THEMOVE - Has UAE’s Stage Win Obsession Gone Too Far? | Vuelta a España Stage 14 Analysis & Stage 15 Preview | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: September 6, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin discuss UAE's continued stage win dominance with Marc Soler adding to the team's near-absurd tally from the early breakaway, with João Almeida and Jonas Vingegaard unable to shake eachother closely behind in the GC group. They debate if UAE's focus on stage wins at this point in the race is wise, and before wrapping up, preview tomorrow's stage, discussing how they expect it to unfold and who presents the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

A lot of the riders that have come out of the Tour de France look pretty beat up. Like Felix Gall, you would say, is not climbing at his best. Jonas Windergarde is not at his best. So it's possible that Salernia is like just getting his legs from the tour. And that's why he's not always been where he needs to be for Almeida. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernier.

We are breaking down stage 14 of the Valta, Spainia. won by Mark Salair from UAE, the team's seventh stage win of this race. Unbelievable. Jonas Findergarde second, Juala, made a third, Jai Henley, fourth, Velas Golf, fifth, about half a minute behind in the GC group on the summit finish. We'll break this down and then preview tomorrow's stage 15. Johan, before we get your thoughts, I'll just recap the stage as quickly as I can. It was as short-ish stage, 135 kilometers.

There was a fight for the breakaway. A breakaway eventually goes. The two most notable things were Victor Campanards from Visima went up the road. And then to keep shenanigans from happening, according to him, Mark Sillair followed him, didn't want to be up there, had to do it. He had a teammate in Mikkelberg. It looked kind of clever because you're thinking, well, there's a hard climb before the final climb. Now both riders of stash, both GC riders of stash teammates, they can help them if they need them on the final climb.

Victor Campanard actually gets a flat, has some issues, with the neutral service car, they leave him behind, he's on a neutral bike, he's out of the breakaway, goes back to the Belton, Solair stays up there. And then on the, on the penultimate climb, very difficult climb, Juan Euso takes the front for UAE and just absolutely shreds the field, like Egan Bernal's dropped, Julia Chaconne's dropped, slims it down. The time gaps were a little unclear, so I wasn't quite sure how they were going to play it with Solera up the road, but they have a, they have good support at the front. way he does for ameda they get to the final climb we have the same guys j vines up there pulling

felix squirrel shotner is interesting the last person pulling for almeda so we have a strange situation where uae is polling and then now mark saler after doing the oh mark saler i guys i'm not that strong i'm getting dropped from this breakaway is now off the front by himself he's the actually the strongest of the breakaway surprise but see if uae chasing uae but it's kind of complicated because it's a headwind So it's not obvious that Almeida can even attack. It's not even obvious that it's worth it for Saler to drop back. It looks strange, but it pays off because Solair stays away for the stage win. At some point, Jai Henley ends up putting Giulio Pellizari on the front,

which itself is tricky because Pellizari is fighting for his own G.C position, but his pace really starts shrinking that gap to Solair. Saler does stay away, wins a stage. Jai Henley launches an attack inside the last kilometer, slightly distances Tom Pickock by about 10 seconds, but he loses time because, as we saw yesterday, Almeda and Vindigard are the strongest. Vindigard comes around Almeida at the finish, which makes it look smart that they had Salaer up the road because he took the 10 second time bonus for the win.

Vindigard only gets six. Almeida gets four. So he loses two seconds, but they come in together. Johan, another UAE win. This is getting out of hand, but what's your takeaway from the day? day. Yeah, I mean, as you said it, Spencer, takeaway of the day is seven stage win of UAE out of 14 stages. So 50% of the stages so far in the VALTA have been won by a UAE rider, which is quite impressive. And to me today, I mean, I think the performance of Mark Sillard was quite impressive.

