THEMOVE - Is the Battle for Green Over? | TdF 2026 Stage 12 | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: July 16, 2026

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin discuss Tim Merlier's sprint victory on Stage 12 and go through the interesting attacks we saw before the final sprint. They also continue to break down the Green Jersey battle before previewing tomorrow's unusual Stage 13. Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team KetoneAid: Go to http://KetoneAid.Com/THEMOVE for 15% off Nextbets: Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/ Ventum: Use code TheMove10 for 10% off anything at: https://ventumracing.com/

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Visit O-D-O-D-com to book a demo. It's O-D-O-O-O-O-O-com. finds the space, launches his sprint, and wins again dominantly. You know, when he didn't even wait until the finish line to celebrate. It was already like five minutes before the finish line. Five minutes before. Yeah, no, it was, yeah, it was actually surreal to watch because it looked close and then he's celebrating. But he must have known he had it.

I mean, so third win of this tour, six stage two or stage of his career. And he's only started three tour to France's. That's shocking. And it didn't go to the tour between 2020, 22, 23, and 24. He was absent from this race. But, Yo, I've been waiting all day to ask you this question. Is he the best sprinter in the world right now? Yeah.

The best pure sprinter for sure. Everybody, welcome back to the move plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernal. We are breaking down stage 12 of the tour de France. One by Tim Merlier over Olaf Coy and Jasper Philipson in the final sprint. finish. We'll see this of this tour. We'll discuss that. It's his third stage win of the tour. He's the best pure sprinter. He's probably not going to win the green jersey, which we'll talk about,

which Matt Spetterson still has. We'll also preview stage 13. And Johan, I do want to get your take on the sprint finish, but I also want to back this up all the way to the beginning of the stage with the break formation was pretty interesting. The intermediate sprint sprint, which was interesting, which was won by not Petterson. Petters. won it out of the Peloton because there was a single breakaway away. Baptiste Versterhofer, Verstrofer, was away. Weistrofer. Such an unusual name for a Frenchman.

The most attacking rider of the whole to the France, right? He deserves some sort of prize because he's always out there. But tell me what you thought about this breakway formation and then the intermediate sprint. Yeah, I mean, the break that was kind of, uh, to be expected. First, Weistrofer was by himself, and then these other three guys joined later on. I think the first, you know, really interesting fact of the day

was the intermediate sprint. Weistrofer gets to 25 points, but then we saw the sprint of the favorites for the green jersey, Pedersen, Philipson, Koi, Girmai, counter. I don't know, I mean, no, Koi, I don't know if Koi was trying to get points. I don't remember that now. But anyways, there was some, I mean, Pedersen won that sprint in front of Philipson. But there was some controversy during the stage.

We could see, first of all, when you look at the helicopter shot, you can see Matt Spederson, starting in the middle of the road, drifting bit by bit to the right side of the road. With Phillipson on the wheel, Philipson was not next to him. And there was a debate, you know, whether he would be disqualified. I could see that Patterson got called to the race director or the jury car, which is the second time now we see this in this Tour de France. I mean, usually they just take action and they don't talk to you. You know, we saw this with the lotto guy.

Remember the lotto guy who got a warning for illegal armed position in the early stages? Today also. Then I saw this interaction between the team car of Little Trek and Peterson saying, you know, well, they're looking at the images. Maybe they're going to relegate you for the sprint. And then finally, you know, he got the sprint, got the 20 points. And I just saw in the official race communication that he got a warning. You know, when I looked at that, Spencer, I thought it was a bit of a stretch to consider disqualifying him.

whatever we see is a moment image of, of, you know, of course, we're watching. The guys who really know most what going on is the guys who are in the heat of the action. For me personally, without looking at the images, the fact that they sprinted and that the guy who got beaten, Philipson, straight away, congratulated Matt Spaderson, tells me that there was nothing going on. it was just a sprint, you know, and otherwise Peterson, Phillipson would have complained and he would not have congratulated him, at least not, you know, in the heat of the action. So I think it was a bit of an exaggeration to consider disqualifying him. He did not bother anybody.

