THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 14 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 18, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 14 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

The record is within reach here the all-time record for stage wins like he has he has to do well Well, yeah, okay. Well, that's I don't think that's really on his mind Spencer. I You know what what may be on his mind is, you know being the first writer since Eddie Merck's to win all three D jerseys Green yellow and then pocket out. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is outcomes Outcomes is for informational back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Berniel. We are predicting stage 14 of the Tour de France.

One of the hardest mountain stages we've had so far, which isn't saying much because we've only really had one mountain stage, but probably one of the hardest mountain stages in the race period. We go over the Col du Tourmalet to kick things off, 20 kilometer climb, Col d'Espagne, Pere Sord, and then finishes at Luchon Superbaniers, which is another extremely long HC climb. Not going to be an easy day. I'll list off the odds before I do that.

If you want to bet in you're confused how to do it, do not worry. We have a partnership with next next bets. Go to NXT bets.com slash bet outcomes. It will show you exactly where to bet, where you live and the best sign up bonuses and the best offers at each book. For example, you got a Fandual in Colorado, you open an account, you bet $5, you're getting $150 free dollars sent your way.

I would recommend, like I said yesterday, to put it on our favorite for today. The favorite for the books is Tata Pogacar at plus 110. Jonas Vendegaard plus 1100. Mateusz Skalmoza plus 1400. Sepp Kuz plus 1600. Simon Yates plus 2000. Florian Lipowitz plus 2200, Mateusz Skalmoza plus 1400, Setkoos plus 1600, Simon Yates plus 2000, Florian Lipowitz plus 2200, Timon Arntsman plus 2200.

It goes on and on. For example, if you don't know what we're talking about, plus 110 would mean if you bet $100, you win $110 of profit, which is probably exactly what I'm gonna do. But Johan, how do you see this plane out and who do you think is gonna win? As you say, Spencer, it's a hard stage, you know, it's 180 kilometers,

five thousand meters of elevation. And especially two monster climbs to the Malaise course category from the long side. So, you know, there's a debate. I had a debate with Bradley about it. Actually what he thinks is the, he thinks this is the hardest side. I remember the other side being the hardest side from from la manchie it depends how you look at it it's super long tourmalet super high and then we have a span and we have paid a suit which is part of what they did today and

then super Baniere which is also a very hard horse-calf recline. So taking that into account, I don't think it really matters much if there's a break or not, unless there's a really, really, really stop fire in the peloton and there's like 20, 30 guys up the road and they get 10, 15 minutes. And even then it's going to need to be a really good climber to make it over the tour model and then, and then super one year with those two other climbs in between. So, um, I'm afraid I have to say it's going to be today again, plus one 10. He's my pick for doing.

Yeah, it's good pick. He's my pick as well. I actually can't believe he's plus one 10. The reason I'm so convinced it's that day is not because people want to challenge today. This race is pretty much over the way it is currently, but we saw a man by the name of Remco Ebonopol do very, very bad in the second and third section of today's time trial, still in third place overall. People want that third place spot. The team I think about Red Bull needs something from this tour.

Big, big team. They're going to drill it on the tour Malay cause they're going to try to drop Remco as early as possible, put them in trouble. And they're not going to want that break. That breakaway is going to get caught because people will be pressing the pace trying to get that third place spot. I think it all ends up. I don't even think Pagache really even tries to win the stage. I think it just gets close and I don't even think Pogacar really even tries to win the stage. I think it just gets close and he puts him,

he's going to put Neils Pollard on the front, Neils Pollard nails it back and he's going to win the stage. It's hard actually to imagine any, anyone else winning. I have two thoughts about that Spencer, what you said, the Red Bull drilling it, you know, first of all, they're going to drill it with who, you know, they have Lipowitz and Primos. So they need to get make sure that they get over the Tourmalet.

With, you know, spending the least amount of energy. It may actually be that they don't need to drill it. Because you know, knowing Remco, we all know he's in fantastic rider, right, but something may be up, something may be up. And once you get into that downward spiral, if Remco sees that tomorrow again, he doesn't have good legs and he gets capped, it's not gonna need a lot of drilling. And I think he's just gonna, just yeah.

Mentally, I think it's gonna be difficult for Remco because he's used to be in the front all the time. This is also bad memories for him. Remember there was a tourmalet stage in the Vuelta and he got dropped on the first climb. Yeah. Exactly.

It actually reminds me of the stage a bit. Right, that was, they finished on top of the tourmalet. Yeah. I mean, it's all that you know, it's kind of all the same roads, like he got dropped. Was it Sebs Kuss who won or was it Jonas who won? Jonas, Jonas, Jonas. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Jonas won. Um, but yeah, so, um, that's number one. And then secondly, um, I think what we should, you know, have in mind when we talk about that, this is going to be Pogacar.

