THEMOVE - Tour de France GC & Stage 1 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 4, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's opening stage of the Tour de France as well as the General Classification and Points Jersey battles. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/   Rugiet Ready: Head to https://rugiet.com/THEMOVE and use code THEMOVE to get 15% off today.   Caldera Lab: Upgrade your routine with Caldera Lab and see the difference for yourself. Go to https://CalderaLab.com/THEMOVE and use THEMOVE at checkout for 20% off your first order   Manukora: Go to https://MANUKORA.com/THEMOVE to save 31% plus $25 worth of free gifts

But I just think that for Jonas to win, everything needs to fall into place and nothing can go wrong. And I don't have that feeling with today that they can have a few mishaps and I can still see him in a position to win. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johann Bruniel. And this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem,

seek help from a professional resource. Host and guest may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Welcome back to Outcomes, everybody. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernil. We are predicting stage one of the Tour de France, as well as the overall and the green Jersey classification.

Johan, I think we probably know who's going to win. And if you're not familiar, this is the two of France, 21 stages and two rest days of the starts off with the first nine stages. And they just broke this down kind of in more depth on the move podcast. So we won't double, we won't delve into it here as much, but just a brief overview is the first nine stages are classic key sprinty stages up in the North one time trial on stage five, we go into the rest day and then the second week quite hard, you have multiple tough mountain stages in the Pyrenees. You have a summit finish mountain time trial basically on stage 13, then you have a rest day and then you have the Alps in the third week.

They come right out of the rest day with a Mont Ventoux Summit finish, like a hockey stick stage, nothing before it, just straight into it. And then you have a couple brutal Alpine stages, like stage 18, stage 19, stage 20 is pretty tricky. And then a new twist to the finish in Paris on stage 21, there's the climb at Montmartre, multiple circuits of it.

That could be tricky as well. The basic breakdown is seven mountain stages, seven flat stages, six hilly stages, two time trials. That equals 22, but it's because that one of the time trials is a mountain stage. I'll list off the odds for stage one and then we'll get Johan's take on who's gonna win. And we have a new partner this year, NextBets.

It's NXTBets. It's nxtbets.com. And if you go to nxtbets.com backslash bet outcomes, the link will be in the show notes. You can get, they'll guide you to the best signup bonuses, where you can bet where you live. The number one question we get is, where can I bet where I live? I live in California. Where can I play? This will tell you exactly where you can go. It will refer you. You'll get signup bonuses. It's fantastic I highly recommend it. But the odds this is I'm cherry picking the best odds from every book Tim merlier stage one. He's plus 170 jonathan milan plus 225 yasper phillipson plus 450 Jordi mao's plus

2200 drops off quite quickly. Benium grama plus 22ai plus 2200, Wout Van Aert plus 2800, Dylan Grunewagen plus 3300. As you can tell, it's a sprint stage. It starts in Lille, finishes in Lille. Johan, who is your pick for stage one? Yeah, as you say, Spencer, almost guaranteed a sprint stage. It's never completely guaranteed,

but a lot would have to go wrong for it to not be a sprint stage. I think a breakaway has no chance. The stakes are high, especially because it's not every day that sprinters can take the yellow jersey in a Grand Tour, and that's what's going to happen tomorrow. So it's the stage victory and the yellow jersey on the line. So I'm going to go for Tim Merlid. He is, in my opinion, one of the craftiest sprinters. And he's been on a roll lately. I don't exactly remember how many races he won already, but definitely more than 10. Current European champion and very famous for in the few in, in the few ground tours he has participated in.

He has won always the first sprint stage. Now this is stage one, so I'm going to go for him. Uh, he's the big favorite to win. So, uh, what is he, what is it? 220 or? I saw him at plus one. The best I could find is plus 170 at Fandall. Okay. Okay. Well, yeah, I think, uh, that's still, it's still worth it. He's free. Tim Marley is my favorite. I actually read an interview of him yesterday. Very, very interesting. It's on, it's in Belgium and Belgian magazine, but you know, very interesting character and very atypical sprinter, very quiet introvert.

