THEMOVE - Is Tomorrow the Day This Giro Explodes? | Giro d'Italia 2026 | THEMOVE+

Episode Date: May 22, 2026

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Alberto Bettiol's beautiful win in Verbania along the shores of Lake Maggiore, discussing how Bettiol deployed his experience and class to best his breakaway companions, and what this means for both Bettiol and his XDS-Astana team. They also look forward to tomorrow's crucial Stage 14, giving their picks for the win and why they think it is the most important GC stage yet. Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team  

Third place for Jasper Steuven on a stage that was not really... No, not at all. For him, especially, you know, those... I mean, he's in good shape. He's in good shape. So, I mean, he was fifth yesterday, third today. He's doing a really good Giro, Stuyven. Yeah, like really good.

Super impressive. But you see how difficult... I mean, you know, this is a really strong writer. It's a monument winner, right? He's in good shape. Has the freedom sometimes. And it shows how difficult it is to win a stage in the Gero. I mean, you know, this guy definitely has the power, the talent, the experience.

Just doesn't manage to win a stage. Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are breaking down stage 13 of the Giro d'Italia and then previewing stage 14 critical, monumental stage 14 at the end of the episode. Stage 13 was won by Italian writer Alberto Bedial from XDS Astana from a breakaway, worked over poor Andreas Lechnison from Unox.

He was away on the final climb. Betty all looked like he was off the back. And then it almost looked like Johan, a dad riding with kids. It's like, oh, okay, you guys think you're strong, you think you're up there. And he waited until 100 meters to go on the final climb, sprinted past Lechnizun, pushed it over the plateau on the top, descended down for an emotional stage when his first win in quite a while,

his first major win since joining Exeus Astana from EF, I'm Jasper Stoeven and the breakaway again was third place. The Peloton was 13 minutes back. No change in the GC. The start of the stage was quite active. I do think I've had my fill of these flat opening 100 kilometers of inless attacks, riders trying to get in the breakaway. Let's mix it up a little bit, RCS.

But it was a super fast start. I mean, the final, the average state, the average speed for the Peloton, or sorry, for the breakaway for the whole stage was 50 kilometers an hour, or maybe 49 kilometers an hour. So it was... 48.9. So it was well over 50 for the first two hours probably. A move goes with 179K to go.

There's an intense chase behind with Felipe O'Gana trying to get in a chase group, but everyone knows Felipe O'Gona wants to get in a chase group because the stage finishes in his hometown. So he can't get away. The Peloton actually breaks up. That's how intensely people were sprinting behind Ghana. Vizma gets to the front and says,

all right, enough of this. monkey business. We're shutting this down. A chase group was in between the Peloton and the breakaway at that point. The Peloton sits up when the Peloton sits up when the Peloton sits up to let the chase group on. And that was kind of the end of the stage until we got to the funnel climb. Beautiful day. But Johan,

what was your take on the on the racing? Yeah, well, I mean, obviously a very specific state, Spencer. And yesterday we said, you know, yesterday we said, you know, it could be a puncher. The question yesterday was, does a breakaway get away and makes it to the finish. So the answer, we got the answer pretty soon,

as soon as we saw 15 riders, breaking away, 11 teams were represented in that breakaway. And so it's super, super difficult. And at this point in the race also, it takes, if you miss the break as a team, you're not going to pull back 15 riders where there's a really common interest.

you know the only the only way you could basically see a team chases is if they're punished for not for not being in the break but they're not going to get anywhere so at this point i think that teams who had missed the break just you know licked their wounds and say okay you know what we'll just wait for another day from that moment on we knew that the breakaway was going to fight for the stage victory they got up till 11 minutes nobody in that breakaway was uh was dangerous for GC. Nobody was dangerous to get in the top 10. So all in all, a boring stage until, I guess, those last two climbs.