This is a guy that when he's in the break and he gets the green light, he is really strong. And today he was super strong. He didn't lose that much time today in the final until Red Bull Bora started to pull. But yeah, it seems like everything seems to work for UAE, you know, because I am 100% sure that this was not part of the plan today, at least not going with Solera for the stage win, that it was decided on the go once they saw that he was in the break. And so things that they don't even try seem to work for them. We can say, you know, we can criticize them all day long, right? At the end of the day, today they got their 80th win of the season, 8-0, not 1-8, 8-0, 7-stage win. And as a team, I have to say today, I liked what I saw

from UE. They looked solid. You can say, well, you know, why is it? Mark Salar in the break when, you know, he's not been on domestic duty in other stages. But they didn't need him today. I think another thing that I really remarked was that finally Juan Ayuso rose up to the level that we expect him to be in terms of a teammate. He did a really good job on that second last climb. And that's what we should see from him, you know, more often. So obviously, I think no much. matter what we have said, Spencer, and no matter what we have speculated, I cannot imagine

that the atmosphere in Team UAE is not unbelievable in the hotel, in the bus, and at the dinner table. It must be amazing. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, seven wins are a lot. You don't seem convinced. Well, we should say seven wins out of 14, but one of those stages didn't have a stage winner. So it's actually more than 50% of the stages that have had a winner. That's impressive. We should say that. Mark Salare, impressive. The reason I'm not impressed is, A, it's like, it seems like a little too much energy they're putting into stage wins. When they're within a minute of the GC, of the GC leader, and it kind of seems like momentum is on their side. But you could also argue maybe these stage wins are helping with momentum. My problem with

Saler is, let's just go back through this really quick. Stage seven, he attacks off the front for reasons unknown in the chase group to take time so like using energy not in a great way stage nine he is he's not where he's not helping almeda when vindigard puts like his biggest chunk into almeda in the gc and then he's chasing like leading the gc group home behind so he's hurting almeda's ability to distance his gc rivals there stage 10 he's dropped pretty early on the climb. Stage 11, he's off the front. Stage 12, he's off the front. Stage 13, he's not really there to help because he's tired from being off the front. Stage 14, he's off the front. It's just feels a little unfocused in some ways, especially when you're on the cusp of like toppling

Jonas Findergarde in the GC. That's where I have a hard time with it. Yeah, okay. The question then is, for me, Spencer, is the fact that if Mark Soler is with the team and doing the job that, for example, today J. Vine did or Groschartner or Mikhail Björk, is that going to change anything? I think no. And also from what I have heard is that Mark Soler is actually a writer who's really liked within the group of UAE. I haven't heard any criticism about, you know, like internal criticism, the group or in the peloton that mark soler is a selfish writer he's a strange writer he sometimes he does things that we don't understand that's different than if he's asked to do a job the guy does the job really well um so yeah i mean i i today i think they he did say and i i believe

that that he was in the breakaway without even but being part of the plan he followed Campanards, I think, who bridged across at the last moment. And then at some point, so Vizma was pulling, and we could see that Mikkel-Biurk was driving the break. So already there, they started to play on two cards. Nicol-Bierke drove really fast, the breakaway to get as much possible advantage. And the key to this for me today is, Spencer, that I think, I'm not, I don't think I'm sure that they got the word that it was a really strong head crosswind on the last climb and that an attack for on May that would be extremely difficult to distance his rivals, including Jonas. So I think that changed their plan during the stage and they decided, okay, let's just keep it under control just in case.

but let's not compromise the chances for the stage of Mark Soler. So it's actually funny to see because it's difficult to understand also if you look at it because at one point you had Nicol Björk really, really, really going super fast in the break to take a much possible advantage. Then he got dropped and he dropped back to the bunch. And then he was driving it there behind Soler. So I think they were playing on two cards until the moment that Soler really – you know, got the green light and attacked.

And I have to say when he attacked, he was impressive. You know, I mean, there was nobody who was able to follow that guy once he was going. Yeah. I mean, maybe, I mean, we should say he did the tour and he did a really good job at the tour. Like when he's with Pagachar, he just works like seamlessly for the team. So that could explain some of the like up and down. Like a lot of the riders that have come out of the tour to France look pretty beat up. Like Felix Gall, you would say is not climbing at his best.

Jonas Vindigard is not at his best. So it's possible that Salernard is like just getting his legs from the tour. And that's why he's not always been where he needs to be for Almeida. But let's just go back to the decision to get in the breakaway for a second. So Victor Campanards gets up the road. Saler and Berg go up to mark him because what happens, what would happen if they didn't do that? If Campanards gets in the break, what's the downside of that for UAE? Well, I mean, the downside would be that, I mean, Soler maybe not, but, but Björk would probably get dropped and not be there between the second last climb and the last climb.

