THEMOVE - Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2025 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: April 25, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down the course, contenders, and likely outcomes for Sunday's Liège-Bastogne-Liège, which will see Tadej Pogačar and Remco Evenepoel face off yet again in another challenging one-day race. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the race will play out, where the winning move will go, how they think last Sunday's Amstel upset may affect Pogačar and Evenepoel's strategy, and who presents the best betting value. Troscriptions: There’s a completely new way to optimize your health. Give it a try at https://www.troscriptions.com/THEMOVE or enter THEMOVE at checkout for 10% off your first order. Hims: Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/themove for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary. Based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. Caldera Labs: Skincare doesn’t have to be complicated—but it should be good. Upgrade your routine with Caldera Lab and see the difference for yourself. Go to https://www.CalderaLab.com/THEMOVE and use THEMOVE at checkout for 15% off your first order.    

It starts to sound really repetitive and boring. But if you consider the last four years have been won by two riders, Tadej Pogacar and Remko Evenepoel have won both the race twice. Going off what we saw, if you would have asked me after Amstel Gold Race, I would say, you know, it's 50-50. For me, it's not 50-50. It's Tadej Pogacar all the way.

The only way, in my opinion, he can lose this race is if there's circumstances, you know, crashes which we don't hope, technical problems, punctures, or if he makes mistakes. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johan Berniel, or if he makes mistakes. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johann Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice.

Please gamble responsibly, and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Passed performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin.

I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting Liege Bastogne-Liege, the final monument of the spring season, 252 kilometers long with a ton of vertical climbing, vertical meters gained like 4,300 meters. If you're American, that's something like 12,000 feet. It's a lot of feet. I can't do the math off the top of my head, but it's a lot. I will read the favorites off Unibet in Europe and we will get Johan's take on how this race is going to play out and who's going to win. Tere Pagachar is the massive favorite. I just can't get over these lines. It's every week.

Minus 200. Remco Ebenapol plus 350. Ben Healy plus 2000, Tom Pickock plus 2000, Mateusz Szczelmoza plus 2000, plus 2200, the winner of Amso Gold, T-Bonnet plus 3300, Roman Gregoire plus 5000, Kevin Vaclón plus 6600, Tej Banu plus 8000, Santiago Butrago plus 8000, Giulio Ciccone, who must be coming straight from the Tour of the Alps plus 8,000. It keeps going. We don't need to read it. Probably the winner will come from one of those. Johan, who's going to win this thing and how are they going to win it? Yeah, Spencer. I mean, it starts to sound really repetitive and boring. But if you consider the last four years have been won by two riders, right?

Tadej Pogacar and Remko Evenepoel have won both the race twice. Going off what we saw, you know, if you would have asked me after Amstel Gold Race, I said, I would say, you know, it's 50-50. For me, it's not 50-50. It's Tadej Pogacar all the way. Um, the only way in my opinion, he can lose this race is if there's circumstances, you know, crashes, which we don't hope, uh, technical problems, punctures, or if he makes mistakes, which is in my opinion, what is what's the biggest chance for others to win. If Pogacar feels that he's really strong, he goes from far out and he runs out of energy.

Also not likely to happen, but I think that's the biggest thing that the other riders can hope for. So today Pogacar minus 200 is my favorite to win. It's going to be good weather between 15 and 18 degrees, almost no wind, sunny. So it's going to be really, you know, the guy who has the strongest legs. We've seen in Flesh Wallone that there was a big difference between today and the rest. He does tend to perform really well in bad weather where some guys sometimes struggle. So I don't think that's a really, that's, that's, that's really a realistic image of, of the difference between the guys. But, but

yeah, it's, it's, I think it's a very predictable race. It's, it's, you know, the course is always the same, or at least the finals are always the same. So everyone was going to be waiting until Côte de la Radoute, where usually the big first selection is made. I think Pogacar is going to go there. I can't see Remco still hanging on. But then on the last climb, La Rochefaucon, which is a hard time also in a long, long climb. I think, I think Bogotar is going to take off there. And in the case Remco would be able to

stay with him, man against man. I still think Bogotar is faster in the sprint than Remco. So Bogotar, number one favorite. Yeah, it sounds crazy at the odds, minus 200. It's like starting to stretch our religious adherence to Tadej Bogotar's greatness. But you lay out a pretty good case. And I think, I don't think we've talked about this on the record since Sam Stoegold. I think you and George are right that the fatigue of Roubaix is so intense that it leaves you so drained. I actually don't quite know what he was thinking when he made that attack at Amso Gold.

