THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia Stage 19 Analysis & Stage 20 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 30, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin discuss Nicolas Prodhomme's incredible ride to win Stage 19 of the Giro d'Italia, where the GC contenders struggled to reel him in over multiple mountain passes despite a late attack from Richard Carapaz that distanced every other rider in the fight for the overall except race leader Isaac del Toro. They discuss what Del Toro's ride means for his chances of holding on to the overall through Sunday's final stage and preview tomorrow's final GC set piece, which takes the peloton over the massive Colle delle Finestre, before predicting who will win, how the action will play out, and which riders present the best betting value. Hims: Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/themove for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary. Based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. 

It has nothing to do with the parkour or the steepness of the climbs, it's just that everybody is very very tired, which is logical. And today you can see again that those two riders, Carapaz and Del Toro, are just one level ahead of the rest of the favorites. Everybody else was hanging on for dear life and trying to limit the damage. So if you're in a situation like this, there's only one guy who can attack. It's got to pass. It's the only one.

Everybody else is just defending their position. Welcome back to the move plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with the Ohan Brunel. We're breaking down stage 19 of the Giro d'Italia, won by Nicholas Perdom with Isaac Del Toro and second Richard Carabas. Third, we will predict tomorrow's stage 20 at the end of the episode.

But first let's go back through and just recap what's happened before we get into Johan's takeaways. The, it's not a long, not a long stage in distance, but a long stage in time because there was about 5,000 meters of climbing. Race starts off difficult on the first climb. A four rider move gets clear.

It has a Visma rider, EF rider. You immediately start to see they want to be aggressive. It also has a guy by the name of Nicholas Prudhomme. They don't get much of a gap by the top. The pace is really high in the group behind. They get to the second larger climb of the day about 115k to go. A large breakaway finally gets away from the peloton, bridges up to them, has multiple Wiesman riders including Wout Van Aert and then UA gets the front and they finally start to uh they just let it go

which i think was the smart move around 72k to go though Red Bull, Bora, Hansgrohe probably thinks they have a shot at the stage win. They get to the front. The gap at this point is 337 to the breakaway. They start to pace a little bit. 62k to go. Israel Premier Tech and Visma go to the front. They're pacing and then 28k to go on the near the bottom of the Col de Joux. The second to last but hardest remaining climb of the day. Prud'homme attacks, drops Carlos Ferrona, really impressive attack. Like he did not have a big gap at any point and it was not disappearing like I thought it would. And then they get to the final climb, UAE is pacing in the Peloton. It's not an overly hard pace, but it must be hard enough to deter attacks because we don't get a lot of attacks.

But then around 7k to go Richard Carapaz attacks. Isaac Del Toro responds, they get a gap of about 20 seconds on the Peloton, but then they're not really reeling in Nicolas Proudhon. He gets over the top of the final climb with 5k to go with about a 59 second gap. Derek G and Simon Yates are 20 seconds behind Carapaz and Del Toro. Go to the finish, Prud'homme wins, Del Toro gets second, picks up more time bonuses, extends his lead, Carapaz third, and then the chase group comes in 24 seconds behind them. There his, Giulio Pelasari crashes like into a barrier in the final turn. Derek G loses time because of this, but because of the three K rule, they were

given the same time as the group they were in. So now the GC is Isaac del Toro is a 43 seconds up on Richard Carapaz, 121 up on Simon Yates, 227 up on Derek G, 336 on Dominic Cruz. That looks pretty commanding going into the final GC day tomorrow. Johan, what are you thinking about this race? Well, we saw an interesting race today. I didn't think that the breakaway would make it. Prud'homme was very strong.