And now he was there. Yeah. So I think Campanards was in the break to be a satellite rider, you know, who would eventually drop back if something happened. if they needed him to make a pace in between the second last climb and the foot of the last climbing just in case there was an attack of Jonas or something or if Jonas would get in trouble I don't think that's part of their scenario but you never know you know so it does happen Spencer like you know if in the beginning of the stage when you're following wheels and it's a big group what was it like 20 riders

initially or more yeah it does happen that you're in there without it being part of the plan at the beginning of a stage. Now, for a writer like Soler, I would also say, you know, for him to be in there without trying, there might be a little thought in the back of his mind. He said, okay, if I'm in the break, you never know. You know, so, but it was not part of the plan of UE. You know, the proof is that.

that once they were on, on the, with two, three kilometers to go on the second last climb, they took the lead of the race and they drove it. They pulled the whole valley and they pulled the whole beginning of the last climb. So they still wanted to try to see if Almeida could drop Jonas and eventually try to win the stage. Yeah, which, which I like, even if you're not going to attack, because there was times, I think it was like 2017, maybe. where Chris Frum was cracked, but no one did this. And then they didn't know.

Like, think of, it was like Bardei attacked maybe up to Perigood. And Frum was like immediately losing a minute. It was like, well, if you would have pressed the pace earlier, you would have figured that out. But Saler's quote is, I was covering the big moves, followed Campan Arts when he attacked to enter the break. I then kept my pace on the climb. I was waiting for instructions from behind if Schwal went clear and I needed to drop back. But in the end, I had the green light to push on and I'm pleased to take the stage. Happy birthday to my wife.

this one's for her so in theory last present in theory it's like yeah that that's kind of all makes sense i i do wonder if if they really asked him to sit up what do you've done it we'll never know we know he's he's at issues with that in the past but yeah but he he had those issues on movistar he's not going to have those issues anyway it's different i was thinking that during people were posting that that gif jiff during the stage of him protesting i'm like well waiting for joel and this scenario was a little bit different than what he had to do at that fault. But yeah, you're right. On this stage, it doesn't really hurt them tomorrow, not a GC day likely, and then rest day.

So it kind of makes sense when you just like sit and let and really think about it. Plus, I mean, I seem to remember Spencer that Mark Soler is one of those guys that, you know, he goes in a break and he goes in another break and he gets second in a stage and third in a stage. And then you say, this guy must be exhausted. And the day after, he's again in the break and wins. Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's that kind of rider. I mean, he's like, you know, he's, he's a super diesel.

Listen, he's, you know, I've, as I said, you know, I've never heard any criticism about him for, you know, we all know the images of a movie star, you know, when it was in Andorra, I think that he was away and he got the instruction to wait. Was it for Kintana? I think it was Kintana, which. Yeah, but you know, he was a lot younger, you know, he was less experienced, super ambitious still. A lot of time has passed since. So he's gotten more professional. Yeah.

I mean, as you say, that was reminded me. I was like, that does sound familiar about him getting the break over and over again. Last year at the Vuelta, he gets third, third, third in four days. So he gets three thirds and four days from the breakaway. and then he's in the break almost every one of those days and then he wins out of the breakaway and then he keeps getting in the breakaway so yeah and also this won't affect them this same climb this same climb spencer i don't remember which here it was but the last time they went up there was david goodoo who won who was second mark saler got dropped in the last

hundred meters from from david go do is he still in the race go do go do i don't know what happened to him i can't believe i said he might finish on the podium oh my lord delete that gabriel but why is ua winning so much is they just are better than everybody it's they're on a winning role and everything seems to work i mean today was not planned for sure yeah uh and then yeah i mean they have two stage wins with j vine two stages with with with Joe Almeida, we can't call that a surprise. I mean, we know that these guys have it in them. So, yeah.

Two stage wins with I use. I use so. Are you so? Are you so two stage wins? Jay Vine two stage wins. Almeida won now Solair and then the team time trial. And it's in time trial. So now they just need Evo Olivier to win a stage.