And basically, you know, hasn't figured out how he can perform the best. I can see him winning tomorrow's stage. Interesting. I mean, he's very good at stage, not even in grand tours, just stage races in general, like UAE Tour this year, wins the opening stage, when he's, he might be the fastest 100 meter sprinter

in the world tour. He's very good when he gets a clean run at the line. When things get more complicated, he's not as good. I'm going with, and this is tough. There's a lot of good sprinters here. I'm going with Jonathan Milan plus 225. I think Milan, if Merlier's the fastest rider, Milan's the one giving him like the toughest time.

Like these two guys I think are the fastest straight line sprinters. Milan's never done the tour, which is slightly concerning because it is a different beast from every other grand tour, but he's got a super strong little track team. He is incredibly fast. Like the guy can, his absolute power must be just up there

with better than anybody else. So I'm going Jonathan Milan to win the stage and get the first yellow Jersey. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I can see that. I mean, he's, listen, Milan's super strong, super fast. Uh, as you say, little track has a very strong team. Um, yeah, I think, I think it's right to put him up there. And let's say those guys don't win. Do you have a wild card pick for stage one? Well, yeah, I mean, a wild card, it's actually really,

it's unbelievable. If you look at these odds, Spencer, my wild card is gonna be Binyam Girmaik. You know, let's not forget, he won three stages last year and the green Jersey. Didn't have a great season so far. You just brought to my attention that last year was more of the same. But the fact that a triple stage winner of last year and the green jersey of last year is plus 2200 is just unbelievable. So he's going to

be my wild card. Vignam Girmaie, I think think gets to another level once he's at the Tour de France. And if things get hectic, I could see him be the first stage winner also. That is interesting. I don't quite know what's going on there. Maybe he's not quite as fast, pure speed as these guys. But even, you know, these stages are not like, there are a few like pure sprint stages, but even tomorrow, 185 kilometers, So these stages are not, like there are a few like pure sprint stages, but even tomorrow, 185 kilometers, there's three classified climbs. They're all cat four, but like it might not be,

they're not going to be rolling around out there and then sprinting at the end. Like there will be fatigue in the legs. Still, I mean, you know, the two, the Fort Cot climb in the tour, it's that's every, every Tour de France rider gets over it. This is a different beast.

I don't think anyone's getting dropped. I just think maybe the like Phillipson does so well at the tour cause he, I think he fatigues less. So, so he can sprint better against these guys who maybe are more powerful on paper. Yeah. Yeah. I just find it really strange. Those odds in the first sprint stage,

the first stage that you have three, three guys. So plus one 50 plus two 54 for Milan and plus 400. And then it's like every other sprinter, they have no chance. According to the books, Jordi Maes, Vinjam Girma, Grunewagen plus 2,500. I mean, lots of things can happen in a sprint. You know, it's crazy. Jordi Maes could win this state. It's not impossible because you're right. It's not gonna be a breakaway. This is gonna be a sprint.

Sprints are a bit of a lottery. Maes could win. On that note, Maes is not my wild card. And I think this is a mistake. I don't quite know what's going on here. Pascal Ackerman on Israel Premier Tech has not had a good lead in. He's 10,000 to win.

Like crazier things have happened than Pascal Ackerman winning stage one, plus 1800 to podium. So, and he finished what, third on two stages of the tour last year. This isn't just like a pipe dream. I'm dreaming up over here. Like he got, the man has podiumed tour stages recently

and he's plus 1800 a podium. I almost wonder if this is a mistake at the books. I don't believe he's currently seriously injured because as you mentioned, that's a strong team. They would bring someone else if he was. I would go Ackerman as my wild card. That's a big bet, Spencer. That's a big bet.

You just put a little bit of money on it. You're going to make a lot of money. Plus 10,000, even plus 1800 for the podium is worth it. You know that, I mean, if we're being honest, that one is, is the more likely one. Yeah. Like Ackerman gets third and we're like, whoa, where'd that come from? It's been a long time since he won a big race. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So yeah, think about the podium there. I mean, even like Jordi Meyos

to win at 2200, that's an interesting wild card as well. But let's take a quick break you on to hear from our partners and then we will predict the overall. And I'm very curious to see who you pick. Everybody. This episode is brought to you by Rugee at ready guys. You've probably heard of some Viagra or Cialis. Maybe you've even tried them. Are you looking for something beyond the usual pill? Meet Rugiate Ready. Other companies rely on similar ingredients to support blood flow, but Rugiate Ready is a next-gen prescription treatment designed to help amplify arousal in the brain and increase blood flow. If the usual pills aren't doing the trick, Rugiate Ready could be the answer. I wonder if it could be good for cycling.

