THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia Stage 7 Analysis & Stage 8 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 16, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down the Giro's first uphill finish and GC test, which was won by Juan Ayuso over his UAE teammate Isaac del Toro, with Egan Bernal and Primož Roglič coming in a few seconds later. They discuss what this display of strength from Ayuso tells us about the battle for the GC and what RedBull-Bora-hansgrohe's plan should be now that they have the leader's jersey, before previewing Saturday's Stage 8, predicting who will win, how the action will play out, and which riders present the best betting value.  

It's clear Ayuso is the leader. If nothing happens to Ayuso in terms of mechanical crash or illness, Ayuso is the number one leader of UAE from today on. If that was still a question mark, I think within the team they probably have decided that already. And so you know how things can change, right? Because we've said a few times, well, you know, UAE looked good. They were all together, but Ayuso was not there. When it really matters, he was there. And he won the stage, his first ground tour stage, by the way, it's his fourth ground tour. ["The Move Plus," by John Williams, playing on piano.]

Everybody, welcome back to The Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are breaking down stage seven of the Giro d'Italia, as well as predicting stage eight. Before I get Johan's thoughts on it, I'll just give you a quick primer. Juana Iso wins the first uphill finish of the Giro. Has a four second gap over his teammate Isaac del Toro with Egan Bernal coming in third, Primoz Roglic fourth, Julio Chacone in fifth. coming in third, Primoz Roglic fourth, Giulio Ciacone in fifth.

The stage started off hot on the first climb. There was multiple categorized climbs, but the biggest one was at the end. Red Bull kept the gap close. J Vine tried to get into the break. They pulled it back close enough that he sat up and dropped back to the Peloton. Things kinda held.

It was not the most exciting stage, mid-stage, I would say, but then Little Trek realized, hey, we could try to keep, or I guess keep the jersey by getting Vychek, Vychek, however we want to say that, please correct me. Please send me some notes, people, on how to say his name if you're a Trek listener. And they pulled it back so that it was close enough by the base of the final climb that the GC riders would contest the

stage. Ineos goes to the front then Bob Reign and then Imaniuso's UA team after being pretty patient up that final climb took it up when it got really steep in the last two and a half kilometers. Imaniuso then just explodes away from the group with a really really impressive surge wins the stage makes it look easy I I'm sure it wasn't del Toro's, Prince and Bernal is there and Roglic was there looking not his best, but not, not too bothered. Johan, what were your thoughts on this when it walking away from the stage? How do you feel about how this zero shape shaping up? Yeah. Well, first of all, it's, um, thank you for some of our Czech Republic listeners, uh,

who have been writing in the comments. It's so apparently it's Vácek. So V so you could probably see the easiest you could pronounce this would be V a D S E K Vácek, not Vácek. Like I said, uh, Vácek. Um, yeah,. Yeah, we better learn to pronounce his name because we're gonna talk a lot about this guy in this Giro and in the future. Yeah, I mean, my takeaway of the stage, I expected a bit more attacks on the last climb,

but at the same time, the last 2.8 kilometers were steep. And it was like everybody was checking out everybody else amongst the favorites. A steep climb like this after... I wouldn't say relatively easy because they went fast in the final. But it's always trying to find out who is strong, who is struggling a little bit. And also, riders want to have their confirmation for themselves of how good they are. Because it's not until you really put on the pressure and conditions in a race, in the final of a race that you know. So I guess that's what happened today. Relatively closed group of favorites, I would say, 15 riders, probably 15, 20 riders

until the last kilometer, then a few attacks. And yeah, I mean, as everybody was expecting, probably a surge of Primoz Roglic, which I mean, this is his terrain. This is his favorite kind of kind of finishes. But I'm going to assume that he also didn't have his super, super legs today. He was okay, but he didn't have the legs to put an attack and make it different. So I think what I really take away from today is the alertness of Juan Ayuso. He was waiting, waiting.

