THEMOVE - Giro d'Italia Week 2 Breakdown | THEMOVE

Episode Date: May 26, 2025

Johan Bruyneel, George Hincapie, and Spencer Martin break down Sunday's stage 15 of the Giro d'Italia, which saw Carlos Verona take the win with a long-range solo attack and the GC come to life with UAE's Isaac del Toro easily defending his race lead while distancing pre-race favorite Primož Roglič. They discuss how this stage highlights both Del Toro's strength and vulnerability, the apparent confusion inside his UAE about who the team's leader is, and how they will expect the brutally hard third week to shake the final GC standings. Before they take off, they predict who will win Stage 16's critical mountain stage and how the GC picture will look afterward. LMNT: Get your free 8-count Sample Pack with any LMNT purchase at https://drinklmnt.com/themove Be sure to try the new LMNT Sparkling — a bold, 16-ounce can of sparkling electrolyte water. Tushy: Over 2 million butts love TUSHY. Get 10% off Tushy with the code THEMOVE10 at https://hellotushy.com/THEMOVE Pique: For a limited time, get 20% off for life plus a free Starter Kit (rechargeable frother and glass beaker) when you grab the Pu'er Bundle. With Pique's 90-day money-back guarantee, you've got nothing to lose. Try it now at https://www.piquelife.com/themove and feel the difference on your next ride. Ketone-IQ: No sugar. No artificial ingredients—just pure ketones in a convenient bottle. Save 30% OFF your subscription order. Go to https://ketone.com/themove to get yours! Square: Square keeps up so you don’t have to slow down. Get everything you need to run and grow your business—without any long-term commitments. And why wait? Right now, you can get up to $200 off Square hardware at https://square.com/go/THEMOVE. Run your business smarter with Square. Get started today. Saily - Get an exclusive 15% discount on Saily data plans! Use code THEMOVE at checkout. Download the Saily app or go to https://saily.com/themove

It could also be that perhaps they're not fully confident in Del Toro's third week. You know, power after being such a young guy that has never been in this position, being in the pink jersey every day, having to do press conferences, getting back to the hotel later than everybody else. Twenty one years old. There's got to be some questions there as well, I would I would guess. Everybody, welcome back to the Move. I am Spencer Martin. I'm here with George Hincapie and Johann Bernil.

We are discussing how the second week of the Giro d'Italia played out and what we expect to happen in the third week. Just a quick primer in case you haven't been following along. The last stage was stage 15 yesterday. A mountain stage, kind of a strange mountain stage with the hardest, another one of these stages with the hardest climb right in the middle and then a long climb, a 16 K climb, but up to a plateau finishing in Oziago.

We've done this a few times in the recent past is it's always a chase between the breakaway and the GC group, but Carlos Verona from Little Trek, one with a 44 44 kilometer solo breakaway for Little Trek, sixth win of this Giro d'Italia. But the big news was behind Isaac del Toro was following every move, being chased by his UAE team and eventually dislodging Primoz Roglic, who lost, I believe 90 seconds by the finish line. And we're going into a brutal third week, apparently the hardest third week at the Giro d'Italia in 25 years. We will get George and Johan's take on how this is going to play out.

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peaklife.com slash the move and feel the difference on your next ride. All right, Johan, let's have you go first. What was your big takeaway from yesterday's stage 15? And what do you think it means for the upcoming stages? Yeah, well, first of all, six stage wins for Little Trek. That's not bad. Amazing. Pretty amazing. And especially, you know, the day after they lost their GC guy, Gilles Ciccone, Pretty amazing. And especially, you know, the day after they lost their GC guy, Giuro Ciccone, due to the crash. What a way to come back of that team. And especially also Carlos Verona, only his second win in his pro career. One of the guys who always selflessly works for the team, for anybody who wants his support. And you can see clearly within the team how happy everybody was that Carlos won that

stage. It's a very strong performance. He was initially he was not in the big break. Then he came back with a little group of six riders and then took off far from the finish and won the battle against the guys behind him. So yeah, it was super nice to see. And as often, you see that little track when things start to really go in the way the team wants it to be, then the winds keep coming.

I think they were fully focused on Mats Pedersen and on Chicona for the GC, but they won two stages with two domestiques with Don Hool and, and Carlos Verona. So, um, and then, yeah, what else? Uh, we could clearly see that Primoz was having problems. We don't know exactly the reason. Um, he did go down three times already in this G row. So, um, I've seen some, is it more than three though? No down three times already in this G-Row. So, um, I've seen some, more than three though. No, three times. That's including the time trial crash. Uh, yeah. Yeah. There are more we didn't see.

