THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia Stage 4 Analysis & Stage 5 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Casper van Uden's surprise stage win in Lecce, which shocked the sprint favorites and breathed life back into Picnic-PostNL's season. They discuss how Van Uden's team set him up for the win, and a few key moments from the finale, before previewing Wednesday's Stage 5, an explosive stage with a tough uphill finish. They predict who will win, how the action will play out, and which riders present the best betting value. Join Cycling: THEMOVE listeners get 30 days for free. The link to access that free trial is here: https://join.cc/themove

You know, you know, because also if you know, well, Bonnard, he's a model teammate. And, you know, if he knows that he can win himself, which I think for not for the moment, he has decided for himself, OK, I need to improve physically because of after my illness. He would do everything he can to help a teammate. He would be there to be the last leadout guy. You know, I would be a finny and then wote and then

Olaf Koi. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that he would do it if he can. We just don't know if he can't do it physically or if he can do it mentally for the moment. Everybody, welcome back to the move plus Giro d'Italia edition. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are breaking down stage four that just wrapped up and then predicting tomorrow's

stage five. Stage four won by Kasper van Oden from Team Picnic Postanel. Probably not everyone's favorite. I mean, we didn't even mention him in our preview. Olaf Koi was second and, uh, Johan, I might need you. Do you know who, who got third? What is his, this person's name? This man's name? Um, Michael Zeilhart.

Michael Zeilhart on two. So three Dutch riders in the top three. Zeilhart, Zeilhart won the prologue, if I'm not mistaken, in the Romandy or yeah, or two or three. Yeah. Two of Romandy last year. You won the prologue. He is, um, I'm not sure, but he is related to, um, first I thought he was the son, but he's not. He has to say auntie to, uh, Leon team, Van Morsel, uh, multiple to the France winner, world champion, Olympic champion. So he, I think he's the son of the broader in law of, of her husband. Yes. I actually remember talking about this in our Romandy episode, not this last, not this year, but the year before. So Matt's Patterson fourth, um, gets points, which is significant for the points. Jersey battle.

While Ben Art does not finish in the points, I believe, but I'll just run through quick, quick recap of the episode. 135 K to go. There's an intermediate sprint for points and kind of interesting. An Alpecin teammate that's not Caden Groves goes through in second place behind the, the, the, uh, lone breakaway rider. And then coy was third, Pedersen fourth, 125 K to go. Matt's better sing crashes. So days already kind of going sideways there. And then 102 K to go kind of an interesting, it's this Red Bull kilometer.

It's this, I find it to be confusing. It's really just a Red Bull time sprint point is what they should call it. But the the rider in the breakaway, I should say this person's name because they spent all day out front. It is someone from Pulte. Pulte visit Malta. It's Francisco Munoz did, he did the Lord's work out there by himself, but 102 K to go. There's a time bonus sprint. Munoz goes through. He takes six seconds. There's a sprint from the Peloton that Roglic is going for, for the time bonus seconds. Second gets fourth. Third gets two.

Fourth gets zero. Isaac del Toro sprints up and gets the four seconds. Roglic gets the two, Ayuso gets zero and fourth. And it's like, well, at first I was like, well, I guess del Toro is trying to keep Roglic from getting the four. But if you really think about it,

Roglic now gets two seconds on Ayuso and the rest of the field. And Ayuso gets zero seconds on the rest of the field. So wouldn't they have been better off with Roglic just taking the four and del Toro giving the two to Aiuso so he could put time on everybody else. Yeah, you're right, Spencer. I mean, but it's not easy to calculate that.

You know what I think? I think the first objective was that Del Toro took away the four seconds from Roglic. So in terms of time difference between both of them, it's the same, right? If Roglic takes two zero, it's the same. Uh, just that I used to would take two seconds on, on everybody else, but, you know, in the big scheme of things, I don't think it's that big of a deal. Uh, but hey, it's another two seconds for Roglic. You know, he is, we know, we know how Primoz gets his time, time gains bit by bit, you

know, like patient with patiently and then bit by bit. So yeah, listen, he's obviously, he knows that the Giro is a calculation and that the time difference at the end are not very big usually. So yeah, he's, he's in a good way. Yeah. I mean the last year he won by was by 14 seconds. So he's out there hunting for every second, 53 K to go. There's another intermediate sprint, not for time, but for points. Coy gets second from the Peloton beats Patterson and Grubbs. So it's clearly motivated for this points Jersey, 21 K to go coming into town.

And what if we, it's not Leche, it's not Leche, it's Leche. Is it? Is it? I don't know. I think it's Leche. Let us know Italian listeners, please. It's in 21 K to go. I thought this was going to be, you know, one of these sleepy Giro stages where we come

in and we do a sprint. No, it's like a hotly contested because little do we know there's a massive compression with 19 K to go. So 21 K to go. Soren Crowe Anderson from little trick crashes, Mads Pedersen and the team was maybe was too far back. I didn't quite see where they were, but Mads Pedersen ends up in the back there, which is a bad place to be. They go into this extreme compression. The road basically goes from like two lanes to one lane. That was crazy.

