THEMOVE - Strade-Bianche 2025 Preview | OŪTCOMES
Episode Date: March 7, 2025Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down the course, contenders, and likely outcomes for tomorrow's Strade-Bianche, a 213-kilometer race over the hilly gravel roads of Tuscany, which is also one o...f the first, and most exciting, one-day Classics of the season. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the race will play out, which riders can even remotely challenge Tadej Pogačar, and who presents the best betting value. Become a WEDŪ Member Today to Unlock VIP Access & Benefits: https://access.wedu.team Hims: Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/themove for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary. Based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate.
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Discussion (0)
I think I know what you're going to say, but how do you think this is going to play out and who's going to win it?
Yeah, well, I mean, I'm not going to be very original Spencer, but I really can't see who can beat the Luch Art.
Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johann Brunel, and this is Outcomes.
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Everybody welcome back to outcomes. We are previewing a shot of Bianchi.
I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with the Yohan Bruniel. If you're wondering,
where's the move plus it's on hiatus through the spring and during these major
races where we will break down who, how we think the race is going to play out,
who's going to win and what you should bet if you would like to do so. And we'll be back with
the move plus during the more quiet weeks throughout the spring when there's not a major
race. But I will list off the favorites, Johan on Unibet in Europe. If you can find a book
in the U S that takes bets for this, that will probably be very similar odds. And then
we'll get your take on how it's going to play out and who's going to win. Tadej Pagache
is the favorite. I've never seen odds like this for a one day race. I feel like I've
started to say that for every race that Pagache is in, but this is ridiculous. He's minus
335 for the win. If you don't know what that means, that means you have to bet $335 to win $100. No, yes, to win $100. So that is crazy. That's like a grand tour
odds. Tom Pickock second at plus 900, Tom's Schweens at plus 2200, Matthias Feitchek at
plus 2,500, Tim Wellens plus 3,300, Pellobilbao plus 4,000, Ben Healy plus 4,000, Mark Hershey
plus 4,000, Isaac Del Toro plus 5,000, Roman Gregoire plus 5,000 Mark Hershey plus 4,000 Isaac del Toro plus 5,000 Roman Gregoire plus
5,000 Leonard Van Uptveldt plus 5,000 Kevin MacLennan plus 5,000 Christian Scrooney plus
6,600.
It goes on and on and on.
One of the weird oddities of Pagache are having odds like that is it pushes guys like Pop
Pitcock who won the race two years ago, almost into wild card money territory.
So that is the one advantage of this. But Johan,
I think I know what you're going to say,
but how do you think this is going to play out and who's going to win it?
Yeah, well, I mean, I'm not going to be very original Spencer,
but I really can't see who can beat Pogacar. If that's the, and this is,
this is something that we need to consider, right?
As a race like Stradivianca is a little bit like Pari Rubé, you know, there's there can be mechanical
problems. Usually, I mean, he does have a lot of teammates
around him that could still be fixed. But without any incident,
my favorite to win is Pogacar, of course, it's really bad odds,
no minus 305, 335 for the win, minus 910 for the podium.
I've never seen that.
That's absurd.
But yeah, going off what we saw in tour of UAE, knowing that this is a race he likes,
he came to this race to win it again.
We all know what happened last year, right?
He took off with 83k to go or
something. And that was it. Tomorrow, I think the circumstances are a little bit different. It's
supposed to be very mild weather, around 17 degrees, sunny and almost no wind. So it's going
to be fast and dusty. We're going to see a lot of dust. Um, but yeah,
well got charged my number one to win. I can't see how, uh,
if he doesn't have a problem with like a mechanical or a crash,
it's Pogacar's race.
Yeah, it's hard. It's hard to disagree with that. I mean,
just a little bit of background on the course and why this is such a theoretical
slam dunk for him. It's very hilly. Like it's
not, there's not big climbs, but it has 12,000 feet of climbing over 12,000 feet, almost 4,000
meters of climbing. It's a lot of gravel sections kind of mainly in the middle and an odd thing.
