THEMOVE - Tour de France Stage 15 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Episode Date: July 19, 2025

Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin reveal their picks for tomorrow's Stage 15 of the Tour de France. Listen in to see how the duo thinks the action will play out, who will come out on top, and which riders present the best betting value. Use our special link to see where you can bet in your area and claim the best sign-up offers https://nxtbets.com/betoutcomes/

I cannot think of any other scenario than breakaway. You know, especially after today's stage, sprinters, I don't think sprinters can make it. It would take a big effort from a team to keep this together. And especially with that cat to climb, which is, I mean, it's not it's not long. It is, I mean, three kilometers, three kilometers at 10 percent, three kilometers at 10 percent Three kilometers at 10%. There is no sprinter who makes it over time.

And you keep going up after that. And you keep going. So yeah, this is Breakaway. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin, along with Johan Berniel, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource.

Host and guest may have financial interests and effects discussed. Pass performance does not guarantee future results. financial advice, please gamble responsibly. And if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Passed performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johann Berniel. We are predicting stage 15 of the Tour de France,

169 kilometers to Carcassonne, the classic Tour de France transition stage going into the rest day, 2,300 meters of climbing, sprint point about two or one third of the way through, which will be critical. All this stuff, the odds, and then we will predict who we think is gonna win. Wout Van Aert is the favorite at plus 600,

Matthew Vanderpoel at plus 800, Quinn Simmons at plus 1600, Kayden Groves at plus 2000, Arno Delea plus 2200, Victor Campenaerts at plus 2200. It goes on and on, but Johan, well, before ILeah plus 2,200, Victor Campenaerts at plus 2,200. It goes on and on, but Johann, well, before I kick to you, Johann, if you guys, if anyone listening wants to bet and they're confused about how to do it, remember, go to nxtbets.com slash bet outcomes.

You'll see where you can bet, where you live and the best signup bonuses for each book. So even if you're like me and you're already betting, maybe there's some signup bonuses on a book I'm not, I'm not signed up for yet and I'm going to get free money. So I'm going to check that out right after the show. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? I assume breakaway. And who do you think is going to win? Yeah. Yeah, Spencer, I cannot think of any other scenario than breakaway.

You know, especially after today's stage sprinters, I don't think sprinters can make it. It would take a big effort from a team to keep this together. And especially with that cat to climb, which is, I mean, it's not long. It is, I mean, three kilometers at 10%. There is no sprinter who makes it over time. And you keep going up after that. And you keep going. So yeah, this is Breakaway. Probably going to be a big group. 10, 15 riders probably. So I think we have to go to the usual subject, suspect Spencer, and I'm going

to pick Wout Van Aert at plus 600 to win the stage. I think Walt has been quiet the last few days. He obviously has this stage in mind and there was not much he could do in the mountain stages apart of going in a breakaway but he couldn't go in breakaways, definitely not on the Tourmalet. So I think Van Aert is in the breakaway, but he couldn't go in breakaways. Definitely not on the Tourmalet. So I think Van Aert is in the break tomorrow and winning the stage. Yeah, I think you're right. I think it's gonna be a breakaway.

I was thinking about today, because Taim and Aron's been won and I didn't pick them, and I had picked them in the past. And it made me realize, this happens every Grand Tour we do, it's always the same people in these breakaways and we pick someone that'll win. We don't pick them again. Some they win and we're like, Oh wow, we're so stupid. So I'm going to go Matthew Vanderpool at plus 800 because he's always up there and he will be up there tomorrow

and he may win. And at that price, that is probably a greater chance of him winning the not winning. And he has to be in the breakaway because now he's committed to the green Jersey fight. So obviously not a sure thing. Van, Van Art could win, but I'm going to go Matthew Vanderpool. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, we don't, if they're both in there, we don't, I mean, and they