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and use the move at checkout for 15% off your first order. All right, welcome back to the show everybody. Johan, we don't need to dive into every stage. All you need to know is there's two time trials. One of them is up a mountain. There are what, seven, I guess six summit finishes, very hard mountain stages. It's an easy course only because it takes a while

to get to the mountains. I believe stage 12 is the first like big mountain day. But then after that, it's a lot of mountain days clustered together. It's gonna be difficult. That will decide who wins this race. Who do you think wins this overall? Well, wait, I need to list the odds before we do that. I've clicked out of my page. Oh no. So just as a general overview,

this is on Unibet and again, next bets.com backslash bet outcomes will give you all the best places to bet. Where you live? Tadej Pogacar minus 265. That is a huge favorite. Jonas Vindegaard plus 225. Rimko Abinopol plus 1400. Joao Meda plus 2500. Primoz Roglic plus 3000. We probably don't need to say anyone past that. Yeah. No, I, listen, I, I have to go with Tadej Pogacar. Heavy favorite. I have to go with Tadej Pogacar, a heavy favorite. 1-0 last year has been, this year, in my opinion, more dominant than last year in the season so far. So it's logical to think that he's on a higher level than last year, and especially his performance

in the Dauphiné was outstanding. I mean, he won that, I'm not going to say easy, but comfortably. And he would have won with a lot more advantage if he would have really have pushed every single stage. You know, Jonas of course is going to be the big challenger, but bearing accident or sickness or mechanical problems, mechanical problems even I don't think it will stop him. But you know, crash or sickness. I don't see how Bogotá can be beaten in this race. Yeah, even at that price, that sounds ridiculous. but like, let's just say you get them at minus two 70,

that's a 73% chance of winning. So if he wins 73% of the time or greater, you make money on that. I would say, yeah, that's like, he's probably chances are higher than that because you said the only way he loses is if I don't think a mechanical is enough. I don't think a mechanical is enough. I don't think the flat is enough. I think he would have to have a serious crash in these first nine days or get very sick

or sick during a mountain stage. He's kind of fixed all his weaknesses. You guys talked about it in the preview show, like, oh, they're going up Colt De La Lowe's where he was dropped, on to where he was dropped. It's like, well, he's a way better climber than he was. When that happened, I don't think I can even throw a name out there

that someone should bet on other than him. I think I also just, the responsible move is to suggest Tadej Pogacar. I've been betting on him over the last like six months. Like, you know, after the time trial at the Dauphiné, he was actually, he fell quite a bit. Like his odds were quite good. Everyone freaked out and thought Jonas was going to win the tour.

So I bet on them then. So just personally, I have a lot of money on Teddy Pagani Charter win this race. Having said that, I'm just going to ask you a question. You know, this Finnegan plus two 50 that that is kind of intriguing because the guys won the tour two times and he's very good. He's not, it's not like, Oh, he's washed up. Like he's probably better than when he won the tour. Is it, are we overlooking him at all?

Are you comfortable going with? No, when you have to, you have to, you have to take him into account and respect him. And you know, he is, he is for the moment, the second best rider in the world in terms of grand tours, and especially if you're talking about the Tour de France. But I just think that for Jonas to win, everything needs to fall into place and nothing can go wrong. And I don't have that feeling with Tadej.

Tadej can have a few mishaps and I can still see him in a position to win. And I think, for example, in this case here, the way this Tour de France is designed, Polacar is a lot better backhandler, a lot better in the peloton, will spend a lot less energy in the first 10 days than Jonas. Even if Jonas has always teammates, there are a lot of moments you're on your own and you have to fight, you know? And I just see that Jonas is more stressed on the bike than Tadej.