I think three times is a lot in, in, in two weeks. Um, especially, you know, if you need to recover. And yesterday, he was on a day that you could clearly see he was pedaling squares. He was always out of position. You could see every time there was a slight acceleration, he went back a little bit. And finally, when Bernal attacked and then Carapaz attacked after that, he was found out and couldn't stay with the group of favorites. The only one, the only rider of all the GC riders that wasn't able to keep up. So that says a lot about the state he was in yesterday. Luckily, he had two

teammates with him. And then, you know, where he got dropped, I actually feared that he was going to lose a lot more time. Ultimately, he lost one and a half minutes. It's too much. And, you know, we'll see. We'll see tomorrow if Primos is at the start or not. But I think it's fair to say that he's out of contention now for the win this Giro after the time loss yesterday. What do you think, George? Well, I mean, let's go back to, like you mentioned, Johan, Carlos Verona, second pro win, first ever grand tour stage

win. He's been close before, I think second in the Welta, third in one other grand tour. But what a great guy. I mean, this is one, this is a guy that anybody would want on their team. Super nice. I've chatted with him a bunch. He was going to come to the US a few years ago. Had his family at the finish line. Like it doesn't get better, any better than his victory yesterday. Solo 40k solo ride, family waiting for you at the finish line. Six stage win for the team. Just incredible to watch and super, super pumped for him. But yeah, lots of drama. I used to have a mechanical right at the bottom of the, um, what's the climb called? Motor, not the, it's not the motor.

Oh, Monte grappa. Monte grappa. Monte grappa. Um, so just imagine for most people that happens like day is over, but he stayed super calm road within himself. Ineos goes to the front, a little bit of drama there. People are asking, why are they doing this? That's racing.

I mean, yeah, it was planned. Yeah. Yeah. It was planned. And they're not going to divert their plan because another member of another different team has a mechanical. It just doesn't work that way. And then fast forward a bit. Del Toro is up in the front with the best GC guys. UAE is behind chasing. Also, people questioning that tactic. But Johan, you said something in in pre-show notes that I found very interesting.

Why don't you repeat it to our listeners? Yeah, I mean, there's been a debate, you know, because Del Toro was following the attacks of Bernal and Carapaz, and he had his teammates, he had four teammates behind, and the team, with Ayuso, who was having some kind of a problem or couldn't follow. And so UAE chased down Del Toro with Bernal and Carapaz and a few others. I think Aran Sman was there too. And I think, especially because it was so far from the finish, I think it was the right

thing to do because you could have Del Toro together with these guys. But it's still, you know, it's Bernal and Carapaz grand tour winners. You don't know what's going to happen in the last week. And at that point, the majority of riders of UAE was too big to give that up because nothing was going to happen. But if, for example, if those four riders or five riders go away, then Del Toro was going to happen. But if, for example, if those four riders or five riders go away, then Del Toro is all by himself. And if something happens, he has nobody with him. So I think it was the right thing to do. It may seem a bit controversial to chase down the guy in pink, but and people say, yeah, you know, they're protecting you.

So I don't think that was the reason. It was basically to maintain the team together so far from the finish. So I agree with what they did. I mean, so I agree with you, Johan. That definitely makes sense. But it could also be that perhaps they're not fully confident in Del Toro's third week.

Power, after being such a young guy that has never been in this position, being in the pink Jersey every day, having to do press conferences, getting back to the hotel later than everybody else. 21 years old. There's gotta be some questions there as well. I would, I would guess. Probably, but I would have confidence for what I've seen until now. I think, I think the guy is going to stay on this level. He's so easy. Well, yeah, go ahead. Should I, should I list? I realized I didn't list the GC just to provide people context for what we're

talking about. Isaac del Toro is leading the race and then Simon is a big lead. Simon Yates second 120, Wani Yusso third 126, Richard Carapaz, fourth 207, Derek G. Fifth, 254. And then Egan Bernal, I'm skipping over some, Egan Bernal's eighth, 338. Primoz Roglic, 10th, 353. I would say he's looked easy, Johan, but we haven't really raced in the mountains. We've had three kind of mountain days and then Del Toro. It's not only that he's not had the pink Jersey before he's not even really

raced high Alpine stages before in his career, like with over 4,000 feet of vert. And that's pretty much all we have for the rest of this race. 4,000 meters. Yeah. 4,000 feet of that would be kind of a, if he's not raised that. Yeah, I know. I know. But you know, I mean, there's always a first time, you know, when a young guy like that, he's discovering himself day by day, but he has shown that he has talent. And I go, I especially go off the way I see the way he writes. He is flying.