That was crazy. If you see the helicopter view, it's, I mean, it looks very dangerous. Um, yeah, I mean, surprisingly nothing more happened, uh, especially because, you know, you have the nerves already of the final of the stage. And yeah, the, the, the way it got narrow, it was, uh, it was a bit too dangerous in my opinion. Yeah. I mean it like there was riders basically stopped while the front, you know, gets through cleanly.

And it was like so intense that Pedersen didn't get back to the front until seven K to go. You know, so it's like 12K of chasing. Giulio Ciccone was off the back, got a little help from maybe the commissary's car there, got back to the Peloton, no harm, no foul. 1.5K to go, Alpecin's on the front for Groves. And immediately I'm thinking, wow, they are going fast. Like they're going 65K an hour, just holding it.

That's 40 miles an hour for American listeners, not even in the sprint yet. And what's happening here is if you go back and watch it, like Pitnick Postenel is hiding in the group and they have time trail home it's on, which is also smart. If you're going 65 K an hour, sustaining speeds, they get inside of the final kilometer. Visma comes to the front, probably thinking, Oh perfect. We have one lead out rider. We have Olaf Koi. We're in great position. No, Pitnick Postenel kind of jumps them with their whole team with 500 meters to go.

It's just really twisty, like disorienting finish almost. It's not straightforward at all. And then Casper van Ouden, he launches first and I think it was just so fast. No one could get around him. Olaf Koi ends up in second. He was making up ground, but he just couldn't make it up fast enough. I mean, I would say the two things that stuck out, first of all, post-Tenelle, I mean, we've been, I think we were just talking on Sunday, right? About how they need points, that don't have enough points and they come back and win today. Probably not enough to hold off Astana, but we'll talk about

some like deeper implications of maybe they can salvage their next season if they score enough points here, but the time trial helmet's really smart with it that fast. And then also, Johan, are we seeing, like if sprints are this fast, is it like, is it even viable to try to come from behind? Like, should you just sprint first if you're going that fast? It's, you know, the speeds are higher and higher.

I mean, huge gears, we all know that, you know, at some point, I mean, there is a, you know, there is a debate about putting a limit on the gears, right? If I'm not mistaken, I think they want to do a test to prevent higher speeds. I mean, listen, sprints is different, but you know, I think the biggest danger of these huge gears that they're using now, somehow 58, 60s in enormous stages. It's completely different for a time-cross stage, but that means actually that they can keep pedaling in the downhills. And that's where the danger is, in my opinion. But anyways, on the flats also, sprints nowadays, they're 70k an hour.

Whereas before it was 62, 63, Now it's 70 or even more than that. So it's of course, it's very, very difficult to get out of the slipstream and go 75. You know, if there's a limit to everything. But listen, Van Uyden and Picnic Post-NL, they did a great job. They had their whole team, they came at the right moment. And I mean, well-deserved victory. And as you say, Spencer, the points are very necessary. Yesterday, I think yesterday they got passed by Astana passed by Astana in the top 18. Now they're back. I think stage win is 180 points, right? And on top of that, the Astana guy, Max Cantor, who was fifth today, got disqualified and relegated. Got a yellow card also. So those 180 points are pure points on Astana. So they're back.

They're back just on just one stage. So they need a good Giro and they need a good rest of the season to be safe, which I'm a bit worried about because we'll see what Bardet does in this Giro, right? I think if Bardet does a good GC, we know that Astana doesn't have anybody for GC, unless Scaroni pulls out a rabbit out of the hat. But I think honestly that Bardet is a better GC rider. And on top of that, I think it's his,

yeah, it is, it is his last ever grand tour of his career. Bardet finishes, he does the Dauphiné and then he will finish this when the career is over. He stops mid-season. So for the moment, I think he's just surfing the wheels and then trying to be up there and stay in contention for GC. It's an interesting battle. This points battle, we've talked about it already.

