THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 12 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 16, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 12 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

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That's Talkspace.com slash military. I think it's obvious, Spencer, that the heavy favorite is Pulacar. If it's the big guys fighting it out amongst each other, I just don't see how Pulacar doesn't win this, except if, of course, he has unforeseen complaints of his unfortunate crash today. But I'm still going to go with Pulacar, plus 100 UW money. I think it's worth it. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Joh Johann Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice.

Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Berniel. We're predicting stage 12 of the Tour de France, the first real mountain stage to Otakam. There are two, I guess, four categorized climbs, two major climbs, one count one, and then the HC climb finish at Otakam 13k long at 8% average. Pretty tough climb, 180k stage in total. Starts off flat for the first,

rolling to flat for the first half. So that will actually complicate how we predict this all this off the favorites and then we'll, we'll pick who's going to win. But before I do that, remember if you want to bet, go to our partner next bets, that's nxt bets.com slash bet outcomes. They have where you can bet legally in the place where you live as well as the best signup bonuses. So, for example, in Colorado, if I go set up an account on FanDuel and I bet $5, I get $150 free on top of that. So it's a great deal, hard to pass up.

Make sure you check it out, nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes. The favorite for the stage, these are very steep odds. Tadej Pogacar plus 100, that means he has a 50% chance of winning according to the betting market. Jonas Vindegaard, plus 300. Mateusz Gellmoza, plus 1600. Remco Evenepoel, plus 2400. Tymon Arendsben, plus 2400. Lenny Martinez, plus 3600.

Santiago Butrago, plus 4000. Simon Yates, plus 4000. Michael Storer, plus 4000. It goes on and on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. And remember, if a rider is plus 100, that means if you bet a hundred dollars, you get a hundred in profit. So you return 200 totals total. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out?

Breakaway or GC and who do you think is going to win? Yeah, Spencer. So first of all, I want to acknowledge for our listeners and our viewers. I am doing this from my cell phone because I'm in Toulouse. I'm actually at the Tour de France right now. And yeah, I got reminded of the quality of the Wi-Fi in this part of France. So I have to do it from my phone. So I hope the quality is still acceptable.

But I think there are two scenarios. Either the GC guys fight it out. In order for that to happen, the teams of these guys need to keep it together for more than 120 kilometres. And those 120 kilometers are not necessarily the hardest ones. So that means that a breakaway will form, probably a big breakaway, with probably also some really good riders like time trial is the heavier guys who can get far away is the heavier guys who can get far away in the first 120k. So anyways, it's two hard climbs. Col du Chalors is quite hard, about I think nine kilometers at almost 8% and then 12 kilometers and then Otakam is super, super hard. That's a horse category climb. So whoever is in the break needs to have good

climbing legs to stay in front. But I think it's obvious, Spencer, the heavy favorite is Pogacar. If it's the big guys fighting it out amongst each other, I just don't see how Pogacar doesn't win this, except if of course he has unforeseen complaints of his unfortunate crash today. But I'm still going to go Pogacar plus 100 UW money. I think it's worth it. I agree. I'm also picking Pogacar. What would he have been without the crash? That's a question. Would you have been like negative 400 to win this stage? I frankly think it's a question though, is he winning by 20 seconds or a minute or two minutes? Like I, I think they've been waiting for

this. I think he's ready. He got embarrassed by Vinnegard and Wout Van Aert the last time he was on Otakom. He's going to be motivated. I mean, to me, it's he's got to be thinking like enough is enough. Like we, it's just been miserable racing. He's got Visma attacking him. He's crashing cause guys are swiping in front of his wheel. Like, he's just got to get elite. Like let's just in this race as soon as possible. He can end it tomorrow and Friday if he does well in the time trial.

I think he's going to try to do that. My only concern. So I'm picking Bogacar at plus 100. I think however, Spencer, I mean, especially now looking at the circumstances of what happened today with the crash, I think Bogacar wins, but with a small margin. Because ultimately, it's Jonas Lingergaard who needs to try to drop Bogacar. That's a good point. to drop Bogacar. That's a good point. Once there are the two of them, what are they going to do? They're going to be just stalemate and let everybody come back. They're going to have to relay each other at 80% if they get ahead with the two of them, which independently,

whether it's a breakaway or not, they will race a Hota Kam amongst each other. And so, yeah, I mean, I think if Pogacar wins, considering what happened today, he's probably not going to win with a big margin. He doesn't have to. No, actually, if Pogacar can't drop Bindegarde, it gets really interesting, really fast, because in theory he doesn't have to pace at all because he's already going to be winning. Assuming they drop Benhealy, Vindegarde's not ahead of Remco Evenepoel.

At some point he has to overtake Remco, so will he have the probably won't pull? Will he feel like he should? And then, Johan, if they stall out on this thing and they finish in a group, the biggest winner of the day is Primoz Roglic, because then he's going into this uphill time trial. No one's taken advantage of his weakness at all. He could be soaring back, as George predicted. I do think Pogacar wins. My concern, though, is this is a lot like a pop quiz.

