that's his favorite terrain. So, uh, I'm pleasantly surprised by Simon Yates, I have to come, but Simon Yates, that's his favorite terrain. So, uh, I'm pleasantly surprised by Simon Yates. I have to say, yeah. And oddly much better than his twin Adam Yates, like significantly better. I gotta be honest. I did not expect a lot about some expect a lot from Simon Yates, from a G C perspective coming into this race.
Starting point is 00:11:00 And now he's fourth overall. He's only one Oh three back with like a Simon Yates ask third week coming up would make me a little nervous if I was you to have him lurking there. What going forward from here, like what's the Red Bull strategy? It's not, it's nice obviously to have one and two, but those one and two both want the one and then you have Simon needs at one of three Roglic at one 18. That would freak me out. I don't want Primoz Roglic a minute behind me. That sucks.
Starting point is 00:11:30 Then you have like the smorgasbord of these very good writers who have nothing to lose. Julio Chaconne 207 Richard Carapaz 210 Egan Bernal who had a bad day, but it makes him more of a liability now. Cause he's 233 back. Bernal doesn't care about the top 10 at the Giro. He's going to attack. Derek G, we know he can attack 237. Caruso 238, maybe he works for Tiberi and he's not a problem.
Starting point is 00:11:57 But then you have like Michael Stor 314, you have Einer Rubio 403. Like it's not a walk in the park for UAE from here. Like how do they handle this? No, no. I mean, obviously, you know, as you said, they're, they're one and two in GC. Um, you know, I think one of the special things also, not worth to mention Spencer, first and second in GC are also first and second in the white jersey competition. They're two really young riders still who are in first and second.
Starting point is 00:12:35 Um, yeah, I mean, I think, you know, they still have, they still have a strong position, you know, uh, they have a few other riders who are up there that they could potentially send in a breakaway. But I think they're going to just use their collective strength. I think it's clear already now that Adam Yates is not going to be anymore the co-leader now of the team. And Adam is definitely going to put him at the service of the team. He always does that. It's a matter now of how long can you preserve del Toro. I think he still can hang on for a few stages, which is great for the team, but also it's great for Ayuso also, because he doesn't need to deal with all the consequences of being the leader of the Grand Tour. But I saw an
Starting point is 00:13:27 interview of him and they did a press day yesterday. And I saw, you know, they were asking them, of course, about, you know, how does it feel to be first and second, is there no internal rivalry? And Ayuso's interview, it's good. It's professional. And he says, you know, we're here as a team. We want to win as a team with UAE. It's my dream to win the Giro. Of course, I would like to win. You can hear in the tone of Ayuso that he's the one who wants to win, right? And I mean, obviously it's normal. He's a leader, he is a champion. And he says, you know, if I have to feel bad about losing the Giro, then I would prefer
Starting point is 00:14:19 to be to a teammate. But he wants the one. He himself considers him the leader of UAE. So it's, I mean, it's not, it's not a bad thing for Ayuso right now, because Del Toro is discovering day by day. And in the meantime, Ayuso can kind of sit back and, you know, in second line and see what happens. Um, in the meantime, I also can kind of sit back and, and, you know, in second line and see what happens. Well, I think, tell me if I'm wrong about this, I think I use, so as nothing to worry about in that respect, because if he's not strong
Starting point is 00:14:54 enough to take 25 seconds on Isaac del Toro in the third week, he's not strong enough to hold off Simon Yates, Primas Roglic. Yeah. Care. Like those guys would overtake him anyway. I got, but I think I was going through these stages when you were talking. I think Del Toro could hold this until the second rest day, which is huge for you.
