THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia Stage 8 Analysis & Stage 9 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 17, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin discuss today's stage of the Giro d'Italia, which Jayco-AlUla's Luke Plapp won with a long-range breakaway and saw Primož Roglič intentionally cede the race lead to XDS-Astana's Diego Ulissi. They discuss Plapp's impressive win, what this means for his career in the future, and what to make of UAE and Ayuso's aggressive riding during the stage, before previewing Sunday's critical Stage 9, which takes the peloton over the white gravel roads of Tuscany to finish in the Piazza del Campo. They predict who will win, how the action will play out, and which riders present the best betting value.

I would say the win for Ayuso is another one more mentally than the time gap. It's only one second, but again, he gets a little bit of time, not much, but it's time on Roglic. And if Roglic has really good legs and he's in good position, he would never let that happen. So it's a bit of a mental victory of UAE over Red Bull and of Ayuso over Roglic, but it doesn't have a big impact on what's to come. Hey everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin.

I'm here with Johan Bernil. We are breaking down stage eight of the Giro d'Italia, which was won by Luke Plapp with Wilco Kelderman in second, Diego Ulissisi in third. Ullisi took the overall lead from Primoz Roglic or was gifted it. However, you want to look at it with Lorenzo Fortunato as ex the S-List on a teammate moving into second. And then Roglic now 17 seconds back. And then we'll preview tomorrow's critical stage nine and we'll get Johan's take on how it's going to play out,

who's going to win and how it will affect the GC. First, I'm going to give us a little primer. Johan was busy today at the Janurik, the preamble to the Janurik Cycling Festival tomorrow in the Black Forest, so he didn't really catch a lot of the stage. So I will, I will catch him up on the key details. Then we'll talk, I have a few questions for him about why, about what happened and then why it happened. But the stage started, this was probably the hardest stage of the race so far, just because the brake, it's 197 kilometer long stage. The brake doesn't go until about 110K to go. So it's almost the 90 kilometer fight for the breakaway, which is brutal because they're going all out

that entire time. Interestingly, Mads Pedersen, one of the first riders out the front, puts a really impressive turn of work in until the first sprint at 147K to go. And then while this is happening, it's the washing machine effect behind. Riders are attacking, riders are getting pulled in. Wow, Van Aert was quite active. Pedersen picks up Max points at that sprint point, sits up, and the issue is all these moves are going, but if you're a team like Pulte, visit Malta, if you're not in the break, you're not allowed on the team

bus. So all these moves are just going to get pulled back. Everyone knows Roglic wants to give the Jersey up so they know the breakaway is going to have a chance to stay away. It was almost like a lot of the tension of the race so far was being unleashed because the breakaway riders were thinking now's the time, now's the time. Big break finally goes with about 110k to go. Luke Platt bridges up a little late and that proved to be the winning move of the race. There was two, Visma was quite active, two Visma riders, Dillon Van Barrel,

pushing the pace pretty hard. The problem is the break went and then they hit the hardest climb of the day. two Visma is quite active, two Visma riders, Dylan Van Barrel pushing the pace pretty hard. The problem is the brake went and then they hit the hardest climb of the day. It was like a 13 kilometer long climb right in the middle of the stage. Dylan Van Barrel says this group's too big, they're never going to work together. So he's trying to break it up on the climb. Wilco Kelderman eventually ends up in the front split of that breakaway. They, Visma probably feels pretty good about it. Unfortunately, Luke Platt bridges up to that move and then Luke Platt attacks. And it was impressive. He was in a massive gear, just like he was 45.6 K to go, I believe. And he soloed from there.

It was really an impressive move. Like he looked to me, if you told me like that guy's going to win a grand tour someday, I'm not saying he's, he is is but I would say that that sounds about right he looked that strong because he held off a chasing group which was motivated because Wilco Kelterman was behind him with Diego Ullisi who was riding for the overall lead because his teammate Lorenzo Fortunato was with him at one point and he was the highest on the GC in the breakaway two and a half minutes back on the race lead the problem is Fortunato's dropped.