Who won the Finestra stage in this year, to tell you? It wasn't Simon Yates like you you remember, like everybody remembers because Chris Harper was up the road and he got a big gap in a similar type of terrain to this. I am concerned to move is going to go and build up just such a big gap that they can't pull it back. And in theory, Visma will have to make the race really hard on that first climb because if they don't nothing they've done up to this point makes any sense. So we have to assume they're going to blow the race up on the cold is so lower.

It makes it hard on the solar. It's also a lot more difficult for a breakaway to stay away because on Hota Cam, you can, I mean, if you've been out there for over the whole day, you can lose five minutes, you know, on Hota Cam. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So you'd have to have a gap of like seven minutes

at the base. If the first climb, first big climb is raised hard, it's hard to imagine that happening. If someone does, they're going to have to be a very good climber. I think it's not even worth betting on lesser, or I guess like lesser candidates in the GC group in the top 10, because how do they win?

Like if Pagacho doesn't win, Vindigrad's going to win. So I'm going to go time and Arendsman from the breakaway for my wild card. He is priced at plus 2400 on FanDuel and I'm picking them because he's strong enough to get into the move on the flats, which is going to be hard and then survive all the way all day out there on the flats and then climb well enough to stay away. There's not many people actually that fit that bill and I'm going to go with the Arnstman because in theory he is really strong. We saw he is strong. He got second the other day to Simon Yates. He's one of the, I think one of the only riders with a mixture of skills that could feasibly stay away.

Yeah. He was good the other day. He came back almost to Simon Yates. That was really impressive, actually. Since you've picked him, I'm going to pick a similar rider, actually a rider who was with Arden's mom and at some point with Simon Yates, Ben O'Connor for the stage win from a breakaway. He's now already 11 minutes 50 behind NGC, so not a threat anymore. And so this is a guy that has the power to go in a breakaway on flats and still have

the climbing skills to maintain. We've seen it already many times. Ben O'Connor pulls something off like this after disappointing NGC, he bounces back and then gets a stage win. I think tomorrow could be a good day for him. You actually want a really similar stage to this. Remember stage nine of the 2021 tour to Tinnia? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And he gets just so good at,

he can get in these breakaways and then he really shines when he's away like that. He has so much power. It seems like that's not always there when he's in the group, when he's in a breakaway, like we saw last year at the vault of the guy can just, just jam, but let's take a quick break and then we will go through your head to heads for the day. This podcast is supported by the real real me, Christine. She loves shopping.

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plus free shipping. That's IQBAR.com promo code KELOR20. Okay, Johan, we're back. Our head-to-heads for stage 12. If you're not familiar, it is you get a price and then if so and so finishes ahead of so and so it pays out of that price. The first one, this is on Fandl in the US, Pagache are minus 220 versus Jonas Vendegaard plus 162. This is actually a really tough one.

Yeah. Yeah. Still Pagache. And this is kind of the truest of it because of a breakaway stays away. This is like when this break, that when this bet would pay off and they probably will sprint. They probably will contest the line here, even if a break is away. So you're not just like betting if Finnegan rolls over the line in front of Pogacar. I think they're going to keep track of the end to the top each other.

Yeah. Next one, Remco having a pull minus 330 versus Primoz Roglic plus 220. I'm surprised by this line, to be honest with you. I think because of the odds, we're of have to go, uh, pretty much. Yeah. It's funny cause RIMCA is not considered like, you know, the Pyrenees is where he lost. He couldn't defend his welter title. If you remember where he got, was that tourmalet stage?

Yeah, still. I mean, it's, it's the tour. It's different. It's a different place, but I think it's, it's, it's been a long time since Primos hasn't crashed in the tour. He's silently and slowly getting more to the front. Tomorrow is a good stage for Primos. I'm going to go for Primos over Ramco. Yeah, I think he, I actually have been surprised at how good he looks and how he has not crashed.

When's the last time we saw that? So Ben O'Connor minus 172 versus Mateusz Skolmoza plus 126. O'Connor. All right. Yeah. Something's not quite right with Skolmoza. He must be sick or something. I don't know. Yeah. Florian Lipowitz minus 160 versus Mateo Jorgensen plus 118. How much is Lipowitz?

Minus 160. So you bet 160 to win 100. Yeah. Yeah, let's go for Lipowitz. They went head to head at the Dauphiné, right? Yeah, but Jolinson was not in disappointing form in Dauphiné. It's a lot different shape now, a lot better. And then this one is kind of an interesting one. Oscar Onley minus 186 versus Tobias Holland Johansson plus 138 Oscar only All right

All right, well best of luck at at the stage tomorrow Johan will be excited we'll be looking for you on the side of the road I'm gonna go to the start just you know greet a few ex-colleagues, ex-directors, and then I will be on the Col du Souleur. Exciting. Well, let's hope Tadej Fagacar wins and if not, Ben O'Connor or Taimun Arunzin, because we've been on a cold streak. We've got to get back to winning some of these things. Okay, Spencer. Thanks. All right. Have a good evening. Beautiful Anonymous changes each week. It defies genres and expectations. For example, our most recent episode, I talked to a woman who survived a murder attempt by her own son. But just the week before that, we just talked the whole time about Star Trek. We've had other

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