The pace was, as you said, unbelievably fast. I think, you know, initially they said, you know, it's going to be 49. It was 49 and something until those climbs. But those two climbs didn't really slow it down much. They still were close to 49 average. And then, you know, what we saw specific, there was some really good riders in there. But what I was really surprised to see Spencer was, you know, Grupaima, FDG, they had three riders in there. And that's nice.

But they rode like the other riders did not participate in this race. I mean, the way they came to the front and they started to accelerate on that, first of that second last climb on a lot. And then on the last climb, with, you know, first you on Jacobs and then the other guy, I don't remember. Was it Gouns or something? Guntz,

Guntz, no? It's H-U-E-N-S. H-U-N-S. Yeah. Huns. Never heard of him. I'm sure he's a fine man. Great, great guy.

Yeah. Yeah. But, you know, I mean, what I was really surprised to see was that they rode like, obviously, you know, if you look at the G.C., they had this other, you know, relatively unknown rider, this guy from New Zealand, Josh Kench, in that breakaway. And they were riding like, this was the guy. He was best in G.C. He was only 20 minutes down and everybody else was close to an hour down in G.C. So not in bad shape, but still, I thought it was a bit stupid from Grupama

to go with that much confidence and ride like if Kench would just take off on that last climb and drop everybody. When you see guys like Volgrin and Lechnusund and Betjou, I think it was a stupid move against three veterans and proven winners in the past. And it turned out to be true. you know, Kench attacked with confidence and conviction, like he's the man to beat, but I think he was a bit,

you know, overconfident or the team was overconfident or they got the instruction from the car. You know, guys, okay, we're strong. We're here. You know, we're going to kill these guys. You know, I mean, this, I did some research.

So there's Josh Kent. Kench, he's 25 years old. World Tour rookie. First year in the world. Yeah. First in the world tour, he was on a Chinese team last year. He was, you know, in the Asian calendar, basically, which, you know, it's also, I mean, it's hard racing. But, you know, it's not because I checked, it's not because you won the tour of Shari

and the tour of, what is it called, Boston League in 2025, then you're going to drop these super experienced guys. And so he did exactly what he didn't have to do. And then Lachnison's attacked, but Joel passed him. Volgren even passed him. So at some point, there were the four first guys who went away initially. They were one by one. And this New Zealand guy from FDG was, Grupauma FDG, was the fourth in the ranking. So I think that was not smart at all.

I mean, he's going to learn from that. He's not, I mean, he's not a bad writer. You know, at this point, if you're in that break and you're, making that selection of four riders, you have to be pretty strong, but he was definitely not the most, the smartest guy. All the team tactics of FDG, Rupam FDG were not really, not really what they should have done. They should have been cautious and just try to hang on. And in that case, you know, if he's a good climber, or if he's in good shape, he would maybe be able to hang on to that attack. And then being the lesser known rider, maybe he could have taken advantage in the final to get away.

but they did exactly the opposite of what they should have done. Yeah, especially since there was a kilometer on top of the climb that was flat, you know, would be a perfect place to attack if you get over the. But also, Spencer, if you know, if you know that the last two kilometers are so steep and they have the same profile like everybody else. Like, okay, you know, they obviously didn't recon this stage, but, you know, they have the profile, they have Velo viewer, they have videos, there's whatever information available. there's staff members who preview the course in front of the race get the information.

If it's a four-kilometer climb and the last two kilometers are 10%, you don't go from the bottom. That's just not smart. Especially if you have these killers with you like Vulgrain and Leknesant and Betio, that's just not smart. I have a theory about this. So Groupama FDJ, kind of a machismo team, right? It's like we must get to the front. We must show them how strong we are. Would you disagree with that statement?

That's kind of how they operate, right? Sometimes that's what they do. But sometimes it works, but, you know, especially in this race here, but I mean, all over. I mean, I think if you look at the classification of this year's season, I think they're really in the bottom. I'm going to guess I don't have the classification, but I'm going to guess they're in the last three positions of the world tour in this year's racing. I will tell us right now. And then while I look it up, the other component of that is Josh Kensch, Daniel Freep, did an interview with him actually last night before the stage. Super interesting.