And then Olesi became the leader, the leader on the road or the virtual leader. So Olesi is working with Kelderman cause he wants the pink Jersey. They still can't pull in Platt. Platt wins by with the 38 second gap. Kelderman and then Olesi were in that group. Very strangely strangely Igor Arrieta from UAE fourth, a minute and 22 back. And then kind of things kept interesting things kept being doled out to us because UAE takes the front,

probably to try to keep Red Bull in the Jersey, they're pressing the pace on some of the final climbs. Tom Pickock is attacking with Wanauso on the last climb back in the GC group and then Wanauso attacks into the finish line. He ends up getting one second on Roglic who looked probably should have been right on his wheel. He looked quite easy pulling back to Iuso. Doesn't quite get back to him.

But the end effect is Red Bull does not get the gap they wanted, I assume, because now they're only 17 seconds out of the race lead. They'll probably just have it back. I guess if everything goes well in the time trial, that can't be exactly what they wanted out of the stage. But Johan, before we get into like any of the, I guess, the moves within moves, the wheels within wheels, like what was your take on Luke Platt winning the stage? He's super talented rider. Shockingly, this was not only his first world tour stage win, it was only his second win in his career outside of Australian national championships.

So it's been a long time coming for him. Very good rider. Like, yeah, I know it gets overused, but he's a classy rider. He looked very, very good off the front. I still can't believe he stayed away so easily. Yeah. Well, first of all, Spencer, apologies to you and to our viewers and our listeners. I haven't been able to watch the stage,

but thank you for just bringing me up to speed with the play by play of events. So, I mean, I have a pretty good idea now of how the stage developed. Luke Plopp, great win. As you say, I think Big Sky has a huge engine. His lack of winning races in Europe for the moment, I have heard that he has some issues riding in the Peloton. His background, he's a track rider, and especially individual pursuit and team pursuit. You know, he's able to push, you know, great watts,

multiple Australian champion time trial on the road. We all know that Luke Plop is considered to be one of the big engines of the Peloton and strangely enough hasn't won a lot of races outside of Australia. He's been a few times close. I've seen him already a few times in the Giro precisely to be in second, third, was beaten by usually a smarter guy. I wouldn't say a stronger guy by usually a smarter guy. I wouldn't say a stronger guy, but a smarter guy. And today was a display of power. As you mentioned, he bridged up to the break

when everybody else was out of legs. And then he goes with considerable, I mean like 48 kilometers to go. That's very far from the finish to go from already a select group. I did see a flash of his attack on that climb. As you say, massive gears, big power. But it was clear that at that moment, I think he already dropped Bardet, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah. To drop Barde on a climb, you have to be good legs,

even if Barde is not at his best for the moment. But when he went, it was clear that everybody was dead. They all tried, nobody could follow him. Even Kalderman couldn't follow him, who was, in my opinion, the guy that Wismar had put forward to try to win the stage. And Kelderman is a very good rider. So it's nice to see Luc Plopp win a big race like this, especially if you consider, if I'm not mistaken, he's been dealing with quite a bit of injuries. And especially this year, he was in good shape as usual in tour down under. It was fifth, sixth or something. And then for some reason he had a crash, injured his wrist. I don't know if it was a fracture

or but he already had problems with his wrists before the year before. I seem to remember somewhere that he had to have some kind of surgery to correct either this injury or an old injury. And he came in to the game quite late. Then he won a stage in Greece in a smaller race. But for some reason he couldn't really continue on that form. He had a bit of a disaster of a start because he crashed in the time trial on his own. He's a time trial specialist and I know that he went into that time trial with big ambitions

to do a top result. He crashed, had to recover from that. And now finally, after a week of racing, he gets that nice win. It was also nice to see him really speak very highly of Matt White, who, as we know, has left the team all of a sudden about a week ago, just before the Giro. I think Matt White was supposed to be at the Giro as the head DS. And Luke Plopp was very, very speaking very highly of Matt. His support he had from the beginning when he went to the Australian team and now in the last year and a half when he had some struggles. So that was nice to see. I mean, as we all know, Matt White is one of my ex writers on

