THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia Stage 18 Analysis & Stage 19 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 29, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Nico Denz's ride to win Stage 18 of the Giro d'Italia, where the GC contenders sat back and let a large early breakaway duke it out for the stage win. They discuss a few main takeaways from the stage before previewing tomorrow's massive GC mountain set piece, predicting who will win, how the action will play out, and which riders present the best betting value.

Hats off to Nico Dance. I think Red Bull Bora, they were really in need for a win, a stage win after Primoz quit. And you know, that's obviously a boost for the morale. They have two more stages. They have Pelidzari now also, that probably will move up and have some good results. So maybe they can still make the best of it under the circumstances. Everybody welcome back to the move plus I'm Spencer Martin I'm here with Johan Berniel we are breaking down stage 18 of the Giro d'Italia which just wrapped up one by Nico Dents and then we will predict tomorrow's major GC set piece stage 19. But first, let's go through a little bit of the stage just to give a little background. Also full disclosure,

Johan was on an eight hour bike ride across the region of Spain that he lives in. And so I'll be filling him in as well on this, as well as asking him some questions about the stage. Before you start. So I just want to full transparency. I haven't seen the stage. I just, I just got to the hotel. We were, yeah, I would say seven and a half hours on the bike, probably nine hours in total from start to finish with stops. Long, long, super long mountain bike ride from Madrid to Segovia with two friends. So unfortunately, I haven't seen anything of the stage. So I'll let you take the lead on that. And I'll just give my idea on what I hear from you.

I know Nico Dance won. I know it was a breakaway stage. I know nothing happened in GC. And I know that, oh no, you also dropped out. So those are the main. Yeah, that sounds, I watched it start to finish. You might know as much as I did. I also used to work at a major, major cycling magazine.

And you watched about as much as people that work at cycling magazines watch about cycling. So we're at a good place. So the race starts beautiful day, we should say. I would say that's like the main takeaway of the day. Just like everyone should go to Lake Como right now. It was incredible weather. It looked fantastic. Started really fast, not a long stage, 144 kilometers. Immediately predictions of a sprint stage look dubious because Alpecin is trying to get in the break. So I'm thinking, ah, I don't think they're going to want to pull this back. Mads Pedersen is active while Vinard is active, you know,

FISMA is up there, little tracks up there. Alpecin's up there. Not good. They're not going to pull that back for a sprint. Eventually a big group, almost 40 riders gets clear. And what kind of odd in the first climb UA keeps the pace really high so the gap is about a minute I'm thinking is someone gonna try to jump across here this is a little risky maybe they were doing it so no one would attack and then after that first climb the pace just totally comes off in the GC group we know it's gonna be breakaway they get to

the last climb with this was about 50 kilometers ish to go VF Bardiani. I don't even think they're VF Bardiani. We'll just say the VF team is very active. They get two riders up the road with one other. They go down the descent. They're kind of descending down into the planes around Milan with 40 K to go. It all comes back together, but a group that big, you know it's not going to go to the line. It starts to split up again, about 30 K to go. There's going to go to the line. It starts to split up again, about 30k to go.

There's a big break off the front. It has Visma, it has Alpecin, it has Little Trek. So you know, well that's not coming back. They're averaging like 65k an hour, absolutely flying. Quickly get a 40 second gap. Then 18k to go. Everyone, if you are a young bike racer and you want to win races, go watch this stage, the last 20 K at this stage. Cause Nico dense doesn't really have a sprint. He's in a group with a bunch of riders, some of them probably faster than them. They're going through some chicanes. It's hard going into it.

Nico dense just gets to the front and the chicanes drills. It gets a little gap, not very big and just stays on the gas. Eventually there's, I think there's an XCS Astana rider on the front. He pulls up, you know, it's the classic, the rider chasing pulls up think there's an XCS Astana rider on the front. He pulls up. You know, it's the classic, the rider chasing pulls up. There's a little bit of hesitation. Den's gets a few seconds. And as we know, if you're in Italy, if you're at the Giordataglia and you're at the front,

you might have a little moto help and Nico was gone. I mean, he was just like gone immediately. You know, he wasn't getting pulled back. And especially with a fairly large group behind, like no one's going to work for anybody else. There's not a lot of teammates in there. Nico dense wins. I would say the big takeaway though, behind him, Mirko Mastriotti gets second for Pulte Vizit Malta.