Kofidis is also in danger zone. Unox is coming up strong. Astana is doing everything they can to be in the top 18 and Picnic post-NL. So those four teams, in my opinion, or between those four is going to be the two spots because I think we can forget about Arkea. So yeah, in this Giro, we're going to have an eye on this every day. Also another races, and I think there is where probably picnic will have to probably change their strategy a bit because they're not doing that many races where they can score points,

you know, and so there's still time to change, but they should have thought about this before. Astana did. Astana has designed the calendar purely focused on points, knowing that the majority of the points they will score will not be in the high level races, which is the right strategy. I give you can go online and you can look at both teams remaining schedule and Astana's is like seven pages long. And then Picnic Post Senals is basically just the world tour schedule. So a problem right there, I don't know if they can,

maybe Astana like collapses in the second half of the season. Cause everyone's so tired from trying to get points and Roman, but today gets fourth at this race. But I just think on volume, they can't do this. But then the big question becomes, can they finish third? I believe next year that the UCI is expanding the top two, like for grand tours and one day races at the world tour level. It is now currently the top two pro teams from the year before automatically invited next year. I believe they're making it the top three. So let's say, I'm not, I mean, I, I'm not clear on that unless something has changed

I'm not, I mean, I'm not clear on that unless something has changed in the last few weeks. Normally it's the two first are invited to every single World Tour race and the third one is invited to all the one day races of the World Tour. There might be a change though, now that they have added a 2013 for this year. I think next year is back to 22 and probably maybe three, three invites. And I'm not sure about that. I haven't, I haven't followed the news on that. I think it, I think what my source was suggesting is that there might keep the 23 and then basically take a wild card away and allocate that to the third approach. I don't think any of this is like in set in stone. So that would be kind of,

yeah, I mean, we don't have to get into this now. It'd be kind of funny if they had 23 teams for this tour to France and then next year it's 22. It's like, so what was that about? Is that just cause you wanted to invite tutor to the Giro or what's going on? They can do whatever they want. They, you know, they change the rules whenever they want. So it's clear that this is at the request of ASO. And of course, you can't just give the 23rd team

to just the two or you have to do the same for the Vuelta and the Giro. Otherwise it would look even more ridiculous. But we've seen worse. We've seen worse. It makes me think now, Spencer, I mean, there's nothing to do with the Giro or I'm going way back, you know, but I remember, man.

I mean, if you think about this now, this is about the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen in terms of a rule change. There was one year, I don't remember the year, it was in the nineties, where they were also having trouble with inviting teams and they had, you know, they didn't know they had to take this team or this team. And there was, it was at the beginning of T-Mobile, it was still Telecom back then.

And you know what they did? They made a mixed team. There was two teams. I just was reading a book about this. It was Telecom and ZG Mobili, team. And there, so there was nine writers. So there was five writers from one team and four from the other team. They made it one team and they wrote with their own jerseys. They wrote, you know, they were one team. So we've seen, we've seen worse. We've seen crazier stuff than this. You know,

I love this. They should bring this back. This should be like worked into the points raised somehow. Basically long story short, they're like 800 points behind Tudor, which is probably going to be the second team. So it's not too late actually. And let's say it's expanded out to three. There are about 600 points behind Q36.5. The thing about Tudor and Q36.5, they're not going to rack up points at the same rate as Astana.

I would imagine Astana is currently the third best team in the, in the sport in terms of points. So it's not too late actually to salvage us. And today was a big win. Casper van Oden, you might be thinking, man, I've never heard of this guy. It's his first grand tour win, but he won the, probably my favorite race, Rundum Kolbe, just because I like the city. I remember I watched this and he beat Vinnie and Grimaille. This was last May. You know, that guy is pretty good.

And then it clearly, especially these Dutch. Who was, did you have results there of that race? Yeah. So it's Casper first. Who was third? Is this your nephew, Louis blue? Oh, exactly. Crazy. Whoa. I didn't know that. I must've missed that at the time. Crazy. Um,

so I mean, clear, like if you're a power, like you look at the guy, he's just like really powerful. So you line them up perfectly for a sprint early in a grand tour. He's 23 years old, probably doesn't have, I think this is the first grand tour he's ever. It's his first round tour. Yeah. Yeah. So if he's going to win a stage, it's going to be on an early stage just like this. But I think the key thing was like picnic just clearly dialed in. I mean, actually, I wonder if we might see more of this now, like let's wear time trail helmets because we're going real fast.

Listen, and the Giro, the Giro is known for these kinds of things, Spencer. There's always a few sprints where you have a guy winning. He said, where does this guy come from? Yeah, we were just talking about this. Uh, you know, we were about Dainese. Remember Dainese in the Giro? Yeah. Yeah. So obviously the, the, the, that was a big plan for today.

You could see also straight after the finish that Van Uden was pointing at the helmet. So he was very, very proud that they made that decision. Listen, it's you have to dare, you know, because these helmets are not comfortable. You know, it's it's it's a pure time trial helmet with the visor included. This not a lot of ventilation. It it's, it's not easy to ride with those things. Um, can you change helmets? No, right.

Cause you can't take your helmet off. I mean, I've seen them. I've seen people change helmets, but I think it's, and you better make sure that no commissary sees you. I think we're going to see teams like 10 K to go. They're just out. They're just maybe not 10 K to go, but let's say half price. Okay. That's, you know, change helmets or maybe just a sprinter, just the guy who needs to finish off the job.

