THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 11 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 15, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 11 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/ Manukora: Go to https://MANUKORA.com/THEMOVE to save 31% plus $25 worth of gifts Mint Mobile: This year, skip breaking a sweat AND breaking the bank. Get this new customer offer and your 3-month Unlimited wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month at https://mintmobile.com/themove. Upfront payment of $45 required (equivalent to $15/mo.) Limited-time new customer offer for the first 3 months only. Speeds may slow above 35GB on Unlimited plan. Taxes & fees extra. See MINT MOBILE for details.

That's the reason why Vanderpool is a good pick because he can be in the breakaway or he can win from the peloton. I'm going to go just a slight variation on that. I'm going to Wout Van Aert plus 600. I think in theory he can sprint fast as we saw the other day. He was one of the fastest sprinters in the race. He has some sort of, there's something happens when he's sprinting against Matthew Vanderpool and he seems to forget how to sprint.

But if we just assume Vanderpoel for some reason is not there at the finish, I mean, as you said with Vanderpoel, like both these guys can get over that climb even with the front group and would be very, very hard to beat in the sprint. So I'm going wow, Ben Art plus 600. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johann Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not

guarantee future results. Everybody, I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Bernil. We are predicting stage 11 of the Tour de France, 157 kilometers from Toulouse to Toulouse right after the rest day. Instead of the straightforward Toulouse to Toulouse right after the rest day. Instead of the straightforward Toulouse stage that's usually as print finish, we have some lumpy terrain around the city and then multiple climbs with a 10% average. Johan is saying even maybe 12% average, 8K from the finish into the city center for the finish. I will list off the odds and then we'll get

Johan's take on who's gonna win, how it's gonna play out. Matthew Vanderpoel is the favorite at plus 450. Wout Van Aert at plus 600. Jonathan Millon plus 1600. Kaden Groves plus 1800. Taddy Pagache plus 2000. I would be surprised if that happens.

Roman Gregoire plus 2200. Axel Laurence plus 2200. Quinn Simmons plus 2200. Binyam Gurmai plus 4000. It goes on and on. We'll call them out when we need to. But if you're still not like an expert in sports betting or you even want to check out the best signup bonuses in your area, make sure to check out NextBets.

That's nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes. We have a partnership with them. Navel show you where you can bet, where you live, where the best signup bonuses, like for example, you could bet $5 on Fandool in Colorado and get $150 free dollars to gamble with. So you cannot afford to not check this out in xtbet.com slash bet outcomes. Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? It seems probably like a breakaway stage, but, and then who do you think is going to win? Yeah, it's a difficult one.

If you look at the overall elevation, 1700 meters, it's very accessible for the sprinters after a rest day also. So I would assume that some of the sprinter teams will try to keep it together and hope that their sprinter can get over it. I'm thinking about probably like one of the sprinters that could make it over, if I have to name one, would be probably Caden Groves. Caden Groves, he's a solid rider. He usually gets better through the stage races. But I still think it's going to be difficult. There's seven climbs in the last 45 kilometers. And that last climb, it's 8, 900 meters. And it does say on the official profile, it does say 12.4% at steep. So, you know, if guys like, I mean, we'll see also, I mean, if it's together,

Bogacar would probably try there. I think it would be not wise to do that. Why would he? But still, a guy like Mathieu van der Poel, well, von Arth, Explosive R riders can probably drop the sprinters there. So I'm going to go for Mathieu van der Poel. The last time I checked, he was at 450. I don't know if you find him anywhere better than that, 500 maybe somewhere. Especially because Mathieu van der Poel can be in the breakaway. And if it's still all together, he can, he can, he will be in the front on that last climb. And if some riders, some sprinters don't make it back, he can win in the sprint also. So Mathieu van der Poel is my favorite

to win the states tomorrow. He's plus 450 on Caesars. I, yeah, the logic is sound. I agree with you that the only thing that I can't quite figure out is there's a sprint point pretty late in the race, like a hundred KN and it's a short stage. So that's 57 K to the finish line.

Basically Milan kind of needs those points because he's not that far ahead of Pagacha and Pagacha is going to start racking them up here in the next few stages. So either little check will control or Milan will get into the breakaway to get those. That's the reason why Vanderpool is a good pick because he can be in the breakaway or he can win from the Peloton.

I'm going to go just a slight variation on that. I'm going to Wout Van Aert plus 600. I think in theory he can sprint fast as we saw the other day. He was one of the fastest sprinters in the race. He has some sort of, there's something happens when he's sprinting against Matthew Vanderpool and he seems to forget how to sprint. But if we just assume Vanderpool for some reason is not there at the finish, I mean, as you said with Vanderpool, like both these guys can get over the climb even with the

front group and would be very, very hard to beat in the sprint. So I'm going wild, Ben Art plus 600. Yeah, that's a good one. I think you can't compare what Van Aert in the tour against Mathieu van der Poel versus, you know, other occasions in classics, right? I think what Van Aert is a Tour de France rider, he usually gets to his best form during the tour. So I'm not even excluding if Van Aert is there and Van Der Poel is there in his sprint. I think Van Aert gets it.