He just wasn't quite at his best. We saw on Wednesday, he's now at his best. He's writing incredibly well. The cold probably helped him, but it was super impressive, almost chillingly good that that performance. And then the thing about liaises is so hard. It's not like Amstel, which is more interesting of a race probably because it's so much faster and rolling and the climbs aren't as difficult. You know, Flanders is a little bit, it's hard, but it's a little bit more open. Roubaix is very open because it's flat. Liège is almost like a laboratory. Like it is, if you're not the strongest rider at this race, it's very, very hard to win it. And

I'll just read the last fight winners. It's Tadej Pogacar last year defending champion. Remco Evenepoel the year before because Pogacar broke his wrist and wasn't able to contest it. 2022 Pogacar wasn't there. So Remco Evenepoel wins with another solo. Those are three solo attacks. 2021, Pogacar wins out of a sprint of four, if you can believe that that used to happen. And then 2020, Primoz Roglic wins it and maybe the most exciting modern edition. That was totally bananas in the finish, in the final. But technically, the strongest rider tends to win this race. Tadej Pogacach is probably the strongest rider, but because you've picked him and because of the odds, Rimko Evenepoel plus 350. I mean, this

guy has won this race twice. It's not like an out of left field pick. It's almost priced like a wild card though. I'm going to go Evenepoel just because of the math on this because I think it's not quite 50-50, but I don't think his chances of winning are zero. As we saw at Amstel, he's a pretty good rider. He's pretty strong. Maybe one of the only riders strong enough to challenge Bagachar. I'm going to go Remco Ebeno-Pole plus 350. Yeah, I think that makes sense, Spencer. You can't rule out Remco. We logically would think that his, you know, he started, this is only his third race of the season. He was six months

out because of his terrible accident in Belgium. So one would think that his form would be increasing still. So, so, um, of the three races that he has done or that tomorrow will be his third race. I think Liège is suited the best for him because of the terrain. And of course, because he won it twice. So, um, on top of that in Belgium, you know, all the fans will be in favor of him. Uh, it will be a big day for him. Uh, I have to say, he also has a pretty strong team around him for these races. We have been critical of Sudak Quickstep in the cobbled classics where they were used

to be the dominating team. It's clear there's been a shift there and that they've built a team around Evenepoel. And I could see in F in flesh for loan that the team was really around him and, and very present. So, um, the more, uh, on Sunday, there's not going to be any different. I think, uh, at this price plus three 50, a rider like even a pool, I think, uh, it's, it's definitely worth picking him. Yeah. I mean, it's almost a wild card price. It's crazy for a guy that good. I mean, to argue against my own position, the climbs, like he's, his advantage over Pagacha is flat because he's so aero,

probably not as good of a climber. There's more climbing at this race. That would be the negative case on him, but just because of the numbers on this. But you know what the climbs, the climbs in Liège are different, Spencer. The climbs in Amstel are shorter, but steeper. Mur de Huit is obviously super steep. The climbs in Liège, except La Radoute, but it's still not as steep as Mur de Huit. So the climbs in Liège suit Remco better than any of those other two races. So also we've seen now that the distance doesn't seem to be a problem. He's fit. His endurance is really good. So he can go over the 250 kilometers. Not a problem. In Remco's favor, I think also that if it's not going to be cold and rainy, it's a plus compared to Flesch-Volone because he also openly said that made a mistake in Flesch-Volone

to take off his raincoat or his rain jersey too early and he was cold. Anyway, everybody was cold, but I think Pogacar is able to deal better with the cold and the rain and then Remco. So obviously, that's that's out of the question for Sunday. So that's a plus for Remco. Yeah, he won't be cold on Sunday, which is good for him. But let's take a quick ad break. And then you can tell us where this move is going to go,

whether it's Remco, whether it's Pogacar, and then we'll get into our wild cards after that. So we'll be right back in a minute. Everybody, this episode is brought to go, whether it's Remco, whether it's Pagacha, and then we'll get into our wild cards after that. So we'll be right back in a minute. Everybody this episode is brought to you by Troscriptions. Here's a question to consider. What do you need right now on your path to health optimization? For me, sometimes that's just focus. Other times it's better sleep. And sometimes I just want to feel sharp without needing another coffee. That's why I've been using Trescriptions, a company that's completely rethinking how we approach supplements. They've developed pharmaceutical grade physician designed formulas that are delivered in a really innovative way.