He is always in the good position. You know, whenever there's a gap to be closed, he's on it like without even trying. I think this guy, we could see, I mean, we could see the Giro winner. I mean, that he keeps it through the final week. What about, Johan, what about these little like, for instance, the other day, I don't know if it was yesterday or two days ago, pretty hard bonus sprint when Del Toro was going full gas forward and then you saw Pimson at the line. I mean, that's not a great look. What do you think about that? Yeah, we talked about it. We talked about it with Spencer in the other show. Yeah. I

mean, I don't think it was more, UAE was leading it out. So they were making the tempo and Del Toro passed his teammate. And then at the end, Ayuso came, it looked like to me, like, like he let Ayuso pass. It's clear that Ayuso, listen, we've said this already, Ayuso in his mind is the only leader of the team in this Giro. He came to this Giro to win it and he's still riding as if that is the case. And rightfully so. I mean, he's in good shape. He had a great season so far. He was already third in the Vuelta a few years ago.

So he's still a serious candidate to win this Giro. So yeah, I don't know what's going on between them. I know how the atmosphere is. Del Toro seems like a very nice guy, super relaxed. He said, yeah, I'll just take it as it comes. But let me tell you, deep down inside, he believed that he can win this Giro d'Italia. He won't say it. And the team won't say it.

So I think it's right because it doesn't put any pressure on them. But I think UAE is in a great situation. They have two candidates. And for the the moment they have their chances intact. But Ayuso needs to take time. I mean, it's a one and a half minutes. He needs to get back to del Toro. So, well, did he look good T on stage 15? I thought he looked like the worst rider outside of Primus Rockledge.

He was struggling a lot at the back. Ayuso? Yeah. Yeah. Um, yeah. He was back at the back. Ayuso? Yeah. Yeah. Um, yeah. He's back at the team car, that hard start and he's back at the team car. Like what's going on today? Today's the rest day. Um, yeah, I think, I, I think I used to, okay. Um, I would, I, if, if I would be, I used to,

I would be worried and they're not, they're not blind. They see in the Peloton these little accelerations, you know, when something happens, you know, exactly, you know, straight away, oh, this guy has a little bit more power than me. So, I think I used to still a very serious candidate to do, to do in this Giro, by the way. Yeah. And we had a crazy last week coming up. So I mean, I don't know. I don't think I agree. Del Toro looks incredible. He's going after all these attacks like fingers in the nose. But I mean, Spencer's going to break down what we have coming up this week. You know, that's completely different ball game. And we've seen, we've seen catastrophic breakdowns

by other riders, young riders, or even experienced riders in that third week of the Giro. It really starts, the fatigue really starts building up in these riders. So I think still anything can happen. Like, Johan, what if, let's say I'm riding for you, I'm, I'm a star, I'm 21 year old superstar. I'm winning the Giro. George is on my team. He's super dedicated, strong domestic and it's stage 15 with a hard third week coming up and I'm chasing down every move personally for riders that are three or four minutes back in the GC. What would you tell me as a director? You see that?

It's not, I mean you have to, you're chasing down is a big word, Spencer. You know, he's basically always in front, but he's not closing that. It seems like a, yeah, but he's following the word, Spencer. You know, he's basically always in front. But he snapped closing that. It seems like a... Yeah, but he's following the wheels, man. He's following... I haven't seen him do... The biggest effort he has done in the last few days is when he got up from the crash and sprinted back to that first group. That's been his most violent effort. Other than that, he was always well positioned, which is, you know, he's the only one who's always well positioned from all the, all the GC riders.

I mean, you could maybe Simon Yates also, because he's silently there and he's, you know, he's, he's, he's not been much in the picture, but he's in second for a reason. But I don't think that, I mean, those bonus sprints, obviously, those are accelerations that cost energy. But today they have a rest day. He's young. He doesn't, yeah. I mean, there's a few things he did that he probably

shouldn't have done. Is it going to matter in the end? We don't know. I think it tends to matter though. There's a reason GC contenders have teams and they aren't. And I like, I like a guy like Simon Yates. I mean, he's on an experienced grand tour team, winning team.