Postal and yeah, I wish him all the best in the future after this surprising change of situation. But it was nice to see one of the top writers of Jake Walula appraise Matt White and his impact and his influence he had on the team. But yeah, I mean, it was in the makings for a few years already, you know, this stage win in a ground tour with Luke Plopp and now finally he gets it in a very spectacular way because attacks from so far, not a lot of people can do that. Yeah, no, he made it look like a tap in too. But I was thinking when he attacked, I just, I told my family, I was like, well, race is over, like he's got it. But then if you think about it,

like 50 K after a race that hard, that's not easy. Crazy fact about Luke Platt. He's 24 years old. I mean, I've never seen a Palm areas like this. He's 24. He had not won a professional race. Like if we don't count national championships as a professional race, he had won one until this year, but he had three career Australian road titles, which is a very good cycling country and three career individual time trial titles from Australia. So that's really impressive. And just like, I mean, to sum up the good and the bad of Luke Plap,

I think it was last year at Milano San Remo, I think he entered the Poggio. He entered Chepressa, maybe the last wheel obviously dropped, right? Cause you can't, that's such a technical climb. You have to be placed well, catches back on before the Poggio and then his last wheel. And then I, he gets dropped, but it's just like to be the last wheel on those climbs coming down the road. I mean, you're putting out like race winning power to do that. And then he showed today he does have that race winning power. I mean,

I feel a little bad like Vismic clearly had a plan. Like they did everything, right? But nothing they could have done would have won in the stage because Luke Platt was just that strong. Like they did as well as they could. Kelly Platt would have missed the move. Kelderman would have won, but Luke Platt just too strong. Great. It's great for the team.

Yeah. It was a little bittersweet about the Matt White situation. I felt like that. Yeah. You know, I mean, also, I mean, speaking of Luke Plopp, I think if you would take a closer look at his results on the track in individual pursuit and stuff, uh, and, and see the times he has produced there, that's the real proof of his big engine. Uh, he's, he's, he's, he's been a super, super powerful velodrome track rider.

Yeah. I mean, if a guy like that, if things are right for once and they have a good day, then they go and just doesn't look back and did 48 kilometers. So that's basically, yeah, 48. So 48 kilometers. So that's basically, yeah. 12, 12 individual pursuits after each other of four kilometers. Yeah. Just stack 12 IPs. Actually kind of reminds me a little bit of our colleague, Bradley Wiggins, just that type of pure track power unleashed on the road. I don't know if he'll go on to the same success, but just a few odds and ends. Mads Pedersen after today, he has 153 points in the points classification. Second place is 59. So he's almost wrapped it up as long as he stays in this race and stays healthy.

He will win the points Jersey. KOM a little bit. Lorenzo Fortunato continues to add. He has 98. Wana Yuso 50 in second place. So it's not, the book is not closed on that. Ayuso has more points actually than I would expect at this point, but just have that be our transition to go back to the GC group further down the road. I mean, if I'm going to be honest, we didn't see it. We didn't see as much of it.

Maybe I should have had the multi-camera view on, but we saw a lot of the breakaway. The GC group, they had Jens Voigt call, I think he like called Ralph Dank mid-stage and asked him if they're trying to give the jersey away. Ralph Dank confirmed, yes, they are trying to give the jersey away, but they almost, it got complicated because I think they wanted to give it to Fortunato. They had it, it was almost a six-minute gap at a certain point, but Fortunato. They had it, it was almost a six minute gap at a certain point, but Fortunato gets dropped from the front group in the breakaway and is minutes behind the front group. So at a certain point it was touch and go about whether they were going to be

able to successfully give the Jersey away. It's at a certain point, it looked like they were going to give it to Fortunato and Fortunato would hold it through the time trial, which would have been ideal because then you don't have it for that monotonous second week. But then Bahrain, I think they start to think, Hmm, Red Bull might not get rid of this. They go start going to the front, setting a little pace back in the, in the GC group. And then UAE comes to the front setting a pace, complicates it. And then they only have it by 17.