Something called a buckle troche. That's a small dissolvable lozogen that sits between your cheek and gum. It hits fast 15 to 30 minutes because it bypasses your digestive system and delivers ingredients right into your bloodstream. Whether you're looking for more energy, better sleep or stress relief, they've got a stack for you. Everything is made in the USA and backed by science. So take advantage of this completely new way to optimize your health by heading to Troscriptions.com slash The Move or entering The Move at checkout for 10% off your first order. That's Troscriptions T-R-O-S-C-R-I-P-T-I-O-N-S dot com slash The Move for 10% off your first

order. One more time at Troscriptions.com slash the move for 10% off. Everybody. This episode is brought to you by hims. What do riders like Tadej Pagachar, Rimcoe Vennepol, Matthew Vanderpol and Wout Van Aert are all having in common? Well, other than putting out more watts than we do, it's their amazing hair. Unfortunately we can't all be so lucky. So if you're starting to notice your hair thinning, when you look in the mirror, you're not alone. Life just gets busier and busier and it can feel like there's not enough time in the day

to do something about it. So if this is how you feel, try him's hair loss solutions. They can allow you to avoid jumping through a bunch of frustrating hoops and get access to treatment without ever leaving your own home, which is how I like to get treatment. Don't make me go to the doctor, please. Hymns provides you with convenient access to a range of hair loss treatments that work all from the comfort of your own couch. They make treating hair loss simple with doctor trusted options and clinically proven ingredients like finasteride and minoxidil that can regrow hair in as little as three to six months. You can choose from personalized chewables,

sprays, serum treatments to find out what works best for you. The process is simple and 100% online, so there's no uncomfortable doctor visits. All you have to do is answer a few questions and a medical provider will determine if treatment is right for you if they prescribe it and your treatment is sent directly to you free with no shipping charge. No insurance is needed and that one low price covers everything from treatments to ongoing care. Hims has hundreds of thousands of trusted subscribers and they can help you get your confidence back with visibly thicker and fuller hair.

Do not wait any longer. Start your free online visit today at hims.com slash the move. That's hims, H I M S dot com slash the move for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Once again, hims.com, hims.com slash the move. Results may vary based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. Restrictions apply.

See website for full details and important safety information. All right, back to the episode. All right, Johan, where do you think this winning move is gonna go? I think the last few years it's gone on Labre d'Huite, if I'm not mistaken, sometimes on the climb, sometimes over the top of the climb, but really that's where stuff starts to go down in the last few years. Yeah.

I think the same. I think it's the same. You know, it's the hardest climb in the final and there's a big, normally, usually there's a big, big, big fight for position because it gets really narrow to the little town just before the Côte de la Radoute. And then it's quite long, you know, it keeps going up harder and harder. It's straight.

I think Pogacar will go there. Remco maybe get distance a bit, but I think he still can come back after Larradoute because there's good terrain for him. He's not going to be far behind if he gets behind there. But I think there, that's what Pogacar will do a first big attack. I mean, listen, we don't know nowadays, you know, it's possible they go already earlier on on the Cote de Stocco, for example, which is way earlier and steep. But logically, it should be on Larodoute, the first big attack. And then eventually, the final decision, if Pogacar doesn't get away by himself, would be on Larosso-Faucon,

the last considerable climb. With this new final now in the last few years, of course, there's still quite a bit of terrain after the La Rochefaucon. But normally, if you're not able to follow there, you're done, it's difficult to come back. You can come back, but it's difficult to win. If you could, if you come back.

Yeah. I mean, do you think there's any, this was changed fairly recently, right? Like wasn't, do you remember that old finish and it was at like an ons where they'd like go uphill. And so the last, what is it? It's like six or seven years have been on this course. Do you think there's any chance that an attack goes on Labre d'huit and it gets pulled back before the finish? Or is that, you think these guys are so strong that's not going to happen? Well, if it gets pulled back, it's going to be, I mean, this, there's not that,

first of all, there's not that many riders who can attack on Labre d'huit. It's in my opinion, it's today and Remco. The others will have to try to follow. Right? So, uh, if it gets pulled back, it's going to be pulled back by one or two riders. Let's say if Pogacar attacks and Remco and let's say Ben Hilly are together, they might, you know, not going to be that far behind. There might be a chance. And then also depends if Pogacar attacks, will he go full gas till the finish or will he try to dosify his efforts and even allow them to come back? You know, the attack