And then finally when he saw that Roglic was like 10 places back after an attack, I guess of Chikkonen or Bernal, I guess it was Bernal who had accelerated. Yeah, it was. It was kind of strung out. Roglic was 10, 12 places back. That's not a good sign. Uh, and, uh, when I used to kept looking back when he saw that Roglic was really like 10, 12 positions back, he went, um, he had one strong attack and

could keep it till the finish was impressive, uh, display of power. Of our use. So, uh, and I think, you know, for, for people who have been saying, Oh, you attack and could keep it till the finish was impressive display of power of Ayuso. And I think, you know, for people who have been saying, Oh, you know, Ayuso is not looking great and he's kind of, you know, not where he should be. Well, I guess the answer is there today. He basically recuperated the time he lost in the time trial, more or less, 10 seconds of modification, four seconds advantage

on Roglic. So he's now within two seconds of the lead, which is a great position to be in actually for Ayuso. He's strong, he has a strong team and they don't have the leader's jersey. So they don't have to carry the weight and responsibility of the race. And then also the collective strength of UAE is something that it's really came to the attention today. First and second in the stage, but also, you know, five guys dominantly present in the final of the race. And then finally, because Makhmulty is still up there also, no, and Adam Yates. So I think they have four guys in the top 15 in GC right now,

which is a great situation to be in after the first, let's say, GC stage or some kind of GC stage. Yeah, well, I should, I didn't say it, but Primoz Roglic took the overall lead and then Juanes is four seconds back. Isaac del Toro is nine seconds back. It's the crappy double. You lose the stage, you lose time and you get the race lead.

Probably not exactly what he wanted. I mean, you say McNulty, kind of curious what they're going to do with these guys. He lost 24 seconds on the stage. Adam Yates lost 14 seconds on the stage and that's real time. That's not even counting the time bonuses. I guess you keep them up there. Maybe you can use that later, but a hierarchy is clearly forming on UAE where it's, Ayuso the leader, as you say, you have pretty much even now the four seconds are two of those are from the time trial. And then two of those are bonification seconds. So has essentially pulled back Roglic is like Albanian,

um, advantage it's even now del Toro seems to be the second option on that team. If I was picking one, I think he's the little like, it was it a little weird when, well, we should say, you're right. So he, I used to accelerate. Roglic is very far back. I think I used to recognize that. Roglic actually recovers well, but I used to got just such a gap there, like with so much power that he then gets the advantage in the stage when he was probably always going to win that stage with that much power. Roglic recovered pretty well, kind of like a medium day, not great,

not terrible, but what did you make of del Toro? Because like, should he have been sprinting behind Ayuso? Is that not good or is that good? Cause then he's taking time bonuses away. Exactly. You know, he could say, well, you know, he, he sprints, so he kind of tightens the gap, but he does take away bonification sprints points from Roglic. So no, he didn't do anything wrong.

I think it was the way to do. Try to get the six seconds. And on top of that, Roglic didn't get the third either. So he didn't get any bonification. So I think it's... Yeah, it was okay. Del Toro looks really good, I have to say. He looks comfortable.

He looks, you know, he's in front all the time. Yeah. I don't expect him to be a big factor in the last week for GC, or at least not for the podium or potential winner. It's clear Ayuso is the leader. If nothing happens to Ayuso in terms of mechanical crash or illness, Ayuso is the number one leader of UAE from today on. If that was still a question mark, I think within the team, they probably have decided that already. And so how things can change, right? Because we've said we've said a few times, well, you know, UAE looked good. They were all together, but Ayuso was not there. When it really matters, he was

there and, and he won the stage. His first ground tour stage, by the way, it's his fourth ground tour. He did, I did two times the Vuelta, one time the tour where he abandoned and this is his fourth ground tour and his first ground tour stage. So I think that's an important win for him. Um, and you know, we all acknowledge, I think that, uh, he's one of the top talents, uh, still very young and, um, it's not going to be his, his last round tour stage that's for sure. It should be a reminder to people come into grand tours and say, yeah, I know a goal is stage wins.