He said he was making good money in China that it's a good place to kind of, you know, if you're not making it to the world tour, you can go to China and race and the third division and make livable wages. But that he only got on Grupama because he tested so well. So he must be, you know, his numbers must be insane if he's doing that. So maybe that's why they thought let's have him go hard. Also, I agree, Bettyol and Vagrin are killers. Not exactly racking up the wins lately. So maybe they thought they weren't fit. Grupama is 16th out of all teams.

18. Out of 18, both two teams. Yeah, well, there are. There's probably some. There's pro teams. Yeah, like co-fit is actually having a good year. Sneaky good year, co-fit is in front. Well, that's not good for Grupaima.

But anyways, that was just an observation. I mean, Betio, man, today he was, I think he was unbeatable. From what I hear from people in the breakaway, they felt like he was the strongest rider. Well, he wasn't even in the original move. He bridged up. I'm not so sure. Yeah, maybe, maybe. Anyways, that's irrelevant.

But, you know, his interview after the stage was interesting. You know, he said that so his, the family of his girlfriend is from the finishing town. He considers his second home. You know, his whole family was there. His dad, his brother. And then all the family members of his girlfriend. We even saw his girlfriend at the finish initially. not being allowed to go and congratulate him.

And then he said that, you know, he knew that this was his day. He knew the last 50 kilometers of this stage off by heart, which is also obviously you could see clearly that he knew exactly how this last climb was. The others, I mean, nobody, except if you're a local Italian, nobody would have previewed this stage in person. So he knew exactly how to hold. back and then you can see that he kept Legneson there and then just the change in speed in the last 150 meters of that climb was astonishing.

It was like he rode past Legnison like it was another race. So he knew exactly what he was doing. And yeah, I mean, listen, first first win for him in two years. You know, I remember that from now, so 2026 now. So end of 2024, surprisingly all of a sudden, Betio changed teams from EF to Astana, which was everybody was saying, why is this happening?

And I think it was at that moment where Astana was being threatened by relegation. And they wanted to sign somebody urgently to score points, which they did obviously a lot in 2025. But not thanks to Betio, actually. No, no, exactly. But that was why he was released from EF. And I assume EF saved a lot of money, right? Because six months of wages for Betiel must be.

Yeah. So they saved money on his salary. They got a buyout. Maybe not so much. But anyways. And Astana wanted a guy to score points. I mean, turns out that he didn't score almost any points.

Because he has not won since August, 24. He had not won a single race. Well, guess what the last time? He won two races in 24, but he was still on EF. And guess what the last time, what the last World Tour road race he's won was? What year was it in? This is a world tour. Unbelievable.

World Tour. Yeah. A stage in two down under. That was a prologue, though. So his last mass start win was 2021, Giro to tell you. Tour of Flanders? Jiro. Tour of Flanders win was like 2019.

Seven years ago. Yeah. He doesn't win often, but, you know, he, the guy's a character, you know, I mean, and, listen, today I'm going to say that he deserved to win this. He was the strongest, the smartest. No, no discussion. There was nobody else who was going to win. But, Betio.

And, you know, third stage win for Astana, man. This is also four stage wins for UAE, three for Astana. No, they won with Silva, the second stage, then they won with ballerini and now with Betio. I mean, probably three riders you wouldn't really expect before the start of the Gero that they would win stages. And they had the leadership jersey. They had the leaders jersey, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So pretty good Gero for them. And XDS Astana, sorry, I keep saying Astana.

Our good friends at XDS are going to get. out of us. Here's a crazy stat. So, Betty, I call these guys sacadas because they go into hibernation for years and then they come out and, you know, like he hasn't even been in the top 30 of a stage yet. But the class is there. It's hiding there.