could be a decisive one. It could also be the first one to really wear out your opponents. I think it's, if Pogacar is a hundred uh, and he goes a lot of dudes probably game over. Yeah. I mean, it's weird. I'm at his team in the pre record there. It's not, oddly not the strongest team they could bring here. They probably, some of the riders that would most rival Evan Paul and Bogota are on the gotcha's team and are not at this race. Like one Iso, Zweila Mehta, Adam Yates. I guess those guys are off preparing for the Giro, but his team's still pretty strong. And I assume he'll want to stay with it for as long as possible, which would support your

theory of the lot of, let's say, quote unquote, waiting until Labre d'Huitt to attack. I probably don't see him going before that just because the team is so good and I want to use it up as much as possible before he goes. I mean, what you, you had this comment on the, I think it was the move on Wednesday that I'm quite curious about asking you about is you think if Pagacar raised more conservatively, he would win more. Like what's the conservative option at this race? Like, is it not going on Labre d on Labrador or is that too risky if you don't do it? It's at least waiting until a lot of dudes. So you know, now we don't know when they're going to go. Right.

But I think, I think if you look at the composition of the team, right, let's, let's have a look at UAE. So it's Bogacar, Domen, Novak, Brandon McNulty, Felix Groschartner, Langen, Sivakov and Vermeersch. So Novak, Langen and Vermeersch are the guys that need to keep it under control. These three guys need to make sure that the breakaway doesn't get too far ahead because what's clear is in this race with a guy like Pogacar at the start, they cannot expect any help from no team. So if there's a breakaway, and there will be, it's all eyes on them. And everybody's riding kind of negatively. I mean, negatively, I would

say when you're so dominant, right? In the peloton, there's a certain trend of, you know, let's not race to win, but we're going to race to make him lose. It starts to be like this when you're so dominant. So all eyes are on him and on the team, then they will get no help. So there's eight or 10 riders. If you look at the way they have picked the team, it's clear that these three riders Novak, En Langen and Vermeer, this is not their favorite terrain. But they're here for a reason. These three guys will need to make sure that until at least the first 200k, 180k, that's their job. And the breakaway will never get more than three, four minutes. And then because of the dynamics and the inertia of the race, automatically the gap will get

smaller from L'Arduit, there's a bunch of other clients. So yeah, now I think it's going to be classic classic, uh, real battle liege, UAE controlling one big favorites and everybody else just looking and trying to, you know, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with,

with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, with, riders of these names I've said, they even start with the idea, okay, I'm not racing to win. I'm just racing for the podium. Yeah, yes. I think you're exactly right. And on that note, let's get our picks for the podium and our wild cards for the win after our last ad break, which is right now. Everybody, this episode is brought to you by Caldera Lab. Let's be honest, cycling

is not great for your skin, especially during the spring classic season with the road spray and the cold weather. Whether you're a top pro looking to stand out on the podium or just a weekend warrior, Caldera Lab is here for you. Their high performance skincare is designed specifically for men. It's simple, effective and backed by science. And in a consumer study, nearly every user said their skin looks smoother and healthier after using it with improved hydration and texture, and almost all reporting a more youthful appearance. They have a wide variety of skincare products that deliver these results. But a few of my favorites are first the Clean Slate. It comes in a glass bottle like all Cudera Lab products

because they help you reduce your plastic footprint and also make you feel like a fancy lord in a manner. And it is a morning and night cleaning essential for me. It gently exfoliates skin without drying it out and also great for washing all the grime off your face after a long day in the saddle. They also have the base layer, their nutrient-rich moisturizer infused with plant stem cells and snow mushroom extract. Not only is it great for your face, could be good for your legs after you shave them. If you shave your legs a lot, you need to moisturize. Why not try the base layer and the eye serum, which helps reduce the appearance of tired eyes, dark circles, and puffiness that I just described to myself. If you're watching on YouTube, you'll know what I mean. So when I have to wake up early for all these races like the tour, the Alps, the spring classics, the Giro,