He's, he's been there in the third week of grand tours many times. He looks like he's just gotten stronger and stronger throughout the zero. I'm only a minute and something changed ahead of him. I'm a little bit nervous. That's for sure. Yeah. He's definitely, he's definitely growing in this Giro. It's been a while, you know, it's been a long time since we've seen Simon Yates at the front in a, in a grand tour like this. But you know, he's won the Tour of Spain.

He was on his way to winning the Giro when he did these crazy attacks unnecessary. And yeah, I mean, you know, if he's in second right now, definitely somebody that they have to take into account for the podium. I agree. And he's got an axe to grind. Like he lost that Giro probably because he did too much, but he was dominating that Giro. So I'm sure he's back in his mind,

knowing, learning from the mistakes he made and playing a whole different ball game in this Giro. And he's as in good of a position as you can be in coming into the last week of the Giro. Yeah. Well, it's a long time ago, you know, it's a long time. If I'm not mistaken, Spencer, maybe you can find it out quickly, but that Giro he lost

and the Vuelta he won, wasn't it in the same year? It is good memory. It was 2019, right? 2018 because it was the year Frum came back at the Giro and then he wins the Volta later in the year. Yeah. Yeah. It's seven years ago. Notable how differently he's riding these two zeros. You know, he was del Toro in the Giro and then now he's the invisible man.

I'm like, you forgot he was there. I would say a secret really good result because I was thinking the same thing. Johan, I was like Simon Yates. Can he really win this race? He always get dropped. He doesn't get dropped big time, but he leaks time. When really good riders attack in the mountains, but fourth at the 2023 tour, you don't really remember it because it was Bogota or Vindigo, Vindigard, but fourth at that tour is a really good, that's almost, it sounds ridiculous. That's almost like winning another grand tour because Adam Yates,

Bogota, Jonas Vindigard. So that's a recent result that shows he can climb consistently really good. I would be super worried about that. If I was UAE, do you think the stitches and I use his knee, is that going to play a part? Johan. Definitely not a good thing. You know, uh, the body needs to heal. It doesn't heal in, you know, three, four days. You know,

there's a little bit produces little inflammation. Who knows? I've heard, you know, that after the time trial, the stitches were open again. So I don't know if they had to put them back in or if they had to, I don't know what they did, but, um, it's obviously a bothering him. That's far from ideal. So let's take a quick, George, you want to say something really quick? Yeah, I was gonna say any kind of any, even a minor crash in a grand tour is definitely not ideal,

but stitches in your knee is a big deal. And yes, he's a young rider probably recovers a lot quicker than, than most riders, but I would, I would guess it's, it's definitely taken a few percentage points away from his performance right now. So on that great topic, cause we're going to talk about someone else who's having some hard problems with crashes and it adding up when we come back from this quick ad break.

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you were mentioning a crash is a single crash is not good. Well crashing three times and one of them on stage 14, right before hard stage 15, probably doesn't help. And that's Primoz Roglic who, I mean, what's funny is yesterday was one of the hardest stages of the race we've had so far. And it was one of the only stages where the top five didn't have a time change because they all finished on the same time behind at the time bonuses. Primoz Roglic though comes in 90 seconds down.

He is now 353 down on del Toro. Doesn't look good. I will say though, the Giro d'Italia known for big riders coming back, like for example, let's go to 2020, Teo Gaggenhardt, 257 behind on going to the final rest day. Twenty-eight to twenty-eighteen, Chris from 452 behind going to the final rest day. Vinc 18, Chris from four 52 behind going to the final rest day, Vincenzo Nibali. He was four 43 down after stage 16 and 2016. The reason I think you see this it's less so at Gaggenhardt because these big

riders, they don't care about what fifth of the zero and then the terrain gets harder. So you like put them in a corner, like a wounded animals in a corner and they have no choice, but to like react in a major way. And that kind of sets up these comebacks. Having said that, I don't know if I see that happening with, with Primos. What do you guys think? Yeah, I think we've seen it in the past with the tour. I mean, when he's,

he gets, he's the more he crashes, the more it affects him. Uh, every year is a bit older. I don't see him coming back, but it is pretty much Roglic. You never know. But I feel like the time that he lost yesterday really indicates that those crashes are taking this toll. And I don't see him recovering on one rest day from that. No, I think the same, you know.