Taddy Pagotcha started 11 races this year. Do you think he has more wins this year than Betty all has in his career? This year? Yeah. And he started 11 races. Pagaccha. Do you think he has more or less? Yeah, I'm going to say he

He has more wins than the jollins in his total career. They're tied nine to nine. Oh, okay. Okay. That gives you a sense for how far in between the wins are, but also I think people watching, you forget how meaningful these wins are. Because he's saying like, oh, it's worth it to me to wait because this is such a beautiful win, such a big win.

It's like what you're saying when teams come in and they say, we're going to win stages. It's like, well, wait a second. Stage is a hard thing to win. and what are we now on six teams of one stages at this race? Yeah, I mean, you know, if there's one team who won four, one team one was one three and then two, two and net company. Sudan was one. So it's UAE4, XTS Astana three, Sudal two. Who won yesterday's stage?

I'm losing my mind. Bahrain. Bahrain's, yeah. Yeah, they have won. net company Ennis has one. And that's the other. Well, also before I ask you that question, do you think Bettyol kind of worked Lennoxon over by letting him attack,

letting him dangle and then pumping them right before the top of the climb? I think, I think Betiel had the perfect control. He managed this climb to perfection, this last climb. He kept Lekneson within reach. You could see that he was there. Lekneson tried his hard. and then, you know, accelerated tremendously in the final of that climb.

It was, you could see that he had it under control, especially, especially the speed that was, that being developed in the last 100 meters compared to Lekneson, who was, you know, he passed him. And then it, it felt like on the screen, it felt like forever for Lekneson to crest that climb when, Betjol was already flying down, down the other side. So, you know, and it was meant to be for Bettyol because, you know, we've been talking, Spencer, We're going to ask Gabriel to put up this picture here. Credit to Wheel of Flitz for putting up this picture on their social media. So, but Joe had to win this stage because he finished.

He was also, he was on the same time trial tires, like we've talked about already. And he finished with a nail in the, in the, in the tire and didn't puncture. So it turns out they're not, they're not as fragile as we think. Who is the tire sponsor? It's continental, the same continental GP 5000. I mean, you can see there on the picture here. So you can see the 5,000 and then the TT. And there's a nail in there.

So he had to win this. It was meant to be. One thing. So I was on these top trial tires just the other day. I get like a piece of glass in there. You know, there's a hole. It's leaking, but it seals because I don't want to. No free ads, but the sealant company that some of these teams use is very good at plugging flats, as we saw today with Betty.

So that is like something I never really thought about, but you're like, oh, yeah, that's a huge advantage. If your sealant is actually plugging tires versus other sealants, which I've not had as good of luck with, you could definitely tell Betsy all had a visited the girlfriend's family and been doing this climb. Like he knew exactly what to do, and he knew exactly where to go fast. true or false question for you you work for rcs sure or this is a should you should you push the stage winner's girlfriend out of the way so you can get the first hug with the stage winner after the stage i can't believe that the poor guy he i mean i don't know he he he did he had you know these are guys that obviously you know travel from finish to finish with the caravan right So I mean, everybody, I don't know if she didn't.

I mean, listen, if she's local, I would guess she has a credential. But, you know, it's possible. Maybe not. I guess. It was fun, funny to see that he was holding her back. And then finally she escaped. It was, yeah, that was crazy. It does give you a sense for how you could feel the excitement for how exciting it is to have an Italian winner.

The day was beautiful. like Lake Majore, they won the stage. Everybody wants to go there now. Looked fantastic Italian winner, so people were excited. GC, nothing happened. But did you notice, I mean, this must just be paranoia. Jonas was like fifth wheel. You know, nothing is going on midstage.

Jonas is right up there at the front. I assume this means he thinks the way he loses this race is, you know, we see it sometimes. Stage like today, you're rolling along, bottle drops, you crash, you break your collarbone. And I guess he thinks that's his biggest obstacle right now. Maybe. I mean, if you're in fifth, in fifth wheel, there's only four bottles that can drop in front of you. Yeah.