come together to the finish. We don't know. Also we're noting Spencer a breakaway with both of them in there is definitely not a guarantee that one of them will win. Because, you know, they're the heavy favorites, and there's going to be anticipation and they have to carry the weight of the breakaway. Because everybody's saving a little bit when they're in there. But I think those two are the big two favorites. Well, then I'm not sure. I agree. Like what we saw just a few days ago, right? Where they're both up there. Quinn Simmons

attacks them. Vanderpoel. I mean, the thing I still am impressed by Vanderpoel chasing, like just dropping Simmons, chasing down, almost chasing down the, uh, Aubur Hansen and the fellow. Yeah. Marlon Schmidt and not even knowing they were up the road thinking he was off the front. So imagine if he knows the race situation, how good he could be. Yeah. Well, he knew at the end, he knew, right. In the end, he knew I spoke. Actually, when I was at in, in Toulouse, um, I, um, I spoke to Audrey, to his dad. And he told me the story that, uh that initially when he attacked from that, he thought that was an attack for the win because the guys he had in front,

he thought that those were the guys and that he was going to catch them. Then he came over and he saw more motorbikes over there and then saw those two guys in the distance. So he knew that it was going to be very difficult. And I guess it doesn't really matter, right? Because if you're away, you're going to go really hard. If you're chasing someone, you're going to go really hard in that situation. So probably didn't actually cost them, but you're right. I mean, they, it is tough for these guys when they're in there, which brings me to my next question. If they get marked out of this move,

who benefits and who wins? Well, I'm going to pick another, and who wins? Well, I'm going to pick another guy who's really, really riding really strong for the moment. Another Belgian and also a guy on Wismar, Victor Campenaerts, plus 2200. He definitely has the form to be in the break. If he has the freedom, and I guess he will have the freedom from Wizema during the break, he could be the one of those guys who's good enough and could even take advantage of the, you know, presence of Van Aert or Van der Poel. Let's say for example, if Van der Poel is in it and Van Aert is not and Victor is in it. I think he has a chance to get away.

He definitely has a chance. That guy is an incredible form. Remember he won a stage. So a little later, but it was not dissimilar to this part of the race last year. Yeah. And he won it from a sprint. So he doesn't have to go solo. You actually could imagine him clipping off the front winning at plus 2200.

That's pretty good. But I'm going to go, as I said, it's going to be the same people. Quinn Simmons has been up there. Quinn Simmons is looking good. Quinn Simmons is plus 1800 on FanDuel. I'm going to pick him to finally come through and win a stage. Yeah, I had a chat with Quinn when I was there and I told him, you know, I told him that he, he, he should be very confident because he has a stage win in his legs and the way he's running now.

So, uh, so yeah, I, I backed that choice completely. Before we go to our break, the only thing that concerns me about Quinn Simmons, and then I'm curious to get your take on it is how on it is how is a sprint point going to be managed? It's like 60 K in, you know, when I'm on the move, George and Lancer, I was like, the sprinters are going to go for it, but it's going to be pretty tough to control 60 kilometers worth of attacks for a little trek, right? Tomorrow is definitely different. Today was different because you know, you have a big climb. Yeah, you kind of know that you're not going to go to the end. So any breakaway that went on the flat knew that there

was going to be extremely difficult to get four big climbs tomorrow is different tomorrow the break that goes can make it to the end. So I personally think it's going to be extremely difficult to control. So I'm gonna guess that Milan only has one choice. He has to go in the break. And Quinn will probably be there too. Yeah. So that makes me feel better about Quinn Simmons. I don't even think they're going to try to control it because I don't think they can control it. They didn't even really try that hard today. It just worked out for them. You're right too, because today, if you know you have the legs to win, you know you can get away

