THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia Stage 11 Analysis & Stage 12 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 21, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Stage 11 of the Giro d'Italia, which Richard Carapaz won at the end of a bold late-stage attack. They discuss the hard stage, including why it was so difficult for a breakaway to get clear, UAE's two-leader tactics, the aggression from high-placed GC contenders, and where this leaves the GC picture. Afterward, they preview tomorrow's Stage 12, predicting who will win, how the action will play out, and which riders present the best betting value. Maui Nui - Maui Nui offers the only 100% Wild-Harvested meat that's completely stress-free and responsibly sourced. It's perfect for anyone looking to elevate their meals with delicious, high-quality protein.   Maui Nui Venison is offering THEMOVE listeners a limited collection of our favorite cuts and products. Head to https://mauinuivenison.com/themove to secure your access now.    Saily - Get an exclusive 15% discount on Saily data plans! Use code THEMOVE at checkout. Download the Saily app or go to https://saily.com/themove .

But everybody kept going in UAE and finally after the climb, after the downhill, some groups came back together and they had all eight riders together. I mean, you don't understand Spencer how that feels as a team, the comfort it gives to see, okay guys, listen, everybody's suffering, everybody's tired, we have all eight guys here. That sounds safe. You know, that feels really safe as a team who's in the lead. So yeah, UE was a great day today. Whenever whenever there was attacks or a selection, they had three or four guys, if not more. Everybody welcome back to the move plus. I'm Spencer Martin.

I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are breaking down stage 11 of the Giro d'Italia. And then at the end, we'll preview stage 12 and Johan will give us pick on who's going to win and how it's going to play out. First a quick little primer on the stage. Richard Carapaz wins. First of all, going even back further than that, it's a mountainous stage, deceptively hard, like a flat opening, flat, two false flat opening section.

Probably one of the hardest climbs in the race just smacked right in the middle of this. The Alpe San Pellegrino, not quite sure. Still not sure if this is the real San Pellegrino. It is the real hard San Pellegrino. I was going to say, if this wasn't the real one, I don't want to meet the real one because this thing was ridiculous. 14K long. It said 9.9% average on the TV graphic here.

It says 8.8% average. And then descent and then a few climbs to the finish. There was a final climb of about 6K long with 6% average and then rolling to the finish line. We thought breakaway and initially there was a breakaway, but it didn't go until the climb. And that the problem that created is it couldn't create a gap because UAE was riding tempo back in the group to deter attacks.

So their gap never got high enough. And they got reeled in at the end. He had EF up there thinking, what's EF doing at the front of this race? And then Richard Carapaz attacks on the final climb. A little bit of almost hesitation from UAE and Carapaz holds them off by 10 seconds. His gap was getting eaten into in the rollers at the end there, but he wins, gets a 10 second time bonus, 10 second gap. So he's moved up into sixth place overall, 156 behind Isaac del Toro, who's still

in the lead Who actually puts a little bit of time in everybody because he gets second gets that six second time bonus But all the major contenders finish in the group behind it's an 18 rider group The breakaway was Naira Cantana, Pellobel, Ball, Luke Plapp and Lorenzo Fortunato So strong riders and also Wout Poles. Don't forget, Wout Poles, you're almost right there. Johan with your pick. But first of all, what were your thoughts on how the stage was won? Richard Carapaz's win. I would say pretty impressive. Yeah, I was an impressive final, as you say, Spencer, you know, once you saw that

the from the beginning, there was a lot of attacks, big groups even. But, you know, if there's big groups, you cannot give them much time. And then finally, these four riders, five riders went away on the San Pellegrino. And by definition, you know, it's good climbers. If you look at the names, Quintana, Puls, Fortunato, Luc Plap, Pello Bilbao. But UAE was in a position that they had, I think on the San Pellegrino, they still had four guys together on the climb.

