THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 13 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 17, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 13 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

Very straightforward. Tadej Pogacar. So yeah, he's my pick. There's nobody else in my opinion. After what we saw today, Spencer, and the Mountain time trial. I think the books are right, you know, even at minus 560. Yeah, I can't see anybody else winning than him. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage 13 of the Tour de France. It's an 11 kilometer time trial up a mountain pass, which is unusual. All this off the favorites and then we'll get Johann and I's take on who's going to win the stage. Before I do that, if you are interested in sports betting, remember or betting on this race that we're talking about, remember we have a partnership with NextBets

and to check that out, you go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes and they'll show you the available books, where you live, the best signup bonuses. For example, if you live in Colorado and you go to Fandool and you open an account and you bet $5, you get $153. So I might recommend betting that $150 on whoever we pick today because it is going to be one of the most predictable stages of the tour.

The favorite, the market reflects that. The favorite is Tadej Pogacar. This is the best price I could find by the way. Minus $560. I've never seen that for a stage at a stage race, I believe. Jonas Vindegard second at plus 500. Florian Lipowitz plus 2200. Remco Evanepeol plus 2200.

Primoz Roglic plus 8000. Felix Gall plus 10,000. I don't think we need to keep going. Johan, who do you think's going to win this thing? Very straightforward. That they pull out your, so yeah, he's my pick is nobody. There's nobody else in my opinion. Uh, after what we saw today, Spencer, uh, and, and a mountain time trial.

I think the books are right, you know, even at minus 560. Yeah, I can't see anybody else winning than him. It's, you know, at 10.9 kilometers all uphill, basically all uphill. What could make him not win this stage Spencer? Choice of wrong equipment maybe? You know, I don't think you could ride a Brompton and win this thing. Well, you know, I mean, there's these talks what they're going to do or some of this, there's some rumors about people going to ride the time trial bike.

I've heard Remco's riding his time trial bike. Jonas will probably ride his time trial bike because he was, you know, I mean, maybe after today he changes his mind, but then I heard a journalist ask the director of Tadej Pogacar, what are you going to ride today, tomorrow, normal bike or time trial bike? And the guy said, we will decide tomorrow at the start. So I'm sure that's true. Yeah. They haven't thought about it yet. So no, I mean, Bogacar wins this venture it's after today's demonstration,

you know, even physically listen, even if physically you're going to ask is better tomorrow than today, which is possible. The mental blow he got today is like he got knocked out, you know? Yeah. You don't recover from that in, you know, in one day. He physically looked off too. I mean, I also am picking Pogacar to break the suspense.

Can you tell, you're in the Pyrenees right now. Can you tell us a little bit about the climb? They do the pair of sword, but then they take a detour like towards the top, at the top, and they go up an incredibly steep altiport, I guess is what it's called. It's almost a vertical runway. Yeah, well, I mean, it's, it's, it's, uh, so it's the Paris Sourde coming from Loup-d'Anville. Uh, and they don't go to the top of the Paris Sourde. Just a bit before the top, they take a right.

Uh, it's a little bit more flattish, I mean, still uphill, but not so much. And then they have this last stretch of this mountain airport. And for people who have been following cycling the last few years, this is exactly the same climb where Pogacar won with an unbelievable lead out of Brandon McNulty. Yes. Brandon McNulty, Pogacar and Jonas. This is the climb.

So it's the pay resuit basically with an extension of two and a half kilometers to the top of the airport. The last one and a half kilometers are really very, very, very, very steep. So it's, what is it? Is it seven and a half or 8%? The average? So the last five K are 8.1%

like after they make the right turn. And so the last K is like 16% average once they hit that runway. It is so steep. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I can't quite wrap my head around this. Maybe on the paras?

A time trial bike would be faster. Lance was unconvinced by this in the podcast today, but man, the last five K at 8%, are you really faster on a time trial bike? Not in my opinion. No, I maybe think- But then again, Spencer, listen, you know, I was at the start today, right, of today's stage,

and I talked to the UAE director, Machin, because I saw all the bikes there exposed, with the numbers on, so there were all the aero bikes, and he said there exposed, you know, with the numbers on, so there were all the aerobikes. And he said, yeah, you know, they're not that much heavier, 300 grams heavier than the normal bikes. And it's been proven that, you know, they're faster, even at lower speeds.