And that adds up. And so the way this Tour de France is designed, I think is even if you say, okay, the hardest mountains are in the, in the end, the way Pogacar can ride his bike compared to Jonas, I think is a huge advantage in terms of saving energy and staying out of trouble and staying out of trouble. I totally agree. I mean, it's also, it's very possible. It's possible Pogacar crashes. If he crashes and has a problem,

Vindigard is gonna win this race. So do with what you will with that information. I don't think it's likely. The thing that is bothering me on like this whole conversation is it's like, oh, well the hard climbs are at the end. Jonas is a better climber. It will, that gives the advantage to Jonas.

What? Did what happened on stage 20 of the tour last year, Johan? Did Pogacar not nuke everybody? What about stage- Well, you know, I think people who say that, you know, we have to take into account that Jonas last year was not at his full potential, right? And then if you go back to the year before,

the day was not as full potential because he came back from a fracture. So we can actually only go back to 2022 where both of them were at the start in their best shape and Tadej lost. But anyways, I think now Jonas had a perfect preparation, focusing every go on the tour. And today had an incredible spring, but showed up at the Dauphiné and was having shoulders above Jonas.

So I don't know how easy it could be to bridge that gap from Dauphiné to the Tour de France. There's also no guarantee that everyone, I think it's just the way the human mind works. You look at that Dauphiné to the Tour de France. There's also no guarantee that everyone, I think it's just the way the human mind works. You look at that Dauphiné and you say, well, Jonas is going to get better. It's like, well, Tadej could get better. Like, why would he,

why would they both not be improving before the tour? Like that's not Tadej's peak form. Like he's going to improve before the tour. So I'm not saying that Jonas Vandegrift is not going to win this race. I'm just saying those arguments bother me because they seem to just like iron out inconvenient details. The fact that Tere Pagache, his climbing performances in the last two days of the last tour were unbelievable. The last two mountain days, like even if Jonas was at his best, like I don't

think he's dropping Pagache on those stages. I think, listen, it's, you know, you always have to try and get some hope or some motivation out of something, you know? And so there's also, you know, this, this way of talking up your game and say, you know, I'm okay. I'm better after three weeks. I'm, I mean, I'm a better in long climbs and this and no, uh, Jonas is better in the heat than today, but it was super hot in the dofini. Jonas is better in the heat than today, but was super hot in the Dauphiné. So, uh, now I just think that Pogacar is, is just a much better rider now than, uh, in, in, you know, but he's better than 2024 where he was almost unbeatable. I think he's better now and he's definitely better than 22 and 23,

but he didn't win the tour. And then the last argument everyone pulls out is the teams. So it's like, Oh, Visma is strong, but it's like, well, UA is pretty strong. And in fact, UA might have the better second option in Almeida than anyone Visma has. Yeah. Well, you can say, you can say, okay, Visma has Simon Yates, who just won the Giro. But yeah, normally when you win a grand tour and that kind of caliber of rider, right? Like Simon Yates, I, he's going to be okay, but I don't expect him to be at all at the level of the Giro.

Well, in the Tour de France, I think Pagachar broke some brains. Like, yeah, he won the Giro Tour double. And also Spencer, you know, one of the things that I think is important because, you know, they say, okay, well, Visma has a strong theme in the depth, right? And that's true. You know, they have Matteo Jorgensen, they have Simon Yates, who could potentially be two threats to send into breaks, right? And in crucial stages in mountains. Personally, I mean, this is just my own feeling, right? I think they're only

going to be able to use Matteo Jorgensen for that because Yates, Simon Yates, I mean, I respect him. He's a really good writer. But you know, he won already his big goal. He has won the Giro. That's like, wow. He knows he's not going to win the tour ever. Right. Simon Yates and Adam Yates, but you know, we're going to talk about Simon here. They're not very famous to be riding in front of the Peloton. I expect when the mountains arrive, that Simon Yates could easily be already 10 minutes behind in the GC because he's got in a split and then you cannot use him anymore strategically to push,

put pressure on UAE in terms of breakaways. Right. So they need to keep Jorgensen and Simon Yates in the front of the palette, in the front of the classification until the first big mountain stage. And I think with Simon Yates, that's not going palette, in the front of the classification until the first big mound stage. And I think with Simon Yates, that's not going to happen. I mean, do you think even physically he's going to be able to, it's very rare for writers to win the zero and come back and be sharp at the tour. Yeah, it's rarely happened. It's difficult.