Starting point is 00:15:14 So to not have to do the after stage obligations, to not have to do the rest day obligations of being the leader. So it is a nice situation for them. I think he's probably a lot less concerned today than he was yesterday because he took a big chunk out of them. Sitting 25 seconds behind a writer that's not you and the lead who is on your team, isn't the worst situation in the world,
Starting point is 00:15:37 especially when they don't have a lot of experience, podium at Grand Tours. If we're sitting here right now, who would you, if you were director of UAE, who are you most concerned about of the writers behind you? No doubt Primoz Roglic. No doubt. Yeah. I mean, this is in some ways,
Starting point is 00:16:01 I was going to say it on yesterday's show, but I didn't get around to it. Primoz is like some hockey teams. They play better short, like, you know, they go down a man cause they go to the penalty box and you have to play with one less player than the other team. And he's like a team that plays better shorthanded. You know, when he has to defend a lead, think of moments where Pogacar has had to defend the lead or regatt, sorry, Rog, so that's racist of me. I got my Slovenians mixed up when Roglic has to defend the lead. It often doesn't go that well, but if you go back through the recent grand
Starting point is 00:16:32 tours, he's one, he's often not leading going into the second rest day. And it forces him to get out of this ultra conservative mode where he's just protecting, protecting, protecting before losing it. So I, I think this is not a terrible situation for him and losing the time on stage nine gave him better weather today. It didn't fully balance out, but he got a lot, probably got back a lot of time today
Starting point is 00:16:54 because of the drier roads from starting earlier in the day from losing time and losing spots on Sunday. So in some respects, he's gotten, already gotten a lot of that back that he lost on the gravel. Yeah. Yeah. And I think he got his confidence back too. You know, um, it's, uh, I mean, the time trial is definitely, you know, the race of truth. And, um, the, the, the fact that he did such a nice final is great for his morale. I think Roglic definitely believes that he can win this Giro.
Starting point is 00:17:36 He has the experience, he recovers well. By the way, Spencer, we have been've been, we have been, uh, criticizing the weakness of a bread bowl, uh, Bora. Um, I want to make a little side note about this. Um, I've discovered today that, uh, in the crash with Jay Hindley, they had five riders in the crash and they were all hurt. That's relevant information. Yeah. Yeah. It was Martinez in that group. Yeah, he was. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. I didn't know. And, and they were, there was,
Starting point is 00:18:11 there was a bunch of them that were hurt. Also Trapnik, for example, we haven't seen Trapnik in this race. He's, you know, he's such a, you know, he's a, you know, he's, he's a stud, you know, we haven't seen him. So, uh, yeah, they had, uh, they had a, they had a, they had a, they had a, you know, he's such a, you know, he's a, you know, he's, he's a stud, you know, we haven't seen him. So, uh, yeah, they had, uh, they had to deal with, uh, with a lot of injuries. Well, I did see Martinez on the start list or on the start line today thinking it is possible that they've been very sick as a team and just not said anything
Starting point is 00:18:42 about it, but the injuries would be some so that kind of makes sense to have, and I guess you don't want to be rolling that out because you don't want to advertise to the rest of the race that all. I mean, then you're, they're even more vulnerable than they're going to look around and say, Oh, they're hurting. We're going to attack, you know? Yeah. And in some ways this situation helps because now they don't have to, this is, this is going to be tough second week to because now they don't have to, this is going to be tough second week to control and they don't have to take responsibility for it.
Starting point is 00:19:10 Now any other thoughts on stage 10 before we move on to this tough second week? I mean, you know, it's, it was kind of, kind of to be expected, but you know, if you look at, um, he did crash also, obviously. So that was a bummer, but loses a lot of time, too much time. Carapaz. Also, not a great time trialist, loses the time. Ciccone. These three guys, in my opinion, are the big losers of today. And yeah, I mean, it's going to be super difficult for them to, you know, if you, if you do so much time and time trials, it's, it's, it's almost impossible to, to come back from that. You can, you know, you kind of have to start to attack with it from far away and do one spectacular ride.
Starting point is 00:20:05 You know, it's always, it's always possible, but, uh, um, yeah, I, it's, it's too much time, too much time. It's, uh, you know, one and a half, one 42 minutes. It's too much in 29, 28 kilometers. Yeah. And the problem is they're losing time in the time trial, but it's not like they're not knocking people down when they get to these climbs. If anything, they're like hoping just to hold serve on the hardest climbs. And then you can't be losing time in these time trials.