He did not put anybody at danger. He did definitely deviate from his line. That's true. But, you know, all sprinters do. But as we discussed, I know, having PTSD. Remember we were going to the rules? It's not lying. It's deviating from your lane, which is a little bit different than a line. So yeah, yeah, was it lane? Was it lying? Who knows? No, it was both. It was both. It was both, Spencer. I love that they. It was middle of the road

to the fence. Yeah, he went over to the fence. I love that they talk to the guys, though. That's, it's so much better than just some decision that's made and then it's done. So I support that. Yeah. So that was important. Peterson gets to 20 points. Philipson is just be. So Philipson gets third and Girmai only gets sixth.

So it looks to me like Girmai is probably the most dangerous rival for, for Pedersen for the green jersey. But, but anyway, I'm going to talk about the sprint afterwards. I think, I think after today, Pedersen is the heavy favorite for. the green jersey. Yeah, we'll talk about this later, but I think, I think the, this, the hidden takeaway of the day is that Matt's Petterson won the intermediate, won the green jersey, but we'll get our thoughts on that later. What did you think about Tim Rler's win? Pretty impressive. Where's this guy coming from in these sprints? Yeah, well, before we talk about the sprint, Spencer, I, you know, okay, takeaway of the day, Patterson, but my take of the day, actually,

my move of the day is Quinn Simmons but not for his attacking because of this picture here if Gabriel can put it up on screen I mean the guy started to attack in the final part of the little track strategy but he was

going and he saw his father and while he was attacking on front of the peloton he high fives his dad I mean that's like that's that's very unique this picture I've ever seen that. Yeah, I mean, I've never seen this. I've never seen this.

But that's my move of the day. The attack and while, high-fiving while he attacks when you see your father, who, by the way, looks exactly the same as Quinn Simmons. Or, I mean, probably the other way around. Quinn Simmons looks exactly the same as his dad. They kind of look in similar age and similar fitness levels. I feel like his dad could be racing professionally. I've heard that his dad is incredibly fit.

of a great cyclist. I think he's a skier, no? He's like a mountaineer skier. Yeah, they call like Schemo, ski mountaineering, which I've heard makes cycling seem really easy. It's that aerobically taxi. Well, I think, if I'm not mistaken, I think Quinn Simmons was third in the World Championships junior Schemo.

That would make sense. Because I think he's heard him on Garrett Thomas's podcast. And he said his goal is, to go to the Winter Olympics in Schemo. So he must be very good. Yeah. Wow. And I would actually love to see him try.

We'll see. Hopefully any teams that he go to are okay with him spending his time during that. But I think I told the story on here. I did a race against his dad. And he came by so fast that I thought it was a joke. And then we just never saw him again. So it wasn't very long ago. So you've seen you've seen how good he is.

Okay. Yeah. And he like yelled like a cowboy yeha. when he came by us. I was like, oh, that's a funny thing to do. What was it?

He's going like a gravel race or something? It's called Iron Horse. It's a road race. It's a really historic road race in Durango where they're from. And it goes from Durango to Silverton, which is an old mining town. And it's like multiple mountain pass is a very unique and cool race that I believe Ned Overrin won like many times.

That's like Net Overin's claim to fame. Other than being mountain bike world champion. But Johan, Quinson, And before we talk about the end of the stage where Quinn Simmons was lighting it up, was Quinn Simmons, would anything have helped him with his performance today? Is there anything you want to talk about? Yeah, we have a new sponsor, Spencer, for the remainder of the Stour de France, ketone 8. You know, everybody knows about ketones and, you know, most of the riders, if not everybody,

in professional cycling and in most endurance sports, take ketones before the race after the stage, especially for recovery. So we have ketone 8 on board for the Studeau France. And in ketone 8 is actually one of the first, if not the first manufacturer who actually marketed a ketone ester. It's a little bit less known to the consumers, but it's for sure very well known by the pros. Me personally, I have still quite some connections in the Peloton.