So it's constantly up and down. There are, the climbs are about one to two K long with a few shorter ones,
but it's relentless. You know, I went back and watched last year's race. I had forgotten
just, just, it must be a fixating to ride because you're just, you're either descending
gravel or you're climbing and it's just like that over and over and over again.
In oddity of the race, it's on max in the U S for those who want to watch it, but it's
213 K. So it's, it's getting up there to monument distance. They don't start televising it until about a hundred K to go. So you miss a lot of
the action. You turn it on and the Pelotons like, like last year, it was like 15 riders in the
Peloton when the TV started. So you don't, I don't have like the best understanding. I've never
raced this. So I don't really know what goes on before the TV cameras come on, but it, I think it's going to soften the legs up for a Pagache attack. I think he could
win this solo based on what we saw at UA tour. The guy is so strong, but the money is so
bad. I mean, if you bet a thousand dollars on them, you'd win $1,300. That's awful. I'm
just going for my pick. Let's just assume something happens to him. Even a flat tire might not be enough. Let's, he has a five mechanicals in a row.
Another thing that could happen, for example, which I can,
which I can perfectly envision is that, okay,
we're talking about Pogacar and this unbeatable guy, but he is human.
And you know, logically he would,
we will probably attack again where he attacked last year,
it was called St. Marie or St. Marie, I think, right. He actually last year was very unique
because he announced where he was going to attack. And he did and nobody could follow. So if he does
that again, it's not windy. and you know, there could be some
kind of organization behind and you know, a guy like if you
attack early, you can encounter yourself, right? You can
actually all of a sudden hit the wall doesn't happen often, but
it is it is possible. So that's another scenario where Boga
chart wouldn't win. If that you know, he goes early and he actually over
does it and, and, and runs out of energy or runs out, runs out of gas.
Can you think of an instance of this happening with Bogotar off the top of your head?
Yeah, I've already seen it in the past.
It seems impossible to imagine, but yeah, that's exactly what happened with,
with Vinda go Vinda guard. I'm it's less rare in one day races,
but I mean, that's the blueprint that you're describing right there.
So on that note, if that happens, if somehow this is a sprint,
I'm going Tom Pickock plus 900. That's, that's crazy money for Tom Pickock.
That's like wild card monies. He's won the race, not
last year, but the year before he's looking pretty good. Like didn't we say at the Saudi
tour he was putting out the best five and 10 minute power numbers of his career. So
I like, I like pitcock here. I mean, I don't like, I don't like them if we're, if this
was even money, but the fact that it's so slanted in his favor odds wise.
And you know, if it comes down to a sprint, like pick up could win.
Like he's not, he's a good sprinter.
Pagache is not.
He's punchy.
You know, he's very explosive.
Um, you know, that's why he won the race already.
So I think, I think that that plus nine hundredth, definitely a good pick.
I like it.
And it finishes on it's like a kilometer long climb. That's steep.
It's average of 9.7%, but the steep part, it must be like 12, 15% cobblestones.
You remember when Wapenar got cramps and he fell over.
But that was still, he was still basically that was actually,
I think one of the first years that he started to do some road racing, he was still a full, full, full on cyclocross rider. He was on a small Belgian team. If I'm
not mistaken, Verandas Williams or something like that. Yeah, that's exactly right. And I remember
he got in for third place and he stood up and he got cramps and he fell off his bike. I remember those images.
Yeah. Yeah. That's, wow. I feel like I'm getting old. I feel like that just happened. But
if Pogacar doesn't win, Pitcock doesn't win, do you have a second favorite?
A second favorite? I mean, that's, that's, that's, you know, it's not really a
podium favorite. But yeah, a guy who, in my opinion opinion is going to be in the mix and be there in front and then,
you know, I'm going to pick him because he's so consistent.
Especially at 4000 for the win.
More than that, even plus 500 for the podium.
He's always there.
You know, he almost never disappoints.
He's a very, very solid rider, great endurance. So
plus 4,000 and plus 500 for the podium. That's going to be my second choice.
Péo Bilbao from Bahrain, Victorious.
Yeah, I like this a lot. He's, he's freakishly consistent. I almost feel like he's getting
better as he gets older, but, and you never think about him in his last three finishes here, 2023, he was seventh,
2022, he was fifth, 2021, 10th.