They need to be a shortener to win a stage. Could they make the clean sweep? Mikkelberg, Dumb and Novak. I don't know. They might be able to do it. No, no, no. But I guess it does show you. Something tells me it's not the last stage they're going to win.

Yeah. I mean, is this at some point, and maybe it's potentially so chaotic and just like, it's like free watching someone like do free jazz. It doesn't matter. But are the other teams going to get mad at them at a certain point? Like what the heck, guys? Lisa for the rest of us.

I don't mean, I don't think they've stolen any of those seven wins, you know? It's like they, they race for them. They fought for them. It's not like. It's different people a lot of the times. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

I have to say, you know, another thing that I really, really remarked today is that, whereas Visma looked to be really, really the dominant team in the mountains until stage 9, 10, the last two stages, it seems to me that UAE is definitely up there. at the same strength, sometimes even a bit stronger in the mountains than collectively, I would say, right? I mean, Jay Vine today, first of all, I use so, Mickleby, our amazing job, but Jay Vine and especially Felix Grosshardner, yesterday and today, extraordinary, extraordinarily performance. And if I looked it up, I mean, Felix Grosshardner has already done several times, stopped in in the world, though. so you know it's it's uh he's obviously he's in a different role now but um he's he's on an unbelievably good level yeah i mean really really good pickup there for them um guys very strong

yeah i you do start to see this like matteo jorgensen i don't know if he's sick but like he was dropped early today lost quite a bit of time he's still top 10 he's 10th but it does kind of feel like vizma i mean he's another guy that did the tour like you just kind of feel fatigue from Vizma. A lot of it probably is because their team is largely recycled from the Tour de France. I kind of wonder, are they

going to start feeling fatigue more than the rest as they get. Who did the tour? So, Victor Campanars did the tour. Jonas Jorgensen. Sepp Coos. Sepp Coos? Yeah. Jorgensen. It's largely just the same team. They've run back.

And then they have, then they have Vombardle, they have to let Calderman and who's the other guy? I don't remember now. Well, what's funny is Ben Tulett is actually one of their key mountain domestics. Yeah. Yeah. Maybe because he's fresh. He's had a bit, the last two days, he was not as impressive as the week before, but still, yeah, he's still, uh, he's still on a really good level.

But did we say, Wilco Calderman? I think he might be the last one. I mean, they're down a ride or two, remember, because they lost somebody at the start of the race. They lost Axel Zingled. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. At the start of the race. Only seven riders left. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.

So I don't know. It's just something to keep an eye on, because you're right, UAE does look stronger in a lot of these mountain situations. And Vizma, if I just had to sum them up in one word, it would be fatigue. Because even Jonas, I mean, the guy is incredible.

But you do get the feeling like, is he hanging on? And that GC group today, so you had Grochartner on the front, Pelazari comes forward with Jai Henley. They're thinking we got to get rid of Tom Pitcock. The first sign that something wasn't quite right or ripe for an attack is Torsten Trine, was on the back, was in that front group for quite a long time, which, as you said, it's because the headwind is so strong. It means it's so relatively easy to sit in the group versus set the pace on the front. It's very hard to get rid of people. it's very hard to attack with the headwind and that pelazari comes to the front

hinley goes and like yeah if hinley would have gone two kilometers further out i don't know if it gets any more time because of that headwind and they did kind of look tired from doing the angrily loo the baby the hardest climate you can see also i mean it was basically like it was basically like an echelon you know they were they were they were all in the line you could see the wind coming from the left. And, yeah, I mean, you know, I also think that, you know, once again, Jonas did not attack. That's why I'm saying, you know, does it mean he couldn't? I think, I think, yes, I think it means he couldn't.

The strong headwind, obviously, was a big factor. I think Jonas is in good shape. But this is not prime Jonas Wingergaard. I have to say it's probably going to be still good enough to win the Vuelta but for now I think he's not as dominant

as we expected him to be before the Vuelta because before the Vuelta I think everybody said well there's no way Vingegaard can lose this race I still think he's in a great position but it's not that big of a lead

as I thought it would be after Angli Rue and today stage. Well, what is very common in the first week of a grant tour is people say, oh, these time gaps don't matter. There's me minutes, minutes in the mountains. Have you looked at the parkours? What we're seeing over and over again is you actually get to these stages and these two guys are locked together. Like, I don't know if they'll be able to put any time into each other for the rest of the race until we get to the time trial because we basically have copy and pasted versions of the same stage over and over again.