I mean, before yesterday, I didn't really realize how much damage the crashes had done. I was still believing that he was biding his time and waiting for the last week, but yesterday he looked really bad. He looked pale. I mean, I don't know if he's sick or obviously Georgian, I mean, you know this better than anybody. If you crash three times, the recovery is not the same.

You don't sleep the same. It catches up with you. Right. And yesterday we could see he paid the price for that. So yeah, I think I think I haven't seen enough from Primoz Roglic in this Giro to believe that he has another joker to play. You know, it's it's he's been on the back foot a bit too much to to to really believe that he can he can turn this around in my opinion. Yeah, I mean think about that just a sort of minor crash

and that warm enough for the time trial. I, that still hurts and you still put your body through that little bit of trauma and then go full gas. He did a great time trial, a decent time trial. But I think a day or two later, then that actually really starts affecting him where it's just, it's a grand tour. I mean, you need every bit of your body's recovery. You can get out of it and crashing like that in a warm up for a time trial, then go on full gas. It's just a lot of those things are going to, he's going to pay dividends on that. We saw that yesterday by losing that time. Yeah.

I, I, let's wait until tomorrow morning and see if, first of all, if he takes the start, you know, I think they use the Red Bull, they use the rest of the day to really assess the situation, uh, let him rest and let him recover a little bit. And if there's already doubts, if he's gonna take the start or not, I think it doesn't look good for Primos, no, no. Yeah, pains me to say it. I think it might be done.

But the right when we say that is when he's going to come back. I mean, I will say, I don't think it's going to happen. I was shocked going back and looking at Chris Froome and Nibali. Like I cannot believe those guys won those heroes. Those are big deficits with just a few stages remaining. So I guess technically it's happened. I don't see it happening this time, partly because we're art. Like how would Primos come back? He would attack mid stage on a big climb,

but we're already seeing that happening with, with the Ineos and Egan Bernal. What do you guys make of this? Is it just cause they need time? They're 338 down or they, is it like psychological terrorism? Now UAE is worried about attacks coming from any point because when you look at these, like let's say Bernal gets away yesterday, it's like, so he's a hundred K from the finish line. What's he going to do with a full UAE team behind him? I don't really understand those tactics either. He obviously, you know, he feels good. I think Bernal is trying to get confidence back in three week stage races.

It's been a long time, you know, since the accident it's been, he's been struggling. He. I read an interview. He said it's the first time that in a long ground tour that he doesn't have any back pain anymore. And obviously he feels great. He must feel great because every time there's an opportunity, he attacks. But yeah, there's been two or three of those attacks to question a bit the moment because it's far from the finish. And especially with such a strong UAE team, there's not much they're going to do. You know, the purpose

could be, okay, maybe they, I mean, they see Primoz is not good. Maybe they see Ayuso has some trouble trying to eliminate those guys early on. That could be, you know, and then if he finds Carapaz, for example, and then, and Aransman was there yesterday to help him, but Del Toro is going to be there, you know. So, yeah, and also, especially because the terrain of Bernal has to come. These are the, these are, this is the, the last week, that's his terrain now. So, uh, if he feels that good, I would have probably waited a little bit

longer and just, you know, hide and, and, and just follow. Yeah, I agree. I think like, like Johan said, he's, he's, he's close to his top level. He, he, he started losing some confidence. I, I went to his grand fund in November and he's like, man, the numbers these guys are doing is just incomprehensible. But he stayed in Bogota a long time,

trained at that high altitude and we see it now. He's back to being confident, back to attacking, back to his team having confidence in him and riding at their front form. And we're getting, like Johan said, we're getting to his terrain, we're getting to the high altitude mountains, which is his backyard, so to speak. And I like I like how good he's looking. And I think we're going to see a lot more aggression out of him in this finals week as well as Carapaz. Also, a really good high altitude rider already won a stage, an epic stage,

rode away from the best guys in the world on that climb. So we're gonna see a lot more from those two, I believe. Yeah. Yeah, on that note, actually, now that I'm thinking about it, who tried to snap respond to that instead of staying with their team? Isaac Del Toro probably actually gave, Karib has a little bit more of a gap,

but on this third week, we've been dancing around discussing, just to give people context on this. So the hardest stages of this race, vertical meters wise, first is stage 19, second is stage 16, third is stage 20, fourth is stage 15, which just happened yesterday, fifth is stage 17. So four of the hardest,

four of the five hardest remaining stages, we have not raced yet. So we really, it sounds ridiculous after the second rest day, but we really haven't raced a lot of the terrain that we'll decide this year to tell you if you're Bernal. Yeah, Johan, I'm the same. It's like, maybe we just saved that for the third week. And then the concerning thing is he's losing time. Like this is, these are riders who gained and lost time and we too on del Toro.