Primoz Roglic was isolated. Nobody else had many teammates around. And so we could see that they were setting a pace basically to avoid any other attacks. Egan Bernal tried to attack. Great recovery, by the way, from yesterday's bad performance. We sat in the show and then afterwards I saw Egan Bernal did crash yesterday in the time trial pretty hard. So, you know, he had that as an excuse for his counter performance. But today he looked back on good shape. He attacked and so after that, UAE just set a

tempo because with attacks, you lose the unity in your team. I could see again, I mean, it's been a while ago since we've seen him on such a high level, but Rafael Maica today looked like he was back in his prime. He set a tempo that nobody could attack. And so I think UAE today, they rolled very strong. They also rolled very conservative. Because if you look at what happened after the climb, so the big climb was in the middle of San Pellegrino. It's normal that your team is going to fall apart. But everybody kept going in UAE. And finally, after the climb, after the downhill,

some groups came back together and they had all eight riders together. I mean, you don't understand, Spencer, how that feels as a team, the comfort it gives to see, okay, guys, listen, everybody's suffering, everybody's tired. We have all eight guys here. That sounds safe. That feels really safe as a team who's in the lead. So yeah, UE was incredibly strong today. Whenever there was attacks or a selection, they had three or four guys, if not more. Um, and then, um, so yeah, I mean, then finally the, the, the breakaway was reeled in, uh, they kept a good pace.

Nobody else could attack. And finally, uh, the, the, also we need to, we need to mention a part of UAE chasing, much better than by himself, did the work of like half a, half a team, um, for a G corner. Uh, he was, he was incredible today. Um, two and a half minute gap to the breakaway. Yeah. Yeah. He was incredible. He was incredible. Uh, yeah. I mean, the atmosphere and the track must be unbelievable. They won four stages already.

Everybody's there is there a euphoric, you know, and really good ambiance for sure at the dinner table, in the bus. Nothing. There's no more pressure. They don't have to do anything, but everything that comes is a bonus. So, Mats Pedersen, what a teammate. And then, yeah, on the last climb, And then, yeah, on the last climb, EF set a really fast pace preparing an attack from Carapaz. It was clear he was going to attack. Was it Steinhauser who was setting the pace? I think it was Steinhauser.

Yeah. And you could see Carapaz on the radio. Everybody sees that also. So I was a bit surprised that nobody else tried to go with him. Um, I mean, you didn't have to go with him because they are defending pink and they, they just want to keep their guys together. Uh, he kind of took advantage, right? Of the fact that the attack, that the moment that the breakaway was caught. And so he went on the inside. But anyways, it was a matter of legs.

If anybody else would have had something left, they would have tried to go with him or bridge up to him. He took 20, 30 seconds in two, three kilometers time, and then lost a little bit in the end. But yeah, I mean, great win. First of all, the stage win itself. It's a great stage. The win. And he's moving up in GC again. He didn't do a good time trial yesterday, but in all the other stages, he's been up there without making too much noise. So yeah, he definitely has the podium in

mind. I heard his interview after the stage, he doesn't even exclude winning. I think that's probably a bridge too far, but he's a stage racer and he's a specialist in three week stage races. So I think kind of bus is only going to improve now in this Giro. Yeah, it was super impressive. I, yeah, to answer your question, I, I too was surprised. No one else went. I thought Tom Pitcock would contest the stage in the same way.

Carapaz did the reason no one went with them though, is they were too tired. They didn't have the energy because that was a hard stage. Guys like Pitcock, they were swinging mid stage, you know, just barely hanging on, so he's not going to be able to go. I look like, like think about Derek G, Ina Rubio, Tiberi. These guys are just, they, they, I don't think they could do it. And even Carapace himself looked so, he had a pretty big gap going over the top of the climb and it was evaporating

and he was dead at the finish line. So I think he is just really strong. He always looks like he's going hard, but sometimes he's not going as fast as he would want to be going. But today wasn't one of those days on the UA notes. Yes. They, they had everyone together. Super impressive. Couple, couple things I have questions about. Isaac del Toro, the race leader was at one point in the early breakaway. That doesn't seem great. That doesn't seem relaxed. And then on the climb,

as you say, Rafa Mikeah is in career best form. Egan Bernal attacks and mind you, we are 110 kilometers from the finish line. Egan Bernal attacks, Wani takes his arm, pushes Rafa Micah out of the way and sprints up to the rear wheel of Egan Bernal. And then of course, Ezek del Toro says, well, I don't want that guy to get down on me. I'm going to go up some too.

The question I would have for all of those people is where is he going? We're 110 kilometers from the finish line. Like just stay with your team. I was a little confusing to me. Yeah, I know. I know. Listen, they're two young guys. You know, there's let's not forget they're both in the classification.