And think how good one I use always. And this is his first stage win in a grand tour. Like it's not just, you can't just walk into a stage win at a grand tour. I actually honestly thought I used, or del Toro was going to win the stage with like 500 meters to go. I thought he looked incredible. We don't really know. I mean, it's such a question mark. He's 21 years old, second year pro. Why, what, how is he going to react to the third week? I have no idea. And UAE probably doesn't either. So keep him there. See what he does. You're right. I think the right way to go about this for, for UAE is, you know, no, no pressure, no expectations. Uh,

and he's going to surprise day after day. And finally, if he comes into a position where he has a GC spot to defend, he can do it as long as Ayuso doesn't need him or as long as Ayuso is the leader and Del Toro is at the service of Ayuso in case, you know, it's really necessary. But yeah, I think there should be no expectations on Del Toro at all. That's often how you, how these young guys perform the best and they surprise themselves day after day also. And just to, to wind back to the start, I have some questions for you.

See if you can school us, Johan. The J there, UAE was like really trying to get J vine in the breakaway. J vine was incredibly strong. It looked like he crashed yesterday. You can get fresh bandages on. So I think he did go down, but he was ripping up that first climb. Couldn't get away, goes over the top and just, it's that J vine. It doesn't look like he's going hard.

You know, it's like hands on the hoods, but just absolutely trucking. Red Bull's doing everything they can to keep the gap closed and not let him go. While this is happening, one of those back in the team car is like having the director put a jacket on him. I was, I was starting to get concerned about the team's organization at this point, like with this, he must know that J vine is going to attack to get in the breakaway and Red Bull is going to chase them. Like it's a really dangerous position because what happens if UAE is not at the front, J

vine's in the car is like, well, the jumps in this break and there's no one there to market right away. It was early. It was early in the stage probably. And, you know, and I mean, listen, Juan, you so must feel he has great legs. So he must have felt confident. Well, yeah. I mean, looking back, that must be exactly what it was. Wasn't worried about it. Right. Yeah. And then Red Bull keeps it really close. The gaps, the,

J Vine sits up really nice thing to do actually with it. It's a four or five second gap. He realizes that they're not going to let him go, sits up, break gets away. Red Bull holds it close and then starts to let it go. My silly brain thought, Oh, Roglic has said I can't win the stage because let it go guys. Let those stage, let those bonus seconds go up the road. And then little track comes to the front and pulls it back because they want the potential stage win and they maybe want to hold the Jersey.

And then that gets it close enough that the GC riders can test the stage. Tell me why that's wrong. Johan, why, why did they keep it so close? Well, um, first of all, we don't know if I, I, I have a hard time believing that Roglic, in the middle of the stage, would have said, okay, I'm not feeling great. I can't win the stage. Until you don't get to that last time, you really don't know because these guys are at 80%, 85% of their possibilities during the stage. So you don't know until you get to 90-95% if you can really win or not.

So in my opinion, it's a perfect way of saying, okay, we keep it close. We keep it close. And then by this means, we avoid having to pace the whole stage because if you keep it close, there's going to be other teams who all of a sudden see an opportunity to win the stage or to do to have any kind of interest in GC and that you're going to get help. If straight away, as the team of the leader or as the team of the big favorite in this case, because Roglic was not in pink today, but they wrote as if they were they are the favorites of the Giro. If you just let it go and you give them five, six, seven minutes and the stageway is gone, then you won't get any help at all. And with your team, you still have to pull all day, especially if it's a group of seven, eight riders in front, you'd have to put more than two riders

to keep that gap within four or five minutes. If you keep it close enough, you're gonna get help at some point because after half stage, another team is gonna say, okay, we still have a shot here to win this stage, so we're gonna help controlling. There we go. That's your school in us. And then on the topic of that's what I think. I mean, I may be wrong,