You know, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's marginal, right? It's, it's very difficult at those speeds though. I mean, yes, but it's difficult to quantify. It's difficult to quantify what the gain is. Uh, there is a game that's for sure. Otherwise they wouldn't do it. It is. I, I was just thinking like, maybe, maybe I'm making this up, but I feel like sprints are getting closer and closer. And I think it was, it was Patrick Breaux from the Lantern Rouge podcast on stage one was saying, he's like, oh yeah, blowout wind, like half a wheel or a wheel length. And I remember thinking like, man, I think that used to be a close sprint, like a bike

showing someone a clean pair of wheels actually used to happen quite a bit. It almost feels like the margins are getting, we're getting used to like bike throws, separate. There is that. That's absolutely true Spencer. We're seeing a lot of photo finishes in the last two years, at least as far as I can remember. I've seen a lot of really close, close, close finishes where photo finish was needed to determine the winner. Yeah. So some interesting stuff in sprints happening. We don't have to dive into it here, but Casper in pretty good shape.

You might be wondering how did he get this fit before the Giro d'Italia? Well, great time to talk about our new partner, the JOIN cycling app. Maybe Casper's been in the app store checking this out and maybe this is what he's using to get faster. And I know I've been using the JOIN cycling app lately and honestly it's changed the way I train mainly due to my newsletter and podcast during the season. My schedule is all over the place. It's hard for me to map out a schedule and like a training schedule and follow it. And that is where JO join comes in because they can build a dynamic plan for you that changes after every workout you do.

So after every ride, whether you did great or you did not do great, you put, you put in what you did, or you can just sync it up with your grime and connect in the app adjust and recalibrates every workout based on how you did your fitness goals and how your fitness is tracking. It's like having a coach that you don't have to actually have a conversation with, which is nice. Cause it's like, you got, you do a terrible workout. You got to call your coach and talk about it. No one likes that. And that's what joining fixes. And it also,

I think this is not something I'm going to struggle with. And maybe at the moment or in the near future, but sometimes people, there's someone I'm thinking of right now, actually who probably trains too much to their detriment and join really range you in. Like it will tell you if you're training too much, if you're overtraining, how you can keep from doing that. So that's actually, I think one of the most important parts about having a coach is telling you not to over train and join will help you with that.

Their platform is super easy to use. If you're serious about getting faster, I would highly recommend it. And you're in luck because the move listeners get 30 days for free. All you have to do is go to join.cc slash the move that's joined at CC slash the move for 30 days free, or check it out in the show notes. Johan, I don't even know if I'm supposed to say this on air, but I think they're launching like a group stats feature. So we could, we could potentially move our yearly mileage competition over to join. If we, if we, where do we stand, where do we stand for the moment?

I haven't checked lately. I'm going to look at it. I guess you're still, you're still quite a bit ahead because you were, you were about a thousand kilometers ahead a while ago. I think I'm closing in a little bit, I would think, but I'm still behind you in terms of volume, right? I mean, I'm pretty sure you ride faster than me. For the people actually who asked us, because I saw some people in our comments questioning

Spencer's knowledge about cycling. He has been a competitive cyclist domestically in the US had some good results. So he absolutely knows what he's talking about just for the record because people have said, yeah, you know, Spencer doesn't know what he's talking about because he's never been a cyclist. He has been a cyclist and knows how to train. So I'm currently, right? Hopefully. Yeah. Yeah. I know a thing or two people. All right. So I'm currently 400 and this isn't going to help you at all. I'm 437 miles ahead of you. So that's like 700 K. Oh, that's too much. We need to change that. That needs to change.

Well, what's going to be, this is no one, no one cares about this at all, but what's going to be critical is the tour because how am I going to keep my mile? I've, we're staying at like on the top of a mountain. There's not a lot of great time to ride. I might have to commute to the studio and back. It's going to get tricky during the tour. You're on. That's when I'm most vulnerable. I think. Okay. I'm going to take advantage of that month to really win. Yeah. I would say,

I would circle that one on the old schedule for you, but any other, I mean we should, I, do you think these crashes, I mean, crash, crash singular and then disruptions multiple is going to affect Pedersen like going in later into this race or no? I don't think so. I mean, he looked okay today in the end. He was fourth, was up there. I mean, it's obviously bad news

about his teammates and Greg Anderson. You know, he looked really beat up when he crossed the finish line. In the meantime, we've seen the report from little track that he broke his wrist and is out of the race. So they're down one rider. Makes a difference when you have to control the race. And especially if you have to, you know, then keep as many possible guys together for the final to prepare the finish.

You know, we're going to talk a little bit about tomorrow's stage. But you know, if you have that one guy less, that means we're going to talk a little bit about tomorrow's stage, but you know, if you have that one guy less, that means that you have to use a guy earlier on that you would normally save a little for the final, uh, you know, seven riders and eight riders on a team makes a big difference. So they're going to feel that. Yeah. I mean, too bad for certain Craig Anderson, man.