I mean, anything that gets, you know, close to between 18 and 20 kilometers per hour, it's noticeable already. Uh, and so we're going to see those aerobikes more and more. Um, Jonas Winkler was riding his aero bike also today. So, um, no, you're going to be alone, which they did because they probably had that attack planned at the bottom. Yeah. So in that case tomorrow, for example, I could see I'm still, I mean,

I mean, obviously they've tested it. They've, they've done the, they've done the test and, uh, Remco, for example, I think Remco is probably the rider of the whole Peloton who spends the most time on his time trial bike. He may feel comfortable enough to use that bike if they can get the weight down. Obviously there's not going to be disc wheel in the back. I think it's going to be light profile wheels, but the lightest possible wheels. It kind of makes sense if you think that the new data now say that whenever it's around 20 know, around 20 kilometers or, you know,

they're going to go fast faster than 20 kilometers an hour on, on much of this time trial. Um, so that could, but I'm still, I, I think, I think, I think, I know, I think the normal bike. Well, I don't think we're gonna pick wild cards for the stage win because we just can in good conscience recommend anyone bet on anyone.

Because today we saw an uphill time trial and we saw a domination from Pogacar. The interesting thing though, I think, is to then figure out well, someone has to finish second and third on the stage. We saw today, Jonas Vindegaard, he might've gotten crushed by Pagaccio, but he's still pretty good uphill.

I think he probably finishes second. I'm not gonna bet on him because his odds are one, this is for the podium, minus 1,115. So no thank you. Okay, no, that makes no sense. But is there another rider who you think is gonna round out that podium on the stage? Yeah, well, you know, if you look at the top three now, so it's Pogacar and Jonas and Remko,

top three. I've seen a guy today who's coming up and he's improving and he's in this upward proving, and he's in this upward trend now, Florian Lipowitz of Red Bull Bora. I'm going to pick him to be on the podium tomorrow. It's 1.10. If you analyze his last climb, I think he did the best of everybody else. The last three and a half kilometers, hardly lost any time on, on the Pugacar. So, um, I'm going to pick him for the third spot to be on the podium for running lip widths. Yeah. I think we crunched the numbers.

He lost zero seconds in the last three K to Pugacar. That's pretty good. The guy's flying great climber plus one 10. I'm going to, I'm going to zag here because of the time trial bike X factor. And it is a flat ish opening 3K of the stage. I'm gonna go rimcoeventable plus 120 for the podium. We saw him with one of the strangest rides I've ever seen today being dropped twice,

dropped on the penultimate climb, which means he had to invest a lot of energy to chase back on, gets dropped at the bottom of the final climb, still is a decent climb. Finished his seventh on the stage. That kind of convinced me like, this guy might be pretty good in an uphill time trial, especially with 3K of like his preferred terrain to start.

He's gonna gain a lot of time at the start of the stage. I think he could finish on the podium here. So I'm gonna go plus 120 for Remco Evanopol. finish on the podium here. So I'm going to go plus 120 for Remco Evanopol. Yeah, I mean, it is his preferred exercise, although it's a mountain time trial, but it's still an individual effort. So he can ride his pace.

And I actually think that Remco, you know what I mean, he looked bad there for a moment, but afterwards he kind of did a pretty good ride. You know what I mean? The way it looked on the Sulaw, let me tell you, Spencer, where I was, Remco has just gotten dropped.

I thought he was going to lose 10 minutes at least. It wasn't like, it looked like he was like waiting for him. Like Remco couldn't even keep up with his teammate. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So he kind of recovered, did a great descent and the next climb that got to climb, he did really well and defended quite okay on I mean, the proof he's still in third place. So I think that's it

didn't look that way on the floor when I was when I was standing there. So, you know, probably he had he took some motivation out of that and and can answer with a good result tomorrow. And it kind of doesn't start to go against them until about three K to go. And then it tips maybe away from his favor. But before that, it's, I think it's flat enough that he might be flying on that time trial bike if he's on it. Someone asked us like, what, how do we weight these?