which is coming up, I need the ice serum to help make sure I don't look like a ghoul when I leave the house. So remember skincare doesn't have to be complicated, but it should be good upgrade your routine with Caldera lab and see the difference for yourself. All you have to do is go to calderalab.com slash the move and use code the move at checkout for 15% off your first order. That is calderalab.com slash the move and use code the move at checkout for 15% off your first order. All right, back to the show. So, Johan, let's assume something weird happens. And this happens. I mean, as we saw, I am so gold. Tati Pagato doesn't win. Rinpoche Evdopol doesn't win. Who's the Mateusz Skalmoza of this week? If that happens. Yeah. I mean, unfortunately, I fear for Skalmoza that he's not going to be fully recovered

from his heart crash on Fleshball. I mean, it's already a success that he's starting. There's nothing broken. I've seen that he's recounted the final of the race, but still, a crash like that, it does have an impact. Three days later, you're not fully recovered from this. I'm just going to go off what I've seen in the last few races and also the track records. I'm going to choose Tom Pitcock as my wild card. He's plus 2000.

He was second in this race already. He was third in Fleche Wallonne. He disappointed a bit in Amstel gold race, but then afterwards I found out that he did the last 10 kilometers on a half flat tire. Um, so he's in good shape and we know definitely that pitcocks form is in crescendo now that it's, it's improving. So, um, he's a winner, Um, and he can win in the sprint also. So there could be a scenario where Bogota is not as strong as we expect. And then pitcock come back and win in the

sprint. So he's my, uh, my wild card. Yeah, it's not, not a terrible pick cause he can, he can sprint like that's like Ben Healy. We just skipped right over him. He's third at plus 2000. The problem with Ben Healy is he's not going to go out sprint them. So what does he do? Like, is he really going to get away from them? And the Ben Healy's problem is he's always the bait. Like he's the one who goes and someone like Schelmos benefits from it. So it's, I don't like, I wouldn't pick Ben Healy. I think he'll be up there. I think he'll be active. I don't think he'll win. I'm quite curious. Yeah. Pitcock, some big moment in

his career because he's the problem with Pitcock is he's at risk of being a really, really good writer who can't be the top top guys like Evan, a pole, Vanderpol, Pogacar. And like this was this, this is a big race for him. It's a big classic season for him. If you want to break, if he wants to break through it. I mean, this is a big race for him. It's a big classic season for him. If you want to break, if he wants to break through it, I mean, this is a, who beat Tom Pickock on Wednesday. This is my wild card. I can't believe he's priced here. He probably won't win, but Kevin Vaklan plus 6,600 and then he's plus 11. No, sorry. He's 800 for the podium. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

So that's my wild card. But he can obviously, you know, to, to see, to see his performance on Wednesday was, was quite impressive. You know, he, he was by far the strongest of everybody else. It's the second time he, he does, he finishes second in flesh alone. The only, the only question mark I have is how does he perform above 200 kilometers? I haven't seen much yet, but listen, the guy's a big talent, young, very complete rider, can time trial, can climb. It's going to happen at some point. He's, you know, he's still improving. And he's writing for a contract. Maybe he has signed already. Probably he does. I mean,

right now, if I would be Kevin Voigtlaer or his agent, I wouldn't be worried about getting a contract. They're in line. They're in line. But you know, a huge performance in the Edvard Tournièges would obviously add to his arguments to negotiate a big contract. So yeah, I like it. Especially for that price plus 6,600. Something needs to happen for him to win, right? But with the other guys, well, he'll be up there. He's in great shape and, um, yeah,

he definitely has the qualities for this terrain. I mean, the obvious question would be how does he win? But as we saw last week, you don't always have to have a logical answer to that because I mean, would it put God chair and having to pull really get fooled two weeks in a row? Like you rewatch Amstel, it's like they're making a lot of mistakes. Like they're basically shepherding Schelmos into the finish line. Like here's sprint from third wheel. Like is it realistically they do that to you two weeks in a row?

Probably not. But Kevin Vauclan on the 200k question, he did win a tour stage last year, 200 kilometers long in the break for 195 kilometers of them. So that's not a nothing effort. Um, this would be like, you remember when Bobby young goals won this race? What was that? Like 20, did he win a tour de France stage? And I think you say zero stage, no, no tour stage. Sorry, sorry. I'm mistaken because it wasn't Italy. Yes, it was. It was in Beloglia.