I mean, he just comes back from an injury. I think his first trace back was the edge actually. Um, so he's, he's, you know, it's, yeah, it's a tough sport, man. Uh, you know, starting again, then doing the Giro, being on a team that's in the winning mood, obviously he was going to build his form and get better during the Giro. But now he's out again. That's, that's terrible. It's terrible. Also, you want to feel, do you remember he won two stages at two stages at the same tour de France? That was five years ago. Wow. I feel like that just happened. Oh my Lord.

On DSM, I believe. Yeah. He was on the, at the time. Yeah. Um, but yeah, I, I, that was my first thought. It's like this then cuts them down a rider for everything that they do. But I guess all the, that's why you, you press the gas pedal when you have the chance, like they had the hot hand and Albania. So win as many stages as you can before things start going bad. No matter what happens in this Giro, their Giro is a success already. And, uh, they still have, I mean, Mats is obviously going to go for the points jersey.

In my opinion, he's still going to win one or more stages. And they have Ciccone who wants to do well in GC. He's shown that he rides well. If it's not GC, maybe for the mountains Jersey, uh, he has done that in the tour already. So he could definitely do that in the Giro. So, um, yeah, they're not, track is not done. Little track is not done. Yeah.

The, the Chikone I'm, I'm curious to see what Chikone is going to do. Um, I don't know if I, now that I said he's not going to do well in GC, he's never finished out 10, someone did point out to me, an esteemed said, he's not going to do well in GC, he's never finished out 10. Someone did point out to me and esteemed journalists, Lionel Bernie, actually that he got 11th at the tour to France last year. So that actually is a pretty good result. So, you know, maybe, you know, maybe he could be up there in the GC, but we'll see, we'll see how it goes. I mean, any thoughts on the Visma lead out train,

most notably they did not have well than art. Yeah. No, there was no, there wasn't, there was no lead up training. the Visma lead out train, most notably they did not have wild and art in the, in the, there was no, there wasn't, there was no lead out training. There was one writer, it was the, and what do I feel? You know, uh, I feel he is, you know, he, he counts for two. Uh, but, uh, yeah, they missed one guy. Uh, well, it was not, not, not to be seen in the final of the race. Uh, we don't know if it's due to lack of form.

I mean, I think he will agree with me that he's not in top shape. We've seen a few times, you know, when it was really hard that he couldn't respond or he couldn't be where we expect him to be. Something also tells me, I mean, it looks like he's a bit... I don't know.

You know, after crashes and last year and bad luck, it looks a bit like he's not with the fire to be fighting there for everything. So I don't know if he's not don't want to take any risks or if he's scared to take risks. It's something we've seen already also in the first spring classics, right? He was having problems with positioning. At the time, I thought that it was because lack of legs, that he just didn't have the power. I'm starting to change my mind, Spencer, on this. I think there might be an issue with him not wanting or not being able to be taking any

risks anymore after so many crashes. It gets to you, you know, it's been a lot of, a lot of times. And at some point it gets to you and you, you, you see danger everywhere where before you just found it normal to be rubbing shoulders and pushing elbows. Um, so yeah, I think, uh, I think we need to, we need to, you know, have a good look at this. If Wout is for the moment moment not in a position where he he's struggling mentally to be in front because all these finals are you know it's a war zone. I keep saying it I've been criticized by people by certain journalists that you know that I call it

war but it is war. Anybody who says it's not war has never been on a bike in that position. But it looks to me like, well, doesn't want to be in the war for the moment. I mean, I can understand, you know, he's had a lot of mishaps. Yeah, I mean, the less said about my cycling career, the better. So if people think I don't know what I'm talking about, it's cause we don't need to talk about it.

Um, this is the completely mediocre cycling endeavor. But one thing I did notice today is like, yeah, I just had, I had this problem where I got so scared and crits. It's just, I could never be in the right place after a bad crash and like, wow, kind of remind, I could just see him today in the bunch. It's like, he's, he was always where it got, you know, technical in the finish, like always where it was hardest, like never where he needed to be. And it's like, Oh, I think I know like what's going on there. And, but what's funny,

I'm almost flipped on this because I remember at high end, I was thinking, Oh, this is a bad situation physically, you know, like he's not going to be ready physically. If you were saying, Oh, don't worry about it. And now I'm almost almost like, well, he's physically, at least before this sickness, I got that. He looked really good. Like think of Amstel gold getting fourth at Amstel, fourth at Roubaix. That's really hard to do.