They're the first and second in the white competition, as we, as we mentioned yesterday. Yeah. I mean, you, in that case, you should probably not react straight away. Stay with your team, keep the team together. On the other hand, it's also a way of closing down Bernal. You know, if he sees that Del Toro and Ayuso are there, he's not going to keep going. And then the teammates can kind of keep going at their own tempo and come back. So, you know, there's benefits to both strategies, but, you know, we see, I mean, they have the luxury UAE to have so many guys up there that actually no matter the tiny mistakes they're making, it doesn't really affect the outcome of the stage. On the contrary, for example, if you see how

Primoz Roglic is releasing and he has to do it by force, he is forced to do it because he has no teammates. This guy doesn't spend any unnecessary efforts. You know, he's, he's, he's never completely in the front. He's like always, you know, like between fifth and tenth or sometimes in 10, 10, 12 position looking and whatever gap he has to close, he either waits until somebody else closes it or in, in, in, in case of emergency, he closes himself, but always progressively never with a violent acceleration, which in my opinion in the last week will pay off. Yeah. I was, I mean,

you sat here on this podcast after stage three and said, every effort you make in a grand tour has to net you something. And it takes something out of you, especially snap accelerations on a 12% climb at the top of the climb. It might not affect the outcome of the stage. It might not affect them tomorrow or the day after, but you have a finite number of those explosive moves

in you over the course of three weeks. And you see Roglic, like Roglic is, who has won more than anyone in this race? Primus Roglic. He has five ground tours and is not wasting any energy. He's slowly closing everything down. It, you know, on that note, we also have to say, he has no other choice, Spencer. He's gone down twice already in this year, also,

which is also something you have to you have to take in mind. And we'll see. I think today, specifically today, Primoz Roglic and Juan Ayuso didn't have a great day. They didn't have the luxury to attack or follow attacks or, you know, even when, even when, when, when Del Toro went, Ayuso could not follow. I mean, he had to, he had to go on the side and then wait until somebody else closed, closed the gap. So if Ayuso was to just, to just have followed the wheel, you know, if he, if the wheel, if he's comfortably in the wheel there, then

he would have done it. So he couldn't. Roglic, the same Roglic was a little bit back, didn't react straight away. It was still far to go also. I mean, at least there's, there's always going to be, I mean, when, when Del Toro went on the last time, no, was on the last time. I think so. The five kilometer climb, it would be too far if it was the other climb. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but still, um, when the total went, um,

Caruso and Tiberi were straight away on the wheel. So it was not like it was a super violent attack. It was, I don't really know why he did it. You know, it's, it's, it's the, I think it's the pure inexperience and the adrenaline and the excitement that makes him do these things. What's for sure is he's incredibly strong. I mean, once again, he got second. Uh, he had the most punch at the end. It was like really impressive at the end. Like it was almost coasting into second.

Yeah. Yeah. So, um, yeah, I mean, uh, didn't have a great time to all yesterday, but in these kinds of stages, uh, it's the second or the third time already that we see that, you know, he rides around like, as they say, no chain, no, the second or the third time already that we see that, you know, he rides around like, as they say, no chain. No, doesn't feel the pedals.

It's, yeah. He's very strong. I would not be comfortable if I'm one of his rivals, including Juan Ayuso. Well, yeah, he is very strong. scary strong. I totally agree with that. If he was your rider and he's jumping into the early move, attacking on the final climb sprinting for second is totally good because you get six seconds. That's worth it. What would you tell him? Would you say keep it up or would you say this is not sustainable?

It depends. I mean, you know, I mean, depends in the case of, in the case of UAE and Machin, it's maybe, it's maybe good for Machin because he's obviously promised the leadership to Ayuso. And you know, he sees this young Mexican guy who's strong making these little mistakes. And he's going to say, okay, guys, listen, just do, just keep doing it. We're in the lead and at the meet in the same time, the guy that I want to win the Giro is saving himself.

I'm just talking, I mean, I don't know. I don't know. I'm just, this is a hypothesis. But I would recommend him to take it, I mean, not take it easy, but be conservative and really save, I mean, he's it easy, but be conservative and, and, and really save. I mean, he's in the lead now. It's the other guys who have to attack, uh, and he will need every single bit of energy in the last week. So, uh,

I would recommend them to, you know, just follow and rely on his team. Yeah, this is the easiest part of the race. Like it only gets harder from here. And on I used to in Roglic, I agree. I don't think they looked amazing today. Doesn't really, they're kind of lucky because then I don't think the next few days are gonna be that GC decisive. Even Sunday stage to Osceago, you got to do Monte Grappa, but then it's this long,

there's a lot of case to race after Monte Grappa. And then I think week three is where it's going to go down. So they have a lot, you know, a lot of time to let Del Toro run on that line, that fishing line while they get better. I'm sitting here. It can happen, Spencer. It can happen that the day after a big time trial, uh, and they both went very, very deep that you're not, you're not feeling great.