And people have asked me about ketones. I've been using ketone 8 for quite a while. It's a small bottle. This is 25 grams of ketone ester. You can just take a little bit. You don't have to chuck down the whole bottle. Just take a little. This has 10 servings.

You know, when people ask me family, friends, I usually recommend ketone 8. It's great to have them now as a formal sponsor, but it's usually what I have recommended. They're also the official sponsor, ketone sponsor of two-the-france teams, Sudar Quistep, and XDS Astana. They're their official ketone sponsor. But I do know that there are several teams and individual riders who actually purchase ketone as an individual, because they prepare this compared to other more diluted versions that are out there on the market. Sometimes even the ones that are sponsored by other products, other ketone products, they buy ketone 8. You know, it's an ester.

This is the key. It's the ester bond. Most of the other products out there are ketone salts or ketone dials, and they don't work as well as the ester. So for our The Move listeners, there's a special action during the Tour de France. You either scan the QR code here on the screen or you go to ketone8.com and use the code the move at checkout for 50% off, 15% off. This is a very special offer because ketone 8 usually never offers discounts, not even during Black Friday. So ketone8.com slash the move for 15% off.

Not even the teams are getting a discount. They're buying this thing at full price. Exactly. And you're going to get a discount at ketone 8. dot com slash the move but yeah i've actually heard the same thing joan that i've been poking around and there's some teams that are buying their own ketones who are sponsored by ketone yeah ketone companies which is kind of interesting um yeah fascinating well and there's another products we'll talk about it later there's there's actually some interesting stuff with nutrition

going on that we will get into in future episodes but the finish of this stage quid quin simmons jacked up on ketones coming into these final climbs this was way more active than i thought it would be. I was, did not expect this and it looked like a one day race almost. You had Simmons and Matthias Feichick trying to split it on a climb before the last cat, before the categorized climb, which is 2.5K at 4%, which I didn't think was going to be hard enough. Nothing really stuck, but it was just a lot of attacking and even Matt's Pedersen was attacking at one point with Vizma closing it down, which I didn't understand at all. But what was your take on on this? Yeah. I mean, It's a little track who instigated these attacks, and they kept attacking, even with Skelmosa.

It was, you know, Jesus. Yeah. So they obviously had a plan to make it hard and to try to really disorganize the Peloton. Not so much, I think, for Pedersen to win the stage, but to create a situation where the points were not available for the real sprinters. I think that was their tactic. And so, of course, they had to try. It was hard there for a while. It was different, different groups.

When Simmons was very active, Vachek was very active. Even people, Ghana was in the breakaway. I mean, you had Ghana up there pulling as hard as he could. Like, you know that that's hard. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I think it was, it was a good initiative. At the same time, you know, you need significant hard terrain to drop these printers nowadays. I mean, that's not enough.

It's not enough. Especially if it's been a race which has been relatively easy in the wheels, you know, they can, these printers can get over those little climbs. It's short, you know, it's two, three minute efforts. They can do that. It's not easy to drop a sprinter in this, in today's cycling. The funny thing is, if we all rode, if, you know, if we went out as a big, the move plus group and did this course, the end of the stage, we'd say there's no way they come in together. It's too hard. Like that's always my impression when I ride these courses.

And it's actually shocking what these sprinters can withstand. The speed that they were going and the train they were going over, you would think would explode a group. And it didn't really affect the sprinters, as we saw. Because they came into the sprint. Alpison DeKonic, as we, I think we talked about this yesterday. There's no GC teams. So it leaves it up to these sprint teams. They have to take it up from so far out.

Alpison DeKonek, I thought they timed it perfectly, they shoot up with a kilometer left. They've got multiple leadout riders for Jasper Philipson. And then Tim Merlier, as he has been doing at this tour, just kind of appears out of nowhere. He is one guy, Jasper Stoeven, who had a flat tire guiding him through the sprint. And Murieler just times it perfect. When's the sprint? What was your take on that? Yeah.