And he's really good.
It's a good race for him.
Very possible he's on the podium.
I mean, he just finished third in the Dura of UAE.
So he's on good form.
And he was kind of under the radar.
He just has this under the radar style.
So he's like a gambler's favorite because he doesn't pop off,
pop out of the TV, his style.
He kind of is always maybe too cheap for how good he is. And this race is odd.
I mean, especially if there's someone up the road,
these groups don't behave how groups would normally act.
And it really helps a guy like Bill bow who keeps his nose out of the wind at
all costs. My,
let's call it a podium favorite
is Matthias of Vicheck plus 2,500 to win plus 400 a podium. I was really impressed
with this guy last weekend to be leading over the hardest climb at Omloop with like 16 K
to go. Like, and he's only, I want to say he's like 22, 23 years old. So in theory,
he's still getting better and he looks so good at the end of last year. It looks so good at the beginning of this year. I like him
for the podium a lot at plus 400.
Yeah. He was, he was the strongest guy rider individually in Omnibus Newsblood. First over
the Muir, first over the Bosberg. It's a guy with a huge potential. You know, we haven't
seen the last thing of this guy, Matteo. It's a guy with a huge potential. You know, we haven't seen the last thing of this guy, Matteo, it's Mattias, Mattias Vajchek.
Yeah.
Strong team too.
He had a brother who just retired
and actually just joined the agency,
the writer's representation of Alex Carrera.
He's becoming, his brother is Karol Vajchek.
Known, very well known to be one of the only riders to have beaten Remco Evenepoel in the juniors category. Really? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
But retirement. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good pick, Spencer. You know, if you're, if you're that strong last weekend, he's going to be there. The guy is explosive.
He's fast.
He's strong.
He can climb a bit, you know, the climbs, the climbs in on Strada Bianca are in within
his reach.
So and yeah, it's true.
He has a strong and very solid team around him.
Yeah.
Squeens who got second last year.
I think the magic, that was a magical few weeks for Tom's.
I would be shocked if he repeats that.
Badgioli, Boccamillema, Albert within Phillipson.
Is this one of his first major pro races?
Well, he did.
He already did.
Yeah.
And he's a mountain biker, correct?
Well, he's everything.
Yeah.
So he's a world biker, correct? Well, he's everything. Yeah. So he's world champion mountain bike juniors.
He's multiple Danish champion cyclocross.
I think two times world champion on the road already in the.
I don't know if it's in the juniors or a huge, I mean, one of the biggest talents.
So, you know, for him to be thrown straight away into the race like this, it's it's
quite quite the quite the statement. But they have a lot
of confidence in him at little track and curious to see. He's
very aggressive writer, you know, not shy at all to attack
or straight away, you know, at 19 years old or 18, 18 or 19
years old. In the game, and in a great guy. He's a great guy. He's a great guy. He's a great guy. He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy.
He's a great guy. He's a great guy. He's a great guy. He's a great guy. He's a great guy. strong. Like if one of them is in the move, like Vycek, like he could feasibly, they could have multiple riders in the group behind.
Like that's a very good place to be in a race like this.
Let's take a quick break for our sponsor. And then I've a,
we have a wild card that I'm actually, I think I'm quite excited about.
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All right back to the show. All right, welcome back Johan. Who is your wild card pick for this race?
That's the super wild super wild card. Yeah
It's a guy who has been present everywhere in every single race. He's done
Christian's car only he's done. Christian Scaroni. It's Christian, no? Yeah, it is. Christian Scaroni,
XDS Astana. He's I mean, if you look at all the points of this
year only, he's the number one rider in the world now of this
year. He has scored that many points has been the podium on
almost every single race he's done. One, two races
already, I think two or three. And pretty good climber. I saw in a few days ago in Trofeo La
Guelia won by Juan Ayuso. He was the only rider who could follow Ayuso every single time, never got in trouble, even
attacked, counter-attacked him.
So based on that and the condition he has right now, this guy's going to be in the front.