They both gave it everything they had yesterday. The day after it can happen that you feel like, okay, this is not a great day. Let me just try to stay where I am and not be seen. Both of them could, I mean, we've seen a few details. I could say maybe they were not great today, but they could hide it pretty well. It was not extremely obvious. I would say. Yeah. I mean, that's why they're both, I guess, I used to, so now he's clearly, he's clearly younger and not one as much as pretty much Roglic, but very like,

uh, I was impressed by his, he's almost like a veteran savvy. He's a race savvy race. Yeah, he is. Yeah. Except when he's pushing his dog, my steaks out of the way so he can close that. That's what they're there for. That's what they make the money for. A couple of more UAE questions for you. So after Carapaz attacks, Carapaz attacks, they, real the move fans will know what I'm referencing there. They go to the front and Adam Yates and Brendan McNulty are pacing and they do a fine job. They get within 10 seconds. Carapaz gets 20 seconds. Like, ah,

that's kind of not ideal, but it probably is going to be fine. Yeah. So I mean, no notes on the chase. The only thing is they don't draw, they lose a little bit of time in the GC, but they don't totally like blow up. I mean, is this sustainable? Like what's the plan for these two guys that are still in the top 10, they'll probably continue to leak time, but will they fully sell out for their domestic duties because of that GC position? Will that not matter? It's great to have them up there, you know,

because in the stages that are not now coming, I mean, in case there's a big group, you can put one of those two in there, you know, that's going to be their job to cover the moves. Like, like groups of 20, 25. Yeah. But we saw that today with like, I think we saw like a group of 30 or something go up the road. Yeah. More than 30, more than 30. You can't control.

So, yeah, well, you can, you can, you can, if it's, if it's hard and then, you know, if it's a hard stage, you can control it. But if it's not hard, the group in front, I mean, and then if you, all of a sudden you have a situation where everybody looks at you and say, okay, you, come on, you guys, you know, the good looking boys, it's up to you now. We're all, you know, we're not, nobody's going to help you then you're kind of in trouble. So in that, in those cases, it's interesting to have these guys like Adam Yates and McNulty. Because if one of them is in there, they're always in a great situation. There's no other team who's going to be better than them.

Okay. I'm sold. So for the next four stages, that's going to be very handy. And on, on, on Roglic watch, people might've noticed he had an additional teammate with them today. So instead of having one rider with them over the top of that mid stage climb, he had two riders with them, which still two versus seven. I guess I used to is a little different because he had eight teammates, but really six helpers because of one of the teammates is now racing for the

overall as well. That's not a great ratio. Like Red Bull still has not put it all together. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, definitely not. So they, I mean, as we said, you know, yesterday they, they, they, no, no, definitely not. So they, I mean, as we said, you know, yesterday they had the five guys in the crash. They have now a few days to lick their wounds and try to be better, but it's not easy to improve in a ground tour. Once you're struggling, it's you know, you're hurt, you have wounds, you don't sleep well. You don't recover. During the races, you're suffering more than usual. So it's more difficult to recover from that. Uh, yeah.

I mean, maybe one or two guys can turn it around, but we're not going to see the whole Red Bull team firing on all cylinders, uh, for the rest of this year. Any other thoughts on the stage before we go to the preview for tomorrow? What else was there? Yeah. I mean, for two not all for two. Not all is clearly going for the KOM. Did it, you know, had a big day today with, uh, was it 40 points at the top? I think. Yeah. And he looks a lot better than he did. Yeah. Yeah.

So it's clear that, I mean, it's still not, there's a lot of climbs to become, but yeah, it's once again, I think the KOM is going to be won by a breakaway rider, which, you know, it's a shame that it's not the best climber in the race who wins the KOM. That's, in my opinion, a classification that they should rethink a little bit. Yeah, the Giro tends to have this where it's not the best climber. It's someone who games it. The Tour has had the opposite problem where it's the best climber, but that is the guy who's just winning the GC. Except last year.