Stage 16 is slightly more dynamic, but stage 17, it's, it's one of these Uniperto climb, these just one big climb at the end of the day. I think this comes out of the time trial and like, I do. And Bola del Mundo. Spencer, do not underestimate Bola del Mundo. I said it from the beginning. I keep saying it. That's hard, man. That's really, really hard. It's super steep. this might be a hot take but is hard is hard good for yonaz vindigard because we saw him get

beat on the hardest climb in this race yeah i'm i think it is i think it is uh i just think i mean listen jowal meada is in great shape i think uh and and yonas is not in his 100% shape you know and if you're 95% uh let's not forget you joel meada we said before the tour spencer if you remember that Jao Al-Meda might be the third best stage racer in the world before the Tour de France Yeah, you know

he crashed out of the tour started the Vuelta and you know he's a great rider so I think I think it's gonna I mean it makes it an interesting race I mean right now what is it

48 seconds, 46 seconds it was 46 of the started today now it's 48 48 so yeah and then third place is almost two minutes behind um yeah so we're happy he's here that's going to be the interesting interesting race also the for for for the podium you know it looks like j hindley is coming into his last week typical round tour mode uh tom pitcock is holding on he was struggling today you know damage that limited the damages uh 10 seconds 12 seconds seconds to Jay Hindley, probably?

It was to Jay Henley. It was 10 seconds, which actually, I was writing these time differences out, kind of bigger than you'd think. So Almeida loses two seconds. Henley loses 10 seconds to Vindigard with the time bonuses. Gall loses 15 seconds. Pitcock loses 20 and then 10 to Henley. But that was basically all in the last couple hundred meters of the climb.

Yeah. Yeah, I do kind of wonder. if Henley's going to run out of room? I don't know. How do you think the time trial is going to play out between those two? Is that a push? They're not great time draw.

It's both of them. But it's the freshness at the end of the ground tour. Although, you know, it is a flat time draw. So it's for specialists. But yeah, I mean, stage 18, man. Guys who are in G.C. have always been in front in a time trial,

whether it was flat or up and down or hilly. I don't know. I mean, they're both not known to be great time for allists, but I'd say probably a slight advantage, Jay Hindley, for the time, for the TT. Yeah. I mean, that's going to be interesting to watch. I did pick how made it to win this.

And I don't know. I'm not given up hope. I believe him. I might believe in him more than is the manager. at UAE does. I think the man has been believed in him. They believe in him. I mean,

listen, at the end of the day, we're speculating here. What these guys know that we don't know is there are real numbers, right? They know what kind of numbers are made us producing. And it's probably going to be very close to his best ever. Yeah. I mean,

if Tom Pickock's saying he's doing his best ever power on these stages, they must be, how made it must be flying. Absolutely flying. I was talking about Vinegard. Let's say he wins this. Let's say it's close. Is this his first, let's call it like dog fight G.C. win in a grand tour?

Because his two tour wins, he kind of did so with like big axe wings. I think about like these knockout blows and then he just kind of like defended the lead. It is kind of an unusual position for him to be in. Like this is a Roglitch type position. Like, okay, you have 48 seconds going to the last week. go defend this like is a different way of racing it's definitely a different way racing but it's also the Vuelta's different than the tour you know it's it's quite impressive to see we we talked about it before the show Spencer you know he did his first

grand tour uh was it 2020 when he was uh he did the Valta yeah yeah finished it nobody knew it knew him uh you know he did this great stage on on Angliru for Primo's Roglidge. And from then on, he has never done a grand tour where he was not first or second. That's pretty impressive. That's super impressive. That's unbelievable. Like, there's only one other rider in the sport with that type of grant tour consistency,

and it's tied to Pagacchar. Do you know Pagachar's worst ever finish in a grand tour? Third. Third place. Never finished off the podium. And he's done one, two, three, four, five. six, seven. So him and Vindigard are just, I don't know what it is. I couldn't tell you why exactly they're like this, but they just have a freakish level of consistency that other