They only have given it away by 17 seconds. If you were a director here, Johan, like what would your plan have been going into this and would you be happy? That's not a great situation. You know, you lose it, but it's as if you haven't lost it. Because with the two stages now, I mean with the gravel stage tomorrow,

it's gonna be nervous. You need to be in front. You need to have your team make tempo to make sure that Primus, and especially Primus, is in front on those gravel sectors. And then the time trial, there's no way Ulysses and Fortunato are going to keep that slight advantage on Primus. So it's basically back to square one. I think the plan was to get rid of the Jersey, but as you say, probably to Fortunato a lot better. He was the best placed in GC. And it also shows that these battles for these other classifications like the mountains Jersey,

it's tall. Fortunato is in great shape, but he's been sprinting, he's been going in attacks day after day. And then you come into a situation where there's a few strong guys in the breakaway. And finally, you just don't have the legs to follow the strongest guys anymore. If you look at the composition of the breakaway initially, you would say, okay, ideal. You know, this is, this is an Italian rider in good shape. You know, he sure he can go up decently uphill, but he's not a threat for GC in the final week.

XDS are going to try to defend this jersey every day they can. And so yeah, that didn't turn out the way they wanted it to turn out. It's still XDS, but it's Ulysses, and it's not enough time. Okay, you know, you can try. I mean, it doesn't always work that, the workout the way you think it's gonna work out.

And nobody could foresee that Fortunato would not be able to follow, uh, the first three, four riders of the stage today. Well, you finish this, this client could, it's called the Sassu, Ted Sassu, Teto Tati. I assume that's like close to the grand Sassu, same, same region of the country. Big climb in the middle of the stage. Fortune out his first over it gets 40 K one points, which is a lot.

And I think that just sapped him. And it's like, we're kind of talking about that yesterday, where these writers who are going for the KOM, it's hard for them to contest the stage. I wouldn't say disaster. I mean, he could always slow pedal the time trial, I guess Roglic could. That would, he'd get out of the jersey if he did that, just see it a few minutes to, are you so, then they have to worry about holding that. Never going to happen. Never going to happen are you so then they have to worry. Holding that. Never going to happen. Never going to happen. No, I hope you're joking. I was thinking of like really dumb tweets I could send out and be pretending to be

serious. I mean, that was one of them that he could, yeah, just give it away in the time trial. What's the big deal? Yeah. No, I mean, their plan was to not defend the Jersey, but didn't turn out the way they hoped. Um, but Hey, you know, it's, uh, it's not the end of the world. Um, what did you think of, what if I told you Tom Pickock is attacking on the final climb five minutes behind the race lead. What would you say about that? That's weird.

I didn't get it. Yeah. Is he trying to test his legs for tomorrow? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. Yeah, no, it makes doesn't make much sense to me. Especially if you know that the stage win is gone.

It's hard for me to think that that got really believed that he's going to be top in GC. And tomorrow's a great stage for him. So I don't really understand why he was attacking it yet. Maybe they thought they won't chase me. But what's something interesting happened because I want to use it was right on his wheel. Roglic something interesting happened, because Wana Yusso was riding his wheel. Roglic was further back, like in the group, maybe caught a little off guard,

like, whoa, what's going on here? And then we get to the final kilometer and we don't see a lot of it, because we're just focused on, you know, it's like classic, like, oh, the breakaway is coming in. All these riders are coming in. GC group is coming in. And you see Wana Yusso come to the final corner with a few hundred

meters to go. Like he's the guy's coming down the straight at Tulsa, tough Brady village, Criterium like flying through the corner and then just start sprinting as hard as he can out of the saddle has kind of a sizable gap. Roglic is on the wheel of Chaconne probably should have been on the wheel of I used. So, but we don't know maybe I used so came from deep in the field and it caught him by surprise. But Roggich is a pretty good job. He never gets out of the saddle.

He just is kind of in the saddle doing his Roggich spin gets close to I used. So, but he does lose a second to him. I used to gains a second sprinting for 11th place. You think, okay, I guess mathematically that's good. I, to go by my own code, I did say every second could count here. So let's chalk that up. Good. You got a second. That's a big old effort though.

And it kind of reminded me a little bit of Tadej Pogacar 2023 tour where he's like, you know, sprinting for 11th place, 12th place to beat Jonas Vindigo, but no time bonuses available. Like that's not usually when you want to be using a sprint effort. Like what did you make of that? Well, obviously I think I used to, when he went, uh, I don't know if the same situation was like yesterday that he saw Roglic a bit out of position.