I mean, once again, we saw, you know, close to perfect leadout from Alpacin, you know. Yeah. They had five riders, you know, and then Philipson just not, it's not. just the Jasper Philipson we are used to see in the Tour de France. And I think I haven't seen it, but I've read somewhere in his post-race interview that he admits himself that, you know, there's a few sprinters who are just faster than him right now, you know. Fair play to him, he admits it. I think it's obvious.

It's obvious. But, yeah, this is not the Philipson that we have seen in former Tour de France editions. And then, yeah, Marlir, man. Listen, he's in a league of his own. He finds his own. He has the team that controls the breakaway. And then he just has Jasper Stuyven in the final. And just uses Jasper Stuyven to bring him within the last kilometer, basically.

Although today, Stuyven did a great job. And he actually brought him a lot closer than that. But Merleer, for some reason, sometimes loses the wheel. By the way, amazing performance of Steuven. He did exactly the same for Paul Manier in the Giro. So this is a guy who comes from the Gero, then had a few amazing stages in breakaways and is still in this Tour de France on an incredibly high level, especially for these stages. I don't think we're going to see Jasper Steuven at the same individual level in this

Tour de France as we saw him in the Gero because I've heard that he's quite tired. But, you know, he did really a great job. I mean, that was a really good transfer, you know, from Sudol. Sudhaar. Really, really good transfer. It came from a little trek, right? Yeah. Yeah. And then Merlir, you know, he has this ability to just surf the wheels, find, find his spot. And even if he think he's out of position today, for example, that's how fast this guy is as soon as he gets a clear road. I think it was probably within, it was a bit hectic and there was a lot of movement.

And I think in the last 200 meters at some point, Merlier is kind of stuck between, he has the free wheel to avoid a crash. So obviously you lose speed. It was kind of a ballastine act and he kind of managed to pass that guy and then just went and, you know, finds the space, launches his sprint and wins again dominantly. You know, when he didn't even wait.

until the finish line to celebrate. It was already like five minutes, five meters before the finish line. Yeah. Yeah. No, it was. Yeah, it was actually surreal to watch because it looked close and then he's celebrating. But he must have known he had it. I mean, so third win of this tour, six stage,

six stage of his career. And he's only started three tour to Francis. Uh-huh. That's shocking. And it didn't go to the tour between 20, 22, 23 and 20, 24. He was absent from this race. But, Johan, I've been waiting all day to ask you this question. Is he the best sprinter in the world right now?

Yeah. The best pure sprinter for sure. You know, especially, I mean, listen, the last three stages, I mean, no, yesterday, whereas, uh, whereas your virtual won. But, uh, whenever he gets a position, position, then he gets a chance to sprint freely, he wins. His speed is just faster than everybody else, his top speed. And, you know, winning three stages, that's not easy, man. It's going to, I think it's going to remain three stages.

I mean, I wonder if he goes to Paris now or not, because that's another thing, Spencer. We should talk about that also. We've now done stage 12. Today was stage 12, no? Yeah. Yes. There are no more stages for sprint. for bunch prints no more i've never seen never seen anything like that yeah yeah i've never seen

anything like that so we've had five so far merleers won three coys one one one varin schold has won one so i mean shout out to those like to those guys because there's only two other sprinters who have won a stage here one of them not being yasper phillipson so like it's super impressive two of one merleers won three of the five that's all that's amazing i can't I can't believe we're done, though. What an odd design. And without a leadout train, without a leadout train. That's even more.

I know. And with a tired, a tired old man is his only lead out who seems, I mean, what Stoeven is doing. I'm now looking back through his, the Giro was amazing. I forgot about the breakaways where he almost won a stage. And then remember he got third at Perry Rubet? He did get third to Paris Rubet. Sixth that Flanders. Like, geez.