And we know that Wiesma will not have an issue with him going in the breakaway, so he'll be active. I'd assume Van Der Poel is gonna do the same thing. Wiesma won't, but we'll train a vingegaard. He'll be okay with it. Can you imagine Simon Yates as DMs? She must have been upset with them. But if it's not one of these two, I mean, the danger is it's a breakaway. Both these guys are there. Multiple people get over the climb or they get over the climb with each other and they

start staring at each other. There anyone else who could win? Because that is how someone else would win. Yeah, it's a possible scenario. And even from a breakaway, if both of them are in the breakaway, it's still no guarantee. It's probably going to be easier if they're in a breakaway because they could make a smaller selection on that last climb, right? Those two riders. But if it's still together, I'm going to pick, I mean, and even from a breakaway, Romain Grégoire from Rupaama FDG, plus 2200. He's been trying a few times. My only doubt a bit is, is he still as fresh as the first three, four stages? Because the first three, four stages, he was really, really good. We're stage 11 now. It was a break.

It was a rest day today. So that could obviously be in his favor, but there are some really tired guys already. So still, I think Romain Grigoire is the type of rider who could win the stage. I mean, I feel more tired on this rest is the type of rider who could win this stage. I feel more tired on this rest day than I have at any point during this tour. So if these guys are anything like me, they're going to be struggling tomorrow. He's 22 years old, pretty young. I'm going to go with another young rider, similar vein, Quinn Simmons, 24 years old

plus 2200 for the win. We saw on Monday that he was incredibly strong and assuming George Hincapie has freed him from his teamwork at Little Trek, he'll be out there in that break. Even if it's a, I mean, I don't think he'll be working for Jonathan Milan on that final climb. I think he'll just be trying to follow the top guys over

and he is a knack for getting away at the end of stages like this. So I'm going Quinn Simmons was 2200. Okay. But that's, yeah, I think, I think, you know, he showed, he definitely showed his, his, uh, his strength yesterday. You know, he has really good legs. Um, he's eager for a stage win.

It all depends. It depends what, what little track wants to do tomorrow with, uh, with Jonathan Milan and if he's going to be on duty or not. Um, he could be in the break with Milan. I mean, yeah, I guess they could, they could burn them controlling the stage, but I, if I was little check, I'd prefer to have him up there with Milan for the emery is intermediate sprint. Yeah. And the problem is Spencer in it's the Tour de France and half the peloton wants to go

in the breakaway tomorrow because they know what's coming in the next three, four days. Yeah. It's going to take forever for that thing to get going. You know, the last American to win a Tour de France stage in the national champions jersey? Bradley Wiggins knew the answer to this. I was the last American to win a stage in the tour in the national championship jersey. In the national championship jersey. Jonathan Boyer? Lance Armstrong. 1993. I didn't know.

Yeah, in the Vosges somewhere. Yeah, I remember. Okay, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, I didn't get that one either. He looked at me like I was an idiot. Well, let's take a quick break. I was in looked at me like I was an idiot. Well, let's take a quick break. I was in that race. So actually I should have known. He beat Raul Alcala. It was his first year pro, right? It must have been like 20. It was 93. So his second year. Yeah, first year pro. Yeah, first full year pro. Yeah. That's pretty impressive. Yeah. Wow.

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See Mint Mobile for details. All right, back to the show. All right, Johan, so your daily head to heads, you did pretty well last stage. So let's see if you can continue your hot streak. The first one, I don't think this one should be picked, but I'll leave it up to you. Wout Van Aert minus 116 versus Matthew Vanderpool minus 116.

I think you're better off betting on both of them that win the stage. Yeah. Yeah. So Tim Merlier plus 300, Jonathan Milan minus 450, pretty interesting one, especially if you consider Milan might be in the breakaway. Yeah. But normally Milan always finishes ahead of Merlier in this one, whether it's from a break

or if it's in the spare, if it's together. I guess Merlier won't care. Merlier won't make it over the climb. Yeah. And Milan will have it over the climb. Yeah. And Milan will have to fight for everything. Yeah. Minus four 50, I guess we have to go with him. Remco Ebonopol minus one 72 versus Primoz Roglic plus one 126. I pretty much didn't look mad yesterday.

I'm starting to feel better about Primoz bit by bit. Not for the win, obviously, but for a good tour to France, finally. I'm going to go Primoz. I like that. He looked really good yesterday. He's not crashed. I feel like, I guess we're part of the media So we're part of the problem, but you know, one's talking about that

We have an uncrashed primos 10 days into the tour like that podium. Don't don't write them off for that podium Tadej Pagachar minus 220 versus Jonas Vindegard plus 162 Jonas Interesting all right. I like that. William Grimai minus 172 versus Paul Penhoot plus 126. I don't know. I just, I mean, it's just hard for me to think that the sprinters will make it over those seven climbs. They probably won't, which makes this even more interesting. How do they finish in the pack?

Yeah, well, I mean, if they don't make it, then it's basically a lottery. Then I guess you should pick Paul, right? Because if it's a lottery, if it's a coin flip and he's better than 100, mathematically that's the one you should pick. Yeah, open way. Okay. All right, anything else before we take off

and prepare for tomorrow's stage? I'm going to bed because I have an early wake up tomorrow and I'm going to do the France. That's pretty exciting. So I will report from there to you guys. So you'll be at the finish tomorrow in Toulouse? I don't know. Maybe. Could be. And then you'll definitely be at Otakam. I'll be at the start of the stage. I'm not going to the finish on Otakam because I have still nightmares from my days to make

it back down. I was going to say it's a total trap. It could take two to three hours to get down from that climb. So no, I won't go up. I was going to get to Isla 2000 last year and I didn't go at the last second. And the people that went is these guys told me they didn't get back until 2am. It is. It's just one way up one way down.

I mean it is a disaster leaving these summit finishes. Yeah. All right. Well, thanks, Johan. We will be back tomorrow to predict the Otom stage, stage 12.