To win, of course, it's going to be difficult, but based on the condition he has, at some
point it's going to start to come down this condition because it's clear that
Astana or XDS Astana and Scarone particularly, they have prepared the beginning of the season like full. It's benefiting them a lot because they've scored so many points already.
I think that's our super wild card. He is what? He's plus 6,600 for the win and plus 500 for the podium.
So that's my super wild card.
Yeah.
I like this a lot.
I mean, as you say, this, I think he's in like, this is probably as strong as he's going
to be all year.
He's done 11 races so far in the season.
He's finished in the top five, eight times as any as two wins and a GC win.
So three wins, I guess, technically, but
yeah, I was really impressed with, he was, didn't look like he was about to be dropped by IU. So
on IU, so man, pretty impressive. He's just like, yeah, I can't drop them. I'll just drop back and
win the sprint by like 50 bike links. That was, makes me a little worried about how Scronie is
going to fare in a sprint, but man, it's plus 500 for the podium for probably the hottest writer.
That's not Tadej Pogacar right now.
So a little under priced in my opinion, like he's been incredible.
If you're really closely watching these races, Scaroni is, is flying right now.
Like every day XDS Asana, this is like, everything is for the spring,
kind of a home race for them. You know, that's like an Italian flair to the team. A lot of Italian writers,
Scroony is an Italian writer. It's, it's, I think this could, uh, this could be a good race for
Astana. Yeah, for sure. And I mean, there's, there's a lot you could, you could sit here all day.
You don't want to name people forever. Um, Like Quinn Simmons is plus 10,000 for the win plus 700 for the podium.
Is he going to win? Probably not. Is he going to podium? The only thing we talk about Simmons,
like, is he going to be top 10? There's a good chance he's had a hard time converting those top
five, top tens into top threes at this race in the past. So that would be my hesitation there.
But just before we go, Johan, I have a few questions for you on the women's race. The women's is
the same day later. I want to add, I think the odds, something stuck out to me. Demi-vulnering
the favorite minus one 12. So to see a negative favorite at a one day race is really rare
because there's so many variables like that. Just to punch that into my calculator,
that is equivalent to 52% chance of winning.
Do you know how many times Demi Vullerin has won this race?
Once once. Yeah. Like it's not a sure thing.
Like, yeah,
it's a lot of Copacchi is not at the start. Well, it's, uh, I mean, lotto Kopecki is not at the start. Um, is Mariana Vos at the start?
I'm going to guess no. She's still racing this year. Yeah, yeah, for sure. Yeah. She's not,
she's not at the start. Uh, so I guess the second favorite would be Buck Peterson.
Um, and, uh, I mean, she's strong, She's young. It's a good course for her too.
But I think, I think, you know, based on the endurance and this, and the
distance of the race and the toughness, uh, it's, it's Demi.
She's long.
Go, Burgini, Longo, Burgini, Longo, Burgini.
But then I think Demi normally beats her in the sprint.
What about Neodoma?
Yeah. Okay. Yeah. She'd have to drop ballerina.
Yeah, but I think I think I think Cassia Nia Doma is not in her top shape yet.
Seems to me like she's probably going to, you know,
take a few races to get into and into it.
This is going to be there.
You know, she's one of the best riders, but I think following is super strong. She's going to be there. She's one of the best riders, but I think Ferrand is super strong.
She's going to win.
Two other names for it.
Anna van der Breggen's plus 1400.
She's maybe not.
Oh no, van der Breggen is racing.
Okay.
That's going to be interesting.
I'm curious to see.
Listen to this one though.
Pauline Ferrand-Prevot plus 3300.
Is that a little low for the best mountain biker in the world who's now going full time
on the road?
She hasn't shown anything yet.
I mean, she hasn't shown yet that she has the level of these riders.
She'll still need a few more months if she can get to that level.
Interesting.
You know, she's, she's been there in the past.
But I think for now, I think Volaring is a level above all these riders.
Yeah. I mean, the only thing I would caution against is Volaring is not an
automatic one day winner.
Like what's the last one day race she won against the best competition.
It would be, it's been a minute. Maybe it might be Strada.
It seems to me though, however, Spencer, that she's on a higher level this year.
She's definitely incredibly fit.
Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I would, I would think that too.
I'm, I'm tempted with the van and break. I, I'm going to be watching this. I'm not officially
betting on this. I'm still in my, uh, I'm in my observation phase of women, of the women's cycling season.
I'm going to be closely watching that race because I'm quite curious to see how
that goes. Here's another question for you. Perry knee starts on Sunday.
Torino at a radical starts on Monday. These are week long stage races.
Nieces is eight days. Uh, at retico is seven days.
They both finished next Sunday.
We're not going to do an outcomes for
this because it doesn't technically make that much sense to bet on the GC of a stage race like this
before it starts. We don't know a lot. So that's one. And like Jonas Vindigo is minus 176 to win
the overall. Could he win the overall? Yeah. Is he, we don't really know how strong he is. Like
that's a big thing. You can always just wait until.'s strong. He's strong. Uh, it's a goal
for him. He hasn't won Paris Nice yet. You know, he's one Tireno already. Um,
I think, I think Vingard is going to win. Um, depending on what happens, uh,
with, you know, how the race develops, because let's not forget
in these races, Parinis often and Tirreno sometimes, you know, sometimes the stage is
canceled, you know, because of the bad weather. But if everything goes normally, I think Wingard is winning. Um, is winning.
But he needs and I used to winning.
Yeah. I don't have the odds in front of me for that, but lock,
lock that in on I used. So here's the question with Vindicaar defending champion, Matteo Jorgensen, his teammate plus three 50 is Matteo Jorgensen.
I think Perry Nice is a better race for him than Jonas. You know what?
I forgot about him.
I, I, I, okay.
I mean, sorry.
Yeah.
I would bet.
Yeah.
I would at the same level, at the same level as, uh, as Jonas, in my opinion, in this race.
Now, the question is, how's the, the pick picking order going to be at Visma, right?
There's going to be a situation where Jonas and Mateo are going to be in a front group.
And then logically, Mateo is going to have to sacrifice
himself for Jonas because the chances that Jonas
can ride away from the rest are bigger than
when Mateo can ride away from them.
Mateo is more of a diesel, you know, he can, he can stay with the first guys and, you know,
stay there. And because of his consistency when Parinís, Jonas usually rides away from everybody.
But it's a great, it's great to have both of those guys. I would love, I would have loved that.
Yeah.
Pretty nice for the director.
Um, Jonas normally rides away from people.
He didn't earlier this year.
Here's where it gets super, super interesting.
Stage three team time trial times taken at the individual finisher.
So there'll be time trialing with each other, but also against each other, which is quite
fascinating.
Yeah. Uh, Jonas and Jonas and Matteo other, which is quite fascinating. Yeah.
Jonas and Jonas and Mateo are going to come in together.
Yeah.
If everything goes to plan, they'll, here's, here's another one that's interesting.
I think, I think personally, Mateo Jorgensen probably wins.
Jonas Vindigo also very good chance of winning.
My third favorite is Pavel Sivakov.
He is at plus 3,300. I mean,
that guy is so strong right now. Like that seems a little low. That would be the one
rider I would bet on right now, because his odds are only going to get worse, like for
you, for the better.
And also, I mean, great team for the team time trial. You know, I mean, like you could,
you could also say, for example, you could say, okay, David Godu, for example, right. Two years ago, was it two years ago? He was second. He'd been
doing the guard, but they're going to lose time in the team time trial. I mean, not, not much, but
Godu is, since Godu has to be, it's his time. They're going to have to bring him to the finish.
You know, he's not going to be the driving force of the team.
Time trial is not a great time. I'm promised. So he'll lose some time there.
Yeah. No, thanks on that bet. I don't, I don't know.
I don't trust him right now. Like it wasn't a televised race,
but the tour of Oman where he was just like,
he won one of the mountain stages and he got dropped on another one.
It was like, well, what's going on there with the consistency?
So I don't think I'd ever really put any amount of money.
What does he, what does he add on here?
Is he in this race?
He might not be.
Oh, in Salviangi, I mean.
Or in Periniis.
Oh no, he's on, where, where is it?
Go do racing.