Starting point is 00:20:35 And you know, a guy who's really regular and is constantly there and we don't see him too much, but you know, it's Antonio Tiberi. He is, you know, silently there and he's in third position right now. The scary thing about Tiberi, if I was another director, so you might think like, you know, whoa, he's Enric Maas part two. You never see him, right? He places high, but he doesn't do anything.
Starting point is 00:21:00 He's 23 years old. And this is like really a second season riding GC, his second grand tour basically riding GC. So that means he could be improving. Like he's probably actively improving. So you kind of don't know what you're getting from him, which is a little scary if you're riding against them. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:21:19 Yeah. Now he see, you know, for the moment he's very regular. He's always there. Sometimes have to lose a little bit, not too much. Uh, and that's why he's in third. And you know, he's, uh, I, I, I remember last year he had a really, really good last week also. He was very strong the last week. Yeah. None of us will ever remember anything from that Jero except for Pagachar
Starting point is 00:21:42 cause he won half the stages, but I think stage 20, that was a really hard stage and Basana Del Grappo, he's fourth on that stage, you know, with Danny Martinez and that chase group behind Pogacar. So that's, he was 22 at the time, really impressive ride from a guy like him. Um, I think that's it. I think that covers it for the stage. Derek G I should say gained 15 seconds on Roggich today. Pretty good ride from him, even though he's lost some time early.
Starting point is 00:22:09 That's just another one of these, these bogeys sitting out there that I would not like if I was UAE, them being so close to the front. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Let's take a quick break for some ads and then we'll get into stage 11. All right, Johan stage 11 tomorrow. Kind of a hard stage,
Starting point is 00:22:30 harder than I thought. 186 kilometers. And if you're looking at the profile on YouTube, there's a hard climb. It's called the San Pellegrino. We don't think it's the real San Pellegrino climb, but it's very hard. One, one count one 14 K long at eight and a half percent or almost 9%. but it's very hard. One, one cat one 14 K long at 8.5% or almost 9%. Yeah, that's hard. It may actually be the real San Pellegrino. Unclear. We're experts. We know what we're talking. We know our Italian climbs so well.
Starting point is 00:22:54 There's a mo- I feel like half the climbs in the country are called the San Pellegrino. And then there's a cat two climb, which is 11 K long, 5%. It's not easy. And then really tricky one, 5.8K long climb, about 6-5K from the finish and it's 6% average. So I'd assume this is a breakaway. I'll read off the odds on bet 365 because it's available to most places and then we'll get your take on who's going to win, how this is going to play out. Tom Pickock is the favorite at plus 1000. I've never seen a favorite that low. Max Poole plus 1600. Matthias Wajcek plus 1600. Wout Poles plus 1800. Roman Barde plus 2000. Luke Platt plus 2000. Marco Frigo plus 2000. Juana
Starting point is 00:23:35 Uso plus 2200. Pelo Bilbao plus 2200. Jay Vine plus 2200. Wout Van Aert plus 2200. Primoz Roglic plus 2500. It goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. We actually have a few from deeper down in the list, but do you think this is breakaway or GC, Johan, and who's going to win? Yeah, I think it's breakaway. I think it's breakaway. It's a hard stage to control.