Yeah. What a year from that guy. Wow. No, it's, it's unbelievable what Sudol Quickstep is done. They've made, as Lance would say, they've made chicken salad out of chicken shit because this was not a great tour for sprinters. They didn't have a great lead out. And they've won three stages, three of the five. Have you ever seen a tour, though, where the final sprint stage is stage 12?

Well, we assume, right? I mean, I've checked. There's one stage where it's a little bit like cut three and stage 17. could be, but by then, by stage 17, Spencer, there's no way. There's no more teams who can control it. It could be a reduced punchprint won by Matt Spaderson, for example. That's a possibility. That is a possibility.

So I've studied this stage for this exact reason. The other thing to think about, there's going to be so many desperate teams and riders that I just don't, I think it's going to be breakaway. But there is a 2.5K long 4% climber right before the finish. That would be ashamed to control the whole stage for your sprinter and they get dropped 2K from the finish line. But I mean, yeah, I think that's it, right? Because we're both, it's our house view that Paris is not a sprint stage. No, no, no, no way, no way. I mean, I heard you guys talk about maybe Giedemai being a candidate in Paris.

No, he's not a candidate at all. Gidermite cannot win that stage. No way. there's another cycling podcast that said it's a merlier day in paris no it's not a merrier day at all what if if i may defend anyone for thinking that it's because they're looking at the profile and when you look at the profile it kind of looks like it's reasonable but if you watch the final stage last year it's so violent on those yeah i mean it was last year also was it was bad weather but you know i mean i just have in the back of my mind spencer and thinking about

the stage the stage in Paris you know that's one of the races that Bogachar lost last year I know he's coming for it it's going to be different you know going to be different he's going to want to win there I know he's going to go for that do you know the last who's the last yellow jersey

to win in Paris do you know this off the top of your head? Better not he know probably like yes exactly 1982 or he won on the Champsouet He no one twice. Once he won in a bunch print, in a bunch print.

What a badass. Yeah. And then he also, I also remember images of him and Yope Zutemalk, who was second. And it was actually, I think they just went both of them. I think, you know, went and Zutemarck followed. And both of them went to the finish. And he won also in the sprint. Wow.

Yeah. Shout out. Bernardi, no. Man, good bike rider. Yeah, animal. And you know what? I've been thinking about in my rides back to the condo. He would have won the tour the year after he lost it to Lamond. Had he race that year? You know, where you retired? I think he could have won in 1987. 87, yeah. I mean, I remember I turned pro in 87. That's the first year of retirement of Bernardino. Yeah. I think he could have won that tour. Get him out of retirement. Maybe next year. Is the year? But another odd in odds and in from the stages.

Did you know this was the eighth fastest stage of all time, today's stage? Okay. And you wouldn't even think about it, right? That shows you how fast some of these stages are. It's super fast. It's super fast. What's the average speed in 49. Something?

49.1 kilometers an hour. Quite fast. Yeah. And last sprint stage. I still can't believe that. Or likely the last sprint stage. Spencer, what do you think about the green jump? Jersey now. So the pure sprint stages are over.

You know, should we talk about that after the, after the break? Let's take a break and then we'll talk about that. So we'll be right back. Your sales order says one thing. Your inventory says another. Your spreadsheet says, good luck. O-Doo brings your business together on a single platform. From sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, visit O-D-com to book a demo. It's O-D-O-O-O-com. Your sales order says one thing. Your inventory says another. Your spreadsheet says good luck. O-Doo brings your business together on a single platform.

From sales and accounting to inventory and marketing, visit Odu.com to book a demo. It's O'DOO.com. Okay, Johan, we are back talking about the green jersey. So Mads Pedersen leaves the stage with a 40-point gap over Beniam Germay and 46 points over Jasper Philipson and 40-50 points over D. Tim Merlier. I think we can cross off

Philipson and Merleer. Germai then is the big fear. Pagotcha can't rack enough points on mount stages because there are only 20 points per finish. Do you think this is over? Or does Germai have a chance?

