THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 10 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 13, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 10 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/ Hims: Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/themove for your personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary. Based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. 

It's an extremely hard stage. I would say, you know, probably not in terms of difficulty or elevation, but in terms of what the riders feel and how they approach this stage. It's probably the hardest stage of the tour. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guest may have financial interests in the bets discussed.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernal. We're predicting stage 10 of the Tour de France, a tough stage through the massive Centrale. The GC will be back. The GC battle will be back at the forefront, 165 kilometers long, I believe 4,500 meters of climbing,

which is many feet, up and down all day, like six categorized, six cat two climbs, seven climbs in total, tough 3.3 kilometer long, uphill finish. All this stuff, the odds, and then we'll get Johan and I's take on who's going to win and how it's going to play out. Taddy Pagatras, the favorite, plus 200. Ben Healy, plus 800. Jonas Veningard, plus 1000. Lenny Martinez, plus 1600. Roman Gregoire, plus 1600. Michael Storer, plus 2000. Nielsen Palace, plus 2200. It goes on

and on. We'll call them out if we need to. And if you're confused by those numbers or how to bet in general, we have a partner, NextBets. All you have to do is go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes, and it will show you where you can bet where you live and the best signup bonuses. So like for example, if you are in Colorado and you go to FanDuel and you open an account, you'll get $150 free dollars with your first bet. Same with DraftKings. I highly recommend checking it out.

But Johan, who is going to win the stage? Actually, the big question is how is this going to play out? I think it's unclear whether it's Breakaway or Peloton. It's very unclear. It's an extremely hard stage. I would say, you know, probably not in terms of difficulty or elevation, but in terms of what the riders feel and how they approach this stage, this is probably the hardest stage of the tour in terms of mentally approaching this and the suffering they will

go through. It's not the same like any mountain stage where you know, you kind of know what you get. There's eight climbs, seven of them are cut two climbs. They're all between three and 5k. Not super steep. So it's kind of accessible to a lot of riders. And so it's going to be fireworks. The second important day of this Tour de France, we had the time trial. This is the second big appointment where finally it goes into the hills, not in the mountains yet. These are hills, they're not mountains. But incredibly hard. You're going to get us drug into like geology debates now. Like the geology Reddit is going to be all over that. Yeah. But you know, I mean, it's, it's, it's possible there's a breakaway. Um, I would, I would, I would have said for sure a breakaway if there were

already a few decisive stages, hard stages behind us, if this stage, for example, is in the last week, it's for sure it's a breakaway. If this stage, for example, is in the last week, it's for sure it's a breakaway. Now with this being the first real uphill exam, I would say, I'm not sure. So I'm going to play it safe. And unfortunately, I have to repeat myself, but I'm picking Tadej Pogacar for the win at plus 200. Yeah. I mean, we could sit here all day and debate whether that is a good pick or not.

It's still unclear to me that I think these are ancient volcanoes, technically maybe mountains, but for all intents and purposes at this tour, these are hills because the mountain stage will be harder. You said something interesting to us saying like, well, isn't stage 18 harder? But you're saying this could be harder because everyone can, in theory, make it over these climbs. So there's no groupetto forming. It's just kind of going to be chaos. And it's going to be nasty.

Or I forget what Wigo said about the first part of this tour. But it will be that. Does he say gnarly? No, what is it? Dirty. No. Dirty. Yeah, dirty.

Someone who listens closer than us to our show can, can let us know, but it's not clear to me who's going to control this because UAE is banged up these must should not having said that I'm not convinced that these mom won't get to the front and control this because in their mind, Jonas has a special creatine enzyme who makes that makes him fatigue less than Tadej Pogacar. And they'll think'll think well we got to make this race as hard as possible. I think if they do that Tadej Pogacar wins.

I think this is simple as simple as Johan looking and saying I'm getting Tadej Pogacar at plus 200 on a profile that maybe is the best profile you could draw for Tadej Pogacar. So I think just don't overthink the situation and I'm gonna take him as well, plus 200. Yeah, well, which profile is not good for him? Well, is any bad in the high mountains, right? I honestly don't know which races they've been watching last year and this year, people who say that.

But it's true that for Pogacar, I think it's more in favor of Pulacar than in favor of Dengelgaard because he has that extra kick that Jonas doesn't seem to have on these stages. So normally if this plays out between the whole favorites, Jonas will try to follow. plays out between the whole favorites. Jonas will try to follow. I mean, he should actually start attacking already, I think, you know, he shouldn't, he has to start attacking. John Pogacar is in a great situation. If he follows, there's not that many guys he has to follow.