I thought last year was a really good, that was almost the best version of the KOM you can get because you had Carapaz doing everything he could do to take it from Pagachar, who didn't even really care about it. But you know, like there was that stage 20 where he had to sneak into the, he had to like bridge up to the breakaway to seal the Jersey, which was kind of thrilling to watch.

Yeah. And obviously a good climber, like not someone that's a Panacookan as you guys would say. Yeah, but still, he also wanted with breakaways with breakaways, but I mean, yeah, yeah. But bridging out of the lead group on a mountain stage and then up to the breakaway and then still competing for the win. Like that. I'll give you. It's also Spencer. Listen, it's very simple. You know, that like the guys for GC are obviously also the best climbers,

but they don't care about the KOM. It's not, it's not something that they go for at the expense of their GC. If they're a podium or top five candidate, they could. Yeah, we can be kind of interesting if this would just make it worse. But if there was like triple the UCI points available to the winner of the KOM Jersey, you'd see some really weird stuff out there. No, I think the KOM should, at least in the big mountain stages, should have double points on the, on the, on the final climb. Yeah.

Then you're, then you make sure that the best climber has the, the KOM. Yeah, that would make sense. I mean, what'd you think about the design of the stage generally? Like that was an awesome climb, but it's in the middle. So it kind of blunts its. Well, you know, it's, it keeps the suspense, right? Because if they, if today, if today is finished on the San Pellegrino, yeah, the GC would be different. You know, it would be a race between three riders already. Yeah.

And now there's still, you know, there's still a bunch of riders within two minutes, two and a half minutes. So that's good. I think that's good. Yeah. I mean, I don't know if this is interesting to the general public, but even just saying, like, oh, they have two and a half minutes. Like is the Pelton going to chase and the Matt's better soon gets the front and blows up the gap. And then you have a pretty thrilling race for the stage win and some GC

implications, but pretty exciting. So yeah, it worked out well. Well, let's take an ad break, Johan, and then we'll predict stage two, tomorrow's stage 12. The first partner we have today is Maui Nui. Maui Nui's line of 100% wild harvested red meats is an extremely healthy option that delivers the highest protein to calorie ratio available, 53% more than grass-fed beef. Their sugar-free peppered stick packs offer 10 grams of protein at just 55 calories per pack and are loaded with essential nutrients

vitamins healthy fats and are the perfect snack to stay fueled between meals Pre or post-workout or pre podcast. I had one right before coming down to the studio. So I feel fueled up I also this might just be What are they placebo effect? But I've been having these packs throughout the day and I feel like I'm snacking less and then eating healthier at meals. But that's not scientifically backed up.

I just feel that that's true. And one of the best parts of ordering from Maui Nui Venison is that you're not only getting healthy, delicious, ethical meals delivered directly to your door, but you're playing a key role in their mission to reclaim the abundant food system and preserve the delicate native ecosystems on Maui. As a former resident on the island,

of the island I know that, A, it's difficult just to get food there. Usually you're paying a lot for imported food. It doesn't make a lot of sense because you can grow a lot of food and harvest food there. And that's what Maui Nui is doing, providing the local food source and the issue of the access deer overpopulation is real.

And Maui Nui is doing their best to ethically solve that problem. So now that you know Maui Nui offers 100% wild harvested meat that's completely stress free and responsibly sourced, and it's perfect for anyone looking to elevate their meals with delicious high quality protein, you're in luck because the Move listeners are offered a limited collection of their favorite cuts and products, but supplies limited by the nature of their work. All you have to do is head to mauinuivenison.com slash the move to secure

your access now. That's mauinuivenison.com slash the move to get that now. And the link is in the show notes. If you just want to follow it there. And our last partner for the day is Sally. When I'm traveling abroad for bike races, when I was in France for the tour last summer, it's a, it's tough cause you're trying, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is,

is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, is, some data, but you're not going to be able to watch that much of the race and you're going to eat through your allotment quickly. And that's where Salie helps. It's a mobile eSIM app that lets you grab your local data plan in over 150 countries right from your phone. No more swapping SIM cards, no more hunting down phone stores and a jet lagged haze. You land in a new country, open the app and boom, you're connected. This is, I can't say enough about this.