Starting point is 00:24:00 There's enough people now who are far enough behind to let them go in a break and be able to control it with the team. In stage 11, it's kind of late already now in the race to give the jersey away, especially because normally people who are going to be in the breakaway and could eventually get the jersey gifted, I would say, they're going to be good climbers. Otherwise, they won't be in the break, especially if they get over to San Pellegrino. So I can see breakaway probably not get rid of the jersey, but I think this is a breakaway stage. not get rid of the jersey, but I think this is a breakaway stage and we're now halfway
Starting point is 00:24:47 the race and I think it's time for some of the old foxes, the old experienced riders to come to the front. And that's why I'm going to pick Walt Poole from a breakaway to win the stage tomorrow. It's plus 2,500. That's a really good price for, I thought you were about to say the old fucks come to the front, but I, yeah, I like wild poles because this is a goofy stage. It's actually really cleverly drawn up because a rider that's going to win the stage is going to be really good at climbing, right? Because of these,
Starting point is 00:25:21 these, these hard climbs climb at the finish, but to get in the breakaway, there's no climbs to launch you. You're going to have, unless the client, unless the breakaway goes midway through the stage, which, which could happen. We could have another stage like stage seven, but it will probably be the break goes on the flat, which means there'll be a lot of riders who aren't good at climbing, but powerful making that break. And you'll have to be very good rider to make the break.
Starting point is 00:25:46 You'll have to be very smart, very powerful. That describes well poles. So there's a good chance I'll be there. I'm gonna go a little maybe more chalk. I'm gonna go Max Poole plus 1600. Max Poole had a good time trial, has been climbing well, had a poor gravel day. He's currently sitting, I believe, in 20th place about.
Starting point is 00:26:11 He is 21st. He is 417 back. It's actually not that far back. So you will have to control that gap, but he's not an immediate threat. And I mean, this is where like you're giving away the jersey. It's really complicated because like, what are you going to, you can't give the Jersey to Max pool, you know? And then it's like, Well, you could, you could, you could, but you know,
Starting point is 00:26:31 you can't give more than you can give a few minutes. You know, you have to keep it like one, one and a half minute maximum. Would you give it to Giulio Pelissari? Like it starts to get dicey fast on this. When you look at this. To Pelissari, I would not give it. No, he's strong. He's strong. And I could Louie Menchie isn't like that, but he's eight minutes back.
Starting point is 00:26:52 So then there's going to be a rider in the break who's higher up than Louie Menchie's. He's a very good climber. So that's where it gets complicated, but I'm going to go Max pool because he's good. And he's just lost some time on the gravel, which we don't have tomorrow. So that's my pick. That's a good choice. Good choice. Um, for my second choice, my wild card, I'm going to go a climber. Also, he's not very far behind in GC, but just far enough.
Starting point is 00:27:17 I think he's around four or five minutes. Also in the Rubio Colombian rider from movie star, he's plus 8,000. Uh, he's one of those guys who could be in a break and, uh, he's strong enough to ride away from everybody in the final and that last time. Actually really liked this pick plus 8,000. I'm going to go med on this guy and that's cause he's 20th overall. He is four Oh three back. Like you can't, if, if you're marking either Rubio out of the breakaway, you've got some problems as a team because you're going to be, you're not going to let
Starting point is 00:27:54 the breakaway go because there's too many riders about that distance back from the race lead. Um, plus 8,000 that's crazy. Um, for a rider that good at climbing a rider that strong and keep movie stars Got no other thing going on here. Like he's the best place GC rider They're just gonna be about breakaways for the rest of the stage. They're gonna have riders in the break Maybe it's Rubio and they'll have riders to help him get in the break because they're not gonna be Conserving resources for anything else. Yeah
Starting point is 00:28:21 My I guess my wild card is not really a wild card because he's placed much higher than my favorite, but Tom Pitcock plus 1000. It's still pretty good price for Tom Pitcock. And you look at this stage, it is a Tom Pitcock stage because how many riders can climb as well as him and sprint against, you know, they'll, if there's anyone there, he can probably beat them in a sprint. He probably won't get dropped. The question is, will he be in that move?
Starting point is 00:28:51 He is 16th overall, 341 back, but then again, if you're, if you're marking Tom Pickcock out of the move, that's going to be a long day. Cause there's going to be a lot of other writers like that you're going to mark too. Yeah. I mean, you know, he can get in the break. Are they going to let the break far, far enough away that, that pit cup couldn't get in the lead, for example. I don't think so. And also Spencer, you have to always have this in mind, right?