I think that's a pretty good theory actually. And then we were talking yesterday. You were saying, I'm curious to see who's going to set pace for UAE on the final climb. Well, we get to the final climb and we don't see that because Ineos says, we're going to set the pace. And then Bahrain says, we're going to set the pace. What do you make of that? Is that a mistake because it kind of lets UAE hold everyone back until later? Should people have put the pressure on UAE or is that a way to just say, we believe in our leader, we want to keep them well positioned. Let's, let's do this ourselves. Well, sometimes, you know, these teams, for example, uh,

you nails and Bahrain in this case, uh, you know, they have guys there, and that's their job, right? They, they can, they can do one or two kilometers at a hard pace. Uh, and they know they're not going to be, uh, in front, uh, in the final, uh, when, when, when really when really the big guys attack. So you may as well, you may as well have them do their job and set a tempo, which is, you know, the pace of your leader or the comfortable, semi-comfortable pace of your leader. Bernal and Tiberi and Caruso, rather than having UAE takeover, going one kilometer per hour faster and be on the limit. So I think personally, especially in NAOS, I like what they did,

because I think Bernal must have said, okay, I have great legs. I heard an interview after the stage of Bernal and Bernal thought that he could win today. So he must be feeling okay. I mean, he's third in the stage. So it's been a while since we've seen Egan Bernal in the top of a big race in the front. It's another positive takeaway from today. I think Bernal is going to do a great Giro actually. He needs his confidence. You know, he needs, he needs to get back in the, in the mix there. And today they start place was, was a good, a good proof of that.

Yeah. Well, you were talking about not seeing attacks on that final climb. The pace that they're holding, it was about 33 kilometers an hour before they got to the steep part. So a little hard to just noodle off the front at 20, what of 21 miles an hour on a climb, whatever that is. So I think they were probably about terminal velocity. It was a good climb from, from Bernal. I mean, he's a writer for talking about what we don't,

we don't know what to expect from someone like Del Toro. The thing with Bernal is I, I'm a little down on him in a GC sense because he loses time to the same riders and time trials as he does on the climbs, which isn't a great combination, but he can be really consistent in that third week. I watch him for the podium. What do you think about, I think this stage showed us,

Ayuso and Roglic are probably the two riders that are gonna fight for the win. But there is a little collection. We don't know yet. Well, okay, we don't know, but I think I'm confident. The Giro is a special race sponsor. You know, I mean, if you look at all the stages now, it's until stage... Okay, there's the time trial and there's the gravel stage.

But it's until stage 16 that we're going to see a big GC stage again. And then it's all concentrated in the last week. So it's really about saving energy, recovering as good as you can, being smart, right? Strategically. I'm going to start, I mean, after what I saw today, I'm going to start counting on Bernal for a podium candidate. I mean, I think podium is well within reach for Bernal, but, but in that last week, just to like nail down on that for a second. So like in 2016, that era,

like sure, like, Whoa, I can't believe Nibali came back from six minutes down. We've not seen that in recent years. So we've seen guys huddled together on these climbs. I actually think stage 10 decides the race as boring as that sounds. I think that time trial is going to be critical because I used to win Roglic probably put a lot of time into the rest of these guys. Well, yeah, I decide the race. I don't think so. Um, listen, if you just have one day in the last week that you're not feeling a hundred percent, man. It's, it's so hard. Yeah. But yeah, but top guys don't really have bad days anymore. That's the, I know, I know this is like, this is not, I'm not making

the race sound exciting, but like, think about Roglic is he really like, is certainly consistent, like winning grand tours by 14 seconds. Cause he just kind of sits there. You know, also looked okay today. I mean, not great, but okay. And I expected him to be worse. And it's the guy that we need to, we need to have in mind for the, for the three weeks and the last week, especially carapace. He crashed, he crashed yesterday. Uh, today, I mean, he lost a bit of time, not much, I think 12 seconds, 14 seconds or something or no, no, he was up there.

I think he was eight or nine. He was in the, probably in the same time. Yeah. He was on the same, same time as the Roglic group, the Bernal group, a downside of Carapaz is he loses time in the time trials. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. group. A downside of Carapaz is he loses time in the time trials.