You don't have to go to like a phone store in France and try to speak French and buy a SIM card. It's, it's not a pleasant experience. And with an eSIM, you can just do it directly on your phone. It's fast, affordable and reliable and built by the same people behind NordVPN, who we use a lot on this podcast to watch a lot of the races. So you know, it's a good product. Download the SAILI app or head to salei.com slash the move. That's S-A-I-L-Y and use code the move at checkout to save 50% on your data plan. Again, that's salei.com slash the move and use code the move at checkout for 15% off your data plan. All right, Johan, stage 12. Tomorrow we get a likely sprint stage

from Modena to Viedana, we'll call it. There's one of these confusing ones where you have two names up here. I'm just gonna pick the first one. 172 kilometers. It is in the Po Valley. It could be Pancake Flat, but they take a little detour into the mountains

around Modena. So there's a few categorized climbs. There's some sprint points, some bonus seconds. I think this is probably going to be a bunch sprint. I will. And then you have a very Giro circuit in town. That's probably overly difficult. The odds for the stage are Olaf Koi is the heavy favorite at plus 115, Caden Groves plus 275, Mads Pedersen plus 1100, Sam Bennett plus one 15, Caden Groves plus two 75 Mads Patterson plus 1100 Sam Bennett plus 1100 Milan Fritton plus 1400 Paul Monnier plus 1600 Casper van Oden plus 1800 Matteo Muscati plus 1800 wild Van Arp plus 2500.

It goes on and on. We'll call them out if we need to, but Johan, who do you think is going to win this stage? Yeah. Well, first of all, we, we, we expect it to be a bunch print. It's not 100% sure, Spencer, because the first part of the stage is quite hard. There's going to be a break of riders who are strong riders. Now, this is obviously a stage where teams with sprinters have been waiting for. So normally it is going to be two or three teams that will try to control. I expect a bunch sprint. It's flat at the end.

It could be a bit technical. There's a tricky corner with about 300 or 400 meters to go. But still, I think there's enough interest amongst certain teams with sprinters, Alpecin, Biknik, Visma, and others who actually only are here for this, around the sprinter. So I'm going to pick, although he hasn't been... I mean, he's been one time in the second, I guess, Olaf Koi. He's had some bad luck in some of the sprints, didn't really go his way, but he's fast. He's a strong rider who after 10, 11 days of racing will still be good enough. Big engine. So Olaf Koi, he's only one 15 plus one 15, but I think he is my best choice tomorrow for doing the stage.

Yeah. That 365, which is available in the U S he's plus one 25. So that's slightly better. He's, he's fast. Obviously the market thinks he's really fast. I guess the thing is that second place, he didn't really get a chance to show it because he was boxed in. The only thing is, right, you know who looked pretty good when Olaf Koi got second was Kaden Groves and he's plus 275.

So I would probably go Groves just because of the price and he looked fast and he's got the the motivated dedicated team. So right there, that's a pretty good combination. I'm not saying Koi isn't going to win, but I do think they probably should be. Yeah, I know. I agree. I agree with you, Spencer. Groves looked fast. He looked incredibly fast, a lot faster than everybody else. The stage he won. And then there's at least one stage that I can remember that I saw him come from behind and had

the highest speed of all the sprinters didn't make it to first or second. But I'm just a little bit more leaning to Olaf Koi because I think Wout Vonert is back to decent form and he's going to be the lead out guy for Olaf Koi tomorrow. So if Wout Van Aert can bring him in good position, I think Olaf Koi has a good chance. You know what we sometimes see on stages like this and we see it more and more every year and I feel like it doesn't used to happen that much. So you say it's hard in the beginning teams get nervous. They say, Oh, breakaway can stay away, keep the breakaway in a tight leash. And we've been waiting forever for this stage.

We're here to win these sprints. They keep the gap too small and then a, they either catch it too early. And then a fresh group of writers go that happened at the zero. I want to say three years ago or two years ago. And then I believe Magnus court when that stage or he got second. And then what happened at the tour two years ago is where you get it too close. And then people bridge up to the breakaway from the Peloton. And then you have now a fresh blood in the breakaway. Like you have this little launch pad with about a hundred, you know, it's about with

like 70 K to go stuff could get weird there. And then you like, I do worry about them keeping this too tight. But then trying to pick who would have went out of that is probably too difficult. But do you have another pick in case your car doesn't win? Yeah, I'm going to, my second pick is also going to be a sprinter. And especially because of the price, Kasper Uden plus $1,800. The winner stage already showed that he is really fast. His team is the only thing they have to do here. They're out of GC. Bardet is not in great shape. Max Poole is also fading, I think, definitely not good enough to be with the first group. So I think Kasper van Uyden is one of those guys, and this is one of those teams who have

been waiting for a number of stages now for this particular stage. So if they can repeat what they did in the first week, then he's my second choice, especially because plus 1800 is a very interesting price. Yeah. And that final hairpin, it's like a negative or decreasing radius turn. It's ridiculous. That could play a big part. It's probably 400, 300 meters to go. Whoever has the best lead out there is going to have a huge advantage. Casper van Uden.