So del Toro zero, he's the baseline. Derek G he took a minute and five. Simon aids took 222 seconds. One. I used to lost 13 seconds. Carapaz lost 27 seconds. Egan Renal lost a minute 41 seconds on del Toro in the second week. So it's like, well, and maybe instead of putting resources into these big attacks, we just focus on like holding serve until we get to the third week, but they're trying something. It's, I mean, it's kind of interesting to watch and maybe it's setting something up later in

the race. Like people will think that it's a silly move and they won't chase. I don't know. I don't know. Even as I say that, it doesn't sound so plausible. I mean, you know, seeing a team at the front all day long controlling the pace sometimes gets a little boring. So I don't mind seeing other big teams mixing it up and trying to be aggressive and trying to get some time where most people may not think it's a great idea. But I think, yeah, like we said, Bernal is getting more and more confident and I think

we're going to see more and more of that. Did you guys notice this just how hard the stages have been? So like stage 15, I believe it was like one of the fastest stages, like of all time over 180 kilometers or something. And it was a mountain stage, but Antonio Tiber, he's sitting seventh overall, got dropped at the beginning of the stage. It was that hard that a GC. And also he went down pretty hard. He was, he was, I think he was one of the first guys who went down the day before.

Yeah. Last to get up to, didn't have a great day yesterday. Tiberi. Um, actually Caruso looks better than Tiberi at this very moment. Um, but, but yeah, I mean, listen, this 24,000 vertical meters left. That's goes to half of the whole grand tour. What was it? Total of 56,000 or something. Yeah. 56. So, so that's massive. Yeah. Yeah. Like that's half of a hard grand tour would have 50,000 meters of

climbing. And so that's half remaining, which is a pretty daunting. Do you guys have anything else to say on yesterday before you move on to tomorrow's stage? Hopefully predict a little bit better than we did last time. I don't have anything to say about yesterday's stage, but we do need to shout out Cas Brasgrain, former Tour of Flanders winner. I mean, had a couple of quiet years as an occasional listener of our show and actually promised that he would come on our show at some point. So I was personally very happy to see him win an epically hard

stage, very tactical breakaway. They kept the control of their speed the whole time and he was able to pull off an incredible stage victory and arguably Casper's back to his top level. I was really happy to see that. Yeah, we did. We did compliment him in our, in our show George. Yeah, that was an amazing performance. You know, one of those stages that when Oscar Green is, you know, in the mood and has the legs, there's not many people who can pull it off in that way. And he did it. So yeah, that was a great win. That was a great win for him. Another crazy stage, by the way, average speed was about 29 miles an hour, 29 almost 30. So that's like almost 50 K an hour. That's a little,

we never got much time right from the breakaway. Minute and a half was the max, I believe. Which is crazy. Yeah. I mean, they can, they were right there the whole time. Yeah. And I mean, really it just like clever move. I was saying after that stage George's last three world tour wins are that stage, a stage with the Tour de France and the Tour of Flanders. So the quantity is not high, but the quality is, is pretty impressive. It's as good as it gets.

Yeah. So let's take a quick break and then we will predict stage 16 and talk about who we think is going to win this overall. Hey everybody. This episode is brought to you by Salie. When I'm traveling abroad for bike races, like when I was at the tour to France last year, it can be really difficult to watch because you need to watch on your phone. Cause when you're at the race, you don't see a lot of it. And what do you need to watch on your phone? You need data. How do you have data?

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All right, back to the show. So stage 16 tomorrow stage it's we're still like floating around the Veneto. We cannot leave. We feel like we've all moved to the Veneto. We cannot get out of this place. We are back there for the start of tomorrow's stage. We go into the mountains above Lake Garda, which are steep and long, but we're still not in the high altitude alpine climbs. We have one, two, three, four categorized climbs. Here's the catch though. They're all over 10k long. And the last second to last climb averages 8.3% for 12.6 kilometers. And then the last climb, it looks almost deceptively easy because it's 18 kilometers long.