He deserved that win. He was the strongest of those three. I mean, let's not forget, he was with Verona and with Antonio Tiberi, who had a few difficult days, but they definitely went for the stage when he dropped those guys and then could maintain. First, he could extend the lead on the group of favorites and then could maintain it on Carapaz and Del Toro. So very impressive win, well deserved

for somebody who just won his first ever race three weeks ago in a two-man breakaway with his teammate, young Paul Sechas in Tour of the Alps. Sechas gifted him the stage saying, you know, I mean, I'm young, I will win a lot of races. Nicolas never won one, so he gifted him the stage. Three weeks later, he wins the Giro stage. And then, yeah, it comes down. I mean, tomorrow is the last hard stage, very hard stage. Probably the hardest one because of the nature of Colla di Finestre. nature of Colo di Finestre. And because it's half asphalt, half gravel, the last eight, nine kilometers of gravel. So it's going to be very hard. And we still don't know who's going to win the Giro, which is nice. And also it's now, in my opinion, it's now a two-man

race. I think it's safe to say that Simon Yates doesn't have the legs to follow these guys. Tomorrow's different. It's a longer climb. He definitely doesn't have the explosiveness to respond. It's been two days now in a row where he couldn't respond or two days, the last two mountain stages. And yeah, Derek G is probably going to be fourth in this G row, which is maybe, maybe podium. If, if, if, if Simon Yates doesn't have a great day, but I expect Simon to be solid tomorrow.

And yeah, tomorrow it's all or nothing for both Carapaz and Del Toro. Del Toro looked good today. He was able to follow straight away the attack of Carapaz. So that's good news for him. Had a strong team around him, the strongest team by far. Everybody else was basically isolated except Del Toro. We were on the mid-eight side of the team. I had Kaldurman for a long time. But yeah, I mean, tomorrow is the stage of the Giro, especially with that 18.5 kilometer climb at the end of the stage, 205 kilometers, which is long for the last mountain stage. And the majority of all the elevation is in the last third of the stage tomorrow, which also makes it interesting. third of the stage tomorrow, which also makes it interesting. So we'll see.

Carapaz has to attack, has to drop del Toro and has to make him crack, which on a climb like Col di Finestre is very possible. The fact that the last part is gravel, It's basically everybody for themselves. You know, the speeds are lower and the drafting is not that much of an advantage. So it's gonna be everybody for themselves. Yeah, I guess the speeds are lower, but potentially the speed differentials are higher because if you're like, once you lose that momentum,

like do you go slower? I don't know. Well, I need to study this more. I don't quite. You know, it's not always the case, you know, this is different because it's steep, but not super. I mean, it's not a wall. Like, you know, if you look, for example, you see often, you know, like these super steep climbs, like, for example, you have a lot of times in the Vuelta a España.

It tends to be, Like for example, you have a lot of times in the Vuelta a España. It tends to be, there's not that much time difference because everybody goes at their own speed and even if you're getting dropped, you're only going 0.5 kilometers per hour slower. You're getting dropped obviously, but the time differences are not huge. You often see that time differences on climbs are higher or bigger when it's a climb where there's actually speed. Between seven and 9% are the climbs

where you can lose a lot of time, a lot more than when you're by yourself on a very steep climb. So tomorrow is a bit of both worlds on Colo di Finestre. And then you still have Sestriere in the end, you know, which is, which is, it looks not such a big deal, but is deceivingly hard at the end of a stage. Especially after you had this monster of a climb like Le Finestre. Yeah. I'm thinking about 2023 Giro d'Italia. Remember that final time trial, like insanely steep.

I forget the name of that climb. Apologies to that climb for forgetting your name. But Thomas, Garen Thomas and Primoz Wagich, their times actually weren't that different on the super steep section. And then it flattened out for a second. And then that's where the time differences blow up. Cause you're right.

You aren't pulling out massive gaps on walls that steep unless someone's going really slow. The Finestra, I'm looking at the profile right now, it's basically 9% the whole way, which is steep. 9% for an hour. The record is an hour. So that is going to give the advantage to the better climber. But a few questions for you today, a few questions for Johan about today's stage. This stage actually oddly reminded me of stage 19 of that 2023 year to tell you the trade shimi stage where everyone thought it would be fireworks and it was a stalemate. The Twitter class was not pleased that they were upset that no one's attacking

Del Toro. Why is nothing happening? Because if I'm going to be honest, outside of Prud'homme dropping everybody and that Carapaz attack, kind of nothing happened on the stage. The breakaway formation was interesting, but it was just so hard and the climbs were so steady and one after the other that it was just kind of riding hard on the front. Yeah. People who got tired were dropped and people were saying, oh, they're not attacking because the gradients aren't steep, which I kind of thought at first, but Carapaz goes and they get a gap immediately him and Del Toro. So that tells you it's the proof Spencer. They're dead. Everybody's dead.