It's not over, but it would take something. I mean, whenever Girmai is going to take points now, Spencer, Peterson is getting, I mean, even if give my beats Peterson in one of those intermediate sprints,

Peterson is going to be second or third. Because, you know, less and less riders are now going to sprint for this. I don't know if Merleir's going to sprint for it. He's not interested at all in the green jersey. And Philipson. Philipson will probably try, I think so. But I think there are a lot of sprints or race. stages where actually Pedersen can score at the finish and the other the other riders won't.

I think that's and he is already 40 points in the lead. I mean, if if there was a chance for somebody else to win the green jersey, barring, I mean, okay, they can always be a bad luck or an illness or a crash or whatever, you know, but they should have been ahead of Pedersen now and not 40 points behind. Yeah, like Germai took five points on Pedersen today. Yeah. And this was the perfect stage for him. So I don't see it, actually.

I think if Pedersen finishes the race without a catastrophic crash, he probably wins. I don't. Mathematically just gets hard. He's going to score more points. He might even still win a stage. Who knows? He could definitely win a stage. He's very, very strong.

Very strong. He could win just stages that are even in the ballpark form would be stage 21. Stage 17. Yeah. Tomorrow, perhaps? I don't think so. I don't think so.

Ballon does us. I don't think he's getting over. Over Balon d'Azzas with, I mean, there's going to be someone, even if he's in the break, there's going to be someone who climbs a lot better than Peterson. Yeah. No, I don't see him winning today tomorrow. Well, hold that thought when we get there. So is that art, I think that's it on stage 12, right?

Yeah. So yeah. So let's do, let's take a little break for Ventum trivia and then we'll preview tomorrow's stage 13. So yesterday's question, also Ventum trivia, if you answer the question at Ventum Racing.com slash the move, you get a $5,000 credit toward a Ventim bike of your choice. That could be an NS1, a GS1 is a road model.

GS1 is the gravel model. And while you're there, you can shop using code the Move 10 to get 10% sent off any bike on their website. So remember ventum racing.com slash the move to enter the answer to the question. Yesterday's question was the best sprinter of all time. Mark Cavendish holds the all time record for true to front stage wins. How many stages did he win over the course of his career? What do you think the answer is, Johan?

It's 35. 35. I will say just in the trust tree here, I, for some reason I thought it was 36. But 35, I don't know. I felt like he was at 34. Remember it was such a big deal when he got the 34. Yeah, that's when he equalled Eddie Marx's record.

He equaled and then he didn't win one. Exactly. And then the next year after that, he got to 35. So it loses me somewhere between 34 and 36. But I knew it was more than 34. I don't know if I would have gotten that totally right. But you know what? We're not going to have to remember this record that long

because it's not going to stand for that long. For being honest. Well, it's still, Spencer, he's up to 24 now, no? Well, that's your 24? It might be 25. I think it's 24. Hold on a second. It's still 10 stages.

He has 11. No, 12 stages. He needs to win 12 stages to beat the record. 12 stages, but I mean, if we're talking just real, if he really wanted to go for it, he could knock five of those off between now and Paris.

I don't think so. I don't think so. No. But, yeah. No. How does he not win stage 14, though? How many stages do you? predict how many stages you predict pogacha will win in the steward of france total yeah i think he wins

five if i'm being realistic five yeah yeah yeah he won three already i think he wins two more stages two more yep that's probably realistic but if he really wanted to get aggressive which he should not do he could he could really press it so 35 is the record also it's harder because mark cavendish could win like near his 40s it's harder for a gc guy to do that you know sprinters can get this elongated win window today's question today's the second day in a row with the sprint finish and the last chance for many of the fastest men in the world to claim glory before the race ends when was the green jersey first introduced to the tour do you know this one off the top of your head no no no nobody did on set which means it's a good question so if you know the answer to that question go to ventumracing