Starting point is 00:29:16 Like after now, the more stage 11, in the ground tour, after half race, you've had, we've had two time trials now and we had, what would you say, not really a mountain stage, a difficult stage. But anyway, if you're three and a half, 345, four minutes down, it's for a reason. It's because you've lost effectively that time for a reason. So that means that you you know, you would have to improve dramatically to be all of a sudden be two levels higher and be considered a podium contender or a grand tour winner contender. Right. So usually if they're there, it's because they don't
Starting point is 00:29:58 have the legs to, if they're in that position with three, four or five minutes down, it's because they've lost that time, you know, fair and square. Yeah. Unless they lost the chunk of it on the gravel stage because they flatted or crashed then, yeah, well, you know, bitcocks did crash, did, did puncture also. So he did lose time there. Um, but you know, then again, you know today, he didn't do a good time trial. So he's on okay shape to win a stage, but I think this is the kind of guy that you could eventually
Starting point is 00:30:35 say, okay, you know what? We'll just let him go. Even if there's a risk of him taking the jersey, let's just do it. His team is going to defend it like crazy. Anyway, he would actually be an ideal rider to be in pink by like 30, 45 seconds. Um, because that would mean that Q36.5 would kill themselves to defend that Jersey as long as they can and UAE, uh, would be sitting back and just, uh, just smoke a cigar and watch what happens. Yeah. Well, the only problem with that is if you, if you smoke too many cigars sit back too much, then wins the race. At some point you might have to press them because he's not,
Starting point is 00:31:18 he's not a terrible rider. So no, no, no, no, for sure. Sure. Um, I, yeah, I do think he, I do think probably be in this move. I guess, as I say that, I now worry about this opening where you could, maybe he just misses it because it's too fast and then it's gone. I honestly could see this break going on the climb. I could see this just being a San Perigrino. You mean, yeah.
Starting point is 00:31:41 Well, you know, what's, you know, what's also the case Spencer is that, and this depends of course on the behavior of the team with the pink jersey, in this case UAE, right? But it's perfectly possible, especially with such a long and hard climb in the middle that there's a break and they have whatever one, one and a half minutes, and there's still time to bridge up for any climber who's not well placed in GC on the San Pedrino. You can easily bridge a gap of one and a half, two minutes on this climb. Well, you have to be pretty careful about that. If you're the one managing the gap because of, I don't know, Richard Carapaz bridges up on that.
Starting point is 00:32:26 And then you get over the climb and you don't have as many teammates because you've just went over a 14 kilometer long nine percent climb. So it's to get dicey really fast. Yeah. Well, that's why, that's why UAE will need to set a pace that they can preserve the majority of their riders, their riders in the group or, and worst case they get dropped with one or two kilometers to the top, the teammates of UAE and they can come back,
Starting point is 00:32:54 but it's always better to keep the try to keep the team together and lose an extra minute rather than lose a guy who won't make it back. Yeah. Yeah. Well, Johan, do you have anything else on tomorrow's stage? No, it's going to be an interesting stage. It's not an easy stage, you know. And especially for the favorites who have given it all today, sometimes some riders the day after the time trial have, have a bad day. So that could always be an opportunity for one of the GC guys to test his rifles
Starting point is 00:33:32 and see if everybody has recovered properly from their time trial effort. Yeah. When I glanced at this stage layout, you know, before the race, I thought, ah, this second week, it's a little boring, but now that we're in it, it's quite clever how they've done it. I do think this is, it's not going to show us too much, but you can't be terrible the day after the time trial or like, you'll be found out on that mid-stage climb. The Pelligree, that's the real one or it's, it's, it's a one. We know that it's a very hard,
Starting point is 00:34:01 it's hard. It's hard. I actually kind of can't believe it's this hard. I mean, how many times have you ever done a climb that long with that high of average gradient? That's a very hard climb. Yeah. Go out this evening, everybody listening and do your local nine mile long climb at nine percent average and report back how you feel afterwards. But Johan, we'll let you go to bed and we'll be back tomorrow breaking down stage 11. Okay, thanks. All right, bye.

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