And especially also mentally, you know, like he comes off a high, he's going to, listen, he's going to do his job whenever he can, but it's like a balloon, like a big balloon that has been under pressure and you kind of let the air out a little bit, you know, to pump it up again to full pressure, it's not easy six weeks later. Yeah, like the North of France, a longish time trial, gotta be one of the longest time trials of the year,

stage five, and then like a massive central stage. He's not a bad time trial. Is this, I mean, I think I'm not really dialed in. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I'm more worried about, you know, these, these hectic stages and positioning and him being in the back of the Peloton. I I'm a lot more worried about that. I'm comfortable saying the Yates brothers will not decide this to it for us. I think it's going to be between, it's going to be rider against rider. Pogacar. Well, that's the thing. You know,

we've been talking about this for quite a bit now, you know, like we can debate about who has a stronger team, but once they're in the mountains and Pogacar accelerates, it is only one guy who can stay with him for a limited amount of time. And it's Jonas. Teams don't matter anymore. And we saw that the Delfina Pogacar gets out of the saddle and it's, it's one-on-one. There's nobody there to help. But before we move on, we should give, I want your podium picks. So Pogacar is going to win.

Who finishes on the podium? I'm going to say Pogacar first, Jonas second, Almeida third. Okay. So Yon is still, still not good value. Yonis is minus 575 to podium. Almeida, this is interesting. This maybe is my favorite pick. Almeida is plus 250 to podium. I think the guy is, is the third best stage racer

in the world right now. I would be very comfortable betting on that. The only zag I would have Florian Lipowitz plus 400 to podium. What do you think about that, Johan? Yeah, I mean, finished third behind those two at He's super strong, super strong. First to the France also not great in positioning. Not great at all. That's not going to matter at this tour, is it? I still, yeah, I don't know. I, you know, I mean, it's a pity, it's a pity we can't bet for top fives because I have a top five candidate who I have high hopes in. Nobody thinks about, but it's Mattias

Skelmoser. Well, the money's not very good. You can't do top 10 for both of these guys. Yeah. Lipowitz is minus 400, Skelmoser minus 120, which is actually a really good bet. Because I think Skelmoser is going to grow in this tour. He comes from an injury or a sickness. He had to, you know, didn't, it wasn't able to do tour of Switzerland because of sickness. Then he did this race in Andorra. He won it.

Not a big field, but still, I think Skelmoser is going to be top five in the tour. Yeah, I don't hate that. What do you think about Enric Maas for top 10? Is there any chance he finishes out the top 10? They should be paying us money. There is, there is money. There is a possibility.

He sometimes has a really bad day. Can we bet on like, that Moss will at no point ever be on the front. What would be the odds of that? No, I think he will, for some stages. He will be there. Yeah. You know, I remember last year he found it out with Carapaz therefore. It's true. It's a good stage.

Yeah. Yeah. Well, let's take another quick break. And then I want your thoughts on the green Jersey because I think this is going to be actually the interesting plot of this tour. But this episode is brought to you by Manukor honey. Are you looking for something simple and delicious to add to your wellness routine? Well, look no further because Manukor honey

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All right, we are back. So the points Jersey classification, which is the green Jersey. I'll just read the odds. This is on DraftKings. Jonathan Milan plus 250. Jasper Philipson plus 275. Wout Van Aert plus 500.

Tim Merlier plus 700. Tadej Pogacar plus 700. Vinnyam Gromai, defending champion plus 1,100. Jordi Maez plus 500, Tim Merlier plus 700, Tadej Pogacar plus 700, Binyam Gurmai, defending champion, plus 1100. Jordi Maez plus 2500, we don't have to go past. Actually Thibaut Nice plus 8,000. So points classification, it is weighted. It's really just where you finish on the stage. First is more points, last would be no points.