You know, he just has to watch one guy and maybe I would say Jorgensen, but is Jorgensen ever going to be in a position to attack when it's just Jonas and Tadej? So it's up to Jonas to attack, not Tadej, because if Tadej stays with Jonas, he wins. Yeah, I guess you could get, didn't we say the same thing about Isaac del Toro at the Giro and then that stage 20 debacle happened? So I guess that's different. Yeah. Yeah. But yeah, in theory, you're right. He doesn't have to attack the rest of this race. And there's an individual time trial that's up a mountain. So you'd think that he will extend his lead on people like Matteo Jorgensen

on that time trial. Let's say though, that it's not a Peloton finish is who else has a chance at this? Difficult, difficult to know on such a, on such a course. Um, there's not that many writers who, who have the legs and the capacity to, to get in a breakaway and then make it to the finish. But, um, I'm going to go, uh, he's a plus 1600 Lenny Martinez from Bahrain Merida, or is Bahrain Victorious. I think he's a guy who is a master in finding the right moves on certain days like this. He's lost already a lot of time, started to do really bad, was something strange that happened on day one.

He seems to have gotten into the rhythm, has a good track record of stage wins from breakaways. I've been told or I've read that he also wants to, his objective is the Poco dot jersey. Tomorrow is a great stage for somebody who chases the polka dot jersey, because there's many, many points. I've been told that he wants to get the polka dot jersey in honor of his grandfather, who's I think he's in his nineties now, in his eighties, probably. Mariano Martinez. So Lenny Martinez's dad is Miguel Martinez, who was also a professional

rider and was Olympic champion mountain bike. His granddad is Mariano Martinez, who won the Pogada Jersey in a Tour de France. And apparently he has some health problems and so he wants to get the Pogada Jersey. So at least that his granddad can, see his grandson winning the pocket of Jersey. It would be a nice story. Yeah, man. That's quite the cycling family. I love this pick. He's actually plus 1800 on Fandool. I'm jealous that you, you came on the zoom and picked them right away, claimed them for, especially for best a best deal day twist. Like if, if you think a French rider is really going to go hard,

I think the French riders are trying every day though. It's the only thing that's wrong with that. But he is a, he's a world-class climber who's not in the GC because of problems he had, but he showed us like a few stages ago that he's strong. You know, he was in that breakaway, was caught by UAE at the end of the stage, but strong rider world-class climber has won major stages recently, a big stage races. So all those things point to like, it's a very rare chance for a rider like that to not be in the GC to have freedom

to go. And also on the KOM, it's funny. I feel like we've talked so much about it. There's been so few KOM points so far that if Lenny Martinez wins the first two climbs of the day, he's in the KOM Jersey already. And if he, if he went goes on to win the stage, he's going to be like triple the points of Tim Wellens who's currently in the KOM Jersey. So I love that pick since you picked it, I can't take it. Another one that I'm not going to overthink though, Ben Healy plus 800 on Fandual. Like if it's a breakaway, this guy is so good at breakaways. Like I felt so silly. I hadn't picked him the other day.

EF is here for with one goal. That's to get into breakaways and win stages. So they're going to put their, they're going to probably put multiple people in that move. Ben Healy's very strong. There's very few riders actually that can win on this because this finish is so hard and to stay ahead of the nervous Peloton will be difficult. I'm going to go with Ben Healy. Good one. Well, let's take a quick break, Johan, and then we'll talk about the head to heads, which have been some of the most fun bets we've had so far. Everybody this episode is brought to you by hims. You might've noticed something about this Tour de France other than the riders

are all incredibly fast on their bike, but some of the best riders in the world have something in common other than that, it's fantastic hair. And we may never be as fast as them, but it doesn't mean we can't all copy their incredible heads of hair with HIMS. HIMS makes it simple with doctor trusted,

clinically proven treatments like finasteride and minoxidil, which are shown to regrow hair in as little as three to six months. You can choose from chewable spray serums, whatever fits your routine best. And the best part, it's 100% online. No office visits, no awkward pharmacy pickups, just answer a few questions and a licensed provider will determine if treatment is right for you. If it is, they'll ship it straight to your door discreetly and free of charge.

No insurance needed. One low price cop covers everything. The treatment, the shipping, and the ongoing medical support. Join hundreds of thousands of guys who've already used Hims to regrow their hair and get your confidence back with a visibly thicker mop up there. Start your free visit online today at hims.com slash the move. That's hims, H-I- at hems.com slash the move that's hems, H I M S dot com slash the move spelled out T H E M O B E

four year personalized hair loss treatment options. Results vary based on studies of topical and oral minoxidil and finasteride prescription. Prescription products require an online consultation with a healthcare provider who will determine if a prescription is appropriate. Restrictions apply, see website for full details and important safety information. All right, back to the show. All right. So we're back.