on the tourmalet. So you're not going to burn bullets. I pick loop plop immediately out there on the front on the fastest part of the course. And I thought, Ooh, I don't know about this pick. Maybe wait for the massive climb that's coming up to try to get away. But let's go to a quick break and then we will go through your head heads. All right, Johan, your head heads, you got all but one right today, yesterday, however, whatever day it is, that's impressive. You're on a heater here. Let's keep it going. This is on Fandle in the US. Ben O'Connor minus 116 versus Ben Healy, the battle of the Bens minus 116. Tomorrow, definitely Ben Healy. I mean, bends minus 116 tomorrow definitely Ben Healy I mean he'll

be in probably be in the breakaway he's he's a guy we should actually consider for stage win also you know I mean Ben Healy will be in the break tomorrow I mean I mean almost positive the only thing is he's he's so good at getting in breakaways he's like climbing he's in the top 10. Is he now in the top 10? He's 9th overall yeah. Okay that's not good because he's 19 minutes back though so you're like what happened? It doesn't matter that's irrelevant because the 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th are gonna you know if he's in the break who, who's intent is it Carlos Rodriguez? Yeah.

And eight and seventh. Eight is Johansson who's like seven minutes in front of six minutes in front of him. Phyllis Gaal is in front of Johansson. Okay. Yeah. That's okay. He has a chance to be in the break. Yeah.

Cause if you, if the break wins by three minutes, he doesn't even move a position, which is it's crazy how spread out our GC is. Listen, let's add Ben Healy as a wild, like, uh, the way they say the wild card of the wild cards, it's plus 4,000. Yeah. I mean, he looked fricking strong today. Like he finished, uh, in one of the hardest stages of the race, seventh.

Impressive from Ben Healy. All right. Caden Grove. So Ben Healy, Caden Grove's minus two 60 versus Alberto Dianese plus one 84. Caden Grove's. All right. Julian Alaphilippe minus one 26 versus Clamou Champoussin minus 108. Champoussin has been very anonymous the last few stages, right?

So I mean, it's going to come down to who is in the break. Because those that are not in the break, they're not going to insist, you know, it's going to be, they're probably going to get dropped on that cat to climb three kilometers, 10%. I don't think anybody else is going to insist there. So let's go for Alaphilippe. Okay. Funny aside on Champouzane, just because he's on Astana, we spent all this time in Astana, spent all this time figuring out how not to get relegated.

And then we find out two World Tour teams are merging for next year. So there's going to be an extra spot. It's going to be good for Kofidis. Yeah. I mean, unless, unless, you know, Axis. We should keep an eye on that actually. Yeah. I mean, unless, unless, you know, access, we should keep an eye on that. Actually. Yeah.

Is it uno X is not, especially if they topped into this race is not too far out of there, Wout van Aert minus two 60 versus Arnaud de Lee plus one 84. Wout. All right. And then. All right. And then Matteo, aka Matthew Vanderpool, minus 235 versus Quinn Simmons plus 172. I think I'm gonna have to say Matthew. He's just...

And Quinn Simmons could be in the break and get away. And everybody's watching. Mathieu. So, but logically it should be Mathieu. That's it. He also, I'm still, I still am on your side on who's the more talented writer, him or Waw van Arp, but he's very talented. And sometimes I feel like in Grand Tour's focus is an issue, but now he's locked in

on green and like focus will not be an issue. Like so he will minimum be in this breakaway and probably finish top five because he wants those points. Yeah. Quinn Simmons. I mean, he's just, I feel a little less confident in his ability to like automatically make a breakaway. Well, I mean, listen, when had, when Simmons has already given a lot, you know, he's he

spent a lot. I mean, he's been in a lot of breaks. He's been working. Let's not forget, he's still super young. But you know, obviously a better resistance. He's a stronger, more, more, more, I mean, more endurance athletes, because he's doing it so many years. So I think in the last week that comes to the forefront, you know.

Yeah. All right. Well, do you have anything else, Johan? That's it. All right. Let's take off and we will not be back tomorrow. We'll be back on the rest day to preview stage 16. Okay.

Thanks. All right. Thank you. Bye.