Uh, he would obviously have his attack was intended to have more seconds, four or five seconds. I would say the win for Ayuso is another one more mentally than the time gap. It's only one second, but again, he gets a little bit of time, not much, but it's time on Roglic. And if Roglic has really good legs and he's in good position, he would never let that happen. So it's a bit of a mental victory of UAE over Red Bull and of Ayuso over Roglic, but it doesn't have a big impact on what's to come.

Yeah, I mean- Second day in a row. It's the second day in a row that Roglic is not able to follow. I use her, but true or false. The zero to tie will be decided by sprints on stages seven and eight. It's probably false, correct? No false. Yeah. And then if you, if we, I think we had this conversation off Mike, but if you assume energy is finite, no, you, we were talking about this on the show, any energy you spend in this first week, if you don't is finite, no, you, we were talking about this on the

show on any energy you spend in this first week, if you don't get something for it, it's not well spent. So that, I mean, the, he got a second. He got a second. Yeah. He got a second. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, we'll talk about actually, I think these intermediate bonuses probably are literally more of like, I think when like I use or del Toro came in on the intermediate sprint in front of I use. So that actually would be a better way to be giving I use of seconds to not have that happen. But an interesting thing that almost happened is it almost meant Roglic was stuck in the Jersey because it was tight enough at that point.

And I used to surging, pickaxe surging on the final climb. I used to surging in the final almost ate away the gaps advantage, the breaks advantage to the point where it almost stuck Roglic back in the Jersey. I don't even know if they knew that was a possibility or if they were thinking. Yeah, I know. I don't, I mean, I don't, I don't think so. I mean, you can't calculate that precisely in the final of a stage. I mean, you can't calculate that precisely in the final of a stage. But listen, it's another confirmation that Ayuso is in great shape, that UAE is very present in the front of the race all the time with several riders.

And that Roglic is a little bit on his own except for, uh, Pellizzari. I mean, uh, I haven't seen the stage, but I assume he, Pellizzari was the only guy in the final with, with Roglic, right? Yeah. And it's just like yesterday, he was there and he looks good, but he looks green, you know, sometimes almost like, I don't know what I'm supposed to be doing. And I don't say that in like a mean way. Just like yesterday, it was like, okay, I'm here, Roglic, like where, what, what should

I do? Which makes sense. Cause he's 21 years old and he has not been on a big team before. Also, what if I told you UAE put a rider in the breakaway Igor Arietta and he was, he was riding hard even when the wind was up the road. I don't know if I fully understand that. I don't understand either Spencer. Uh, it makes no sense.

Um, Spencer. It makes no sense. Okay, I did hear Arietta's interview after the stage. It was not the purpose. It was not the plan. It's possible, especially if there's big groups that you're following the moves and that you're in it by accident, I would say. Sometimes people have difficulties understanding, oh, I'm in the break and I didn't want to be in the break, but I'm in it anyway. It does happen, right? If you have, if your job is to follow the moves,

to make sure that there's no big groups going, and all of a sudden you're in it. And then it's up to, you know, what the decision has to be made. This is a young rider. You also want to give them certain opportunities in certain stages. If you look at the composition of the breakaway,

it's kind of hard to imagine that Igor Arrieta was going to win the stage with these snipers present, with lots of experience for stage wins. So you can be in it. But in this case, I think the UAE should maybe have called him back or otherwise have him sit on because it's a young rider. The effort of today's stage, which was a hard stage and they have been a long time out there and the guy has raised full gas in the final, he will feel that in the recovery. Maybe tomorrow he's not fully recovered when they really need him. It's a possibility. So thinking long-term, I am not a fan of sending a guy in the break.

If you're the team of one of the big favorites and you kind of are almost sure he's not going to win the stage. Yeah. I mean, he's exactly the type of writer they need to do work. They have a lot of big names. Igor Ariadis should be first in the list of, are you ready to do your job today? I'd also say like opportunity, shm opportunity. Like we're here trying to slay a vampire like Primoz Roglic.