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Doesn't make it up on the climb. So, and he won that Giro by getting, remember they were giving him like five minute blocks of it. He would just attack and no one would follow him, but that probably won't happen again. I would assume maybe it could. But it's not so long ago where he was in the lead and he lost it on the last mountain stage, you know, on the, on the Marmolada against Jay Hindley. Uh, he was second in, in, I was at 22, 2022. And that was 2022. Yeah.

That's actually a good example of a race that like, it was like, in a, it was crystallized almost like nothing changed. And then that final climb decided that race actually, I think that's going to be similar to this year. What do you think about Chikone, Giulio Chikone? He was strong. Um, his attack today was not, uh, um, I don't know what their, what their purpose was. It was hard to imagine that Chcone would have won this stage against N.I.

Iuso, Anne Roglic, Anne del Toro. He probably should have waited. And let's not forget, Vácek was still there you know, as long as Vácek was not dropped, he was going to be the new leader. It's Csikóna's attack who basically makes Vácek go backwards. I'm not saying that he would have stayed with the leaders, but he had the perfect excuse to wait and let somebody else attack and then try to counter attack. So I think that was a bit too optimistic and a bit too enthusiastic from Giacconi. But still, he's already shown he has good legs.

It's a bit uncertain if he can go for a top five in the GC. So the stage win is obviously the objective, the first objective, I think. And he tried, but I think he should have waited, especially with his teammate, a potential new leader of the Giro. I was like really almost like heartbroken by that because he looked so good, but let's close our eyes for a second. How is that successful? He attacks there and they just don't follow. I think he was going to win that out of a sprint or like how Ayuso did. Not attacking from a kilometer out.

Like, and then it's like they were just going to sit there and let him go. I think everyone was going about as hard as they could. And then it just didn't really seem like there was a room for a tactical game there. I thought he probably should have waited and then tried to win it the way I used to did in retrospect. Was he going to beat I use? So probably not. So, yeah, you don't know. I mean, he was, he was, uh, he was in the group with the four seconds. So you're close. You know, I mean, you don't know until you really give it all the last three, 400 meters. Uh, he's fifth in the stage. Um,

you can't say it's a bad result and he can't say he didn't have the legs. He was there, you know? I mean, those were bombs he was dropping. Those were hard attacks. It just, I, I don't know. I would have waited, I think, maybe just wait until the very end. Like why don't you so did that? Probably is a good strategy. What do you think about Antonio? I think, I think there was nobody else,

but I use who had the legs to make that difference today. Everybody else was, I mean, everybody was on the limit. Uh, and I also just had a little bit more, um, you know, um, yeah, Tiberi was good. I mean, I think he was there where he had to be. Didn't lose time. Could hang on, um, had his team, uh, set a good pace, a fast pace. Um, who was this? It's a Portuguese guy.

I think who, who said a really fast basis. What's the name? Uh, Lalia or something or, um, relatively unknown writer, unknown writer, but I've seen him do some really... Alfonso, Afonso, not Alfonso, Afonso Ularia, something. Yeah. I've seen him do some really nice things already. Already in Down Under, he was, I said, Oh, don't know this name.

And he wrote very strongly. So that was, that was, that was a really fast pace. Um, I mean, the pace that, uh, Barane sat and then he nails. I mean, nobody could attack. Nobody could attack. And yeah, I, I, I agree on that. I mean, how is, so what is red? Red Bull gets the Jersey because Roglic and I, I don't know if we talked about this, but yeah, Roger Roglic was a little far back,

probably played into it. I also think he just didn't have the best legs he's ever had. He was back because he didn't have the legs. It's as simple as that. I'm sure it's not, they didn't get surprised. You know, who put this climb here? It stretched out after a G Kona attack and then Bernal counter-attacked and, uh, you know, it wasn't packed up anymore and you could clearly see, I used to

looking back, he was surprised that Roglic was not there next to him. And that's when he went. So, um, I was, I was, uh, kind of surprised that Roglic was able to make a comeback. You would think normally once they go with, no, 900, 800 meters to go and you can't immediately respond normally that's it. You have to kind of try to damage, limit the damage and try to stay where you are. He was able to recuperate some places and some time, and finally only lose four seconds. So, uh, I think it's all in all, it's not a, it's not a bad day.