Hold on a second. Oh, maybe he's in, where is Godou racing? Hold on a second.
Oh, maybe he's in Torino.
Torino.
Oh really?
Yeah.
That's kind of shocking.
Then he's not going to be in the top of Perriniis.
Don't bet on him to win Perriniis.
Don't, that bookie takes that bet.
He's ripping you off.
I did the, the Sivakov one really stuck out to me.
I mean, cause we were both so impressed with him on the Algarve, no, Andalucia, Routedale
soul.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And man sitting out there at plus 3300 with that team and the team time trial, that would
be the one I would bet on before the race starts.
Yeah.
And I guess because you're right about Jorgensen really good, good race for him.
Is he stronger than Jonas
Vindegaard on those uphill finishes? Maybe I'm not so confident about that.
I mean, you know, if he can ride his own race and save himself, he would be very close.
I fear that he's going to be put in a position where he has to at some point get into the
domestic role and do a lead out to prepare an attack for Jonas. And then even if you're not dropped, you're still losing time. And it's not ideal. I mean, what's the biggest finish here?
There's like, yeah, like some of these climbs are like 7k, 7%.
What is that like 20 minutes for pro?
Those climbs are good for Matteo.
They're really good for him.
It just depends how much Jonas has improved.
And I think that's the biggest thing.
And I think that's the biggest thing. that like 20 minutes for pro? Those climbs are good for Mateo. Really good for him.
It just depends how much Jonas has improved.
And I'm pretty sure he has improved since Algarve.
Yeah.
It's kind of hard actually now that you make me visualize it,
visualize Mateo Jorgensen dropping Jonas Vindegaard on some of these up-dills.
It can happen tactically, you know?
Yeah.
Yeah.
I mean, especially the final day, you know, that's the ultimate cluster F of stuff can
just get really weird.
And Mateo is so good at that type of racing, or at least since he made the move to Visma.
Yeah, for sure.
Another funny one, Mateo Scalmos,mos plus 3,300 to win perinice.
I don't fully get that.
Yeah.
The Sivakov one stuck out to me the most.
The first day, I don't just, some of these are traps.
I feel like it's a 10 earlier plus is the first stage of perinice 10 earlier plus one
50 Mads Pedersen plus three 50.
Fabio Jacobson plus 2,500 Holy smokes.
But you know, it's like, I don't know if I have enough data points to feel that confident
to bet on the opening stage of Perry knees without really knowing. Cause we saw him earlier
at the UA tour, but then we don't have a great sample. Cause he went off route slightly on
Saturday. It's I don't really know where he is, how he is or no, sorry. It was,
it was at Kern. Yeah. On Sunday. It was,
I don't really know where he's at.
So I don't feel confident enough to put money on that.
I'm just trying to see if we can bet on a, are you so they don't have Torino,
Andretta going to bet that's going to be a hard race to find someone song. But Johan, do you have anything else to add before we take off?
That's it. No patient, impatient to see tomorrow's Stradivianca.
Um, yeah, I'm very excited and impatient to see it as well. I wanted to mention this to you before
we went this peri-anese time trial format where it's a team. You start as a team, but the times taken
with the individual. Did you say they're, see they're doing this at the tour de France
in 2026 on the opening stage?
I mean, it could, it could happen. I mean, they're, they're obviously testing it out.
Um, then they want, you know, they want some, something new. Um, I think it's good. I think it's good. You know, I mean, uh,
I mean, what was it before the, was it on the fifth?
It was on the fifth rider, right? When they have eight writers. So,
um, yeah, I think it's great. I like it.
Especially if there's an uphill, like I think the team time trial, the 20, 26 tour finishes on Mon Drie.
So you don't really want like, can you imagine if you're Remco and you have to wait for the fifth quick set brighter? That's not really fair.
Yeah. Well, yeah, we'll let you go, Yohan.
I'm excited to watch this and we will be back on Monday,
which we're chain cappy to talk about the race. No, no, we won't. Sorry, I've got my weeks.
You guys will be on tomorrow to talk about the race and then we'll be back next week.
Yeah.
All right. Have a good weekend and we'll talk soon.
Okay. Thanks.
Bye.