You know, it's, it's, it's the end of the three weeks. Eh, I've said it many times. It's an accumulation of fatigue over the three weeks. And, uh, I think Michael stir said it perfectly. You know, uh, he was, I mean, I don't, did he finish with the first group? I don't remember. But anyway, he was there for a long time and he says, you know, well, yeah, I mean, what do you expect us to do? You know, we're all tired and to get away, what are you going to do on the last climb? Right. Seven Watts per kilo for 20 minutes.

Then nobody can do that anymore. After, after three weeks after three weeks. So it has nothing to do with the parkour or with the steepness of the climbs. It's just that everybody's very, very tired, which is logical. And today you could see again that those two riders, Carapaz and Del Toro, are just one level ahead of the rest of the favorites. Um, you know, everybody else was hanging on for dear life and trying to limit the damage. Uh, so if you're in a situation like this, there's only one guy who can attack. It's it's gotta pass.

It's the only one everybody else is just defending their position. That's, that's, that's as simple as that. Yeah. Also with it shows you how strong fruit home is because it's like, Oh, he's dangling out there cause they're not chasing and the attack comes and that Yates G group never really gets closer to him than when he crested the, uh, crested the Jew basically, like he, I think he maybe even extended his gap on the G Yates group from there.

So really strong writer. Do you gap on the G E eights group from there. So really strong rider. Do you think on the five or 6% paved climb, if everyone's dead, it's harder to pull out a gap than on a 9% gravel climb. What do you mean? Like today everyone's dead. I agree. I think they just looked dead. So no, no one can make a difference. Do you think we'll see the same thing tomorrow or the gravel and steepness

spread things out a little bit more? Well, yeah, obviously it is. And it's a one hour, one hour of climbing. Uh, as you say, 9% average. It's a long time. Uh, it's a very long time. Um, so yeah, we'll, we'll see. There's going to be, I think it's going to be carnage tomorrow on the Finestre. It's all or nothing, you know, especially because I think Carapaz has to attack. He will attack and he will attack several times.

There's only one rider who can follow him if he has the legs is del Toro and the rest will just try to defend whatever they have. They'll try to go as quick as possible to the top, but everybody at their own rhythm. You know, if it's in a one hour effort after such a long race, there's not much you can do than ride your own tempo. That's like, okay, this is my limit. If you try to follow and you go over your limit, you could lose whatever, three, four minutes easy on goal. The finesse. So just a few notes, I'm going to get out before we officially move on to tomorrow. Did you catch this interview? Hey,

did you catch the interview of the winner? Prud'homme? He was like, yeah, my legs didn't feel very good halfway through. It's like, well, they must've felt good at the end because you were flying, big ring in the cold as you and Simon Yates said, yeah, he was, he was getting better through, he was getting better through the stage. Uh, yeah, I, I, I heard him say that he didn't feel great. And then, uh, he followed a few moves. He started to feel better.

And at the end he felt great. So, uh, yeah, that was an interesting, interesting, uh, I mean, he tried his best in English. It was, it was painful. But he was, he was trying really hard. That's, it was admirable. I, I don't think I would have done the same thing in French, but maybe he was motivated by his 18 year old teammate calling him washed up and needing a win. So he just had that ringing in his ears all the time. Did he really say that? Did Seychelles really say that like that? Or is that just an interpretation of the interview?

I frankly have not heard the interview. Are we sure it was in English? Was it in French? I don't know. We're spreading false information potentially. But Simon Yates seemed upset. Did you see this? Or were you saying like, yeah, that wasn't the plan.