So I almost now it's like, well, physically actually looks fantastic. It's just I am a little worried as you say about this. Yeah. You know, you know, because also if you know, well, von art, uh, he's a model teammate. Uh, and, and you know, if he knows that he can win himself, which I think for not, for the moment, he has decided for himself, okay, I need to improve physically because of after my illness, he would do everything he can to help a teammate. He would be there to be the last lead out

guy, you know, would be a fini and then vote and then Olaf Koi. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that he would do it if he can. We just don't know if he can't do it physically or if he can do it mentally for the moment. Yeah, I mean, I guess we'll see. Well, on that note, do you have anything else to say about stage four? I think that's about it. You know, it was, I mean, I would say a relatively easy stage for the whole peloton, except the high speeds at the end, which are crazy. I think the last 10 or 15 kilometers, they did over 55 kilometers average speed. So yeah, it may sound, it may look sometimes easy and relaxed, you know, seeing them all ride together, but man, the cruise speed of the Peloton is just so high

that it takes out of you. Even if it's physically not, uh, a challenging race, the fact that the speeds are so high, you have to fight for position. It takes stressful. The stress takes a lot of energy out of you too, you know? Yeah, yes, it does. I mean, obviously we're not all pro cyclists, so it's going to feel harder for us, but just go out after this episode, go out tonight and try to wind it up to 55 K an hour and hold that for as long as you can. It's that's really fast. I was shocked at the speed. Almost nobody can get up to 55 Spencer on the flats. If, if, you know, I mean, I can, I can out.

I mean, obviously they have a Peloton, I guess. So there's some benefit there, but those speeds blew me away. It's just like, I mean, it's, I think it's, it's worth trying for people. Just go on a slight downhill and go up to 55 kilometers an hour. You look and then, and then imagine you have to do this for 15 K on a flat road. Yeah. With people around you fighting, fighting you for wheels at that speed. And one thing you'll notice if you do ride that fast is aerodynamics. I'm not a big arrow guy at all.

Just like whatever, you should be in a wheel. Don't try like who needs to be arrow, you should be hiding. But you really start to notice like even your hand position on the bars. Like I do think arrow like we're moving into the aerodynamic optimization era of aerodynamics. Yeah. Aerodynamics is a huge, huge change in the last few years and it gets more and more important. You know, narrow handlebars, tight fitting clothing, time trial helmets, and then also

the position in the Peloton, you know, it's a lot, it's a lot different to be in, in the little ball. I always call it like a Peloton when it's, when it's, when it goes fast, there's a little head and then there's a little ball and then there's a long tail. Need to be that little ball, you know? Yep. So let's take a break for sponsors and then we'll talk about, we'll continue the Van Arck conversation when we try to predict tomorrow's stage. All right, Johan, tomorrow's stage, stage five, or maybe you're listening to this tomorrow.

Already on Wednesday, it's really interesting stage 151 kilometers. A lot of short or short earned the normal stages is at the, at the Giro. Like I think there's only three stages over 200 K normally there could be five or six or seven or eight. Um, it's, you know, it's kind of starts on a net downhill. Like it basically is a little climb descent, but the final 30 K is hard. There's a climb. This is about with 30 K to go. It's, we have some differing information,

but let's just say three K long at eight and a half percent. That's not easy. And then you have two unclassified climbs to finish the stage. You climb up to it's like a hillside town in Southern Italy, right? Matera. It's maybe like a famous town. So it's like a seven K long climb the first time up and then a little descent and then a shorter climb. I'm looking for my notes. I closed it.

The with like three K to go. There's a hard climb. It is 6.3 K long, 6.3 K long for a kilometer, little descent and then 2.6 K, sorry, 2.6% for the final kilometer. I don't know if it's 6.3% for a K is what I meant to say. So it's like climb, descent, and then Mads Pedersen-esque uphill sprint to the finish. I'll list off the odds on Univent

and then we'll talk about who's going to win. Mads Pedersen is the favorite at plus 165. I've never seen odds like this day after day. Caden Groves plus 1400, Tom Pitcock plus 1600, Corbin Strong plus 1600, Wout Van Aert plus 1600, Olaf Coy plus 2000, Primoz Roglic plus 2000, Orleas Alor, Alor plus 2200. Or a lot, or Lou or Louise.

Oh, his, that's like a tricky, that this guy changed his name just to give me problems. He's like del Toro plus 3300, Rick Plumers plus 3300. Christian's chronic plus 3300. And then somewhere in here, did I say it? Yeah. Primus, which is plus 2000. We don't need to mention everybody else, but some, but the book clearly thinks like reduced difficult sprint.