people don't. Anything else? Actually, we should say, so Israel Premier Tech, I know, you and I misremember. We saw the future, perhaps. We thought they took Israel off the jersey before the start of this season. They did not, but they started today with, there was no Israel on the Jersey, but the team is still called Israel Premier Tech. Do you think this will help the protest? No. No. They should have started the race

with that off. No, I don't think it will help. Are you sure it was just that started today? Are you sure about that? Yeah. Yeah. But I also it's like a Mandela effect. I remembered them taking it off, but there's like multiple news

articles today about them starting with out it and it was gone before the start of the stage. Yeah, I know, I know they, I know they did it already on the vehicles, especially on the bus and the truck, the trucks and the vehicles, but no, no, it's not going to change anything. I mean, we have to say, okay, it seems that the protests have slowed down a bit. There was one at the beginning, no, in the neutralization. Yeah. There was one big one, but it seems that it's calmed down, which is obviously.

obviously, you know, it's good for the Volta. So, yeah, I mean. I'm now checking to make sure I'm correct on this. Yes, so they did announce this morning. They're switching jerseys. Okay. I thought for the first time of this Valta, the protesters weren't the problem. These normal fans on these climbs, like, it's close quarters.

I was quite nervous, actually, at times about these riders. I mean, I made it had a guy running, running, like, in the Peloton with him. Yeah. It was a Portuguese flag, no? Yeah. Like, what are we doing? I saw it out of there. Yeah.

Yeah, it is. You actually, I feel like it's quite a bit different than Italy. I feel like there's a respect, maybe present between the fans and the Peloton more that is your to tell you than at the Vuelta, where it feels a little chaotic at times. I mean, the Basque, for example, the crowds are always big. And, you know, I, but they do respect the riders a lot. Yeah. I still vividly remember, you know, as a young professional, the first time I had to deal with this kind of experience was in the tour of the Basque Country. The first year I went to the tour of the Basque Country had never ridden on a climb with that kind of public.

And, you know, basically you get there, you see a wall of people. And you need to get used to that, man. It's kind of freaky at the beginning. You know, you get there. You don't know if you're going to pass and they just open at the last moment. Yeah. But in general, in Spain, I think the fans are more respectful. I mean, I think the craziest stuff we see at the tour.

You know, it's so many people. And people are there way, you know, like one, two days before, you know, they have parties. They usually have been drinking all morning already. So we sometimes see, yeah. I mean, you don't see, I always have to laugh. Like, you know, we don't see these crazy adults running. in whatever a bora tank a borat borat swimsuit yeah yeah yeah you're right it's a little yeah yeah i mean garin thomas was talking i he was like what do they do up there so you're up there for like

three days like what do you how you pass in the time it's like that is i always have to think at one thing spencer you know these are grown men and they have kids imagine as a child seeing your father running up mountain you know yeah what was whatever whatever you know you know undiscovered that should be covered well remember this guy juseppe gerini and he was on top of abduez and he just got yeah absolutely pegged by a spectator yeah by a photographer yeah yeah yeah i was worried that that was going to happen today and he still won the stage right yeah yeah yeah 99 yeah Shout out, Giuseppe Grini. That was an awesome recovery.

But anything else on the stage before you move on? No, that's it. All right. I mean, Finlay Pickering, shout out. That guy was hanging on. I was like, are they ever going to catch this guy? So apparently he was like a late start, another one of these like late call-ups to the race. Okay.

Which is interesting to see these riders doing so well. But let's take a quick break and we'll preview stage 15. Okay, Johan, we're back. Stage 15, 168 kilometer. I guess I would call this a transition stage. Day before the rest day starts on a 16 kilometer long climb, only 5%. Everyone who says only 5% should then have to go out and ride a 16K long 5% climb. And it's like rolling to downhill into the finish as a sprint point, bonus seconds climb and then descends into the finish.