I just read an interview of him where he said, you know, this is, you know, this is the Tour de France. There's no, no, you're not even a question of giving away stage. Whenever we can win a stage, we have to go for it. If I would give away a stage or let someone else win, my team and my sponsors won't be happy. I get paid to win.

Well, he's also going for the, the record is within reach here. The all time record for stage wins. Like he has, he has to do this. Well, yeah. Okay. Well, that's, I don't, I don't think that's really on his mind, Spencer. I, you know, what, what may be on his mind is, you know,

being the first rider since Eddie Merck's to win all three jerseys, green, yellow and polka dots. I'm actually surprised he hasn't done it before. Yeah. Yeah. Well, green, I mean, green was, I guess he's never been close to green, no? Um, yeah, it's all. Yeah. Mark's 1969 was the last writer who did that. The difference is that back then there was not a white Jersey competition yet, but he was also the best young writer. There was no, there was no, just no Jersey for it, but he would have won all four jerseys.

You know, those are the things that they may be looking at. Yeah. Well, I mean, yeah, I mean, you know, another stage, the record, I don't think, I just think that he just wants to win all the time, for no reason, for no reason. He just wants to win. He likes to win. That's what he's here for.

I mean, you do make sacrifice. We think of him as a fun loving guy, but you make sacrifices to be in as good a shape that he's in. Like he's not gonna come here and be like, you know, and Neal's Paul, it's away from his family at altitude camp. Like he wants me to win. Like this is what we came to do.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that's what he says. And also he says, because the journalist asked, well, you know, you're not afraid to make too many enemies. He said, well, you know, it's not my purpose to make enemies, but he says, you know, once I finish my career, I will have my friends and my family. And I'm not going to, never going to talk anymore with 99% of these people here. That's the anti George right there.

It's funny. We're even having this conversation with, did anyone ever say like at the height of Cavendish, like, oh, he shouldn't try to win this stage. Or did anyone ever say like at the height of Cavendish, like, oh, he shouldn't try to win this stage. He's winning too much. No, I don't ever recall that being talked about, but that's different because it's a sprinter. You know, he's not dominating the event actually, right? This is different because Bogatja is actually owning

the whole event. He's owning the tour, right? A sprinter is different. I mean, he's gonna win every stage probably. We'll talk about that a little bit more later, but he's gonna win every Jersey. You're gonna win every stage probably. We'll talk about that a little bit more later, but he's gonna win every Jersey. Maybe he could win every stage. That would be, if he was in the breakaway on Sunday,

winning the stage, that could be a little egregious. The yellow Jersey getting clear. They'd probably let him go because they're all racing for second and third. But if Bogotso does not win, I think it has to be breakaway. I don't think anyone from the GC group can beat him. And we saw this movie in the Alps last year. Like he's just going to mow them down when he comes to the finish line.

I think it has to be breakaway. Who do you think could stay away and win if they get in the breakaway? Yeah, not easy. Not easy. They have to have a lot of time, but I think I could see a guy like Simon Yates, for example, he's already won a stage, so he could get his second stage win. And in that case, it will also fit the situation

because if Simon's in the break, he could potentially have an excuse of saying, hey, you know what, I have my team behind, you know, we have a plan. Yeah. Not work too much. And Visma could say, okay, let's get safe for our money and go for the stage win, right?

Because so, and on top of that, I saw that Simon Yates took it really easy on the time trial. Really easy. Might be for a reason. So Simon Yates at plus 2000 is my wild card to win from the breakaway. Yeah, it's not a bad pick. You could imagine that happening. He would need a lot of time, but he does have the excuse.

And I think on the stage like this, people were asking about the units. Like I would bet a unit on Pagacha and then like 0.1 on the breakaway. So that'd be like a hundred dollars and then $10 on your wild card, if not five. I'm picking someone really just because of the price and the fact that they were the fourth fastest climber on the climb section of the time trial today.

Luke Platt plus 10,000. Wow. I don't know where that ride came from, but we did see him getting a breakaway at the Giro and win. It's not, I mean, he has the engine to win. I'm acknowledging it probably won't happen, but if you just think about riders with the ability to physically get up the climbs

in front of everybody tomorrow and his team, I mean, his team did this at the Giro with Chris Harper on the hardest stage, so it's not inconceivable. And also Luke Plop himself, also Luke Plop himself at the Giro with Chris Harper on the hardest stage. So it's not. And also, and also Luke Blob himself, also Luke Blob himself, and he also won a stage. So the guy has a big engine. That's for sure. And so, yeah, I mean, if he, if he gets in the break and yeah, I mean, this ride is for a reason, you know, this performance today is for a reason.

So he must be in really good shape. Yeah. Someone wrote into the move. I didn't have time to read the question, but they're like, why would Luke Plapp even try on this time trial? Probably. I mean, Bradley was saying like, these guys are warming the legs up. Like if they're going hard, they have other, they're thinking about the following mountain stages. So it does indicate he's thinking about getting in the breakaway. It would be huge man for him. What do you think? Yeah.