And we have to like talk about how to execute better tomorrow. And now I'm curious what the plan was other than. Yeah. Well, and then, and then I've seen, uh, the, the answer of the, of one of the sport directors, uh, Mark Reef, that's his name, not reef. Yeah. Yeah. Uh, he said completely the contrary. Uh, He contradicted Simon Yates. He said everything went to plan. We wanted to make the race hard. And, you know, it was just these two guys who were stronger than everybody else. And, but yeah, those were two contradictory interviews. Simon Yates on the one hand, not being happy and Riff confirming that they executed the plan as was foreseen in

the meeting. I kind of am on Mark Graves side there. That looked like plans. It looked like the plan went to plan, but there was two guys that were stronger than them. You know, I mean, I don't know. I mean, listen, you always have to be careful with what, what riders say straight after the finish. You know, they're dead, they're cross-eyed, they're disappointed.

You can't take it too much into account. I would think, because Visma has been pulling for a very long time, at least, I mean, that's the impression. I have seen a lot of yellow in front of the group of favorites. If that's not the plan, man, Simon, you're there. Just stop the guy. You know, like say it on the radio or stop it or, so yeah, I don't know what to make from that interview.

It's a bit strange. It's possible he meant like it didn't go to plan, meaning the plan was for me to drop everybody on probably with an attack. Maybe that's what he meant. Um, I don't think I have anything else on this stage to you. Um, no, no. Um, I mean, of course it's logical that we're seeing all the time the same writers, uh,

in front, uh, you know, I want to just highlight one, one, I mean, for his courage, because man, this guy has suffered today, Egan Bernal. He's been on the yo-yo in the back of that group. Like I say, okay, he's getting dropped now. Now he's getting dropped. He did not get dropped. He was suffering, suffering and just stayed there. And then finally made it to the finish with the, with, with the group of main favorites.

And this is six on the stage, which I thought I thought he was, I thought he was getting dropped. So yeah, it's almost like he's relearning. It's like a writer learning how to ride GC. You know, cause it's easy to sit up like when it's hard like that, but it's like, no learning how to ride GC, you know, cause it's easy to sit up like when it's hard like that, but it's like, no, you gotta stay in it. Like that's how GC works. And yeah, I mean, maybe he's getting back into a rhythm. Well, let me tell you, I mean, he's obviously listen, the Giro is catching up with him. He's tired. It's clear. He's, you know, he's dead. Uh,

and I just want to go back to a comment I made at the beginning of the race, And I just want to go back to a comment I made at the beginning of the race, the Giro asked Egan Bernal if the efforts of the first week don't count in the last week. He's feeling now is because he was looking great in the first week. Yeah. He attacked and attacked and was up there was second in a stage. He was second, right? I think he was third behind Del Toro, right? Yeah, exactly. Del Toro passed him. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, listen, the efforts are catching up with him. Tomorrow's a great stage for him, actually, but I don't know if he's fresh enough to do something spectacular and try to win the stage. I don't know.

What's this funny thing about this year, this year is it's because you're right. They're really tired, but you'd say, how are they tired? Like there was no mountain stages for the first two weeks, but because there was no mountain stages, it's almost like the racing was harder. It was like all out all the time. Yeah. The speeds. It's every day where it's a flat stage, a middle, a hilly stage or a mountain stage. It's from the gun. It, it every day, there's not been any quiet moments in this, in this Giro, uh, for,

not for the, of course not for the breakaway riders, but even for the Peloton. Was yesterday the first stage where the Peloton? I think so. Yeah. It might be. Yeah. Yeah. Normally you see that multiple times before this point in the race. So that, and also on, on Prud'homme winning, just if you're trying to predict winners in the future, you're thinking, wow, that came in on nowhere. But you look at it. He, before today, he'd been in three breakaways finished fifth, two fifths.

And so it's usually these riders, like the riders who get in these breakaways are the same riders we've seen. Like there's no new entries to the breakaways cause no one else has the legs to do it. Like what you see, what you get. If by, if by stage 1920, you've not been in a breakaway is because you're not riding very good

or you're a super domestique who's always on duty and are not allowed to go in breakaways, right? But like for the typical freelancers, I would call them, if you've not been in a break until stage 19, 20, it's because you're not gonna be in it in the second last stage either. That's one of the shocking things when you go to a race in person

and it's late in a grand tour. It's really crazy if you go early and then late and some of them look like zombies. Usually you realize they're just, they're just riding around. They came into anything. Yeah. So let's take a quick ad break and then we will predict tomorrow's stage 20. Everybody, this episode is brought to you by hims.