dot com slash the move and shop while you're there with the move 10 to get 10% off but joan speaking of future stages stage 13 tomorrow longest stage of the tour actually 2006 kilometers yeah 205 point where where are where are the real man right bikes come on 205k the longest stage of the tour what happened come on it is really different isn't it and even some of these stages i'm joking it's it's a good thing It's a good thing. It is definitely a good thing. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. First of all, I mean, you know, like big respect for the riders. I mean, they go so fast. You know, we want to see shorter stages and faster stages. So I'm all for that. Well, the real men, Johan, were at this year to tell you, because you won an old school race. Holy smokes. There was stages at that. This year, there was a transition stage. It was 255 kilometers long. And I had my fill. I didn't need any more of that. So I'm happy that we're in the short stages.

This is a super interesting stage. I got to say, I might be more excited for this than any other stage of this race because it's really, it's like a child drew this up. It is flat for 149 kilometers. We have a sprint point 137 kilometers into the stage. Wow. How's that going to play out? Then you have a little climb, a 5K long climb, 5%. Cole de Croix.

Then we have Ballon de Assess. I believe it's the oldest climb into her history. I believe. Could be. It's either that one or there's because sometimes people confuse with the grand ballon. Oh, yes. Well, that's that could also be that could also be the case. But, but I don't, I don't know actually.

But anyways, it's, it's, it's, you know, it's in the Alsace. It's, the climbs are not super steep. But it's still. I mean, it's, it's, it's hard enough. The sprinters can't make it. Finishes in Belfort, no? Yeah. So it's 10K, 9K long, 7%.

Then it descends down. It is 20 kilometers, basically, from the top of the climb. Sorry, 20 kilometers or 30 kilometers? Hold on one second. Hold on. One second, everybody. 176. It is.

So 30 kilometers from the top of the climb, under 20 kilometers from the bottom of the climb. So that's actually going to be really tricky because if there's still time to come back, sprinters can't get over it, finishes in Belfort. Beautiful part of the world. I actually like climbing. I like riding in this area because of what you said. There's climbs that they have length, but they're not overly steep.

Yeah. It's just a pleasant place to ride your bike. How do you think this is going to play out? I assume breakaway, but what do you think? I would think breakaway. I think break away. And then I think a lot is also going to depend on the weather. You know, we know that DeVosch are very famous for rain.

It rains a lot. Very rainy. Yes. Yeah. I've seen some weather reports, potential rain. If it rains, I think the most interesting part of the whole stage is going to be the downhill of the Balongazas. And also in the G.C. group, by the way, because that downhill is quite technical. if I'm not mistaken, if I remember correctly.

So, you know, it's, I mean, okay, it's 30-ish kilometers to the finish, but you'll have to be, you'll have to be careful there. But I think it's a breakaway stage. And is Pedersen in the breakaway or not? Is he just happy to let the points go up the road? I think Peterson's in the breakaway, yeah. Okay. And then just, I'm quoting Lance.

And all the other teams are okay with that? or do people, does Germai go with them? That would be the logical thing, right? Yeah. Some sprinters are going to be there. Yeah. I mean, they have to be in the breakaway

because, what is it, 137 kilometers, the sprint? Yeah. It's wild. Some sprinter will try to go in the break, you know? Yep.

And you know who I think will be in the breakaway tomorrow? Who? Taday Pogatja. Matthew van der Pooh. He will be in the breakaway. But, well, and. Everyone's going to be fine with this because they're going to assume the spinners can't get over that climb. But do you think Vanderpul can get over that climb?

I think so. Depending who's in the breakaway, of course. But the way I saw him ride the way I saw him ride the other day, yeah, I think he can be, I think he can, I mean, of course not. If there's a real pure climber in there, he's not going to be able to stay with him. But if it's like a breakaway day with like big engines, I think Wanderpoo can make it. I mean, I was talking to someone in the peloton that was chasing him the other day when he won the stage. And they're like, yeah, if Little Trek would have ridden smarter, we would have caught him. But I was like, I didn't want to tell him.