It's impossible to beat this man. Like this guy wins more than anyone. Like he could win. He could make chicken salad out of chicken shit. Like he's such a good bike racer. Like we all need to be focused on beating this guy. Like we can't be going in breakaways, doing our own thing. Like we're in a dog fight here. So I just, I thought it was a strange, maybe it was an accident, like you say, and they just decided to roll with it. Yeah. Yeah. That's most likely what happened. I mean, especially if you hear him after the

stage, he said it was not the plan, I was in it. And then once they saw the situation, then they gave him the free card to go for it. But yeah, I'm not a fan of this tactics. Well, do you have anything else on today, Johan, before we move on to preview Superport Stage 9? I mean, the only thing I can say is that a stage like today and yesterday and tomorrow, so it's, it accumulates the fatigue.

These are three not very easy stages. It's not mountain stages, but they're hard and this is difficult to recover from. So yesterday's effort over a very hard stage today, a hard stage, especially with the fast speeds in the beginning of the stage, could have their toll tomorrow for certain riders. When I mean, tomorrow is a really important stage. I'm not expecting huge differences. You know, there's a few sectors of Strada Bianca. It's not Strada Bianca. Let's, let's be clear.

It's not Strada Bianca and it's not the same Peloton as Strada Bianca. And usually what happens is you can see it also sometimes in the tour when there is a stage with Cabos or some sectors of Paris-Roubaix. It's never Paris-Roubaix. It's's a completely different race and tomorrow will be the same thing. I think. Yeah, that was a good point. It is really different in a way that's kind of even hard to articulate, but just to move on to tomorrow,

well let's take a quick break to hear from some partners and then we will preview stage nine and Johan's going to tell us who's going to win it. All right, Johan. So stage nine from Jubio, Gubio to Siena, I assume this is in Tuscany, 181 kilometers. The big, the big things you need to know. There are four gravel sectors, maybe a little bit more, but four, three big ones. Um, one of them, the first one is downhill. Pretty interesting. And this,

the third one is like 10 kilometers long, net uphill, quite a bit, net uphill. The favorites, I will list in a second, but we should say it's going to be incredibly important for GC favorites to be at the front because anything could happen. And then it finishes on, I know we were discussing if this has ever happened at the zero. I don't remember it ever happening, but it finishes in the Piazza del Campo, which is where Shrda Bianchi finishes. The reason this is important is because that climb is seriously hard up to the Piazza. Like that's a really, I think it's about a kilometer long.

I don't know how steep it is, but it's steep enough that Alvin Arndt fell off his bike with cramps the first time he did this race. So, you know, it's quite difficult and it is cobbled. It's not easy. You really have to be well positioned going into it. People will be nervous about this day. This day could be quite significant for the GC. The favorites on bet 365 to win as you would imagine Tom Pickock plus four 50 big heavy favorite. Matias Vodcek plus 900. Wow. Vinart plus 1000, Mads Pedersen plus 1200, Juana Iso plus 1400, Isaac Del Toro plus 1400, Primoz Roglic plus 1800, Pello Bilbao plus 1800, Egan Bernal plus 2500, Eduardo Zambinini plus 2500,

Giulia Csokone plus 3300, Christian Scroni plus 4000, Quentin Hermans plus 4000. I have not heard his name in a minute, but I think the wind probably comes from one of those, but Yohan, how, how do you think this is going to play out and who's going to win? Well, as I said before, Spencer, you know, it's not Strada Bianca, right? I know. And even if we all know the final climb into Siena, this is also not the same as at the end of a one day classic Strada Bianche, which is now more than 200 kilometers with a lot of gravel sectors and everybody arrives dead at that last climb.

This is completely different. Personally, I don't expect huge problems for the GC guys. The last climb, it's not like yesterday, for example, the last kilometer of that climb. It's not as steep. So I don't think that there will be big differences. This is not a climb, for example, where I can see, I used to do what he did yesterday. example, where I can see I used to do what he did yesterday. So I think it's more a stage where it's going to be very nervous. It could be amongst the guys from GC, especially because the gravel sectors are long. The peloton is going to be nervous if there's a breakaway. Only by the stress and the peloton, the speed will go up and

they will not be very far ahead, I think. If you look, as you said, the first gravel sector, in my opinion, is the most important one. It's eight kilometers long. You come into it downhill and then... So that's going to be very fast, very nervous. And then it goes uphill. And then the last gravel sector, it's only 2.3 kilometers long, but there's some steep, steep, steep parts in there.