That's 130 UCI points. It almost looked to me like he maybe thought he was sprinting for the win and then realized he wasn't, or he was just upset because he knew he could have won if it came down to a sprint. Eddie Plankert on Alpecin is third, but Poulty should be happy. That's a lot of UCI points for them. That's a good day out for them. And then in the GC group, they roll in 13 minutes later. One kind of oddity, Johan, is there was concern at a certain point that the GC group would

be caught by the breakaway in the final circuit Which is like what happens in levels of races? I used to do I have never seen it happen at a world tour race and I think the organizer Had q36.5 right on the front because they came to the front and picked up the pace and I can't imagine any reason why they Would do that other than being asked nicely by RCS to do that. So that was kind of a, a funny little wrinkle. Denz gets the third zero one of his career and no GC changes except one of you. So leaving the race because of the beast thing. Yeah. Okay. Well, um, you know, I, I definitely expected it to be a bunch print. Uh, but as you say, you know, if the, if all person and little track and

Visma are in the break, then there's nobody else to pull. So I guess they put the GC to prepare perfectly for the last two hard stages. So I think they got a relatively a recovery day, I would say, because they finished 30, 14 minutes back, right? To the, it was like 1351, that GC group. So, um, so yeah, uh, I don't, I don't think it's going to change a lot in the strategy. The fact that I use, so it's, uh, out there now down to six riders because J Vinyl's already, uh, quit also. So, um, they lose two riders in days, but you know, for the two stages that are left,

I think that's enough. Yeah, that Spencer, not much to say, you know, breakaways like this, 35 plus riders, it's always difficult to win from this. So hats off to Nico Dance. I think Red Bull Bora, they were really in need for a win, a stage win after Primoz quit. And you know, that's obviously a boost for the morale. They have two more stages. They have Perizade now now also, and that probably will move up and, and I have some good results, so maybe they can still make the best of it, uh, under the circumstances, Red Bull. Yeah.

Something I forgot to mention is Caden Groves is in the break. So there's wow, then our Mads Patterson, Caden Groves, the reason probably Pedersen and Van Arten didn't make that initial, that final move and had their teammates go down, Van Barrow went for Bisma. Dan went for little check. It's cause they knew they probably would have been beaten by groves. So they were happy to have that group split off the front with their representation in it. Groves also had a rider in that group. And it's like, uh, like nuclear, what do they call it? Like mutually assured destruction.

Like the sprinters knew like, well, girls will probably beat us. So let's not let this happen. And then that's kind of why that group went away. Yeah. But Yohan, but was this pre-planned with the GC teams? Like, like it's all, it was a weird stage. It was almost like it was a sprint day, but it was the breakaway was the peloton and the, and the peloton was taking a day off almost like, would that have been

talked about? Um, obviously the, the, the sprinter teams had this plan. They knew it was going to be difficult to control. Um, let's not forget, you know, it's stage 18. People are tired. It's not easy to control a breakaway. So rather than having to chase a break of 10, 12 guys, it's probably better to be in it. Right.

Yeah. And then this was, this was the case, but it's not easy to win from a break like this because there's so many different interests. And you really have to choose your moment and then hope that there's not any agreement behind you, which is apparently what Nico Dens did. And Juana Usso leaves the race. I mean, stinks for, what a bad, what just like crummy Giro for him from a luck perspective. He didn't really, he hasn't really done anything wrong. I mean, it's crazy to think back.

What was that stage seven? Remember that uphill finish? It's like, wow, he's the strongest guy in the race. It's just, that's a lesson for all of us that the first uphill finish of the race maybe isn't a great predictor of what's going to happen because things happen along the way. Like what we don't want to get too deep into this, but what does he do the rest? I also, you know, he crashed a lot harder than we initially knew in the gravel stage.

Obviously had problems with the stitches and his knee and then the big, the beast thing. Yeah, there's not much you can do. You know, that's, he would have, he would have preferred to stay in the race and finish the race. I mean, nobody who starts a three week stages, if you're, then if your ambitions are high and then you can't fulfill them, you still want to get to the end of the three weeks on day 18. Does he go to the tour or what's his future look like for the rest of the year? No, he's not going to do any other any other ground tour. Um, he's done,

he doesn't do the tour and he won't do the Vuelta either. So, uh, I guess he'll focus on, on, you know, one week stage races, whatever's left and, uh, probably the world championships. I guess he won't be at the Dauphiné, right? Because they'll have their tour team there. Maybe. Yeah. I mean, I think I don't know if it's internal agreement, but I haven't seen him race with Bogacar anymore since last year's tour of France. So, um,

no, he's not going to do another ground tour. It's fine. You know, I mean, he's, listen, he's 22 years old. Uh, he's still, he has a lot of time and let, you know, let's not be too hard on him. You know, we were, we've sometimes been critical saying that he was, you know, an individual rider. And, uh, at the end of the day, you know, he's, he's a great talent. He's already this year, uh, a lot of nice races and, you know, it doesn't always go the way you want. No, the crazy thing is this is not a prediction. He could win the world championships. It's a good

course for someone like him. So it is like there's stuff left. There's meat left on the bone for him this year. Anything else on the, what do you think? Do you think what RCS probably would ask Q36.5 to pull? And, but what, what happens if they lap them? I kept wanting to see it once it was mentioned. It would have been a disaster. I mean, they would probably, I mean, they would, they would ask, they would ask the, the main Peloton to go on the side and let the break pass. And yeah.