It's not a catastrophe, you know, for Roglic. Yeah. And if this sounds from people might be saying this, this seems familiar. I remember one of you so winning an uphill finish against Primoz Roglic, cause this happened on stage three of the Volta Catalunya this year. And it's actually really, I mean, I used to, I was stronger, didn't have the gap at that stage that he had today. Very strong today. But this is like, I would hesitate to fall into a trap of like, Oh,

Roglic just doesn't have it because he saw him after the stage. He was, the guy was not sweating it. That's for sure. Yeah. Yeah. Well, he's back in the league. So well on that note, he's in pink. What, like what's Red Bull, what do they do from here? Cause they are a man down and now they have the lead. Like, are they excited to be in pink? Are they not excited about it? It would have been better if UAE would have been in pink for them. excited about it? It would have been better if UAE would have been in pink for them.

But they are in pink, so they're probably not going to do it. But I would say try to get rid of pink. It's independently what's coming now. The gravel stage is a stage everybody needs to be in front of whether you're in pink or not. The time trial the day after is an important race, an important stage. But there is no real big GC stage until stage 16. So if somebody gets in pink and tries to defend it for 3-4 days, that would be great.

So I would say try to let the break go and let somebody else take the pink. Um, doesn't seem to happen anymore. Nowadays. It's very rare, very rare. Let's be clear. I don't think someone, someone listening to the show right now is thinking, well, guys, he just should have sat up today and let you, where you take the, Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no where you take the, Oh, no, no, no, no, no, you can't do that. No, no,

you can't lose time on a useful on purpose. Well, I mean, we don't know how this is going to shake out, but the four seconds between them could not be insignificant. You know, that, like this might come down to, I don't think, no, no, I don't think so. I don't know, man. Like there's been multiple grand tours recently, especially the Giro, like sub 50 second overall victories. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, yeah, we got to remember seconds. It's not four seconds. Well, okay. But four seconds is four seconds on four separate days. Like does,

they starts to add up a few. Yeah. Yeah. Like you couldn't just be like sitting up continually losing time because then that's, I mean, Roglic, he's won a state, he's won a grand tour by 14 seconds and then he won another grand tour, riding the course slower than the other rider because he picked up time bonuses where it matters. So the guy is like a master of fine. Was that against Carapaz de vuelta? Yeah, it was. It was, you'd maybe put an asterisk on that because it was not a three week race.

If you remember, it was like really a two and like two and change week race. Oh, was it the COVID, the COVID, uh, edition? Yeah, it was like 20% shorter than a normal Vuelta stage wise. But do we, do you have anything else to say about this stage or do you want to predict tomorrow? Um, about today, I think that's it. You know, we, we, uh, we, we don't really know much more. I think, uh, the time trial was a mental advantage for Primoz and today mental advantage for Ayuso and

they're almost even again so we're back to square one. Yeah I mean I've been getting a lot of complaints about how boring this race is but I actually think they've planned it pretty well. I don't think it's boring. I mean it's I don't think it's boring. It's you know even a stage like today it's it's, I don't think it's boring. It's, you know, even a stage like today, it's, it's entertaining. You don't know who's going to win until the last 500 meters. Uh, we don't know who's going to be in pink until they cross the finish line. Um, and we don't know what's going to be tomorrow.

I mean, we could go into stage 10 back to where we started the beginning of the race, which is pretty interesting between Roglic and Ayuso. I don't fully understand the second week that they have us. They basically have absolutely no GC action after that time trial. And I don't fully get that. Well, that's on paper, Spencer. Who knows? You know, it's still the riders who decide what's going to happen in the stages.

It's not always a big mountain stage that is decisive. Lots of things can happen. But I think when RCS does third weeks like this, it spooks people to the point where they're less aggressive because it's actually scary. And also this is the week that the teams that the, the, the teams who want to win stages from breakaways need to go full in because they know that once, once we're got to stage 16, we're in the high mountains and the chances are very slim for the vast majority of the riders to win a stage.