If you're 100 condition, there's a lot of bottles that can drop. I mean, no, I think, you know, I mean, obviously. And, okay, 11 minutes they got the breakaway. But, you know, in the Peloton, it's all, I mean, they also didn't take it easy. I mean, they were strong. Yeah. Single file. Was it was it, uh, it was.

it was basically Bahrain was doing all the world. Yeah, it was like Bahrain had three riders and then he does this thing where he rides behind one teammate and then the rest of the team's behind him. Why does he do that? Yeah, that's, yeah. I don't know. I mean, it's not bad.

I mean, there's obviously one wheel he trusts more than anything else. And then it also, I mean, it avoids having to fight a lot for position because they're protecting, and there's three guys. behind you that are kind of serving as the sweep to, you know, so you don't have to fight so much for position. If you're in, if you have three teammates in front of you and you're last, there should always

be one rider behind the leader, always. But if you have three, you know, it's safer. It's a lot safer. I guess you're forming a literal bubble. So no one can touch the wheel, basically. Anything else on the stage before we preview tomorrow stage? I don't think so. I don't think so.

I mean, yeah, it was a nice final. Lechnison is strong also. I mean, he's been up there a few times, strong rider. But just it was not meant to be today. But you all had to win this one. We should say Leckninson in his interview was roasted. It's getting warmer. This race, not as hot as Madrid, but it's in the high 20s,

centigrade. And you could tell, like, some fatigue in that group. Like, I don't think he had anything left. Like, TD did everything he could. Yeah, yeah, yeah. All right, let's. Also, third place for Jasper Stevin on a stage that was not really. No, not at all.

For him, especially, you know, those, I mean, he's in good shape. He's in good shape. So, I mean, he was fifth yesterday, third today. He's doing a really good Giro, Stuyven. Yeah, like really good. Super impressive. But you see how different, I mean, you know, this is a really strong rider. It's a monument winner, right?

He's in good shape, has the freedom sometimes. And it shows how difficult it is to win a stage in the Gero. I mean, you know, this guy definitely has the power, the talent, the experience. Just doesn't manage to win a stage. Yeah. So if you look at the power, Johann, he's doing 520 watts, basically, on stage two, Leibninson to stay, not even stay in the group, to be dropped by Jonas. And then today, 483 for the same time on that climb shows you, A, it's a little bit easier

in the breakaway and be how tired they are. They're fatiguing the power is literally going down as they do this. Also, that's pretty, go ride your bite today at 30 miles an hour for three and a half hours and then just rip off a 500 watt effort for seven minutes and also weigh like 70 kilos and then tell me how that feels. That's what it takes to be in these groups. But let's take a quick break. I think the biggest problem for the majority of the people is get to 70.

Yeah, exactly. Without being able to develop in that power. Yeah. I mean, I seriously, I would try to drop to like 74 kilos and I just would be so weak. You know, I never, it's very hard to do that actually. Yeah, that's our excuse. If we get to skinny, we're weak. So that's why we don't lose weight.

Well, it is why you can't just, I think, because I, like, I was riding with the guy the other day who like just did 500 watts for an hour on Zwift, you know, just sat there did 500 watts for an hour. So you might think like, oh, that guy could be a world tour cyclist, right? It's like, well, he's a little heavy. He'll just lose a little weight. But then as he loses the weight, the power comes down like in a nonlinear fashion. And then you're not, you lose everything. So it is tough to be as light as these guys are and as powerful as they are. Yeah, yeah. We'll be right back after this break. Okay, Johan, we're back. So stage 14 tomorrow. This is a, this is probably the most critical stage we've had so far for the GC. It's probably not

the hardest state. I think there are like stage 19, the stage we're going to watch together, is harder, but this is 133 kilometers. So short, it is short, has 4,200 meters of climbing in it. And it's five catarized climbs and basically is just going up or down. And they start on a 16 kilometer long climb to send down. Then they do a six kilometer climb at six and a half percent to send down. Seven and a half kilometers, eight percent to send down, six kilometers.