Yeah, I also have to mention, Spencer, I am not a fan of these things in ground tours. I know people want to see spectacle and they want to see, you know, uh, different kind of racing, but, uh, this is nervous for everybody, the teams, the mechanics, uh, it's, you know, the, the, the choice of equipment, for example, is, is a difficult one because, uh, there's three long sectors, but are they really going to be decisive in the race? So what do you do with tire pressure? The majority of the race is on good roads and then you have three sectors of around nine kilometers. So it's a lot of stress and somebody can lose the Grand Tour on a stage like this because of bad luck. So I'm not a fan of this. But hey, that's what people want to see.

I'm going to choose Vácek again to win the stage tomorrow. I think he can win in both scenarios, even if it's all together. He's strong. He can. This kind of course is basis way within his capacities and he can win from a breakaway. Uh, he's my favorite to win tomorrow. Yeah. It's really to pick plus 900.

So the obvious one, Tom pitcock, I do not like this pick because he's close enough in the GC. I don't think he can get in the breakaway. I just, I think people don't trust his intentions at this race. And he's not a guy you'd want to give time to voluntarily because you don't know what's going to happen. Especially if you're going for podium or you're going for top five and then you get that whole situation where people start chasing people that

might challenge their top 10. That's a real thing, especially with points on the line. Also, I frankly think if he comes to the line with Vodzic, he does not win. I think Vodzic is stronger than him. I think he could beat him on that final climb. Wout Van Aert, good today. I don't know if he's good enough to win. I'm going to go, this might be crazy. Mads Pettersson plus 1200. I think Pettersson, I mean, he looked really good today off the front, getting those points, just like made it look clinical. The final climb could be a little too hard for him, but I guess it just depends. You know what? You don't have to be, if you're running from a bear, you don't have to be faster than the

bear. You have to be faster than the person you're against. So we don't know who he's coming to the line with. I think if he comes to the line with the person you're against. So we don't know who he's coming to the line with. I think if he comes to the line with the right group of people, he could win this at plus 1200 and it's, he's a very powerful writer. I think he won't be so bothered by the gravel, the gravel sections. Yeah. And he could also be in a breakaway. Yeah. And no one's going to care if he is, which is the important part. So you realized you're realizing Spencer, we're picking the little tech

guys all the time. There's an expiration date on this. They will, they will get tired eventually. It might be around tomorrow. So where, uh, we are playing with fire today. I mean, a little, it makes me a little uneasy actually today where it's like, no little trek in the breakaway. Was that intentional? Like, is this where they saving up or are they already running out of energy because of everything they've put in so far?

Yeah, it could be. It could be. I'm sure that they focused on the first week of this Giro. We're already past the week now, So it's gonna end at some point. But anyway, even if they don't win anything anymore for the rest of the Giro and, you know, Peterson, if, you know, except accident or illness will most likely win the points jersey

and they won three stages already. So their Giro is a big success already. Second choice. I think I'm going to go for Pitcock. He's not going to be in the break. But if it's all together, I think that the gravel sectors, he will have no problem. Let's not forget, he was the only guy who could follow Tadej Pugacar and Strada Bianche until he couldn't follow anymore. And that last climb should not be a problem for him.

He won't get dropped there. Question is, can he win in a sprint? But I think we have to consider and value the, the, the talent of Tom pitcock. He's a classy writer and has a huge talent. So, uh, he's going to be my second choice to win the stage. Well, the thing is, imagine, let's imagine that scenario. I don't know if he beats the UAE boys.

That's, that's imagine that scenario. I don't know if he beats the UAE boys. That's, that's my big concern. So my wild card is like Del Toro plus 1400 only cause I think they're getting way too cute with this race. And they're going to say, well, Wana Yuso won a stage. So it's now Del Toro's chance to win a stage. And probably Del Toro or probably I used to should go for it because the time bonus, but both these guys look so powerful. Yeah. To the point where if I was working for Red Bull Bora, I would be having nightmares about how powerful they look. I think either of them could cause, you know, it's that steep climb.