So it is this week here, this week, the week that we are going to have in front of us is the week where it needs to happen for a lot of riders and a lot of teams. Well let's take a quick break and then we will talk about the beginning of the breakaway phase on stage eight. All right, Johan, stage eight, tomorrow's stage, it is 197 kilometers. These are long transfers by the way. These cities are not close to each other and we're just starting at the coast and then we start climbing from there. We go straight up the spine of the boot, if you will, north.

There are four categorized climbs on the course. The big one right in the middle, cat one, 13 K long, 7.3% average. Then there's two more climbs, including a really difficult one about that tops out about 7 K from the finish. It's, it's classified as a cat four. It's less than a kilometer long, but it is very steep. I think that will probably decide the stage. I'll list off the favorites on bet 365 and then you'll tell us who's going to win and how this is going to play out. Tom pitcock is the favorite at plus 900

Matthias Vodsek, viceisek, Vodsek. I'll get this at some point. Vodsek is second at plus 900, I guess first, tied for first plus 900. J Vine plus 1,400, Eduardo Zambini plus 1,600, Mads Pedersen plus 1,600, Primus Roglic plus 1,800, Isaac Del Toro plus 1,800, Pellabelle Bow plus 2,800, Marco Frigo plus 2,800, Juana Uso plus 1800, Pelo Bill Bow plus 2800, Marco Frigo plus 2800, Juana Uso plus 3300,

Giulio Cicconi plus 3300, Roman Barde plus 3300. I won't keep reading them, but there's many more. But how do you think this is going to play out, Johan? Breakaway or, or not sprint, but Breakaway or GC or? Yeah, no GC. I think it's going to be a Breakaway. Yeah, no GC. I think it's going to be a breakaway day. It's hard. 3,700 meters of vertical. So it's a hard stage. him to get in the break, to get the pink jersey. He's still up there. He's not a threat for the final GC. And also if he's in the, I mean, I think tomorrow if Vácek decides that he has to be in the break, he's going to be in the break. His legs are that good. He's that good for the moment. So if he gets in there and UAE and Red Bull decide that it's okay, then I think he's going to win this. I mean, yeah, I think, you know,

one, we, we have to, we have to pay attention on if he's in the state, if he's in the break, he will have to do the majority of the work to get, to keep the difference and go for pink. But I think he's that good that he can actually do both for the moment in this first week. So, um, plus 900 Mattias Vazek for the win. The thing I really like about him, other than the fact that he may be as the strongest writer at this race and

probably won't be bothered by these climbs is the fact that Red Bull will want him to take the Jersey because if Sophie's in the break, they're not going to pull it back. I do worry that he could be a little, like it's just so obvious, they see a little marked. I mean, you know how this can be. We've just seen it a thousand times. The favorite gets a marked out of the break. Everyone's following them.

If that happens, we haven't thought about this guy since the last year to tell you. He comes out once a year. He comes out of hibernation. Marco Frigo plus 2800. It's this is Frigo time. That would be my pick, especially at that price. I like him a lot. Yeah. He's a, he's a breakaway specialist. He's in pretty good shape. He won a stage tour of the Alps from a breakaway. He did a long ride by himself. I remember really, really long, like 50, 60 K on his own.

Um, I think it was 80 K on his own. Oh, yeah. Okay. Well, even, even better. Yeah. Through like a mountainous stage. Yeah. So, I mean, the thing with these guys is that, you know, they are known within the Peloton. So lots of people are looking at these guys and say, okay, if this guy goes, I have to be in there also. Uh, but I this, what is he plus, plus 2,800. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. That's a good, that's a good price.

Yeah. I like that. And if you real free go heads will remember he is the rider that finished second behind Ben O'Connor when Ben O'Connor won the stage and took the lead at the wealth of last year. Yeah. He's kind of like the forest gump of breakaways. He's, if you split closely, he's in every consequential breakaway. Do you have a wild card pick? Well, it's difficult.