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with a healthcare provider who will determine if the prescription is appropriate. Restrictions apply, see website for full details and important safety information. All right, back to the show. Johan, tomorrow stage 20, it's not technically not the hardest stage of the race because today's stage 19 had more vertical meters.

The weird thing about tomorrow though is 205k's long finishes at Sestrier has the cold at a Finestra, which is an incredibly hard climb as we've been alluding to 9% average for about 18 kilometers. Half of that is unpaved gravel. You're going to have to put out about 1600 vam for an hour to go over the top with the front group. That's not easy to do at all. And but the weird thing about the stage is it's kind of rolling to flat for the first half and then all the vertical gain which is 4,700 meters I believe which is that's got to be close to 8,400. 4,400. 4,400. So that is in feet for Americans that's 15,000 feet, roughly.

That's all crammed into the back half of the race. And a lot of that is just cold at Finestra. It's also high altitude. Like it tops out at 20, around 2200 meters race finishes over 2000 meters. We're getting up there. We're above six, 7,000 feet at this point. That's the altitude will be a factor. And I forgot what I was going to say, but basically hard stage. Oh, and there's a time bonus in the middle of the gravel section of the fenestra. So if you're Richard Carapaz and you're trying to pull back 43 seconds

on Isaac del Toro, that could come into play. We don't know if it's going to be breakaway or GC all this stuff list off the favorites and you're going to tell us that but that's just something to think about. Richard Carapaz is the favorite at plus 200. Isaac del Toro plus 275. Derek G plus 1400. Giulio Pellizzari plus 1400. Lorenzo Fortunato plus 1600. Nicholas Prudhomme plus 2200. Simon Yates plus 2200. Wout Poles plus 2800 Antonio T. Berry plus 3300 Florian stork plus 3300. It goes on and on. We'll call them out if we need to. But Johan, is this GC or, or breakaway and who wins? Yeah, it's a difficult, difficult one. Um, if it's breakaway,

it's going to be guys that we've seen all the time in breakaways. Uh, so, um, I'm going to be guys that we've seen all the time in breakaways. So I'm going to divide my choice between a GC guy. Listen, logically, logically, if it's GC, it should be Richard Canapas. But I'm going to go for Isaac del Toro. Something tells me that he's, you know, he's in pink. He looked good today. There's only one wheel he has to, he has to look at this. That's the only thing easier said than done, you know, on a one hour climb, but man, he looked,

he looked pretty smooth today. And you know what? Carapaz is also getting tired. You know, I mean, he's a fighter, of course, and he keeps attacking. But after today, he was talking to some of the staff people there. And then I heard a little interview. He was dead. He was very, very tired today.

So, you know, it's also three weeks for him. He was dead. He was very, very tired today. Um, so, you know, it's also three weeks for him. Uh, so I'm going to go East, like Del Toro plus two 75 for the wind tomorrow. If he can survive the finesse, uh, I think on, uh, on Cestriere, he has this. It's all he's got to do. Just survive. It's, it's easy. One hour, one hour, one hour of 9%. 1600 VAM for an hour. And that's what that's insane.

It's like, welcome to the big leagues kid. I mean, I, you said, you said Spencer, you said, uh, the, the KOM is, is, is one hour. We've had a little discussion about that, uh but now I've looked here at Strava of this young rider, Pablo Torres, who won the stage on Colo di Finestre in the Tour de l'Avenir last year. Finally, he lost. I think he lost the Tour de l'Avenir with seven or eight seconds. He did 57.51 and I remember that back then they said that he beat the time of Chris Froome

of the Giro of 2018 where Chris Froome turned around the Giro by four minutes. So 57, 51 and 17.7 kilometers. So it looks like the, the, the other KOM is, what did you say 18 and a half kilometers? Yeah, there's like slight differences between the two segments and like the hand timed one for the full climb for public tours is an hour. So it's like roughly the same as the Strava one that you have. Okay. The four minutes fast.