I was like, I think he just could have gone harder. I think he was holding back. Like he could have gone as hard as he needed to to hold off that peloton. So is that your pick to win the stage? Matthew. I mean, it's difficult. difficult pick. But yeah, I'll go Matthew van der Pooh. Okay, he's plus 1,200. My pick is Richard Carapaz plus 650.

This has got Carapaz written all over it. So the odds are plus 650, Richard Carapaz, Tadipagachar plus 1100. Matthew Vanderpull plus 1,200. Tom, Pickock plus 1,400. Paterson plus 1,600. Pitcock, but he's a little banged up, though, you know? But he's top 10, no? Is he top 10? Oh, yeah. Yeah. That's the problem. He's 10th, isn't he?

Yeah, no. No. Then he can't go in the break because the guys who are in six, seven, eight, they're going to, they're not going to let them go. Yeah. Well, you're probably asking, how did you know these odds? How did you get these odds? How do you bet on this race?

Well, that's why we partnered with next next bets. So go to nxtibets.com slash bet outcomes, and it will show you exactly where to bet. You can shop the best lines. Today, they're on draft kings. So you just click through. You can create an account, sign up, put some money down. Carapass probably would be my pick because you're right. Tom Pickock, I don't know.

Why, why Johan is he doing this? Why is he hanging on at 10th place at the expense of stages like tomorrow? I don't know. I don't know. It does make it, it makes it really hard to win a stage. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, because tomorrow, tomorrow would have been an ideal stage for him if he's like yes 20 minutes down or 30 minutes down or something you know i mean should we worry about matthias vachek or can he not get over that climb he's strong he's very strong you know what the funniest one would be is luke plapp he's been sitting back all race do not rule this guy out do not rule this guy out he's plus 8,000. I had this thought today. Looking at him back there is like, this guy is waiting for something. There's some stage that he has circled.

Yeah. I don't think it's the big power. Big power. I mean, I still, I'm going to go with Carapas just because of the climb and the descent. And he's the type of guy when he wants to get into a break. He can, especially with the team behind him, he can make it. Yeah. Although, you know, if you look at the profile of the stage, the breakaway is accessible to a

lot of people. So it might be it might be that it's a big group. And then usually what happens that that's the risk. Let's say let's say there's a group of 25 riders that goes, which we have seen many times, right? Then what will happen is that some riders in that group will want to anticipate before the ball and the breakaway breaks already like after 100K. And there's like four five guys who go away and then that's not easy for carapas because everybody will have their eyes on carapas. Yeah, then everyone's staring at Carapaz and says, hey, you want to close this down? And then Matt's Pedersen doesn't give a shit. So he's on the front of the front group because he just wants to get to the sprint point. Yeah. Boy, this is a tricky stage, isn't it? It's a difficult one to,

also to manage as a, you know, as a breakaway rider, you know, it's, um, yeah, you know, Well, I think it will be a breakaway. Maty van der Poul has the same issue, you know? I mean, if Carapas, at least Carapas knows that if he gets to the Ballonde al-Zas, that his climbing abilities are good enough to make up a bit of time or to ride away from it from the breakaway. Mathieu will have to manage his efforts and try to hang on and not get dropped on the Ballon-Dal-Zas. Why is Pagacier's second favorite? I don't know.

I cannot imagine. That would be a little ridiculous. I cannot imagine they would go for it. That wouldn't even make sense. It would be ridiculous. Don't put it past them. You know, you never know.

No, no. Plus, it's not even a mountain top finish. You know, you have to take risks in the downhill and no. I know. I know.

And they have two, two big important mountains. They're just coming out back to that. Exactly. Yeah. Why would we do that? I think that's a little silly. I'm going to go Carapest.

going Vanderpull, but with the caveat of this is going to be a tough break to manage for anyone that's in it. Anything else, Johan, before we take off? No, I think we've covered most of the day and tomorrow's stage. All right. Well, we will talk about who wins this unusual stage tomorrow and then predict stage 14 after that. But thanks for, thank you for joining us.