And then there's intermediate sprints. You have to be a good sprinter to win it. You have to win stages. Not always though. And you have to be like very consistent. That's why John, I guess Jonathan Milan can climb. He can sprint. He's a good classics writer. That's why he's first. But who do you think is going to win this classification, Johan? Yeah. Well, I mean, it's,

it's also different Spencer because some stages have more points than others, right? And those sprint stages have more, have bigger points. So that's why the sprinters are more favorite. But I mean, I'm going to go with Tadej Pogacar for the green jersey. I think he's going to be in front in so many stages that he's a serious candidate for the green jersey also. stages, uh, that he's a serious candidate for the green Jersey. Also, you know, it sounds, it sounds a little goofy when you say it, but he's, he, I think he's going to place really well and probably get quite a few time

bonuses in these first nine stages. And then we get into his terrain, where he'll only rack up more and more. So I plus plus 700, he said. Plus 700 for the best rider in the race. Um, notably Matthew Vanderpoel is, is he even on this list? I can't even find him. Um, interesting. So I guess Vanderpoel not,

not highly rated to win this class fake classification. I'm going to go Jonathan Milan just because I'd be kicking myself if he wins it plus two 50. He does. He's quite a consistent sprinter even if he's not winning and he's a really good climber and he can, you know, he, he's a good classics writer too. And the first nine stages are very akin to classics. So like Tim Merlier is lower because he's not as good of a climber, just not all around as good as like Milan or I guess Phillips and Phillips and

would really have to win some stages. I think to contest this. What, what also, what do you think about well, but our post 500 still feels a little high for me since he does have a full plate of work you'd imagine. Yeah, but you won't already said that he's not, uh, he's not making an objective. He, uh, he just wants to pick out a few stages and do his full job for the team. I think if you win this, you're going to be fully focused on it. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. And if Benium wins again, we'll all look like fools. I can't believe he's that far down. Yeah, that's crazy actually. But I guess they go off what they've seen so far and Benyam Girmay hasn't shown us that we can have confidence. Unless he pulls off again, something like last year. It's not impossible. Before we go, there's a name we have not mentioned.

Rimko Evanopol. How do you think he's going to do? Before we go, there's a name we have not mentioned. Remco Evenepoel. How do you think he's going to do? He is, for the overall win, he's plus 1000, plus 100 to podium. He finished third last year. How do you think he's going to do with this tour? I see on Unibet here, he's one plus 150 for the podium. No, listen, he is the third candidate, especially. I mean, if you compare, for example, you know, I picked Almeida, but if you compare

Remco and Almeida, normally Remco should be in the advantage because he's the leader of the team. It's the whole team for him. Almeida will have to at some point sacrifice his own chances for Pogacar, but he will be the last man. And, you know, he can time trial also. I mean, I'm with Almeida, I'm also a bit worried about the positioning, by the way. Same as for Simon Yates, for example. So yeah, Remco, I can see Remco, I think Remco is going to win the time trial. Um, unless, unless, uh, Philippo Ghana wins. That's also, that's also not impossible. Uh,

but, uh, but I can see Remco in yellow after the time trial. Yeah. I do think Remco is going to win that time trial. The only thing is, like you said about Simon Yates, I don't think it's impossible that Remco loses time, like in these early stages. He's not a great at positioning. Yeah, for sure. Yeah.

And like you look at stage four, like that's a really difficult end of the day. Like it's a total mess. So I think Remco, I don't know, like he's very good at not looking that good at the Dauphiné and then looking like he was so good at the tour last year. So I kind of don't want to count them out, but I think the positioning could bite them more this year than last year. Yeah, agree. Well, any other thoughts, Johann, before we,

that's I'm anxious to see how we, how we start tomorrow. And the ref you're in the U S the race is on Peacock, which also incidentally is where the move is going to be on after every stage. And then Johan has his Sir Wigo and Sir Wigo and Johan show, which I like the name. I named got a lot of heat on the move, but that's going to be just on the normal we do channels. And then we'll be on the normal WeDo channels for outcomes as well. And remember next bets.com backslash bet outcomes if you

want to see the best sign up offers for every book where you live. All right. We will talk tomorrow. You're on. See you later. Thanks. Speak soon. You