I'm not completely convinced, but how do you think this is going to play out and who's going to win? Johan? Yeah, I think it's a strong sprinter who's going to win. Um, the final is hard. Um, we finished here in 2020 for the last time. Arnold Amar won the stage. He was in great shape. I think he won three or four stages at Giro, plus the points jersey. But this final is harder, harder than when Amar won. Yeah, man. I mean, it's much better. It's much better in terrain. I think he's not going

to have any problems unless there's an attack of a few GC guys, which I don't expect. Or if they attack, it's going to come back. There's going to be enough interest for a guy like Pedersen with a strong little track team to make it back, even if he gets in trouble on that. And then I'm speaking about that three kilometer climb at eight and a half, nine percent. So yeah, Max Pedersen for the win, even what is it? Plus's, to me, it's clear. And then especially the last 1.2 kilometers, it's purely designed for Matt's Peterson. It's two and a half, 2.7%. That's his, that's his, that's his backyard. Yeah. When I first looked at the stage, like a week ago, I thought, oh, maybe

that's a GC day, but weren't we just talking on Sunday about meds, Pedersen climbing at Perry niece and how good he looked. I mean, this guy is like an unbelievable climber at the moment. So assuming he's not hurt from today, as you probably can get through these climbs and then, yeah, if he's there in the final kilometer, that's a perfect uphill sprint form. My issue is that price. Like, Holy smokes.

Plus 165. Like what, this is, I mean, maybe, maybe he wins and maybe this is, this line is correct, but I would go, I would start to shop down the list a little bit just on price pushing, pushing me out of that real estate market. But Tom Pigcock plus 1600 kind of sticks out to me as are we going to look back and say, Ooh, that was, plus 1600 kind of sticks out to me is, are we going to look back and say, Ooh, that was, that was kind of silly that he was that far down like price that that's like a wild card price. And you would have said, I don't know, a few years ago, you'd be like, well, this is a Tom Pidcock stage.

There's some climbing. He's a fast sprinter. We were just discussing before we recorded, he won Bourbon's appeal against well, then our in a sprint. And then maybe not the same. It's not the same thing also, but because, you know, I mean, Brabant's, the penalty as well, one art was a little group of fire for riders after a classic one day race, everybody's drained, you know, they're all dead. Uh, the more it's going to be, in my opinion, could be a reduced, you know,

I mean, we could call it bunch a reduced, you know, I mean, we could call it bunch print or, you know, I mean, it's probably going to be like, whatever it's, whenever it's 30, 40 riders, it's a bunch print, right? So in that case, Pitcock is this, you know, okay, he can do it, but normally I think there's always going to be at least one guy who's, who's faster than Tom, if not two or three. Are we sure it's going to be a bunch, but kind of difficult. You don't think a small group could get away? No, no, I don't think so.

I'm just saying, uh, there don't think so. Interesting. There's only one way. There's only one way that happens is if it's if little track runs out of guys. The thing is, you know, I think on this course, only with Vácek and Csíkoné, they can keep it together because the speed they have for the moment, these guys, it's going to be prevent any other attacks. Yeah. Well, if it's not a bunch print, I'm looking through Tom, I'm trying to find you're right.

But then, you know, if it's not a bunch print, it could be, it could be not a bunch print if a breakaway makes it. But I think that's difficult with the interest there is from a guy like Peterson and maybe some other riders who think they can sprint. I don't think Coy will make it. It's too hard for him. But other sprinters like Corbin Strong or Oris Olar, these guys can also have, but because at the end of the day, uh, they will probably also help at some point with some teammates because that's what they're there for to try to win a stage. And as I've said before, you know,

if, if these guys want to win a stage in the sprints, first they need to make sure that there's nobody ahead of the Peloton. That does tend to help. I mean, I was going to say, I was just, I was, I was doing a long winded lead in to say, well, if it is a bunch sprint, I would pick Corbin strong. Oh, okay. He looked pretty strong. What was that on stage three? Yeah. On Sunday, almost one. Yeah. He was strong. You can get over these climbs and And if it's not strong, it was very strong.

He is he, he's a Kiwi, right? I feel like we got in trouble for maybe miss saying his, I think he's New Zealand. Yeah. He's New Zealand. Yeah. He's kind of the budget. Pedersen. So Pedersen's plus one 65 and the favorite Corbin strong. If you're looking for someone really similar to Mads Pedersen, but way cheaper, that would be Corp and Strong. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, if I have to make a second choice, Spencer, I'm going to go for Kaden Groves. At some point, Kaden Groves is going to get in the sprint. He's also a strong uphill sprinter when the speeds are not super high. Yeah. He's plus 1400, which is a good price, I think for, for a rider like him. So my, that's going to be my second choice. And today, yeah, yes. He's a very good uphill, slow speed sprinter today. His, his lastly man peeled off at like 600 meters ago. Good luck, buddy. He's super fast people. Uh, and you have no lead out. But yeah,

I do think Corbin's or not Corbin, the King groves is a good pick. Something I want to ask you about Primoz Roglic plus six 50 for the podium. What do we think about that? Listen, this Primoz needs to sprint. I mean the sprint, he needs to fight for position to make sure that he's there because it's top 10, top 15. Because if you're a GC rider and it's a hard final with a two and a half, 3% drag in the last kilometer, you need to be careful that there's no gaps in front of you. Right. And it is dangerous. Between that and sprinting for the podium, that's a big difference.