This actually, we had a very similar stage in 2021, won by Magnus Court in a breakaway about 15 seconds ahead of a group of sprinters, like a large Pelot, Thomas. sprinters in it. I'll list off the favorites and then we'll get your take on who's going to win. This is on Fandwell in the U.S. I've been finding the price is slightly better on Fandual. Mads Pedersen at plus 240, Jasper Philipson plus 500, Victor Kampinard's plus 2000, Nico Denz plus 2,000, Ben Turner plus 2,700, Ethan Vernon plus 2,700, Javier Romo plus 3,500. Goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. Again, if you want to bet, go to NXDbats.com slash bet outcomes you'll see where you can bet where you live and the best sign of bonuses for each book but how do you think this plays out johan and who do you think wins i don't know how it's

going to play out but i'm going to pick someone who can win in both scenarios and that's matt's peterson yeah that's a good pick you know i think he can win from a breakaway and he can win when it's a group sprint although i have to say for matt's peterson from now on to win from a breakaway is not easy it's not going to be easy because everybody knows what he's you know how strong he is and there's always that one guy that can't slip away right but because because he can win from both scenarios and he's positive 250 I'm going to pick him to win the stage yeah I'm I'm going to pick him too I think we could see you know like we did the other day like 50 riders up the road you're going to have phillipson chasing behind with alpison i don't know

how much phillipson has left i don't know how much alpison has left i think if the group is big enough it's going to be hard and i think if peterson gets enough teammates he can do this he very simple reason he looks very strong like when you watch these stages when he's in the early breakaway he's pulling like twice as hard as everybody else like he just clearly has a lot left. And at this point of the Volta, I don't know if a lot of people have a lot left. So I think he can do it. But I do have a wild card. You mentioned someone slipping away. I think that someone could be Nico Denz. We saw him do exactly that at the zero earlier this year. He won two stages of the 2023 zero in similar type of stages. So Denz is my hedge against

Pedersen not coming through with the win. Okay. Yeah. That's a good, that's a good alternative. and I'm going to do the same. I'm going to go over Victor Kampenards. Yeah, yeah. That's good. Be in the break and then slip away at the end. He's strong. He's done it already.

And maybe Vizma is going to start to say, you know what? Enough of this UAE bullshit winning their stages. You know, we're also sending guys in the break and go for stage wins. And I think Kampanarts is the ideal man to win from a breakaway plus 2,200. And what you, yeah, I do think that eventually think I'm like, this is bullshit. I want to win. And as you said about Salar, Campan arts being up the road does not negatively affect Vindigard tomorrow. No, absolutely.

And it's a rest of the next day. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's a very good, there's a good chance of that happening. What do you think about? I just want to check in on the overall odds really quick. So I'm just glancing at Fandul. Jonas Vindigard minus 425.

So very heavy favorite. Shvala made a plus 360. I don't think of anyone else. realistically can win the overall. No. With those odds, who would you pick to win the overall at this point? Logic says, Jonas. It's also going to become more and more difficult for the one and the other to drop each other,

especially Almeida, dropping Jonas, you know? And then he has to make up 50 seconds in a time trial, basically. Well, I mean, they could be equal in the time trial. Well, you mean, you mean not... Like if... Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that seems to get hard. I don't think he can make up 50s.

He's not going to make up 50 seconds on Jonas in the time trial. I think they're kind of similar when Jonas is in great to the front shape, probably advantage Jonas. yeah maybe amade i can take a bit of time on yonnas in the time drop it's not good if he does if he does at all it's not going to be much 15 seconds or something yeah he probably would have to drop him on one of these climbs yeah and even at his current form it kind of seems hard to see vinaigard getting dropped but i'm i'm already in the amade a boat so i'm sticking i'm not bailing yet but you picked omeda before the start

part of the wealth i know yeah maybe don't so you have to this boat with me if it's already in it no one should be like jumping into this boat with me right now but if you're already in it don't give up hope yeah no no it's still possible all right joan anything else before you take off no that's it we don't have a show tomorrow yeah no show tomorrow we'll be back on monday we'll be back on monday on the rest day we'll see who we can and maybe it's just us maybe it's us plus other we do people. Probably just us.

I have a slight suspicion. It's going to be us. Yeah. What's the welta? Is this the text we're going to get back? What race is this? Three weeks. All right.

Thank you, Johan. And we will talk soon. Okay. Thanks. Bye.