And then it kind of like flattens out. Like both of those guys could really do some damage where it flattens out going into the Piazza. I'm going to pick Del Toro. I think he's really, and this stage is kind of perfect for him. If you can get through the gravel. One thing I heard about Mets Pedersen yesterday, this is from Brian Nygaard. So he would know apparently Pedersen after he wasn't selected for the tour,

said it's going to suck for the team because I'm going to win all the stages. They're going to lose so much money on all the stages. I went at the Giro d'Italia that they're going to have to pay me in time and bonuses. So he's, he's motivated. Good attitudes. I like that. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but I, yeah, I think Del Toro, if he wins a stage, I mean, this one, obviously this obviously has pitcock written all over it, but I just don't think he's more powerful than these two UAE guys at the moment. Yeah. And Watzek. I mean, Watzek.

Yeah. And can Pickock, I don't know. I don't fully understand what's, if I was him, I'd be saying like, oh, I'm not interested in GCD. I personally think Spencer, if it's, I personally think if it's, if it's still together and, and Pedersen and Watzek about sick or there better soon sacrifices himself for about six, try to win stage. That's probably right. Yeah. Yeah. I would, I could see that happening.

I was switching about like better climber probably. Um, I mean, he, he was even, I was rewatching yesterday's stage. He was there until like a K to go. So very good climber. Well, not, as you say, this is not nearly as hard as yesterday's stage. So he won't be as bothered by it. Yeah. Anything else about, and you're not a fan of it.

I think I'm getting older because I think I'm becoming less of a fan of these stages too. They feel a little bit like a gimmick. I used to love them. I am curious to watch this. And I think it will be an exciting stage. Spencer, I repeat myself every single time when a stage like that comes up in a

grand tour, but I would invite everybody, uh, to ask around in the Peloton, writers and teams and stuff, what they would prefer. And they would 90% would say, Oh no, we don't want stages like this in a grand tour, especially the teams who have a GC ambitions because the risk is so high that something happens and you lose everything you've been working for, for months. Yeah. And we're talking about road racing, man. Scrabble. I will say, do you know what the most popular stage was from the tour last year? The one like everyone was buzzing about?

Yeah. The Tuah stage on stage. Yeah. The gravel stage. Yeah. I understand. I understand. It is spectacular.

It's, it's nice. Uh, but it's nice for those who are not in it. Can you imagine the staff too? It's, it's crazy. It would be a pain. Yeah. Yeah. And you know, I mean, every time you, especially every time you, you had, you had either a couple sector or a gravel sector. You're first of all, with the car, you're helpless. You're, you're, there's nothing you can do. You're far behind this dust.

You don't see anything. And you just hope that they don't call your numbers with mechanical problems or crashes. It is very, very stressful. Yeah. I mean, that somewhat, one of these guys in the GC will get a flat on a gravel sector. It will be a problem.

Yeah. I guess I assume the team cars are ordered Astana's first, Red Bull second. Yeah, it's the GC and the up and the reverse. Yeah, which does matter. But I guess the big ones, UAE, Red Bull. And also logistically for teams, and especially because these gravel sectors are so long,

they will have people, staff members covering these gravel sectors and probably on certain sectors at several points, you know, one in the middle and one at the end to have people there with wheels, at least with wheels, um, to, to, uh, actually, I don't know if you're allowed to take a wheel from, from the side of the road, uh, in a, in a grand tour. Um, I haven't checked the rules, but something, something tells me that it's not allowed. Used to be in a one day race.

It is, but, uh, I'm not sure. Actually, I'm not sure. Hmm. Well, let's watch for that. Now I'm curious to see if there's anyone out there, but I, yeah, I think it will be exciting. I guess is it, is it ethical? We could debate forever, but Johan, thanks for, for jumping in. And just programming note, we won't have a show tomorrow. There will be a regular move on the rest day on Monday. And then we'll be back to our normal schedule after that. So the move on the rest day, uh, which will be a recap of, uh, week one. Yes. In this case, the first nine stages,

probably an emphasis on tomorrow's stage. Unless it's a total snoozer, I guess. I would know what's going to happen. Yeah. It will be us explaining to George what has happened so far in this race. All right. Well, thanks, Johan. Okay. Thanks. All right. Bye.