Well, this is from his stra. This is from his Strava and uh, it's an official Strava segment and he is the KOM. Uh, he has the crown for, um, for that time. So anyways, um, get them in here. You ain't even another leader at this race. And yeah, he's, he's a big talent. He's a big talent. This young Spanish guy, we should mention that was the, it finished to top the climb.

And then the frume year was a, was in the middle of the stage. Yeah. So going to be a little slower, kind of an interesting thing. Ryder Hesedal, I guess, did this in 2015, like in the Iran and Fabio Aru group. Do you remember this? Where they almost put Contador to the sword on this climb. Ended up losing like two and a half minutes.

They did it three minutes slower than Torres. So slightly faster than Chris Froome. They must have been flying up there. That if you want to like, that would be the closest analog to this situation where you have a rider. You have to take. When Miguel, Mikel Landa was so strong in the Giro. Yeah. Yeah.

I think he was teammates with a Rue and they like pulled up the Benestra and then they attacked after pulling. They were, they were setting themselves up for an attack and then dropped Contador by quite a bit actually. And he, I think Contador maybe saved it on that climb to Cestri. The case for del Toro is after today, I thought, man, I don't know if anyone can drop this guy. Like he looks really good. And if he's going to win the overall, I mean,

unless we have some really close situation, probably the winner of the stage tomorrow wins the overall because that yeah, I think so. Buffers not big. Well, if it's not breakaway, if it's not breakaway, let's just like assume it's GC day amongst the GC guys. If Del Toro wants to win this race, he probably has to win the stage plus two 75. My concern is this, that is a big effort and he's bigger than Richard Carapaz. Like it's kind of sounds crazy cause he's not that big,

but he kind of looks muscular. He is like a muscular build on the bike. Carapaz is smaller. Also, if Carapaz is tired, you'd have to assume he's like Del Toro is tired as well. Right? Yeah. They're all tired. So if you have a tired young man, not experienced, I mean, this is extreme climbing. Like, this is ridiculous. An hour long, you'd rarely see this in professional cycling and he's tired.

Maybe it's the old head in me. I think I'm going to go with the experienced guy and go Richard Carapaz plus 200. Yeah, I think, I think that that makes sense, Spencer. Uh, you know, the logic thinking would say, okay, this is what's going to happen. Let's not forget Spencer, uh, 2018, the stage when Froome turned out turned around the Giro it went up Finestre then Sestriere and then another climb Who was second in that stage?

Richard Carapaz. So he knows the climb. He has good experience there. We know he's great at altitude also Yeah, which is something to consider. So Yeah, I'm, I'm not picking kind of pass because it's maybe we're always going between these two. Uh, and we're crushing it. We're right every day. So, yeah, well, but yeah, I mean, I think, I think logic would dictate that a car pass, um, wins the stage. And if it's not GC, I mean, this,

this actually is when it gets really hard. Yeah, that's difficult. I'm going to go with a guy we've seen in many, many breakaways, almost every stage, every mountain stage. He was in breakaways, Lorenzo Fortunato. You know, he has the KOM secured. He's in great form. He gifted the stage to his teammates, Caroni,

and he's gonna be there tomorrow. He has a super morale. He feels great in the blue jersey of King of the Mountains. And now that he doesn't need to get nervous for the points, uh, he, I think he will be in the break and, uh, he could win this stage. He's, he's in great form. Yeah, it's a good pick because it's wrapped up, I think mathematically. So he doesn't have to stress about it.

And he's just getting in a lot of breakaways that's half the battle. No, it's like you can pick Tom Pitcock, but if he's not going to make it in the breakaway, that doesn't really work for you. So he's getting a lot of breaks. Good climber. Best climber in the race, I guess, technically. So plus 1600, that's a decent pick. I'm going to go a little further of field here. Florian Stork plus 3300 sounds a little random,

but he has finished second on a stage, the stage to Osseago. Been in two breakaways since stage 15, which is a good sign. If I had to pick, if I really just had to go for a wild card, I would go with him because he checks the boxes of he's been getting them breakaways. We know he's strong enough to potentially win a stage since he was second. And I mean, you, I guess there's a lot of terrain for a breakaway to build up