The, the, this actually was wrong today because Pagache finished one spot at a vingard. I think the fun is over on that, but it's Pagache. Before we had, before we get into head to heads, I would also like to recommend, just in case, Jonas Wengelgaard 125 for the podium. Because if it's not a breakaway, it's going to be between Pogacar and Jonas, and Jonas will almost sure be on the podium. So positive odds, I think, are interesting. I'm going to co-sign this one.

I'm taking this one too. I like this a lot because it's basically a way to bet. Will the breakaway win? Will the breakaway stay away or not? Because Vingard will finish on the podium. If the breakaway is not away. And even if like, let's say Lenny Martina stays away and Pogatra second, Vingard is going to be third.

So I'm going to pick that to a plus 125. But the, the, the book does not like Jonas Vinograd's chances against Tadej Pogacar because on Fandual it's Pogacar minus 450 versus Jonas Vinograd plus 300. Yeah. Well, the only way, the only way Jonas gets in front of Tadej, if there's a breakaway and they can't get rid of each other and the bonifications are gone and they just roll into the finish, which is also unlikely to happen because I still think that Tadej will try to drop Jonas

on that climb, even if the break is gone. Yeah. So, you know, with the minus five, four 50, I would, I would just not do that. You would not do it. You're passing. Okay. Mateusz Skalmoza minus one 86 versus Primoz Roglic plus one 38. It's pretty interesting one. I mean, Primoz is going to have to at some point get his stuff together.

Yeah. And he's healthy though. I mean, that's the thing about everyone's written him off. He's not fallen. He looks skinny. Like, no, this is no, no, no, no. He looks heavier than normal Spencer. I saw him doing that. Man, he's a skinny person. He looks, I mean, from the back, I personally think he looks heavier than normal. I mean, I may be wrong. Maybe it's the change of uniform, you know, maybe it's the white shirt and the,

and the blue shorts. Um, but anyways, you know, he's still, he's still Primoz Roglic. Um, that's crazy. He's the underdog. And let'simoz Roglic. It's crazy he's the underdog. Let's call for Roglic. OK, I can't believe he's the underdog in this. Even in his diminished state or malaise, whatever is going on with him. Julian Afelite minus 120 versus Nielsen Palace minus 110.

Hm. I kind of think this is difficult, because if they're not in the break, if they're not in the break, which they might be both in the break. Yeah. But if they're not in the break, it's difficult to say because they're not going to push. They're not going to push it to the finish. So who's the who's the favorite here? Julian. But the thing is today, Nielsen Palace finishes on the same time's the favorite here? Uh, Julian, but the thing is today, Neil St. Paul's finishes on the same time as the winner. Al Philippe is six minutes back.

I mean, that's a level of sitting up that that's extreme commitment to sitting up. Well, it's not just sitting up. He got caught in the crosswinds. Which would, um, yeah, he was in the back, you know? Um, yeah, let's go for Alaphilippe. But still, you know, he's going to be motivated. Adam Yates minus 126 versus Simon Yates minus 108. We should do this every day, by the way.

Um, hmm. I'll do Adam. I think Adam is the right choice, right? Because he is going to be needed at the front more. Yeah, he's very, very, yeah. Enric Moss minus 140 versus Carlos Rodriguez plus one of six. This is hard. This is is hard. This is really hard.

Yeah. Enric Mas. I think Enric Mas is way fitter than Carlos Rodriguez. Carlos, there's something not right with Carlos Rodriguez. Yeah, I agree. To lose as much time as he's lost already. It's funny you say this is the first significant GC day, and then I think Primozlic lost 31 seconds, two stages ago on not even

a mountain unlike borderline, not even a hilly stage, it's kind of unbelievable. But we'll see how it goes. You on anything else you want to add before we take off? All right. We will not be back tomorrow. It says I'm all messed up because we're recording on a Sunday, but we will not be back tomorrow. It's I'm all messed up because we're recording on a Sunday, but we will not be back on Monday. We'll be back on the rest day to predict stage 10, which happens after the stage 11 stage 11. This is stage 10. Holy smokes. I hope

I said that right in the intro, but yeah, we'll be back to stage 11 is actually super interesting. There's a little teaser there, so make sure you check in on the rest day to hear our prediction for that. Okay, thanks, Spencer. All right, bye. ["The Star-Spangled Banner"]