Team J.Cole needs a stage win. They do. They do. Yeah. I guess like, but even finished today and he's like, yeah, I can't get the stage win. So that tells us that he's thinking about later in this race. Let's take a quick break and then we'll do head to heads, which you aced yesterday. Pretty good. You don't see that very often.

And then I have a question about the points Jersey. All right, Johan, we're back. Head to heads on FanDuel. Ben O'Connor minus 116 versus Carlos Rodriguez minus 116. We had the same one yesterday. Who do you think wins this matchup? Let's see. Rodriguez was actually his first.

He was not terrible today. No, no. So I'm gonna go Carlos Rodriguez. Okay. Ben Conner will probably be in the breakaway. Probably driving. Another thing also Spencer, what we need to have in mind, you know, for tomorrow. Yesterday for Hota Cam, we saw extreme high temperatures. It's not going to be the case

tomorrow. It's a lot cooler tomorrow. A lot cooler. Okay. I noticed today the high was like 22 or something. Yeah, it's going to be the same more or less. Um, and even less. So that is some people probably can't deal with the extreme heat. I don't know if Ben O'Connor is one of those, but, uh, you know, he, he was in the break yesterday and got dropped way too early. Um, I mean, yeah, Rodriguez did a better time drop, but not that much. You know, he, he was 33 seconds faster. Uh, no, actually, you know, a little bit more, a little bit more.

So yeah, Carlos Rodriguez over Ben O'Connor. Okay. And then this one, another one don't bet. This is like, I don't know why this is on here. This is a total trap. Tati Pagache versus Jonas V Vindegaard just bet on, and it's minus 700 versus plus 410. Just bet on one of them to win the stage.

Yeah. And if you think it's going to be a breakaway, then bet on it. You think it's going to win from the breakaway and hope they win. Primus Roglic minus 235. Actually, I don't know. To revisit that, let's say a break wins.

They'll still race to the top of that climb. Yeah. It's still going to be Pogacar. Yeah, it's still going to be Pogacar. So Primus Roglic minus 235 versus Felix Gall plus 172. Primus. Yeah, Primus for sure. That guy's going for the podium.

Tadej, put it. I hope you put your socks on tomorrow. Sure. That guy's going for the podium. Taddy, put it. Oh. I hope you put his socks on tomorrow. I heard that might've been a Dan Bingham special. Cause that Dan Bingham- Didn't really work that well. No, well, maybe he didn't overheat yesterday cause of the socks and that's why he was so good today.

Florian Lipowitz minus 450 versus Remco Ebenapal plus 300. Florian. Yeah. Oscar Onley minus 186 plus Tobias Hollen-Johansson plus 138. Oscar Onley. Oscar.

Yeah, Oscar, I'm gonna reach out to you on Instagram. We're gonna try to get you on the show. You're our new favorite rider on the move. He, yeah, he took 50 seconds today on Johannesburg. I know. He is, guys, that tour of Switzerland is like an oddly predictive race in retrospect. So before you go, when we had a little debate

on the move about this, but I think Jonathan and Milan personally is in big trouble in the points classification, because it's not gonna be, it's not like they're not rolling into these sprint finishes and doing a casual sprint. Like the breakaway is going to be fighting hard to get away and they could eat up these points Milan is minus two 90 to win.

Tadip Pagachar. This is your pick from the beginning of the race that you got him at plus 700. He's at plus three 60 right now. I'm thinking about betting on them. What do you think about that price? Yeah. Yeah. I think about that price? Yeah. Yeah. I think, I think, I think, I think Bogacar wins the green.

I think so too. I think the books have not correctly weighted this. I don't think they understand how hard it's going to be for Milan to score points from here on end. Yeah. Yeah. And even these like flat stages are quite tricky. And it's like even the Champs-Elysees might not be a sure thing for sprinter. Oh no.

Yeah. I mean, it's different. That means different than the Olympics, you know, but, uh, yeah. How far is it from the moment from the master to the Charles? Did it to the finish on Charles? It is a actually I wrote it. 10 K or something finish on Charles it easy. Actually, I wrote it. 10 K or something or recently it is.

And they go straight there. I think it is like 10 K. Like it's not, they, they just plunge straight down to the finish. Yeah. The thing is, Spencer, you know, the thing is, it's, you know, after three weeks, the Peloton of the tour man, there's not going to be much fighting for position there. You know, like, it's not like the whole bunch is gonna be.

Yeah, yeah. You know what, whatever, do whatever you want. We're out of here. Luke, do a dive bomb in corners. It's actually shorter, it's only 6K to the finish line. Oh wow, okay. Yeah. Wow, that is gonna be an interesting stage to watch.

Are you on anything else before we take off? No, that's it. All right, thank you, and we will be back tomorrow.