So if a favorite is a unit, like one, I've been doing wild cards for this tour at point two. So if we put a hundred dollars on a favorite, we put $20 on a wild card. But you can play around with that as you see fit. One, that's been a good option for us at this tour because a lot of the favorites have been winning, not so much the wild cards.

If you're at a Giro d'Italia and a lot of wild cards are winning, maybe it's better to go one on the favorite and 0.5 on the wild card, but one to 0.2 has worked well for us this tour. Let's take a quick break. Then we're going to do some head to heads. Johan, we'll be right back. Okay. This is on Fandool in the US.

Florian Lipowitz head to head against Remco Ebenapol. Lipowitz is minus 172, Ebenapol plus 126. Based on what I've saw today, Lipowitz. Right. Next one, Oskar Anli minus 186 versus Tobias Holland-Johansen plus 138. How did only do in the tour of Swiss? Yeah. Good question. He was pretty good, no? He was third in that time trial and this has been proving to be a pretty

predictive race so far. Yeah. Oscar only. All right. I mean, this is actually kind of freaky. It's Felix Gall Almeida crashed out. So he was first, Gall second, on least third, Kevin Buckland, fourth, Harry Sweeney, who's been amazing as fifth. So that's a freakishly predictive race. Primoz Roglic minus one 86 versus Kevin Buckland plus one 38. 138. Hmm.

Primos. I'm going to pick real socks today or tomorrow. We don't know. Taddy Pagato. What was that man? I don't know. That was, I kind of wonder if he forgot his socks and he just had those to wear. This one makes no sense. I'm just reading it so people don't bet on it.

Taddy Pagaccio minus 700 versus Jonas Vintergaard plus 410. I would think you would just bet on one of these because these are worse odds to win the stage. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, no, no. It makes no sense. It's too much money to, yeah. Because if Vintergaard is going to beat Pagaccio,

he's going to win the stage. So just bet on him at plus 500 or whatever to win the stage. Um, Ben O'Connor minus one 26 versus Carlos Rodriguez minus one away. These two guys are in the break and they both finished on their knees today. Yeah. How much did they lose? O'Connor was today 1043 back. Carlos Rodriguez, 1231.

Hmm. The question is now Spencer, now that they're out of the GZ, are they even going to go fast tomorrow? Don't, don't you think you want to save yourself and try to go in the break and try to win a stage? Makes no sense to go. I mean, tomorrow this, that's the problem of a time prop tomorrow. Tomorrow there's 10 riders are going to go full gas.

Everybody else is going to take it. I mean, not easy because there's going to be a time cut, but still, I mean, I have to be really, still to be out of the time cut. So anyways, Carlos Rodriguez. All right. I'm no confidence in either one. Before we go, I thought this one was interesting.

This is to win a stage, just any stage before the end of this race. Jonas Venedegaard plus 175, Wout Benart plus 350, Mikheil Kievkowski, who I did not know was here, plus 410, Shkomuza plus 410. And then Florian. He's not, he's not.

He's not in the race. Don't bet on that one. Florian Levoit's, that's kind of weird. Kievkowski's not in the race. That's a trap. That's free money for the book. That's just trying to see Kovsky's not in the race. I, I, I, yeah. That's a trap. That's free money for the book. That's just trying to see if you're paying attention. That's actually pretty, pretty bad that he's on there.

Florian Lipowitz plus 650. Do you think any of these riders are going to win a stage before the end of the race? Lipowitz can win a stage. Plus 650, Lippewitz win a stage, I'm putting it down. I would say he has a better chance than Jonas Finnegar to win a stage. But Jonas is going to have to rely on the goodwill of today to let him win a stage. Yeah.

Yeah. He's not really done that in the past like remember you could have let him win easily 2000 last year or no, it was the stage after that but I Don't know maybe maybe after they waited for him. Maybe that that's why they waited They didn't they wanted to be gifted a stage at the end of the race All right, well thank anything else, Johan, before we take off. I need to go to bed, Spencer. It's one o'clock in the morning.

Get to bed and get back to Madrid in the morning. That's gonna be a tough day. Okay, thanks. All right, bye. You