On a climb. It's like famous in De Giro. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I was mistaken because it was in Italy. Yeah, yeah, but listen, I mean, he's... We haven't seen the last of Kevin Vocaela, that I can tell you. So, anyways, you know, it's these long tour stages or Vuelta stage or Giro stages

and classics, it's not the same. Um, but you know, if he can't do it now, he will definitely be able to do it at some point in his career. I have no doubt about that. Something that is interesting, I'm just flagging it for interest. Santiago Betrago, who was third here two years ago, 2023, plus 8,000 for the win. Is he going to win? Probably not. But he's plus 1100 for the podium. Not not a bad if you can, if you can find a place to put that bet in sound bad bet for the podium.

No, that's a good one. That's a good one. Um, you know, he probably won't be there with, uh, when the big fireworks are going on, but the guys, he keeps, he keeps going, you know, he keeps going. He never loses a lot of time. He comes back in little groups and then ultimately, you know, he could, I could perfectly see a scenario where it's Bogotar, uh, even a pool, um, 30, 40 seconds behind. And then a little group, but Rob, but Drago has come back to that group and then surprises everybody at the end.

That's a possibility. So I would go for the plus 1100 for the podium, not for the window. I mean, he's kind of secretly having an incredible two years. I can, he never really gets talked about, but the guy is good bike racer only 25 years old too. So the last one we'll do my favorite one winning margin margin between winner and second place. So less than a second, meaning that's a group plus one 75, one second or more, meaning solo win minus two 250. So the odds are very, very tilted

towards a solo winner. Yeah. You know, we have seen most of the big, most of the big races in the last two years have been one solo. I think Amstel was probably one of the, one of the only ones. I mean, it tends to be a sprint, a little sprint, you know, when, when pit cock one, it was also a little sprint the year before. Um, but you know, the big monuments, it's usually one guy. Um, I think the last time was actually when Pogacar won, no, it was a sprint. That's the last time that it was a little group. Yeah, it was 2021 was the last group at this race. Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah.

No, one guy. I think it's, yeah. I'm even looking at the historical data. It's pretty shocking. So in the last 10, so between 2014 and 2017, all those were sprints and then since then there's only been two sprints in the last seven editions. So it's clearly trending towards solo rider. I probably would go one second or more. I

think that's a smart pick. Yeah. And these guys like there's such, I mean, maybe, I mean, maybe, the only way this doesn't happen is Evanapol, Pogacar can't drop Evanapol. But these guys, it's like the rivalry is almost so big between them that they'll go above and beyond just to drop each other. They don't want to take each other to the finish line. Like we saw Evanapol trying to drop. The thing is, the thing is also, I mean, one of, one of the, one of the things we should consider between Pogacar and Evan, the pool is that, um,

well, I'll char doesn't necessarily need to drop Remco. I think, you know, eight times out of 10, he's faster, but Remco, has an incredible new confidence now in his finishing speed. So he also said, okay, I'll draw after 250 K. I will, I will win in the sprint against today. So, you know, maybe they stay together. Who knows? That is an interesting thing to think about because yeah, Remco wins one sprint.

Now he's taken everything to a sprint. It's like the funny, but he does have a lot of confidence in that sprint. He could be happy with it. But, but even, yeah, I don't know. Even if that happens, is there someone there like Ben Healy who's like, well, I don't want this to go to a sprint and then attacks and it breaks that whole truce. Because if those guys are together and they're not going to be pulling through full speed. Someone will come back to them probably. Yeah, probably. Yeah.

Well, you know, that's still Ben Healy still can't beat any of those two guys in the sprint. They would they would have to be like, you know, a hesitation between both and Ben Healy sneaks away, which, you know, with three riders, it's, it's, it's very unlikely to happen that one of those three sneaks away in the last kilometer and the other two are just sitting there watching each other. That's not going to happen. I probably won't happen. Especially with Renko. He's like, he's not going to just sit there and watch someone ride away with the wind. Um, I don't know. Now you're having me.

I know I'm questioning this. I wonder if the 175 is the way to go. The plus 175 versus the minus 250 on that. I'm going to go the other one. You go minus 250. I'm picking 175. Okay. It's a sprint the first time since 2021.

But do you have anything else to share before we wrap up? Nope. That's it, Spencer. All right. Well, thanks so much, Johan. And the race is on Sunday. I don't know if I said that. Sunday's the best only age on Peacock in the US. If you're a US based listener. Yeah. Okay. All right. And you'll have a show on Sunday, The Move, that comes out right after the race. Yeah. With Lance Armstrong at like four in the morning in Hawaii.

I'm curious to see how that goes. Yeah. All right. Well, thank you, Johan. Okay. Thanks, Spencer. Bye.