It's six and a half percent average, but the last half of it is about, every time it's going uphill, it's about 9% average for the last half. There's a small descent in there with actually, which actually could make the race harder. Um, cause it's just going to disrupt rhythm and like if you're struggling and there's a descent and slight flat, you might actually lose more time. But all this stuff, the favorites from Unibet for this stage and then we'll predict the stage and then we'll also predict who he thinks going to win the overall.

I tend to think it's probably going to be the same rider who wins tomorrow, who wins the overall, but Isaac del Toro is the heavy, heavy favorite at plus two 50. I thought this was overall. Oh, that's how heavy of a favorite is Richard Carapaz plus four 50. Wana Yusso plus 500. Giulio Pelissari plus 1400. That's an interesting one. Egan Bernal plus 2000.

Primoz Roglic plus 2200. Simon Yates plus 2500. Wout Polz plus 2500. J vine plus 3300. I'm, I'm skipping some Poles plus 2,500. Jay Vine plus 3,300. I'm skipping some. Or Michael Storer plus 3,300. Nairo Quintana plus 3,300. Derek G plus 4,000.

Danny Martinez plus 5,000. Johan, you go first. Who do you think is gonna win this stage? Yeah, well, I think it's gonna be GC day tomorrow. Stage is too hard. You know, 4,700 meters of climbing. The last climb is very hard. The others are not easy either. I'm going to predict Isaac del Toro. I think tomorrow he's going to make a statement and say, Hey, I'm the pink Jersey. I'm the leader

and I'm winning this thing. He's ugly. El Toro, even at plus two 50. I'm going to pick him to win the stage. It's a good, it's a good pick. I mean, it's such a weird situation because just bait, if you just watched the stages and you had no information about who these people were or their history or the coming stages, you'd say, well, obviously, yeah, cause he's the strongest guy in the race. It's just such a different stage than we've raced. I, I will say in this, this further bolsters your point,

I went back and I watched the 2019 Volta a España with a 20 year old rider storming through that third week. So it's not like, Tadej Pogacar by the way. So it's not like automatic that these young guys get worse in the third week. Like Pogacar was probably the strongest rider in that third week at the Volta. So it is possible, obviously in the next year at the tour, he was very good in that third week, like Pagache was probably the strongest rider in that third week at the Vuelta. So it is possible obviously in the, in the next year at the tour, he was very

good in that third week and won the tour, but it's not a guarantee that they get worse. I would say I would be surprised. I wouldn't be shocked. I'd be surprised if he won because that I think he would probably, he could pencil them in for the overall, if he won tomorrow. Yeah, for sure. George, who's your pick? I'm going to go with Carapaz.

I think the tax he's made, the win he had, um, he's, he's clearly full of confidence and full of power when it gets to the climbs and I think arguably this these last week climbs suit him even better. Um, and the team is on a roll. I mean, they got the stage with Casper. Um, so for me, I'm going to go with Carapaz tomorrow. It's a good pick. It's, yeah, it's kind of interesting. And it does feel like any of these guys could win. I'm going to go a little further down. Simon Yates plus 2,500. Like

I'm actually surprised he's not more highly ranked here on this because he's a very good climber. We're getting into his terrain and I do think probably whoever wins tomorrow wins the overall because this is a hard stage. You can't hide on these climbs. There's no nuance. There's no texture on them. It just can you go really hard for a long time uphill. And if you can, you'll win and you'll probably win the overall, but I'm going to pick Simon Yates to win that. Okay. Who do you guys think will win the overall

you go first. I'm going to go with Simon Yates. Uh, you know, he's got an ax to grind with the Giro. He was very close. A few years ago. Um, I think maybe perhaps road way too aggressively showed his car the bit too much. And we haven't even really seen him except him climbing up the standings this whole last two weeks. And a guy like that's got the experience, got the legs to climb the best and got the legs to beat them and sprint many times as well. So I'm going to go with Simon Yates and he's got an experienced Grand Tour team, a winning team behind them. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I mean, I like,