He had that really impressive picnic lead out who timed it perfectly last time. I'm going to go Milan Fratton though. He got second to actually, no, he got, yeah, he got second in Napoli. Grove's got second to van Uden. I'm going to go Fratton. Just, that's my pick. If, if people crash like, or if people are out of position, they're not, yeah. And then like, you see this all the time at the zero and you're like, what, how's that the outcome of the sprint? So yeah, I know it's, it's, it's typical. And especially for this Giro, we've said it already before Spencer, you know, there's, there's not one team that really has the power to, to, to, to maintain that speed of the sprint train and make it

like a real lead out there. They're always bunched up. And Frétein is one of those riders who knows how to navigate and all of a sudden sees an opening. To win the stage, it's a bit of a stretch, I think, but it's not impossible. And just before we go, these odds have been moving quite a bit, even since the time trial, this is to win the overall one. A USO is plus one 50, the favorite kind of interesting. Ezek del Toro second plus 200 Primoz Roglic plus 300 richer

care and plus 800. It's interesting that Roglic has gotten worse since the time trial, but nothing has changed other than Del Toro getting that time bonus. And then Carapaz getting 20 seconds back. Yeah. And, and once again today, you know, the weakness of Roglic's team versus the strength of UAE. I think that was kind of very obvious today. So that's maybe why it has changed.

Yeah. Yeah. The strength of UAE, I feel like that cuts both ways though. I was not, I was just so, I know I'm making too much of it, but you rarely see a leader, a leader's jersey. I think Spencer, when it really matters, I think they're going to figure it out. They're going to figure it out. They're going to figure it out. They're not worried about the paper airplanes at the press conference.

And listen, no, because let's not forget these guys. Two years ago, they were teenagers. Their kids, they are kids. It's different. They have other priorities. You know, it's like, OK, let's have fun. Let's make a paper plane. You know, well, here's a crazy thing. I was in about last night, but the age gap between Primoz Roglic and Del Toro is almost the same as

between Del Toro and my son, who is like, who was born, like right after Pogacar won his first tour, which doesn't feel that long ago. So like the maturity difference must be ridiculous. I know. Yeah. Yeah. I have to say, though, I have to say, though, I mean, both Ayuso and Del Toro, I mean, they're totally different characters. But man, in the interviews, they are extremely mature, extremely mature. I listened to an interview with Del Toro in Spanish. Um, yeah,

I mean, hats off. It's, it's nice to see, you know, they're young, they want to have fun, you know, they're on TikTok, whatever, but, uh, they know what they want. And they, uh, they're really, really, really, uh, they have both of them have a good head on their shoulders. Are you so almost seems media trained like at the very end, like it's his answers are very good. Who would you pick those three to win if you had to pick right now? I'm still going to go with Primos. Primos cannot be forgotten. He's, he's tough. He's done some really, really good things in the last week of a grand tour already several times. And yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm a pretty much fan.

I'm yeah, I'm wearing a Primo shirt right now. So maybe don't listen to my advice, but I'm surprised. Yeah, I see. I see. Yeah. Plus 300 on this. It seems a little, if you wanted to bet Primos now's the time to bet them because it's not going to get better than this. Even I was funny is it was the other day. I saw Del Toro was like plus 200 to finish in the top 10, which I must've been a mistake. I bet it, but I would imagine he finishes in the top 10 at this point.

If he doesn't finish in the top 10 at this point. It, if he doesn't finish in the top 10, he probably doesn't finish the race at all. Yeah, it's kind of, it's easy. That's even, you know, either a complete meltdown or sickness. Other than that, he's definitely finishing at a top 10. Yeah. Well, yeah. He had even with like a sickness, like you know, it's crazy is like Pagatra had that meltdown at the 2023 tour and then he still finishes second. Like that shows you like some of these guys are so much better that they can still salvage

really good results when they have terrible days. But anything else, Johan on tomorrow's stage before we take off? No, that's it for me, Spencer. All right, well, we will talk tomorrow about stage 12 and look forward to stage 13. Okay, thanks. Alright, bye.