at 7% to send down. And then they climb up to a ski resort, 16K, 16.5K at 7%. The course is kind of funky. It's what you would do on a, they start in Aosta, which is a mountain valley in town in Italy. And it's like what you would do if you're doing a training ride. Like they just go up a mountain, down a mountain. But they go up and then go down the same side, which is unusual for a grand tour.

Probably makes it a little easier logistically, but it's going to be brutal because there's no big, it's not like the tour to France where you're going through these big valleys in between climbs. It's just going to be one after the other after the other. It's going to be on from the gun, I assume, with 133 kilometers of racing. I assume GC day, but how do you think this is going to play out and who's going to win? Yeah, I think it has to be GC, especially, Spencer, because first of all, it's a short

stage, right, 133 kilometers, 4,300 meters of elevation, five climbs, three of which are category one climb. So from the beginning, a cat one climb. So there's going to be a break with strong riders that are not in G.C. And if somebody's in G.C, it's going to be kept close by, by, initially by Bahrain. But also Visma is going to control tomorrow. So, I mean, I think it's going to be, I mean, the estimated average speed from the race organization is, this is how hard this stage is.

It's 32 kilometers per hour average. I think it's going to be a lot faster. But still, it's a very hard stage. I think, I mean, I think it's going to be G.C. I think for sure change of leader tomorrow. I think Jonas is going to be in pink tomorrow. I don't think, I don't think tomorrow. Ulario can hold on to the leader's jersey.

He probably won't be very far. He's still going to be up there in top three, top five. But yeah, I think tomorrow, Jonas is in pink. Little stat, Spencer, about tomorrow's finish. It's a hard climb, but they haven't done it very much in the Gero. The last time they did this climb was 1992. And the stage was, I don't remember which stage it was, but it was so tomorrow's 133 it was almost double the distance it was 260 kilometers stage

and they they did seven hours 21 minutes over the stage one by udo bolts german rider and the zero i think that giro was won by miguel de rhein but pretty pretty i mean 260 kilometers We don't have those days anymore. We did have a 24-kilometer-long stage on stage seven. I mean, too long in my... Blockhouse. Too long in my opinion. I'm very much looking forward to this stage.

I think this is... I think this year has been a little stuck in the past with some of these stages. This is exciting. This is a very well-designed stage. I think it's going to be great. Shout out Udo Bolts, by the way. Great rider. That's not an easy stage to win.

But who do you think is going to win? Did you say? Did I miss it? I think, no. I got draft kings pulled up here. You think who wins? I think I think Jonas wins tomorrow. Okay.

I need to make up for some losses. So I'm going to put some money on Jonas right now. So on draft kings. Is he, is he the favorite? He is. So he's, but not as much as you think. Kind of interesting. So Jonas Fendergarde, you know, just think about what I just described.

Where is a breakaway building up time? You know, you would have to be an extremely good climber. Because you're starting on a 16 kilometers. long 7% climb. So to outclimb the peloton on 133 kilometer long stage, you got to be flying up that thing. So Vinegarad's minus 155.

Chaconay plus 275, Felix Gall plus 1,200. Inric Moss plus 1,600. See, rider like that in the breakaway. That's one of the only options. I know Rubio plus 2,800. I don't think Rubio's a good enough climber. Pelisari plus 3,000. Pelisari's been sick.

Well, Poles plus 3,000. Time and Arnsman plus 3,000. have to win it from the GC group though. Jai Henley plus 3,000 plus 4,000 probably from the GC group. The only one that I would add in here that I, Ego Bernal plus 8,000, I think he, him and Moss would be the only ones I could imagine winning from the breakaway, right? Yeah, yeah.