That'd be amazing. I want to go on the side and let the break pass. And yeah. That'd be amazing. Like riding through, you'd have the breakaway riding through the, the caravan in the back to get to the front, people attacking through the peloton. Oh man, I was, I was excited to see it didn't happen unfortunately, but people clearly looking for an easy day because tomorrow is not going to be easy. Are you ready not going to be easy. Are you ready to predict it? Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Well, let's take,

let's take a quick ad break first and then we'll get into it. All right. So stage 19 tomorrow stage, 166 kilometers, not a, not a super long stage, 5,000 meters of climbing, which what is that? That's 18, 19,000 feet climbing in a hundred miles. Basically. Ouch. One, two, three, four, five categorized climbs. Three of those are cat ones, which is like the top categorized climb at the zero. They don't do HC climbs here.

The first hard climb is 16 K long at seven and a half percent. The second hard climb 16.5 K at 7.2%. The third one, not even the last climb, 15K long at 7%. Then you have a little descent, a little kick back up at a 9K long 5% climb. Not crazy hard, but that's after four other climbs. And then a descent down to the finish

feels a little like Carapaz territory, but I'll list off the favorites and we'll get your take on who's gonna win. Richard Carapaz, the market agrees with me, plus 175. Giulio Pelasari, plus 500. Isaac Del Toro, plus 1200. Derek G., plus 1600. Lorenzo Fortunato, plus 1600.

Roman Barde, plus 1800. Wout Polz, plus 1800. Simon Yates, plus 2500. That looks like a steal actually. Damian Caruso, plus 3300. Naurik N'Dana, plus 3300. Johan, who do you think is going to win? And I guess, is this a GC or breakaway day?

I think it's going to be GC day, Spencer. You know, the favorites will give it their all in these last two stages. You have to think that, you know, Karapas may think, okay, maybe I can win, but I need the bonus seconds also. So I'm going to go for Isaac del Toro again to win the stage. These plus, the climbs are hard, but not extremely hard. And I think after what I've seen yesterday, today, a relatively easy day for him, also able to recover. I think he can win tomorrow.

He's faster than Carapaz and Carapaz needs to drop him to win. So I'm going to go for him. He's plus 1200 on top of that. needs to drop him to win. So, um, so I'm going to go for him. He's plus 1200 on top of that. So that's, that's a really good price for is a doctor. Yeah, this is kind of, this is a smart pick because even if all things being equal, maybe he won't win at plus 1200, because if they come to the line, like we saw yesterday, he was going to rip him to shreds, like he, he just rode Barde and care of his office wheel on that descent to the finish.

He was just too powerful for them. They couldn't stay there. So it's hard to imagine him not winning on this. As you say, it's possible he doesn't get dropped. I mean, who would have thought that he would have made it to the line after losing time on stage 17, or sorry, on stage 16, on stage 17. So I don't hate the pick. It's a good price, but I'm going to go chalk here. I'm going Richard Carapaz. I think, I mean,

they're not the hardest climbs. They're pretty hard. It's quite a bit of sustained climbing. If I was better prepared, I'd tell you how these climbs compared to the climbs that we've seen so far at this race. But I don't believe we've had a stage where we've had three consecutive climbs all longer than 15 kilometers and length. So that's, that's quite different than what we've seen up to this point. Especially Col de Joux, you know, 15.3 at 7% average,

but there's, there's a few stretches of eight and 9%. And that's, uh, yeah, that's definitely a climb where, where Carap bus can do the damage, uh, for sure. And if care best has, I mean, del Toro doesn't even have to blow up, right? If he just has 20 seconds at the top of that last climb, he could potentially hold them off. And he's a wild man. Like, he's someone that he's going to come out swinging them out, even if like logic would tell us maybe actually just save everything for stage 20, because you can make the difference you need on.