I like the fact that we haven't seen him and he's in second position. That's, that's really good. You know? Yeah. Yeah. Spencer, you were going to go next. Yeah. I got a, I got a real kooky one. I will admit just to say up top, I think people are probably overlooking one. I use. So he's in third and we're acting like the guy's like been limping through this race terrible. And he really has lost time to his teammate. He's outperformed his teammate who's leading the race in time trials and climbs and only lost time with trip with crashes. But in time bonuses, I'm going to go Derek G to win the overall. I admittedly,

a bit of a kooky pick plus 3,300, but a couple of data points here. He's lost to Isaac del Toro. He's lost three minutes, 22 seconds on flat stages, and he only trails him by 254. So he's actually gained time outside of those stages. We have none of those flat stages remaining or as flat changes, there's a little difference will be made most likely. So, and I do think it's a little like less romantic, but I think modern cycling too is just about,

can you get a real big guy to put up real big Watts for a real long time? And they'll do well on these hard climbs. It's, I mean, Pagacar is not big, Vanguard is not big, but those guys put out massive, massive Watts for a long time. But I think in the absence of them, if, if G who looks fit can just be turning over so like just so much power, it could be hard for some of these. Like more climbers to keep up with them. Yeah. Well, I don't see him winning.

He'll, he'll, he'll be, he'll be good. I mean, one thing I, I mean, I'm sure you saw it yesterday, Spencer. He's very, very easy. I mean, he thing I'm sure you saw it yesterday, Spencer. He's very, very easy. I mean, he's riding very comfortably. You saw that image with the guy with the Fox and he is touching the Fox. Yeah, that was when Enios was attacking, by the way. And it was going very fast. Yeah.

I'm going to predict the podium. One, two and three. So I think Del Toro keeps pink. He's winning the Giro. Uh, got a pass second, when I use a third, that's my podium. I think there's nobody stronger than Del Toro right now. Um, you know, we have to see the last week, but I think he can do it. It's interesting. Let's say that happens, Johan. What's the path forward for UAE? I mean, I used to can't stay right.

Cause now I mean, he'll have to stay because he has a huge contract, law long-term contract, the big buyout clause. Um, presumably not the lead a grand tour at some point. Well, not every, not every year is the same. I mean, Del Toro was obviously not in the plans, but, uh, here we go. Here we are, you know, Del Toro wins this for race. I mean, it's so rare for a 21 year old to win a grand tour. We're talking all time greats.

I mean, that's, that's a bit of a crowded team. Do you think they all three can stay plus Almeida? Pagacho del Toro, Ayuso, João Almeida. This is like four of the best team guys in the sport. It's a nice problem to have as a team. As a team. And don't forget about Adam, Adam Yates. He's also there.

Yeah. Who's probably going to be on teammate duty in this third week, which is nice, nice thing to have for sure. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, what's, what'd be hilarious if, if Simon Yates wins this Visma wins a grand tour and a grand tour, none of us expected beats this all-star team from UAE that I'm kind of secretly pulling for that. Um, just cause it would be interesting. Yeah. I think Simon Yates is riding a smart race. But you know, he's, he has shown weaknesses at several, several times.

Anyway, the last thing is completely, completely different, but, uh, he's lost a little bit of time here and there. You don't have to dig too deep in the tapes to find Simon Yates weaknesses. That sounds rude, but, but he has been so, I mean, I actually was surprised how rock solid he's been and like kind of how visible he's been. That's, that is who tends to win these backloaded races. One of the, one of the, one of the really, uh, big statements he made is that minute it was difficult to see because the weather changes in the time. He did a really good time trial. Really good compared to all the other GC guys. Uh, I think it was only Roglic who did better than him in the time trial.

Well, Derek G. Yeah, he did better than him. Yeah. I, I, I, I, Yeah. Johan's on an anti Derek G. I don't know what Derek G did to you, but nothing, nothing. I mean, I actually, no, I, I liked the guy, but he hasn't, you know what he did to you, but nothing, nothing. I mean, I actually, no, I, I liked the guy, but he hasn't, you know, he was, it was third and he was top 10 in the tour. You know, we haven't seen anything else at this level, right? I'm extrapolating a lot to get him to winning this.

We're skipping a lot of steps if he wins this race. Yeah. All right. Well, anything else guys, before we take off. Nope. That's it. All right. Well, have a great day. And I'm, I'm excited for the third week. If you're, if you haven't watched the race yet, it's on max and the U S so find it there. Buckle in. This is a, it's good. It should be a great few stages of racing. Okay. Thanks guys. Thank you.