of advantage because the first climb tops out, I guess the first, the cat four tops out 69 K into the stage, the cat two, which is like the first hard climb tops out 116 K into the stage. So a breakaway could build up quite a bit of time, but that's the advantage. The design of the stage tomorrow is definitely advantageous for a breakaway because they can build up a really nice gap. It depends. It really depends on what the mood is

between the favorites. And if Carapaz, mainly Carapaz, wants to go for the stage and the overall, maybe he thinks he go for the stage and the overall. So here's the team. I need the stage, uh, you know, and the bonifications, who knows? It's possible. Actually, I kind of wonder if, I mean, this is a, this is a bit of, I'm just creating a situation, so who knows, but I kind of wonder if, if del Toro loses us by a small margin, does UAE regret not pacing harder to try to win the stage today? Or is there just nothing they could have done?

I don't think, I don't think they could have caught Pridhom. I don't think so. Um, as soon as he got on top of Col de Joux and, uh and the way he rode on that last climb. No, I mean, he, he crested with, with a minute. So it was, you know, he was, he was going fast. Uh, there was, I don't think they could have reeled him in. I mean, it's, it's, I could be wrong. It's my opinion too, that Del Toro was right just to play it safe because the worst thing

you'd want to do is overext extend yourself alone with Carapaz. Like just sticking the guy's wheel for as long as you can. And you win this race. Like don't get, don't get fancy with it and try to maximize gains because the analytics analytics tell you to do that. But the GC right now, I'm just looking at Unibet favorite, Isaac del Toro minus one 18 Richard Carapaz plus 100. So you double your money with them.

Derek G 33, Simon Yates plus 3,300. So I don't think that those guys are going to win Del Toro or Carapaz. Who do you think wins this overall? I mean, you know, I picked Del Toro for the stage, so I have to pick him for the GZ also. It's kind of funny. I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's, you know, it's a bit against logic, but I would, uh, I would like Del Toro to see, see when this, this, it would be, it would be great for it's, I think it would be great for cycling to have a young guy from a big country like Mexico win the Giro would be amazing. Yeah, yeah, it would be. I mean, they, Mexico too would like it behind them because they don't have a lot of,

if you just think of like international sports stars, not a ton. Yeah. So I think there's a bit of work to be done there at the level, federation level. But this would definitely be something incredible for cycling in Mexico would be amazing. I did think if he was not 21 years old and we didn't know what to expect from him, if you saw a Magalha Rosa finish a stage like today, the way he did and have a lead one eight not minus one 18 is like shockingly good odds for the better

than that rider. Like if this was pretty much Roger, it should be minus 400. There would be no value in adding them. So it's like, and I do think he probably has to blow up. I mean, I don't know if I see him like losing 50 seconds to Carapaz. Like I think, I mean maybe, but it's like kind of what are the chances if he blows up, if he loses, it's going to be minutes. I think so too. Um, and you'd put that at probably 50% or less than 50% perhaps. So it's probably some value in embedding those

guys. I mean, if you, if you like Carapaz or the wind plus 100, still pretty good. I'm, and if he wins, you're going to be thinking, Oh man, I can't believe we didn't bet on carapaz could have doubled our money. What are we thinking? But it is a really, it's just an exciting end of the race. You know, I don't really know. I wouldn't be surprised at either outcome. Yeah. Yeah. Now we don't know. We don't know. And it's, yeah, it's going to be an interesting,

interesting stage to follow tomorrow. I mean, and no matter what happens, Ezek del Toro, an incredible ride. Like this is, you don't see this from 21 year olds that often. Yeah. Well, Johan, anything else before we take off? No, that's it. I'm watching the clock here. It's, uh, I have 20 minutes to get dinner. I'm in the south of Spain for races of my son in the weekend and the kitchen closes at 11. I mean, 11 at night, so it's late. I'm quickly going to have a bite to eat. We, we'll let you know. This will see each other tomorrow.

All right. And then and then we have our episode tomorrow and then the final episode will be on Monday, like a full the move episode. Yeah. OK. All right. Thanks. Bye. OK. Bye bye.