Uh, no, I think there's guys who are going to be faster than, than, than Primoz. So I don't see him finishing in the top three. Yeah, that is the, because you need to take, you need to take risks, you know, even if it's, even if it's slightly uphill, you still need to take risks. If it would be 15, 20 riders, then yeah, but I think they're going to be more than that, more than, you know, for, they're going to be 40, 50 riders together. I mean, I was just having flashbacks to stage was at stage 16 of the 2022 Vuelta where, you know, who won that Mads Pedersen was that, I think that was

the stage where they had this tiny gap over the Peloton and Primos is going all over the place and the sprint and he crashes himself out. Yeah. Yeah. So maybe, maybe he will not try to repeat that and we'll hopefully be a little bit more, uh, more reserved. I mean, just while I have you here, while we're talking about him, what would constitute a successful Giro d'Italia for Q36.5 and Tom Pitcock? Is it winning one stage?

Is it? No, winning one stage is not enough. They need, they need more. They need multiple stages in my opinion. Everybody expects Q26.5 to win a stage with Pitcock or with somebody else. I mean, they have other writers. I mean, Matteo Moschetti, for example, is a, is a fast sprinter. He, you know, he's one of those guys that, yeah, you know, when, when,

when he's least expected, he could win a stage, you know? Yeah. Um, yeah. But, um, yeah, but that's, I mean, this winning a stage, first of all, it's, it's not easy. Not every, not every team is going to win a stage, that's for sure, right? Because the betters won already too. So there's already at least one or a few teams that are not gonna win a stage, even if even and then, you know,

the mountain stages is usually between three, four riders. So the GC favorites will probably win one or more stages. So the GC favorites will probably win one or more stages. So, um, but yeah, um, have they won the ground tour stage already? No, I don't think so. I don't think you did one time ever won a grand tour. Um, I guess not. I mean, I guess if you're counting the, there is a continuation of MTM, Quebec, then, well, yeah, no, no, but that's different. But cause the only other year they were also, I mean,

something I kind of want to put the numbers on too. This is, this is not totally relevant to tomorrow's stage, but everyone's always like, Oh, we're going to go in and we're going to try to get in breakaways and mountain stages and win. And you start to think about it. Like, I don't know how many of those are there because the man, there's actually not that many mountain stages that are run by breakaways anymore. This year was kind of a exception, but it's not that common. Actually. Yeah. Less and less, less and less. Yeah. All right.

Any more thoughts on stage five, Johan? Nope. That's it, Spencer. I'm quite, yeah, I'm quite excited for the stage. It's a good one. It's a good one. It's a good one. We don't know, you know, there's, there's different scenarios. We don't know if it's going to be a reduced bunch print. We don't know. I mean, battle between, although, you know, this climb, this climb with 30K to go, at least if you look at the profile, I think it's a lot harder than everybody expects. We could see people testing themselves against the others, see how they feel.

It's day five, so we start to get into multiple day fatigue, even if they had a rest day or transfer day, still it wears you out. So after five days, people start to feel the fatigue already a little bit. Yeah. Yeah. Are you sure about that? We don't need to get into that, but Well, I am sure other people, I mean, I, you know how much I like to sometimes debate on social media. There's a few people who are questioning my, my position on that, but, uh, yeah, cycling may have changed a lot. It has, but three weeks stage races is still three weeks, three weeks of racing,

and it's an accumulation of fatigue and every single effort you do, you better get a good benefit or you will pay the price. If it's not the day after, it's three days after. So it's a calculation. And it doesn't matter if it's easy at the start or if they have a rest day or it's, it's still, it's fatigue, fatigue on fatigue on fatigue. You can only know this really if you've done it yourself or if you've been numerous times

in the situation with riders. So, yeah, I, I stand by my words. Sometimes people who have done it themselves still don't. Like remember Pogacar was at 2023 Tour de France where he was like sprinting every, it was like the first week and a half. He was just sprinting everything in even with no time bonuses available.

It didn't have cost to them actually. Yeah. Yeah. So you're right. You do have to, that's a, that's a good rule to live stage racing life by. If you do an effort, you better get something out of it. And try not to let time go away without, without the other person putting effort. If you, if you do a big effort or a small effort, you will pay the price for this in the stages after.

Uh, it doesn't matter if you have a rest day or they give you time to recover. It, it adds up. Yes. I mean, I guess physically it has to, but I don't know, I don't know how this became up for debate, but it's, it's good to set the record straight. And we will talk about the stage tomorrow after the stage and then predict stage six. So thanks, Johan. We'll talk to you then. OK, thanks. Bye. Bye.