I mean, I think it's going to be difficult for a breakaway. It's a lot of climbing. It's so different than down. Up and down. It's this, yeah, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the, the way doesn't go that much faster than a pelaton. led by Bahrain and Visma. And I think tomorrow, in my opinion,

Visma's going to go for the stage win. By the way, Spencer, we haven't mentioned it, but apparently he's feeling better now, but Jonas has said that he has been sick. Yeah, I was going to ask you about this. You know, so, I mean, I don't know. I mean, you wouldn't say that if it's not true, I think. It's easy to say, okay, I've been sick when you're healed.

Then you can say, okay, you know what? I've been sick. You know, I'm still here. Bring it on. You know, and I'm good again now. But there's been a lot of sickness in the Peloton. And that could also explain why he was a bit off, you know, like why he didn't do a great time trial and why he was not dominant.

And, you know, if that's true and he's feeling better now, then it doesn't look good for the rest. Yeah, yes. But is this, I agree it would explain a lot. Why would he say this, even if it is true? Like, what does he have to game by that? I don't know. He's bored, maybe.

He definitely looks bored, yeah. He looks bored and he just, you know, he jokes in interviews, which is not his usual. So he feels relaxed. I mean, I can, he's definitely very relaxed compared to what we normally see from Jonas Winkiggaard. So that shows me. that he has a lot of confidence and feels good about what's to come

and who knows what sick means I mean does that mean loose stool like we don't like a day of stool not as firm as he would have preferred does it mean a cold like even a cold getting a cold in a grand tour I'd imagine would be terrible but here's my question

for you it happens all the time I mean I can't imagine being competitive in a GC with the cold that's oh yeah I mean there's there's a sure there's guys in the top 10 or even top five who are sneezing and coughing for sure. I mean, Pelazar

he continues to not look great. But here's the question that for you. So I'm going to bet Jonas Finnegarg too. Minas 155. I think that's a deal. I don't quite get why it's like that. I think he's going to win. I need to recover my losses

from the last two days. So I'm going heavy on him. But here's the question. So if you look at the futures, he's minus $1,400 to win the whole thing. terrible value. Like, don't bet on that because what if he breaks his collarbone in Rome? You know, anything could happen. Is there, like, is, is there really a scenario?

If he wins tomorrow, in my mind, he's winning the whole thing. So instead of betting on him to win the whole thing, shouldn't you just bet on him to win tomorrow? It's the least breakaway friendly mountain stage we have at this race. Probably. Probably. Yeah. I would say, yeah. So, I mean, when you look at the map, when you look at the profile, you think,

maybe in one of these valleys look at the map it's just there's no great terrain it's also i mean the only thing is that you know and vizma has been quite fortunate actually they have they they they haven't had to do a lot of work till now yeah uh but also you know for the for the mountain stages they're not super strong you know they have they have uh kus and they have piganzoli And then the others, Campanards for the moment has been, I mean, he's strong, obviously, but he hasn't been his usual, like,

spectacularly strong. Like we saw him in the tour sometimes. Mm-hmm. In the, in the, in the, in the, in the, in the, in the, in the, in the, I mean, I. So it's so it's not that easy to control. And how many do they lose in the first climb, you know? Yeah. Um, so who else is?

I mean, I mean, I, they really miss Keldermann, you know, Calderman is key here. Yeah. They lost him, unfortunately, after stage three already. But, yeah, I mean, that's the only, you know, downside that, but at the same time, you know, when it's, it's always the same discussion, right? Okay, say, oh, you know, the team of the leader, they're not so strong. But as the team of the leader, it's like people expect that there's always five riders with you,

which actually makes no sense because it's the team that has to do the most work. So it's kind of logical that they are short on men when the final starts. At the end of the day, if you look at what's going to happen on the last climb or the last two climbs, Cus and P. Gonzoli and Jonas, those three together are normally stronger than any other team. what any other team can put next to it, you know. Felix Gall has, what's his name? Is it? Gregor Mulberger, yeah.