It's difficult to, uh, to pick a second one. I mean, especially as I think it will be breakaway. So, uh, you know, these are two obvious names. I'm just going to go, uh, you know, I'm just going to risk it and say, for some reason, the break doesn't stick and Mats Pedersen wins. It's a hard stage, but I think it's something that Pedersen could potentially make it to the finish. If the breakaway doesn't go and Pedersen can hang on, there's not going to be a lot of other sprinters, almost none, who can do this 3,700 meters. And we've seen already what he can do this year uphill.

You could say, well, he was in the crash. He's a hurt a bit. Uh, today he was definitely 100% at the surface of the team and at the service of VATSEC. Um, so that could be another, another scenario tomorrow, but, uh, just because I have to pick another one, Matt Spetherson. I don't hate it actually. I mean, I think he could definitely win it from the Pel mean, I think he could definitely win it from the Peloton. I think he could win it from the breakaway. If I don't, I wouldn't rule him out getting

the, yeah, well he could win it from the breakaway if Váczek is not with him. That's another scenario that you could think of two little freck guys in the break. I think we might see that actually. And then it's just a question of who works for whom. It gets a little tricky cause I'll probably want to pay Vodzak back, but you never know what happens in these rooms. Sometimes you have to make decisions. Sometimes one of you attacks. And I mean, that's, we see that all the time, right? Someone attacks Vodzak sitting there, everyone's sitting on his wheel and then no one chases down Pedersen. Pedersen wins. It. Not impossible that happens.

I'm going to go, I'm inverting. My wild card is, is higher up than my first pick. Eduardo Zambonini, this guy, he finished, he's, you, cause you remember them from the stage, what was that stage five sprint where he nearly beat Mads Patterson was flying up the inside line. Very good small group sprinter, but also he is like, he got second in a Valtes Panas stage, a mountain stage to Louie Menchies back in 2022, I believe. So he can climb. He is like a very good breakaway rider and is obviously quick. So I'm going to go him and on and on form the most important part. Yeah. And what price? Plus 1600. So actually'm going to go him and on, and on form the most important part. Yeah. And what price?

Plus 1600. So actually lower than free go. Yeah. Other people noticed. Well, let's see tomorrow, Spencer. And we don't think GC correct. No, I don't think GC, no. Well, we had a hard day today and then stage nine is very important. I don't necessarily know if it's going to be GC stage. Well, we had a hard day today and then stage nine is very important. I don't, I don't necessarily know if it's going to be GC, but people will be, what we'll be focused on that. And then stage 10, right after the rest day, very important to the GC.

So this would be a natural kind of let the foot off the gas stage. As, as much as possible, but you know, 3,700 meters, it's, it's a lot of climbing to have an easy day, you know, it,700 meters. It's, it's a lot of climbing to have an easy day. You know, it's going to be hard. If you look at the profile, if you look at the profile, it's, this is hard, really hard stage. Now, I don't know if you noticed like today, David Godue and Roman Mardet crashed. It was like on a climb in the middle of the Peloton went down and looked pretty dinged up. So it's like, just shows you have to be really like vigilant.

Even if you were cruising a long going 350 Watts on a climb, which is like zone two for some of these guys, you still have to like make sure you're at the front. You can't fall asleep because right there, like you could be hurt. It could change the race. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. All right, Johan. Well we will be back tomorrow for state to talk about stage eight, predict stage nine. You'll be at the Yon-O-Rick Grand Finale. I'm traveling tomorrow morning early to Germany. And yeah,

I guess tomorrow evening there's a dinner event and then Sunday morning, a group ride where I'll be, I mean, I'm driving my bike. No, no, no, no, absolutely not. Absolutely not. But I'll ride. I'll ride in the black forest on Sunday. Beautiful area. Yeah. It'll be fun. And then you guys will be, we'll have a move with Lance, you and George on Sunday. This show will not happen on Sunday and then we'll be back on Monday to predict. Yeah. Okay. Well, thank you and we'll be back on Monday to predict. Stay tuned.

Yeah. Okay. Well, thank you. And we'll talk soon. Okay. Bye.