I mean, yeah, carapaz like he's going to come out just absolutely swinging tomorrow. He's good. I think he's going to try every time, every time the chance is going to hit on every climb, you know, I am probably not on probably not on the first cat one time, but listen, the Col San Pantheon, first cat 16.5 kilometers, 7.5% average. It's not easy either. And it's a short stage, so the speeds are going to be high. It can happen anywhere. But I expect Car of us to attack on, uh, on cold

issue. Um, and I think that the total can follow him. He's kind of these interesting time bonuses too, at the bottom of cold issue, because I was thinking if it's, it won't happen like this, but let's say tomorrow is conservative. Everyone's waiting for stage 20. You know, he could have a bad moment. He could not even lose time to Simon Yates. Simon Yates out sprints them on stage 20 and then they're tied on time going into Rome, which is not a good place to be.

You don't want that. You don't want to be doing countbacks in a grand tour. So I think he'll be going for all the time he can get tomorrow. It's not going to come down to that Spencer. There's going to be separate tomorrow, especially on Saturday. Can you imagine sprinting in Rome for positions to win the Giordatale? Yeah. So who's your wild card if it's not del Toro?

My wild card is going to be, uh, Giulio Pelizzari. Um, I think he's, you know, he's showing some incredible form. My wild card is going to be Giulio Pelizzari. I think he's showing some incredible form. Probably for the moment, one of the two or three best climbers in the G-RO. And he's going to be there with these guys, I think, and he could still have some freedom at the end. Yeah. Uh, you know, because he's not a direct threat, so he could potentially take advantage of his position right now and, and sneak away in the final of the group of the favorites. Yeah, I should do.

I like this pick a lot plus 500. You're right. If he attacks, there's not maybe an immediate response five minutes back, five minutes back, other people have other things to worry about. I'm going to go, I mean, this is actually tough. I'm changing this on the fly. Simon Yates plus 2500, I couldn't believe he was this far down. I mean, I know he didn't look the best yesterday. We're talking about a great climber on a really hard stage at 2500. It's just the other option would be Roman Bardei, if you think breakaway, but the more I look at this profile and the race situation, like is a breakaway

realistically getting a chance here? I don't think so. So Simon Yates at plus 2,500 is kind of an interesting pick. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And are you going home tonight, Johan? Are you? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. That's crazy. We're in Segovia.

We're in Segovia. So we left, we started in Madrid, went all the way through the mountains. You have to go over a big pass, a 12 kilometer climb, um, off road. And so we finish on the, there's this, there's this very famous place here. That's it's called the aqueduct of Segovia. It's historic. Uh, so, you know, we finished there, uh, quickly came here to, uh, take a shower,

do the podcast, and now we have, uh, our, our, our price of today is a, a very special dinner that's, you know, there's really a special food here in, in Segovia. So, uh, the three of us, we're going to have a very nice meal now. And then we drive home. Nice. I'm sure that aqueduct, that's like Barton Springs in Austin. It's probably that historic. We're talking one, 200 years old, maybe. It's impressive. Impressive. Yeah. And I was thinking, because you hadn't seen the stage, there's this,

and we were not getting paid by max. I just, max has won me over during this year. There's like key. It's, if you go to the bottom, it's called like key key moments. And you can actually like click on, it will like tell you where the parts of the race are where things happen. So if you wake up tomorrow, you haven't seen this whole stage. It might be like, you know, wall to wall action. You can, you can like scrub to where you need to be. They'll filter it for you. Super helpful if you're watching on Macs. But I also have a sensor for this Giro. It's the first time I see that I'm going to guess they do it for the tour also. It's

like a multi-screen. Yeah. You have four screens. So four, uh so four cameras in the same screen. So you basically, you can have that in the background and then, uh, so you always know what's going on. It'd be great for the tour because then when, when like, you know, Marton's getting dropped in like, that's all the main footages, you can actually see what, what's going on in the race at the front. So that'd be fantastic. Yeah.

Before we go, Spencer, I just want to mention, when I got here like an hour ago, I just got, I saw my phone and I want to extend my condolences to the friends and family of Ludwig Dirksen. He's my generation, from my generation, was a great cyclist, 60 years old, ex-Belgian champion.

He won a stage in the tour also. He today on a charity ride, he crashed and passed away, unfortunately. So I can't believe it. So to all the people, family, friends of Lido, my sincere condolences. I cannot imagine how hard this must be. And I'm thinking about you guys. It's terrible, terrible to hear, shocking. It's, I guess, any ride is technically dangerous.

We need to make sure that we enjoy every day because we never know what tomorrow brings. It is very true. Well, on that note, enjoy your special dinner and we'll be back tomorrow to hopefully break down an exciting stage. Okay, Spencer. Thanks. All right. Bye, Johan.