Murr-Mulberger, yeah. And then one other guy. But, you know, they're not as strong as Pianzoli and Kuss. So I'm not overly worried about the collective strength of Fism. I think they're, I think they're going to be fine. My only concern, as you say that, is, are they stronger than Inrik Mas? Are they stronger than Igan Bernal? I'm now imagining watching Enric Maas, like survive and win the stage.

Okay, that's true. That doesn't really matter for them. Yeah, yeah. But that's, now I'm more concerned because it doesn't matter for them. You could imagine them just like tap, but someone will, if they're going slow, someone will attack them. So they'll keep it. quick. If Vinegarre doesn't win the stage,

who would you pick? No one from the GC group, I assume. I mean, if Vingegar doesn't win the stage, it's because there's either a breakaway or he has a bad day. In that case,

Felix Gall is the strongest climber behind him. So I think, I mean, Enlick Mas is a good one for tomorrow. He looks strong, especially on those climes of tomorrow. Chicone is pretty strong also.

Is it not too hard for him? Has he ever won a stage like that? That would be the question I levy. I think he won a stage over the Morirolo in the Giro one year. Yeah, he did. He did. I remember. I remember it vividly. But it was not finished on top, but it was over the mortarolo. Definitely. Well, he did win a summit finish. Stage 20, 22, he beat Butrago. Was over the mortiolo. It was not on top of the morti. They did the mortilolo and then they went down and then they came to another climb. This might be another stage. This was at Cogné. Cunio.

Who knew? That was the first year we did the show together. Yeah, Butroga was good. Okay, well, there's my question answered, because that's a 22 kilometer long climb. Yeah. All right. Chaconne. But, yeah. Is Chaconne a better climber than in Rikmas right now?

Enric Mast is a better, pure climber, but you could also argue was Betio the best climber in that group? Yeah, he won. I think Chaconna's hungry. He's hungry for a first stage win. And these guys can out perform in Italy. I wouldn't rule out Chikone for tomorrow. And he builds up his advantage on Jonas on the first climb or when's he doing that? He needs to be in a break. He needs to be in a group. I think it's going to be G.C. Spencer, G.C. battle. I have a hard time. This is the worst possible parkours for a breakaway. because there's no you have to build up your advantage on the first climb and it's going to be bananas on that first climb

because it's going to be I mean what do you think Igor Bernal goes in the breakaway tries to win the stage I think so yeah I think so but then if Igor and Bernal goes you know what's going to happen

we know what's going to happen here you're going to have you're going to have two door jumping after him because I don't want them to make up spots in the GC we've seen this movie yeah so yeah Okay, I think it's Vinegard.

I'm pretty, I'm confident in that. I think whoever wins this, wins the Gero, unless some unforeseen issue happens later, like a crash, a broken collarbone. But I think tomorrow is Jonas, Jonas Day. I mean, he said in the interview, he never says anything interesting. He said, we've been planning this stage since before the race started. So that's telling you, I want to win the stage. Yeah. Before we go, I thought that this,

was vaguely familiar. 2022 Tour de France. Stage 14. Monda. Monde. Remember that it's like this awesome finish on the runway? On the airports. Yeah.

So Michael Matthews wins over Alberto Betiol because he let Betiol bake on that climb and then pushed right past him before the top of the climb and then held him off going into the finish. Kind of a beautiful symmetry there. Then Betiol years later, four years later wins the stage in exactly the same way, but the roles are reversed. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Well, Johan, but we'll be back tomorrow to break down this hopefully exciting stage. I think it's going to be excited. This is a very interesting course. They've drawn up. I'm excited to see how it plays out, and we'll break it down tomorrow right after the stage. Okay, Spencer. Speak soon. All right. See you soon.